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[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

EBF

Footballguy
Some quick notes before the fun stuff:

- These rankings are intended for PPR dynasty leagues with standard lineups and scoring.

- Overall, I think this is a pretty good draft class. It's especially strong at the top, where Richardson, Blackmon, and Luck all rate as can't-miss prospects. This is a great year to have a high pick. You should get a great player. The depth is not so strong through the middle though, particularly at WR.

- You'll notice that my third tier is huge. This tends to be the case every year. Elite talents are rare. Common talents are common. The difference in value between the 1.01 and 1.10 pick is huge. The difference between the 1.10 and 2.10 pick isn't so huge. I think this is usually the case with rookie drafts.

- I included a video link for every player. Click on the names to see it. Wherever possible, I tried to find cut-ups of entire games, as I think those give the best indication of a player's skills.

- We're still pretty early in this process and it's likely that my list will change a lot after the Senior Bowl, combine, and draft itself.

TIER ONE

1.


Jones put together back-to-back strong seasons for UNC, peaking with 1196 yards and 12 TDs as a senior. He is a tall receiver who runs pretty well and shows the ability to make great catches in traffic. Like a lot of the receivers in this class, he lacks obvious elite physical traits, suggesting that his NFL upside might be limited to a complementary role. He didn't help himself with an inconsistent performance in his bowl game, lacking focus en route to numerous drops.

OTHER NOTABLES:

QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M - I'm leaving him off for now, even though he might be a high draft pick. I'm not super high on him.

RB Ronnie Hillman, San Diego State - Early entry could be a bit of a sleeper. I like his quickness and elusiveness. He's one of the more shifty backs in this draft. He's also undersized without great strength or speed. I think he'll probably be restricted to a backup role in the NFL, but I would probably be willing to reconsider that.

RB Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati - I think he's very similar to Hillman. Quick, skilled, and dangerous in the passing game. Also undersized.

RB Chris Polk, Washington - Never been a fan. Don't know why. I just don't see it.

WR AJ Jenkins, Illinois - Even though he's not listed, I consider him part of the third tier. That tier is still in flux and he's one of the guys who could be a lot higher on future editions of this list.

WR Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M - Big with decent hands, but very ordinary speed and no threat after the catch.

WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma - He has always been a difficult prospect to gauge and his injury didn't help matters. Given the lack of reliable talent at WR in this class beyond the top 3, I might be willing to roll the dice on him somewhere in tier three.

WR Chris Givens, Wake Forest - I know next to nothing about him. I'll try to learn more in the coming months.

 
Nicely done. Only real gripes are I think Juron Criner should be at the top of Tier 3 or the bottom of Tier 2, and I'd probably scratch Ballard from Tier 3. Ballard's too straight linish for my liking, and when the hole isn't immediately obvious he has the poor tendency of dancing in the backfield.

 
My favorite thread from last offseason.

I can't see Polk being that low. He looks like a 3 down RB in the pros.

 
Thanks EBF. Always appreciate your insight. As a Buckeye, I can't argue with your analysis of Posey. I'll be pulling the trigger on him in my league where I have a 2nd round pick.

 
I think you are missing the boat a bit on a particular WR that you didn't mention.

I wish I didn't play with a bunch of FBG's so I could discuss this draft class more in depth.

Overall I like the list a lot though

 
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EBF, I like where you have Martin and Wright.

I'd actually add a couple different tiers though. I'd put Michael Floyd all alone in Tier 2, and then I'd put Martin, Wright and RG3 alone in Tier 3.

That's where I really see the big dropoffs in terms of value in this year's rookie draft. Big drop from 1.03 to 1.04, another from 1.04 to 1.05 and then another after 1.07. That's what I'm keeping in mind as I look at trading up or down this offseason.

 
I think you are missing the boat a bit on a particular WR that you didn't mention.

I wish I didn't play with a bunch of FBG's so I could discuss this draft class more in depth.

Overall I like the list a lot though
I'll take a PM
We draft pretty early so you will know who I am talking about for your other drafts. I don't claim to be an expert though, just pretty high on this kid.

 
I think you are missing the boat a bit on a particular WR that you didn't mention.

I wish I didn't play with a bunch of FBG's so I could discuss this draft class more in depth.

Overall I like the list a lot though
I'll take a PM
We draft pretty early so you will know who I am talking about for your other drafts. I don't claim to be an expert though, just pretty high on this kid.
What WR?
 
