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DYNASTY: Top 2013 College Prospects (1 Viewer)

If Kendall Wright can go 1st round, Bailey should as well.
Fair comparison, but this year's WR class is deeper. A lot deeper. Wright got inflated last year because of positional premium, Bailey won't benefit this year. Both are going to be starters in the league though.
Wright got inflated because he played with Griffin. If he played at Wake Forest, he'd be Chris Givens.
 
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Bailey is no Wright. Solid player, but in NFL terms he has no special qualities. He doesn't project as anything more than a #2 WR in the NFL and is not likely to go much higher than the late 2nd-early 3rd round, IMO. He could have some value as a Decker type opposite an elite #1, but he has no star qualities of his own.
Sounds like Wright's profile to me.
Nah. Wright is a lot more explosive. Very athletic base. That's why he went where he did. Bailey won't sniff the first round.
What makes you think that? Wright's combine was pretty bad, he currently currently ranks 62nd of 63 in yards per reception by WRs who have at least 40 receptions, and his yards per reception was mediocre in college as well considering the offense he played in. Small and slow WRs generally don't make for great NFL WRs, so I'll probably be avoiding Bailey just like I avoided Kendall Wright.
 
If Kendall Wright can go 1st round, Bailey should as well.
Fair comparison, but this year's WR class is deeper. A lot deeper. Wright got inflated last year because of positional premium, Bailey won't benefit this year. Both are going to be starters in the league though.
Wright got inflated because he played with Griffin. If he played at Wake Forest, he'd be Chris Givens.
Somewhere in between imho, didn't see much of Givens in school but he's done this year about how he was written up. Big play ability down the field, but under developed everywhere else. Wright had a lot more experience in the short passing game and had displayed skills necessary for intermediate game. On a piece of paper they weren't much different, but on the field from a developmental perspective they were far off. I think Bailey is as developed as Wright and while he may not have the same get-up in and out of his breaks that Wright does he is sound and strong enough to create separation anyway.
 
Bailey is no Wright. Solid player, but in NFL terms he has no special qualities. He doesn't project as anything more than a #2 WR in the NFL and is not likely to go much higher than the late 2nd-early 3rd round, IMO. He could have some value as a Decker type opposite an elite #1, but he has no star qualities of his own.
Sounds like Wright's profile to me.
Nah. Wright is a lot more explosive. Very athletic base. That's why he went where he did. Bailey won't sniff the first round.
What makes you think that? Wright's combine was pretty bad, he currently currently ranks 62nd of 63 in yards per reception by WRs who have at least 40 receptions, and his yards per reception was mediocre in college as well considering the offense he played in. Small and slow WRs generally don't make for great NFL WRs, so I'll probably be avoiding Bailey just like I avoided Kendall Wright.
I've watched him extensively. You guys are selling his skills short. Is he the next Steve Smith? No, but he is a very good athlete and receiver. Quick, fluid, efficient, and much faster than the 40 time would indicate. He isn't slow. He runs by defensive backs with ease. If you go back and watch his college clips, he is WIDE OPEN downfield pretty much constantly. That isn't purely a product of the scheme, the QB, or the poor competition. Wright plays fast and is very hard to cover 1 v 1. He reminds me a lot of Santonio Holmes. I think he can be that type of player in the NFL if he stays motivated and keeps the beer gut under control. Tennessee took him with a top 25 pick and Cleveland admitted that they would've done the same. Bailey will not sniff that draft slot. Why do you think that is? Because NFL teams are stupid? No, because Wright was a justifiable first round talent. Bailey isn't. Statistics aren't going to tell you much about a rookie WR. How many yards did Michael Floyd have? How about Brian Quick? How about Stephen Hill? Alshon Jeffery? Rueben Randle? AJ Jenkins? DeVier Posey? TJ Graham? Rookie receivers aren't finished products, so unless they're either amazingly good or bad, the stats from their debut seasons don't mean much. I would've liked to have seen a higher YPC and more big plays from Wright, but at the end of the day you just can't expect much from a rookie WR. The effective ones are the exception and not the norm. The league is littered with guys like Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, Chad Johnson, Miles Austin, and Cecil Shorts who showed very few signs of stardom in their debut season. There's a learning curve at WR. Not every good player is going to come in and be Julio Jones or AJ Green.
 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.

 
The league is littered with guys like Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Vincent Jackson, Chad Johnson, Miles Austin, and Cecil Shorts who showed very few signs of stardom in their debut season..
Is that a joke throwing Cecil shorts into that group?I like him but let's not get carried away.

 
Bailey may have the best college numbers of any WR in the draft this year. My two favorite college stats to look at are 40+ yard plays and TDs, since they're both signs of a playmaker who is able to beat the defense. Bailey has scored TDs like no one else in this draft class (or anyone in the previous draft except for Justin Blackmon), and he's near the top of this class in 40+ yard plays.

Looking at per game rates over the past 2 seasons, here's the top 6 in each stat:

40+ yard plays (including runs)

19/24 Terrance Williams

18/25 Tavon Austin (including 6 runs)

16/24 Tevin Reese

16/24 Quinton Patton

14/25 Stedman Bailey

11/21 Marquess Wilson

TDs (including running & returning)

35/25 Stedman Bailey

26/23 Robert Woods

27/25 Tavon Austin (including 7 rushing/returning)

24/25 Quinton Patton

23/24 Terrance Williams

17/21 Marquess Wilson

To get a single number, you can do the simple thing and just add to get a top 10 of:

Big plays per game, 2011-2012

1.96 Stedman Bailey

1.80 Tavon Austin (1.28 receiving)

1.75 Terrance Williams

1.60 Quinton Patton

1.39 Robert Woods

1.33 Marquess Wilson

1.29 Tevin Reese

1.20 Martel Moore

1.20 Justin Hunter

1.19 DeAndre Hopkins

Kendall Wright had 1.35 big plays per game over his last 2 years, with 14 40+ yard plays and 21 TDs over 26 games.

Obviously, this needs to be combined with scouting, size, combine performance, etc., but it's enough to make me very intrigued by Bailey (and Patton).

(Note: looking at only 2012 helps Hopkins a lot, hurts Woods & Wilson, and brings Chad Bumphis into the picture.)

 
Not to totally discount all of that, but I think the system plays a big role in the numbers. Tevin Reese isn't a bad player, but he's also not one of the best receivers in college football. Put him on Cal or Oregon and he would be pretty anonymous. Playing for Baylor is the main reason why he has those stats. I'd say the same for Terrance Williams or Kendall Wright. When you've got a QB putting up video game numbers in a spread attack, the receivers are going to benefit. So while the stats are nice, they aren't really the main thing to focus on. The eyeball test is a lot more valuable and I don't think a guy like Bailey really flashes first round skills in that department. A good, draftable prospect. Not a special talent worthy of a top 45 pick though.

Patton is a good player. I was on him early and actually came VERY close to drafting him in a couple of my dev leagues. Ultimately, I'm not convinced that he has the physical tools to be a true #1 at the next level. I see him as more of a Steve Johnson or Nate Burleson, which isn't horrible, but isn't really going to elevate your FF team either.

I see Bumphis as a similar type of player. I have caught more SEC games this year than in any other season and he stood out as a tough, solid possession WR with sneaky athletic ability. A good value in the middle rounds. But again, probably not a future WR1. If you want that top level upside then I think you need to focus on guys who have special qualities. In this draft that would be names like Marquess Wilson (height/ball skills/routes), Marcus Davis (height/strength/speed), Markus Wheaton (speed), and Tavon Austin (quickness/speed). Not to say that those guys are can't-miss prospects, because they aren't, but they at least have individual characteristics that are elite.

