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Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Maurice Jones-Drew Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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This one should be interesting. I think he stays healthy, and his demise has been written way prematurely. The guy is a beast.

 
was shocked to see how young he still was considering he has been in league 6 years. just turned 26, this little beast has 2-3 more years of elite production still in him IMO

 
A lot of wear and tear on MJD, and the Jaguars now know that they have a high-quality backup in Jennings, so it doesn't make sense to give MJD the same sort of workload he's been shouldering for the past two years.

260 att, 1,120 yds, 8 TDs

40 rec, 400 yds, 1 TD

 
Thought I'd bump this up. If MJD's knee is healthy and he slips in drafts he'll be a steal.Rotoworld blurbs:

For the second straight day, Jaguars.com's John Oehser suggested the offense won't be as "dependent" on Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) this season. Oehser reiterated that Rashad Jennings' workload will increase "to take some of the load off Jones-Drew." Oehser also concedes that the status of Jones-Drew's knee will be a major issue at the onset of training camp.
Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter insists the Jaguars' coaching staff has had no discussions about limiting Maurice Jones-Drew's (knee) workload this season. Koetter believes Jones-Drew "gets better the more he touches the ball." Neither the coaching nor the medical staff has seen MJD's knee in months, so there's every reason to believe that stance is subject to change. Jones-Drew was somehow given the impression that the Jaguars are "scared" and "skeptical" about his knee. We should have a good idea on the status of that knee after a few days of training camp.
Maurice Jones-Drew reported to Jaguars camp on Wednesday, and assured reporters on hand that his surgically repaired right knee is "fine."
Maurice Jones-Drew is being limited early in Jaguars camp as he returns from offseason meniscus surgery on his right knee.
MJD had a nice run of monster games (7 straight with at least 100 rushing, 120+ total yards) late last season before being shut down for the last two games. He still managed 1,641 total yards and 7 TDs on one knee. Jones-Drew is young at 26, and has only had one 300+ carry season in his career in 2009 (granted 299 last year), but other than that he hasn't accumulated too many touches.I do think the Jaguars will lighten his workload a bit with Jennings, but this guy is still a great player. MJD's risk is being overstated.290 carries for 1,247 yards, 40 receptions for 320 yards, 12 TDs.
 
The thing I keep thinking about MJD is the fact that he was never healthy last year. He came into camp with rumors of knee issues and then played through them all season. In his own words:

"Last year, I played on one leg – I have two now.”

“Put it this way: why would I tell you guys I have a knee injury so you guys can go out and tell every team to go lock on it and take shots at it?” Jones-Drew said. “If you listen to my (radio) show this off-season, all I’ve done is tell the truth. That’s how it is.

“The reason I didn’t tell you that is I didn’t want you guys to go out and tell the Colts or certain other teams, ‘Oh, his knee is hurt.’ Now, it doesn’t matter. I’m fully healthy.”

So if you look at it that way, the injury news is actually kind of a good thing.

 
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A lot of wear and tear on MJD, and the Jaguars now know that they have a high-quality backup in Jennings, so it doesn't make sense to give MJD the same sort of workload he's been shouldering for the past two years.260 att, 1,120 yds, 8 TDs40 rec, 400 yds, 1 TD
Wear and tear? only 1 year over 300 carries. Remember until 2009 Taylor vultured a lot of touches.
 
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MJD's overall yardage numbers for 2010(1641)look similar to his previous year(1765)but his TD's dropped from 16 to 7. In most fantasy scoring system that equates to 54 points. Jacksonville game summaries seemed to indicate that MJD was frequently stopped near the goal line. Red Zone inside runs require that extra strength to push through the bodies stacked along the LOS. This is where the weakened knee would have its greatest impact. He may not have had the overall opportunities to score that he had the previous two seasons but he certainly didn't take advantage of the situations in which he did.

MJD is still the man with the killer instinct and drive to succeed. Jennings will likely be given opportunities to spell Jones-Drew on occasion but this is still MJD's team. We should look for another solid season out of this Jacksonville running back.

