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Overvalued for 2012 (1 Viewer)

W

wiscstlatlmia

Footballguy
QBs

Eli Manning

Matt Ryan

Andy Dalton

RBs

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

Steven Jackson

Maurice Jones Drew

Cedric Benson

Shonn Green

Reggie Bush

WRs

Victor Cruz

Wes Welker

Roddy White

Marques Colston

Jordy Nelson

Mike Williams TB

TE

:shrug:

Jermichael Finley? ...Although I'll probably overrated him myself again ....Sigh

 
I'm not quite seeing how Shonn Greene & Tampa Mike Williams fit w/ the rest??? I own both of those stiffs, & I for one will not value them at all, much less overvalue them in '12...

 
How will anyone overvalue Benson and his lousy 40-60 yards and 1 catch per week is beyond me. Absolutely no upside to this guy- RB 5 to be drafted in round 14 at best.

 
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'Multiple Scores said:
Age concerns will actually make Gore and Turner underrated if anything.
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Underrated a bit perhaps, I have a feeling one or even two out of Sjax,Gore,MJD or Turner completely break down next year. Gore and Turner are most likely IMO. I dont think any of them are going to be worth the risk of where you will be drafting them next year
 
MJD is 26 and looks healthy...I think he has 3-4 solid years left. I'll gladly take him (again) when he slides to the mid-2nd from health concerns.

 
'cubbie5150 said:
I'm not quite seeing how Shonn Greene & Tampa Mike Williams fit w/ the rest??? I own both of those stiffs, & I for one will not value them at all, much less overvalue them in '12...
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For that reason I think both might be undervalued. If people don't value them at all, you can get them as a throw-in.
 
'gump said:
MJD is 26 and looks healthy...I think he has 3-4 solid years left. I'll gladly take him (again) when he slides to the mid-2nd from health concerns.
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Agreed. He was the only player on that team that was ever a threat but he consistently broke big plays. He'll be huge if that offense gets some help next year.
 
MJD is a stud, theres no doubting that...Hes bone on bone though and he takes an absolute pounding. I love him just like I love ADP but 26 is getting up there for most RBs nowadays

 
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About half that list will be undervalued, i dont actuall unserstand how you can put some on the list, seems random

 
'gump said:
MJD is 26 and looks healthy...I think he has 3-4 solid years left. I'll gladly take him (again) when he slides to the mid-2nd from health concerns.
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Agree that MJD should not be on this list. He was very consistent, but didn't put up gaudy numbers or TD totals. In PPR leagues, I think he would have an increase value if 1) JAX would throw to him a bit more (like they did in their few wins) and 2) they get a professional QB to run the offense and threaten to score more than 3x/game.For Welker, if resigned in NE, no reason he doesn't put up another 100 catches. I would guess yardage and TDs could drop, but in PPR, I'd take him.I think Roddy will not be overrated, averaging his early season numbers with his better later season numbers. My guess is he'll be maybe WR6, but still be $$ in PPR. He seemed to be injured before the BYE, and looked like a top 3 WR (in PPR) in second half of the season. To me the biggest overvalue risks are Gronkowski and LeSean McCoy (or any other players with high TD totals). They should be top 5-8, but will likely be drafted as #1's at their respective positions.
 
Just off the top of my head-

QB

Tim Tebow- He puts up top 12(ish) numbers but could get decapitated at any time while running hither and yon, and is really such a terrible player could lose the job at any time.

Flacco- Leapfrogged by Stafford, Newton, Matt Ryan... Why people still see this guy as anything but Alex Smith East is beyond me.

Vick- the Vick as a first rounder experiment is over. Silly Matthew Berry. Way to take huge risks in the first round of a draft.

Cam Newton- Will be sexy and super trendy, but his first year numbers will be hard to repeat, never mind improve upon.

RB

DeMarco Murray- Welcome to the proverbial tip of the "injury prone" iceberg.

Adrian Peterson- Won't be fully recovered until past the 2012 trade deadline.

Michael Turner- higher upside options will be available where you draft this player in major decline.