 
Speaking of Wheaton, he is probably one of the most underrated skill prospects nationally. Ripped the Pac-12 a new one this year with 1207 yards and 11 TDs in just 12 games. Was the focal point of OSU's offense and figures to shine in the postseason at the Senior Bowl and combine. Has clocked 10.58 in the 100m and famously beat Oregon's DeAnthony Thomas over that distance. If you want to talk about an unheralded receiver who could sneak into round one, he has a much better chance than Bailey. I think he's probably a better prospect than Robert Woods, who is a lot more well-known.

 
Anybody know anything about David Fales, the quarterback from San Jose State? He put up gaudy numbers this year in his first year as a starter, in a San Jose State system that has put up some very poor passing numbers in recent years. His listed size is also very good at 6'3, 220lbs.

 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypc this year looks great for Wright.
 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypcthis year looks great for Wright.
Fixed
So, you change the 9.5 ypc emphasis and put it on the 62 receptions and you think that # is good?
 
WRs who caught at least 60 passes in their first two years in the league who also had less than 11.5ypc:

Code:
Rec	Yds	Avg.   TDsAndre Caldwell	wr	62	510	8.23	3Kendall Wright	wr	62	586	9.45	4Steve Smith (NY)wr	65	637	9.80	1Davone Bess	wr	130	1312	10.09	3Antwaan Randle  wr	84	853	10.15	3Eddie Royal	wr	128	1325	10.35	5Peter Warrick	wr	121	1259	10.40	5Jerome Pathon	wr	64	674	10.53	1Marty Booker	wr	66	709	10.74	5Andrew Hawkins	wr	71	778	10.96	4David Nelson	wr	92	1011	10.99	8Brandon Gibson	wr	87	968	11.13	3Mike Thomas	wr	114	1273	11.17	5Antonio Chatman	wr	71	795	11.20	5Austin Collie	wr	118	1325	11.23	15Dane Looker	wr	60	678	11.30	3
Only one has been worse than Wright, and almost none of them turned out to be good for longer than the odd year or two.
 
WRs who caught at least 60 passes in their first two years in the league who also had less than 11.5ypc:

Code:
Rec	Yds	Avg.   TDsAndre Caldwell	wr	62	510	8.23	3Kendall Wright	wr	62	586	9.45	4Steve Smith (NY)wr	65	637	9.80	1Davone Bess	wr	130	1312	10.09	3Antwaan Randle  wr	84	853	10.15	3Eddie Royal	wr	128	1325	10.35	5Peter Warrick	wr	121	1259	10.40	5Jerome Pathon	wr	64	674	10.53	1Marty Booker	wr	66	709	10.74	5Andrew Hawkins	wr	71	778	10.96	4David Nelson	wr	92	1011	10.99	8Brandon Gibson	wr	87	968	11.13	3Mike Thomas	wr	114	1273	11.17	5Antonio Chatman	wr	71	795	11.20	5Austin Collie	wr	118	1325	11.23	15Dane Looker	wr	60	678	11.30	3
Only one has been worse than Wright, and almost none of them turned out to be good for longer than the odd year or two.
Nice post.
 
WRs who caught at least 60 passes in their first two years in the league who also had less than 11.5ypc:

Code:
Rec	Yds	Avg.   TDsAndre Caldwell	wr	62	510	8.23	3Kendall Wright	wr	62	586	9.45	4Steve Smith (NY)wr	65	637	9.80	1Davone Bess	wr	130	1312	10.09	3Antwaan Randle  wr	84	853	10.15	3Eddie Royal	wr	128	1325	10.35	5Peter Warrick	wr	121	1259	10.40	5Jerome Pathon	wr	64	674	10.53	1Marty Booker	wr	66	709	10.74	5Andrew Hawkins	wr	71	778	10.96	4David Nelson	wr	92	1011	10.99	8Brandon Gibson	wr	87	968	11.13	3Mike Thomas	wr	114	1273	11.17	5Antonio Chatman	wr	71	795	11.20	5Austin Collie	wr	118	1325	11.23	15Dane Looker	wr	60	678	11.30	3
Only one has been worse than Wright, and almost none of them turned out to be good for longer than the odd year or two.
Yea, and how many of those guys were first round picks? Warrick is the only one on your list who was touted as a difference-maker. Nobody expected guys like Chatman, Nelson, and Gibson to become anything. Nevermind the fact that it's flawed to compare a rookie to what players did in their first two seasons. We don't know what kind of numbers Wright will put up next year. I think the YPC is partially a function of usage. When all you catch is bubble screens and shallow crosses, you are going to have a low yards per catch. We're seeing that this year with Randall Cobb (11.9 YPC) and Wes Welker (11.5 YPC). Wright has been used in a similar capacity. However, I think he has the potential to be a downfield threat. Certainly much moreso than someone like Welker.
 
Anybody know anything about David Fales, the quarterback from San Jose State? He put up gaudy numbers this year in his first year as a starter, in a San Jose State system that has put up some very poor passing numbers in recent years. His listed size is also very good at 6'3, 220lbs.
Yeah, I actually saw him in person this year against Stanford. I had never heard of him, but he definitely caught my eye in that game. Mainly because he just seemed to complete every pass he attempted. I am watching him again today and he looks solid. Arm strength will be a question mark, but he absolutely has "it" in terms of mental talent. Calm, composed, makes good decisions, and is very accurate. He and AJ McCarron from Alabama are two of the less-heralded QBs in this class that I like. I'll take a natural playmaker at QB any day of the week over a prodigious physical talent with zero mental talent (Jake Locker, Tyler Bray, Logan Thomas, etc).
 
Anybody know anything about David Fales, the quarterback from San Jose State? He put up gaudy numbers this year in his first year as a starter, in a San Jose State system that has put up some very poor passing numbers in recent years. His listed size is also very good at 6'3, 220lbs.
Yeah, I actually saw him in person this year against Stanford. I had never heard of him, but he definitely caught my eye in that game. Mainly because he just seemed to complete every pass he attempted. I am watching him again today and he looks solid. Arm strength will be a question mark, but he absolutely has "it" in terms of mental talent. Calm, composed, makes good decisions, and is very accurate. He and AJ McCarron from Alabama are two of the less-heralded QBs in this class that I like. I'll take a natural playmaker at QB any day of the week over a prodigious physical talent with zero mental talent (Jake Locker, Tyler Bray, Logan Thomas, etc).
Fales redshirted his freshman year at Nevada before transferring out. Could have been the successor to Colin Kaepernick.San Jose State has a new coach next year, so that might impact his decision to declare.
 
WRs who caught at least 60 passes in their first two years in the league who also had less than 11.5ypc:

Code:
Rec	Yds	Avg.   TDsAndre Caldwell	wr	62	510	8.23	3Kendall Wright	wr	62	586	9.45	4Steve Smith (NY)wr	65	637	9.80	1Davone Bess	wr	130	1312	10.09	3Antwaan Randle  wr	84	853	10.15	3Eddie Royal	wr	128	1325	10.35	5Peter Warrick	wr	121	1259	10.40	5Jerome Pathon	wr	64	674	10.53	1Marty Booker	wr	66	709	10.74	5Andrew Hawkins	wr	71	778	10.96	4David Nelson	wr	92	1011	10.99	8Brandon Gibson	wr	87	968	11.13	3Mike Thomas	wr	114	1273	11.17	5Antonio Chatman	wr	71	795	11.20	5Austin Collie	wr	118	1325	11.23	15Dane Looker	wr	60	678	11.30	3
Only one has been worse than Wright, and almost none of them turned out to be good for longer than the odd year or two.
Yea, and how many of those guys were first round picks? Warrick is the only one on your list who was touted as a difference-maker. Nobody expected guys like Chatman, Nelson, and Gibson to become anything. Nevermind the fact that it's flawed to compare a rookie to what players did in their first two seasons. We don't know what kind of numbers Wright will put up next year. I think the YPC is partially a function of usage. When all you catch is bubble screens and shallow crosses, you are going to have a low yards per catch. We're seeing that this year with Randall Cobb (11.9 YPC) and Wes Welker (11.5 YPC). Wright has been used in a similar capacity. However, I think he has the potential to be a downfield threat. Certainly much moreso than someone like Welker.
:goodposting:His low YPC is absolutely a result of usage. I had particular interest in the Titans this year (F U Kenny Britt) so I saw a good amount of every game. Wright never seemed to get targeted downfield. Some will point at his combine numbers and say he's just not a deep threat. I strongly disagree. He looks plenty fast and quick out there. It boils down to Locker being terrible and the disaster that was their o-line this year due to the numerous injuries. Throw a bad QB behind a makeshift line and you aren't going to have WRs running deep. Wright will be a good one. Not great. But good.
 