295 carries 1,300 yds

42 receps 350 yds

12 TDs

 
Any updates on MJD from Jags fans?
He's back pracicing and took part on 11v11 drills but won't play this week.
Thanks. As a local, what do you think about him this year?
Hard to tell. He was on sirius over the weekend saying that he was lighter and feeling better than last year. But who ever says their knee feels like cr@p this time of year? He has a decent backup in Rashad Jennings(who won't play FRI either). Don't know if the Jags try to lighten the load at all.
 
He is worth a late first round pick this year. No question. PPR backs are far and few in between these days.

1500 total yards 10 TD's 45 Receptions.

A solid pick at his current ADP which has been the late first round in 12 team mocks. I may even take him at number 8 and take a shot with Nicks or VJax on the way back in the second round.

 
So, I'm assuming that you guys aren't afraid of Jennings taking too many touches away/MJD staying healthy?
Nope, im assuming Jennings gets about 25% of the workload and it helps MJD. MJD: 290/1400/11 and 45/400/3Jennings: 100/500/6 and 30/350/2
SHAZAM!!!!! :shock: I had DMC over him as my first round pick. Now I'm not so sure what to do.
I have DMC at RB9, cant go wrong, only reason I have charles ahead of DMC is because I think Jamaal has a higher ceiling, but I think DMCs floor is much higher.
 
So, I'm assuming that you guys aren't afraid of Jennings taking too many touches away/MJD staying healthy?
Nope, im assuming Jennings gets about 25% of the workload and it helps MJD. MJD: 290/1400/11 and 45/400/3Jennings: 100/500/6 and 30/350/2
I didn't check, but I'm assuming with those numbers you have MJD finishing top 3?
5-7 range. He only played 14 games last year and put up like 40 less yards and finished 13th overall. He was nursing and injury all year, still found a way to put up 1350+ and 7 Tds.
 
You are making a convincing case. It is so hard to pass on him late in the first. Risk? Sure, but if that pays out, what a home run.

 
I am all in on MJD this year in a number of leagues. He has slipped a little as people are scared about his knee. I am a little, of course. But he is a gamer, and I

have full faith that he has prepped well for this season and done what is necessary to bulk things up to try and keep his body moving. I am a realist and believe that

Rashad Jennings will take a little more of the touches away this year than last, to keep MJD healthier. With that said...

240, 1224, 10 TD

40, 356, 2 TD

 
MJD is a poosay. Next time he wants to call Cutler out, the beotch should be ready to take 50+ sacks in a year. Otherwise, he should focus on playing when he is hurt instead of being out.

 
So..no one has pointed out that he faces potentially having a rookie qb? That there is no reason for defenses to stack 8-9 in the box? MJD is definitely a man. This situation is similar to last year, so at least he can produce with nothing around him. However, I think the td's will stay lower (than normal) because this team probably wont move the ball too well.

280 carries

1200 rush yards

40 rec

360 rec yards

9 total tds

 
So..no one has pointed out that he faces potentially having a rookie qb? That there is no reason for defenses to stack 8-9 in the box? MJD is definitely a man. This situation is similar to last year, so at least he can produce with nothing around him. However, I think the td's will stay lower (than normal) because this team probably wont move the ball too well.280 carries1200 rush yards40 rec360 rec yards9 total tds
If the rookie win the job then he's better than Garrard right? Someone mentioned earlier didn't he produce 1,641 total yards and 7 TDs on one leg last year with 8-9 in the box?
 
So..no one has pointed out that he faces potentially having a rookie qb? That there is no reason for defenses to stack 8-9 in the box? MJD is definitely a man. This situation is similar to last year, so at least he can produce with nothing around him. However, I think the td's will stay lower (than normal) because this team probably wont move the ball too well.280 carries1200 rush yards40 rec360 rec yards9 total tds
Theres almost 0 chance Gabbert starts over Garrard.
 
So..no one has pointed out that he faces potentially having a rookie qb? That there is no reason for defenses to stack 8-9 in the box? MJD is definitely a man. This situation is similar to last year, so at least he can produce with nothing around him. However, I think the td's will stay lower (than normal) because this team probably wont move the ball too well.280 carries1200 rush yards40 rec360 rec yards9 total tds
Theres almost 0 chance Gabbert starts over Garrard.
Yes, but by week 10, he may.
 
