TheFootballJesus
Footballguy
It seems like the upper echelon TEs are generally taken in the 4th round- where would you take a guy like Gronkowski in your fantasy draft next year?
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When would you draft Rob Gronkowski Next Year? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheFootballJesus
- Start date
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
There is some very good discussion here:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=626491&st=0
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=626491&st=0
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
The only concern is that defenses will overplay him so much next year that the Patriots will just start going elsewhere and someone we aren't even thinking about now will become a star.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Anyone who contemplates drafting him early in the first round next year is welcome to just send me their league fees to save themselves the time and energy. I promise to use part of the money to purchase and mail to you a book that explains regression to the mean.
If you want a preview, here's a list of guys with the most TDs in a single season. Pick a few at random and let me know how many of them came close to duplicating the feat the next season. My guess is that it will be a small percentage, and that a larger percentage will see an 8-10 TD drop.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
So what's the alternative? Ignoring past production when ranking players or just avoiding anyone coming off of a great season?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The alternative is to draft with the assumption that he'll regress to the mean somewhat while still being an elite talent and player. If he ultimately goes for 1,250 and 17 TD this year, maybe assume 1,000-1,1100 and 9-11 next year. That's what I'd guess will happen. Still a really awesome TE, but it's up to you to decide if that's worth a first round pick.
doublavae02
Footballguy
wouldnt defenses be "overplaying" him after 14 weeks??
TheFootballJesus
Footballguy
Who wouldn't be satisfied with those numbers out of a late first round pick....
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I wouldn't touch him before the 3rd.
Hernandez will be value next year.
Hernandez will be value next year.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
He's outscoring WRs in every format.
And what if he doesn't regress? I was being facetious but he is definitely a 1st round lock (so is Graham) in certain leagues that favor TE production.In one league I'm in, he is the top scorer of all non-QB players and not far behind guys like Rodgers, Brees and Brady.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Sure, I guess. But I don't think he's a no brainer "you'd pick at -1 if you could" guy like some people here are saying.I also think there's a greater risk with him than with most first round types. I could see him dropping to 6-7 TDs very easily. Barring injury, I can't see a dropoff anywhere near that happening with anyone else likely to get first round consideration unless something very unusual- far more unusual than Gronkowski only getting 6-7 TDs- happens.
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Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
In 10 teams leagues or more he will not be there in the third. If you want Gronk next year you will have to take him early.I got him the 9th this year and really was not that enthused thinking that the Pats use a two TE attack..I am enthused now.
TheFootballJesus
Footballguy
Normally I'd agree, but it's not like he's getting fluky long TDs, Brady seems to target him WHENEVER he's in the red zone. 22 red zone targets this year and double digit TDs in his rookie year....If anything, I'd be more worried about the receiving yards regressing....
RUSF18
Footballguy
Mentioned it in another thread...his consistency is something that's almost as impressive as his sheer numbers. How many clunkers has he had compared to other TEs? To other WR1s?
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
That's a very good and not often stated point. Finding first round value is a very tricky proposition. Most picks at the very top will see some level of regression. Its just a matter of how much regression are you willing to accept and still consider the pick a worthwhile one.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I assume the same thing was true of Jerry Rice when he had 23 TDs in 1987. The next year he scored 9. Moss caught almost 100 passes when he had 23 TDs in 2007. The next year he had 11, and the year after that with Brady back he had 13. Some other receivers with 15 or more TDs in a season who played a full season the next year: Mark Clayton went from 18 to 4. Carl Pickens went from 17 to 12 (then to 5). Cris Carter from 17 to 10. Moss went from 17 to 13 and 17 to 11 after next two best years (aside- How amazing was Randy Moss? Underrated). How about the TEs? Gates went from 13 to 10, so that's somewhat encouraging as far as kinda keeping up. So is Gonzalez, who went 11 then 9, 10 then 7, and 10 then 6. Shannon Sharpe went 10-3-10-0 in consecutive seasons. Vernon Davis went 13 then 7.You can roll the dice that Gronkowski is some sort of all-timer who will buck the trends of every other player in history, some of whom are all-timers themselves. It's possible. Me, I'll pass.
pantherclub
Footballguy
There is a simple rule of fantasy football that all must adhere to. Never draft the guy coming off a record setting year. You are due for a letdown
Well, its more like, "Never draft the guy coming off a record setting year, and expect him to break the record next year."Of course, if Madden 13 comes out with Gronk on the cover - all bets are off. Already discounting Rodgers for next season in dynasty leagues.
