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Dynasty Developmental Prospect Top 20 (1 Viewer)

bengalbuck

Footballguy
I compete in a few dynasty leagues that allow the drafting of a limited number of college developmental prospects and compiled rankings for recent rookie/developmental drafts. Even for leagues that don’t have developmental players, with college football starting up, it is time to start scouting the next class of rookies for the April draft (and a few sophomore for the 2013 draft). Below is my personal top 20 rankings for a PPR dynasty league (with 1 QB):

1. Trent Richardson (Jr. RB, Alabama)- An easy #1 as the guy has pretty much everything you look for in a top fantasy RB prospect: Legit NFL measurables with great size and legit 4.4 speed. Pedigree as a top recruit who made an immediate impact as a freshman. Production in a pro-style offense at Alabama. Physically, he is more impressive than Mark Ingram but I don’t think he has quite the same vision/balance that Ingram does. NFL Comp: Rashard Mendenhall with better hands. Close to a 1st round lock and wouldn’t be a shock to see him go top 10 overall.



2. Andrew Luck (RS Jr. QB, Stanford)- Pretty much a lock to go 1st overall in the NFL draft but likely will fall a bit in rookie drafts next year due to position. Once some of the RB/WRs behind him solidify their draft rankings, they may pass him. I have him 2nd overall for now due to the fact I see him as a can’t miss guy and also because he brings fantasy upside as a runner that makes him special as a prospect. He is a big guy with great speed who could eventually separate himself from the pack of top young QBs (Bradford, Stafford, etc.) due to the fact that he could match those guys through the air (assuming he’s drafted by the right team) and also put up Aaron Rodgers type numbers on the ground (350 yards, 5 TDs). NFL Comp: Aaron Rodgers with better size.

3. Alshon Jeffery (Jr. WR, South Carolina)- A huge guy who catches everything and has put up extremely impressive numbers against great competition in the SEC. I have him a notch below AJ Green and Julio Jones as a prospect because he doesn’t seem to have their speed. But he’s more physical than AJ and has better hands than Julio so the upside is there. NFL Comp: He could be a Terrell Owens/Sydney Rice type big WR and a great fantasy prospect. I also have some concerns that he could get too big like Mike Williams (Seattle) as there are reports that he’s added even more weight over the offseason. Not adding any more bad weight and his 40 time will be key to whether he’s a top 10 type pick or a 2nd rounder.

4. Justin Blackmon (RS Jr. WR, Oklahoma St.)- He put together one of the greatest statistical seasons ever for a WR last year with a ton of catches, yards and TDs. He also has less questions from a measurable perspective than Jeffery as he’s displayed his deep speed on the field. He also dominated his 1-on-1 matchup with 1st round CB Prince Amukamara. The concern is how he’ll translate to an NFL offense. NFL Comp: The obvious one is Dez Bryant minus the crazy and that’s clearly his upside. There has to be some concern about a Rashaun Woods/Michael Crabtree (minus the attitude) comparison also though. If you watch his film, he runs a lot of routes similar to what Crabtree and Woods ran in college where he’s just wide open and getting the ball short and running with it. Will he be able to separate from NFL DBs on normal routes? Like Jeffery, I see his range as top 10 to early 2nd round.

5. Marcus Lattimore (So. RB, South Carolina)- Note that Lattimore’s a true sophomore, so you have to wait 2 years for him, unlike these other top prospects. That being said, if your league rules allow it, I would (and did in one league) take him over Lamichael James and any RB prospect not named Trent Richardson. It’s hard to say after only 1 season, but I see Lattimore as a pretty can’t miss guy. He has great pedigree as the top recruit in the country out of one of the top HS programs in the country. He put up great numbers in the SEC as a true freshman and looked on a par to the league’s other top backs, despite his age. He does everything well and has great natural vision and feet. For a guy his size, he’s incredible catching the ball. NFL Comp: A lot of people will compare him to Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden, but he simply doesn’t have elite speed like those guys. A more apt comparison would be Mark Ingram with better receiving skills or maybe a bigger Ray Rice. He’s a guy like Rice who can be both a workhorse on the ground and also give his future NFL team 70+ catches if that is the type of offense they run.