Mendenhall- at some point during this coming offseason, someone in the Steelers organization will say that the team is going to return to a "ground and pound" philosophy. Don't be fooled.

WR

Andre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore.

Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.

DeSean Jackson- someone in your league still thinks this guy is a WR1.

Vincent Jackson- my perennial whipping boy.

Mike Wallace- Will be drafted as an elite WR1, but his dependence on the big play and more importantly, the emergence of Antonio Brown will cap his upside.

 
'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
Just off the top of my head-QB Tim Tebow- He puts up top 12(ish) numbers but could get decapitated at any time while running hither and yon, and is really such a terrible player could lose the job at any time.Flacco- Leapfrogged by Stafford, Newton, Matt Ryan... Why people still see this guy as anything but Alex Smith East is beyond me.Vick- the Vick as a first rounder experiment is over. Silly Matthew Berry. Way to take huge risks in the first round of a draft. Cam Newton- Will be sexy and super trendy, but his first year numbers will be hard to repeat, never mind improve upon.RBDeMarco Murray- Welcome to the proverbial tip of the "injury prone" iceberg.Adrian Peterson- Won't be fully recovered until past the 2012 trade deadline.Michael Turner- higher upside options will be available where you draft this player in major decline.Mendenhall- at some point during this coming offseason, someone in the Steelers organization will say that the team is going to return to a "ground and pound" philosophy. Don't be fooled.WRAndre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore.Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.DeSean Jackson- someone in your league still thinks this guy is a WR1.Vincent Jackson- my perennial whipping boy.Mike Wallace- Will be drafted as an elite WR1, but his dependence on the big play and more importantly, the emergence of Antonio Brown will cap his upside.
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Solid takes here.
 
'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
Just off the top of my head-QB Tim Tebow- He puts up top 12(ish) numbers but could get decapitated at any time while running hither and yon, and is really such a terrible player could lose the job at any time.Flacco- Leapfrogged by Stafford, Newton, Matt Ryan... Why people still see this guy as anything but Alex Smith East is beyond me.Vick- the Vick as a first rounder experiment is over. Silly Matthew Berry. Way to take huge risks in the first round of a draft. Cam Newton- Will be sexy and super trendy, but his first year numbers will be hard to repeat, never mind improve upon.RBDeMarco Murray- Welcome to the proverbial tip of the "injury prone" iceberg.Adrian Peterson- Won't be fully recovered until past the 2012 trade deadline.Michael Turner- higher upside options will be available where you draft this player in major decline.Mendenhall- at some point during this coming offseason, someone in the Steelers organization will say that the team is going to return to a "ground and pound" philosophy. Don't be fooled.WRAndre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore. Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.DeSean Jackson- someone in your league still thinks this guy is a WR1.Vincent Jackson- my perennial whipping boy.Mike Wallace- Will be drafted as an elite WR1, but his dependence on the big play and more importantly, the emergence of Antonio Brown will cap his upside.
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you will think andre goes near the first turn? nicks will certainly go after those guys you mentioned. could see him slipping to the 4-6th round. great value there.djax will have a volatile adp. id imagine he slips to the 7th in plenty of drafts. worth a gamble there depending on your team.vjax proly goes 3rd round. slight overvalue i would agree, but could still work out.wallace seems to be a good choice since roeth just stares down brown at this point.
 
McCoy is a great back but he had one of the luckiest seasons ever it terms of being set up at the 1 yard line all the time. When you've got some of the best running QBs in history (Vick and Young) and they only have 1 rushing TD and you've got the rest - that's luck. Look back at their games and you'll see a crazy number of times that a pass or another play went at least 20 yards to the 1.

He's still a top RB but these things often even out.

