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2011 QB Strategy: QBs by ADP (1 Viewer)

LHUCKS

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Summary

My strategy in most leagues will be to wait on QB and target Romo whom according to my projections presents the best value. If any of the top 6 slide I would consider them as well. If I don't get a top 7 QB I really like a Bradford/Roethlisberger combo.

I also like Fitzpatrick and Kolb as deeper sleepers and hopefully as my QB#3.

This is ADP data from MFL for standard PPR leagues.

Red = Sell or Overvalued

Green = Buy or Undervalued

1. 1.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 15.75 1 35 289

2. 1.02 Vick, Michael PHI QB 16.99 1 58 290

3. 1.03 Brees, Drew NOS QB 36.08 5 80 289

4. 1.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 38.87 3 67 289

5. 1.05 Manning, Peyton IND QB 41.25 2 96 289

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 43.44 2 80 289

7. 1.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB 56.09 19 93 288

8. 1.08 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 68.62 2 116 288

9. 1.09 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 70.26 22 118 288

10. 1.10 Freeman, Josh TBB QB 70.83 13 113 287

11. 1.11 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 71.55 25 113 287

12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285

14. 2.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 93.08 10 237 286

15. 2.03 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 103.76 33 222 285

16. 2.04 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 108.40 35 249 283

17. 2.05 Cassel, Matt KCC QB 124.37 54 249 282

18. 2.06 Tebow, Tim DEN QB 130.92 69 279 272

19. 2.07 Kolb, Kevin ARI QB 133.22 40 273 274

20. 2.08 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 136.99 23 309 275

21. 2.09 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 145.79 75 314 266

22. 2.10 Newton, Cam CAR QB 167.76 82 425 145

23. 2.11 Orton, Kyle DEN QB 168.14 80 380 222

24. 2.12 Garrard, David JAC QB 171.17 84 478 195

25. 3.01 McCoy, Colt CLE QB 174.78 64 360 145

26. 3.02 Campbell, Jason OAK QB 193.49 92 461 132

27. 3.03 Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB 194.48 93 440 71

28. 3.04 McNabb, Donovan MIN QB 201.97 93 533 117

29. 3.05 Locker, Jake TEN QB 210.48 110 441 73

30. 3.06 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 213.90 101 445 71

31. 3.07 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 216.51 102 531 95

32. 3.08 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 219.90 132 451 59

33. 3.09 Ponder, Christian MIN QB 221.83 119 443 72

34. 3.10 Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB 237.51 115 588 59

35. 3.11 Smith, Alex SFO QB 241.98 119 523 65

36. 3.12 Henne, Chad MIA QB 246.96 100 452 55

37. 4.01 Mallett, Ryan NEP QB 253.44 168 466 43

38. 4.02 Flynn, Matt GBP QB 263.38 123 464 40

39. 4.03 Young, Vince PHI QB 269.04 138 503 46

40. 4.04 Jackson, Tarvaris SEA QB 289.31 152 580 16

 
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I really like Romo's price as well. Still tempted to play QB freefall and see if I cant just use a combo of bradford/ben/eli/ryan...

 
Agree wholeheartedly with Romo, Kolb and Fitzpatrick.

You lose me with Sam Bradford. He finished QB20 as a rookie and most of his success was dinking and dunking. Yes, there's a great deal of potential in McDaniels' system, but I have a hunch Bradford will suffer some growing pains as he learns it. Bradford at #12 already has his potential for 2011 baked into it IMHO.

Signed ~Dynasty owner and one of Bradford's biggest supporters.

One other suggestion. I'd argue that, almost by definition Stafford MUST either be overvalued or undervalued depending on whether or not you think he'll stay healthy. In three starts last year he threw 6 TD's and ran in another. Considering the talent added on both the offense and defense, I don't think it's a reach to say that he's almost a lock top 10 QB over 16 starts. That, or you've lost all trust and wouldn't touch him. Now that I think about it though, maybe his potential + risk = QB13 being just about right?

Two others:

I also think a lot of people are missing the boat on Freeman at #10. He'll do well to finish in the top 15. Several things broke the Bucs way last year.

Cassel at QB17 should be green. Bowe, Breaston and Baldwin with a suspect defense in a division featuring the Bronocs, Chargers and Asomugha-less Raiders will lead to some high scoring affairs. Cassel is a sneaky value who hasn't been getting near enough play IMO.

Good stuff LHUCKS.

 
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'LHUCKS said:
Summary

My strategy in most leagues will be to wait on QB and target Romo whom according to my projections presents the best value. If any of the top 6 slide I would consider them as well. If I don't get a top 7 QB I really like a Bradford/Roethlisberger combo.

I also like Fitzpatrick and Kolb as deeper sleepers and hopefully as my QB#3.

Click to expand...
I agree with you on this. Ben should be going top 8.



However, I'd be happy with Peyton as the #5, won't take Bradford as #12, and will take the chance with Tebow as my #2 if I wait (18 seems reasonable).

