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Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings


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#1 Couch Potato

Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 03:58 PM

Continuing with my offseason dynasty rankings, we're now looking at early June rankings (6/3). This will be an ongoing work in process through Summer. Change is continuous as developing news adds/reduces clarity, and I'll try to post my changes every couple weeks or so.

I like to remind people that a dynasty list is not necessarily a trade list or a draft list no matter how firm the list becomes. Other factors beyond dynasty ranking come into play in making roster choices. Mix already on the roster in terms of age/youth, player risk, need for current production vs. upside, etc., all play a part in the decision. Making trades or drafting a team based just on someone's dynasty list is a mistake in my opinion. Every dynasty roster is a balancing act has its own specific needs, and no list should be a substitute for using good overall judgment.

Listed below are 350 ranked veteran and rookie players (50QB, 100RB, 150WR, 50TE) and 140 unranked veteran and rookie players (20QB, 40RB, 60WR, 20TE). In total, that's 490 players (70QB, 140RB, 210WR, 70TE).

The post-draft rookies are now ranked numerically along with the vets. They had previously been numbered separately because I didn't want to disturb the vet ranking numbers until after the NFL draft. I've used orange in the notes section to help you spot the rookies.
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Next expected updates --
A) Week of 6/12 updated WR notes
B) Mid-June or so, next rankings update about two weeks from now

Updated 6/3 for QB RB WR TE (including updated notes except WR)
Updated 5/12 for post-draft QB RB WR TE
Updated 4/2 for QYR (Quality Years Remaining)
Updated 3/22 - 27 for first two weeks of FA
Updated 3/2 to add rookies
Updated 2/18 - 28 for 2nd pass
Updated 2/19 for UFA / RFA / ERFA designation
Started 2/3 - 8 with 1st pass for QB RB WR TE
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QUARTERBACKS

Rk, Rk Chg, Player Name, Team, Age (at 9/1/12), QYR, Notes

Tier 1 - Crème de la crème core players -- acquire them and hold on tight

1 +0 Rodgers, Aaron GB 28.8 6.5 … 1st round, #24 pick in 2005. Signed through 2014. At the top of his game.

2 +0 Stafford, Matthew DET 24.6 9.8 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2009. Signed through 2014. Lions locking up Calvin Johnson long term was huge for Stafford. Titus Young in 2nd year s/b improved, and adding rookie Broyles for slot duty by 2013 also adds firepower.

Tier 2 - Elite talents who will help you win fantasy football championships

3 +0 Luck, Andrew IND 23.0 11.0 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2012. Best prospect since Peyton? Elway? Should pay big dividends by his 2nd season for those with the courage to draft him over more experienced but less gifted QBs. I'm clearly the outlier ranking him this high, but I don't mind that one bit. He's going to exceed expectations of those ranking him lower and it will become clear within a year's time that they'll need to rank him about where I do now. He's just too good for this 'prove it first' delay in my opinion. This is one dynasty QB everyone is going to want on his roster, trust me.

4 +0 Newton, Cam CAR 23.3 10.8 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014. Expect run TDs to return to something more reasonable. Cam stated (4/14) that his progress this offseason has been “through the roof.” QBs typically experience a nice jump in passing awareness in their 2nd seasons as the game slows down for them.

5 +0 Brees, Drew NO 33.6 2.7 … 2nd round in 2001. Will loss of HC Payton affect Brees? Still no progress on contract, but until training camp it's a non-issue for this seasoned vet.

Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside

6 +0 Griffin III, Robert WAS 22.6 11.3 … 1st round, #2 pick in 2012. It may be gutsy to rank him this high and hard to stomach the learning curve, but it'll be worth it if you are truly looking dynasty long term. Running skills will be a big help to fantasy production.

7 +0 Manning, Eli NYG 31.7 4.2 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2004. Signed through 2015. Lost Manningham but added Rueben Randle as #3. That's a net improvement once Randle is up to speed to go along with Nicks and Cruz. As the seasons go by, Eli's understanding of the QB position, and thus his performance, gets better and better.

8 +0 Ryan, Matt ATL 27.3 7.6 … 1st round, #3 pick in 2008. Signed through 2013. I've really come around on Ryan and have moved him up a few spots. He finished as QB8 last year and had his best numbers so far, and was even better over the 2nd half of the season. He's just entering his prime at 27, Roddy is a still-productive 31 and Julio is just developing. They should be even more of a passing team going forward with Turner in decline and the RB position about to be in transition. They reportedly will also be using the no-huddle a lot more. Ryan could be on a Brady-like career curve.

9 +0 Rivers, Philip SD 30.7 4.9 … 1st round, #4 pick in 2004. Signed through 2015. I still love Rivers, but I'm concerned about his weapons. Gates is slowing soon if not already, V Jackson is gone, Meachem is an untested #1 replacement, Floyd is a bit past his prime, and I'm not sold on V Brown being anything special.

10 +0 Vick, Michael PHI 32.2 3.8 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2001. Signed through 2016 (effectively 2015). At 32, you have to wonder if a QB whose fantasy value is predicated a good deal on running ability will experience a decline in fantasy production earlier than prototypical passing QBs.

Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters

11 +0 Romo, Tony DAL 32.4 3.7 … Undrafted in 2003. Signed through 2013. Jerry Jones still professes confidence in Romo, but repeated failure to get anywhere close to the Super Bowl seems likely to test his patience. At 32 Romo will never be more than he is, and his heir apparent could be in the 2013 draft class, the year Romo's contract is up, if Dallas doesn't get deep into the playoffs in 2012. Still, he performs at near-elite levels for fantasy and has great weapons at WR and TE.

12 +0 Brady, Tom NE 35.1 1.5 … 6h round in 2000. Signed through 2014. In the last stages of his career, at 35 his age cannot be ignored when thinking dynasty. The shoulder issue seems to be a continuing problem. Will it worsen? No one stays on top forever, and to keep ranking him as a top-5 dynasty QB (as some continue to do) until AFTER the fall would be an ostrich-like failure of duty on my part. There's no way I'd draft him in a start up draft any earlier than this area.

13 +0 Bradford, Sam STL 24.8 9.6 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2010. Signed through 2015. My advice is not to use limited thinking and devalue him based on 2011. He's still got a bright career ahead. A second year of experience, adding WRs Quick and Givens and RB Pead in the draft, Salas more experienced, Amendola back from injury, and his own ankle issues behind him, all will help.

14 +0 Cutler, Jay CHI 29.3 6.0 … 1st round, #11 pick in 2006. Signed through 2013. Always something of an enigma, at times he looks special and at other times disinterested. But he's also had poor receiving weapons around him since coming to the Bears. Now adding WRs Marshall (though a head case) and Alshon Jeffrey, and back in a system that allows him to use a TE, he has a fighting chance to become a starting fantasy QB again.

15 +1 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 30.5 5.1 … 1st round, #11 pick in 2004. Signed through 2015. OC Arians is gone and former Chiefs HC Haley takes over the offense. Contrary to what some believe - that because of Mendenhll's ACL they'll pass more - I think they go back to more of a ball control and short passing approach that will protect Ben better and allow him to take less of a beating. This will cause his passing numbers to take a hit. He's no longer a starting dynasty QB in my eyes.

16 (-1) Freeman, Josh TB 24.6 9.7 … 1st round, #17 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013. He really came on in the back half of 2010, but along with the rest of the team fell apart in 2011 as he was always having to play catch up thanks to a defense regularly giving up 20+ points by half time. He still has the talent, and now has V Jackson on board, but look for HC Schiano to reduce pass attempts and turn this into more of a ball control running offense.

Tier 5 - Vets with extra downside risk and youth with interesting potential

17 +0 Manning, Peyton DEN 36.4 0.5 … 1st round, #1 pick in 1998. Signed through 2016 (signed 3/19). All reports are that both arm strength and accuracy have returned sufficiently to indicate that a full recovery for the 2012 season can be expected. Look for Peyton to fulfill 3 years of his 4 year contract most likely, maybe 4 which would make him 40 at retirement. He'll not play again like he did at 30, but his unique QB IQ sets him apart. Although his physical skills are on the decline I think he'll still be reasonably productive.

18 +0 Flacco, Joe BAL 27.6 7.4 … 1st round, #18 pick in 2008. Signed through 2012. Progress on an extension has completely stalled, and his comments suggesting he s/b considered a top 5 QB aren't helping. If he expects to be paid like one, that just isn't happening. I have a little bit of an uncomfortable gut feeling about this guy's psychology. He just doesn't seem to be above whining and thinks he's more special than he is. He's been fairly productive, but if he begins to be perceived as having leadership issues and then has a couple of sub par years, he could become a backup NFL QB sooner than people think.

19 +1 Palmer, Carson OAK 32.7 3.4 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2003. Signed through 2014. For so long we all thought of him as finished (though he's the same age as Romo), so shedding that bias is difficult. But whatever caused his arm strength to disappear 2-3 years ago seems to have worked itself out and he was again zipping the ball by the end of 2011. I expect a big improvement now that he's knocked off the rust of his one year “retirement,” and his WRs and RBs are all talented with speed to burn.

20 +1 Tannehill, Ryan MIA 24.1 10.1 … 1st round, #8 pick in 2012. Didn't have a lot of starts in college. Was over-drafted by MIA due to need. Supporting cast and front office abilities are worrisome. Bust potential appears high. On the plus side, OC Sherman was his college coach and Tannehill says he already knows 80-85% of the playbook. Very strong arm, can make all the NFL throws. Star potential is there. Bust? Star? We'll see. Will probably not start right away but could be in there by mid-season.

21 +1 Schaub, Matt HOU 31.2 4.6 … 3rd round in 2004. Signed through 2012. This has become a running team, and team pass attempts last year were down as compared to previous years. I expect to see much of the TD scoring to come on the ground with Foster and Tate so hard to stop. Also, Schaub is coming off a serious foot injury. Both starting WRs and TE are on the other side of 30, Jacoby Jones didn't pan out and is gone, and the new rookie reinforcements are just average talents. Lestar Jean, though perhaps promising, was undrafted and is still an unknown. For all these reasons I'd not plan on seeing the stats Schaub was putting up 2-3 years ago again as we go forward. One more dynasty matter -- he's also unsigned beyond 2012 with no extension talks scheduled. I find that interesting and perhaps worrisome.

22 (-3) Locker, Jake TEN 24.2 10.0 … 1st round, #8 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014. Had some promising moments last season. I'll need to see a lot more before believing in him though. I didn't like him much coming out of college, still think he could be a bust. He always had accuracy issues and I question whether he gets it when it comes to everything happening on the field. Word is Hasselbeck is 50/50 to begin the season again as starter, and to me that raises questions about their belief in Locker going into his 2nd year. He has the physical tools to be elite though, and potential star WRs in K Britt and K Wright. Until I see more this is where I rank him.

23 +0 Dalton, Andy CIN 24.8 9.6 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. He has an elite WR in AJ Green, some nice draftees in M Sanu and M Jones, and Binns is reportedly promising. Surrounding talent should help, and he still has plenty of room to grow, but I just don't think Dalton will ever be a good enough QB to rank as a fantasy starter. He's decent but I don't think he'll ever be special.

Tier 6 – Vets as occasional lineup fillers and youth with uncertain potential

24 +2 Ponder, Christian MIN 24.5 9.8 … 1st round, #12 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014. The Vikings over-drafted when they picked Ponder 12th in 2011. Badly needing a QB, and seeing their targets Locker and Gabbert go at #8 and #10, they panicked. It helps that he has RB Peterson to run the ball and WR Harvin to dump off to so he can let his playmakers make plays, but I think he's a pedestrian QB talent and little more than a game manager until he shows me otherwise.

25 (-1) Flynn, Matt SEA 27.2 7.7 … 7th round in 2008. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/18). Takes over starting job with some decent WRs and TEs to throw to. This is a run first team though, so don't set expectations too high. For the start of 2012, don't listen to any of the “competition” noise you'll hear. T-Jax heads to the bench and 3rd round rookie Russell Wilson isn't ready. I don't think the Seattle brain trust thinks of Flynn as a long term answer though. They gushed over Wilson and have said a few other things that give me the feeling they see Flynn as more of a stop gap. Be careful not to invest too much here.

26 +1 Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF 29.8 5.7 … 7h round in 2005. Signed through 2017. Started hot in 2011, even beating the Patriots, but after his rib injury he and the team really struggled. Does not possess a very strong arm but HC Gailey's offense is well suited to his strengths, and the re-signing of Stevie Johnson helps a lot. Front office and Gailey are committed to him for the foreseeable future so he's a safe and cheap fantasy backup to own. The signing of Vince Young shouldn't be perceived as a threat to his job security in my opinion.

27 +1 Weeden, Brandon CLE 28.9 6.4 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2012. Count on him starting from day one. You don't draft a 28 year old in the first round and sit him. He says his age, his maturity, will help. He'll still have his growing pains transitioning from college ball to the NFL, and he has no WR in CLE like Blackmon in college to make him look good. If he works his way up my dynasty rankings over time so be it, but he's a lower tier guy in my eyes for now.

