33 replies to this topic

[Jene Bramel]

2011 thread can be found here.

Current situation in the codebox below. We'll update and speculate whenever any major news hits.

BASE DEFENSE 

AFC East
BUF	Chan Gailey/DAVE WANNSTEDT           4-3
MIA	JOE PHILBIN/KEVIN COYLE              ???? (? hybrid)
NE	Bill Belichick/Matt Patricia         Multiple
NYJ	Rex Ryan/Mike Pettine                Multiple

AFC North
BAL	John Harbaugh/DEAN PEES              Multiple
CIN	Marvin Lewis/Mike Zimmer             4-3	
CLE	Pat Shurmur/Dick Jauron              4-3
PIT	Mike Tomlin/Dick LeBeau              3-4

AFC South
HOU	Gary Kubiak/Wade Phillips            3-4
IND	CHUCK PAGANO/GREG MANUSKY            Multiple
JAX	MIKE MULARKEY/Mel Tucker             4-3
TEN	Mike Munchak/Jerry Gray              4-3

AFC West
DEN	John Fox/JACK DEL RIO                4-3
KC	ROMEO CRENNEL/CRENNEL                3-4
OAK	DENNIS ALLEN/JASON TARVER            Multiple
SD      Norv Turner/JOHN PAGANO              3-4

NFC East
DAL	Jason Garrett/Rob Ryan               3-4
NYG	Tom Coughlin/Perry Fewell            4-3
PHI	Andy Reid/Juan Castillo              4-3
WAS	Mike Shanahan/Jim Haslett            3-4

NFC North
CHI	Lovie Smith/Rod Marinelli            4-3
DET	Jim Schwartz/Gunther Cunningham      4-3
GB	Mike McCarthy/Dom Capers             3-4
MIN	Leslie Frazier/ALAN WILLIAMS         4-3

NFC South
ATL	Mike Smith/MIKE NOLAN                4-3 (hybrid?)
CAR	Ron Rivera/Sean McDermott            4-3
NO	Sean Payton/STEVE SPAGNUOLO          4-3 
TAM	GREG SCHIANO/BILL SHERIDAN           4-3

NFC West
ARI	Ken Whisenhunt/Ray Horton            3-4
STL	JEFF FISHER/GREGG WILLIAMS           4-3 (multiple?) 
SF	Jim Harbaugh/Vic Fangio              3-4
SEA	Pete Carroll/Gus Bradley             4-3

**Changes in CAPS

[Jene Bramel]

It should prove to be a busy non-playing season yet again this winter, though thankfully one without six months of lockout talk.

Both the Bucs and Rams have fired their head coaches today, leaving five head coaching spots open. There are a few other very warm head coach and defensive coordinator seats around the league, though, and very likely more shuffling to come. There are also a couple of playbooks (Buffalo, New England, Carolina) that could change significantly before next August.

It should be fun to sift through the changes this month.

For now, I've deleted some of the details and notations (i.e. 1-gap vs 2-gap 3-4, Tampa-2 notations) as most teams continue to trend further and further away from a true "base" defense. There are certainly still some basic philosophical ideas notable for each defense and the information in this thread will still be vital to projecting NFL and fantasy value, but snap count has arguably passed generic scheme notation as the primary driver of statistical potential.

[MindCrime]

Always a top notch offseason thread, looking forward to see how things shake out.

[Jene Bramel]

From the past 48 hours:

Bills fire George Edwards and promote Dave Wannstedt.
To my knowledge, the Bills were the first team that Wannstedt has been associated with to use a 3-4 front as part of their base defensive packages. Wannstedt came into the league under Jimmy Johnson and used a similar 4-3 front in Chicago. The Bills would have some work to do at DE to make an attacking, speed over size, relatively rare blitzing 4-3 to work, but Wannstedt has two strong DTs and a couple of linebackers in Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard that could work well. If we hear that Sheppard is in line to take over at MLB in a Wannstedt coached 4-3 and will be entrusted with nickel snaps, it's very good news for his short term upside.