UNDERVALUED: Ben, Colt McCoy, Hass

OVERVALUED: Bradford, Ryan, Stafford



I just don't trust Stafford to stay healthy. I'll take him as my #2 if I have a solid starter but if I have a solid starter I'm probably not taking the first backup QB in a 12 team league. Although if I wait longer than I usually do for QB I wouldn't be terribly upset with an Eli/Stafford combo.

 
I really like Cutler to join the top 5-8 this season. His second season in the complex Martz system. He's getting good reviews. People still remember the NFCC game. He's unliked and represents nice value.

 
I think QB 14 to 17 all represent nice value and would not mind any 2 for my QB and love them as QBBC. Anyone except Cassell is capable of a top 10 season.

Sanchez at 20 is about right with him. I rather take a chance on him than a Fitzpatrick. I wont say he is undervalued but he is a guy I would not mind as my #2 if I got one of the top 6 minus Vick or even Big Ben. Paired with this type of QB and I think he can surprise this year in year 3. Orton is another but have to worry about the Tebow effect still and what happens come mid-season as he could be benched. Kolb is starting to look good but still give me the 14 to 17 bunch instead. He is more a capable backup

I leave Bradford to others if possible. Newton I want nothing to do with either.

 
ADP and specific players aside, I've never been a fan of doing the back-to-back QBs thing you'd probably need to do to get Ben/Bradford. There are too many good WRs and committee backs with a chance of breakout available in in the 6th/7th/8th rounds of the draft.

 
Luchs I like your thought process but if you don't mind could you share your projections for romo and Vick I've argue in another thread that Vick may insanely be undervalued

 
Say what you want about Lhucks, but he's starting good threads and generating discussion. :thumbup:

Waiting on QB seems like the way to go unless your leaguemates are thinking the same way and letting the big names fall. There are several players that have the potential to put up top 10 and even top 5 numbers, or at least can play at a level where their ppg numbers are on par with the consensus top 7.

Schaub

Roethlisberger

Ryan

Manning

Freeman

Stafford

Cutler

Bradford

All of these guys are talented players with weapons. There are plenty of scenarios where any of them could sneak into that upper echelon in 2011.

 
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If Manning remains on the PUP list throughout August, as many now expect, his ADP will likely drop behind Brady, and maybe Romo and Ryan, if they look good in the preseason.

 
'Grahamburn said:
Say what you want about Lhucks, but he's starting good threads and generating discussion. :thumbup:Waiting on QB seems like the way to go unless your leaguemates are thinking the same way and letting the big names fall. There are several players that have the potential to put up top 10 and even top 5 numbers, or at least can play at a level where their ppg numbers are on par with the consensus top 6.SchaubRoethlisbergerRyan ManningFreeman StaffordCutlerBradfordAll of these guys are talented players with weapons. There are plenty of scenarios where any of them could sneak into that upper echelon in 2011.
Click to expand...
I like Romo above all of these guys, unless you meant the consensus top 7, and thus were including him in the original total?RodgersVickManningRiversBradyBreesRomo?
 
'Sabertooth said:
I really like Cutler to join the top 5-8 this season. His second season in the complex Martz system. He's getting good reviews. People still remember the NFCC game. He's unliked and represents nice value.
Click to expand...
I'm with you on Cutler. I know he throws way to many picks but people are vastly underrating him based off where he is being taken. Cutler (126) is being drafted after guys like Flacco (121) and Kolb (123).

That's value to me. I would love to draft him after getting a guy like Romo or Big Ben.

 
'DaMenace18 said:
'Sabertooth said:
I really like Cutler to join the top 5-8 this season. His second season in the complex Martz system. He's getting good reviews. People still remember the NFCC game. He's unliked and represents nice value.
Click to expand...
I'm with you on Cutler. I know he throws way to many picks but people are vastly underrating him based off where he is being taken. Cutler (126) is being drafted after guys like Flacco (121) and Kolb (123).

That's value to me. I would love to draft him after getting a guy like Romo or Big Ben.
Click to expand...
I think you know what you're getting with Cutler, I don't expect a huge increase or decrease in production. That being said, he barely missed my cutoff as a value play this year. Cutler's problem is TDs, terrible offensive line that just lost Kreutz(Schlereth just ripped the Bears this morning.) He also doesn't have any top flight playmakers. Also, the Lions and Packers should have better defenses and teams this year...that's 4 tougher games.

All of that being said, I still have him as a slight value play.

 
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My strategy with QBs is simple. I list how many QBs that I would be comfortable as my every week starter. This year I can list 10 QBs - Vick, Rodgers, Brees, P Manning, Rivers, Brady, Romo, Schaub, Roethlisberger and E Manning. I look at the ADPs and once half the list is gone, I start looking for my QB. QB5 has an ADP of 41, or about the middle of the 4th round in a 12 teamer. So I start to look into drafting my QB in Round 5. This will give me ample time to get one of my second 5 QBs, whether it's Romo in Round 5, or Roethlisberger 1-2 rounds later or E Manning 2-3 rounds later.

 
.

Nice post.

I want to like McNabb, but just who is going to replace McKinnie? No LT at the start of Camp? That's a recipe for disaster.