28 +3 Smith, Alex SF 28.3 6.8 … 1st round, #1 pick in 2005. Signed through 2014 (re-signed 3/20). Harbaugh said on 5/1 that this is Smith's job and he's not in competition with backups Kaepernick or Johnson. Makes sense I guess, his playoff performance probably earned him that. Harbaugh has also commented that improvement in Smith's mechanics is continuing along nicely. Still, Alex is Alex, and until he proves otherwise I don't see him at this point in his career becoming much more than what he has been except for short stretches. I still see Kaepernick starting one day, though apparently not until 2013 unless the team tanks early in 2012.

29 (-4) Kolb, Kevin ARI 28.0 7.1 … 2nd round in 2007. Signed through 2016. We all know of his struggles and injuries last year after the big offseason trade. He'll have every chance to succeed with a full camp this time around, and adding M Floyd to pair with Fitz has to help. But if Kolb fails they'll turn things over to Skelton. Whisenhunt recently said he'd prefer Kolb to be his starter but that the competition is wide open, so Kolb knows the grace period is over and he has to produce. I see Kolb still getting and holding the job, but if not, don't let the big contract he signed last year fool you. It's constructed so the Cardinals can cut him loose relatively pain free after 2012.

30 +0 Gabbert, Blaine JAC 22.9 11.1 … 1st round, #10 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014. Probably a make or break year given how bad he was in 2011. Team says they still believe in him, but what else can they say? They invested a #10 pick in him. Adding WRs Blackmon and L Robinson will help, and maybe with a year of experience Gabbert will start to get the hang of things. But unless he stops curling up into a fetal position whenever there's a hint of a pass rush his development isn't going to be sufficient.

31 (-2) Sanchez, Mark NYJ 25.8 8.8 … 1st round, #5 pick in 2009. Signed through 2016 (extension signed 3/9). Bringing Tebow to town just perpetuates the Jets' circus and adds more questions about Sanchez' leadership role. Expected return to ground and pound approach, and up to 20 snaps per game for Tebow in various roles, will limit productivity of The Sanchize. His upside is just too severely capped, and the risk of losing his job to Tebow is too real, to rank much higher than this.

Tier 7 - Talent may be there but it'll be an uphill climb to fantasy relevance

32 +5 Wilson, Russell SEA 23.8 10.4 … 3rd round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Wow, did GM Schneider and HC Carroll rave about this guy after drafting him. Problem is, he's just 5'11” on a good day, and that generally doesn't cut it as an NFL starter. Team believes he has sufficiently demonstrated a unique ability to find seams between all those big DL bodies, plus his release point is higher than normal, making him play taller than he is. Carroll even suggested Wilson could compete to start this season, though I think that would be highly unlikely. Still, don't etch Matt Flynn's name in stone as long term starter if the GM and HC remain this high on Wilson.

33 +1 Tebow, Tim NYJ 25.1 9.4 … 1st round, #25 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014. The dysfunctional Jets locker room is supposedly going to be helped by Timmy. Good luck with that. All this is probably going to do is divide things further, with some players for Sanchez and some for Tebow as soon as Sanchez has a bad stretch. The Jets' current plan is to use Tebow at QB, HB, FB, RB, and special teams, up to 20 plays / gm. Let's not forget -- he still struggles as a passer in terms of mechanics and accuracy. The gimmickry may mask things awhile, but if his NFL passing skills never develop he'll never be a long term starting QB.

34 (-2) Kaepernick, Colin SF 24.8 9.6 … 2nd round in 2011. Harbaugh said on 5/1 that Alex Smith's job is secure, that Kaep and Johnson will compete for #2. I expect the starter's job to be Kaepernick's in 2013, though I'm admittedly less comfortable in that belief than I was 6-12 months ago and I've therefore lowered him in the rankings. The jury is out on how he'd do once in place too. Even as starter I wouldn't move him above about QB25-30 without seeing something good on the field from him first.

35 (-2) Osweiler, Brock DEN 21.8 12.0 … 2nd round in 2012. Pre-draft opinions on him were all over the map. Ultimately he went in the 2nd and looks to be Manning's replacement someday. That could be in 4 years if all goes well for Manning, or it could be next year if the neck relapses. You can stash Osweiler at the end of your fantasy bench, but you can't know how long you'll have to wait. Worth it? Probably depends on how deep your league's benches are.

36 +0 Cassel, Matt KC 30.3 5.3 … 7h round in 2005. Signed through 2014. His job is safe for another year unless he's horrible, as mediocre Brady Quinn has been brought in as backup. Someone like Henne, Orton or Campbell would have made things more interesting but they chose to sign elsewhere. I can't imagine Cassel's time lasting past 2012 though if this team wants to improve substantially, and I look for KC to be in the market for a free agent or first round draft pick at QB in 2013.

37 +1 Moore, Matt MIA 28.1 7.0 … Undrafted in 2007. Signed through 2012. Looks to begin the year as starter after MIA whiffed on signing other potential QBs. How long that lasts will depend on Tannehill and when he'll be ready. Tannehill could be starting by midseason if MIA is losing and he grasps the playbook (he says it's mostly the same as in college -- new OC Sherman was his HC in college) -- then it's back to the bench for Moore. If Tannehill doesn't progress sufficiently as a rookie, Moore could start all year. While Garrard has been added, I don't expect him to seriously challenge for the starting job.

38 NR Hasselbeck, Matt TEN 36.9 0.1 … 6h round in 1998. Signed through 2013. Houston writer John McClain believes Hasselbeck will start again this season and will hold the job as long as they are in contention. In their division that could be all year. At nearly 37 he's not what he once was but is still a savvy game manager. More recent reports suggest it's 50-50 who will start, but I'd be inclined to trust McClain's opinion.

39 +0 Henne, Chad JAC 27.2 7.7 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (signed 3/14). Provides legit competition for Gabbert for starting job. Though Gabbert will remain the strong favorite entering the season, without major improvement I could see the Jags pulling the plug and going with Henne before the season is 1/2 gone. Still, Henne has failed as a starter elsewhere and doesn't have a lot to offer if he ends up with the job.

40 +4 Skelton, John ARI 24.5 9.9 … 5th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Whisenhunt has stated this will be an open competition in preseason though he would prefer that Kolb win the job due to the investment in him. Skelton's best shot is Kolb totally flopping and then being the beneficiary of the Fitz and Floyd talent show. Even if he does take over for Kolb, I'd think it would be a short term gig until a real QB of the future could be found. Skelton is just not accurate enough, or a good enough decision maker, to be a long term NFL starter.

Tier 8 - Under-27 longshots maybe worth a stash at the end of your bench

41 (-6) Mallett, Ryan NE 24.2 10.0 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Was a possible first round talent but a problem child in college, dropping him to the 3rd round. He needs time sitting in NE to mature and rehab image. Hoyer is likely gone after this year, so Mallett could well be next in line for Brady's job in a few years. Or he could be traded if someone pays Patriots' price. So, it's an uncertain and probably slow climb to becoming a starter, and then more uncertainty as to whether he has the makeup to succeed at this level.

42 (-1) Hoyer, Brian NE 26.9 8.0 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/23). Signed a one-year deal to return, and will be a UFA in 2013. There appears to be some interest in him as a possible starter once available according to various reports, but that's pretty iffy at this point. Possible he re-ups in 2013 though if he gets no bites and they decide to deal Mallett.

43 +0 McCoy, Colt CLE 26.0 8.7 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Blindsided by the drafting of Weeden, suddenly has gone from starter to nobody. Apparently will not be traded, at least not this year (so they say at this point). With two years' starting experience, he could again get a shot somewhere sometime. Would always be a lower tier starter though, as his arm is not really NFL caliber.

44 (-2) Foles, Nick PHI 23.6 10.5 … 3rd round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Drafted in the 3rd round even though they have an experienced 4th rounder Kafka there as the #2. Is Philly thinking Foles could be Vick's replacement in a couple years? Maybe. Some love his talent, many think it's pretty iffy though. Eye of the beholder. Time will tell what the Philly front office really thinks after he's developed some. He'll sit and learn as the #3 in 2012.

45 +1 Pryor, Terrelle OAK 23.2 10.8 … Supp draft 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Team gave him a look as possible #2 in OTAs then signed Leinart as probable #2 for this year. Technically still in competition for the job though apparently not ready, he's got a lot of room to grow and should benefit from having his first real NFL training camp. Great athleticism, iffy passing skills. Word is they are looking to use him in certain packages this year.

46 NR Cousins, Kirk WAS 24.0 10.2 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Seemingly buried behind RGIII for the next 4 years, but was a highly regarded college QB and a trade before then is not out of the question.

47 +0 Yates, T.J. HOU 25.3 9.2 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Probable career backup, but did some good things when forced into action as a rookie when Schaub and then Leinert were hurt. Schaub's health is always an issue and his contract expires in 2012 with no current extension talks that I'm aware of. There may be hope here for Yates, but not a lot.

48 +0 Johnson, Josh SF 26.3 8.4 … 5th round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (signed 3/22). Even if he wins the backup job this year due to his experience, I believe he'll be leapfrogged by Kaepernick when Smith's time is up, and Johnson will stay at #2. Has a chance to start in 2013 though if Kaep doesn't develop to expectations.

49 +0 Clausen, Jimmy CAR 24.9 9.5 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Was overmatched as starter in 2010, leading to the drafting of Newton. A young former early 2nd rounder who was once highly regarded though, and he may get another shot again somewhere one of these days. HC Rivera recently said as much also (6/1).

50 +0 Webb, Joe MIN 25.8 8.8 … 6h round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Did reasonably well in relief of Ponder. Very athletic former QB / WR, will concentrate 100% on QB this year. There's a chance Ponder doesn't cut it and Webb gets the job, but it's likely the Vikings will give their 2011 1st rounder a long leash.

Rosterable in a pinch, 20 players not ranked -- listed by draft year

999 NR Lindley, Ryan ARI 23.2 10.8 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Probably not a lot to see here other than opportunity, as Kolb/Skelton so far have not shown themselves to be anything special.
999 NR Coleman, B.J. GB 24.0 10.2 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Probably will take over for Harrell as Rodgers' backup after 2012.
999 NR Harnish, Chandler IND 24.1 10.1 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Probable backup to Luck once ready.
999 NR Davis, Austin STL 23.2 10.8 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/28 as UDFA. Good college QB, could end up as Bradford's long term backup.
999 NR Moore, Kellen DET 23.1 10.9 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/28 as UDFA
999 NR Keenum, Case HOU 24.5 9.8 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/28 as UDFA
999 NR Stanzi, Ricky KC 25.0 9.4 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Talent probably not there to follow Cassel as starter, and now behind Quinn, but was a 5th rounder and worth keeping in the back of your mind. Recent reports (late May) that he could win the #2 job ahead of Quinn.
999 NR Taylor, Tyrod BAL 23.1 10.9 … 6h round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Flacco's backup and probably nothing more. Has some ability though, and Flacco is still not signed past this year.
999 NR Kafka, Mike PHI 25.1 9.3 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Was thought to have a shot as Vick's successor by some, but drafting of Foles probably changes that. There's a history of Philly backups being traded to start elsewhere though, and Kafka was a good college QB and a 4th rounder.
999 NR Daniel, Chase NO 25.9 8.7 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/12). Backup to Drew Brees in a big time passing offense.
999 NR Harrell, Graham GB 27.3 7.6 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2013. Backup to Aaron Rodgers for the time being in a big time passing offense. Likely to be surpassed by rookie Coleman in time though.
999 NR Quinn, Brady KC 27.8 7.2 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2007. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/17). Will probably be #2 in KC, though some are suggesting Stanzi may beat him out. Not likely to put Cassel's job in any danger in any case.
999 (-6) Young, Vince BUF 29.3 6.1 … 1st round, #3 pick in 2006. Signed through 2012 (signed 5/11). Despite all the QB movement during first wave of free agency, not a peep about VY during that time. Finally he landed in BUF but has no chance of unseating Fitzpatrick this year. Likely then another go round in free agency next year where he'll hope to find a place to start.
999 NR Leinart, Matt OAK 29.3 6.1 … 1st round, #10 pick in 2006. Signed through 2012 (signed 5/1). Will most likely serve as #2 behind Palmer for a year while Pryor develops.
999 NR Jackson, Tarvaris SEA 29.4 6.0 … 2nd round in 2006. Signed through 2012. Talk of QB competition with Flynn is an illusion. Drafting of R Wilson likely seals his fate, and this s/b his last year in Seattle. After that it's hard to see him getting another shot to start anywhere.
999 (-11) Campbell, Jason CHI 30.7 5.0 … 1st round, #25 pick in 2005. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/13). One year deal will allow him to test market again in 2013 to try to find a starting job. He's been a better starter than given credit for.
999 NR Orton, Kyle DAL 29.8 5.7 … 4th round in 2005. Signed though 2014 (signed 3/13). Replaces retired Kitna as Romo's backup. New 3 year deal means he can now be forgotten as potential starter anywhere, but Romo owners may want to handcuff him.
999 NR Grossman, Rex WAS 32.0 3.9 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2003. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/17). One year deal to back up RGIII. His NFL starting days are over.
999 NR Garrard, David MIA 34.5 2.0 … 4th round in 2002. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/19). Looks to be the backup in MIA to begin the year, and I'm not buying any talk of him competing to start in training camp. There's no point in it at his age, with a history of back trouble, and a rookie waiting in the wings. If Moore isn't the guy, they'll go with Tannehill.
999 NR Hill, Shaun DET 32.6 3.4 … Undrafted in 2002. Signed through 2013 (re-signed 3/17). Pretty good handcuff for Stafford.



