Concept Coop
Footballguy
1 pt PPR Dynasty Rankings - Top 15
Tier 1 - 12/7/2011
1. Cam Newton:
Newton is in a position to the be the most unique fantasy asset during the duration of his career. When we think back to other dynasty sustaining players, like LT, Peyton, Randy, TO - the things they did on the field to produce more fantasy points than their peers, their peers also did. In other words, LT simply did what RBs do more effectively than other RBs. Peyton simply threw for more yards/TDs than other QBs.
Cam offers a freaky potential that no other player in the league can offer: the ability to produce based on a unique skill set that his peers don't and will never posses. He is on pace to throw for well over 4,000 yards, throw more TDs than INTs, rush for 600 yards and 14 TDs. That would be amazing for a veteran, let alone a rookie with no training camp, no WR2, only 1 year of major college football, who started from day 1.
I have watched Cam play a lot, there is no player I would rather watch in the NFL right now. All of the potential he offers amounts to nothing if he doesn't have what it takes to win NFL games for 10+ years. I personally have not doubt that he can. His personality scared some people off during the scouting process. He seemed to have a warped opinion of who he was and what he was capable of doing. If the 1984 NBA draft process was the spectacle that the 2011 NFL draft was, Michael Jordan would have had a lot of those concerns too. That chip that Jordan carried with him, justified or not, that made him believe he was going to be the best ever, I think Cam has as well.
To address the injury concerns briefly, I don't have any. He is smart and rarely takes open field hits. He is as big or bigger than most of the people hitting him and slides/gets out of bounds when he needs to. I would be much more concerned about a pocket QB that held onto the ball for too long. This is not a Michael Vick situation.
Think back to what Cam did at Auburn, what he meant to that team and university - think how special his year was. That is how special his rookie season has been, in my opinion, it's clearly not a fluke. He is a special athlete. As high as his price to acquire is right now, if he is as legit as I think he is, it won't be this low again until his age becomes a concern.
2. Aaron Rodgers:
Like Calvin Johnson, there is not much to say about Rodgers. I will explain my ranking of Rodgers below Cam, however. Rodgers doesn't have the upside that Cam does, as crazy as that sounds. The Green Bay Packers will likely, at one point during Aaron's career, need to rely more on the run game. The elite QB seasons, like Rodgers is having, often come back down to earth. See Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as examples. Both of them had ridiculous seasons and both came back down to earth, while remaining elite. Rodgers has produced more VBD this season, half way through, than he did all of last year. Rodgers can stay the best QB in the NFL and still not do what he is doing this season - a lot of things are going right, in other words. Back to Cam, Cam has the potential to be Rodgers, if Rodgers was the goal line back for his team. Tier 2. (Big drop here)
3. Matthew Stafford:
Stafford is not the QB that those ranked right below him are, yet. He may never be. But his age, physical skill, team situation, and general potential place him here in my rankings. He has 10+ years to amass the VBD that guys like Brady and Bress will over the duration of their careers. It is a pretty safe bet, actually. This ranking is the perfect example of "Vacuum" rankings. To a lot of owners, Brees and Brady are much more valuable than Stafford. To others, whose teams are rebuilding, Stafford has much more value than older, more proven options.
4. Drew Brees:
Consistent. Productive. MVP-caliber. Super Bowl Winning. VBD producing. 32 years old.
5. Tom Brady:
Consistent. Productive. MVP. Multiple Super Bowl rings. VBD producing. 34 years old.
6. Michael Vick:
The injury concerns have not been quite as bad, but that has hurt his fantasy production. He is not getting the red zone carries he once was, and has yet to run one in. While that running TDs will come - how many? LeSean McCoy is starting to cut into Vick's value, the way Vick did to so many RBs. And after Vick's play suffered due to injury last season, Philly can't be happier about that.
Tier 3.
7. Ben Roethlisberger:
While his numbers have been up, a lot, and while he has an elite target in Wallace, I can't help but think the Steelers are going to fix the run game and rely on it, along with it's defense (which also needs fixing). Ben finds himself here because his ceiling is not as high as those above him, but his age keeps him in the conversation.
8. Philip Rivers:
This season is in direct contrast with last: the running game is carrying it's weight, and Rivers has been a bit of a hindrance to the team. He is not playing well and has been throwing more INTs than TDs. But yesterday showed what he can do for his fantasy owners, when his teams needs to score in a hurry. His value is somewhere in-between what he has shown this year and last. Like Ben, his age keeps him here, while his current production suggests he could be lower.
9. Tony Romo:
His 36 TD season seems like a long time ago. Romo has the ability to produce points and the weapons around him to get it done. His offensive line has been a big issue and will need to be fixed before Romo threatens to lead the league in TD passes again. Along with his line, I don't think Jason Garrett is helping Romo owners much either. The offense routinely moves the ball down the field without getting into the end zone. The offense is not balanced and seems far too sporadic for my tastes. Along with this, they have not been attacking down the field. Still, I think Romo has a few 30 TD seasons left, if the offensive line and Jason Garrett will allow it.