Not loving Kolb till I see him win some games

Love the ability to pick Hasselbeck late. Great value in start 2 qb big leagues.

Not buying the Romo love at that pick. Don't see the value

Agree completely on Peyton.

If Stafford is healthy, I believe he can finish to 8, if only because the Defense is going to kill teams and give the O great starting position.

 
'hotboyz said:
Luchs I like your thought process but if you don't mind could you share your projections for romo and Vick I've argue in another thread that Vick may insanely be undervalued
Click to expand...
I don't project static numbers for players, I project ranges that to most people look quite broad. I do have weighted averages for players, so that's what the below are.Romo: 4650/31/12 25/80/1Vick: 3425/26/11INT 80/540/7Vick has a higher ceiling, but also a lower floor(not by much.) Both have broad ranges when compared to other players in their tier. For example, Rodgers and Rivers have less risk so their floor are higher making their ranges more narrow.What I like about Vick this year is that you can back him up with a Bradford or Roethlisberger at QB#2, or even a deeper guy like Cutler. So you're not totally screwed if he misses a three game stretch. He's what I call a strategy play, not a value play. What I don't like about Vick is his susceptibility to injury, his cost and what appeared to be defenses better defending him in the second half...coordinators noted that Vick was better working on one side for example and took advantage of that. In shallow leagues I love Vick because you're not as punished at RB/WR as you would be in deeper leagues. In deep leagues he's more of a gamble and I generally wont be drafting him. His ADP overall is about right IMHO.
 
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'Ramblin Wreck said:
Bradford as QB12 is a huge sell for me. I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
He had one of the best rookie passing seasons in the history of the game with a constantly injured receiving corps. Now you add pass happy McDaniels to the mix...I have his high side at 5200 passing yards.I don't understand what there isn't to like. Compare his rookie numbers to Peyton Mannings, then you'll see what there is to like.If Bradford played in New York his ADP would be two rounds earlier.
 
'FantasyTrader said:
I also think a lot of people are missing the boat on Freeman at #10. He'll do well to finish in the top 15. Several things broke the Bucs way last year.
Click to expand...
I kind of agree with you here...I'm revisiting my Bucs passing numbers today. That being said, I really like Freeman as a football player.
'FantasyTrader said:
Cassel at QB17 should be green. Bowe, Breaston and Baldwin with a suspect defense in a division featuring the Bronocs, Chargers and Asomugha-less Raiders will lead to some high scoring affairs. Cassel is a sneaky value who hasn't been getting near enough play IMO.
Click to expand...
Much tougher schedule for the Chefs this year. I've never been a huge Cassel fan to begin with...limited physical tools IMHO.phy
'FantasyTrader said:
Good stuff LHUCKS.
Click to expand...
:hifive:
 
'[icon] said:
'LHUCKS said:
12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285
Click to expand...
You highlighted the wrong one.
Click to expand...
Stafford and probably Vick are the two toughest players to project for IMO. If Stafford slides and I have a safe QB1(Rivers/Brees etc) I would probably jump on him for his upside. From an ADP perspective I think he's about right...typical risk/reward pick. One nice thing about Stafford is that Hill is an excellent handcuff.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'Ramblin Wreck said:
Bradford as QB12 is a huge sell for me. I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
He had one of the best rookie passing seasons in the history of the game with a constantly injured receiving corps. Now you add pass happy McDaniels to the mix...I have his high side at 5200 passing yards.I don't understand what there isn't to like. Compare his rookie numbers to Peyton Mannings, then you'll see what there is to like.If Bradford played in New York his ADP would be two rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Can't wait to see what you have for Rams WR on the high side if you think the high side of Bradford is 5200 yards.
 
'The Ref said:
'LHUCKS said:
'Ramblin Wreck said:
Bradford as QB12 is a huge sell for me. I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
He had one of the best rookie passing seasons in the history of the game with a constantly injured receiving corps. Now you add pass happy McDaniels to the mix...I have his high side at 5200 passing yards.I don't understand what there isn't to like. Compare his rookie numbers to Peyton Mannings, then you'll see what there is to like.If Bradford played in New York his ADP would be two rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Can't wait to see what you have for Rams WR on the high side if you think the high side of Bradford is 5200 yards.
Click to expand...
First, I only have a 5% likelihood that Bradford gets to 5200, so it's not like that is a likely figure.whoever the starters are, rest assured every single one of them will be a value playWR1, WR2, WR3 and TE will all be value plays...the question is obviously who those players will be.
 
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My take....