RUNNING BACKS

RB note: Tier 8 consists only of players under age 26, even though there are older players in the 999 unranked group below them that may have more redraft value. The idea is that if players don't make the Tier 7 group (about 65 vets), it's better not to dwell on mediocre older guys who have little chance of being lasting difference makers, and to focus instead on younger under the radar names that some folks may not know. There was a time when Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, Fred Jackson, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Grant, Willie Parker (all 7th round or undrafted) were relatively unknown too. Perhaps one or more of today's unknowns could emerge as those players did, and that makes them worth keeping an eye on.

Rk, Rk Chg, Player Name, Team, Age (at 9/1/12), QYR, Notes

Tier 1 - Crème de la crème core players -- acquire them and hold on tight

1 +0 Foster, Arian HOU 26.0 4.5 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2016 (re-signed 3/5). Missed most of first 3 games with hamstring but thereafter repeated monster numbers, including playoffs, that made him last year's pre-season fantasy #1 RB. If you can handcuff him with Tate (not cheap) who has proven to be explosive in his own right, you have also an injury advantage over owners of most other top-10 fantasy RBs.

2 +0 Richardson, Trent CLE 22.1 7.4 … 1st round, #3 pick in 2012. Probably the best RB to enter the league since Adrian Peterson, Richardson will be a workhorse from Day 1. He has speed and power, can catch the ball out of the backfield, and the Browns have promised to let him carry the full load. No RBBC here. What's not to love?

3 +0 McCoy, LeSean PHI 24.1 5.9 … 2nd round in 2009. Signed through 2017 (extension signed 5/17). Locked up long term with extension signed in May, McCoy is the perfect fit for this offense. Look for fewer TDs than the 20 he had in 2011, and also for there to be a little lighter load, but he's still a top shelf fantasy RB.

4 +0 Rice, Ray BAL 25.6 4.8 … 2nd round in 2008. Has been franchise tagged (3/2). Team would still like to sign him to a long term deal this offseason, but that's becoming less likely. Offensive cornerstone of the team, amassed over 2000 total yards and 15 TDs making him 2011's #1 fantasy RB. OC Cameron has been retained which helps insure stability, but I think drafting of 3rd rounder Bernard Pierce signals some workload reduction.

Tier 2 - Elite talents who will help you win fantasy football championships

5 +0 Mathews, Ryan SD 25.3 5.0 … 1st round, #12 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014. HC Norv Turner has stated more than once in the news this offseason that Mathews will carry the load now that Tolbert has moved on, without much RBBC at all. That has been Norv's way throughout most of his coaching career so believe it, and look for Mathews to have a huge year if he can stay healthy.

6 +0 Peterson, Adrian MIN 27.4 3.4 … 1st round, #7 pick in 2007. Signed through 2017. This future Hall of Famer is still elite at age 27, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty about how ready he'll be to start 2012 after last year's late season ACL tear. He says he's targeting Week 1, and it looks like he'll avoid the PUP list, but it's likely he'll be eased in the first month of the season or so with Gerhart handling more work than normal.

7 +0 Johnson, Chris TEN 26.9 3.8 … 1st round, #24 pick in 2008. Signed through 2016. He had a down year in 2011 due to OL problems and his own conditioning issues following a holdout and shortened pre-season. He just never really got it going and had his worst year. Reports are that he's back in top form this offseason though and ready to regain his CJ2K nickname.

8 +0 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC 27.4 3.4 … 2nd round in 2006. Signed though 2013. Was 343-1606-8 (4.7 ypc) rush and 43-374-3 rec in 2011 and led the NFL in rushing by 242 yards. The 343 carries were a career high and also led NFL. He's been ridden hard, averaging 20.7 carries over 46 games the last three years (that's 332 carries for a 16 game season). You have to wonder, entering his 7th season, how long he can keep up that workload. Given a new HC and OC, and the return of backup Rashad Jennings (instead of 2.1 ypc Deji Karim), my expectation is a reduction of workload into perhaps the 290 carry range.

9 +0 McFadden, Darren OAK 25.0 5.2 … 1st round, #4 pick in 2008. Signed through 2013. Reportedly fully recovered from Lisfranc foot injury, Bush is gone, Taiwan Jones and Mike Goodson are now the primary backups. McFadden puts up great numbers when he can stay on the field, and it would sure be great to see what kind of production he could have over a full healthy season.

10 +0 Lynch, Marshawn SEA 26.4 4.2 … 1st round, #12 pick in 2007. Signed through 2015 (re-signed 3/3). He carried his "beast mode" production on from that memorable 2010 playoff game on through the 2011 season and has now earned himself a nice contract extension. I have some concern that he could be the type of personality, based on past immaturities and offseason weight gains, to relax now that he has his money and may not perform up to high expectations. I'm not predicting this necessarily, but just caveat emptor.

Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside

11 +0 Martin, Doug TB 23.6 6.3 … 1st round, #31 pick in 2012. Martin was drafted in the 1st round to be a workhorse back and should be on the field most of the time. New HC Schiano wants this to be a run-first team and Martin is in position for a lot of carries.

12 +0 Ingram, Mark NO 22.7 7.0 … 1st round, #28 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014. Fantasy owners were disappointed in 2011 production largely due to turf toe and Sproles' big season. Don't be short-sighted, be patient and be rewarded. He has a big career ahead.

13 +0 Stewart, Jonathan CAR 25.5 4.9 … 1st round, #13 pick in 2008. Signed through 2012, then it'll be interesting to see if he stays or moves on as UFA in 2013. Was 142-761-4 (5.4 ypc), 47-413-1 in 2011, under-utilized in the running game for a man with his ability due to the presence of DeAngelo Williams. Cam Newton's record-setting 14 rushing TDs were an aberration and ought to go in part to Stewart this year.

14 +0 Forte, Matt CHI 26.7 4.0 … 2nd round in 2008. Signing of Bush creates a “rotation” as the HC put it, and we'll just have to see how big a bite that takes out of Forte's numbers. One thing is clear to me though. Although he was just about the entire offense in 2011, that will no longer be the case going forward with Bush added at RB and Marshall added at WR. Has been franchise tagged (3/2). Still hopes to get long term contract but playing 2012 under the one-yr tag deal is most likely. July 16 is deadline for signing long term contract, and he has not yet signed franchise tag. Most likely will skip June mandatory mini-camp and this has potential to get nasty after that.

15 +0 Charles, Jamaal KC 25.7 4.7 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2015. Signing of Hillis to a one-year deal hurts his 2012 numbers, and after that one has to wonder about GM Pioli's next move to limit Charles' carries. Seems destined to always be part of a RBBC. Per-carry production is great though, keeping him very valuable.

16 +0 Wells, Beanie ARI 24.1 5.9 … 1st round, #31 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013. Was 245-1047-10 (4.3 ypc), 10-52-0 in 15 games in 2011. Hurt knee in Week 7 and ypc was just 4.0 thereafter. Offseason knee scope shouldn't affect 2012. Unclear how much Ryan Williams might cut into carries but Beanie will remain the lead back.

17 +0 Spiller, C.J. BUF 25.0 5.3 … 1st round, #9 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014. Was 107-561-4 (5.2 ypc), 39-269-2 rec. in 2011. Finished strong in Jackson's absence the final 6 weeks. GM said in January he can be a true workhorse and every down running back. HC Gailey anticipates a timeshare. Says Gailey: "I wouldn't call it 50-50, but it's closer to 50-50 than it ever has been...” Fred Jackson's contract has now been extended and the dynasty owner's concern is if Spiller has to wait two more seasons for full lead role, he'll be 27 by then.

18 +1 Murray, DeMarco DAL 24.6 5.6 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Checkered college career due to injuries and didn't shine in Sr. season, so he wasn't drafted until the 3rd round. Once installed as Cowboys' lead back, had some excellent games before again being hurt. Has a promising future if he can stay healthy, but that so far appears to be a big if. Also worth mentioning - Dallas lost excellent lead blocker Fiammetta and that will matter more than most folks realize.

19 (-1) Wilson, David NYG 21.2 8.1 … 1st round, #32 pick in 2012. Signed through 2015, with a 5th year option. With Brandon Jacobs aging and now gone and Ahmad Bradshaw's foot problems always a worry, the Giants thought it was high time to invest a late first round pick in a RB. Wilson was a standout at Virginia Tech, is very fast, and can catch the ball. Bradshaw will still be the lead back for now, but it'll be RBBC in some fashion and Wilson should become the primary guy sooner or later.

20 +1 Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG 26.5 4.2 … 7th round in 2007. Signed through 2014. With the signing of David Wilson to replace Brandon Jacobs, it's now more like lightning-and-lightning. Both backs are about 200 pounds and fast, but Bradshaw is still just 26 and has a big experience edge so it'll be awhile before he gives the larger share of carries to Wilson, unless (a) the foot problems continue or (b) Wilson just blows the team away with superior ability. Look for RBBC for the next couple years with both backs showing good production.

Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters

21 (-1) Helu, Roy WAS 23.7 6.2 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Dearth of draft picks, used to move up in draft for RG3, helps Helu's chances of keeping lead role. Superior overall talent to Royster, a better runner than Hightower and a fine pass catcher, he should get most of the touches if healthy.

22 +0 Sproles, Darren NO 29.2 2.1 … 4th round in 2005. Signed through 2014. More receiver than runner in this offense, age will become a factor in a couple years. Meantime, he put up great numbers in 2011 and should do so again in 2012.

23 +0 Best, Jahvid DET 23.6 6.3 … 1st round, #30 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014. Fabulous talent and big play ability when on the field, and was having a huge start to 2011 when he got his first concussion last year. Concussion issues are a major concern for his career, and he'll be part of 3-man RBBC in 2012. He's been cleared on the concussion issue for offseason activities now, but you've always got to worry about that next big hit.

24 +0 Mendenhall, Rashard PIT 25.2 5.1 … 1st round, #23 pick in 2008. Signed through 2012. Entering final year of contract. Was 228-928-9 in 15 games, down from 324-1274-13 in 2011. Career and 2011 ypc of just 4.1. Tore ACL in last regular season game of year. Because injury was so late in the season, likely candidate for PUP in 2012 and missing the first 6-8 games. RBs seldom return to full form in first year back from ACL so keep expectations low after that. Redman expected to fill in, and RBBC likely once Mendy is back on the field. Art Rooney II suggested that Mendenhall is still viewed as an offensive nucleus player, but who knows how he'll be viewed in a year. He's a UFA in 2013. He will be just 26 then so I'd expect a starter role for him somewhere if not in PIT.

25 +0 Jackson, Steven STL 29.1 2.2 … 1st round, #24 pick in 2004. Signed through 2013. Workhorse back on a bad team for years, age will catch up to him in the next couple years. Pead was drafted in the 2nd round of 2012 and could begin to take some carries away. The good news is that this s/b an improved overall offense this year with more scoring opportunities.

26 +0 Bush, Reggie MIA 27.5 3.4 … 1st round, #2 pick in 2006. Signed through 2012. Returns as lead back in 2012. 216-1086-6 (5.0 ypc) rush, 43-296-1 rec in 15 games. Injury issues throughout his career, and will have to fend off Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller for lead role at some point, but for 2012 he seems safe.

27 +0 Gore, Frank SF 29.3 2.0 … 3rd round in 2005. Signed through 2014. Has been the face of the offense for several years now, but the drafting of Kendall Hunter and reduction of workload in the latter part of last season, followed by the drafting of LaMichael James in the 2nd round this year, tell us to lower expectations going forward. He's still the primary back, but with a lot more RBBC than he was used to in the past.

28 +1 Vereen, Shane NE 23.5 6.4 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Hamstring injuries much of last season, inactive for most games. Only carries (15) were in Weeks 11 and 12. Patience is recommended. Dynamic college player, should be preferred fantasy bet over Ridley long term. There's some explosive potential here.

29 (-1) Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN 27.2 3.6 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/21). Bengals are about as good a landing spot as BJGE owners could hope for. Pedestrian talent, but has never fumbled in 600+ NFL carries, which is lots more valuable in NFL terms than the average fantasy player realizes. BJGE had 24 TDs in NE offense in 2010-11 and will be the goal line back in CIN. He's likely a 250+ carry back in 2012.

30 +0 Greene, Shonn NYJ 27.0 3.7 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Was 253-1054-6 (4.2 ypc) rush, 30-211-0 rec. in 2011. In final year of contract. Does not create on his own, not a great GL back, not much of a pass catcher. Could see fewer carries in 2012 with McKnight / Tebow more involved. His status as starter is truly year-to-year, with next year's draft possibly providing his replacement.