Does this guy remind anyone of Matt Forte or what?

Zurlon Tipton, RB rJR Central Michigan

6'1" 220lbs

 
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Top 10 Bowl Matchups... from a talent evaluator's perspective

By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com

December 26, 2012 9:06 pm ET

Bowl games provide talent evaluators with a wonderful opportunity to gauge prospects in a unique setting. Not only are many of the prospects healthier than they've been in months, in most cases they're facing opponents they've never seen and in an environment in which they've never played. Simply put, bowl games take players out of their comfort zone.

There are literally hundreds of individual matchups scouts will be analyzing over the bowl season. For those unable to take in every one of this year's 35 bowl games, NFLDraftScout.com has you covered.

The following, ranked from intriguing to absolutely must-see, are the top 10 matchups of the 2012 bowl season, from an NFL draft perspective. All game times are listed in the eastern time zone.

10. Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews vs. North Carolina State CB David Amerson: The 6-3, 205 pound Matthews (who ranks as NFLDraftScout.com's No. 9 receiver in the 2014 draft class) finished the regular season sixth in the country with just over 105 receiving yards per game. At 6-2, 194 pounds, Amerson has the length to matchup nicely with Matthews and is reportedly considering taking his talents to the NFL. Amerson is the NCAA's active career leader with 18 interceptions. The Commodores and Wolfpack will face off at noon (Eastern) December 31 in the Music City Bowl.

9. Wisconsin RB Montee Ball vs. Stanford LB Shayne Skov:

Few headlining prospects throughout the country play the Rodney Dangerfield role more ably than Ball or Skov. Despite bouncing back from a tough off-season and beginning of his senior campaign, Ball rushed for more yards this season than any FBS running back playing out of a traditional pro-style attack. Oh, by the way, he also set the career record for the most touchdowns (83) scored by a running back despite being the focus of every defense the Badgers faced this season, among the reasons he's my top-rated back. Skov looked like a future first round pick early in his career but hasn't played with the same fluidity in 2012 after missing all but the first three games last season due to tearing the ACL and MCL in his left knee. He's played better as the season has gone on and could use this game as the decisive factor in determining whether he's heading to the NFL or petitioning the NCAA for a fifth year of eligibility due to the 2011 injury. The Badgers and Cardinal will face off at 5:00 pm January 1 in the Rose Bowl.

8. Kansas State LB Arthur Brown vs. Oregon RB Kenjon Barner:

Quarterback Collin Klein got most of the credit for KSU's spectacular season but in reality the Wildcats' defense – the Big 12's stingiest in terms of points allowed – deserved equal praise. Much of this should go to their senior linebacker Brown, a 6-1, 228 pound heat-seeking missile with more straight-line speed than any linebacker Barner and the explosive Quack Attack have faced this year. Barner, of course, has plenty of speed, himself, but the 5-11, 192 pound back hasn't always played with the physicality scouts would like to see. Some might be surprised by the fact that NFLDraftScout.com views him as just a third day prospect. A big Fiesta Bowl against a disciplined, hard-hitting Wildcats' defense could boost that grade. The Wildcats and Ducks will face off at 8:30 pm January 3 in the Fiesta Bowl.

7. Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas vs. Rutgers LB Khaseem Greene:

In most “one on one” battles of the bowl season, quarterbacks often have to worry most about pass rushers or defensive backs than middle linebackers but neither Thomas nor Greene are your typical athletes. The 6-6, 260 pound Thomas has spectacular upside but remains quite raw as a passer and, frankly, the Hokies relied more on his team-leading 532 rushing yards and nine touchdowns than they did his 52.6% completion percentage much of the year. As such, the instinctive, playmaking Greene should play a huge role if Rutgers is to slow down the Hokies' attack. Greene, a former safety, has created 19 turnovers (12 forced fumbles, six interceptions, one fumble recovery) over his career and is projected by NFLDraftScout.com as a second round pick. The Hokies and Scarlet Knights will face off at 5:30 pm December 28 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

6. Georgia LB Alec Ogletree vs. Nebraska RB Rex Burkhead:

Judging by their wholly opposite performances in their conference championship games, some believe the Capital One Bowl could be a mismatch. I find it one of the more compelling evaluation opportunities of the bowl season in large part due to the one on one battle between Ogletree, arguably the country's most athletic linebacker and Burkhead, a tough, determined back with better overall athleticism than most given him credit for. The 6-3, 234 pound Ogletree ranks as NFLDraftScout.com's No. 2 ILB in the 2014 draft class due to his upside but he is not yet a great open-field tackler. Burkhead has slipped to NFLDraftScout.com's No. 15 rated back as he missed much of the year with a sprained knee but, when healthy, he's shown the elusiveness and vision to make defenders miss. The Bulldogs and Cornhuskers will face off at 1:00 pm January 1 in the Capital One Bowl.

5. Oregon State WR Markus Wheaton vs. Texas CB Carrington Byndom:

Having jumped from one receiving touchdown in 2011 to 12 this season, there may not be a senior receiver in the country who has boosted his stock more than Oregon State's Wheaton. He (along with fellow OSU wideout Brandin Cooks, a true sophomore) is electric with the ball in his hands, showing the elusiveness and straight-line speed to turn short catches into long gains.It is this fact which makes his matchup against an equally athletic Byndon all the more intriguing. While Byndom possesses the quick feet, fluid hips and speed to handle coverage responsibilities, the junior has struggled at times this year with tackling in the open field. The Beavers and Longhorns will face off at 6:45 pm December 29 in the Alamo Bowl.

4. Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore vs. Oklahoma LT Lane Johnson:

Let the talking heads focus on the high profile quarterbacks in the Cotton Bowl, talent evaluators know that the true showdown in this contest will be between the Aggies' Do-Everything Moore and Johnson, the arguably fastest-rising offensive tackle prospect in the country. Despite switching from a stand-up outside linebacker role to a more traditional down defensive end this season, Moore accomplished the rare feat of leading his team in tackles (80), tackles for loss (20) and sacks (12.5) throughout the regular season. Quite used to facing off against elite blockers (since his teammates, Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews are our top-rated prospects at the position), he'll be better prepared than most for handling the unique athleticism that Johnson provides the Sooners at left tackle. The 6-6, 303 pound former JUCO quarterback and tight end has the quick feet, balance and long arms scouts are looking for at left tackle and has played very well at this position in 2012 – his first on the blindside. The Aggies and Sooners will face off at 8:00 pm January 4 in the Cotton Bowl.