Tier 4:
10. Matt Ryan:
To think this guy was being drafted as a top 5 dynasty QB at one point. He is not the player his rookie campaign suggested he would be. But, he should be above baseline, if only barely, for 10 years. While that might not win leagues, it does provide value and consistency. There is potential for Ryan to improve and you have to love what Julio Jones offers as a weapon.
11. Josh Freeman:
See Matt Ryan. Replace "rookie campaign" with "sophomore campaign" and remove Julio and Roddy White from the equation. 2010 was a perfect storm for Freeman and his owners and I don't know how often I see that happening in the future. But he is a starting QB who has shown promise and is only 23 years old. The team has room for improvement around Freeman as well - better weapons will go a long way.
12: Sam Bradford:
There is a theme for this tier: Young players that have shown promise but are currently struggling. Many - like they did with Ryan, Freeman, and Flacco - anointed Bradford prematurely. He is talented and I expect him to have a solid career.
Tier 5:
13. Tim Tebow:
When Tebow has been on the field, he is the highest scoring QB in those games. He just looks awful. I want him to do well, am very aware of his potential, but he isn't cutting it as an NFL QB. His mechanics seem impossible to correct and he is damningly inaccurate. If I thought there was a 50% for Tebow to pan out, I would rank him near Romo and Big Ben. I put those odds around 20%, so here he is.
14. Eli Manning:
I feel like I am disrespecting him, by putting him here. I think those ranked ahead of him are likely to amount to a QB of his caliber, if they are lucky. Manning doesn't get the respect that he deserves and has consistently produced VBD. That said, those ahead of him offer more potential. After the top 6-7, potential is what you look for at the QB position, as very few offer meaningful VBD - there is little separation.
15. Andy Dalton:
2nd round QBs don't pan out and Dalton was a game manager at TCU...or so I thought. Dalton has looked good, the Bengals are winning, he has a great target in Green, but I feel like I have seen this before. If Dalton was a first round draft pick from a big school, people would be ranking him as they did Ryan and Bradford during their rookie seasons - he is winning and performing as they did. Dalton, for whatever reason, seems to offer a lower ceiling and I can't put my finger on why. He is a guy I will need to watch more of to get a feel on. Because I don't think many dynasty owners do have a feel on him, he is the kind of guy that doing your homework on could payoff majorly. He can be had cheaper than guys like Ryan, Flacco and Bradford could when they were doing what Dalton is.
WR - 10/26/2011
Tier 1
1. Calvin Johnson:
I won't waste your time. He is the safest investment in fantasy football and the most uniquely talented.
Tier 2
2.Mike Wallace:
He is a shining example of what speed can do in the NFL. He is quickly evolving into a complete wide receiver and his receptions are increasing, while he continues to hit homeruns.
3. Dez Bryant:
Bryant is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL, and one of the youngest WR1s. He is aggressive in running his routes, fighting for the ball in the air, and especially with the ball in his hands. It is easy to project big things out of Bryant, who has the tools to reach the first tier. His age greatly helps to offset injury and personal concerns. There is room for error, in other words.
4. Hakeem Nicks:
I rank Nicks here because his combination of youth, production, situation and talent suggests that I do so. I will say that I have concerns. The Giants, with Eli, produce numbers for whomever lines up as the #1 target (Plax, Smith, Manningham, Cruz...). I can see a number of wide receivers matching Nicks' numbers, given his situation. That said, what reason is there to think Nicks won't be the number 1 in NYG for some time? Ranking Nicks is much like ranking Reggie Wayne in the past - both would be great players outside of their situations, but would potentially lose value.
Tier 3
5. Larry Fitzgerald:
Like Adrian Peterson, Larry is potentially the most talented player at his position, stuck in a bad situation, losing ground to younger options with more time to amass VBD. I don't want to pretend that 28 is old for a WR with Larry's skill set - it's not. But, there are younger options currently matching Larry's production, who are projected to have 3-5 years to of extra value. Because Larry is 28, and has 2 years on Welker, he is in his own tier. This ranking is based off of my assumption that the Cardinals fix their QB situation by the start of the 2013 season, giving Larry a couple seasons of top 3 VBD.
Tier 4
6. Wes Welker:
I want to preface this statement by saying that I don't know if I have the balls to apply this ranking to my leagues. While I stand by the ranking, and acknowledge that if Welker can continue this for 3-4 years, he will be worth it, there is a lot of risk involved. One 3-4 week injury is damaging, as this ranking relies on a very high VBD, per game. But:
Wes Welker will help you more, if not much more, than any WR over the next 3 years. The VBD he is currently producing, would take twice as long for even low level WR1s. Meaning, Welker will do in 3, what it takes even good WRs to do in 6+.
