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Donovan McNabb, QB, Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

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Thread Topic: Donovan McNabb, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Donovan McNabb Player Page

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McNabb is coming to a team that looks to be in rebuilding mode, losing their star wideout in Sidney Rice, and picking up table scraps in Devin Aromashodu as a consolation prize. Closing in on 35, but looks to be much older in football years, he’s no longer a fantasy starter with his meager receiving weapons.

250/440/17/15 and 20/110/0, based on him being healthy enough to play at least 13 games.

 
It's still early, but TJAX's performance in Seattle seems to point to the fact that Minnesota made the right choice by grabbing McNabb.

Any thoughts on how long he holds the starting job before Ponder takes over?

 
I think McNabb holds the job as long as he plays decently. Ponder is in no shape to take over an NFL team, especially because of the lockout.

Minnesota's offense isn't the Redskins, and it isn't in total rebuilding mode. They still have a deadly run game and two decent receiving threats in Percy Harvin and Shiancoe.

I'm not saying McNabb is a viable fantasy starter, but he should make a good backup.

 
I think McNabb holds the job as long as he plays decently. Ponder is in no shape to take over an NFL team, especially because of the lockout. Minnesota's offense isn't the Redskins, and it isn't in total rebuilding mode. They still have a deadly run game and two decent receiving threats in Percy Harvin and Shiancoe. I'm not saying McNabb is a viable fantasy starter, but he should make a good backup.
What would you project him at for the season?
 
Last year McNabb played in most of 13 games and was on a 16 game pace of 338/591 for 4156 yds and 17/18 adding 186 yds on the ground. Rex Grossman took over for him in week 15. Through 14 weeks, McNabb was QB14 by FBG scoring. He is now on a better team and in a better situation (that whole thing got awkward after they pulled him for the 2 min drill in week 8). Yet he is currently being drafted as QB23 with an average staff ranking of QB22. It is impossible to accurately project a QB on a new team, but right now he pretty clearly presents a lot of value, unless you really believe Ponder will be taking over at some point this season.

His completion percentage was just a bit below his career average while his ypa was a little above, so I don't think we can say he's clearly lost it. He is just one season removed from six straight seasons being ranked top 10 in ppg. I don't know that for a fact but I'll list his end of season ranking with number of games played starting with the '04 season:

#3 - 15g, #20 - 9g, #10 - 10g, #12 - 14g, #7 - 16g, #12 - 14g.

Either way, the point is that he's been very productive and he was even putting up decent numbers in a really bad situation last year. He's clearly got an injury history, but at his current price I don't see how he doesn't present terrific value as a QB2 you can land in the 14th round.

Last year they threw the ball 502 times with a feeble Favre plus Joe Webb and Tarvaris Jackson. I think 500 is a reasonable expectation for 2011. 7.0 ypa seems conservative as well, so we're looking at 3500 yards passing, plus a likely 150 rushing. If history is any indicator, then 20/10 is a realistic TD/INT ratio. There is talk about MIN tailoring the offense to McNabb so he could easily surpass these conservative numbers. The big question is going to be if the offensive line can keep him healthy.

300/500 3500 yds 20 TD 10 INT 150 yds rushing

 
Agree with harmapunk. The system is tailor made for Mcnabb were my initial thoughts, but I turned sour on him after reading all the negativity. He is starting to look like great value as a low end 1.

 
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