LHUCKS
Footballguy
Summary
My strategy in most leagues will be to go RB early and target the value plays highlighted below. I really, really like the value of Ray Rice and Frank Gore in particular. I also like to backload my drafts with high risk/high reward picks later in the draft.
LINK to QB Strategy Thread
This is ADP data from FBG's consensus data for PPR leagues
Red = Sell or Overvalued
Green = Buy or Undervalued
Consensus Name Team Pos Expert MFL Calc non-PPR
1 Arian Foster HOU RB 1 1 1 1 2
2 Adrian Peterson MIN RB 2 3 2 2 1
3 Chris Johnson TEN RB 3 2 3 3 3
4 Jamaal Charles KC RB 4 5 4 4 4
5 Ray Rice BAL RB 5 4 6 5 5 - softer schedule, low risk, high ceiling
6 LeSean McCoy PHI RB 6 6 5 7 7 - Eagels will lighten his load
9 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX RB 7 10 10 8 9 - leary until the knee is 100%
11 Darren McFadden OAK RB 8 16 11 9 13 - should be going higher
13 Frank Gore SF RB 9 14 18 11 16 - hip fracture created value
15 Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB 10 19 14 13 10
17 Matt Forte CHI RB 11 20 16 15 20
19 Steven Jackson STL RB 12 17 21 17 17
22 Michael Turner ATL RB 13 26 26 18 15
24 Peyton Hillis CLE RB 14 32 22 19 22
28 Ryan Mathews SD RB 15 44 28 22 36 - starting to develop soft/lazy reputation
31 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 16 33 33 29 32 - don't expect much to change
37 Jahvid Best DET RB 17 45 35 30 49
43 DeAngelo Williams CAR RB 18 42 52 37 39
46 LeGarrette Blount TB RB 19 71 42 33 35
47 Jonathan Stewart CAR RB 20 53 44 34 41
50 Shonn Greene NYJ RB 21 51 50 50 38
53 Knowshon Moreno DEN RB 22 55 54 45 47
54 Mark Ingram NO RB 23 49 48 44 52
61 Felix Jones DAL RB 24 72 59 63 61
62 Ryan Grant GB RB 25 68 76 61 60 - classic coming back from injury value
63 Daniel Thomas MIA RB 26 70 65 62 65
64 Cedric Benson CIN RB 27 76 67 65 57
65 Fred Jackson BUF RB 28 57 77 72 68
70 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 29 75 69 77 71
75 Joseph Addai IND RB 30 77 80 73 73 - Carter will have job in second half
78 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE RB 31 82 83 86 67
85 Mikel Leshoure DET RB 32 89 89 79 85
87 Ryan Torain WAS RB 33 84 97 91 80
89 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 34 107 79 88 97
92 Ryan Williams ARI RB 35 73 84 94 86 - both AZ backs preseent upside
93 Brandon Jacobs NYG RB 36 81 113 104 88
97 James Starks GB RB 37 119 92 95 99
98 Pierre Thomas NO RB 38 126 107 100 102
100 Mike Tolbert SD RB 39 106 110 97 96
111 Reggie Bush MIA RB 40 103 114 111 116 - great PPR value
113 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ RB 41 129 124 107 115
116 Chris Wells ARI RB 42 133 101 112 107 - AZ starter, soft schedule
118 Michael Bush OAK RB 43 121 117 119 105
123 Roy Helu WAS RB 44 185 105 109 119
124 Ronnie Brown PHI RB 45 134 145 115 123 - great upside behind smaller McCoy
126 Delone Carter IND RB 46 109 127 135 142 - most talented RB on team
128 Rashad Jennings JAX RB 47 130 126 138 137 - MJD handcuff
134 Danny Woodhead NE RB 48 186 146 122 138
137 Montario Hardesty CLE RB 49 149 128 132 135
138 Shane Vereen NE RB 50 105 133 127 160 - most explosive back on roster
144 Bernard Scott CIN RB 51 120 162 144 191
145 Darren Sproles NO RB 52 111 189 147 176
146 Donald Brown IND RB 53 189 154 142 168
149 Demarco Murray DAL RB 54 154 139 140 141
155 Mike Goodson CAR RB 55 194 143 139 175
158 Thomas Jones KC RB 56 162 193 145 139
159 Tashard Choice DAL RB 57 173 172 146 173 - cheap Felix cuff
162 Tim Hightower WAS RB 58 141 220 164 193
168 Marion Barber CHI RB 59 150 221 175 197 - can run better than Forte
173 Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB 60 176 174 153 210
176 Jason Snelling ATL RB 61 228 166 148 206
180 Ben Tate HOU RB 62 229 187 165 195 - lots of reward if Foster goes down
183 Justin Forsett SEA RB 63 230 223 152 211
184 Jerome Harrison RB 64 200 225 166 232
187 Kendall Hunter SF RB 65 226 156 158 217
193 Bilal Powell NYJ RB 66 177 181 190 202
197 Toby Gerhart MIN RB 67 233 188 160 242
203 Willis McGahee DEN RB 68 161 228 178 162
218 Chris Ivory NO RB 69 241 234 176 222
228 Alex Green GB RB 70 244 237 169 233
233 Leon Washington SEA RB 71 183 240 238 223
236 Ricky Williams RB 72 227 246 245 215
240 Javon Ringer TEN RB 73 251 198 224 270 - Johnson still holding out
243 Isaac Redman PIT RB 74 247 244 194 247
246 Cadillac Williams STL RB 75 252 247 204 234
My strategy in most leagues will be to go RB early and target the value plays highlighted below. I really, really like the value of Ray Rice and Frank Gore in particular. I also like to backload my drafts with high risk/high reward picks later in the draft.