7. A.J. Green:
10 years is a lot of time to score points. If you believe Green is going to be a top 5-10 WR in this league, you should value him here, as he is then very likely to score enough VBD to warrant this ranking. There is room for error, and time for the Bengals to figure things out. It doesn't hurt that Green is currently producing VORP, while offering massive potential in the future. Note that I have removed "bust" from the list of concerns. If you are not sold, his ranking would be much lower.
8. Julio Jones:
See A.J. Green.
Tier 5
9. Greg Jennings:
His age and current production make this a pretty easy ranking. He is producing as a solid WR1, is younger than the likes of Andre/Roddy, and older than Green and Jones. He is removing concerns with consistency, as Green Bay is passing enough to keep everybody fed. My biggest concern with Jennings, is the potential that the Packers find a reason to lean on the run more. I worry about where the targets will go, when there aren't as many to go around.
10. Andre Johnson:
Much like Welker, Andre is projected to score enough VBD during the next 3-4 years to match a 6-7 year run by those ranked just behind him. One of the most talented players at the position, who simply doesn't have the time left to hold his former tier 1 placement. I don't think he will score quite as much as Welker and I worry about him continually missing games here and there. I think the two justify the tier difference between the two 30 year olds.
11: Dwayne Bowe:
He is proving that last year was not a fluke and is putting up WR1 numbers in a horrible situation. I do think there is concern that, like Roddy last year, Bowe is benefiting the lack of quality targets in the KC offense. There is potential for KC to find pieces to take targets from Bowe, without finding a QB, like Brees and Rodgers, who can keep multiple options fed. Roddy White is a clear example of this happening.
12. Miles Austin:
I believe Austin to be one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. His combination of size, strength, and speed is very underrated. While starting, healthy, and playing with a healthy Romo, Ausitn has been the most productive WR over that span. The concern is that there hasn't been a healthy Dez Bryant for much of that. The Cowboys are starting to use Bryant as the #1 WR and that is, and could continue to, cut into Austin's production. Austin will no doubt lose red zone targets, as Bryant is one of the best in the league and more equipped to convert than Austin is. There is reason to think there could be enough targets to go around in the offense to keep both Austin and Bryant fed. But there is concern that Dez will be fed first.
13. Roddy White:
This is almost unthinkable, considering where White would have been ranked a year ago. I think we can determine, that while Roddy is one of the most talented WRs in the league, his monster season was due in large part to the number of targets he received. He is currently struggling to produce WR1 points on a weekly basis. That is not a good sign for a 29 year old WR. His margin for error is very small and his owners can't hope to keep even this value, should Roddy not rebound very strong in 2012.
14. Vincent Jackson:
The Chargers are relying more on the run, and it has destroyed the visions that many had of Rivers throwing the ball 30+ times a game, many to the talented Vincent Jackson. Gates is back and he has traditionally eaten in to Jackson's touches. Jackson has relied on the homerun ball to keep pace with the rest of WR1s and it isn't happening often enough. I don't think Jackson has the footwork to dominate the way the rest of his abilities suggest he should. He is not quick/fast enough in tight spaces to be a threat for the PPR points title.
Tier 6
15. Stevie Johnson:
I believe in Stevie's talent and his ability to continue producing. At 25 years old, it is easy to rank Stevie here, as he has plenty of time to amass VBD points and provide VORP. There is concern surrounding the amount Stevie benefits from his situation (system, #1 on his team), but there is room for error with 25 year old WRs.
RB - 10/24
Tier 1
1. LeSean McCoy:
He is an elite talent, on his way to his 2nd top 5 finish, and he is 23 years old. That combination of youth, production, talent, and track record set McCoy at the top of the rankings and on a tier of his own. Top 5 RB seasons are the best indicator of fantasy success – McCoy projects an additional season, if not more, than the other backs in the top 5.
Tier 2
2. Arian Foster:
Foster currently offers the most potential for points on a per game basis. He is a threat on all 3 downs, at the goal line, and out of the backfield. I believe his talent transfers to any system, while he no doubt benefits from his current situation.
3. Darren McFadden:
If not for Adrian Peterson, I would feel comfortable calling McFadden the most talented RB in the NFL. Very few NFL teams rely on one player, outside of the QB position, as much as the Raiders do McFadden. The offense has been altered to fit his talents, and the Raiders will continue to build around him. Injury concerns keep McFadden out of the first tier, where 24 year olds as talented as McFadden usually belong.
4. Ray Rice:
He offers a sense of consistency that even some ahead of him do not. His balance, vision and lower-body strength make me feel comfortable projecting 3-4 more seasons of success. His reception totals, as an elite receiving threat, should keep him in tier 2, even if those around him offer more big play ability on the ground.