3. Clemson QB Tajh Boyd vs. LSU FS Eric Reid:

It was Clemson's Boyd, not Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel, who led the FBS with an average of 21.83 points per game this year. Possessing a live, accurate arm, very good mobility and spectacular talent around him, Boyd will present the equally athletic LSU defense with arguably the toughest dual threat they've faced since intercepting Manziel three times in a 24-19 Tigers' victory October 20. Reid, NFLDraftScout.com's top-rated safety, attacks the line of scrimmage like a linebacker, which should limit Boyd's effectiveness as a runner. Reid's aggression makes him a potential liability against good play-action, however. If Boyd can show improved poise against the LSU pass rush and loft a few deep balls to star wideouts DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins, the junior could quickly catapult his way up draft boards. This battle for the “Tigers” moniker will take place at 7:30 pm December 31 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

2. Alabama RT D.J. Fluker vs. Notre Dame DE Stephon Tuitt

With all due respect to the star “skill position” players for Alabama and Notre Dame, this game will be won or lost in the trenches. Most presume that the Tide have the significant advantage in this area, considering Nick Saban's history of churning out NFL defensive linemen and an offensive line that boasts three of the top 40 prospects (at least in my opinion) potentially eligible for the 2013 NFL draft. The difference between this year's Notre Dame and teams in recent years, however, is unquestionably their defensive line, where a pair of sophomores – nose guard Louis Nix III and the 6-5, 303 pound Tuitt have each shown the size and skill to earn early attention from NFL scouts. Powerful and surprisingly athletic, Tuitt led the Irish with 12 sacks this season. He'll be facing his stiffest test of the year, however, as power football is the 6-6, 335 pound Fluker's specialty and some close to the Alabama program believe he's played his best in big games. Tuitt, on the other hand, collected just two of his sacks over the Irish's final four games. By comparison, he started the season with eight in his first four contests. Regardless of whether Tuitt notches any sacks, his ability to protect the edge could contain Alabama's ability to run the ball. As such, in a very real way, the winner of this one on one battle could determine the national championship. The Crimson Tide and Fighting Irish will face off at 8:30 pm January 7 in the BCS Championship Game.

1. South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney vs. Michigan LT Taylor Lewan:

It would require a true clash of the titans to steal the thunder from the one on one battle I believe could determine the 2012 BCS champion but that is precisely what is on tap between Clowney and Lewan in the Outback Bowl. Though only a true sophomore (and therefore ineligible for the 2013 NFL draft), the 6-6, 256 pound Clowney is simply the best player in college football. He led the SEC with 13 sacks this season and is just as dominant against the run, demonstrating a combination of size, athleticism and unbridled explosiveness that has forced most opponents to routinely double or even triple-team him. With that said, Clowney has not faced an offensive tackle with Lewan's size and ability. The 6-7, 310 pound redshirt junior is NFLDraftScout.com's No. 11 rated overall prospect for the 2013 draft and is not only very athletic for a man of his size, he's also both physically and mentally tough. Add to this equation Michigan's frenetically-paced offense and dual threat passers Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner and Clowney – as good as he is -- may not have the impact on this game he normally would. From an NFL talent evaluator's perspective, it sure is going to be entertaining to see him try. The Gamecocks and Wolverines will face off at 1:00 pm January 1 in the Outback Bowl.
 
Geno Smith, Mike Glennon among top prospects in bowl games

By Bucky Brooks

Analyst, NFL.com and NFL Network

Published: Dec. 27, 2012 at 05:50 p.m.

Updated: Dec. 27, 2012 at 06:58 p.m.

Late-December bowl games provide NFL scouts with several opportunities to see top prospects duke it out in competitive games on big stages. Although these performances are only viewed as a small piece of the evaluation puzzle, scouts certainly pay close attention to how the prospects play because it provides a preview of how they will perform at the next level against elite competition.

Given that premise, here are some of the guys I will be watching over the next few days to see how they stack up against legit opposition.

* Denotes underclassmen

Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

Friday, Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Khaseem Greene, OLB, Rutgers: After transitioning from the safety position prior to the 2011 season, Greene has evolved into one of college football's top linebackers as a senior. He is a tackling machine with exceptional instincts, awareness and production. While some question Greene's size (6-foot-1, 239 pounds) and physicality against lead blockers, the fact that he has racked up 10-plus tackles in seven games suggests that he has a knack for getting to the ball, despite his slender frame. Facing a Virginia Tech squad that prefers smashmouth football over a finesse approach, Greene has another opportunity to show scouts that he has what it takes to be a difference maker at the next level.

Logan Thomas*, QB, Virginia Tech: Thomas entered the season as one of the top quarterbacks in college football. However, the Virginia Tech signal-caller failed to play up to expectations for most of his redshirt junior season, and scouts are wondering if he really has the goods to be a franchise player at the next level. Although he possesses some blue-chip traits, such as his superior size (6-6, 260), speed and arm talent, Thomas has been inconsistent; it's imperative that he put on a show against the Scarlet Knights to build positive momentum. How well he fares in this showcase could have a significant impact on his stock.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia at Syracuse

Saturday, Dec. 29, 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia: Smith has surpassed USC's Matt Barkley as the top quarterback prospect in the 2013 draft class on most boards, based on his spectacular play as a senior. He completed more than 71 percent of his passes with a jaw-dropping 40:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Most importantly, Smith displayed superb arm strength, accuracy and anticipation while directing a Mountaineers spread offense that lit up scoreboards across the Big 12. With another game left to solidify his status as the top signal-caller in the forthcoming draft, Smith must show scouts that his game fits traditional pro-style systems, while also displaying the awareness and savvy to overcome some of the defensive tactics that seemingly gave him problems at the end of the season.

Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey*, WR, West Virginia: It is hard to find a better pass-catching duo than Austin and Bailey. This Mountaineer tandem combined to tally 226 receptions for 2,760 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2012. Austin, who also rushed for 598 yards, is an electric playmaker with speed and quickness. He excels at turning short passes into huge gains, which has scouts comparing him to Minnesota Vikings receiver Percy Harvin. Bailey also has been lauded in the scouting community for his outstanding ball skills and route-running ability. Although he isn't considered a blazer, Bailey's ability to get open consistently against top corners has piqued the interest of NFL evaluators.

Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse: In a draft filled with question marks at the quarterback position, Nassib has emerged as a viable option for NFL teams seeking a quality starter with an outstanding feel for directing a pro-style system. He has shown exceptional arm strength, accuracy and anticipation, but scouts still harbor concerns about whether his game is the byproduct of the Orange's system or a true reflection of his talent. With an opportunity to work against one of the worst defenses in college football, Nassib might put together a blockbuster performance that silences doubters and enhances his draft prospects on boards across the league.

Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas at Oregon State

Saturday, Dec. 29, 6:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

Alex Okafor, DE, Texas: Okafor is one of the top defensive ends in the 2013 draft class, shining against Big 12 competition with his explosive combination of size, strength and power. Okafor finished the season with eight sacks and numerous pressures, displaying solid rush moves that make him an intriguing option for teams looking to improve the pass rush. Some scouts have been unimpressed with Okafor's inconsistent motor and hustle, giving him a "boom-or-bust" label, but his unique combination of skills could make him a high pick.



Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas: The changing nature of the NFL game makes it imperative for defenses to feature safeties with the ability to hit, run and cover. Vaccaro showcased those traits throughout 2012 as a safety/nickel back for the Longhorns. He is a factor in the box against the run, but also displays the ability to cover tight ends and slot receivers in space. Facing an Oregon State receiving corps that features several dynamic options -- including Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks -- Vaccaro's cover skills will be put to the test in the Alamo Bowl.

Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State: Poyer has quietly developed into one of the top cover corners in college football. He is an instinctive playmaker with fantastic ball skills. Most importantly, Poyer displays the ability to lock down receivers on the perimeter or in the slot as a nickel defender. With seven interceptions in only 11 games, Poyer has entered the conversation as a potential second-round pick, but scouts still question whether he has the speed and athleticism to cover elite receivers at the next level. Against a Longhorns squad that features a few athletic pass catchers, Poyer will have a chance to address his naysayers in his final collegiate performance.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: N.C. State at Vanderbilt

Monday, Dec. 31, Noon ET, ESPN

Mike Glennon, QB, N.C. State: Glennon has steadily climbed up the charts during a strong senior campaign. He completed more than 57 percent of his passes for 3,648 yards with 30 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. While some point to his underwhelming completion percentage as a reflection of Glennon's inconsistent accuracy, the senior is playing with an inexperienced receiving corps that has struggled to hold on to the ball for most of the season. Given another opportunity to display his talent on a big stage, Glennon can prove to NFL scouts that his game is pro-ready and his natural talent is unrivaled at the position. If Glennon puts on a strong performance in the Music City Bowl, he could see his stock continue to rise until he's a possible consideration on Day 1.