Awesome write-up EBF. I have not done much evaluation but I want to make sure Richardson is that much better than Ingram. In the few games I have seen of Alabama it appears Lacy is just as effective....reminiscent of Ingram/Richardson. I would almost lean towards Blackmon at the top spot depending on where he lands (St. Louis or Carolina would be nice IMO).

Great stuff!

 
Awesome write-up EBF. I have not done much evaluation but I want to make sure Richardson is that much better than Ingram. In the few games I have seen of Alabama it appears Lacy is just as effective....reminiscent of Ingram/Richardson. I would almost lean towards Blackmon at the top spot depending on where he lands (St. Louis or Carolina would be nice IMO). Great stuff!
Early in the year I would have agreed with you about Richardson and Lacy. Lacy is no doubt a great talent as well, but over the course of the full season I think the separation was evident. Richardson is a beast. His balance is out of this world good. His frame is perfect for the position, low center of gravity with think muscles and no reduction of fast twitch fiber or explosivness. I'm still not totally sold on his vision but that's because it's sometimes hard to see it given Bama's Oline success. He is nearly impossible to tackle with one guy and regularly creates YAC or creates plays/yardage when it isn't there. IMO he is clearly the #1 dynasty option unless you perhaps have a start 2 QB league, in which Luck could sneak ahead.
 
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RGIII seems awful low to me. I can't see guys like Floyd or Martin being more valuable over time than him. Sure, there are some question related to his scheme, but his success as a passer was ridiculous and so is his raw athletic ability. He's got the right mental make-up for the position, like Luck, and his work ethic hasn't been questioned by anyone. With the NFL more and more converting to a QB league, I can't justify him being outside the top 5.
 
'EBF said:
'Xue said:
Where's Brian Quick?
Didn't make the cut. I wasn't that impressed with him. He reminds me of Stephen Williams (AZ Cardinals).
Quick should be right there with Sanu. I mean you don't sound impressed with Sanu either or any other WR in the 3rd tier.If these rankings are PPR, then Pierce is a bit overrated.
 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Hey Mr. FunkGreat work per usual.Was wondering, could you possibly link your work from last year in the first post?Thanks
Someone else posted a link. Last year's rankings are looking a bit shaky, as several of the players I dogged did pretty well as rookies (Dalton, T Smith, Murray). I did better in 2010. Hopefully this year's lists will also be solid.
 
'jurb26 said:
'King of the Jungle said:
Awesome write-up EBF. I have not done much evaluation but I want to make sure Richardson is that much better than Ingram. In the few games I have seen of Alabama it appears Lacy is just as effective....reminiscent of Ingram/Richardson. I would almost lean towards Blackmon at the top spot depending on where he lands (St. Louis or Carolina would be nice IMO). Great stuff!
Early in the year I would have agreed with you about Richardson and Lacy. Lacy is no doubt a great talent as well, but over the course of the full season I think the separation was evident. Richardson is a beast. His balance is out of this world good. His frame is perfect for the position, low center of gravity with think muscles and no reduction of fast twitch fiber or explosivness. I'm still not totally sold on his vision but that's because it's sometimes hard to see it given Bama's Oline success. He is nearly impossible to tackle with one guy and regularly creates YAC or creates plays/yardage when it isn't there. IMO he is clearly the #1 dynasty option unless you perhaps have a start 2 QB league, in which Luck could sneak ahead.
Sums it up pretty nicely. I wasn't hugely impressed with Lacy against LSU. He's not a bad back, but I didn't come away thinking he has a great NFL future. Richardson is quite a bit better. It's not just about the college stats. It's about what they're capable of. Richardson is much more gifted.
 
As a Georgia Tech fan, I'd advise you to take Hill out of your top 24. While he has the physical traits you'd be looking for, he has some of the worst hands I have ever witnessed.

The advisory board gave him the third ranking (i.e. will be drafted, but not in the first 3 rounds).

Serious doubts he ever does anything in the NFL.

 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Hey Mr. Funk

Great work per usual.

Was wondering, could you possibly link your work from last year in the first post?

Thanks
Someone else posted a link. Last year's rankings are looking a bit shaky, as several of the players I dogged did pretty well as rookies (Dalton, T Smith, Murray).