Tier 3
5. Adrian Peterson:
The most talented RB in the NFL and the only threat his team has to move the football. He is the definition of a workhorse RB, much in the mold of past greats. He is consistent, productive, and has long been the biggest asset in fantasy football. However, those days have come and gone, much like his early 20s. He simply can’t offer the value over replacement in 2-3 years that others, like McCoy, can in 3-5.
6. Matt Forte:
It is funny how much more talented a player can look when they have room to operate. He is one of the best and most important offensive players in the NFL. He looks great, which is important for a guy that seemed to lack elite burst. He is well rounded and offers a unique skill set, making him a workhorse back, that is also the biggest receiving threat on his team.
7. Ryan Matthews:
I am not sold yet, at least when it comes to Matthews’ talent being that of a top 10 RB. That said, the starting RB spot in San Diego is a golden opportunity. Matthews is well rounded, has burst, and shows patience and vision. There are enough points to go around in the Charger backfield to prevent Tolbert from threatening Matthews’ value. Situation and youth go a long way, as Ryan’s ranking shows.
8. Chris Johnson:
Like most, I expect Johnson to bounce back. That might require personnel changes by the Titans and perhaps a year’s wait. At 26 years old, the value that Johnson surrenders over that period is big, and places him at the end of tier 3. Odd for a player who ran for 2,000 yards, just two years ago.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew:
There are so many great things to say about MJD as a player. The consistency he has displayed in such a horrible situation is really impressive. MJD, like Peterson, reminds me former greats. He takes contact and finishes runs as well as anyone. Much like Rice, I feel comfortable holding onto MJD, as his vision, balance, instincts, and lower-body strength should keep him relevant towards the end of his prime.
Tier 4
10. Beanie Wells:
Wells is a talented brute who is built to look the part. He is big, strong, fast, and runs mean. At 23 years old, Wells offers potential that many ranked in this range can’t. That said, his injury history raises major red flags. Wells is a very big boom or bust fantasy asset – the biggest to this point.
11. Ahmad Bradshaw:
Bradshaw is an underrated talent who plays with heart. He is dangerous all over the field and displays soft hands. The Giants running game is underrated and the starting role would be much more valuable should Jacobs move on. Bradshaw has injury concerns, which is odd for a guy who doesn’t miss time due to injury. His leg structure is reason for concern, but I won’t go overboard until it actually starts to hinder Ahmad on game day.
12. Rashard Mendenhall:
Mendenhall was thought to be in a great position, until his offensive line stopped creating holes. You have to assume an organization like the Steelers will fix this problem relatively quickly. There is risk, however, that the Steelers find a talented back mate for Mendenhall, as even Isaac Redman was able to match or best Rashard, per carry. The fact that Mendenhall is not used as a weapon out of the backfield is a major concern. There are also very real questions about Mendenhall’s overall talent level. Still, at just 24 years old, Mendenhall ‘s track record suggests he should have good value down the road.
13. Jamaal Charles:
Charles was one of the most talented players at his position before the injury. One missed year is significant, even at 24 years old, for the RB position. That year allows less talented and less productive players to provide value, while Charles is on the shelf. Charles’ production will need to make up for that over the span of his career, to justify this ranking. There is significant risk and lost value when investing in Charles. But there is potential for great reward, should Jamaal be able to reach 100% for even 2 seasons.
14. Jonathan Stewart:
Stewart is a very talented player who finds himself this far down the rankings due to situation and injury concern. Stewart owners have surrendered a lot of value waiting for Stewart to get a lead role. The bad news is that value will continue to be lost, until or unless Stewart becomes a lead RB for the Panthers. Cam Newton is a major concern for Stewart as well. The ability to play 11 on 11 at the goal line is a luxury that the young, LB-sized QB offers. Panther RB goal line opportunities will be cut in half, at least.
15. Mark Ingram:
Ingram has been a disappointment. He was not handed a lead role and has been used as a specialist, as opposed to an every down back. The Saints have no reason to change this, from a football perspective. Ingram owners might find themselves in the boat that Stewart owners have inhabited for years: waiting… Ingram’s talent figured to translate to the NFL with little risk or delay. That also, has not been the case. Ingram is a strong, balanced, quick runner who should find his way in the NFL. However, there are question marks. How long will his owners have to wait, and will he be worth it? Both are valid, real questions.
TE - 10/17
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Jason Witten
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Aaron Hernandez
5. Rob Gronkowski
6. Vernon Davis
7. Dustin Keller
8. Owen Daniels
9. Greg Olsen
10. Antonio Gates
11. Lance Kendricks
12. Jermaine Gresham
13. Fred Davis
14. Dallas Clark
15. Ed Dickson
Tier 1 - 12/7/2011
1. Cam Newton:
Newton is in a position to the be the most unique fantasy asset during the duration of his career. When we think back to other dynasty sustaining players, like LT, Peyton, Randy, TO - the things they did on the field to produce more fantasy points than their peers, their peers also did. In other words, LT simply did what RBs do more effectively than other RBs. Peyton simply threw for more yards/TDs than other QBs.