1. 1.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 15.75 1 35 289

2. 1.02 Vick, Michael PHI QB 16.99 1 58 290

3. 1.03 Brees, Drew NOS QB 36.08 5 80 289

4. 1.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 38.87 3 67 289

5. 1.05 Manning, Peyton IND QB 41.25 2 96 289

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 43.44 2 80 289

7. 1.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB 56.09 19 93 288

8. 1.08 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 68.62 2 116 288

9. 1.09 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 70.26 22 118 288

10. 1.10 Freeman, Josh TBB QB 70.83 13 113 287

11. 1.11 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 71.55 25 113 287

12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285

14. 2.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 93.08 10 237 286

15. 2.03 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 103.76 33 222 285

16. 2.04 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 108.40 35 249 283

17. 2.05 Cassel, Matt KCC QB 124.37 54 249 282

18. 2.06 Tebow, Tim DEN QB 130.92 69 279 272

19. 2.07 Kolb, Kevin ARI QB 133.22 40 273 274

20. 2.08 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 136.99 23 309 275

21. 2.09 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 145.79 75 314 266

22. 2.10 Newton, Cam CAR QB 167.76 82 425 145

23. 2.11 Orton, Kyle DEN QB 168.14 80 380 222

24. 2.12 Garrard, David JAC QB 171.17 84 478 195

 
'LHUCKS said:
'The Ref said:
'LHUCKS said:
'Ramblin Wreck said:
Bradford as QB12 is a huge sell for me. I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
He had one of the best rookie passing seasons in the history of the game with a constantly injured receiving corps. Now you add pass happy McDaniels to the mix...I have his high side at 5200 passing yards.I don't understand what there isn't to like. Compare his rookie numbers to Peyton Mannings, then you'll see what there is to like.If Bradford played in New York his ADP would be two rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Can't wait to see what you have for Rams WR on the high side if you think the high side of Bradford is 5200 yards.
Click to expand...
whoever the starters are, rest assured every single one of them will be a value playWR1, WR2, WR3 and TE will all be value plays...the question is obviously who those players will be.
Click to expand...
At the point that your "high side" estimate is the best season by a QB ever, how much value does it really provide you? What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
 
'We Tigers said:
At the point that your "high side" estimate is the best season by a QB ever, how much value does it really provide you? What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
Click to expand...
i shouldn't even put my ranges in these threads, it just confuses/diverts the topic.I only have a 5% chance of bradford hittign that number. That's a best case scenario that is very unlikely to happen.Just disregard that number(the same thing happens in every thread :wall: )
 
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'We Tigers said:
What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
Click to expand...
I'm not talking ranges in this thread...it just confuses people and starts another discussion that is best left for another thread. I project very differently than most people. To make my projections "shark pool friendly" I use weighted averages, we should just stick to those.I dont really feel like having a discussion on my complex projection process.
 
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'The Real Hipster Doofus said:
My take....

1. 1.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 15.75 1 35 289

2. 1.02 Vick, Michael PHI QB 16.99 1 58 290

3. 1.03 Brees, Drew NOS QB 36.08 5 80 289

4. 1.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 38.87 3 67 289

5. 1.05 Manning, Peyton IND QB 41.25 2 96 289

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 43.44 2 80 289

7. 1.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB 56.09 19 93 288

8. 1.08 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 68.62 2 116 288

9. 1.09 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 70.26 22 118 288

10. 1.10 Freeman, Josh TBB QB 70.83 13 113 287

11. 1.11 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 71.55 25 113 287

12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285

14. 2.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 93.08 10 237 286

15. 2.03 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 103.76 33 222 285

16. 2.04 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 108.40 35 249 283

17. 2.05 Cassel, Matt KCC QB 124.37 54 249 282

18. 2.06 Tebow, Tim DEN QB 130.92 69 279 272

19. 2.07 Kolb, Kevin ARI QB 133.22 40 273 274

20. 2.08 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 136.99 23 309 275

21. 2.09 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 145.79 75 314 266

22. 2.10 Newton, Cam CAR QB 167.76 82 425 145

23. 2.11 Orton, Kyle DEN QB 168.14 80 380 222

24. 2.12 Garrard, David JAC QB 171.17 84 478 195
Click to expand...
Ryan is interesting, the Falcons show signs of wanting to open things up, but whether or not they really will is tough to know or project for.Orton is a dice roll.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'The Real Hipster Doofus said:
My take....