31 +1 Starks, James GB 26.5 4.1 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Starks looks to be the unquestioned lead back going into the 2012 season. Good pass catcher and all around back, but his bugaboo throughout college and now the pros has been injuries. The Packers are not going to rely as much on the run as most teams so workhorse carries should not be expected.

32 (-1) Brown, Donald IND 25.4 5.0 … 1st round in 2009. Signed through 2013. Largely considered a bust after his first 2 years (3.8 ypc over 207 carries), Brown began 2011 3rd on the depth chart and didn't see a carry until Week 5. By season's end he was getting the larger RBBC share and was outperforming Addai most weeks. Had 134-645-5 (4.8 ypc) on the year. Never more than 16 carries in any one game though, and wildly up and down from game to game with, for example, 16-161-1 followed by 11-35-0 and 8-24-0 to close the season. Despite 4.8 ypc overall, he was under 4.0 in 6 of last 9 games and 4 of last 5. Taken as a whole, and on a bad team, still pretty hard to get too excited about Brown's future. RBBC with D Carter is expected, with Brown getting the larger share.

Tier 5 - Vets with extra downside risk and youth with interesting potential

33 +1 Ridley, Stevan NE 23.6 6.3 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Had 87 carries on the 2011 season. Role began to increase in Weeks 15-17 with 39-210, but fumbles lost the confidence of HC Belichick. Did not play in AFC championship or Super Bowl, but Green-Ellis has now departed. Uncertain extent of his and Vereen's role in 2012, but best guess is heavy RBBC with Vereen the preferred overall fantasy option but Ridley the guy at the goal line.

34 (-1) Pead, Isaiah STL 22.7 7.0 … 2nd round in 2012. Drafted in the 2nd round and a real burner, some say HC Fisher has drafted his Chris Johnson clone (whom he coached with the Titans). If he's the real deal he'll take over for S Jackson in a couple years. Some real potential here.

35 +9 Hillman, Ronnie DEN 21.0 8.3 … 3rd round in 2012. There's been huge fantasy buzz about Hillman, and I'm cautioning not to get too caught up in it. Yes, absolutely he's a dynamic talent and COULD do great things, but he could also end up just another 3rd round smallish change of pace back. I'm reminded of all the Kendall Hunter hype and lots of fantasy owners going gaga and overspending for little real value. McGahee's true heir apparent may be Fannin, or someone in next year's draft, and Hillman may instead be the supplemental back that HC Fox has always loved to have. He was a RBBC coach long before it was fashionable. Just be careful about overspending and going all in on Hillman. The odds are probably against him ever being a top-20 back.

36 +0 James, LaMichael SF 22.9 6.9 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Exceptional talent in college, and HC Harbaugh says he wanted him because when his Stanford teams played Oregon they could never stop the guy. Harbaugh specifically mentioned his ability to get the ball into the end zone when down near the stripe, not normally something mentioned if one is talking about a strictly change of pace back. His long term role is still to be determined I think, but there's a decent chance he can be the guy to take over for Gore as lead back at some point in the next couple years.

37 (-2) Williams, DeAngelo CAR 29.4 2.0 … 1st round, #27 pick in 2006. Signed through 2015. In RBBC which now includes Stewart and Tolbert at FB, age will also become a factor in the next few years. If Stewart leaves in free agency in 2013, or Williams is traded, his stock will rebound some.

38 (-1) Thomas, Daniel MIA 24.8 5.4 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Was 165-581-0 (3.5 ypc) in rookie year. Enters 2nd season behind Bush and awaiting his chance. GM wants him to show more power and durability. Drafting of Lamar Miller in 4th round this year provides additional competition.

39 (-1) Tate, Ben HOU 24.0 6.0 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Drafted to be starter, but injury in rookie year gave Foster his shot. Now Tate is a premium handcuff. Was 175-942-4 (5.4 ypc) in 15 games, but about a third of that production was during the first 3 games when Foster was out or limited. Still productive often enough after that though to be useful in a pinch in fantasy lineups. Also a possible trade candidate at some point before contract expires in 2013 which would boost fantasy value significantly.

40 (-1) Hillis, Peyton KC 26.6 4.0 … 7th round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/14). Signed one-year deal to re-unite with OC Daboll under whom he had great stats with Browns in 2010. Will supplement J Charles as lesser part of RBBC and also get most short yardage / GL duties. Hurts fantasy value of both, especially Hillis. Let's see what happens when he's a FA again in 2013.

41 (-1) Turner, Michael ATL 30.5 1.1 … 5th round in 2004. Signed through 2013. He was 301-1340-11 (4.5 ypc), 17-168-0 in 2011. Struggled much of 2nd half with groin problem. HC Smith indicated workload is to be scaled back in 2012 after 660 carries the last two seasons, including playoffs. Probably has one more good but not great fantasy year in him.

42 +0 Williams, Ryan ARI 22.4 7.2 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. When drafted was expected to share carries with Wells (extent unclear) and work passing downs. Popped patella tendon in pre-season, a tough injury to come back fully from the next year. Reports are he's coming along but as of March 75% recovered. Ranking reflects continued injury risk. Expect change of pace and passing down work in 2012 if he makes it back. Questionable whether lead role is in his future at some point. My guess is no.

43 +0 Redman, Isaac PIT 27.8 3.1 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012 (signed ERFA tender 2/24). Has excelled as Mendenhall's backup. Had 110-479-3 (4.4 ypc) in 2011, and a 4.8 ypc on 52 carries in 2010 (significantly higher ypc than Mendenhall both years). With Mendenhall's Week 17 ACL injury, Redman was 17-121 in WC playoff game also. Likely PUP placement for Mendy, so Redman should start the first 6-8 games and be a significant contributor after that. If he continues to excel while in the starting role, 2013 could see him as a starter in PIT or elsewhere. Note however that he'll turn 29 in Nov of 2013 as he got a relatively late start in the NFL.

44 (-3) Jones, Felix DAL 25.3 5.0 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2008. Signed through 2012. There were rumors the Cowboys had discussed trading him this offseason, adamantly denied by team several times since. Take it FWIW. In the last year of his deal and there have been no extension talks. Murray clearly the starter now, and Jones' chance has come and gone. Career change of pace back going forward it appears.

45 +0 McGahee, Willis DEN 30.9 0.9 … 1st round, #23 pick in 2004. Signed through 2014. Long in tooth but the projected starter for another year, look for rookie Hillman and my favorite sleeper Mario Fannin to eat into his numbers. Moreno is still there but his role and future with team are unclear.

46 +2 LeShoure, Mikel DET 22.4 7.2 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Achilles injury makes him a big question mark. Very difficult injury for a RB to come back from and still have the power he needs. Arrested both in Feb and March 2012 for marijuana. Twice?! Big hit both short-term (suspension possible) and longer term. Team may view character/common sense lacking and decide it's not worth it to trust a big role to such an iffy guy. GM Mayhew said around draft time though that they are not a team that gets too concerned about pot history of players. He was discussing draft, but could be applied to Leshoure as well. I thought his comments were odd but interesting.

Tier 6 – Vets as occasional lineup fillers and youth with uncertain potential

47 +0 Smith, Kevin DET 25.7 4.7 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/27). Will share backfield with Best and Leshoure. All three have injury issues, and this is foremost a passing team. With Leshoure's likely 4-game suspension and if there's another hit to Best's head, Smith could be a surprisingly good value in 2012.

48 (-2) Gerhart, Toby MIN 25.4 4.9 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Should get extensive duty in first half of season at least, as Peterson recovers from ACL injury suffered late in 2011 season. Still up in the air how ready AP will be by game one but likely to be eased in with Gerhart getting lots of work.

49 +1 Miller, Lamar MIA 21.4 8.0 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Was expected by many to be drafted just after the top 3 RBs who went in the 1st round, but lasted instead until the 4th. Still pretty raw in pass protection and not as good between the tackles as he is around the corner, he may never be cut out as a lead back in the NFL. Dolphins are talking about using him this year as a wide receiver a little bit. Time will tell what role he carves out for himself, but I'm seeing folks over-drafting him in rookie drafts for what I think they'll be getting long term.

50 (-1) Green, Alex GB 22.8 6.9 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Was drafted in the 3rd round of 2011 with the idea of him being their pass catching back, possibly more. A mid-season torn ACL ended his season, and he had done little before that (just 3 carries and one catch), so the jury is still out on what the Packers have in him. Starks will start, that much is known, and Grant looks like he'll not be back. Green may battle Brandon Saine for backup duty and is the superior talent if he's recovered sufficiently from the ACL.

51 +0 Bush, Michael CHI 28.2 2.8 … 4th round in 2007. Signed through 2015 (signed 3/22). Arrives as the #2 in CHI and provides security if Forte holds out into the season. Bush dynasty owners were hoping for a better landing spot as this seriously hurts his fantasy prospects assuming Forte remains. Also potentially hurts Forte's numbers depending on Bush's extent of involvement.

52 +0 Jackson, Fred BUF 31.5 0.4 … Undrafted in 2004. Signed through 2014. Age obviously a big concern at 31 1/2 at season's start, plus coming off fractured fibula. Was 3rd leading fantasy RB (PPR) when he went on IR after Week 11, but you'd do well to mostly forget that now. Was to be entering final year of contract, has now been extended through 2014 (5/7). HC Gailey said in January to expect a RBBC in 2012 with Jackson getting something more than 50% of work, but in March there were comments that suggested Spiller may get the greater share.

53 +0 Pierce, Bernard BAL 21.3 8.0 … 3rd round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Will replace retired Ricky Williams as Ray Rice's primary backup and handcuff, and is good enough to take some of the load.

54 +1 Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL 22.6 7.1 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Had 57 rushes and 21 catches in 2011. Role, particularly in passing game, expected to increase in 2012. Snelling returns to share backup duties for another year. I think Quiz is unlikely to ever fill a regular lead role and will always be a change of pace guy, keeping a lid on his upside.

55 +1 Thomas, Pierre NO 27.7 3.2 … Undrafted in 2007. Signed through 2014. I see his role reduced more and more as Ingram takes over ground duties and Sproles excels in passing game. Still, he has a place in this high powered offense and is a valuable replacement should either of those two miss time due to injury.

56 +1 Hunter, Kendall SF 24.0 6.0 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Some are continuing to hope he'll be Gore's eventual replacement as lead back in the next couple years, but I don't see that and never have. He'll get his touches and be a valuable RBBC member, but that's going to be the extent of his role. Rookie LaMichael James stands a much better chance at being lead dog once Gore is through in my opinion, though that's pretty iffy too.

57 +1 Turbin, Robert SEA 22.7 6.9 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Turbin had a nice college career at Utah State, but lacks long term lead back potential in the NFL it appears and was drafted in the 4th round. He'll be a nice handcuff to Marshawn Lynch if needed.

58 +1 Fannin, Mario DEN 24.7 5.4 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013, RFA in 2014. This is my deep sleeper pick for 2012 and beyond, and as with most deep sleeper picks, it might amount to nothing and he ends up back in the rankings pile of nobodies. Just keep Fannin's name in the back of your mind in case things start to unfold for him. The drafting of Hillman doesn't change things in my mind. McGahee is old, HC Fox likes RBBC, and I could definitely see a Fannin / Hillman combo once McGahee is done. He's 5'10” 231 lb, runs a sub-4.4 40, and has excellent pass catching ability. Per 4/15 National Football Post: “...another player could be getting quite a bit of attention come September. One of my sources inside the team headquarters at Dove Valley tells me to keep an eye on Mario Fannin. The 2011 undrafted free agent ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine and weighs 235. He was the team’s best running back in camp last year until he suffered a season-ending ankle injury. The Broncos have high hopes for Fannin, and wouldn’t be surprised if he played a major role in 2012.”

59 +4 Polk, Chris PHI 22.7 7.0 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/29 as UDFA. Surprisingly went undrafted in 2012 when most draftnicks had him as the 4th or 5th RB to go off the board, perhaps in the 2nd round. This ranking reflects some faith in that pre-draft talent evaluation. Though behind RBs McCoy and probably Dion Lewis on the depth chart, all it would take is a RB injury somewhere in the league and a cheap trade and you could have your next undrafted FA made good.

60 (-6) McKnight, Joe NYJ 24.4 5.7 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Had just 56 touches in 2011. With Tomlinson's departure and Greene's pedestrian ability, NYJ beat writer Cimini suggests increased role in 2012. Must hold off fellow 4th rounder (2011) Powell for #2 job first, but Powell gave little reason for optimism with his 2011 showing. Recent news of gaining 15 "power" pounds eating at McDonalds was puzzling. McKnight may think it a positive, this added McDonalds power, but it caused me to drop him a couple notches in my rankings. Connecting the dots, I still recall how badly out of shape he was at the start of his rookie training camp in 2010 and this recent lifestyle revelation doesn't seem encouraging to me.