Cam offers a freaky potential that no other player in the league can offer: the ability to produce based on a unique skill set that his peers don't and will never posses. He is on pace to throw for well over 4,000 yards, throw more TDs than INTs, rush for 600 yards and 14 TDs. That would be amazing for a veteran, let alone a rookie with no training camp, no WR2, only 1 year of major college football, who started from day 1.
I have watched Cam play a lot, there is no player I would rather watch in the NFL right now. All of the potential he offers amounts to nothing if he doesn't have what it takes to win NFL games for 10+ years. I personally have not doubt that he can. His personality scared some people off during the scouting process. He seemed to have a warped opinion of who he was and what he was capable of doing. If the 1984 NBA draft process was the spectacle that the 2011 NFL draft was, Michael Jordan would have had a lot of those concerns too. That chip that Jordan carried with him, justified or not, that made him believe he was going to be the best ever, I think Cam has as well.
To address the injury concerns briefly, I don't have any. He is smart and rarely takes open field hits. He is as big or bigger than most of the people hitting him and slides/gets out of bounds when he needs to. I would be much more concerned about a pocket QB that held onto the ball for too long. This is not a Michael Vick situation.
Think back to what Cam did at Auburn, what he meant to that team and university - think how special his year was. That is how special his rookie season has been, in my opinion, it's clearly not a fluke. He is a special athlete. As high as his price to acquire is right now, if he is as legit as I think he is, it won't be this low again until his age becomes a concern.
2. Aaron Rodgers:
Like Calvin Johnson, there is not much to say about Rodgers. I will explain my ranking of Rodgers below Cam, however. Rodgers doesn't have the upside that Cam does, as crazy as that sounds. The Green Bay Packers will likely, at one point during Aaron's career, need to rely more on the run game. The elite QB seasons, like Rodgers is having, often come back down to earth. See Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as examples. Both of them had ridiculous seasons and both came back down to earth, while remaining elite. Rodgers has produced more VBD this season, half way through, than he did all of last year. Rodgers can stay the best QB in the NFL and still not do what he is doing this season - a lot of things are going right, in other words. Back to Cam, Cam has the potential to be Rodgers, if Rodgers was the goal line back for his team. Tier 2. (Big drop here)
3. Matthew Stafford:
Stafford is not the QB that those ranked right below him are, yet. He may never be. But his age, physical skill, team situation, and general potential place him here in my rankings. He has 10+ years to amass the VBD that guys like Brady and Bress will over the duration of their careers. It is a pretty safe bet, actually. This ranking is the perfect example of "Vacuum" rankings. To a lot of owners, Brees and Brady are much more valuable than Stafford. To others, whose teams are rebuilding, Stafford has much more value than older, more proven options.
4. Drew Brees:
Consistent. Productive. MVP-caliber. Super Bowl Winning. VBD producing. 32 years old.
5. Tom Brady:
Consistent. Productive. MVP. Multiple Super Bowl rings. VBD producing. 34 years old.
6. Michael Vick:
The injury concerns have not been quite as bad, but that has hurt his fantasy production. He is not getting the red zone carries he once was, and has yet to run one in. While that running TDs will come - how many? LeSean McCoy is starting to cut into Vick's value, the way Vick did to so many RBs. And after Vick's play suffered due to injury last season, Philly can't be happier about that.
Tier 3.
7. Ben Roethlisberger:
While his numbers have been up, a lot, and while he has an elite target in Wallace, I can't help but think the Steelers are going to fix the run game and rely on it, along with it's defense (which also needs fixing). Ben finds himself here because his ceiling is not as high as those above him, but his age keeps him in the conversation.
8. Philip Rivers:
This season is in direct contrast with last: the running game is carrying it's weight, and Rivers has been a bit of a hindrance to the team. He is not playing well and has been throwing more INTs than TDs. But yesterday showed what he can do for his fantasy owners, when his teams needs to score in a hurry. His value is somewhere in-between what he has shown this year and last. Like Ben, his age keeps him here, while his current production suggests he could be lower.
9. Tony Romo:
His 36 TD season seems like a long time ago. Romo has the ability to produce points and the weapons around him to get it done. His offensive line has been a big issue and will need to be fixed before Romo threatens to lead the league in TD passes again. Along with his line, I don't think Jason Garrett is helping Romo owners much either. The offense routinely moves the ball down the field without getting into the end zone. The offense is not balanced and seems far too sporadic for my tastes. Along with this, they have not been attacking down the field. Still, I think Romo has a few 30 TD seasons left, if the offensive line and Jason Garrett will allow it.