Raiders fire Chuck Bresnahan.
Ordinarily, this wouldn't be a major story. Aside from Rob Ryan's brief 3-4 fling in the early 2000s, Al Davis had kept his team in a 4-3, Cover-1 look with some nickel variation for years. With Davis gone and Hue Jackson running the show, there could be a significant shift in defensive philosophy.

Chargers fire Greg Manusky
This smells like a personality conflict, as the Chargers don't seem likely to change their defensive blueprint with long time SD assistant, John Pagano, rumored to be the likely replacement.

[The Man With No Name]

From the past 48 hours:

Chargers fire Greg Manusky
This smells like a personality conflict, as the Chargers don't seem likely to change their defensive blueprint with long time SD assistant, John Pagano, rumored to be the likely replacement.

Hopefully Pagano or whomever they hire likes Butler as an every down player.

[sihaokills]

Chargers need those big D Lineman. They have the linebackers to do the job but Liuget was not the answer.... PHIL Taylor would have been great

[Kool-Aid Larry]

From the past 48 hours:

Bills fire George Edwards and promote Dave Wannstedt.
To my knowledge, the Bills were the first team that Wannstedt has been associated with to use a 3-4 front as part of their base defensive packages. Wannstedt came into the league under Jimmy Johnson and used a similar 4-3 front in Chicago. The Bills would have some work to do at DE to make an attacking, speed over size, relatively rare blitzing 4-3 to work, but Wannstedt has two strong DTs and a couple of linebackers in Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard that could work well. If we hear that Sheppard is in line to take over at MLB in a Wannstedt coached 4-3 and will be entrusted with nickel snaps, it's very good news for his short term upside.

I don't know how they finished up, but weren't the bills running a 4-3 under early in the year?

[Ryan Sitzmann]

Looks like Brian VanGorder is leaving the Falcons for the DC position at Auburn.

http://www.washingto...Z3lP_story.html

[Jene Bramel]

Romeo Crennel retained by the Chiefs

No real surprise here and it's unlikely that Crennel will hire a DC that will change Kansas City's defensive philosophy significantly. There are some indications that he'll not fill the DC position at all.

Brian VanGorder leaves Atlanta

This was a surprising development yesterday, as VanGorder decided to take the DC position at Auburn. This was mostly Mike Smith's defense, however, so we'll see if he's willing to go in a different direction with his next hire. I suspect things will mostly remain status quo here, too.

-------------

Mike Zimmer, Wade Phillips and Ray Horton are all interviewing for head coaching positions. Realistically, Zimmer is the only potential hire of the three, but we'll see what develops.

[Jene Bramel]

From the past 48 hours:

Bills fire George Edwards and promote Dave Wannstedt.
To my knowledge, the Bills were the first team that Wannstedt has been associated with to use a 3-4 front as part of their base defensive packages. Wannstedt came into the league under Jimmy Johnson and used a similar 4-3 front in Chicago. The Bills would have some work to do at DE to make an attacking, speed over size, relatively rare blitzing 4-3 to work, but Wannstedt has two strong DTs and a couple of linebackers in Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard that could work well. If we hear that Sheppard is in line to take over at MLB in a Wannstedt coached 4-3 and will be entrusted with nickel snaps, it's very good news for his short term upside.

I don't know how they finished up, but weren't the bills running a 4-3 under early in the year?

Yes, the Bills were often more 4-3 than not this season, but I think the 3-4 / hybrid experiment that Buddy Nix seems to continue to have interest in will be set aside now.

[Dr. Awesome]

Where do you find snap counts for players?

[Jene Bramel]

Where do you find snap counts for players?

I estimate many myself while watching games on Monday/Tuesday and cross-check them with Pro Football Focus later in the week.

[Jene Bramel]

Jacksonville hires Mike Mularkey as head coach
Mularkey has long been an offensive-minded coach and is trying to keep Mel Tucker (who has interviewed to become Minnesota's DC) around. Tucker has coached multiple fronts, including the 3-4 during his days in Cleveland under Eric Mangini, but had yet to deviate much from the Jack Del Rio 4-3 blueprint.