61 +3 Carter, Delone IND 25.2 5.1 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. He was 101-377-2 (3.7 ypc) in rookie 2011 season. Had double-digit carries often in 1st half of season but not once in 2nd half. Fantasy buzz faded as role diminished with overall lack of production and fumbling issues, and Brown/Addai took over. Some promise still though, as evidenced by Week 7/8 against NO & TEN – a combined 19-135-1 (7.1 ypc). Should be the minor part of RBBC with Brown in 2012 as Addai has moved on.

62 (-1) Tolbert, Mike CAR 26.8 3.9 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2015 (signed 3/19). Signed through 2015 (signed 3/19). Puzzling on the surface that he'd choose to sign here to play FB after having success in San Diego running and receiving, but he says he took $1 mil less to be in Carolina so he could raise his daughter in the South -- it's a quality of life issue for him, so who can argue? Joins a crowded backfield with Williams and Stewart, but if one of those moves on before the 2013 season, Tolbert's value again rises. From the Panthers' standpoint he's a nice insurance policy in case they can't re-sign Stewart.

Tier 7 - Talent may be there but it'll be an uphill climb to fantasy relevance

63 +2 Moreno, Knowshon DEN 25.1 5.2 … 1st round, #12 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013, team option for 2014. Some speculation he's a candidate for release after disappointing 3 years, ACL injury in November, and February DUI. Denver Post suggests (4/6) he may begin season on PUP. Drafting of Hillman and the fact that they reportedly love Fannin are more indications that Moreno is not in Denver's plans. So why own him in dynasty? He's just 25, a former 1st round #12 overall pick, and the possibility of opportunity wherever he lands next.

64 +2 Blount, LeGarrette TB 25.7 4.7 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012 (signed ERFA tender 4/4). Drafting of rookie Doug Martin as 3 down back relegates Blount to clear backup status. If he ever is featured again it will be in a different uniform. Those who overpaid for him in dynasty after his rookie year can only hope for such a change.

65 (-5) Scott, Bernard CIN 28.6 2.6 … 6th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Change of pace back who started NFL career at late age and is now 28. Had 112 rushes in 2011 ( up from 61 the year before), but just a 3.4 ypc (down from 4.9 ypc the year before). Benson's departure and signing of Green-Ellis leaves him in about the same role. Carries could increase into 150+ range in 2012 though.

66 +2 Hightower, Tim WAS 26.3 4.3 … 5th round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 5/13). Signed through 2012 (re-signed 5/13). ACL surgery last November. Will compete for snaps with Royster behind Helu. Was the starter when he went down with injury last year and is the team's best pass protector. For this reason, given the fact that the QB is a rookie, Hightower could see the field a lot.

67 +2 Jennings, Rashad JAC 27.4 3.4 … 7th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Curiously placed on IR after a pre-season injury that never required surgery and Jennings himself said he was cleared medically in mid-October. He was to have been Jones-Drew's handcuff, and expectation was perhaps take 100-150 carries given MJD's own knee issues entering last season. Had a 5.5 ypc on 84 carries in 2010 and 5.2 ypc on 39 carries in 2009, so he's productive when given the chance. I would expect MJD's load to be reduced in 2012 and Jennings to get something in the 100 carry range, and be a solid MJD injury replacement if needed.

68 +3 Goodson, Mike OAK 25.3 5.0 … 4th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Traded to OAK 3/30. Trade doesn't really change much of anything long term, but does maybe give him a bit more 2012 value competing with Taiwan Jones as McFadden's backup. He's still a free agent after 2012 and his real value will depend on where he is long term and what opportunity it represents. Had some good production in Carolina in 2010 both as runner and receiver when given a chance, and could find fantasy value in new digs if things break right. He's a fumbler though, so that hurts his chances of getting a significant role.

69 (-7) Jones, Taiwan OAK 24.1 5.9 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Bush leaving may create opportunity. Speedster but without the greatest RB skills, a valuable handcuff to oft-injured McFadden if he can earn #2 role. Raiders traded for RB Mike Goodson though so we'll have to see how roles shake out in pre-season. Oakland beat writer believes Goodson is the better fit.

70 +2 Ivory, Chris NO 24.4 5.7 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012, RFA in 2013. Signed through 2012, RFA in 2013. Solid power back, not much of a receiver. Has done well with his opportunities in the past. Still young but he's down the depth chart, and his best hope is a chance elsewhere once his time in New Orleans is done. That could be as soon as 2013, so keep an eye on his situation.

71 (-4) Royster, Evan WAS 24.8 5.4 … 6th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Had a pair of 100 yard games late in season with Helu out. Shanny said good things about him in January and his place in the rotation appears to be secure, but re-signing of Hightower doesn't help him, and Royster's lack of speed and wiggle most likely relegate him to career backup duty.

72 +2 Dwyer, Jonathan PIT 23.1 6.7 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2012, RFA in 2013. Despite a big college career, was a 6th round pick due to conditioning concerns and has done little in NFL outside of 111 yard game in Week 5 of 2011 highlighted by a 76 yard run. Active in just 7 games of 2011 (his 2nd season), not a good sign. Not generally considered a potential starter talent, but with Mendenhall's likely placement on PUP, Dwyer may get a chance to show more. He should be the #2 guy behind Redman, one injury away from starting and perhaps a chance to resurrect career.

73 +2 Ringer, Javon TEN 25.6 4.8 … 5th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Handcuff to C Johnson last season, has run the ball well in his limited chances. Somewhat unclear if he'll maintain #2 role over Harper. Free agent after 2012, maybe there's hope for him elsewhere if some team thinks they see more in him.

74 +3 McCluster, Dexter KC 23.9 6.0 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. He's been a hybrid RB/WR during his two NFL seasons, and was used more at RB last year after Jamaal Charles went down with an ACL. With Charles' return plus the addition of Peyton Hillis this year, however, the Chiefs are looking to use McCluster more as a receiver in 2012. He'll never be more than a role player.

75 NR Jackson, Brandon CLE 26.9 3.8 … 2nd round in 2007. Signed through 2012. Signed in 2011 to be 3rd down back but landed on IR before season began. Returns in 2012 and looks to be Richardson's primary backup with some 3rd down duty as well. Forgotten man by fantasy people because he was gone all of last year but was the feature back for GB after Grant went down at the start of 2010 and had 190 carries, 43 catches, and over 1000 total yards.

76 (-3) Powell, Bilal NYJ 23.8 6.1 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Played just 2 games (13 carries) in 2011. In possible competition with McKnight as Greene's backup with Tomlinson leaving, but showed little in 2011 other than a penchant for fumbling. It's early in his career though and things could change. Given the lack of overall talent in the Jets' backfield, opportunity would seem to be there if he could prove he has the ability.

77 +4 Harper, Jamie TEN 23.0 6.8 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Pedestrian runner, likely to be C Johnson's handcuff if Ringer leaves after 2012. This year it's uncertain who will have that role.

78 +0 Saine, Brandon GB 23.7 6.2 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. Packers seem to like him and he looks to compete with Alex Green for backup duty behind Starks.

79 (-3) Ballard, Vick IND 22.1 7.4 … 5th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Looks to be #3 on the depth chart behind Brown and Carter.

80 (-1) Addai, Joseph NE 29.3 2.0 … 1st round, #30 pick in 2006. Signed through 2012 (signed 5/5). Released 3/9 as part of general housecleaning by Colts. 118-433-1 (3.7 ypc) in 12 games in 2011. Plagued by injuries each of last two years, became lesser part of RBBC with Donald Brown. Will have a backup/complementary role with some 3rd down work in New England if he makes the final roster.

Tier 8 - Under-26 longshots maybe worth a stash at the end of your bench

81 (-11) Hardesty, Montario CLE 25.6 4.8 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Drafted to be starter, hurt and on IR before rookie season began. Only 88 carries and 3.0 ypc in 2011, plagued by injuries again, and had fallen to #3 behind Ogbonnaya. Hillis is gone, but the drafting of Richardson and the return of Brandon Jackson from injury reprtedly puts Hardesty's roster spot in jeopardy.

82 +2 Rainey, Chris PIT 24.5 5.6 … 5th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Scatback with pass catching skills, looks to fill role formerly held by Mewelde Moore.

83 +0 Lewis, Dion PHI 21.9 7.6 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Some suggest him as a sleeper, but I don't see how a RB buried behind 24 year old McCoy and locked up for the next 3 years can be much more than a handcuff.

84 +4 Herron, Dan CIN 23.4 6.4 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Pedestrian back taken in the 6th round, best argument for him is that the starter is also a pedestrian back who was a UDFA.

85 +4 Ganaway, Terrance NYJ 23.9 6.1 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Probably not a lot to see here, but he's the kind of big guy the Jets like for their ground and pound running game. Shonn Greene is in the last year of his contract.

86 (-4) White, Johnny BUF 24.6 5.6 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Had 12 carries in 2011, and just 4 carries after Jackson was injured in Week 11. There doesn't appear to be much upside here with 25 y.o. Spiller ahead of him.

87 (-1) Gray, Cyrus KC 22.8 6.9 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

88 +2 Smith, Michael TB 24.1 6.0 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

89 +7 Richardson, Daryl STL 22.4 7.2 … 7th round In 2012. Signed through 2015.

90 (-5) Morris, Alfred WAS 23.7 6.2 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

91 +0 Scott, Da'Rel NYG 24.3 5.8 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Drafting of Wilson kills hope of fantasy value any time soon, though Bradshaw's feet always make him a risk.

92 (-5) Todman, Jordan MIN 22.5 7.1 … 6th round in 2011. Signed through 2013. Drafted by SD but released, unclear whether he has a role in MIN yet. Excellent college career, I'd love to see him in a Sproles role somewhere as I think he'd be productive.

93 (-1) Allen, Anthony BAL 24.1 5.9 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Had 3 carries in 2011. Possible role as Rice's #2 ended with drafting of Bernard Pierce. More of a short yardage back, with little receiving prowess.

94 +1 Baker, Edwin SD 21.3 8.1 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

95 (-2) Brown, Bryce PHI 21.3 8.0 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

96 (-2) Batch, Baron PIT 24.7 5.5 … 7th round 2011. Signed through 2014. Looked upon as possible replacement for Mewelde Moore as 3rd down back, Batch tore his ACL in pre-season 2011. Moore is now gone but it's uncertain how much Batch figures in their plans after the drafting of Chris Rainey for the same role.

97 +2 Clay, John PIT 24.7 5.5 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013, ERFA in 2014. Productive Wisconsin career. Promoted to roster Week 16 of 2011 after most of season on practice squad, had 10 carries. Big 230 pound bruiser. Any PIT RB is worth a look with Mendenhall out.

98 (-1) Miller, Lonyae OAK 24.3 5.7 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed one-year reserve/future contract for 2012.

99 (-1) Poole, Tauren CAR 22.9 6.8 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/30 as UDFA

100 +0 Tanner, Phillip DAL 24.1 6.0 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed undisclosed contract in 2011.