David Amerson*, CB, N.C. State: Amerson suffered through an up-and-down 2012 campaign, but the junior is still viewed as one of the best defensive playmakers in college football. He has tallied an incredible 18 interceptions over the past two seasons, while showcasing remarkable hands, instincts and awareness. However, scouts have concerns about his speed and man-to-man cover skills after watching several receivers run past him on deep routes. To alleviate those concerns, Amerson must show sound technique and skill against the Commodores, while continuing to make plays on the ball.

Hyundai Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. USC

Monday, Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ET, CBS

Robert Woods*, WR, USC: There is no doubt that Woods is one of the most complete receivers in college football. He is a polished pass catcher with the size, speed and skill to thrive as a No. 1 receiver at the next level. While his statistical output has declined with the emergence of the ultra-explosive Marqise Lee, Woods is still held in high regard in the NFL scouting community. In what could be Woods' final performance as a collegian (he is expected to declare his intentions following the game), he can show evaluators that he is capable of being a top option for an offense seeking an anchor in the passing game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs. LSU

Monday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Barkevious Mingo* and Sam Montgomery*, DE, LSU: The Tigers' pass-rushing tandem is unquestionably one of the most talented duos in college football. Mingo and Montgomery terrorize opponents with speed, quickness and athleticism off the edges. Both have shown the capacity to take over games, but scouts would like to see each player dominate consistently as an edge rusher. Facing a high-powered Clemson team led by a dangerous quarterback (Tajh Boyd), Mingo and Montgomery must show scouts they are capable of wreaking havoc on a big stage. How they fare in this New Year's Eve clash could significantly impact their draft values, should either decide to enter April's event.

DeAndre Hopkins*, WR, Clemson: Hopkins lived in Sammy Watkins' shadow last season, but he emerged as the Tigers' top playmaker in the passing game in 2012. Hopkins snagged 69 passes for 1,214 yards and 16 touchdowns, while displaying exceptional speed and explosiveness on the perimeter. Although he hasn't declared his intention to enter the 2013 draft, Hopkins has shown enough playmaking ability to make some noise at the next level. With a big performance against a talented LSU secondary, he will cement his status as one of the top playmakers in college football.

Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson: Ellington is arguably the top senior running back in the 2013 class. He is a speedster with outstanding burst, quickness and home-run ability. Ellington excels on the perimeter, but has shown more grit between the tackles as a senior. This has raised his value in the minds of scouts, but questions persist about his size (5-9, 190), toughness and durability. Facing a big, physical LSU front seven, Ellington can prove to evaluators that he has the capacity to grind it out against a rugged squad. If he can show a willingness to pick up the tough, three- and four-yard gains, Ellington can erase some doubts and creep into the conversation as a Day 2 selection.
 
Top 10 Bowl Matchups... from a talent evaluator's perspective

By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com

December 26, 2012 9:06 pm ET

Bowl games provide talent evaluators with a wonderful opportunity to gauge prospects in a unique setting. Not only are many of the prospects healthier than they've been in months, in most cases they're facing opponents they've never seen and in an environment in which they've never played. Simply put, bowl games take players out of their comfort zone.

There are literally hundreds of individual matchups scouts will be analyzing over the bowl season. For those unable to take in every one of this year's 35 bowl games, NFLDraftScout.com has you covered.

The following, ranked from intriguing to absolutely must-see, are the top 10 matchups of the 2012 bowl season, from an NFL draft perspective. All game times are listed in the eastern time zone.

10. Vanderbilt WR Jordan Matthews vs. North Carolina State CB David Amerson: The 6-3, 205 pound Matthews (who ranks as NFLDraftScout.com's No. 9 receiver in the 2014 draft class) finished the regular season sixth in the country with just over 105 receiving yards per game. At 6-2, 194 pounds, Amerson has the length to matchup nicely with Matthews and is reportedly considering taking his talents to the NFL. Amerson is the NCAA's active career leader with 18 interceptions. The Commodores and Wolfpack will face off at noon (Eastern) December 31 in the Music City Bowl.
This should be an interesting matchup but after seeing Amerson get torched by Clemson, I wonder how high his stock really is right now. Also, I think Matthews is NFL ready right now. Does anyone know what the QB spot looks like behind Rodgers? With him and Stacy graduating, may make sense for Matthews to declare this year.
 
Logan Thomas is a horrible QB. Just a statue with no passing instincts.

Marcus Davis is a demon though. He has a chance to be the best WR from this draft in the NFL.

 
'EBF said:
Logan Thomas is a horrible QB. Just a statue with no passing instincts. Marcus Davis is a demon though. He has a chance to be the best WR from this draft in the NFL.
Between thomas's flaws and the design of that offense, in the two or three games I saw Davis I can't tell anything about his football skill. Never knew why thomas got his pre-season hype. Outside of kinda looking like Cam newton, thomas has not really played that well. he was actually better in 2011, but not 1st round good. the fact that davis and fuller are probably both draftable dudes does not help his case at al.
 
Their line is horrible and Tech has never been known for its passing offense, but a lot of it is on Thomas. He has a football IQ fit for the short bus.

Davis looks good. Fluid runner and well put together. A poor man's Demaryius Thomas. Doesn't look like he plays up to his 40 speed and has a tendency to let passes get into his body. Still might be the best overall athlete at the WR position in the draft. Looks like Vincent Jackson physically. Pure receiving ability will be the question mark. He's no Keenan Allen or Marquess Wilson in that department. Then again, Tech is a horrible place to develop as a WR. Davis is one of those guys who could be a better pro than college player. A bit of a late bloomer.

 
Cody Hoffman staying.https://twitter.com/Cody_Hoffman2/statuses/284889538717949955

proud to announce that I'll be returning to BYU for my senior year with my boys! #2013
 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypc this year looks great for Wright.
Admittedly didn't watch much Tennessee this year, but I'm going to reserve judgment here because of an awful offensive coordinator and a QB with accuracy issues (actually the reason I cooled on Wright before dyno drafts). He also came from an offense that was more of a street ball design, so the learning curve should be a bit longer too. Goes to show how far Josh GOrdon came since August though.
 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypc this year looks great for Wright.
Admittedly didn't watch much Tennessee this year, but I'm going to reserve judgment here because of an awful offensive coordinator and a QB with accuracy issues (actually the reason I cooled on Wright before dyno drafts). He also came from an offense that was more of a street ball design, so the learning curve should be a bit longer too. Goes to show how far Josh GOrdon came since August though.
I was impressed with Gordon for the most part. Those who gave up their 2nd rd rookie pick in order to draft him in their supplemental draft, did very well for themselves. The jury is still out for those who gave a 1st.
 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypc this year looks great for Wright.
Admittedly didn't watch much Tennessee this year, but I'm going to reserve judgment here because of an awful offensive coordinator and a QB with accuracy issues (actually the reason I cooled on Wright before dyno drafts). He also came from an offense that was more of a street ball design, so the learning curve should be a bit longer too. Goes to show how far Josh GOrdon came since August though.
Wright played well this year. The fact that he could earn so many targets (and catches) on a team with so much receiver depth speaks volumes about his ability. The low yards per catch is almost entirely a function of running a ton of receiver screens and curls that it him the ball standing still and between 0 and 4 yards downfield. He made a number of impressive catches as well. His problem at the moment comes from the fact that jake locker would rather throw downfield in to quadruple coverage than look at his third option in the middle of the field. His low accuracy comes from such a habit. That means fewer sustained drives, fewer completions to go around.