 
'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
Just off the top of my head-QB Tim Tebow- He puts up top 12(ish) numbers but could get decapitated at any time while running hither and yon, and is really such a terrible player could lose the job at any time.Flacco- Leapfrogged by Stafford, Newton, Matt Ryan... Why people still see this guy as anything but Alex Smith East is beyond me.Vick- the Vick as a first rounder experiment is over. Silly Matthew Berry. Way to take huge risks in the first round of a draft. Cam Newton- Will be sexy and super trendy, but his first year numbers will be hard to repeat, never mind improve upon.RBDeMarco Murray- Welcome to the proverbial tip of the "injury prone" iceberg.Adrian Peterson- Won't be fully recovered until past the 2012 trade deadline.Michael Turner- higher upside options will be available where you draft this player in major decline.Mendenhall- at some point during this coming offseason, someone in the Steelers organization will say that the team is going to return to a "ground and pound" philosophy. Don't be fooled.WRAndre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore.Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.DeSean Jackson- someone in your league still thinks this guy is a WR1.Vincent Jackson- my perennial whipping boy.Mike Wallace- Will be drafted as an elite WR1, but his dependence on the big play and more importantly, the emergence of Antonio Brown will cap his upside.
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I agree with most of this. Good post.
 
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'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.
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Roddy has Julio Jones to deal with. Jennings has all the other GB receivers to deal with. You can't argue Nicks is losing touches to an emerging threat then ignore the other guys who have just a big a threat to work around.
 
'gump said:
MJD is 26 and looks healthy...I think he has 3-4 solid years left. I'll gladly take him (again) when he slides to the mid-2nd from health concerns.
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I'll gladly take the under on this. It is possible, but not probable. Historically unlikely.
 
'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
WRAndre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore.
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Gotta love the short memories of fantasy football players...Guy had four seasons in a row of 93.5-98.4 ypg and over 6 rec/gm. This year he played 3 healthy games and had 7 rec and at least 93 yards in each.So yeah, he's got third rounder written all over him. :rolleyes: I agree with a lot of the others, but that one was just bad. Don't be the guy who gets soured on an elite player due to injuries.One player I've recently noticed to be trending towards overvalued is Roddy White. Guy has the most targets in the NFL and he's just WR7. I think his targets drop to about 10 per game next year and he ends up around WR18.
 
Marshawn Lynch - He's playing for a contract this year, and still not too far removed from being benched for Fred Jackson in Buffalo. Beast mode is elite when the switch is turned on, but will it be next season? There are some definite questions with Lynch and the hype alone might propel this guy to the late first round, early second.

 
'butcher boy said:
Marshawn Lynch - He's playing for a contract this year, and still not too far removed from being benched for Fred Jackson in Buffalo. Beast mode is elite when the switch is turned on, but will it be next season? There are some definite questions with Lynch and the hype alone might propel this guy to the late first round, early second.
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As if being outplayed by Fred Jackson proves anything... :rolleyes:
 
'Carolina Hustler said:
'butcher boy said:
Marshawn Lynch - He's playing for a contract this year, and still not too far removed from being benched for Fred Jackson in Buffalo. Beast mode is elite when the switch is turned on, but will it be next season? There are some definite questions with Lynch and the hype alone might propel this guy to the late first round, early second.
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As if being outplayed by Fred Jackson proves anything... :rolleyes:
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FWIW, I recall seeing a breakdown a couple years ago and Lynch played just as well as Fred Jackson in the games they played together. He was given the backseat to Fred because Lynch was suspended for the first three games and Fred blew up. Lynch pretty much wore out his welcome in Buffalo. I think he's on the verge of pulling a Thomas Jones. If he slips to the 2nd round, I'd consider him undervalued.
 
'butcher boy said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
'Lavachebeadsman said:
Victor Cruz. File under "regression to the mean" and "playing over ones head".
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Cruz was a second year player. How do we know what his "mean" is or if he was playing "over ones [his] head"?
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I think its more a matter of there being too many mouths to feed at WR in NY. Also, Eli is coming off a career year that probably wont be repeated.
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This is Eli's third 4000+ yd 27+ season in a row. His turnovers are down this season but he's been putting up very good numbers for several years now.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
'scrumptrulescent said:
Trent Richardson :lol:
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Care to elaborate?
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I knew you'd come through! :lmao: You think FBG went over the top on Ingram. The same is about to happen with Richardson, but probably much worse. His stock in fantasy drafts will probably sky-rocket to 1st round by next September, and he doesn't have a single carry in the NFL yet. You stated in the Richardson thread that you like him over Peterson coming out of college so that means you expect more than 1,600 yards and 13 TD's next year. If there are more who believe that it means Richardson will be a 1st rounder in fantasy drafts. That's a serious gamble and good luck with that.
 