Rosterable in a pinch, 40 players not ranked -- listed by draft year

999 NR Meggett, Davin HOU 22.4 7.2 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed as UDFA 5/14.
999 NR Bolden, Brandon NE 22.6 7.1 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed as UDFA 5/10.
999 NR Rainey, Bobby BAL 24.9 5.3 … Undrafted in 2012.
999 NR Alexander, Alvester CHI 21.9 7.6 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/29 as UDFA
999 NR Hampton, Jewel SF 22.7 7.0 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 5/4 as UDFA
999 NR Dunbar, Lance DAL 22.6 7.0 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/30 as UDFA
999 NR Berry, Damien BAL 23.9 6.1 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed 1-year reserve/future contract for 2012. Had nice pre-season 2011, spent year on BAL practice squad.
999 NR Evans, Darren IND 23.8 6.1 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed 1-year reserve/future contract for 2012. Mostly on practice squad, was on active roster a couple of weeks when Addai was out, but had no stats. Had a nice pre-season. Started ahead of Ryan Williams at Va Tech as Sr. and was a 1,200+ yarder as Fr. before tearing ACL. Colts RBs are no great shakes. Who knows, maybe possible sleeper here, bur still a long shot.
999 NR Harris, DuJuan JAC 24.0 6.0 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed undisclosed contract. Supplanted Karim as MJD's backup by season's end and had 9 carries. In December, OC (at the time, now in ATL) Koetter said Harris "might be the most improved player we have on offense." Return of Rashad Jennings makes Harris the #3 at best.
999 NR Dixon, Anthony SF 24.9 5.3 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Had a nice college career but has disappointed in SF. Best chance would be in another location when the times comes.
999 NR Karim, Deji IND 25.8 4.7 … 6th round in 2010. Claimed of waivers by IND 4/30. Cut by JAC 4/27. Showed promise in limited duty in rookie year, but when called upon to be MJD's backup in 2011 struggled horribly with just a 2.1 ypc on 63 carries. Lost #2 job to DuJuan Harris and was a healthy scratch the last 2 weeks of season. Little sleeper potential at this time.
999 NR Williams, Keiland DET 26.1 4.5 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012, RFA in 2013.
999 NR Bell, Joique DET 26.1 4.4 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012, RFA in 2013.
999 NR Smith, Alfonso ARI 25.6 4.8 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012. Had 30 carries in 2011, 17 of them in Week 3. Just a guy.
999 NR Brown, Andre NYG 25.7 4.7 … 4th round in 2009. Signed a reserve/future contract for 2012. Had been expected to be suspended 4 games at start of 2012 season for PEDs , but that has been lifted.
999 NR Casey, James (TE-MFL) HOU 27.9 3.0 … 5th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Has shown flashes when given the chance, but primarily FB on depth chart (some have him listed as TE, some as FB). Unclear whether he'll ever have greater role than he does now.
999 NR Peerman, Cedric CIN 25.9 4.6 … 6th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. Special teamer and career backup. Just 4 career carries.
999 NR Ogbonnaya, Chris CLE 26.3 4.3 … 7th round in 2009. Signed through 2012, ERFA in 2013. Filled in nicely when called on, and had 109 and 134 total yards when featured in Weeks 10 & 11. On season, 76-340-1 (4.5 ypc) and 23 catches. Drafting of Richardson and return of Brandon Jackson put him 3rd or 4th on depth chart depending on what they do with Hardesty. Though Ogbon is unlikely to ever be a regular starter, he's made people notice. ERFA in 2013 though so he's not going anywhere for awhile.
999 NR Stephens-Howling, LaRod ARI 25.4 5.0 … 7th round in 2009. Signed through 2012 (signed RFA tender 4/16). Had 43 rushes and 13 catches in 14 games in 2011. Not expected to be a significant contributor in 2012 assuming Ryan Williams returns healthy.
999 NR Johnson, Jeremiah DEN 25.5 4.8 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012, ERFA in 2013. Got some playing time in 2011, could be in the mix in 2012 with McGahee getting up in years and Moreno's future with team uncertain. Likely behind Fannin and Hillman though.
999 NR Brinkley, Curtis SD 26.9 3.8 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012, RFA in 2013.
999 NR Bell, Kahlil CHI 25.7 4.7 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012 (signed RFA tender 4/25). Signing of Bush drops him to #3, but he'll be a UFA after 2012 and did well as Forte's replacement late in 2011.
999 NR Slaton, Steve MIA 26.7 4.0 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/15). Spent one season in MIA and had just 17 carries, and returns for another presumably small role. That 268-1282-9 (4.8 ypc) and 50 reception 2009 rookie year now seems so long ago. Re-signing in MIA ends deep sleeper possibility I had mentioned in a previous version of this note.
999 NR Choice, Tashard BUF 27.8 3.2 … 4th round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/24). In 2008-10 he was 222-1064-8 (4.8 ypc) for the Cowboys. Spent time with DAL, WAS, and BUF in 2011, didn't distinguish himself anywhere (2.67 ypc on 57 carries). At age 27 in 2012, expect a minimal role competing for the #3 job.
999 NR Torain, Ryan -- 26.1 4.5 … 5th round in 2008. UFA=>??? Has had a strange career, from 100-yard games to out of football, two different times. Let's see if he lands on his feet again somewhere. So far I've heard not a peep about him. He's a Facebook friend of mine and he appears content to do stuff relating to Arizona University.
999 NR Forsett, Justin HOU 26.9 3.8 … 7th round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 6/2). Replaces Derrick Ward as RB3, but will see little action behind Foster and Tate, mostly in passing situations.
999 NR Ball, Lance DEN 27.2 3.6 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2012. Hopes to compete for #2 job behind McGahee. Has done OK with opportunities but future is limited to backup duty, and Fannin and Hillman may push him off roster.
999 NR Messam, Jerome MIA 27.4 3.4 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2014. Has been playing in CFL. Rushed for 1,057 yards in 2011 and was named the CFL’s outstanding Canadian as well as a league all-star. Off field issues resulted in prior suspension.
999 NR Lumpkin, Kregg SEA 28.3 2.8 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/23). Pass catching back, will compete to replace Forsett. Drafting of Turbin probably pushes him to #3 at best.
999 NR Reece, Marcel OAK 27.2 3.6 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed ERFA tender for 2012. With Bush gone fullback Reece may get some short yardage and GL work, and is a fine pass catcher out of the backfield.
999 NR Woodhead, Danny NE 27.6 3.3 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2012. Had 95 touches in 2012, down from 131 in 2010. Signed through 2012. Role likely to decrease further in 2012 as Vereen and Ridley get more involved, and Addai gets involved.
999 NR Leonard, Brian CIN 28.6 2.6 … 2nd round in 2007. Signed through 2012. Limited role player with 30-40 touches per year.
999 NR McClain, Le'Ron SD 27.7 3.2 … 4th round in 2007. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/14). Will serve as RB/FB and should get few carries. Don't expect Tolbert-like sharing with Mathews, who should see a workhorse load. Brinkley is still there, and 7th rounder Baker was added in the draft.
999 NR Snelling, Jason ATL 28.7 2.5 … 7th round in 2007. Signed through 2014 (re-signed 3/8). Was 44-151-0, 26-179-1 in 2011. Quiz Rodgers cut into workload. Tested free agent market before 2011 and found no takers so returned to ATL on one-year deal. Signed for 3 years this time, will likely play a lot of FB.
999 NR Battle, Jackie -- 28.9 2.3 UFA=>SD?? Undrafted in 2007.
999 NR Ware, D J “Danny” NYG 27.5 3.3 … Undrafted in 2007. Still to be determined where he ends up on depth chart, but definitely behind Bradshaw and Wilson, possibly Scott too.
999 NR Benson, Cedric -- 29.7 1.7 UFA=>OAK? 1st round, #4 pick in 2005. Had 273-1067-6 in 15 games in 2011. Has been a workhorse the last 3 years, averaging 20 carries per game over the last 3 seasons. His ypc hasn't reached 4.0 either of the last two seasons, however. Turning 30 before the end of the 2012 season, the market for his services hasn't developed to date. Someone will sign him but his 300 carry seasons are over. He expressed interest in OAK.
999 NR Jacobs, Brandon SF 30.2 1.4 … 4th round in 2005. Signed through 2012. Hard to see him carving out a very big role with Gore, James and Hunter also in the mix. Should spell the end for Anthony Dixon though.
999 (-21) Grant, Ryan -- 29.7 1.7 UFA=>??? Undrafted in 2005. Earlier thought to return to the Packers for another year to share duties with Starks, that now appears to be dead. He's looking for work.
999 NR Kuhn, John GB 30.0 1.5 … Undrafted in 2005. Signed through 2013. Some goal line / short yardage stuff.



WIDE RECEIVERS

Rk, Rk Chg, Player Name, Team, Age (at 9/1/12), QYR, Notes

Tier 1 - Crème de la crème core players -- acquire them and hold on tight

1 +0 Johnson, Calvin DET 26.9 5.6 … 1st round, #2 pick in 2007. Signed through 2019 (extension signed 3/13). Taking into account likely voided years, contract is probably really through 2017.

2 +0 Nicks, Hakeem NYG 23.8 8.1 … 1st round, #29 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013.

3 +0 Green, A.J. CIN 24.1 7.8 … 1st round, #4 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014.

4 +0 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI 29.0 3.9 … 1st round, #3 pick in 2004. Signed through 2018.

5 +0 Jones, Julio ATL 23.6 8.2 … 1st round, #6 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014.

6 +0 Jennings, Greg GB 28.9 3.9 … 2nd round in 2006. Signed through 2012.

Tier 2 - Elite talents who will help you win fantasy football championships

7 +0 Bryant, Dez DAL 23.8 8.0 … 1st round, #24 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014.

8 +0 Harvin, Percy MIN 24.3 7.7 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013. Offseason shoulder surgery to remove bone spurs is a non-issue.

9 +1 Britt, Kenny TEN 24.0 7.9 … 1st round, #30 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013.

10 +2 Nelson, Jordy GB 27.3 5.3 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2014.

11 (-2) Blackmon, Justin JAC 22.6 9.0 … 1st round, #5 pick in 2012.

12 (-1) Wallace, Mike PIT 26.1 6.2 RFA=>PIT 3rd round in 2009. Does not appear he's signing his RFA tender anytime soon. This is likely to extend through OTAs but if he doesn't sign by 6/15 his tender reduces from 2.7 mil to 577K, so we'll see a signing by that time. A long term contract is not probable. A trade remains a slim possibility, though it's most likely he plays under the RFA tender in 2012 and is either a UFA or franchise tagged in 2013.

13 +0 Cruz, Victor NYG 25.8 6.4 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013.

14 +0 Bowe, Dwayne KC 27.9 4.7 … 1st round, pick #23 in 2007. Franchise tagged 3/5.

15 +0 Thomas, Demaryius DEN 24.7 7.3 … 1st round, #22 pick in 2010. Signed through 2014.

Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside

16 +1 Johnson, Andre HOU 31.1 2.2 … 1st round, #3 pick in 2003. Signed through 2016.

17 +1 Marshall, Brandon CHI 28.4 4.4 … 4th round in 2006. Signed through 2014. Now on his 3rd team by the age of 28, lots of personal conduct baggage preceeds him. Re-united with Cutler as they once were in Denver where he was a 100 catch WR.

18 (-2) Jackson, Vincent TB 29.6 3.4 … 2nd round in 2005. Signed through 2016 (signed 3/13). Might not be as productive per play as he was in SD, but I expect targets and overall stats to rise.

19 +0 White, Roddy ATL 30.8 2.4 … 1st round, #29 pick in 2009. Signed through 2014.

20 +0 Johnson, Steve BUF 26.1 6.2 … 7th round in 2008. Signed through 2016 (re-signed 3/5).

21 +3 Maclin, Jeremy PHI 24.3 7.6 … 1st round, #19 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013.

22 (-1) Austin, Miles DAL 28.2 4.6 … Undrafted in 2006. Signed through 2016.

23 +0 Floyd, Michael ARI 22.8 8.9 … 1st round, #13 pick in 2012.

24 (-2) Colston, Marques NO 29.2 3.7 … 7th round in 2006. Signed through 2016 (re-signed 3/13). Long term re-signing is good news for Saints and fantasy owners. Should continue to be productive WR in high powered offense. Strong 2011 finish eases concerns about knees somewhat.

25 +1 Welker, Wes NE 31.3 2.0 … Undrafted in 2004. Signed through 2012 (signed 5/15). Franchise tagged 3/5. No progress on long term deal so far (5/15).

26 +4 Quick, Brian STL 23.2 8.5 … 2nd round in 2012.

27 (-2) Wright, Kendall TEN 22.8 8.8 … 1st round, #20 in 2012.

28 +0 Jackson, DeSean PHI 25.8 6.5 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2016. New 5-year deal alleviates speculation about future. Note however that once the contract is boiled down to its essence, the Eagles can easily cut ties after 2013 if things aren't going to their liking. Hopefully now that the contract distraction is over he can get back to concentrating on football, something he did not do at times last year.

29 +6 Little, Greg CLE 23.3 8.5 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

30 (-1) Decker, Eric DEN 25.5 6.7 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Should have a breakout season and bright future as long as P Manning's neck holds up. Team plans to move him around a lot and take advantage of match ups. Manning seems to love him.

Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters

31 +0 Smith, Torrey BAL 23.6 8.2 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

32 +0 Crabtree, Michael SF 25.0 7.1 … 1st round, #10 pick in 2009. Signed through 2014.

33 (-6) Rice, Sidney SEA 26.0 6.3 … 2nd round in 2007. Signed through 2015.

34 (-1) Meachem, Robert SD 27.9 4.8 … 1st round, pick #27 in 2007. Signed through 2015 (signed 3/13). About as good a landing spot as fantasy owners could have hoped for, replacing the role of VJax with Rivers throwing to him. Fast and athletic but never rose to heights expected when drafted by Saints where he was always a situational receiver. Will he become a stud WR with Chargers? My sense says not to the degree some will expect, but time will tell.

35 +1 Moore, Denarius OAK 23.7 8.1 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

36 (-2) Brown, Antonio PIT 24.1 7.8 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013.

37 +1 Hill, Stephen NYJ 21.4 10.0 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Rex Ryan stated he expects Hill to start right away.

38 (-1) Garcon, Pierre WAS 26.1 6.2 … 6th round in 2008. Signed through 2016 (signed 3/13). Paid WR1 money and expected to be Skins WR1. Run after catch ability fits west coast offense, but I'm skeptical he has WR1 talent to overcome double-teams.

39 +0 Smith, Steve CAR 33.3 0.5 … 3rd round in 2001. Signed through 2014 (signed extension 4/10). Renaissance in 2011 with Newton at 79-1394-7. Said in January he's good for another 4 years. We'll see. Age is definitely an issue, but extension shows some faith by team.

40 +2 Lloyd, Brandon NE 31.2 2.2 … 4th round in 2003. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/17). Re-unites with OC McDaniels once again. Will take Branch and some of other WR / Hernandez targets and makes a superior offense all the more dangerous.

41 +0 Holmes, Santonio NYJ 28.5 4.3 … 1st round, #25 pick in 2006. Signed through 2015.