I did better in 2010. Hopefully this year's lists will also be solid.
Dynasty 2010 top 24 rookies
 
'EBF said:
30 yards and 0.25 TD rushing/game equates to 4.5 points a game. I think those are pretty conservative numbers - add them to average Fantasy QBs and they become very good options. Add them to a good passing QB, which RG3 projects to be, and you have top 5 QB potential. I don't see any circumstances in which Griffin shouldn't be in the first tier.

 
'jurb26 said:
On the one hand, I think he might be a little underrated here, particularly when you consider where I have Luck. On the other hand, I disagree that Martin and Floyd can't have more value. The runaway success of players like Brees, Rodgers, and Newton this past season was a bit out of the ordinary. The ppg numbers they posted are better than career averages of elite players like Brady and Manning. So while I think the NFL has become a passing league, I don't know that we're going to see anyone put up these silly stats on a yearly basis.

Unless you are playing in 2 QB league or a league with QB heavy scoring, there are probably only a handful of QBs in your FF league who carry elite trade value. Rodgers. Newton. Maybe Brady, Brees, or even Stafford. But once you get beyond the very elite, you're left with a big cluster of players with "meh" trade value. I have guys like Cutler and Ryan as backups in some of my leagues and I'm guessing that I couldn't even get a late first round rookie pick for either of them in a trade. A QB really has to be super elite to command a high price.

It's a different story at WR and RB, where players like Ahmad Bradshaw, Marshawn Lynch, Dwayne Bowe, and Steve Johnson carry large trade value even though they're not quite among the best in the league at their positions. If Floyd becomes a Vincent Jackson type and Martin becomes a Fred Jackson type (in terms of production) then you're looking at very valuable dynasty commodities. In this scenario you could almost certainly trade them for Griffin unless he becomes an absolute superstar. Even then, a merely "good" RB/WR often costs as much in a trade as a "great" QB. I feel like Martin and Floyd have a high enough probability of success to justify it. Wright...maybe not so much.

 
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As a Georgia Tech fan, I'd advise you to take Hill out of your top 24. While he has the physical traits you'd be looking for, he has some of the worst hands I have ever witnessed.The advisory board gave him the third ranking (i.e. will be drafted, but not in the first 3 rounds). Serious doubts he ever does anything in the NFL.
Good to know. Thanks.
 
The runaway success of players like Brees, Rodgers, and Newton this past season was a bit out of the ordinary.
I agree 100%, which is why I think RG3 should be higher; Luck lower.Camron Newton's PPG were higher than the 3 (last 3) year average of Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. If RG3 is legit - and I am not suggesting he is the next Newton - he has an easier path to points than Luck does.
 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Hey Mr. FunkGreat work per usual.Was wondering, could you possibly link your work from last year in the first post?Thanks
Someone else posted a link. Last year's rankings are looking a bit shaky, as several of the players I dogged did pretty well as rookies (Dalton, T Smith, Murray). I did better in 2010. Hopefully this year's lists will also be solid.
No problems, I just like reading stuff that people put in great time and effort on.
 
'EBF said:
'Xue said:
Where's Brian Quick?
Didn't make the cut. I wasn't that impressed with him. He reminds me of Stephen Williams (AZ Cardinals).
Quick should be right there with Sanu. I mean you don't sound impressed with Sanu either or any other WR in the 3rd tier.If these rankings are PPR, then Pierce is a bit overrated.
I don't love this year's third tier, though that could change in the coming months if I find more sleepers that I like. I get the Taylor Price/Brian Robiskie vibe with a lot of these receivers. Like you know they're going to be pretty high picks, but you also pretty much know they're not going to be standout NFL players. Quick didn't do much for me in the clips I saw. I would rather have guys like AJ Jenkins and Ryan Broyles, even though neither of them made the current list either. I think Quick is overrated, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.
 
The runaway success of players like Brees, Rodgers, and Newton this past season was a bit out of the ordinary.
I agree 100%, which is why I think RG3 should be higher; Luck lower.Camron Newton's PPG were higher than the 3 (last 3) year average of Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. If RG3 is legit - and I am not suggesting he is the next Newton - he has an easier path to points than Luck does.
Agreed, but that's offset by the fact that Luck is a safer projection for success. Also, Griffin isn't as special as Cam athletically. He might be faster in a straight line, but he's a lot smaller. Built like a WR whereas Cam is built like a big TE. You don't want Griffin getting hit by linebackers. He wouldn't last.
 