'scrumptrulescent said:
'Multiple Scores said:
'scrumptrulescent said:
Trent Richardson :lol:
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Care to elaborate?
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I knew you'd come through! :lmao: You think FBG went over the top on Ingram. The same is about to happen with Richardson, but probably much worse. His stock in fantasy drafts will probably sky-rocket to 1st round by next September, and he doesn't have a single carry in the NFL yet. You stated in the Richardson thread that you like him over Peterson coming out of college so that means you expect more than 1,600 yards and 13 TD's next year. If there are more who believe that it means Richardson will be a 1st rounder in fantasy drafts. That's a serious gamble and good luck with that.
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I stated I like him more "coming out" of college than Adrian Peterson, slightly at that. I like him more as a prospect but never said I expect him to put up AP numbers in the NFL. I think it's possible but that is not what I said, simply comparing them prior to both of them playing an NFL snap, there is a big difference there. The thing with Ingram which I also explained in the Richardson post was that Ingram was hyped HERE, as in FBG, as in FBG staff/FBG posters. Nowhere else besides here was Ingram touted like this, nobody claimed he'd be a HOFer or the next great thing, it was simply here and here alone. It's different with Richardson, he is highly touted everywhere and I completely see it, I thought Ingram was overhyped on these forums, the rest of the football community wasn't nearly on Ingram like here. Ingram was not thought of nearly as high as Richardson elsewhere and I never, ever like Ingram.
 
'Multiple Scores said:
'scrumptrulescent said:
'Multiple Scores said:
'scrumptrulescent said:
Trent Richardson :lol:
Click to expand...
Care to elaborate?
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I knew you'd come through! :lmao: You think FBG went over the top on Ingram. The same is about to happen with Richardson, but probably much worse. His stock in fantasy drafts will probably sky-rocket to 1st round by next September, and he doesn't have a single carry in the NFL yet. You stated in the Richardson thread that you like him over Peterson coming out of college so that means you expect more than 1,600 yards and 13 TD's next year. If there are more who believe that it means Richardson will be a 1st rounder in fantasy drafts. That's a serious gamble and good luck with that.
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I stated I like him more "coming out" of college than Adrian Peterson, slightly at that. I like him more as a prospect but never said I expect him to put up AP numbers in the NFL. I think it's possible but that is not what I said, simply comparing them prior to both of them playing an NFL snap, there is a big difference there. The thing with Ingram which I also explained in the Richardson post was that Ingram was hyped HERE, as in FBG, as in FBG staff/FBG posters. Nowhere else besides here was Ingram touted like this, nobody claimed he'd be a HOFer or the next great thing, it was simply here and here alone. It's different with Richardson, he is highly touted everywhere and I completely see it, I thought Ingram was overhyped on these forums, the rest of the football community wasn't nearly on Ingram like here. Ingram was not thought of nearly as high as Richardson elsewhere and I never, ever like Ingram.
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That's fine for you. Meanwhile this is a 2012 overvalued thread and if the hype train pushes your guy into the 1st, there's a very good chance I'm right.
 
'todisco1 said:
'butcher boy said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
'Lavachebeadsman said:
Victor Cruz. File under "regression to the mean" and "playing over ones head".
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Cruz was a second year player. How do we know what his "mean" is or if he was playing "over ones [his] head"?
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I think its more a matter of there being too many mouths to feed at WR in NY. Also, Eli is coming off a career year that probably wont be repeated.
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This is Eli's third 4000+ yd 27+ season in a row. His turnovers are down this season but he's been putting up very good numbers for several years now.
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His attempt and yardage numbers this year are going to end significantly higher than the last few years averages. The difference between this season and Eli's mean is enough to downgrade Cruz from where he'll be drafted next year, IMO. The continued presence of Nicks is also a factor. These are 2 guys who cant decide between themselves who is the #1 WR on the team. Cruz (and Nicks as well) is going to be drafted way too early for a guy with these question marks.
 