LINK to QB Strategy Thread
This is ADP data from FBG's consensus data for PPR leagues
Red = Sell or Overvalued
Green = Buy or Undervalued
Consensus Name Team Pos Expert MFL Calc non-PPR
1 Arian Foster HOU RB 1 1 1 1 2
2 Adrian Peterson MIN RB 2 3 2 2 1
3 Chris Johnson TEN RB 3 2 3 3 3
4 Jamaal Charles KC RB 4 5 4 4 4
5 Ray Rice BAL RB 5 4 6 5 5 - softer schedule, low risk, high ceiling
6 LeSean McCoy PHI RB 6 6 5 7 7 - Eagels will lighten his load
9 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX RB 7 10 10 8 9 - leary until the knee is 100%
11 Darren McFadden OAK RB 8 16 11 9 13 - should be going higher
13 Frank Gore SF RB 9 14 18 11 16 - hip fracture created value
15 Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB 10 19 14 13 10
17 Matt Forte CHI RB 11 20 16 15 20
19 Steven Jackson STL RB 12 17 21 17 17
22 Michael Turner ATL RB 13 26 26 18 15
24 Peyton Hillis CLE RB 14 32 22 19 22
28 Ryan Mathews SD RB 15 44 28 22 36 - starting to develop soft/lazy reputation
31 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 16 33 33 29 32 - don't expect much to change
37 Jahvid Best DET RB 17 45 35 30 49
43 DeAngelo Williams CAR RB 18 42 52 37 39
46 LeGarrette Blount TB RB 19 71 42 33 35
47 Jonathan Stewart CAR RB 20 53 44 34 41
50 Shonn Greene NYJ RB 21 51 50 50 38
53 Knowshon Moreno DEN RB 22 55 54 45 47
54 Mark Ingram NO RB 23 49 48 44 52
61 Felix Jones DAL RB 24 72 59 63 61
62 Ryan Grant GB RB 25 68 76 61 60 - classic coming back from injury value
63 Daniel Thomas MIA RB 26 70 65 62 65
64 Cedric Benson CIN RB 27 76 67 65 57
65 Fred Jackson BUF RB 28 57 77 72 68
70 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 29 75 69 77 71
75 Joseph Addai IND RB 30 77 80 73 73 - Carter will have job in second half
78 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE RB 31 82 83 86 67
85 Mikel Leshoure DET RB 32 89 89 79 85
87 Ryan Torain WAS RB 33 84 97 91 80
89 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 34 107 79 88 97
92 Ryan Williams ARI RB 35 73 84 94 86 - both AZ backs preseent upside
93 Brandon Jacobs NYG RB 36 81 113 104 88
97 James Starks GB RB 37 119 92 95 99
98 Pierre Thomas NO RB 38 126 107 100 102
100 Mike Tolbert SD RB 39 106 110 97 96
111 Reggie Bush MIA RB 40 103 114 111 116 - great PPR value
113 LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ RB 41 129 124 107 115
116 Chris Wells ARI RB 42 133 101 112 107 - AZ starter, soft schedule
118 Michael Bush OAK RB 43 121 117 119 105
123 Roy Helu WAS RB 44 185 105 109 119
124 Ronnie Brown PHI RB 45 134 145 115 123 - great upside behind smaller McCoy
126 Delone Carter IND RB 46 109 127 135 142 - most talented RB on team
128 Rashad Jennings JAX RB 47 130 126 138 137 - MJD handcuff
134 Danny Woodhead NE RB 48 186 146 122 138
137 Montario Hardesty CLE RB 49 149 128 132 135
138 Shane Vereen NE RB 50 105 133 127 160 - most explosive back on roster
144 Bernard Scott CIN RB 51 120 162 144 191
145 Darren Sproles NO RB 52 111 189 147 176
146 Donald Brown IND RB 53 189 154 142 168
149 Demarco Murray DAL RB 54 154 139 140 141
155 Mike Goodson CAR RB 55 194 143 139 175
158 Thomas Jones KC RB 56 162 193 145 139
159 Tashard Choice DAL RB 57 173 172 146 173 - cheap Felix cuff
162 Tim Hightower WAS RB 58 141 220 164 193
168 Marion Barber CHI RB 59 150 221 175 197 - can run better than Forte
173 Jacquizz Rodgers ATL RB 60 176 174 153 210
176 Jason Snelling ATL RB 61 228 166 148 206
180 Ben Tate HOU RB 62 229 187 165 195 - lots of reward if Foster goes down
183 Justin Forsett SEA RB 63 230 223 152 211
184 Jerome Harrison RB 64 200 225 166 232
187 Kendall Hunter SF RB 65 226 156 158 217
193 Bilal Powell NYJ RB 66 177 181 190 202
197 Toby Gerhart MIN RB 67 233 188 160 242
203 Willis McGahee DEN RB 68 161 228 178 162
218 Chris Ivory NO RB 69 241 234 176 222
228 Alex Green GB RB 70 244 237 169 233
233 Leon Washington SEA RB 71 183 240 238 223
236 Ricky Williams RB 72 227 246 245 215
240 Javon Ringer TEN RB 73 251 198 224 270 - Johnson still holding out
243 Isaac Redman PIT RB 74 247 244 194 247
246 Cadillac Williams STL RB 75 252 247 204 234
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I'd take him right after Best.