San Diego promotes John Pagano to defensive coordinator
This happened last week and was expected. Aside from a handful of years in Indianapolis years ago, Pagano has been predominantly a 3-4 coach, with experience under Jim Haslett and Wade Phillips before the more recent versions of the SD 3-4. It's possible that his philosophy will be more aggressive than those Charger teams, but I wouldn't expect much to change. Pagano had been the LB coach and would have been intimately involved in the decision-making process and development of Donald Butler and, possibly, reaching for Jonas Mouton last year.

Oakland reportedly leaning toward Winston Moss as HC after hiring Reggie McKenzie as GM
Both McKenzie and Moss are from Green Bay and McKenzie strongly suggested that he'd stick with what he was familiar with, specifically a 3-4 front. Whether it's similar to the Dom Capers mix of zone blitz concepts or another variation remains to be seen. Kamerion Wimbley struggled a bit in his last 3-4, but was a much more consistent pass rusher in Oakland. Rolando McClain and Aaron Curry would be reasonable fits inside (Curry never fulfilled his pass rushing promise in Seattle, but could also be seen as a transitional LOLB in a pinch). A 3-4 front is likely not good news for Matt Shaughnessy and would likely change Richard Seymour's positional designation back to DE. This could be the most interesting scheme switch this offseason.

Atlanta is rumored to be strongly considering Jack Del Rio as DC
No major surprise here. Mike Smith was Jacksonville's DC for years under Del Rio and both men share similar defensive philosophies. I wouldn't expect any major changes in scheme or direction if Del Rio is hired.

Minnesota is actively looking for a new DC
Fred Pagac has yet to be officially sent packing, but the Vikings are interviewing candidates to replace him. Raheem Morris, who has since gone to Washington to coach DBs under Jim Haslett -- that seems like an odd marriage of backgrounds, but Haslett's schemes use a fair amount of Cover-2 behind the aggressive front seven, Mike Singletary and Steve Spagnuolo have all been rumored as candidates.

The Miami, St. Louis and Indianapolis jobs are still up in the air. Former stud DCs who struggled as head coaches like Spagnuolo and Mike Nolan remain available as high profile DC candidates. Still plenty of chips to fall around the league.

[r0llin_game]

Need to edit who the Jags hired!

[Jene Bramel]

Need to edit who the Jags hired!

I bet Jaguars fans could get behind McCarthy more easily than Mularkey.

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Gregg Williams has agreed to be the defensive coordinator in St. Louis, league sources told NFL Network's Jason La Canfora.

[Jene Bramel]

St. Louis hires Jeff Fisher as head coach. Gregg Williams joins him from New Orleans

Williams has run a little of everything in the past few years, using some Tampa-2 concepts in Washington and some 3-4 in New Orleans in addition to his usual base 4-3/46 inspired aggressive multiple front leanings. The front seven personnel would seem to lend themselves toward the 4-3 pages of Williams' playbook, but it'll be interesting to hear what the team has to say.

The loss of Williams could shift a number of roles in New Orleans, where Jonathan Vilma has struggled inside, Will Smith has been inconsistent on the line and Roman Harper saw more blitz opportunities and in the box safety snaps than any other strong safety in the league.

Minnesota fires Fred Pagac

Nothing to see here. Expect Leslie Frazier to hire someone who shares his seemingly odd-couple mix of aggression and Tampa-2 zone coverage philosophies.

[ffchamp1]

St. Louis hires Jeff Fisher as head coach. Gregg Williams joins him from New Orleans

Williams has run a little of everything in the past few years, using some Tampa-2 concepts in Washington and some 3-4 in New Orleans in addition to his usual base 4-3/46 inspired aggressive multiple front leanings. The front seven personnel would seem to lend themselves toward the 4-3 pages of Williams' playbook, but it'll be interesting to hear what the team has to say.

The loss of Williams could shift a number of roles in New Orleans, where Jonathan Vilma has struggled inside, Will Smith has been inconsistent on the line and Roman Harper saw more blitz opportunities and in the box safety snaps than any other strong safety in the league.