'todisco1 said:
'butcher boy said:
'Dr. Octopus said:
'Lavachebeadsman said:
Victor Cruz. File under "regression to the mean" and "playing over ones head".
Click to expand...
Cruz was a second year player. How do we know what his "mean" is or if he was playing "over ones [his] head"?
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I think its more a matter of there being too many mouths to feed at WR in NY. Also, Eli is coming off a career year that probably wont be repeated.
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This is Eli's third 4000+ yd 27+ season in a row. His turnovers are down this season but he's been putting up very good numbers for several years now.
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Agreed. As much as I'm not a fan of Eli he does produce (erratically), Cruz has taken over Steve Smith's "role" but with more YAC and as more of a deep threat than Smith ever was. This year could certainly be a fluke for Cruz but he looks like the real deal to me. If the Giants let Manningham go in the off-season, I expect them to re-sign Steve Smith as their #3 WR with Barden as the #4. What happens if both Cruz and Smith get on the field together is anyone's guess.
 
Cam Newton - he'll be a first rounder next year in probably every scoring system imaginable, but you can't expect that many rushing touchdowns from a quarterback again. He'll likely still be very productive, both passing and running, but maybe not as productive as those drafting him very, very early will be hoping for. And I am someone who owes a lot to Cam for helping me to a championship this year, so I am not someone hating on him because I am pissed that I didn't benefit as a result of his rookie season.

 
'Ghost Rider said:
Cam Newton - he'll be a first rounder next year in probably every scoring system imaginable, but you can't expect that many rushing touchdowns from a quarterback again. He'll likely still be very productive, both passing and running, but maybe not as productive as those drafting him very, very early will be hoping for. And I am someone who owes a lot to Cam for helping me to a championship this year, so I am not someone hating on him because I am pissed that I didn't benefit as a result of his rookie season.
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Agree 100%. The best running QBs in NFL history haven't been able to sustain more than an average of about 5 - 7 rushing TDs / year over a multi-year period.I wonder if QBs in general might be pretty overvalued after the ridiculous years the elite ones are putting up. Manning and Brady both regressed to their historical means after the 50 TD years, I'm guessing Rodgers / Newton will be 1st round mistakes in 2012.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'Ghost Rider said:
Cam Newton - he'll be a first rounder next year in probably every scoring system imaginable, but you can't expect that many rushing touchdowns from a quarterback again. He'll likely still be very productive, both passing and running, but maybe not as productive as those drafting him very, very early will be hoping for. And I am someone who owes a lot to Cam for helping me to a championship this year, so I am not someone hating on him because I am pissed that I didn't benefit as a result of his rookie season.
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Agree 100%. The best running QBs in NFL history haven't been able to sustain more than an average of about 5 - 7 rushing TDs / year over a multi-year period.I wonder if QBs in general might be pretty overvalued after the ridiculous years the elite ones are putting up. Manning and Brady both regressed to their historical means after the 50 TD years, I'm guessing Rodgers / Newton will be 1st round mistakes in 2012.
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1st round may be early for Cam but while his rushing TD's should go down, it's just as likely that his passing TD's will go up. Don't forget or discount the amount of valuable time Cam missed out on because of the lockout.
 
Agree, and I love Cam. Just pointing out that it's really rare for any QB to provide top-10 overall value in most scoring systems.

 
can rookies count? Trent Richardson is already being compared to Adrian Peterson. By all means take him, esp for a one year league. Now if you are in a dynasty, thats another story. Rookie RBs that carry that hype are usually drafted by awful teams and dont get their real numbers until said team builds an OLine. Peterson was rare IMO. As for Colston, lets see where he goes first. Maybe he is a clear cut #1 option on a decent team.