1. 1.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 15.75 1 35 289

2. 1.02 Vick, Michael PHI QB 16.99 1 58 290

3. 1.03 Brees, Drew NOS QB 36.08 5 80 289

4. 1.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 38.87 3 67 289

5. 1.05 Manning, Peyton IND QB 41.25 2 96 289

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 43.44 2 80 289

7. 1.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB 56.09 19 93 288

8. 1.08 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 68.62 2 116 288

9. 1.09 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 70.26 22 118 288

10. 1.10 Freeman, Josh TBB QB 70.83 13 113 287

11. 1.11 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 71.55 25 113 287

12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285

14. 2.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 93.08 10 237 286

15. 2.03 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 103.76 33 222 285

16. 2.04 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 108.40 35 249 283

17. 2.05 Cassel, Matt KCC QB 124.37 54 249 282

18. 2.06 Tebow, Tim DEN QB 130.92 69 279 272

19. 2.07 Kolb, Kevin ARI QB 133.22 40 273 274

20. 2.08 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 136.99 23 309 275

21. 2.09 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 145.79 75 314 266

22. 2.10 Newton, Cam CAR QB 167.76 82 425 145

23. 2.11 Orton, Kyle DEN QB 168.14 80 380 222

24. 2.12 Garrard, David JAC QB 171.17 84 478 195
Click to expand...
Ryan is interesting, the Falcons show signs of wanting to open things up, but whether or not they really will is tough to know or project for.Orton is a dice roll.
Click to expand...
Ryan to me is an above average talent at QB who people seem to think is in the very good to great category. People see the addition of Julio Jones and expect Ryan to take that leap into the top tiers, and I just don't see it in him. Orton is definitely a dice roll, but at an ADP of 23 amongst QB's? That's a roll I take every single time.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'We Tigers said:
What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
Click to expand...
I'm not talking ranges in this thread...it just confuses people and starts another discussion that is best left for another thread. I project very differently than most people. To make my projections "shark pool friendly" I use weighted averages, we should just stick to those.I dont really feel like having a discussion on my complex projection process.
Click to expand...
In other words, you're just smarter than anyone else. :thumbdown: The issue is that you said Bradford's upside was 5200 yards. The number 5,200 and Bradford should never be in the same sentence (weighted averages or not). Take your 5% number and drop it down to 0.1%. In other words, it's pointless to even think it, let alone speak it. Here, my weighted average prediction states that Bradford's upside is 7,348 yards. I'm only giving him a 0.00231% chance that it happens, but he could get there.

Out of curiosity, can you give me the percentage chance that Chris Johnson rushes for 3,000 yards and then 3,500 yards? Thanks.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'Ramblin Wreck said:
Bradford as QB12 is a huge sell for me. I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
He had one of the best rookie passing seasons in the history of the game with a constantly injured receiving corps. Now you add pass happy McDaniels to the mix...I have his high side at 5200 passing yards.I don't understand what there isn't to like. Compare his rookie numbers to Peyton Mannings, then you'll see what there is to like.

If Bradford played in New York his ADP would be two rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Wait, are we talking about 2011 or his career?There's not a snowballs chance he gets anywhere close to 5200 passing yards.

 
'GridironMenace said:
'LHUCKS said:
'We Tigers said:
What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
Click to expand...
I'm not talking ranges in this thread...it just confuses people and starts another discussion that is best left for another thread. I project very differently than most people. To make my projections "shark pool friendly" I use weighted averages, we should just stick to those.I dont really feel like having a discussion on my complex projection process.
Click to expand...
In other words, you're just smarter than anyone else. :thumbdown: The issue is that you said Bradford's upside was 5200 yards. The number 5,200 and Bradford should never be in the same sentence (weighted averages or not). Take your 5% number and drop it down to 0.1%. In other words, it's pointless to even think it, let alone speak it. Here, my weighted average prediction states that Bradford's upside is 7,348 yards. I'm only giving him a 0.00231% chance that it happens, but he could get there.

Out of curiosity, can you give me the percentage chance that Chris Johnson rushes for 3,000 yards and then 3,500 yards? Thanks.
Click to expand...
Why the hard feelings? There is a pretty good discussion going on here. It's one of those things where do you want to see how the sausage is made? Take it for what it's worth, I'm sure he'd share his statistical break down if you so choose...
 
My plan in my first money league draft was to get Fitz. and a top 7 guy and then this happened

2.07 19. Naked Pygmies Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

2.10 22. The Grim Reaper Vick, Michael PHI QB

3.09 33. Ben Maller Nation Rivers, Philip SDC QB

4.01 37. Flying Ostriches Brees, Drew NOS QB

4.09 45. The Lone Rangers Manning, Peyton IND QB

6.02 62. Smoke 'n Mirrors Brady, Tom NEP QB

6.03 63. Pocket Rockets Romo, Tony DAL QB

6.07 67. Port City Pirates Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

7.08 80. War Munkees Ryan, Matt ATL QB

8.05 89. War Munkees Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB

8.08 92. The Grim Reaper Freeman, Josh TBB QB

8.11 95. Mighty to Save Schaub, Matt HOU QB

10.10 118. Green Bowl Packers Manning, Eli NYG QB

10.11 119. Mighty to Save Stafford, Matthew DET QB

10.12 120. Barking Spiders Flacco, Joe BAL QB

11.05 125. Pocket Rockets Cutler, Jay CHI QB

11.09 129. Ben Maller Nation Bradford, Sam STL QB

11.12 132. Flying Ostriches Cassel, Matt KCC QB

12.10 142. Green Bowl Packers Tebow, Tim DEN QB

13.06 150. Port City Pirates Kolb, Kevin ARI QB

13.11 155. Smoke 'n Mirrors Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

14.12 168. Barking Spiders Campbell, Jason OAK QB

15.07 175. Naked Pygmies Garrard, David JAC QB

16.10 190. Green Bowl Packers Orton, Kyle DEN QB

17.04 196. The Lone Rangers Newton, Cam CAR QB ®

20.07 235. Port City Pirates Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB

20.09 237. The Lone Rangers McNabb, Donovan MIN QB

In this draft and more than a few mocks, it seems to me that the high/low picks for quarterbacks are wider than normal years.