Minnesota fires Fred Pagac

Nothing to see here. Expect Leslie Frazier to hire someone who shares his seemingly odd-couple mix of aggression and Tampa-2 zone coverage philosophies.

Mike Nolan and his 3-4 scheme goes to ATL

What does this mean for Curtis Lofton?

[Jene Bramel]

Falcons hire Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator

Nolan and Mike Smith coached together in Baltimore, but have somewhat divergent defensive philosophies. Smith (and Jack Del Rio) favored a solid, execution-based 4-3 front since those days, with Nolan favoring the 1-gap 3-4 he learned under Wade Phillips. Nolan has shown that he's willing to tailor his scheme to his personnel, using four DL in New York, Washington and San Francisco at times, but he usually comes back to the 3-4. John Abraham, Kroy Biermann and Curtis Lofton are free agents, so the personnel could turn over quickly. Lofton and Weatherspoon would fit Nolan's 3-4 well, but there'd need to be change on the edge to make it successful.

This situation, as well as potential ripples in Buffalo, Oakland, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, might make for an interesting first phase of the offseason after all.

ETA: Per @AJCFalcons Coach Smith has noted that the Falcons have drafted for his 4-3. They will blend things together. Looking for a hybrid 4-3.


Colts fire Jim Caldwell

Local sentiment had seemed to shift toward Caldwell staying in Indianapolis, so this is something of a surprise. Tend to doubt that the Colts are ready to make major changes to their defensive philosophy, but the organization is ripe for a rebuild and overhaul. Robert Mathis a free agent, Gary Brackett aging and due big money, Pat Angerer possibly ready to take over as the anchor run defender...

[msommer]

linky
Jason LaCanfora, Nfl.com:
The Minnesota Vikings are expected to offer the defensive coordinator position to Indianapolis Colts defensive backs coach Alan Williams, according to a league source.

Williams had a strong interview with Minnesota this week, according to the source.

Though the team has been interviewing candidates for the position for some time, Fred Pagac had officially been the team's defensive coordinator until last week, when he was removed from that role.

The Vikings received permission from the Colts to speak with Williams on Monday, and had been expected to interview him Tuesday.

Williams has been with the Colts for 10 seasons. He was an assistant in Tampa Bay for the 2001 season after being on the staff at William & Mary from 1996 to 2000.

According to the Chicago Tribune, the Vikings had wanted to interview Bears defensive backs coach Jon Hoke but were denied permission.

Edited by msommer, 18 January 2012 - 12:30 PM.

[Ryan Sitzmann]

Looks like Steve Spagnualo will be taking over the DC spot in New Orleans.

http://espn.go.com/n...-saints-defense

[saintfool]

Looks like Steve Spagnualo will be taking over the DC spot in New Orleans.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7480923/sources-steve-spagnuolo-agrees-coach-new-orleans-saints-defense

good hire, i think. he's going to want a lot more out of that front four though. they were harassing opposing QBs but that is not enough. you want sacks in addition to hurried throws.

[Jene Bramel]

Playing catch up after a week at the Senior Bowl...

Indianapolis hires Chuck Pagano, Baltimore elevates Dean Pees to DC
It's a near certainty now, after the hiring of hybrid defense minded Pagano and the public tiffs between Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay, that the Colts are headed in an entirely new direction. With Pagano, the days of the Tampa-2 in Indianapolis are probably history. I don't think Pagano moves the defense to a base 3-4 since his pass rushers and linebackers aren't a great fit, but he'll likely bring some of the hybrid 4-3 concepts he's used in Baltimore to the Colts' defense. The fantasy value of guys like Robert Mathis (free agent) and Pat Angerer (and Freeney, Brackett and the rest) aren't necessarily any clearer after the hiring. Pagano said he wants to evaluate the film. Hopefully, we'll hear more at the combine press conference or the post-draft press conferences. Otherwise, we won't get our first look until mini-camp.