 
'wiscstlatlmia said:
QBs

Eli Manning

Matt Ryan

Andy Dalton

RBs

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

Steven Jackson

Maurice Jones Drew

Cedric Benson

Shonn Green

Reggie Bush

WRs

Victor Cruz

Wes Welker

Roddy White

Marques Colston

Jordy Nelson

Mike Williams TB

TE

:shrug:

Jermichael Finley? ...Although I'll probably overrated him myself again ....Sigh
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how is Eli overrated/overvalued for 2012??? He and 3 others ( Brees, Brady, Rodgers) set records this season for throwing for more yards thru first 14 games than any other QB's in history...he has a QB rating of 90+ every year, 2011: 26 tds, 16 ints, 4587 yards and has

an outside shot at breaking Marino's record if he throws for 500+ yards..I know he won't get there, but he's close..

not factoring in this weekend's game v. Dallas and how many more Tds he might toss, right now, at 26 TDs, he has avg'd 28 Tds per season each of past 3 years..he's already thrown for 585 MORE yards than last year, with probably another 300+ yard game to come v. Dallas..

Benson isn't overrated, he is what we thought he was - a decent #3 RB..or a lousy low end #2..but if you drafted him to be your #1 guy, that's on you..

How is Roddy White overrated?! has a chance to lead the league in targets, he's in top 3 in recs.Julio makes White better, not worse..

I'll add:

Mark Ingram or any Saints RB's...they can't stay healthy,and when they do play,they cancel each other out.

A. Luck - we've seen this movie before - a 'can't miss' prospect, misses..

C. Johnson - from weeks' 9-13, he avg'd a lousy 5-69 and scored one TD during that span..from a #1 WR? that kind of inconsistency killed many a fantasy team this season.

V. Jackson

S. Holmes

Gronkowski - will still be a top TE but nowhere near the record setter he was this season..

 
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'CompetitiveEdgeFootball said:
Just off the top of my head-QB Tim Tebow- He puts up top 12(ish) numbers but could get decapitated at any time while running hither and yon, and is really such a terrible player could lose the job at any time.Flacco- Leapfrogged by Stafford, Newton, Matt Ryan... Why people still see this guy as anything but Alex Smith East is beyond me.Vick- the Vick as a first rounder experiment is over. Silly Matthew Berry. Way to take huge risks in the first round of a draft. Cam Newton- Will be sexy and super trendy, but his first year numbers will be hard to repeat, never mind improve upon.RBDeMarco Murray- Welcome to the proverbial tip of the "injury prone" iceberg.Adrian Peterson- Won't be fully recovered until past the 2012 trade deadline.Michael Turner- higher upside options will be available where you draft this player in major decline.Mendenhall- at some point during this coming offseason, someone in the Steelers organization will say that the team is going to return to a "ground and pound" philosophy. Don't be fooled.WRAndre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore.Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.DeSean Jackson- someone in your league still thinks this guy is a WR1.Vincent Jackson- my perennial whipping boy.Mike Wallace- Will be drafted as an elite WR1, but his dependence on the big play and more importantly, the emergence of Antonio Brown will cap his upside.
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Good post. I will commentDon't think Tebow will be that overvalued, unless you play in a guppie type league. Most sharks understand that Tebow will likely not be able to take that type of punishment on a consistent basis.....see Michael Vick. While he's quite a ways away from being a good NFL QB, I doubt that he will get pulled next year. But that risk is not minimal, so I think these risks will make Tebow slide a round or two in very competitive leagues.Agree 100% on Flacco. He's not a bad NFL QB, but he's not a good fantasy QB. Too inconsistent and BAL offense goes through Ray Rice.Disagree on Vick. He's not a first rounder in 2012.....he's more like a 3rd or even 4th rounder next year, and that's a spot where gambling on Vick could pay big dividends.Somewhat agree on Newton. Rushing TDs will be very hard to duplicate and Newton will have to cut down on the INTs to make him worth a first rounder.Agree 100% on all the RB selections.Agree with AJ. Can't stay healthy and Foster caps his upside.Somewhat disagree with Nicks. He was injured a lot this year, but Eli has come into his own, and Cruz only helps Nicks avoid getting double teamed. Eli should continue to throw for 4000+ yards, and Nicks IMO is still an elite talent.I have always thought Desean Jackson was overrated.....I guess he still is, but not as much as the past. Can't count on that guy. He would have to drop into the middle rounds for me to consider him.Agree 100% on VJax.....just too inconsistent to rely on him as a WR1 or high WR2.Somewhat agree on Wallace. I think Wallace and Brown will be 1a 1b next year, but PIT is a passing team and I think Wallace will still post good numbers. Would rather have Wallace as my WR2, so I think he will be slightly overrated.
 