Tier 4:
10. Matt Ryan:
To think this guy was being drafted as a top 5 dynasty QB at one point. He is not the player his rookie campaign suggested he would be. But, he should be above baseline, if only barely, for 10 years. While that might not win leagues, it does provide value and consistency. There is potential for Ryan to improve and you have to love what Julio Jones offers as a weapon.
11. Josh Freeman:
See Matt Ryan. Replace "rookie campaign" with "sophomore campaign" and remove Julio and Roddy White from the equation. 2010 was a perfect storm for Freeman and his owners and I don't know how often I see that happening in the future. But he is a starting QB who has shown promise and is only 23 years old. The team has room for improvement around Freeman as well - better weapons will go a long way.
12: Sam Bradford:
There is a theme for this tier: Young players that have shown promise but are currently struggling. Many - like they did with Ryan, Freeman, and Flacco - anointed Bradford prematurely. He is talented and I expect him to have a solid career.
Tier 5:
13. Tim Tebow:
When Tebow has been on the field, he is the highest scoring QB in those games. He just looks awful. I want him to do well, am very aware of his potential, but he isn't cutting it as an NFL QB. His mechanics seem impossible to correct and he is damningly inaccurate. If I thought there was a 50% for Tebow to pan out, I would rank him near Romo and Big Ben. I put those odds around 20%, so here he is.
14. Eli Manning:
I feel like I am disrespecting him, by putting him here. I think those ranked ahead of him are likely to amount to a QB of his caliber, if they are lucky. Manning doesn't get the respect that he deserves and has consistently produced VBD. That said, those ahead of him offer more potential. After the top 6-7, potential is what you look for at the QB position, as very few offer meaningful VBD - there is little separation.
15. Andy Dalton:
2nd round QBs don't pan out and Dalton was a game manager at TCU...or so I thought. Dalton has looked good, the Bengals are winning, he has a great target in Green, but I feel like I have seen this before. If Dalton was a first round draft pick from a big school, people would be ranking him as they did Ryan and Bradford during their rookie seasons - he is winning and performing as they did. Dalton, for whatever reason, seems to offer a lower ceiling and I can't put my finger on why. He is a guy I will need to watch more of to get a feel on. Because I don't think many dynasty owners do have a feel on him, he is the kind of guy that doing your homework on could payoff majorly. He can be had cheaper than guys like Ryan, Flacco and Bradford could when they were doing what Dalton is.
WR - 10/26/2011
Tier 1
1. Calvin Johnson:
I won't waste your time. He is the safest investment in fantasy football and the most uniquely talented.
Tier 2
2.Mike Wallace:
He is a shining example of what speed can do in the NFL. He is quickly evolving into a complete wide receiver and his receptions are increasing, while he continues to hit homeruns.
3. Dez Bryant:
Bryant is one of the most talented WRs in the NFL, and one of the youngest WR1s. He is aggressive in running his routes, fighting for the ball in the air, and especially with the ball in his hands. It is easy to project big things out of Bryant, who has the tools to reach the first tier. His age greatly helps to offset injury and personal concerns. There is room for error, in other words.
4. Hakeem Nicks:
I rank Nicks here because his combination of youth, production, situation and talent suggests that I do so. I will say that I have concerns. The Giants, with Eli, produce numbers for whomever lines up as the #1 target (Plax, Smith, Manningham, Cruz...). I can see a number of wide receivers matching Nicks' numbers, given his situation. That said, what reason is there to think Nicks won't be the number 1 in NYG for some time? Ranking Nicks is much like ranking Reggie Wayne in the past - both would be great players outside of their situations, but would potentially lose value.
Tier 3
5. Larry Fitzgerald:
Like Adrian Peterson, Larry is potentially the most talented player at his position, stuck in a bad situation, losing ground to younger options with more time to amass VBD. I don't want to pretend that 28 is old for a WR with Larry's skill set - it's not. But, there are younger options currently matching Larry's production, who are projected to have 3-5 years to of extra value. Because Larry is 28, and has 2 years on Welker, he is in his own tier. This ranking is based off of my assumption that the Cardinals fix their QB situation by the start of the 2013 season, giving Larry a couple seasons of top 3 VBD.
Tier 4
6. Wes Welker:
I want to preface this statement by saying that I don't know if I have the balls to apply this ranking to my leagues. While I stand by the ranking, and acknowledge that if Welker can continue this for 3-4 years, he will be worth it, there is a lot of risk involved. One 3-4 week injury is damaging, as this ranking relies on a very high VBD, per game. But:
Wes Welker will help you more, if not much more, than any WR over the next 3 years. The VBD he is currently producing, would take twice as long for even low level WR1s. Meaning, Welker will do in 3, what it takes even good WRs to do in 6+.