TheFootballJesus
Footballguy
I'm not saying that some level of regression shouldn't be expected.But again, the guy scored 10 touchdowns in his rookie year when he had to fight alge crumplar for playing time almost the entire year.You brought up guys like Randy Moss, Gates, Gonzalez and your stats show they had some level of consistency in receiving touchdowns from year to year. What's the common factor? They're all red zone monsters- just like Gronkowski. I'm not expecting 16-18 TDs next year, but I think 10-12 TDs is an extremely reasonable expectation.
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Hurl Bruce
Footballguy
Have him in two keeper leagues. I'll be getting him for a 3rd in one league and a 7th in another.
barista
Footballguy
Can you make the case that he has another hall-of-fame caliber season? I can't.
He's a #1 TE pick and depending on tiers and starting rosters I could see him going in the late second. That said, I wouldn't pass up on an every-down RB or Calvin/Andre Johnson or Rogers/Brees/Brady for that matter... Again, it's about when your league runs on positions... I could see him lasting until late 3 or 4. Personally would draft the back-end of the TE herd.
He's a #1 TE pick and depending on tiers and starting rosters I could see him going in the late second. That said, I wouldn't pass up on an every-down RB or Calvin/Andre Johnson or Rogers/Brees/Brady for that matter... Again, it's about when your league runs on positions... I could see him lasting until late 3 or 4. Personally would draft the back-end of the TE herd.
cr8f
Footballguy
One league I'm in gives 1.5 PPR for RB's and 2 PPR for TE's but I still wouldn't draft him before the very late 2nd or early 3rd.
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 351.54
Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 318.18
Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 277.20
Witten, Jason DAL TE 241.20
Davis, Fred WAS TE 235
I'd rather go for Fred Davis at 18 PPG if he played vs 27 for Gronk. 9 PPG isn't worth losing a good WR or RB in the 2nd.
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 351.54
Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 318.18
Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 277.20
Witten, Jason DAL TE 241.20
Davis, Fred WAS TE 235
I'd rather go for Fred Davis at 18 PPG if he played vs 27 for Gronk. 9 PPG isn't worth losing a good WR or RB in the 2nd.
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Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
third rd.
flapgreen
Footballguy
I'll take a letdown from that guy over trying to figure out which tight end will have a great season.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
FWIW, Sigmund Bloom says that Gronk should be a lock for a top 5 pick. I disagree based on Tobias's logic.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
VBD for all players thru 13 weeks (but not the MNF game)
1 pt for 20 yards, 5 pt for TD, -2 for INT
1 pt for 10 yards rush/rec; 6 pt for TDs; 0.5 PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE - 12 team league
1 pt for 20 yards, 5 pt for TD, -2 for INT
1 pt for 10 yards rush/rec; 6 pt for TDs; 0.5 PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE - 12 team league
Code:
Player Team Pos FP VBD PosRk VBDrk Aaron Rodgers GNB QB 422 188 1 1LeSean McCoy PHI RB 273 156 1 2Ray Rice BAL RB 270 154 2 3Drew Brees NOR QB 369 136 2 4Rob Gronkowski NWE TE 241 133 1 5Tom Brady NWE QB 366 132 3 6Cam Newton CAR QB 358 125 4 7Wes Welker NWE WR 240 122 1 8Maurice Jones-Drew JAX RB 235 118 3 9Arian Foster HOU RB 233 116 4 10Calvin Johnson DET WR 221 103 2 11Jimmy Graham NOR TE 198 90 2 12Matt Forte CHI RB 199 82 5 13Eli Manning NYG QB 312 79 5 14Matthew Stafford DET QB 312 78 6 15Fred Jackson BUF RB 193 77 6 16Victor Cruz NYG WR 193 74 3 17Steve Smith CAR WR 188 70 4 18Mike Wallace PIT WR 188 70 5 19Ryan Mathews SDG RB 183 67 7 20Tony Romo DAL QB 299 65 7 21Greg Jennings GNB WR 182 