 
'by_the_sea_wannabe said:
My plan in my first money league draft was to get Fitz. and a top 7 guy and then this happened

2.07 19. Naked Pygmies Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

2.10 22. The Grim Reaper Vick, Michael PHI QB

3.09 33. Ben Maller Nation Rivers, Philip SDC QB

4.01 37. Flying Ostriches Brees, Drew NOS QB

4.09 45. The Lone Rangers Manning, Peyton IND QB

6.02 62. Smoke 'n Mirrors Brady, Tom NEP QB

6.03 63. Pocket Rockets Romo, Tony DAL QB

6.07 67. Port City Pirates Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

7.08 80. War Munkees Ryan, Matt ATL QB

8.05 89. War Munkees Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB

8.08 92. The Grim Reaper Freeman, Josh TBB QB

8.11 95. Mighty to Save Schaub, Matt HOU QB

10.10 118. Green Bowl Packers Manning, Eli NYG QB

10.11 119. Mighty to Save Stafford, Matthew DET QB

10.12 120. Barking Spiders Flacco, Joe BAL QB

11.05 125. Pocket Rockets Cutler, Jay CHI QB

11.09 129. Ben Maller Nation Bradford, Sam STL QB

11.12 132. Flying Ostriches Cassel, Matt KCC QB

12.10 142. Green Bowl Packers Tebow, Tim DEN QB

13.06 150. Port City Pirates Kolb, Kevin ARI QB

13.11 155. Smoke 'n Mirrors Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

14.12 168. Barking Spiders Campbell, Jason OAK QB

15.07 175. Naked Pygmies Garrard, David JAC QB

16.10 190. Green Bowl Packers Orton, Kyle DEN QB

17.04 196. The Lone Rangers Newton, Cam CAR QB ®

20.07 235. Port City Pirates Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB

20.09 237. The Lone Rangers McNabb, Donovan MIN QB

In this draft and more than a few mocks, it seems to me that the high/low picks for quarterbacks are wider than normal years.
Click to expand...
I know the shark move is to wait on QBs but Brady and Romo in the 6th is criminal.
 
'LHUCKS said:
'hotboyz said:
Luchs I like your thought process but if you don't mind could you share your projections for romo and Vick I've argue in another thread that Vick may insanely be undervalued
Click to expand...
I don't project static numbers for players, I project ranges that to most people look quite broad. I do have weighted averages for players, so that's what the below are.Romo: 4650/31/12 25/80/1Vick: 3425/26/11INT 80/540/7Vick has a higher ceiling, but also a lower floor(not by much.) Both have broad ranges when compared to other players in their tier. For example, Rodgers and Rivers have less risk so their floor are higher making their ranges more narrow.What I like about Vick this year is that you can back him up with a Bradford or Roethlisberger at QB#2, or even a deeper guy like Cutler. So you're not totally screwed if he misses a three game stretch. He's what I call a strategy play, not a value play. What I don't like about Vick is his susceptibility to injury, his cost and what appeared to be defenses better defending him in the second half...coordinators noted that Vick was better working on one side for example and took advantage of that. In shallow leagues I love Vick because you're not as punished at RB/WR as you would be in deeper leagues. In deep leagues he's more of a gamble and I generally wont be drafting him. His ADP overall is about right IMHO.
Click to expand...
Ok I guess I can see where you are coming from but why do you consider Vick more if a injury risk than romo? Excluding jail time which QB has missed more time due to injury? While I do agree Romo is great value at Qb #7 I believe Vick is the best value at #1he may be equal in pass yds with romo but he may run for 850 and 6td!
 
'LHUCKS said:
Summary

My strategy in most leagues will be to wait on QB and target Romo whom according to my projections presents the best value. If any of the top 6 slide I would consider them as well. If I don't get a top 7 QB I really like a Bradford/Roethlisberger combo.

I also like Fitzpatrick and Kolb as deeper sleepers and hopefully as my QB#3.

This is ADP data from MFL for standard PPR leagues.