6. Lamichael James (RS Jr. RB, Oregon)- An absolutely electric player with elite speed, great open field moves and huge production in the wide open Ducks offense. The big questions concern his size and his ability to run inside. The evaluation is especially tough because the Oregon offense is unlike anything in the NFL and the runs just aren’t comparable. NFL Comp: He flashes some Chris Johnson like ability with some surprising power inside at times and the obvious ability to take any play to the house, but does his size limit him to more of a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles type role in the NFL? Even best-case scenario, I doubt he ends up a 300 carry guy like CJ2k, but if he can prove he’s not just a change of pace guy, maybe he could end up as an ultra-productive 200 carry, 50 catch guy like Jamaal Charles last season.

7. Michael Floyd (Sr. WR, Notre Dame)- Just a super solid WR that has been productive for 3 seasons already in an NFL-style offense. He has great size and is extremely good on jump balls. Some concerns about his speed and the 40 will be important for him. He has also had some brushes with the law off the field, including a DUI. However, I think the character concerns are a little overblown. He’s also been injury prone throughout his career. NFL Comp: Tampa Mike Williams with a little less quickness and run after the catch ability as his upside, maybe a Vincent Brown type guy as his floor. Just really solid overall and I’m not scared off by the off field stuff, but I don’t see him as ever being more than a WR2 in fantasy.

8. Jeff Fuller (Sr. WR, Texas A&M)- This is a guy I think is really underrated. He doesn’t have quite the pedigree and early production of Floyd, but I think he compares favorably to him as a prospect as he has better size and might have a bit more speed. He looked great in the bowl game matched up against CB Patrick Peterson, but the concern is whether as a big bodied WR, he is quick enough to create separation in the NFL. NFL Comp: Maybe a less smooth but more physical Sydney Rice. Worst case I see him kind of on a par with a guy like Leonard Hankerson next draft as a 3rd round type. Nice safe pick with upside.

9. Lamar Miller (RS So. RB, Miami)- While I list him behind WRs like Floyd/Fuller, this is the type of high upside guy I gravitate towards and target in devy drafts. He has a great pedigree as a top recruit who battled Trent Richardson for the top spot in the Florida HS RB rankings but fell off the radar a bit as he redshirted his first year and was part of a timeshare with a number of other backs for the Hurricanes last year. He did show some real flashes when he got his chances though, especially in a big game against Va. Tech. He has legit, proven track speed as a sub 4.4 guy and good size as a solid, well-built 200+ guy. The one thing I don’t like on video is that he doesn’t seem to be as natural an open field runner as guys like Jahvid Best, Lamichael James, etc. as he seems to have to slow down a bit to change directions. NFL Comp: His upside is similar to some of the great Miami backs of the past like Clinton Portis (very similar body types), but he hasn’t proven he can be productive on the college level yet. Very risky because he could not have it but if I see him rush for 1,000+ yards this season and show vision and good feet, he’ll move up the list as he’ll likely declare and could project as an early 2nd round pick.

10. David Wilson (RS So., Va. Tech)- I could basically take the writeup on Lamar Miller and copy and paste it here. Big-time recruit. Legit sub 4.4 speed. Caught up in a timeshare with Ryan Williams and Darren Evans, though he was a bit more productive than Lamar Miller. I like his change of direction better than Miller’s, but like Lamar’s build and PR/KR production a bit better but very similar prospects to me. NFL Comp: Could be a Jamaal Charles type guy. Very similar build and speed. He’s a little skinny which makes me worry about injuries and whether he can be a workhorse, but he has that same Charles-like explosiveness.

11. Michael Dyer (So. RB Auburn)- Another guy like Lattimore who you would have to wait 2 years for, so he’s a little lower in the rankings than he otherwise might be simply due to that fact. He’s a short, stocky guy who runs really low and is hard to get a good hit on. He also seems to have legit sub 4.5 speed as a guy well over 200 pounds. He also showed big production as a 1,000 yard guy as a true freshman in the SEC. Has the pedigree of a top recruit as he and Lattimore were neck and neck out of HS as the top RB recruit in the nation. NFL comp: He reminds me of MJD but he hasn’t yet proven he can catch the ball like MJD can. Another guy who could shoot up the rankings with a great season.

12. Doug Martin (Sr. RB, Boise St.)- A guy I am higher on than most. He is a workout warrior similar to Trent Richardson and has shown great hands like Lattimore has. The obvious questions revolve around his level of competition and whether he’s just a product of the high powered Boise offense. NFL comp: I like him better than guys like Bilal Powell and Jamie Harper who were 4th rounders this past year due to his natural pass catching ability but he’s probably in that general class right now. Could move up if he runs a great 40 and can produce against teams like Georgia (tomorrow night, 8pm, ESPN).