64 6 22Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 182 64 7 23Adrian Peterson MIN RB 180 63 8 24Jordy Nelson GNB WR 181 63 8 25Darren Sproles NOR RB 177 61 9 26Percy Harvin MIN WR 178 59 9 27Michael Turner ATL RB 173 57 10 28Michael Bush OAK RB 169 53 11 29Tony Gonzalez ATL TE 160 52 3 30Matt Ryan ATL QB 285 52 8 31Roddy White ATL WR 170 52 10 32Vincent Jackson SDG WR 170 51 11 33Hakeem Nicks NYG WR 169 51 12 34Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 166 50 12 35Chris Johnson TEN RB 166 49 13 36Frank Gore SFO RB 160 43 14 37Reggie Bush MIA RB 159 43 15 38A.J. Green CIN WR 161 43 13 39Philip Rivers SDG QB 273 40 9 40Chris Wells ARI RB 156 39 16 41Shonn Greene NYJ RB 155 39 17 42Pierre Garcon IND WR 153 35 14 43Dwayne Bowe KAN WR 151 33 15 44Brandon Marshall MIA WR 151 33 16 45Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 266 33 10 46Jason Witten DAL TE 139 31 4 47Mark Sanchez NYJ QB 264 31 11 48Mike Tolbert SDG RB 146 30 18 49Dez Bryant DAL WR 148 29 17 50
glumpy
breeze
In his heyday I used to target Gates in the 3rd. Generally found myself alone on the point, none others drafted before at least 4th and most ofter 5th or later. This year I targeted Gronk, and got him at TE#4 in the 6th (ten team league makes a difference). There was enough debate preseason over which was the better TE to have in that team that he would last that long. I think that what makes him sooooo valuable is the fact that he could be drafted that late. 1st-2nd round and the value isn't there. I'll target him 3rd, I think, despite the fact that he's carried my team more than once this year. I still value my start of Rice-DMC-Romo-Dez and the fact that a TE has become integral is a bonus--not a target.
FWIW--Jimmy Graham was picked TE #8 in the 7th round--and until the last two weeks was neck and neck with Gronk.
Most league I'm in are 1.5 PPR for TE leagues and in those leagues I have no issue committing two high picks to get them both. I'd even take it a step further and try and get Brady and than just proceed to wallop people most weeks. I think so long as both these guys are healthy and have Brady throwing to them they are mortal locks for 20 combined TD's. I'd especially enjoy putting this trio together in VP format leagues that reward high score weeks and tend to minimize the damage from low scoring weeks.As much as I've enjoyed Gronk this season and believe him to already be the best all around TE in the NFL I do agree with you in the aspect that I think Hernandez is the better value play if you can obtain him several rounds later.Things started off fairly even for Hernandez and Gronk until Hernandez suffered the knee injury. I also don't think Hernandez was close to 100% when he returned so his stats are not going to properly reflect what he's capable of producing.
flc735
Footballguy
9 ppg is a ####-ton, 117 points over a 13 game season to be exact. same as rodgers vs rya, rice vs m bush and welker vs bowe. in this or a 1.5 TEppr league, i wouldn't hesitate to take him with the 1st overall pick. in a normal league, i would take him in the early 2nd, maybe as high as the 1.10 if it were a TE flex league
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
I love all the Psy/Ops going on here down playing Gronk's future look, keep it up drive his price down.
I am looking to trade for him in a dynasty, and while I don't have an idea what that will take to get him, I am really willing to go very high to get him.
I am looking to trade for him in a dynasty, and while I don't have an idea what that will take to get him, I am really willing to go very high to get him.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Enjoy losing. Again. 2 PPR TE, Gronk is unquestionably a Top 5 pick. Not shocking if he went #1 in this format.Good luck dealing with the Davis year long ban next year and with whatever rookie QB Washington grabs.And
at a "mere" 9 PPG difference. Take another hit of what Davis is smoking.