For wright to be productive he needs (1) Jared cook to leave town (2) so that wright can get the drags and slants in the middle of the field and (3) a coordinator who realizes he needs the ball on the run and (4) a quarterback who doesn't see every down as a reason to show off his deep-out arm strength.

 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypc this year looks great for Wright.
Admittedly didn't watch much Tennessee this year, but I'm going to reserve judgment here because of an awful offensive coordinator and a QB with accuracy issues (actually the reason I cooled on Wright before dyno drafts). He also came from an offense that was more of a street ball design, so the learning curve should be a bit longer too. Goes to show how far Josh GOrdon came since August though.
I was impressed with Gordon for the most part. Those who gave up their 2nd rd rookie pick in order to draft him in their supplemental draft, did very well for themselves. The jury is still out for those who gave a 1st.
For me, it depends where that 1st round pick is located.
 
I was one of Wright's biggest defenders last year, so...I guess I just disagree with you on Bailey then. Bailey will probably fall because of his combine, much like most (incorrectly) questioned Wright because of his. On the field Bailey reminds me a lot of what I saw from Wright.
Yeah, that 62 recpt / 9.5 ypc this year looks great for Wright.
Admittedly didn't watch much Tennessee this year, but I'm going to reserve judgment here because of an awful offensive coordinator and a QB with accuracy issues (actually the reason I cooled on Wright before dyno drafts). He also came from an offense that was more of a street ball design, so the learning curve should be a bit longer too. Goes to show how far Josh GOrdon came since August though.
I was impressed with Gordon for the most part. Those who gave up their 2nd rd rookie pick in order to draft him in their supplemental draft, did very well for themselves. The jury is still out for those who gave a 1st.
For me, it depends where that 1st round pick is located.
I thought about that as I was making that post. I agree, the risk goes down as the pick does too.
 
Geno and Nassib both played terribly in the first half of their bowl game. The weather conditions are far from ideal, but they both looked really bad.

 
Geno and Nassib both played terribly in the first half of their bowl game. The weather conditions are far from ideal, but they both looked really bad.
Yea, I agree. The offense that WVU is running is also making it difficult to evaluate Geno. He's throwing nothing but screen passes.
 
Geno and Nassib both played terribly in the first half of their bowl game. The weather conditions are far from ideal, but they both looked really bad.
Yea, I agree. The offense that WVU is running is also making it difficult to evaluate Geno. He's throwing nothing but screen passes.
They run an all or nothing offense. I missed today's game, but am guessing from the above that they scratched the down field aspect of the game due to the weather. Once defenses adjusted to Geno's early season explosion it took moving Austin to tailback a la Randall Cobb before he was able to get back to form. I'm still most optimistic about him amongst the available QB's coming out, but there are definitely flaws in his game that will need to be coached up.
 
With the QB talent in this draft, smart teams shouldn't be going QB with a top 10 pick. You have to admire what Cincinnati and San Francisco did in the 2011 draft. They grabbed top rated player on their board and then got their QB in round 2. I wonder if teams like KC and the Jags will have the courage/wisdom to make that decision.

 
With the QB talent in this draft, smart teams shouldn't be going QB with a top 10 pick. You have to admire what Cincinnati and San Francisco did in the 2011 draft. They grabbed top rated player on their board and then got their QB in round 2. I wonder if teams like KC and the Jags will have the courage/wisdom to make that decision.
That's a very good question.I'd lean unlikely..
 
With the QB talent in this draft, smart teams shouldn't be going QB with a top 10 pick. You have to admire what Cincinnati and San Francisco did in the 2011 draft. They grabbed top rated player on their board and then got their QB in round 2. I wonder if teams like KC and the Jags will have the courage/wisdom to make that decision.
Cannot make future decisions based on past results, asking for trouble. Up until Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson all of the data swung towards having to get a QB in round 1, usually at the top. Are the last two drafts the anamolies? or the beginning of a trend?
 
QB class wide open after Smith's slip-ups in Pinstripe Bowl

By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com

December 29, 2012 8:38 pm ET

A disappointing performance in Saturday's Pinstripe Bowl from West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith will drop his NFL draft stock and trigger a race between a group of rather underwhelming candidates to be the first passer selected in the 2013 NFL draft.

Smith, playing Syracuse for the first time since a humbling upset loss to the Orangemen in October 2011, was sacked for one safety and drew a flag for intentional grounding for another in a 38-14 loss on the snow-covered turf of Yankee Stadium.

Smith's statistics weren't bad (16-for-24 for 187 yards, two TDs/0 INTs), but they were significantly inflated by three big plays to Stedman Bailey that, after closer review, weren't as impressive in reality as they are in print.

Each of the first two completions, good for 32 yards (and a touchdown) and 59 yards, respectively, came off of quick screens in which Smith soft-tossed the ball just a few yards. Smith threw what looked like a well-placed deep ball down the left sideline to Bailey for a 29-yard touchdown in the third quarter, but the throw was made easier when the Syracuse defender covering Bailey lost his footing, leaving the WVU pass catcher alone for the uncontested reception. Other than those three plays, Smith completed 13 passes for a total of 67 yards in the final game that he'll play for West Virginia.

Statistics, of course, can be bent to prove just about anything in football, but the reality is Smith made troubling mental and physical errors against Syracuse. He failed to recognize the blitz off the right side that led to his taking the sack for the first safety. Worse, he was not consistently accurate, short-hopping intermediate routes down the middle and the sideline and sailing a deep ball far out of bounds against single coverage.

To be fair to Smith (and Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib), the conditions weren't favorable. It was snowing throughout the game, and the moisture made for poor footing and a slick ball. Both teams dropped several well-thrown passes, and there were botched center-quarterback exchanges from both sides, as well.

It wasn't such terrible conditions, however, that the talent evaluators in attendance won't grade the quarterbacks harshly, especially Smith, who has previously struggled in poor weather.

For the West Virginia passer, Saturday was the complete opposite of the eye-popping performance of nearly a year ago that sparked his rise to the top of the quarterback charts.

Boasting better size, arm strength, athleticism and statistics than preseason darling Matt Barkley, the 6-3, 215 pound Smith shot up past the USC Trojans' star to the top of NFLDraftScout.com's board. While Barkley and Arkansas' Tyler Wilson were adjusting to inexperienced supporting casts, Smith started off the regular season just the way he'd begun 2012, by shredding defenses. Over a six-game stretch extending from last year's 70-33 demolishing of Clemson in the Orange Bowl to a rousing victory over Texas on Oct. 6, Smith was magnificent, tossing 31 touchdowns and zero interceptions and leading WVU to an undefeated record.

Texas Tech provided the blueprint for shutting down the mighty West Virginia offense a week later, however, by pressuring Smith early and limiting the run-after-catch ability of Bailey and his teammate Tavon Austin. The Mountaineers would lose their next four games and, as it turns out, six of their final eight.

The perception -- whether deserved or not -- will be that Smith failed to lead the Mountaineers to victories in six of their last games.

The 2013 class of quarterbacks is lacking in the "sure things" of recent years. The tight rankings could force Smith to play in the Senior Bowl or another prominent all-star game to stabilize his stock.

If he were to do so -- and wound up going No. 1 overall as Dane Brugler and I are currently projecting -- it would be the first time a quarterback who played in a senior all-star game was the first passer selected in his respective draft class since 2003. That year, talent evaluators got to watch then-USC star Carson Palmer erase any doubt that he was the top prospect with a spectacular week in Mobile, Ala., in the Senior Bowl.

Regardless of whether Smith elects to play one last game with the Mountaineers' helmet or wait for the workout sessions from the Combine and/or his Pro Day, nervous NFL decision-makers are eager to see a quarterback -- any quarterback -- pull away in the race to April.
 