So..no one has pointed out that he faces potentially having a rookie qb? That there is no reason for defenses to stack 8-9 in the box? MJD is definitely a man. This situation is similar to last year, so at least he can produce with nothing around him. However, I think the td's will stay lower (than normal) because this team probably wont move the ball too well.280 carries1200 rush yards40 rec360 rec yards9 total tds
Theres almost 0 chance Gabbert starts over Garrard.
Yes, but by week 10, he may.
Barring injury I cant see any reason for it.
 
'Sweetness_34 said:
MJD is a poosay. Next time he wants to call Cutler out, the beotch should be ready to take 50+ sacks in a year. Otherwise, he should focus on playing when he is hurt instead of being out.
Well, now that I've read this, there's no way I draft this guy. I appreciate your frank and objective observation on what you think MJD will do on the field in 2011. Excellent insight here...
 
I am confused as to the level of downgrade MJD is getting in some circles, he seems to be the popular pick to bust this season for some reasons. The injury is a reason for concern at this point but no information I've seen so far suggests that it's a reason for MJD dropping as far as he has in some rankings. He played last season on a wounded knee and still put up decent numbers, the off season surgery might actually be a reason to raise expectations, not lower them as he has stated that his knee feels much better this season.

Some have expressed concerns about Jennings and Karim taking carries from MJD. Keep in mind MJD was a top 10 fantasy back when Fred Taylor was still the starting RB in Jacksonville. From 2006-2008 MJD never has more than 197 rushing attempts in a season and yet still produced almost 4,000 combined yards and 38 TDs over that 3 year stretch. So even if his attempts drops to the 250 range, there's still every reason to expect solid RB1 production.

Maurice is the clear lead RB on a run first team who has proven over 5 seasons that he can deliver top tier fantasy production even with limited carries. He is 26 years old and should be entering his prime. I understand the there is some reason for caution with his knee situation, but many people seem to be going way overboard.

 
I am confused as to the level of downgrade MJD is getting in some circles, he seems to be the popular pick to bust this season for some reasons. The injury is a reason for concern at this point but no information I've seen so far suggests that it's a reason for MJD dropping as far as he has in some rankings. He played last season on a wounded knee and still put up decent numbers, the off season surgery might actually be a reason to raise expectations, not lower them as he has stated that his knee feels much better this season. Some have expressed concerns about Jennings and Karim taking carries from MJD. Keep in mind MJD was a top 10 fantasy back when Fred Taylor was still the starting RB in Jacksonville. From 2006-2008 MJD never has more than 197 rushing attempts in a season and yet still produced almost 4,000 combined yards and 38 TDs over that 3 year stretch. So even if his attempts drops to the 250 range, there's still every reason to expect solid RB1 production. Maurice is the clear lead RB on a run first team who has proven over 5 seasons that he can deliver top tier fantasy production even with limited carries. He is 26 years old and should be entering his prime. I understand the there is some reason for caution with his knee situation, but many people seem to be going way overboard.
:goodposting:
 
FWIW, I'm not concerned about Gabbert starting being a downgrade to MJD. When HASN'T he faced 8 men in the box? Besides as some have mentioned, he would actually have to outperform Garrard in order to start especially with JDR's job potentially at risk.

To me, the order of importance in MJD concerns are:

1) Knee

2) OL, especially RT

3) Knee

4) Workload for Jennings

5) Knee

6) Passing game

 
I am confused as to the level of downgrade MJD is getting in some circles, he seems to be the popular pick to bust this season for some reasons. The injury is a reason for concern at this point but no information I've seen so far suggests that it's a reason for MJD dropping as far as he has in some rankings. He played last season on a wounded knee and still put up decent numbers, the off season surgery might actually be a reason to raise expectations, not lower them as he has stated that his knee feels much better this season. Some have expressed concerns about Jennings and Karim taking carries from MJD. Keep in mind MJD was a top 10 fantasy back when Fred Taylor was still the starting RB in Jacksonville. From 2006-2008 MJD never has more than 197 rushing attempts in a season and yet still produced almost 4,000 combined yards and 38 TDs over that 3 year stretch. So even if his attempts drops to the 250 range, there's still every reason to expect solid RB1 production. Maurice is the clear lead RB on a run first team who has proven over 5 seasons that he can deliver top tier fantasy production even with limited carries. He is 26 years old and should be entering his prime. I understand the there is some reason for caution with his knee situation, but many people seem to be going way overboard.
At 26, he isn't entering his prime, he's clinging to the last of it.
 