7. A.J. Green:
10 years is a lot of time to score points. If you believe Green is going to be a top 5-10 WR in this league, you should value him here, as he is then very likely to score enough VBD to warrant this ranking. There is room for error, and time for the Bengals to figure things out. It doesn't hurt that Green is currently producing VORP, while offering massive potential in the future. Note that I have removed "bust" from the list of concerns. If you are not sold, his ranking would be much lower.
8. Julio Jones:
See A.J. Green.
Tier 5
9. Greg Jennings:
His age and current production make this a pretty easy ranking. He is producing as a solid WR1, is younger than the likes of Andre/Roddy, and older than Green and Jones. He is removing concerns with consistency, as Green Bay is passing enough to keep everybody fed. My biggest concern with Jennings, is the potential that the Packers find a reason to lean on the run more. I worry about where the targets will go, when there aren't as many to go around.
10. Andre Johnson:
Much like Welker, Andre is projected to score enough VBD during the next 3-4 years to match a 6-7 year run by those ranked just behind him. One of the most talented players at the position, who simply doesn't have the time left to hold his former tier 1 placement. I don't think he will score quite as much as Welker and I worry about him continually missing games here and there. I think the two justify the tier difference between the two 30 year olds.
11: Dwayne Bowe:
He is proving that last year was not a fluke and is putting up WR1 numbers in a horrible situation. I do think there is concern that, like Roddy last year, Bowe is benefiting the lack of quality targets in the KC offense. There is potential for KC to find pieces to take targets from Bowe, without finding a QB, like Brees and Rodgers, who can keep multiple options fed. Roddy White is a clear example of this happening.
12. Miles Austin:
I believe Austin to be one of the most talented WRs in the NFL. His combination of size, strength, and speed is very underrated. While starting, healthy, and playing with a healthy Romo, Ausitn has been the most productive WR over that span. The concern is that there hasn't been a healthy Dez Bryant for much of that. The Cowboys are starting to use Bryant as the #1 WR and that is, and could continue to, cut into Austin's production. Austin will no doubt lose red zone targets, as Bryant is one of the best in the league and more equipped to convert than Austin is. There is reason to think there could be enough targets to go around in the offense to keep both Austin and Bryant fed. But there is concern that Dez will be fed first.
13. Roddy White:
This is almost unthinkable, considering where White would have been ranked a year ago. I think we can determine, that while Roddy is one of the most talented WRs in the league, his monster season was due in large part to the number of targets he received. He is currently struggling to produce WR1 points on a weekly basis. That is not a good sign for a 29 year old WR. His margin for error is very small and his owners can't hope to keep even this value, should Roddy not rebound very strong in 2012.
14. Vincent Jackson:
The Chargers are relying more on the run, and it has destroyed the visions that many had of Rivers throwing the ball 30+ times a game, many to the talented Vincent Jackson. Gates is back and he has traditionally eaten in to Jackson's touches. Jackson has relied on the homerun ball to keep pace with the rest of WR1s and it isn't happening often enough. I don't think Jackson has the footwork to dominate the way the rest of his abilities suggest he should. He is not quick/fast enough in tight spaces to be a threat for the PPR points title.
Tier 6
15. Stevie Johnson:
I believe in Stevie's talent and his ability to continue producing. At 25 years old, it is easy to rank Stevie here, as he has plenty of time to amass VBD points and provide VORP. There is concern surrounding the amount Stevie benefits from his situation (system, #1 on his team), but there is room for error with 25 year old WRs.
RB - 10/24
Tier 1
1. LeSean McCoy:
He is an elite talent, on his way to his 2nd top 5 finish, and he is 23 years old. That combination of youth, production, talent, and track record set McCoy at the top of the rankings and on a tier of his own. Top 5 RB seasons are the best indicator of fantasy success – McCoy projects an additional season, if not more, than the other backs in the top 5.
Tier 2
2. Arian Foster:
Foster currently offers the most potential for points on a per game basis. He is a threat on all 3 downs, at the goal line, and out of the backfield. I believe his talent transfers to any system, while he no doubt benefits from his current situation.
3. Darren McFadden:
If not for Adrian Peterson, I would feel comfortable calling McFadden the most talented RB in the NFL. Very few NFL teams rely on one player, outside of the QB position, as much as the Raiders do McFadden. The offense has been altered to fit his talents, and the Raiders will continue to build around him. Injury concerns keep McFadden out of the first tier, where 24 year olds as talented as McFadden usually belong.
4. Ray Rice:
He offers a sense of consistency that even some ahead of him do not. His balance, vision and lower-body strength make me feel comfortable projecting 3-4 more seasons of success. His reception totals, as an elite receiving threat, should keep him in tier 2, even if those around him offer more big play ability on the ground.