With the QB talent in this draft, smart teams shouldn't be going QB with a top 10 pick. You have to admire what Cincinnati and San Francisco did in the 2011 draft. They grabbed top rated player on their board and then got their QB in round 2. I wonder if teams like KC and the Jags will have the courage/wisdom to make that decision.
Cannot make future decisions based on past results, asking for trouble. Up until Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson all of the data swung towards having to get a QB in round 1, usually at the top. Are the last two drafts the anamolies? or the beginning of a trend?
Huh? If you shouldn't make future decisions based on past results then why do drafts that occurred pre-2011 matter at all?
 
With the QB talent in this draft, smart teams shouldn't be going QB with a top 10 pick. You have to admire what Cincinnati and San Francisco did in the 2011 draft. They grabbed top rated player on their board and then got their QB in round 2. I wonder if teams like KC and the Jags will have the courage/wisdom to make that decision.
Cannot make future decisions based on past results, asking for trouble. Up until Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson all of the data swung towards having to get a QB in round 1, usually at the top. Are the last two drafts the anamolies? or the beginning of a trend?
Huh? If you shouldn't make future decisions based on past results then why do drafts that occurred pre-2011 matter at all?
previous drafts only matter in terms of the personnel that you may current have on your roster. A team's current year (2013) draft strategy needs to be based on the talent avialable, a team's picks, and its ability to trade around and get the player's the organization thinks will make it a better football team. Because some team drafted QBs in the 2nd round a couple years ago does not mean, it works in 2013. Each draft is its entity.
 
NFL Draft prospects to watch in bowl games: Part 3

Tony Pauline

Breaking down the players to watch in the season's first batch of bowl games, as well as a projection as to where they'll be drafted.

Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina State vs Vanderbilt

Mike Glennon/QB/North Carolina State: Glennon's physical skills are the talk of the draft world and many have predicted the senior will be a first-round selection. He possesses the arm strength to start at the next level, but throws with inconsistent mechanics and makes questionable decisions. Glennon is a solid quarterback prospect who needs work before he'll be NFL ready. 2nd/3rd Round

Jordan Matthews/WR/Vanderbilt: The Vanderbilt junior turned in a career campaign and now ranks as a legitimate second-day draft choice. Matthews is well-sized with reliable hands and has a nose for the big play. He's the go-to receiver opponents cannot contain and projects as a third wideout at the next level. 3rd Round

David Amerson/CB/North Carolina State: Amerson's play slumped this season after a productive sophomore campaign which included 13 interceptions. He was consistently victimized by opposing passers, giving up long gainers which resulted in touchdowns. Amerson is expected to enter the draft and moves towards April with a declining grade. 3rd Round

Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs USC

Matt Barkley/QB/USC: Barkley chose to forgo last April's draft in anticipation of a national title run with the Trojans and a Heisman Trophy campaign for himself. Neither came to fruition, and Barkley has watched his draft stock plummet. He showed a lack of poise and poor decision-making on the field this season. The shoulder injury he sustained in the loss to UCLA, which is expected to keep him out of the Sun Bowl, adds another red flag to his resume. 1st Round

Robert Woods/WR/USC: Woods took a back seat to super sophomore Marqise Lee this season and his production significantly slid. The junior offers reliable hands, runs effective pass routes and occasionally turns in the big play. He's a solid prospect with potential as a No. 2 wideout at the next level. 2nd Round

T.J. McDonald/S/USC: McDonald is the third Trojan moving toward the draft with a declining grade. He's a forceful defender at the top of his game and a safety who stops the run or effectively patrols centerfield in coverage. McDonald looked slow to react at times last season but scouts are enticed by his size and the skill he formerly displayed. 2nd Round



Jeremiah Attaochu/LB/Georgia Tech: The junior linebacker has proven himself to be a forceful defender the pass two seasons. He's effective stuffing the run or making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Attaochu is a menace in the box but needs to polish his skills in coverage to complete his game. 4th Round

Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs Tulsa

A.J. Klein/LB/Iowa State: Klein has been a tackling machine the past three seasons at Iowa State and a linebacker who plays hard for 60 minutes. He combines outstanding instincts and toughness, quickly finding the ball handler then selling out to make plays. He offers a complete game and will be an asset on special teams at the next level. 5th/6th Round

Willie Carter/FB/Tulsa: Carter is an accomplished pass catcher with a combined 109 receptions the past two seasons. He offers next-level size (6-foot-2 and 230 pounds) as well as speed (4.6 seconds) and has shown the ability to carry the ball in short-yardage situations. Carter projects as a West Coast fullback for the NFL. 7th Round

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs LSU

Barkevious Mingo/DE-OLB/LSU: The Tigers star prospect entered his junior season with high expectations, but failed to produce on the field. Mingo previously displayed himself to be a forceful defender who altered the momentum of games with big plays. In 2012 he disappeared for stretches at a time which has scouts concerned. He's gone from a top-five selection to a mid-first-round choice, but the talent is available for Mingo to be a big-time NFL player. 1st Round

Sam Montgomery/DE/LSU: Montgomery is another junior defender who performed below expectations last season. Ordinarily he's impossible to stop, but Montgomery displayed little consistency on the field in 2012. He offers large upside, but his play last season coupled with character questions have raised red flags. 1st Round

Bennie Logan/DT/LSU: Logan is the third LSU defensive lineman who did not consistently play to his level of ability this year. He's an explosive interior defender with the ability to stuff the run or rush the passer. Like his fellow teammates, Logan possesses the natural ability to start on the NFL level. 1st Round

DeAndre Hopkins/WR/Clemson: Hopkins stepped up his game in 2012 and as a result has risen up draft boards. The junior proved to be reliable and also showed a nose for the end zone. His game is polished and Hopkins offers the tools to be a second wideout at the next level. 2nd Round

Andre Ellington/RB/Clemson: Ellington was the perfect ball carrier for Clemson's high powered offense. He's an intelligent back who runs with both vision and toughness. Ellington also lends a hand as a receiver out of the backfield. He lacks the size NFL teams desire for a feature running back but will find a niche as a change of pace player. 2nd Round

Eric Reid/S/LSU: Reid has been a consistent centerfielder for LSU the past two seasons. He's a forceful run defender who effectively covers receivers between the numbers. Reid has the substance and style to get consideration as a zone safety at the next level. 3rd Round

Gator Bowl: Mississippi State vs Northwestern

Johnthan Banks/CB/Mississippi State: Banks has been a productive cornerback for the Bulldogs since 2010 and offers a nice combination of size and smarts. He possesses the strength to play in man coverage as well as the instincts to line up in a zone system. Banks moves towards Aprils as the draft's top-rated senior cornerback. 2nd Round

Gabe Jackson/G/Mississippi State: Jackson is a behemoth blocker who has displayed progress in his game the past three seasons. He mauls defenders on the line of scrimmage and moves well for a 315-pound lineman. Jackson comes with a large upside and should only improve with experience. 3rd Round

Josh Boyd/DT/Mississippi State: Boyd is an explosive lineman who displays the ability to stop the run or make plays behind the line of scrimmage. He struggled in 2012 after Fletcher Cox left MSU for the NFL, possesses a nice combination of quickness and movement skills. 4th/5th Round

David Nwabuisi/OLB/Northwestern: Nwabuisi has lined up at both middle and outside linebacker the past two seasons and displays versatility to his game. He possesses a nose for the football and stands out in pursuit. He'll be an asset at the next level as a backup linebacker and special teams player. 7th Round

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Purdue vs Oklahoma State

Kawann Short/DT/Purdue: Short opted to forgo last April's draft and return for his senior campaign yet never elevated his game in 2012. He's a monstrous interior lineman that's impossible to stop when running on all cylinders. Short disappeared for stretches this season and scouts feel he should've been more dominant. 2nd Round