'Sweetness_34 said:
MJD is a poosay. Next time he wants to call Cutler out, the beotch should be ready to take 50+ sacks in a year. Otherwise, he should focus on playing when he is hurt instead of being out.
Well, now that I've read this, there's no way I draft this guy. I appreciate your frank and objective observation on what you think MJD will do on the field in 2011. Excellent insight here...
Its sweetness...insight should never be expected.I think MJD is a good value play...but obvious with that value, comes some risk.Id go for about 1300total yards and 10 TDs this year as a conservative prediction.
 
I love MJD, but I am extremely averse to selecting RBs coming off knee surgery on bad teams anywhere near the early part of my draft. Talent wise, he's top 5 easy, but he won't fall nearly far enough for me to grab him this year. Too many healthy stud alternatives for me in the early rounds, even if at other positions. He admits to lying about his health last season, so why should I trust what he says now? I hope I'm wrong b/c I'm a big fan of his, but my gut is screaming stay away.

 
I am confused as to the level of downgrade MJD is getting in some circles, he seems to be the popular pick to bust this season for some reasons. The injury is a reason for concern at this point but no information I've seen so far suggests that it's a reason for MJD dropping as far as he has in some rankings. He played last season on a wounded knee and still put up decent numbers, the off season surgery might actually be a reason to raise expectations, not lower them as he has stated that his knee feels much better this season. Some have expressed concerns about Jennings and Karim taking carries from MJD. Keep in mind MJD was a top 10 fantasy back when Fred Taylor was still the starting RB in Jacksonville. From 2006-2008 MJD never has more than 197 rushing attempts in a season and yet still produced almost 4,000 combined yards and 38 TDs over that 3 year stretch. So even if his attempts drops to the 250 range, there's still every reason to expect solid RB1 production. Maurice is the clear lead RB on a run first team who has proven over 5 seasons that he can deliver top tier fantasy production even with limited carries. He is 26 years old and should be entering his prime. I understand the there is some reason for caution with his knee situation, but many people seem to be going way overboard.
At 26, he isn't entering his prime, he's clinging to the last of it.
Other notable 26-year-old RBs:Adrian PetersonShonn Greene (in 2 days)Rashad JenningsDanny WoodheadBJGEAnd next month: Chris Johnson
 
I am confused as to the level of downgrade MJD is getting in some circles, he seems to be the popular pick to bust this season for some reasons. The injury is a reason for concern at this point but no information I've seen so far suggests that it's a reason for MJD dropping as far as he has in some rankings. He played last season on a wounded knee and still put up decent numbers, the off season surgery might actually be a reason to raise expectations, not lower them as he has stated that his knee feels much better this season.

Some have expressed concerns about Jennings and Karim taking carries from MJD. Keep in mind MJD was a top 10 fantasy back when Fred Taylor was still the starting RB in Jacksonville. From 2006-2008 MJD never has more than 197 rushing attempts in a season and yet still produced almost 4,000 combined yards and 38 TDs over that 3 year stretch. So even if his attempts drops to the 250 range, there's still every reason to expect solid RB1 production.

Maurice is the clear lead RB on a run first team who has proven over 5 seasons that he can deliver top tier fantasy production even with limited carries. He is 26 years old and should be entering his prime. I understand the there is some reason for caution with his knee situation, but many people seem to be going way overboard.
At 26, he isn't entering his prime, he's clinging to the last of it.
Perhaps "entering his prime" wasn't the best wording, but I don't think "clinging to the last of it" is accurate either. Top running backs don't decline at age 26 unless they are hurt. Obviously if MJD has a serious knee injury then his days may indeed be numbered. But it is not at all uncommon for healthy RBs to have their best seasons in the 26-28 age range.

Barry Sanders

Walter Payton

Emmitt Smith

LaDainian Tomlinson

Curtis Martin

 
I love MJD, but I am extremely averse to selecting RBs coming off knee surgery on bad teams anywhere near the early part of my draft. Talent wise, he's top 5 easy, but he won't fall nearly far enough for me to grab him this year. Too many healthy stud alternatives for me in the early rounds, even if at other positions. He admits to lying about his health last season, so why should I trust what he says now? I hope I'm wrong b/c I'm a big fan of his, but my gut is screaming stay away.
Bad teams? You wound me. But even so, the Jaguars had the #3 rushing attack in the NFL last season(while going 8-8), bad team or not I don't think that is a reason to devalue MJD.
 