Red = Sell or Overvalued

Green = Buy or Undervalued

1. 1.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 15.75 1 35 289

2. 1.02 Vick, Michael PHI QB 16.99 1 58 290

3. 1.03 Brees, Drew NOS QB 36.08 5 80 289

4. 1.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 38.87 3 67 289

5. 1.05 Manning, Peyton IND QB 41.25 2 96 289

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 43.44 2 80 289

7. 1.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB 56.09 19 93 288

8. 1.08 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 68.62 2 116 288

9. 1.09 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 70.26 22 118 288

10. 1.10 Freeman, Josh TBB QB 70.83 13 113 287

11. 1.11 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 71.55 25 113 287

12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285

14. 2.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 93.08 10 237 286

15. 2.03 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 103.76 33 222 285

16. 2.04 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 108.40 35 249 283

17. 2.05 Cassel, Matt KCC QB 124.37 54 249 282

18. 2.06 Tebow, Tim DEN QB 130.92 69 279 272

19. 2.07 Kolb, Kevin ARI QB 133.22 40 273 274

20. 2.08 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 136.99 23 309 275

21. 2.09 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 145.79 75 314 266

22. 2.10 Newton, Cam CAR QB 167.76 82 425 145

23. 2.11 Orton, Kyle DEN QB 168.14 80 380 222

24. 2.12 Garrard, David JAC QB 171.17 84 478 195

25. 3.01 McCoy, Colt CLE QB 174.78 64 360 145

26. 3.02 Campbell, Jason OAK QB 193.49 92 461 132

27. 3.03 Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB 194.48 93 440 71

28. 3.04 McNabb, Donovan MIN QB 201.97 93 533 117

29. 3.05 Locker, Jake TEN QB 210.48 110 441 73

30. 3.06 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 213.90 101 445 71

31. 3.07 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 216.51 102 531 95

32. 3.08 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 219.90 132 451 59

33. 3.09 Ponder, Christian MIN QB 221.83 119 443 72

34. 3.10 Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB 237.51 115 588 59

35. 3.11 Smith, Alex SFO QB 241.98 119 523 65

36. 3.12 Henne, Chad MIA QB 246.96 100 452 55

37. 4.01 Mallett, Ryan NEP QB 253.44 168 466 43

38. 4.02 Flynn, Matt GBP QB 263.38 123 464 40

39. 4.03 Young, Vince PHI QB 269.04 138 503 46

40. 4.04 Jackson, Tarvaris SEA QB 289.31 152 580 16
Click to expand...
I'm likin Romo too. I'm thinkin he might creep up in the next few weeks, although he prolly isnt gonna pass too many of the guys ahead of him.I like Matt Ryan also. That offense has some weapons. Jones and Rodgers might make an impact immediately.

I like Roeth. Perpetually underrated.

Stafford is intriguing to me. We'll see how he looks in pre season.

Tebow seems way overrated. Is he really gonna start over Orton? If I was a GM in need of a QB I'd be trying like hell to get Orton.

 
I actually agree with most of your picks except Manning at 5 being overvalued.

Schaub at 9 is a dream.

Freeman at 10 is majorly overvalued.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'Ramblin Wreck said:
Bradford as QB12 is a huge sell for me. I just don't see it.
Click to expand...
He had one of the best rookie passing seasons in the history of the game with a constantly injured receiving corps. Now you add pass happy McDaniels to the mix...I have his high side at 5200 passing yards.I don't understand what there isn't to like. Compare his rookie numbers to Peyton Mannings, then you'll see what there is to like.If Bradford played in New York his ADP would be two rounds earlier.
Click to expand...
Bradford was already in a pass happy offense. He threw 590 passes last year, only Manning and Brees threw more. The combination of Tebow and Orton threw 580. I don't like his receivers and I don't like his schedule (playing the NFC East and AFC North this year versus NFC South and AFC West last year), and I don't like the fact he is in a new system. His schedule starts Philly, @Giants, Ravens, Washington, BYE, @Green BayThe only team I would start him against in that list is Washington. Can you see drafting someone in the first 10 rounds who you play once in the first 6 weeks? I see him as someone other teams can draft. I'll try and trade for him after week 6.I like his talent, and the division he is in, but I expect I will like him a lot more next year as far as drafting goes.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'PizzaDeliveryGuy said:
I actually agree with most of your picks except Manning at 5 being overvalued.

Schaub at 9 is a dream.

Freeman at 10 is majorly overvalued.
Click to expand...
He finished 7th in 2010. :shrug: Matt Ryan looks like a nice player to target. When comparing him to a second round pick, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan had 45 more completions, the same amount of TD passes (28), and two fewer interceptions.

With Atlanta aggresively pursuing Julio Jones it looks like the Falcons are hoping to become a more prolific passing offense.

 
'LHUCKS said:
'We Tigers said:
What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
Click to expand...
I'm not talking ranges in this thread...it just confuses people and starts another discussion that is best left for another thread. I project very differently than most people. To make my projections "shark pool friendly" I use weighted averages, we should just stick to those.I dont really feel like having a discussion on my complex projection process.
Click to expand...
HAHAHAHAHA! This is the only reason I click on a thread started by this guy. You know there will be at least one gem like this.Thank you for not discussing your "complex" projection process that led you to believe there was any chance of Bradford hitting 5200 yards.

:tfp:

Just for fun... Underrated QBs: Big Ben, Cutler, Fitzpatrick. If I miss Ben, I am feeling increasingly comfortable with the idea of just pairing Culter/Fitz. Lots of upside here.

Overrated: Ryan, Stafford, Bradford. I've given detailed explanations in all three spotlights, but basically they are all low ypa guys who would require a very high number of attempts just to justify their draft position. Really low upside guys. I know people think Stafford is high upside, but a LOT of things need to fall in place for that to happen, including but not limited to: high attempts, drastic increase in ypa, health.

Basically there are 9 guys who are pretty much locks to hit 4k yds plus Vick. It's going require a lot of improvement for ~3500 yard guys to break into the top 10. IMO, Cutler is the most likely.

 
'LHUCKS said:
Summary

My strategy in most leagues will be to wait on QB and target Romo whom according to my projections presents the best value. If any of the top 6 slide I would consider them as well. If I don't get a top 7 QB I really like a Bradford/Roethlisberger combo.