42 (-2) Jeffery, Alshon CHI 22.5 9.0 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

43 +1 Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK 25.5 6.7 … 1st round, #7 pick in 2009. Signed through 2013. Local beat writer expects Hey-Bey to have a 1,000 yard season.

44 +4 Baldwin, Jonathan KC 23.1 8.6 … 1st round, #26 pick in 2011. Signed through 2014.

45 (-2) Jenkins, A.J. SF 21.8 9.6 … 1st round, #30 pick in 2012.

46 (-1) Cobb, Randall GB 23.7 8.2 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

47 (-1) Collie, Austin IND 26.8 5.7 … 4th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.

48 (-1) Young, Titus DET 23.0 8.7 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

Tier 5 - Vets with extra downside risk and youth with interesting potential

49 +1 Randle, Rueben NYG 21.3 10.0 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

50 +1 Broyles, Ryan DET 24.4 7.6 … 2nd round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

51 (-2) Williams, Mike TB 25.3 6.9 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Lots of whispers of immaturity, partying, and lack of dedication affecting performance in 2011. This comes following an outstanding rookie year but also a checkered college career (again, maturity issues). Look for new coaching staff to either make a positive difference of we'll see Williams' fantasy value on a rapid decline after 2012.

52 +0 Bess, Davone MIA 27.0 5.5 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2013.

53 +1 Robinson, Laurent JAC 27.3 5.3 … 3rd round in 2007. Signed through 2016. LRob had a 4 year history of injuries and failed expectations before last year. Became a favorite of Romo, had by far his best season as #3 in DAL against nickel backs with coverage taken away by better WRs. It's a different world though being a #1 and getting the double-teams. One of worst GMs in NFL threw $32 mil at him, one of worst QBs in NFL will be throwing footballs to him. Keep expectations in check.

54 (-1) Givens, Chris STL 22.7 8.9 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

55 +1 Sanu, Mohamed CIN 23.0 8.7 … 3rd round in 2012.

56 (-1) Hankerson, Leonard WAS 24.3 7.6 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Looks to be penciled in as starter on the outside over Morgan.

57 +0 Wayne, Reggie IND 33.8 0.1 … 1st round, pick #30 in 2001. Signed through 2014 (re-signed 3/13). Nearly 34 and slowing, but will provide Luck with an experienced possession receiver to help ease transition. I look for Wayne to fulfill maybe one, probably two years of new contract before hanging 'em up.

58 +3 LaFell, Brandon CAR 25.8 6.4 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Looking to fill #2 role next year, will need to compete with returning Gettis.

59 (-1) Brown, Vincent SD 23.6 8.2 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

60 (-1) Boldin, Anquan BAL 31.9 1.6 … 2nd round in 2003. Signed through 2013.

61 +8 Simpson, Jerome MIN 26.6 5.8 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 4/24). Looks to be penciled in as the WR2 opposite Harvin. Pleaded guilty to a felony drug count of "prohibited act relating to a controlled substance" earlier, and NFL has issued a 3 game suspension to start 2012.

62 (-2) Floyd, Malcom SD 31.0 2.3 … Undrafted in 2004. Signed through 2012.

63 +4 Hartline, Brian MIA 25.8 6.5 … 4th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.

64 (-1) Tate, Golden SEA 24.1 7.8 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

65 +9 Ford, Jacoby OAK 25.1 7.0 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

66 +30 Sanders, Emmanuel PIT 25.5 6.7 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013.

67 +1 Moore, Lance NO 29.0 3.9 … Undrafted in 2005. Signed through 2015.

68 (-4) Manningham, Mario SF 26.3 6.1 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (signed 3/17). May replace departed Josh Morgan in starting lineup opposite Crabtree unless R Moss relegates him to #3 duty.

69 (-7) Toon, Nick NO 23.8 8.0 … 4th round in 2012.

Tier 6 – Vets as occasional lineup fillers and youth with uncertain potential

70 (-4) Jones, Marvin CIN 22.5 9.1 … 5th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

71 +1 Graham, T.J. BUF 23.1 8.6 … 3rd round in 2012.

72 +1 Massaquoi, Mohamed CLE 25.8 6.5 … 2nd round in 2009. Signed through 2012.

73 +11 Avery, Donnie IND 28.2 4.5 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/23). There is still upside here as a speedy deep threat, possible #2. Was 1st WR taken in 2008 draft and a starter as recently as preseason 2010, before the ACL injury.

74 (-3) Hilton, Ty IND 22.8 8.8 … 3rd round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Quote from GM: “When you get a great player like that, that is electric like that, it is fun,” said GM Ryan Grigson. “Sometimes you’ve got to go up and grab those guys. He is a little bit undersized and the history is that those types of guys with his size, they may be there in (round) four, but it’s not a certainty. … He really can fit us in the slot with a lot of things Bruce (Arians) does. We’ve had this guy targeted for a long time.”

75 +2 Childs, Greg MIN 22.5 9.1 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

76 +10 Thomas, Mike JAC 25.2 6.9 … 4th round in 2009. Signed through 2015. After signing a 5-year contract, star faded last year amid QB Gabbert's struggles and reported conflicts with now-fired QB coach Cox. Said to have “given up” last year, Thomas could be in line for a rebound season in the slot this year.

77 +1 Bennett, Earl CHI 25.4 6.7 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2015.

78 (-8) Baldwin, Doug SEA 23.9 7.9 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. RFA in 2014.

79 +1 Amendola, Danny STL 26.8 5.6 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed RFA tender 4/25). Slot role again, likely sharing duties with Salas. Will not have the high number of receptions he had two years ago when then-rookie Bradford relied heavily on him.

80 (-4) Jones, James GB 28.4 4.4 … 3rd round in 2007. Signed through 2013.

81 +28 Jean, Lestar HOU 24.6 7.4 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. RFA in 2014. Has a good shot to win 3rd WR job this year with Jacoby Jones cut. HC Kubiak said "We've got a couple of kids that we think a lot of, Lestar Jean being number one."

82 (-7) Posey, DeVier HOU 23.5 8.3 … 3rd round in 2012.

83 (-4) Benn, Arrelious TB 24.0 7.9 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

84 (-3) Nelson, David BUF 25.8 6.4 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013.

85 (-2) Washington, Nate TEN 29.0 3.9 … Undrafted in 2005. Signed through 2014.

86 +1 Jones, Donald BUF 24.7 7.3 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013. In line to return as starter in 2012 opposite Stevie Johnson. Faces competition from Easley if he can ever stay healthy.

87 +1 Royal, Eddie SD 26.3 6.1 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/15). Had 91 catches as rookie in DEN in 2008, but role in SD likely to be limited to return duty and slot duty. Limited fantasy value here as 4th WR and also behind productive TE and RBs.

88 NR Moss, Santana WAS 33.3 0.5 … 1st round, #16 pick in 2001. Signed through 2013.

89 (-4) Caldwell, Andre DEN 27.4 5.2 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (signed 3/21). Should serve as #3 and have some fantasy value.

90 NR Moss, Randy SF 35.5 -1.3 … 1st round, pick #21 in 1998. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/12). Lots of buzz about his coming out of retirement. Keep expectations low. He was essentially a decoy two years ago and I wouldn't expect much more at 35 after being out of the game for a year. No guaranteed money, SF can cut him before the start of the season without it costing them a penny.

91 +8 Jones, Jacoby BAL 28.1 4.6 … 3rd round in 2007. Signed through 2013 (signed 5/8). Cut by HOU 5/1. Will serve as WR3 for Ravens. Not much here, as RB and two TEs will see more passes.

92 (-1) Gettis, David CAR 25.0 7.1 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. On IR in 2011, started over LaFell in 2010. Competition for #2 should be interesting but LaFell appears to have edge..

93 (-3) Burleson, Nate DET 31.0 2.3 … 3rd round in 2003. Signed through 2014.

Tier 7 - Talent may be there but it'll be an uphill climb to fantasy relevance

94 (-2) Avant, Jason PHI 29.4 3.6 … 4th round in 2006. Signed through 2014.

95 (-1) Morgan, Josh WAS 27.2 5.3 … 6th round in 2008. Signed through 2016 (signed 3/13). Redskins view him as a “hidden gem” and an "ascending player." I'd keep expectations low for fantasy purposes.

96 +1 Roberts, Andre ARI 24.6 7.4 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

97 (-2) Williams, Damian TEN 24.3 7.7 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

98 +0 Easley, Marcus BUF 24.8 7.2 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

99 +48 Binns, Armon CIN 23.0 8.7 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. ERFA in 2014.

100 +6 Criner, Juron OAK 22.7 8.9 … 5th round in 2012.

101 (-12) Salas, Greg STL 24.0 7.9 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

102 (-1) Alexander, Danario STL 24.1 7.8 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2013.

103 +10 Shipley, Jordan CIN 26.7 5.7 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Will be team's slot receiver in 2012.

104 (-11) Walter, Kevin HOU 31.1 2.3 … 7th round in 2003. Signed through 2014.

105 (-5) Breaston, Steve KC 29.0 3.9 … 5th round in 2007. Signed through 2015.

106 (-24) Williams, Mike SEA 28.7 4.2 … 1st round, #10 pick in 2005. Signed through 2013. It appears broken ankle and fibula from last year could be a lingering issue. Not good news for a guy who is already on the slow side and has had weight gain problems in the past.

107 (-4) Wylie, Devon KC 23.0 8.7 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

108 (-4) Doucet, Early ARI 26.8 5.6 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (re-signed 3/20). Something of a surprise that he returns to Arizona. Had his best season in 2011 and will split catches with Roberts as backup behind Fitz and Floyd.

109 (-4) Coale, Danny DAL 24.2 7.7 … 5th round in 2012.

110 (-3) Douglas, Harry ATL 28.0 4.7 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2015 (re-signed 3/13). Buried behind Roddy and Julio, new 4-year contract kills hope for fantasy value he might have had elsewhere.

111 (-46) Gates, Clyde MIA 26.2 6.1 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

112 (-4) Wright, Jarius MIN 22.8 8.9 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

113 (-1) Benjamin, Travis CLE 22.7 8.9 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

114 (-12) Tate, Brandon CIN 24.9 7.2 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012.

115 +4 Cooper, Riley PHI 25.0 7.1 … 5th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

116 (-6) Martin, Keshawn HOU 22.5 9.1 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

117 (-3) Jernigan, Jerrel NYG 23.2 8.5 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

118 (-2) Doss, Tandon BAL 22.9 8.7 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

119 +1 Harris, Dwayne DAL 25.0 7.1 … 6th round in 2011. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.

120 (-3) Parker, Preston TB 25.5 6.7 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2013 (signed extension 5/21).

Tier 8 - Under-26 longshots maybe worth a stash at the end of your bench

121 (-6) Pettis, Austin STL 24.3 7.6 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Suspended 4 games last December, 2 of which are to be served at start of 2012.

122 +0 Price, Taylor JAC 24.9 7.2 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2014. Stress fracture in foot will cause him to miss offseason workouts, further diminishing chances of making impact with Jags. Could end up on PUP. Signings of L Robinson and L Evans already indicate they may not view him as integral part of their plan anytime soon, if ever.

123 +0 Adams, Joe CAR 22.8 8.9 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

124 +0 Durham, Kris SEA 24.5 7.5 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

125 +0 Shorts III, Cecil JAC 24.7 7.3 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

126 +0 Pilares, Kealoha CAR 24.5 7.5 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

127 (-9) Kerley, Jeremy NYJ 23.8 8.1 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

128 (-17) Morgan, Joseph NO 24.4 7.5 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.

129 (-2) Brazill, LaVon IND 23.5 8.3 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

130 (-2) Cunningham, B.J. MIA 23.3 8.5 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

131 (-2) McNutt, Marvin PHI 23.4 8.4 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

132 (-2) Streeter, Tommy BAL 22.9 8.8 … 6th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

133 (-2) Whalen, Ryan CIN 23.1 8.6 … 6th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

134 (-2) Robinson, Aldrick WAS 23.9 7.9 … 6th round in 2011. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.

135 (-2) Johnson, Ronald PHI 24.1 7.8 … 6th round in 2011. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.

136 (-2) Mitchell, Carlton CLE 24.4 7.6 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.

137 (-2) Matthews, Rishard MIA 22.9 8.8 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

138 (-2) Clemons, Toney PIT 23.9 8.0 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

139 (-2) Ebert, Jeremy NE 23.4 8.4 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

140 (-2) Williams, Kyle SF 24.1 7.8 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Roster spot is definitely in jeopardy after FA signings.

141 (-2) Burton, Stephen MIN 22.7 8.9 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.

142 (-2) Hemingway, Junior KC 23.7 8.1 … 7th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.

143 (-2) Lockette, Ricardo SEA 26.3 6.1 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.

144 (-2) White, Jordan NYJ 24.2 7.7 … 7th round in 2012.

145 (-2) Sanzenbacher, Dane CHI 23.9 8.0 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. RFA in 2014.