Miami hires Joe Philbin, likely to hire Kevin Coyle as DC, with strong indications they'll move to a 4-3
Philbin is an offensive-minded head coach, but the likely hiring of Coyle (who coached DBs in a 4-3 for over a decade in Cincinnati) and some ambiguity about what the future scheme may be from GM Gene Ireland have fueled speculation that the Dolphins will use a 4-3 base defense next year. There's a lot of versatility in their front seven personnel, so it's not likely to be a painful switch should it happen. Cameron Wake could probably handle either defensive end position effectively and Jared Odrick could be a very good defensive tackle. The linebacker group isn't so clear. Depending on quick and aggressive Coyle wants to be, Kevin Burnett and Karlos Dansby could align in any of the three LB spots. Koa Misi might be a good fit at SLB, but it's possible that Burnett and Dansby both play outside and the Dolphins look for another middle backer.

Oakland hires former Denver DC Dennis Allen as head coach, Broncos likely to replace him with Jack Del Rio or Richard Smith
The hiring of Dennis Allen will quell some of the talk about the Raiders moving to a 3-4 after former GB GM Reggie McKenzie flirting with some of the Packers' defensive coaches as head coaching candidates. Allen had plenty of experience with a multiple front defense in New Orleans under Gregg Williams and was in Atlanta with Wade Phillips early in his coaching career. His choice of DC will give more indication of his likely direction.

Allen wasn't as hybrid as we expected under John Fox last year, but he moved players around well. With JDR and Smith his likely replacements, we're likely to see a relatively less aggressive, execution over confusion scheme in Denver next year.

Tampa Bay hires Greg Schiano as head coach
Schiano has been a 4-3 coach, from Penn State to Miami to Rutgers (with a stop in Chicago along the way). He's primarily a coverage based coach, but gets more aggressive on third downs. His defensive coordinator choice should be telling as well.

Mike Zimmer and Juan Castillo are staying put
Zimmer got a long look as a head coaching candidate, especially in Tampa Bay, but stays with Cincinnati. Juan Castillo looks likely to survive the offseason after Steve Spagnoulo and the other big name defensive minds landed elsewhere.

[Tick]

Thanks for the updates, Jene. Another crazy offseason with scheme changes flipping value everywhere.

[Jene Bramel]

Miami officially hires Kevin Coyle as DC
It's still not clear whether the Dolphins are looking to move to a 4-3 base front, but the hiring of Coyle, who's coached under a number of 4-3 head coaches and coordinators, suggests a transition to a hybrid front at minimum.

Denver hires Jack Del Rio as DC
The Del Rio hire makes sense. He and John Fox are comfortable with a execution-style 4-3, the Jaguars are already paying him a HC salary making him a relatively cheap hire and Richard Smith could remain on staff as LB coach. I doubt we'll see many changes from last season, other than a somewhat less aggressive front seven.

Buffalo confirms that they'll use a 4-3 base defensive front
No surprise here. Chan Gailey did confirm that Kelvin Sheppard is expected to play MLB.

Indianapolis pursues Keith Butler as DC, but Pittsburgh re-signs him as LB coach
Butler didn't join the Colts, but his pursuit is another indication that Chuck Pagano will pursue a hybrid front with plenty of 3-4 concepts and that there's little chance of a 4-3 base with Tampa-2 coverage and front seven concepts in Indy this year.

Dennis Allen reportedly considering Ed Donatell and Bill Johnson as DC
Allen said during his press conference yesterday that he wants the defense to be multiple. The Broncos didn't exactly get there last year, but the Raiders have more front seven pieces to do so. Whether and how many of those 3-4 looks come on base downs or in subpackage situations remains to be seen. Donatell is currently in SF as the DB coach, Bill Johnson in NO as the DL coach. Both have experience with 3-4 concepts. The Broncos' Richard Smith was under consideration, but Denver denied permission to interview.

Greg Schiano has interest in Butch Davis as his DC
Davis is a former Jimmy Johnson coach and would presumably bring many of his "speed over size" aggressive 4-3 concepts that are often statistically favorable to the MLB to Tampa.