Joseph Randle/RB/Oklahoma State: Randle showed the ability to carry the load for a second straight season as the Cowboys feature ball carrier. He's an explosive back who quickly gets through the running lanes then beats defenders into the open field. Randle is also effective as a pass catcher out of the backfield and projects as a situational ball handler for the next level. 3rd Round

Josh Johnson/CB/Purdue: Johnson is an underrated cover corner with solid ball skills. He effectively lines up in man coverage and sticks to receivers everywhere on the field. He has the uncanny ability to defend deep passes, reading receivers eyes then tracking the ball down the field. Johnson offers potential as a dime back/special teams player in the NFL. 6th Round

Outback Bowl: Michigan vs South Carolina

Taylor Lewan/T/Michigan: Lewan is a tremendous tackle prospect who combines size, athleticism and fundamentals to dominate opponents. He's a solid pass protector who also possesses the ability to get out front and block on the move. The junior is expected to forgo his senior season and will be an early selection in April's draft. 1st Round

Denard Robinson/WR-RB-RS/Michigan: Starting at quarterback for the Wolverines since his sophomore season Robinson is expected to transition to a new position in the NFL. He's an electrifying player with the ability to make defenders miss and pick up big chunks of yardage carrying the ball. Robinson also displayed pass catching skill last season as he totaled 10 receptions, 7 which resulted in touchdowns. He's a terrific athlete who should quickly adjust to a new position at the next level. 2nd/3rd Round

D.J. Swearinger/S/South Carolina: The Gamecock defensive back is a complete safety who has fallen under the radar screen. He's quick up the field in run defense and has the ball skills necessary to play over the slot receiver. Swearinger possesses next level size as well as starting potential. 3rd Round

Capital One Bowl: Georgia vs Nebraska

Jarvis Jones/OLB/Georgia: There's not much left to say about Jones, who proved himself to be one of college football's most dominant players in 2012. He's always been a ferocious pass rusher yet Jones completed his game this season. He displayed himself as a fearsome run defender and also made plays in pass coverage. Examinations on the neck injury Jones suffered early in his college career will largely dictate how early he is selected in the draft. 1st Round

Alec Ogletree/LB/Georgia: Ogletree is more polished compared to Jones and a true three down linebacker. The junior is a terrific athlete who quickly moves sideline-to-sideline defending the run or covering the pass. Ogletree's ability to play several linebacker spots only enhances his next level value. 1st Round

Johnathan Jenkins/DT/Georgia: Jenkins, recently declared academically ineligible for the Capital One Bowl, is a massive space eater on the inside. He's impossible to move off the point of attack and flashes the ability to make plays behind the line of scrimmage or outside the box. Scouts question Jenkins intensity on the field and recent academic issues will result in further red flags being raised. 1st Round

Shawn Williams/S/Georgia: Williams has been a productive two year starter for Georgia and offers a nice combination of athleticism and football smarts. He's well liked in the scouting community as Williams rarely makes mental errors and consistently produces on game day. He offers starting possibilities for a two-deep zone system in the NFL. 2nd Round

Daimion Stafford/S/Nebraska: Stafford made an immediate impact at Nebraska after arriving from Chaffey College in 2011. He's a consistent safety with the size and speed to be a three down defender at the next level. Stafford has been a solid run defender for the Cornhuskers but needs to just step up his game in pass coverage. 4th Round

Rose Bowl: Stanford vs Wisconsin

Zach Ertz/TE/Stanford: Ertz was Stanford's number two tight end in 2011, playing behind Coly Fleener, the 33rd pick in last April's draft. Once he took hold of the starting job this season Ertz proved to be a more complete tight end compared to his former teammate. He's a dominant blocker everywhere on the field and at the same time a natural pass catcher who makes plays in the secondary. The junior will be the first tight end selected if he enters April's draft. 1st Round

Montee Ball/RB/Wisconsin: Ball opted to return to Wisconsin for his senior year despite receiving first round consideration for the 2011 draft. His game last season was inconsistent as Ball played like an all-world running back at times yet also looked rather ordinary on a number of occasions. He offers the skill and ability to be a feature ball carrier at the next level if he consistently plays at a high level. 2nd Round

Stepfan Taylor/RB/Stanford: Taylor, unlike Ball, exceeded expectations and moves towards the draft with rising stock. He's a compact ball carrier with the strength to grind it out on the inside as well as the quickness to make defenders miss. Taylor also does the little things extremely well and is highly considered in scouting circles. 2nd Round

Travis Frederick/OL/Wisconsin: Frederick settled down after a shaky start to the season and showed his dominance as the year closed out. He's a strong, mauling lineman with the ability to control defenders on the line of scrimmage or annihilate linebackers on the move. Frederick's ability to line up at guard or center makes him even more attractive to franchises around the league. 2nd/3rd Round

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Northern Illinois

Bjoern Werner/DE/Florida State: Werner was a menacing pass rusher the past two seasons and a defender who consistently disrupted the oppositions game plan. He plays with great balance, athleticism and offers a versatile game. The junior is best suited to line up in a four man front at the next level and is expected to be a top ten selection in April. 1st Round

Xavier Rhodes/CB/Florida State: Rhodes has shut down opponents since his freshman season with the Seminoles and is a cornerback with terrific size and speed. He covers receivers anywhere on the field and displays an aggressive nature to his game. Rhodes is expected to enter the draft and should compete for a starting job in the NFL come September. 2nd Round

Everett Dawkins/DT/Florida State: The Seminoles have a long history of placing talented defensive tackles into the NFL and Dawkins is the next in line. He beats opponents off the snap of the ball then easily moves around the field, rushing the passer or running down ball handlers in pursuit. He'll be a fine addition to an NFL squad as a three technique lineman. 3rd Round

E.J. Manuel/QB/Florida State: Manuel is a great athlete with an NFL arm but a quarterback prospect who needs a lot of work. He flashes the ability to deliver strikes down the field but all too often throws passes which are way off the mark. He offers incredible potential yet must improve his passing fundamentals before he'll be ready to play at the next level. 3rd/4th Round

Dechane Durante/S/Northern Illinois: The redshirt sophomore is a star in the making in the middle of the Huskies talented secondary. He's a complete defensive back who makes plays in every direction of the field against the run and pass. Slowed by a leg injury six games into the 2012 season, Durante made his way back on the field at seasons end and is expected to be ready for the Orange Bowl. 3rd/4th Round
 
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For a second there, I thought they were saying Werner was a third rounder. :lol:

My eyebrows also raised at the thought of Eric Reid as a 3rd rounder. :eek:

 
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With the QB talent in this draft, smart teams shouldn't be going QB with a top 10 pick. You have to admire what Cincinnati and San Francisco did in the 2011 draft. They grabbed top rated player on their board and then got their QB in round 2. I wonder if teams like KC and the Jags will have the courage/wisdom to make that decision.
Cannot make future decisions based on past results, asking for trouble. Up until Dalton, Kaepernick, and Wilson all of the data swung towards having to get a QB in round 1, usually at the top. Are the last two drafts the anamolies? or the beginning of a trend?
Huh? If you shouldn't make future decisions based on past results then why do drafts that occurred pre-2011 matter at all?
previous drafts only matter in terms of the personnel that you may current have on your roster. A team's current year (2013) draft strategy needs to be based on the talent avialable, a team's picks, and its ability to trade around and get the player's the organization thinks will make it a better football team. Because some team drafted QBs in the 2nd round a couple years ago does not mean, it works in 2013. Each draft is its entity.
What I'm saying is the QB talent in this years draft is more like 2011 QB talent without Cam Newton ie guys like Blaine Gabbert, Locker and Ponder. Teams are probably better off waiting to round 2 or trading back if possible.
 

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