With all this worry I am certainly going to try to acquire MJD in as many leagues as possible. At 26 he's worth the risk reward. Even in Dynasty. I think his lower body is strong enough and his center of gravity low enough to allow him to continue on physically for a year or two where other RB's would not be able to. If he's got 2-4 years left, I think he will be no worse than a high end RB 2.

 
I'm risk adverse, and I don't know if I can trust him. He only participated in 11 vs 11 drills for the first time on August 13th.

 
I'm risk adverse, and I don't know if I can trust him. He only participated in 11 vs 11 drills for the first time on August 13th.
OK and? You know his history and I can't overstate what has already been stated, look what he did last year on one leg.But just in case the shark play is to make sure you acquire Jennings too and you shouldn't miss a beat.
 
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Anybody worried about the Jags falling out of contention and Gabbert taking over at some point this season?

The odds of defenses stacking eight in the box at that point would seem pretty high and that could spell doom to MJD's prospects from then on.

 
Anybody worried about the Jags falling out of contention and Gabbert taking over at some point this season?

The odds of defenses stacking eight in the box at that point would seem pretty high and that could spell doom to MJD's prospects from then on.
Seems like teams have been doing this against Jacksonville for the most part anyhow.
 
I think the best leagues to go after MJD in are auctions. With all the negative group think going on about him, you should be albe to get him pretty cheap compared to other RBs in the 6 - 10 range.

 
Anybody worried about the Jags falling out of contention and Gabbert taking over at some point this season?

The odds of defenses stacking eight in the box at that point would seem pretty high and that could spell

doom to MJD's prospects from then on.
Seems like teams have been doing this against Jacksonville for the most part anyhow.
Welcome to MJDs career to this point. It's not like he has played with a bunch of probowlers on offense his entire career.
 
I'm risk adverse, and I don't know if I can trust him. He only participated in 11 vs 11 drills for the first time on August 13th.
OK and? You know his history and I can't overstate what has already been stated, look what he did last year on one leg.
He was RB14 in my PPR league last season on one leg. If you subscribe to the belief that he's now fully healthy then he should be viewed as a Top 5 pick in my opinion, which means he's quite undervalued right now. If you subscribe to the belief that he's still a very talented guy who is healthier than last season but still not what he was pre-injury than a slight improvement upon last season's production would seem to be what you should project. If that's the case then his current ADP (he typically is in the 7-10 range among RBs) seems about right. I'll admit I don't have a good handle on MJD right now. I like him a lot as a player but I'm also risk averse - especially in the first round - and I can't see taking him before the early going in the second round. I love the potential reward but until I see him get on the field for at least a decent amount of action I think the risk is too great that early.
 
I'm risk adverse, and I don't know if I can trust him. He only participated in 11 vs 11 drills for the first time on August 13th.
OK and? You know his history and I can't overstate what has already been stated, look what he did last year on one leg.
He was RB14 in my PPR league last season on one leg. If you subscribe to the belief that he's now fully healthy then he should be viewed as a Top 5 pick in my opinion, which means he's quite undervalued right now. If you subscribe to the belief that he's still a very talented guy who is healthier than last season but still not what he was pre-injury than a slight improvement upon last season's production would seem to be what you should project. If that's the case then his current ADP (he typically is in the 7-10 range among RBs) seems about right. I'll admit I don't have a good handle on MJD right now. I like him a lot as a player but I'm also risk averse - especially in the first round - and I can't see taking him before the early going in the second round. I love the potential reward but until I see him get on the field for at least a decent amount of action I think the risk is too great that early.
Hi Packersfan good to see you on here. Curious would you pass over him for Mendy, Gore, Forte, or DMC early in the 2nd round PPR? Mendy isn't a good pass catcher, Gore and DMC both have their history of injuries and play on sucky teams, and Forte has a rejuvenated Barbarian to vulture TDs. Which poison would you pick?
 

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