13. Cyrus Gray (Sr. RB, Texas A&M)- This is a guy who I am a bit lower on that most probably are. He’s good at everything and puts up very solid numbers. He just doesn’t strike me as great at anything and with fantasy football at the RB position moving more towards the explosive guys, I like the upside of the young RBs on this list more than the steady, solid talent of Gray. NFL Comp: Maybe a guy like Cedric Benson who is solidly built, runs with some power and has solid speed. I think this guy ends up playing in the NFL for a long time and if he falls into a great NFL situation, he could put up numbers.

14. Ryan Broyles (SR. WR, Oklahoma)- A guy who has put up insane numbers as a WR and a return man in the wide open Oklahoma offense. He has legit speed and solid strength but he’s a small guy and there has to be concern that he’s a system guy. A ton of his catches are WR screens and Oklahoma WRs (Mark Clayton, Travis Wilson, Malcolm Kelly, etc.) haven’t lived up to their draft position. NFL Comp: He’s not quite as explosive as Percy Harvin, but it isn’t out of the question he turns into an all-purpose guy as a slot WR and KR/PR guy with added value in return yard leagues. Mark Clayton also makes a lot of sense as a comp.

15. Ryan Tannehill (Sr. QB, Texas A&M)- I like this guy a lot more than the bigger name guys like Matt Barkley and Landry Jones. He is a fantastic athlete as he actually started last season as a WR. He also has a great arm and surprisingly good accuracy for a guy who just moved to the position. In fantasy terms, his mobility gives him an upside at QB that exceeds everyone but Luck in my opinion.

16. Dwight Jones- (Sr. WR, North Carolina)- UNC has been putting out the WR talent in recent years with guys like Hakeem Nicks and Greg Little and Jones seems to be the next in line. He has great size and speed and put together a couple huge games for UNC. Kind of came out of nowhere as a junior so I can’t rank him above the other senior WRs like Broyles and Floyd who have done it for 3 seasons.

17. Robert Woods (So. WR, USC)- A guy you’d have to wait 2 years on but one to watch as he has that Desean Jackson like explosiveness.

18. Chris Polk (Jr. RB, Washington)- Great size and seems to have good speed as well. This is a guy who I admittedly haven’t seen a lot of but who may move up the rankings with another good season.

19. Devier Posey (Sr. WR, Ohio State)- A big-time recruit with a nice size/speed combo who was primed to have a huge season for the Buckeyes before getting caught up in the tattoo scandal and earning a 5 game suspension. He has made strides and improved each year and it will be interesting to see if that remains the case. Though a bit less reliable, he projects as a better prospect than Brian Robiskie at the same stages of their careers.

20. Christine Michael (Jr. RB, Texas A&M)- A highly rated recruit who has been productive but hasn’t been able to beat out Cyrus Gray. Better speed than Gray and a bit more upside, but for now I’ll go with Gray’s productivity over Michael’s hype.

NR. Juron Criner- (Sr. WR, Arizona)- Great size and speed and he makes some spectacular catches. He also seems to drop some easy ones at times. Criner had some undisclosed issues this offseason, similar to some of the reports with Maclin so I avoided him in devy drafts, but he is a candidate to move way up this list if he is back and healthy this season (I haven’t checked in a while for updates, so if anyone knows what’s going on, please let me know). For now, he’s not ranked due to the possible medical situation.



NR. Knile Davis (Jr. RB, Arkansas)- A guy with great size/speed and production last year in the SEC. He’d high on the list were it not for the devastating ankle injury he suffered in fall camp. There are some rumors it is career threatening and he’s a guy who has had multiple ankle injuries in his past. Like Mikel Leshoure in the NFL, definitely in wait and see mode to see if he comes back and how he looks when he does. For now, he’s not ranked due to the injury.

Some others on my radar who could enter the rankings soon: Monte Ball (RB, Wisconsin), Andre Ellington (RB, Clemson), Landry Jones (QB, Oklahoma), Matt Barkley (QB, USC, Orson Charles (TE, Georgia), Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri)

 
Good read. Richardson and Lattimore are can't miss studs, Jeffery and Blackmon look like #1 WRs, and Luck is the next Aaron Rodgers. Not much depth though, but with all the studs it doesnt matter.

 
Although I personally disagree with a few of the rankings, in total they are very well done, nice post. :thumbup:

First, I'm not so sure Lattimore is as can't miss as a lot of people suggest. His tackle breaking ability is no doubt outstanding, he has loose hips which allow him to run at angles and helps his subtle jukeing ability which he is very good at, and his vision is excellent. That's all great, but my worries with Lattimore deal with his speed or lack there of. His long speed is mediocre, but even worse than that I think his quickness is sub-par for NFL running backs, and I think good quickness is one of the most important qualities to have.