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glumpy
breeze
Matter of choice.
That's the reason I could afford to go with Rice-DMC-Romo-Dez was for a big run off the norm like that. Remains to be seen if that was best or not...second round playoffs next week.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Gronk has now scored 26 TD in 29 career games and 11 fantasy ppg. What do you suggest we use as a baseline for him scoring wise given that his TD rate is basically 14 TD in 16 games?He's scored more TD in his first two seasons than any other TE. And he ranks 3rd when you consider WRs (Bill Groman with 30, Randy Moss 28). So Gronk needs 4 more TD to tie the record for most TDs scored by WRs in first two years played.
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Lavachebeadsman
Footballguy
I'll be taking him in the first round of my 1.5 ppr for TE 16 team league, FWIW
Banger
Footballguy
Exactly, he's a 2nd year guy who's HUGE, fast, smart, Alstott-esque and plays in the perfect offense for the perfect QB. As long as Brady is QB and he's healthy 10 TDs is an absolute floor. The scary thing is he seems to be getting better. He's taking NO ONE by surprise now and yet he's throwing up sick games. If you watch the game yesterday he could have easily had 4 tds had Brady been in more of a groove. It's unreal.
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SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Might consider him if he's available in the 5th or 6th round.
Banger
Footballguy
ya you won't have to worry about that
cr8f
Footballguy
That's when I got Graham this year but that's over too. You could guess and get an undervalued TE there or later. Tony G is old but still productive, Fred Davis maybe? Keller?This is top 20 RB/TE in my 2 PPR league. I'll take Ray Rice and Keller or Davis or someone undervalued later.Yes he scored well compared to RB's but 1st is too high.1. 5. Rice, Ray BAL RB 352.64 27.126 34.80 24.40 24.80 24.50 B 25.90 12.60 40.20 23.90 26.64 36.20 14.90 33.30 30.50 The Pron Stars - Trade 5 $2 22. 6. Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 351.54 27.042 27.04 28.60 38.90 3.50 11.10 21.40 B 23.40 34.10 39.30 29.60 19.90 34.70 40.00 Youre Going Down - Trade 7 $5 53. 7. McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 345.90 26.608 30.20 31.40 27.00 21.10 23.80 25.70 B 38.00 26.80 23.20 20.30 19.10 33.00 26.30 Running Aces - Trade 7 $4 44. 9. Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 318.18 24.475 19.60 19.90 24.00 39.20 28.90 26.40 29.40 11.90 19.80 28.20 B 30.48 24.90 15.50 godtomsatan - Trade 11 $5 55. 12. Sproles, Darren NOS RB 306.78 23.598 31.62 25.40 28.02 23.58 17.58 20.66 36.22 22.80 28.56 10.58 B 14.48 24.78 22.50 Diggin - Trade 11 $1 16. 13. Foster, Arian HOU RB 301.40 27.400 8.00 30.10 28.10 20.60 51.40 25.20 32.40 38.30 B 25.60 28.80 12.90 Badgers 11 $2 27. 14. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 297.20 22.862 18.10 17.00 23.60 11.30 16.40 15.60 16.40 16.70 B 26.70 25.90 24.40 35.80 49.30 M & M - Trade (P) 9 $1 18. 18. Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE 277.20 21.323 19.20 36.30 11.80 25.60 20.00 8.90 18.20 B 17.60 25.10 23.40 24.90 24.00 22.20 godtomsatan - Trade (P) 8 $2 29. 20. Forte, Matt CHI RB 273.00 22.750 30.90 32.60 19.60 37.30 23.30 23.00 29.80 B 19.90 16.00 18.30 20.60 1.70 Running Aces - Trade (O) 8 $2 210. 24. Jackson, Fred BUF RB 249.10 24.910 15.20 30.50 30.80 25.00 37.20 31.90 B 26.50 18.30 16.80 16.90 godtomsatan - Trade (I) 7 $1 111. 25. Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 246.30 20.525 17.50 30.30 37.00 24.00 17.10 B 13.80 21.50 10.80 7.40 17.90 23.20 25.80 WWWarriors - Trade 6 $4 412. 