I also like Fitzpatrick and Kolb as deeper sleepers and hopefully as my QB#3.

This is ADP data from MFL for standard PPR leagues.

Red = Sell or Overvalued

Green = Buy or Undervalued

1. 1.01 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 15.75 1 35 289

2. 1.02 Vick, Michael PHI QB 16.99 1 58 290

3. 1.03 Brees, Drew NOS QB 36.08 5 80 289

4. 1.04 Rivers, Philip SDC QB 38.87 3 67 289

5. 1.05 Manning, Peyton IND QB 41.25 2 96 289

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB 43.44 2 80 289

7. 1.07 Romo, Tony DAL QB 56.09 19 93 288

8. 1.08 Ryan, Matt ATL QB 68.62 2 116 288

9. 1.09 Schaub, Matt HOU QB 70.26 22 118 288

10. 1.10 Freeman, Josh TBB QB 70.83 13 113 287

11. 1.11 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 71.55 25 113 287

12. 1.12 Bradford, Sam STL QB 90.34 7 154 283

13. 2.01 Stafford, Matthew DET QB 92.44 24 154 285

14. 2.02 Manning, Eli NYG QB 93.08 10 237 286

15. 2.03 Flacco, Joe BAL QB 103.76 33 222 285

16. 2.04 Cutler, Jay CHI QB 108.40 35 249 283

17. 2.05 Cassel, Matt KCC QB 124.37 54 249 282

18. 2.06 Tebow, Tim DEN QB 130.92 69 279 272

19. 2.07 Kolb, Kevin ARI QB 133.22 40 273 274

20. 2.08 Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 136.99 23 309 275

21. 2.09 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB 145.79 75 314 266

22. 2.10 Newton, Cam CAR QB 167.76 82 425 145

23. 2.11 Orton, Kyle DEN QB 168.14 80 380 222

24. 2.12 Garrard, David JAC QB 171.17 84 478 195

25. 3.01 McCoy, Colt CLE QB 174.78 64 360 145

26. 3.02 Campbell, Jason OAK QB 193.49 92 461 132

27. 3.03 Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB 194.48 93 440 71

28. 3.04 McNabb, Donovan MIN QB 201.97 93 533 117

29. 3.05 Locker, Jake TEN QB 210.48 110 441 73

30. 3.06 Dalton, Andy CIN QB 213.90 101 445 71

31. 3.07 Palmer, Carson CIN QB 216.51 102 531 95

32. 3.08 Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB 219.90 132 451 59

33. 3.09 Ponder, Christian MIN QB 221.83 119 443 72

34. 3.10 Hasselbeck, Matt TEN QB 237.51 115 588 59

35. 3.11 Smith, Alex SFO QB 241.98 119 523 65

36. 3.12 Henne, Chad MIA QB 246.96 100 452 55

37. 4.01 Mallett, Ryan NEP QB 253.44 168 466 43

38. 4.02 Flynn, Matt GBP QB 263.38 123 464 40

39. 4.03 Young, Vince PHI QB 269.04 138 503 46

40. 4.04 Jackson, Tarvaris SEA QB 289.31 152 580 16
Click to expand...
I disagree with a lot of these, but you're spot on with Roethlisberger. He's the best value at perhaps any position.
 
I would sell Romo if i could get top 5 QB value, I know he started late but hes already 31 and only had 2 Top 10 finishes.

I would buy Peyton if his rate was reduced a bit, I don't recall him finishing outside the top 5

 
'FF Ninja said:
'LHUCKS said:
'We Tigers said:
What is the low end of your range on Bradford?
Click to expand...
I'm not talking ranges in this thread...it just confuses people and starts another discussion that is best left for another thread. I project very differently than most people. To make my projections "shark pool friendly" I use weighted averages, we should just stick to those.I dont really feel like having a discussion on my complex projection process.
Click to expand...
HAHAHAHAHA! This is the only reason I click on a thread started by this guy. You know there will be at least one gem like this.Thank you for not discussing your "complex" projection process that led you to believe there was any chance of Bradford hitting 5200 yards.

:tfp:

Just for fun... Underrated QBs: Big Ben, Cutler, Fitzpatrick. If I miss Ben, I am feeling increasingly comfortable with the idea of just pairing Culter/Fitz. Lots of upside here.

Overrated: Ryan, Stafford, Bradford. I've given detailed explanations in all three spotlights, but basically they are all low ypa guys who would require a very high number of attempts just to justify their draft position. Really low upside guys. I know people think Stafford is high upside, but a LOT of things need to fall in place for that to happen, including but not limited to: high attempts, drastic increase in ypa, health.

Basically there are 9 guys who are pretty much locks to hit 4k yds plus Vick. It's going require a lot of improvement for ~3500 yard guys to break into the top 10. IMO, Cutler is the most likely.
Click to expand...
what is so hard to understand that this thread isn't about lhucks or his overly complicated system. lhucks is actually trying to keep people on topic, so stop the trolling. tia
 
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