[Kool-Aid Larry]

should we expect a trainwreck in indy, or is there any confidence that they can transform into an effective 3-4 in one year?

also, I understand they've said they want to sign mathis?
I understand he could have a role in a hybrid defense, but at the money they'd have to pay him?

Edited by Kool-Aid Larry, 03 February 2012 - 08:45 PM.

[Jene Bramel]

Oakland hires Jason Tarver as defensive coordinator
Tarver spent time working on 3-4 and multiple front defenses under Mike Nolan and Greg Manusky in San Francisco before co-coordinating a similar scheme in Stanford. Looks like his philosophy and experience will work nicely alongside Dennis Allen's preferred hybrid style of defense. Tarver is a young guy without much coordinating experience, however, so expect this defense to lean wherever Allen wants it to go. Very interested to see how Rolando McClain develops (should be a better fit for Allen than Vilma was in NO) and how Tyvon Branch (who would fit nicely in Roman Harper's big play role) is used.

[Ryan Sitzmann]

Just as an FYI, the Colts lost out on Keith Butler and actually ended up hiring Greg Manusky as their DC instead. This hiring further suggests to me that the Colts will be installing a 3-4 system next season.

[Jene Bramel]

Just as an FYI, the Colts lost out on Keith Butler and actually ended up hiring Greg Manusky as their DC instead. This hiring further suggests to me that the Colts will be installing a 3-4 system next season.

Oops. Forgot to update that one. Thanks for the correction.

[Ryan Sitzmann]

Per Rotoworld:

"The Ohio State Lantern reports that the Buccaneers have hired ex-Dolphins LBs coach Bill Sheridan as defensive coordinator."

Full article link below:
http://www.thelanter...36#.Tz7Xj3ozKSp

[Jene Bramel]

Per Rotoworld:

"The Ohio State Lantern reports that the Buccaneers have hired ex-Dolphins LBs coach Bill Sheridan as defensive coordinator."

Full article link below:
http://www.thelantern.com/sports/buckeyes-bill-sheridan-hired-as-defensive-coordinator-in-tampa-bay-1.2786336#.Tz7Xj3ozKSp

Been waiting for the press conference comments from Sheridan to comment.

Though he's been in Miami recently, where they've been using some hybrid front concepts, I'd expected Sheridan to primarily lean 4-3 with Greg Schiano and Butch Davis having coached aggressive 4-3 fronts most often. There were some suggestions in the press conference that they may cover the center and do some 2-gap stuff and a line suggesting that they might have considered more hybrid concepts had the team not drafted to 4-3 personnel lately, but I think the alignment will look and play like a 4-3 base front in most respects.

Sheridan wouldn't commit to Foster as his MLB yet. The strong suggestion was that he's considered a starter but his ultimate position was left unsettled a bit. Barring a meaningful addition before minicamp, I think Foster is the best MLB fit on the roster, but those comments were worth noting.

[tonato]

Which teams do we still consider playing a lot a Cover2/Tampa2, where we can target the CBs in CB required leagues ? Guess Tampa Bay are now out of this list for example.

[Jene Bramel]

Which teams do we still consider playing a lot a Cover2/Tampa2, where we can target the CBs in CB required leagues ? Guess Tampa Bay are now out of this list for example.

There aren't any teams that rely heavily on the Tampa-2 front four, spill and coverage concepts as a primary defensive philosophy. Many teams use Cover-2 and Tampa-2 as a coverage call, but I wouldn't separate any single defense out like Tampa and Indy in recent years.

[msommer]

In the presser re Gregg WIlliams' suspension Fisher stated that a committe will take over the DC responsibilities.
from NFL.com
quote
Fisher added that he is the originator of the defensive playbook the Rams have developed
unquote
link

So guess we should see more TEN style D than potentially NOS/WAS style D - what, if any, impact will that have on the Rams players?
Rotational DLs, interchangable OLBs and MLB an afterthought? What about the secondary. Do the Rams have the right people?