'Grahamburn said:
Any RB taken in the first round after the top 3.
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Pretty much agree with this. Although I think the number is 4. Rice, McCoy, MJD and Foster. I'm pretty confident that all four of them will finish as RB1s next year. The other 8 in 2011 were Lynch, ADP, Mathews, Turner, Bush, Bush, Gore and Jackson. I'd be surprised if more than one of them repeats, and choosing the rest is a dicey proposition.
 
'Dr. Awesome said:
'Tanner9919 said:
How is Roddy White overrated?! has a chance to lead the league in targets, he's in top 3 in recs.Julio makes White better, not worse..
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Better in real life perhaps but Julio will steal targets. Fewer targets are not good for our fantasy receivers.
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This. How are you going to draft a guy who led the league in targets last year and didn't come close to leading the league in fantasy points? You basically need him to be the most highly targeted player in 2012 just to make par with that draft pick. Terrible bet if you ask me. Especially considering Julio Jones is likely to get more targets as a 2nd year player than a rookie.
 
'Kitrick Taylor said:
'Grahamburn said:
Any RB taken in the first round after the top 3.
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Pretty much agree with this. Although I think the number is 4. Rice, McCoy, MJD and Foster. I'm pretty confident that all four of them will finish as RB1s next year. The other 8 in 2011 were Lynch, ADP, Mathews, Turner, Bush, Bush, Gore and Jackson. I'd be surprised if more than one of them repeats, and choosing the rest is a dicey proposition.
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My point exactly. I'd take Calvin at 4 before MJD though, but I understand your point that he should probably be a first round pick. MJD's season is a bit of an anomaly to me. That being said, I'm sure drafters will still find a reason to slot 7-8 RBs in the first round.This league and the rules therein are so slanted toward passing now. The elite QBs and WRs are way more important than the shot in the dark RB. Also, as this season has shown, even the most studly of RB can be bitten by the injury bug. The risk of injury at that position is exponentially higher than that of a WR or QB.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'Ghost Rider said:
Cam Newton - he'll be a first rounder next year in probably every scoring system imaginable, but you can't expect that many rushing touchdowns from a quarterback again. He'll likely still be very productive, both passing and running, but maybe not as productive as those drafting him very, very early will be hoping for. And I am someone who owes a lot to Cam for helping me to a championship this year, so I am not someone hating on him because I am pissed that I didn't benefit as a result of his rookie season.
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Agree 100%. The best running QBs in NFL history haven't been able to sustain more than an average of about 5 - 7 rushing TDs / year over a multi-year period.I wonder if QBs in general might be pretty overvalued after the ridiculous years the elite ones are putting up. Manning and Brady both regressed to their historical means after the 50 TD years, I'm guessing Rodgers / Newton will be 1st round mistakes in 2012.
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its going to be pick your poison with qbs or rbs with question marks.all first rounds will looks something like thismccoyfosterricerodgersmjdfortecalvinand then what? go with cam, brees, brady, vick? decently safe picks.the rest of the late round options have a ton of risk. injured guys like adp, charles, dmac and andre johnson, even murray.possibly one yr wonders like fjax and lynch and again murray.aging guys whos upside is decent but are a big risk to fall off like gore and turner and even sjax (albeit a bit later.)mathews has certainly shown ability to produce huge numbers but gets dinged and risks an offensive overhaul with the coaching change.wtf to do about chris johnson?me, eh, just give me the qbs, ill be happy to gamble on helu, wells, rookies and whichever other rbs slip to later rounds. similar upside, similar risk, cheaper price.
 
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