26. Witten, Jason DAL TE 241.20 18.554 23.00 24.20 20.00 33.40 B 18.80 19.50 10.80 21.10 13.70 20.50 14.30 14.70 7.20 Hand of Bone - Trade 5 $2 213. 31. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 230.20 17.708 14.80 13.40 14.80 16.50 18.40 B 14.50 11.00 18.40 32.10 8.50 21.10 31.50 15.20 Playa Hatas - Trade 6 $2 214. 34. Tolbert, Mike SDC RB 224.90 18.742 44.00 23.20 9.20 22.90 9.90 B 12.90 28.10 15.50 13.60 11.90 20.00 13.70 Diggin - Trade 6 $1 115. 39. Davis, Fred WAS TE 219.60 18.300 20.50 26.60 4.30 11.40 B 23.50 26.00 27.40 14.20 8.80 15.20 19.80 21.90 Badgers (S) 5 $3 316. 41. Bush, Reggie MIA RB 218.38 16.798 30.00 4.20 3.48 10.80 B 12.04 9.80 19.34 26.00 24.50 20.10 15.70 18.20 24.22 Diggin - Trade 5 $2 217. 43. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 216.70 21.670 15.00 33.60 23.40 12.10 33.10 12.60 27.40 37.80 B 12.50 9.20 Clucking Birds - Trade (O) 9 $4 418. 46. Bush, Michael OAK RB 214.90 16.531 3.90 8.70 15.50 20.90 1.30 6.20 15.80 B 23.80 37.70 22.90 25.70 10.00 22.50 godtomsatan - Trade 8 $3 319. 52. Gates, Antonio SDC TE 208.10 20.810 25.40 0.00 B 21.40 17.30 31.60 17.40 20.30 22.90 19.00 32.80 Playa Hatas - Trade 6 $3 320. 53. Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE 207.00 18.818 30.30 26.20 15.60 26.80 B 11.20 17.50 12.10 12.40 18.20 18.30 18.40 Hand of Bone - Trade 7 $5 5
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Banger
Footballguy
Finley.
bbuster
Footballguy
I'm a HUGE Gronk fan. The guy is a monster. However, I think those of you crediting him with "single-handedly" winning your season for you are overlooking where you drafted him. If you are like me, you were fortunate to be able to take him between rounds 7-10. By doing this, you were able to also build a strong team around him. There is a big difference between a guy putting an already strong team over the top, and "winning it himself". When it comes to drafting, I would "never say never", but it's highly unlikely Gronk will be on my team next year. What players are you valuing him over in the first round or two?(if you play in a league that has scoring that values TE's highly, it's a whole different story). I've personally found that when I take an earlier round TE(like Gates in his prime), it makes the rest of the draft more difficult...but if he were there I would take him in the 3rd and just deal with it. 
Banger
Footballguy
he's blown away Gates in his prime. He has better numbers than Gates did in his best season and he has 3 games left.I'm a HUGE Gronk fan. The guy is a monster. However, I think those of you crediting him with "single-handedly" winning your season for you are overlooking where you drafted him. If you are like me, you were fortunate to be able to take him between rounds 7-10. By doing this, you were able to also build a strong team around him. There is a big difference between a guy putting an already strong team over the top, and "winning it himself". When it comes to drafting, I would "never say never", but it's highly unlikely Gronk will be on my team next year. What players are you valuing him over in the first round or two?(if you play in a league that has scoring that values TE's highly, it's a whole different story). I've personally found that when I take an earlier round TE(like Gates in his prime), it makes the rest of the draft more difficult...but if he were there I would take him in the 3rd and just deal with it.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
There will not be 15 TDs or this yardage next year.
Short Corner
Footballguy
What are you using for baseline numbers?
You're right. He may actually meet his TD numbers from this year which will be more than 15. Unless Brady gets hurt, there nothing to indicate that his success won't continue. He's only in his 2nd year. He caught 10 TDs last year.