The other disagreement is with LaMichael James. I just don't think he's big enough to be anything more than a COP back. I think Oregon's unconventional offense hides that more than if he were playing in a NFL style offense.

 
'Time Kibitzer said:
Although I personally disagree with a few of the rankings, in total they are very well done, nice post. :thumbup:First, I'm not so sure Lattimore is as can't miss as a lot of people suggest. His tackle breaking ability is no doubt outstanding, he has loose hips which allow him to run at angles and helps his subtle jukeing ability which he is very good at, and his vision is excellent. That's all great, but my worries with Lattimore deal with his speed or lack there of. His long speed is mediocre, but even worse than that I think his quickness is sub-par for NFL running backs, and I think good quickness is one of the most important qualities to have. The other disagreement is with LaMichael James. I just don't think he's big enough to be anything more than a COP back. I think Oregon's unconventional offense hides that more than if he were playing in a NFL style offense.
Thanks for the comments, both are valid concerns. With Lattimore, I agree completely with the long speed part, thus the Ingram comparison. I expect him to be a 4.5 to 4.55 guy at the combine. I'll have to watch more closely on the quickness. I never noticed it as an issue, but I may be wrong. The one thing I forgot to mention with Lattimore is he seems to have an incredible work ethic and great intangibles so I trust him as a guy I want on my roster more than some other guys and believe he'll be able to improve on some of his freshman year weaknesses.With James, I think you've pinpointed the major issue. Is he Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles or Chris Johnson? That was the same question people had about Jamaal Charles when he came out of Texas and fell to the 3rd round of the draft, so a lot of times even NFL teams have a hard time telling which guys are COP and which ones can be more than that. It's not easy and I don't claim to have the answer.As for the specific ranking of LaMichael, its basically a split the difference type deal. If it was 100% that he could be a 200+ carry back, he'd be #1 or 2. If it was 100% that he's just a 3rd down type back, he'd be 15th-20th. So I took both views into account, but think the upside if he can handle the load justifies a ranking somewhere in the top 10 and that's personally where I'd be willing to take the risk on him in an actual draft. After the top 4 or 5, its really hard to separate the next 10 guys and in my mind they are all pretty even, just depends on personal preference, team positional needs and how much of a risk-taker you are in your rookie drafts.I wanted to get something kind of concrete down on paper (or in this case on the web) just so that I can look back on things after the season to see which guys I missed completely on and hopefully learn from those mistakes going forward. Also thought now was the best timing for it since this is the only weekend of the year with college football and no NFL and thus more people might check some of these guys out.
 
I'll add one more thing that perhaps explains a few of the rankings. I tend to think the RB position in the NFL in general is headed a little bit more towards the smaller speed backs as the larger part of RBBC's, sort of like the KC setup. I'm sure my rankings at RB reflect that bias on my part as I'm on the lookout more for the next CJ/Charles/McCoy type when drafting than I am the next Blount/Shonn Greene type.

 
'Time Kibitzer said:
The other disagreement is with LaMichael James. I just don't think he's big enough to be anything more than a COP back. I think Oregon's unconventional offense hides that more than if he were playing in a NFL style offense.
With James, I think you've pinpointed the major issue. Is he Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles or Chris Johnson? That was the same question people had about Jamaal Charles when he came out of Texas and fell to the 3rd round of the draft, so a lot of times even NFL teams have a hard time telling which guys are COP and which ones can be more than that. It's not easy and I don't claim to have the answer.
I think I have part of the answer for you. Like Charles, James runs track in the offseason. He doesn't live in the weight room like the rest of his teammates. And, like Charles will be a bit too skinny and light when he enters the NFL. Like Charles, after an NFL offseason or two will put on 10-15 pounds (mostly lower body) and will be ready to ignite FFBers hopes. James definitely has "it" when running the ball, and just needs to be a little heavier/stronger to play on Sundays and the track focused offseason gives me optimism that it will happen. Pass on James in your rookie or devy drafts, and get him at a discount from his owners after his 1st NFL season is less than inspiring.
 
Good topic!

TBH, I don't see what all the hype is about with Lattimore. He doesn't have the best build and his YPC was pretty ho-hum last year. On his best days he reminds me a bit of Fred Taylor, but I much prefer Michael Dyer. Dyer to me is a lot like Rashard Mendenhall. Not the most elusive guy, but good straight-line speed and an ideal build. Kid is an absolute rock and looks like he'll be more durable in the NFL than Lattimore (JMO). I have him as the top 2013 guy right now and a surefire NFL starter down the line.