Tier 3
5. Adrian Peterson:
The most talented RB in the NFL and the only threat his team has to move the football. He is the definition of a workhorse RB, much in the mold of past greats. He is consistent, productive, and has long been the biggest asset in fantasy football. However, those days have come and gone, much like his early 20s. He simply can’t offer the value over replacement in 2-3 years that others, like McCoy, can in 3-5.
6. Matt Forte:
It is funny how much more talented a player can look when they have room to operate. He is one of the best and most important offensive players in the NFL. He looks great, which is important for a guy that seemed to lack elite burst. He is well rounded and offers a unique skill set, making him a workhorse back, that is also the biggest receiving threat on his team.
7. Ryan Matthews:
I am not sold yet, at least when it comes to Matthews’ talent being that of a top 10 RB. That said, the starting RB spot in San Diego is a golden opportunity. Matthews is well rounded, has burst, and shows patience and vision. There are enough points to go around in the Charger backfield to prevent Tolbert from threatening Matthews’ value. Situation and youth go a long way, as Ryan’s ranking shows.
8. Chris Johnson:
Like most, I expect Johnson to bounce back. That might require personnel changes by the Titans and perhaps a year’s wait. At 26 years old, the value that Johnson surrenders over that period is big, and places him at the end of tier 3. Odd for a player who ran for 2,000 yards, just two years ago.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew:
There are so many great things to say about MJD as a player. The consistency he has displayed in such a horrible situation is really impressive. MJD, like Peterson, reminds me former greats. He takes contact and finishes runs as well as anyone. Much like Rice, I feel comfortable holding onto MJD, as his vision, balance, instincts, and lower-body strength should keep him relevant towards the end of his prime.
Tier 4
10. Beanie Wells:
Wells is a talented brute who is built to look the part. He is big, strong, fast, and runs mean. At 23 years old, Wells offers potential that many ranked in this range can’t. That said, his injury history raises major red flags. Wells is a very big boom or bust fantasy asset – the biggest to this point.
11. Ahmad Bradshaw:
Bradshaw is an underrated talent who plays with heart. He is dangerous all over the field and displays soft hands. The Giants running game is underrated and the starting role would be much more valuable should Jacobs move on. Bradshaw has injury concerns, which is odd for a guy who doesn’t miss time due to injury. His leg structure is reason for concern, but I won’t go overboard until it actually starts to hinder Ahmad on game day.
12. Rashard Mendenhall:
Mendenhall was thought to be in a great position, until his offensive line stopped creating holes. You have to assume an organization like the Steelers will fix this problem relatively quickly. There is risk, however, that the Steelers find a talented back mate for Mendenhall, as even Isaac Redman was able to match or best Rashard, per carry. The fact that Mendenhall is not used as a weapon out of the backfield is a major concern. There are also very real questions about Mendenhall’s overall talent level. Still, at just 24 years old, Mendenhall ‘s track record suggests he should have good value down the road.
13. Jamaal Charles:
Charles was one of the most talented players at his position before the injury. One missed year is significant, even at 24 years old, for the RB position. That year allows less talented and less productive players to provide value, while Charles is on the shelf. Charles’ production will need to make up for that over the span of his career, to justify this ranking. There is significant risk and lost value when investing in Charles. But there is potential for great reward, should Jamaal be able to reach 100% for even 2 seasons.
14. Jonathan Stewart:
Stewart is a very talented player who finds himself this far down the rankings due to situation and injury concern. Stewart owners have surrendered a lot of value waiting for Stewart to get a lead role. The bad news is that value will continue to be lost, until or unless Stewart becomes a lead RB for the Panthers. Cam Newton is a major concern for Stewart as well. The ability to play 11 on 11 at the goal line is a luxury that the young, LB-sized QB offers. Panther RB goal line opportunities will be cut in half, at least.
15. Mark Ingram:
Ingram has been a disappointment. He was not handed a lead role and has been used as a specialist, as opposed to an every down back. The Saints have no reason to change this, from a football perspective. Ingram owners might find themselves in the boat that Stewart owners have inhabited for years: waiting… Ingram’s talent figured to translate to the NFL with little risk or delay. That also, has not been the case. Ingram is a strong, balanced, quick runner who should find his way in the NFL. However, there are question marks. How long will his owners have to wait, and will he be worth it? Both are valid, real questions.
TE - 10/17
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Jason Witten
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Aaron Hernandez
5. Rob Gronkowski
6. Vernon Davis
7. Dustin Keller
8. Owen Daniels
9. Greg Olsen
10. Antonio Gates
11. Lance Kendricks
12. Jermaine Gresham
13. Fred Davis
14. Dallas Clark
15. Ed Dickson
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How is the league leader in receiving yards (#89 Steve Smith) not on the list? 
Oversight