I suppose some of our experiences in dynasty leagues may just be different. From the leagues I've been in it seems pretty difficult to get, keep or pry away almost any starting QBs. This was even before this years run away scoring fest for QBs. RBs shuffle so rapidly from year to year that there always seems to be a WW or trade option, WRs too. If you can draft a capable starting QB as a rookie, I've found there is great value in them.
 
That is a pretty good point. In my dynasty the owners of Brady, Manning, and Brees have never moved them once they hit elite status. The guy with Newton turned down my trade offer of Adrian Peterson after week 1. I am lucky to have Stafford develop and no way do I part with him (although I would not consider him in the same category as the others quite yet).
 
Yea, but you are talking about the very best guys in the league. I feel like QB is a position where you can always acquire a pretty solid starter for a modest cost because there are always teams with great backups. How much would it have cost you before the season to get somebody like Rivers/Roethlisberger/Romo/Schaub? They wouldn't have been dirt cheap, but certainly not as expensive as a proven starter at RB or WR. For Luck and Griffin to carry high value, they almost have to become elite players. Merely being "good" won't be enough. The same can't be said for a guy like Doug Martin, who will be a top 40 pick in every startup dynasty draft in 2013 if he rushes for 1k+ as a rookie.

 
Unless you are playing in 2 QB league or a league with QB heavy scoring, there are probably only a handful of QBs in your FF league who carry elite trade value. Rodgers. Newton. Maybe Brady, Brees, or even Stafford. But once you get beyond the very elite, you're left with a big cluster of players with "meh" trade value. I have guys like Cutler and Ryan as backups in some of my leagues and I'm guessing that I couldn't even get a late first round rookie pick for either of them in a trade. A QB really has to be super elite to command a high price.
I suppose some of our experiences in dynasty leagues may just be different. From the leagues I've been in it seems pretty difficult to get, keep or pry away almost any starting QBs. This was even before this years run away scoring fest for QBs. RBs shuffle so rapidly from year to year that there always seems to be a WW or trade option, WRs too. If you can draft a capable starting QB as a rookie, I've found there is great value in them.
That is a pretty good point. In my dynasty the owners of Brady, Manning, and Brees have never moved them once they hit elite status. The guy with Newton turned down my trade offer of Adrian Peterson after week 1. I am lucky to have Stafford develop and no way do I part with him (although I would not consider him in the same category as the others quite yet).
Post-hype guys like Eli and Ryan are impossible to move for good value unless they put up elite numbers. Pre-hype guys like Freeman or Bradford last year and Locker or maybe Dalton this year are easy to move for decent value.
 
I joined my first Start 2 QB (actually the 2nd QB can be a flex) and they score well league this past season. This year will be my first rookie draft where having 2 QBs is a possibility...

Out of curiosity.. for people who have been in these leagues before, what is your experience with how high QBs go in rookie drafts?

In my other leagues, even the top guys (Newton, etc..) I haven't seen them picked until late in the first... but I'd imagine in a Start 2 QB system, they would go right at the top????

 
I joined my first Start 2 QB (actually the 2nd QB can be a flex) and they score well league this past season. This year will be my first rookie draft where having 2 QBs is a possibility... Out of curiosity.. for people who have been in these leagues before, what is your experience with how high QBs go in rookie drafts?In my other leagues, even the top guys (Newton, etc..) I haven't seen them picked until late in the first... but I'd imagine in a Start 2 QB system, they would go right at the top????
I would be surprised if Luck/RG3 didn't both go in the top 3 picks.
 
I joined my first Start 2 QB (actually the 2nd QB can be a flex) and they score well league this past season. This year will be my first rookie draft where having 2 QBs is a possibility... Out of curiosity.. for people who have been in these leagues before, what is your experience with how high QBs go in rookie drafts?In my other leagues, even the top guys (Newton, etc..) I haven't seen them picked until late in the first... but I'd imagine in a Start 2 QB system, they would go right at the top????
I would be surprised if Luck/RG3 didn't both go in the top 3 picks.
All these QBs were first round picks in my 10 team superflexNewton, Kaepernick, Locker, GabbertBradford, TebowStafford, SanchezRyanRussell, QuinnMy experience is that people take marquee prospects at RB, WR over them but not 2nd tier guys. I thought the QB was the no brainer #1 pick in both the Stafford and Bradford years, but not the others.The top 4 picks will be Luck, Richardson, RG3, Blackmon. Luck and Richardson would be about equal. RG3 and Blackmon would be about equal. If another QB goes in the NFL 1st, like Tannehill, they'll be late 1sts.
 

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