On the topic of South Carolina, I'm also not as high on Alshon Jeffery as most. Big guy with good strength and great hands, but...he's not the smoothest runner. I could see him struggling with his route running and YAC. I'll try to watch more of his games this season. For now I clearly prefer Justin Blackmon. Blackmon is like 95% of Dez, and if you knew how much I liked Dez as a prospect, you'd take that as effusive praise. Big kid who looks much more nimble and fluid than Jeffery (though he's not as tall). I see him being kind of like a Dwayne Bowe/Anquan Boldin/Mike Williams TB type in the NFL. Not incredible speed, but good enough with a pretty big frame to be that possession/YAC kind of WR.

Good call on Doug Martin. I like him as well. Good combination of bulk, productivity, and quickness. He is not the most elegant runner, but at the end of the day, it's results that matter and he's shown the ability to break tackles and pick up second chance yards. I see him as a 3rd-4th round pick who can excel if he gets an opportunity. Sort of like a suped-up version of Tashard Choice.

I'm not super high on Fuller. He has an NFL build and good production. I just don't see special qualities. He's not super fast. He's not a threat after the catch. He seems like strictly a #2 man in the NFL. That's fine, but I'd rather swing for the fences with a dev pick.

Similar story with Broyles. In a best case scenario, he can be Steve Smith (NYG). That's what his game is like. Short-yardage possession WR who can pick up some YAC. I rate him above Fuller, but he's a second tier type of player IMO. As you alluded to, Oklahoma is a friendly system that made another mediocre WR with similar skills look phenomenal (Mark Clayton). I still rate Broyles as a solid prospect though and I think he can produce in a pass-heavy offense where he's not expected to single-handedly dominate.

On the 2012 RB front, I'm intrigued by Cameron Marshall (Arizona State) and Edwin Baker (Michigan State). Both have NFL builds and decent college resumes. Baker is a bit like Shonn Greene. A compact bowling ball with pretty good feet and deceptive speed. He's not super explosive, but his game has few glaring weaknesses. Marshall has a higher ceiling and is one of the few RBs in this class who seems to have first round potential. Big kid who can motor. Think Jonathan Stewart. Issue for me with him is elusiveness. He's not always the most fluid back, but he has definitely shown the ability to make quick cuts. I expect his draft profile to increase considerably this season.

Another 2013 name that no one is talking about right now...Keenan Allen. For my money, this kid has the highest ceiling of any WR prospect in the Pac-12 right now. That doesn't mean he's a safe pick, but it means I think he's most likely of the group to become a frontline prospect. Big, sturdy WR who came to Cal as a 5 star safety recruit and switched to WR. He was a key player for them last season as a true freshman. I went to the Stanford/Cal game last season and it seemed like Cal's offensive gameplan was basically "get the ball to Keenan Allen and hope that he does something amazing." It didn't work for them on that afternoon, but it speaks volumes about the player's ability that he was already the most talented player on the offense as a true frosh. I expect big things...

Anyhow, the guys I'd really be looking to land right now...

Trent Richardson - Stone cold lock and easy #1 pick. Can't understand taking anyone else.

Andrew Luck - The real deal. Accurate and poised. Effortlessly manages the offense and showed a previously unseen clutch element last year.

Justin Blackmon - Solid first round talent who produces elite stats and passes the eyeball test.

Michael Dyer - Not flashy, but still a lock for a starting role on Sundays. Could play in the NFL tomorrow, but will have to wait two years.

 
No place for Denard Robinson in the NFL?
I'd guess so but I don't see him as a top prospect. Maybe he's comparable to a guy like Armanti Edwards (as a Michigan fan, I bet you remember him) who the Panthers took in the 3rd and are attempting to turn into a WR....but no way I rank him as one of the top 8 or 10 WR prospects in CFB at this point.
 
Some videos I put up for the FBG Board.

Currently working on a few other prospects. Will put them up as the week progresses.

Tex

 
I'm hoping a receiving steps up for the 2013 class, to pair with Dyer and Lattimore.
There are three in the Pac-12 alone:Robert Woods, USCKeenan Allen, CalPaul Richardson, Colorado 2013 is shaping up to be a monster year. Of course, we say that about every class and then half the guys get hurt or go back to school unexpectedly. :mellow:
 

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