146 (-2) Page, Eric DEN 20.9 10.3 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/29 as UDFA

147 (-1) Fuller, Jeff MIA 22.4 9.2 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 5/4 as UDFA

148 +0 Owusu, Chris SF 22.7 9.0 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 5/4 as UDFA

149 +0 Borel, Diondre GB 23.7 8.1 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed a reserve/future contract for 2012.

150 +0 Gurley, Tori GB 24.8 7.3 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed a reserve/future contract for 2012.

Rosterable in a pinch, 60 players not ranked -- listed by draft year

999 NR Benford, Tim DAL 23.0 8.7 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/30 as UDFA
999 NR Talley, Julian NYG 23.2 8.5 … Undrafted in 2012.
999 NR Carswell, Brandon OAK 23.3 8.5 … Undrafted in 2012.
999 NR Moss, Dale GB 23.9 7.9 … Undrafted in 2012.
999 NR Robinson, Gerell DEN 22.9 8.8 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/29 as UDFA
999 NR Maze, Marquis PIT 23.5 8.3 … Undrafted in 2012. Signed 4/30 as UDFA
999 NR McKnight, Scotty NYJ 24.6 7.4 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/26).
999 NR Sampson, DeMarco ARI 26.7 5.7 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2014.
999 NR Toliver, Terrence DET 24.3 7.6 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed a reserve/future contract for 2012.
999 NR Maehl, Jeff HOU 23.6 8.2 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.
999 NR Smithson, Shaky GB 25.0 7.1 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. RFA in 2014.
999 NR Edwards, Armanti CAR 24.5 7.5 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. A chance he'll be cut before start of season.
999 NR Gilyard, Mardy PHI 25.7 6.5 … 4th round in 2010. Signed a reserve/future contract for 2012.
999 NR Reed, David BAL 25.4 6.7 … 5th round in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013.
999 NR Meier, Kerry ATL 25.8 6.5 … 5th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 (-30) Briscoe, Dezmon TB 23.0 8.6 … 6th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Austin, Terrence WAS 24.0 7.9 … 7th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Mariani, Marc TEN 25.3 6.8 … 7th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Ajirotutu, Seyi CAR 25.2 6.9 … Undrafted in 2010. ERFA in 2012.
999 NR Williams, Stephen ARI 26.2 6.2 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed ERFA tender for 2012.
999 NR Robiskie, Brian JAC 24.7 7.3 … 2nd round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Williams, Derrick PIT 26.2 6.2 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed a reserve/future contract for 2012.
999 NR Barden, Ramses NYG 26.7 5.8 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Turner, Patrick NYJ 25.3 6.9 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 2/7).
999 NR Butler, Deon SEA 26.7 5.8 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Murphy, Louis OAK 25.3 6.8 … 4th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Knox, Johnny CHI 25.8 6.4 … 5th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Gibson, Brandon STL 25.1 7.0 … 6th round in 2009. Signed through 2012. May be released and go elsewhere. Has produced in the past.
999 NR Edelman, Julian NE 26.3 6.1 … 7th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Underwood, Tiquan TB 25.5 6.7 … 7th round in 2009. Signed through 2013. Cut by NE 5/3. Signed by TB 5/10.
999 NR Ogletree, Kevin DAL 25.1 7.0 … 4th round in 2009. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/16).
999 NR Norwood, Jordan CLE 25.9 6.4 … Undrafted in 2009. Signed through 2012 (signed ERFA tender 4/17).
999 NR Thomas, Devin CHI 25.8 6.5 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/28). Was primarly a speacial teamer with NYG, though in CHI there might be more opportunity.
999 NR Hawkins, Lavelle TEN 26.1 6.2 … 4th round in 2008. Signed through 2014 (re-signed 2/10).
999 NR Schilens, Chaz NYJ 26.8 5.6 … 7th round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/16).
999 NR Arrington, Adrian NO 26.8 5.6 … 7th round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed ERFA tender 2/28). UFA in 2013. With Meachem departure, could become relevant as he has a crack at filling his role. Still behind Graham, Colston, Moore, Sproles, and in competition with Henderson and possibly Joe Morgan. Best case is probably is to show production in 2012 and get a larger role elsewhere as UFA in 2013.
999 NR Armstrong, Anthony WAS 29.4 3.6 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013.
999 NR Hawkins, Andrew CIN 26.5 5.9 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.
999 NR Ginn, Ted SF 27.4 5.2 … 1st round, pick #9 in 2007. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/22).
999 NR Smith, Steve STL 27.3 5.2 … 2nd round in 2007. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/26). The signing in PHI last year was a waste as they got nothing out of him. Now a couple years removed from microfracture surgery, question is whether he's able to contribute in 2012. He had 107 catches in 2009 and 48 over 9 games in 2010 (extrapolates to 85 over 16). May be undervalued in fantasy right now at just 27 years old, but was only able to get a 1-yr contract so healthy skepticism is advised.
999 NR Hill, Jason DEN 27.5 5.1 … 3rd round in 2007. Signed through 2012 (signed 2/15). May compete with Caldwell for #3 role with Royal moving on to SD.
999 NR Sims-Walker, Mike -- 27.8 4.9 UFA=>??? 3rd round in 2007. Will be interesting to see if he finds a team willing to give him a meaningful role again. Injury and maturity concerns have continued to plague him.
999 NR Naanee, Legedu MIA 29.0 3.9 … 5th round in 2007. Signed through 2012. Very pedestrian talent. Little FF value expected.
999 NR Hester, Devin CHI 29.8 3.2 … 2nd round in 2006. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Hagan, Derek BUF 27.9 4.7 … 3rd round in 2006. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/19). Probably will be 4th or 5th on depth chart. Filled in well last year when injuries hit Bills.
999 NR Smith, Brad BUF 28.7 4.1 … 4th round in 2006. Signed through 2014.
999 NR Aromashodu, Devin MIN 28.3 4.5 … 7th round in 2006. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/23). Worst catch ratio in NFL last year among starters. Forced into role after Jenkins hurt and Berrian let go. Hopefully no more than a WR4 in 2012.
999 NR Obomanu, Ben SEA 28.8 4.0 … 7th round in 2006. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Edwards, Braylon -- 29.5 3.5 UFA=>NYJ? 1st round, #3 pick in 2005. His plan was to resurrect reputation with 1-year deal in SF in 2011 but that flopped. Now it remains to be seen if he gets much interest around the league at 29. Rex Ryan has said Jets would be interested in bringing him back, and that may be the best offer he gets.
999 NR Cribbs, Joshua CLE 29.2 3.7 … Undrafted in 2005. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Evans, Lee JAC 31.5 1.9 … 1st round, #13 pick in 2004. Signed through 2012 (signed 4/16). Ravens' trade for him in 2011 was a bust and he's been largely fantasy irrelevant for awhile now. Not a whole lot should be expected. Likely to be 4th WR at best in terms of productivity behind Blackmon, L Robinson, and M Thomas.
999 NR Jenkins, Michael MIN 30.2 2.9 … 1st round, #29 pick in 2004. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Henderson, Devery NO 30.4 2.8 … 2nd round in 2004. Signed through 2012. Looks like he'll stick another year with Meachem gone.
999 NR Cotchery, Jerricho PIT 30.2 2.9 … 4th round in 2004. Signed through 2013 (re-signed 4/12). Good role player, 4th on depth chart..
999 NR Stallworth, Donte' NE 31.8 1.7 … 1st round, pick #13 in 2002. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/19). No fantasy value here, may not make roster.
999 NR Gaffney, Jabar NE 31.8 1.7 … 2nd round in 2002. Signed through 2013 (signed 5/2).
999 NR Branch, Deion NE 33.1 0.6 … 2nd round in 2002. Signed through 2012 (re-signed 3/22). Has lost a step. Signing of Lloyd buries any fantasy value for Branch. Branch is a Brady favorite or he probably would never have been re-signed, and he still might not make final roster.
999 NR Ochocinco, Chad NE 34.6 -0.6 … 2nd round in 2001. Signed through 2013. Restructured contract to avoid release, but unless he shows he can pick up system this offseason he'll never make it to opening day roster.
999 NR Stokley, Brandon DEN 36.2 -1.8 ... 4th round in 1999. Signed through 2012 (signed 4/16). Not likely to be more than a mentor to the younger WRs as they learn P Manning's system. Could compete with Caldwell for slot time, but I'd keep expectations very low.
999 NR Driver, Donald GB 37.6 -2.9 … 7th round in 1999. Signed through 2012. Appears now he'll remain with GB one more year. His best days are long behind him but he can still contribute something and is a positive guy to have around. Keeping him slows development of young backups though.



TIGHT ENDS

Rk, Rk Chg, Player Name, Team, Age (at 9/1/12), QYR, Notes

Tier 1 - Crème de la crème core players -- acquire them and hold on tight

1 +0 Gronkowski, Rob NE 23.3 7.3 … 2nd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Pretty hard to argue against topping the list with a 23 year old who has already had 27 TDs in his first two years and just set a TE yardage record. Two caveats for those with a buy-high mentality though: (1) Brady is in the twilight of his career and Gronk's value will be determined in part on how long Brady plays. (2) Regression to the mean. 17 is a lot of TDs and very unlikely to be repeated.

2 +0 Graham, Jimmy NO 25.7 5.5 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Would hold the TE receiving record if not for Gronk surpassing him by 17 yards. Still, 99-1310-11 doesn't suck too bad. Two years older than Gronk for what it's worth, but QB Brees is two years younger than Brady. Last year may have been his fantasy ceiling, who knows, but he has a very, very high floor and that's pretty exciting.

Tier 2 - Elite talents who will help you win fantasy football championships

3 +0 Finley, Jermichael GB 25.4 5.7 … 3rd round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (re-signed 2/22). Had a bit of a down year vs sky high expectations. Had a few too many drops, and lower catch rate than his past history would suggest. An aberration? I think so, and I expect to see a big year from him in 2012.

4 +0 Davis, Vernon SF 28.6 3.3 … 1st round, pick #6 in 2006. Signed through 2015. Finished as the #8 TE in 2011. Was under-used much of the season, especially during the first half, then Alex Smith figured out how to click with Click Clack and he again began to look like the guy who was the #1 TE in 2009 and #3 in 2010. Memorable playoff performances as well. Look for more of same in 2012.

5 +0 Hernandez, Aaron NE 22.8 7.7 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Was 79-910-7 in 2011, good for 3rd among TEs in fantasy. Pre-season 2011 concerns about Hernandez and Gronkowski canceling each other out were unfounded because Hernandez is really a WR more than a TE in the Patriots offense. However, I do see a bit of a decline from his 2011 numbers with Lloyd coming in to replace Branch. This ranking reflects that.

Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside

6 +0 Witten, Jason DAL 30.3 2.0 … 3rd round in 2003. Signed through 2017. Consistently around 950-1050 yards per season, TDs fluctuate (5 in 2011 vs 9 in 2010). Was the #6 TE in 2011 after finishing #1 in 2010. Probably a couple of Laurent Robinson's 11 TDs (on just 54 catches) would more normally have gone to Witten. At 30 he should have a few solid seasons left.

7 +0 Fleener, Coby IND 23.9 6.8 … 2nd round in 2012. Colts drafted two TEs in 2012, will use a lot of 2-TE sets, and Fleener will be the primary pass catcher of the two. Excellent speed and hands, not much of a blocker at all. Luck's college teammate so they are very familiar, and that will help accelerate the learning curve for both.

8 +0 Gresham, Jermaine CIN 24.2 6.6 … 1st round, pick #21 in 2010. Signed through 2014. Made a nice move up to TE13 in his 2nd season, but still plenty of room to grow. QB Dalton will no longer be a rookie, WRs Simpson and Caldwell are gone and replaced by rookies and other untested WRs, so Gresham should continue to become a bigger factor in the offense.

9 +0 Celek, Brent PHI 27.6 4.0 … 5th round in 2007. Signed through 2016. Inexplicably ignored in offense the first 5 weeks of the season, then was the #5 fantasy TE thereafter. Was the #4 fantasy TE in 2009 then dropped way down to #19 in 2010 with Vick taking over. It seems Vick has now figured out Celek should be a big part of the offense and I like him going forward.

10 +0 Davis, Fred WAS 26.6 4.8 … 2nd round in 2008. Has been franchise tagged (3/2). Has been franchise tagged. Having him on a one-year deal was the reasonable thing to do given his risk. With his four game suspension last year for a banned substance (meaning it was actually his 2nd offense), he's now one screw up away from a season-long vacation. There will be a new rookie starting QB in town in Griffin too, so there's some extra risk making him your TE1. Also, upside may be a bit less due to an improved WR corps.

Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters

11 +0 Gates, Antonio SD 32.2 0.5 … Undrafted in 2003. Signed through 2015. Finished as the 7th fantasy TE in 2011 despite missing 3 games and being limited in others due to the foot. I expect him to play at a high level about 2-3 more seasons, possibly 4. Both Sharpe and Gonzalez were able to do so through their age 35 seasons, and 4 more from Gates would put him right there with those guys. Still top-3 when healthy, but age shouldn't be ignored and the foot problems could recur. Ranking reflects these risks.

12 +0 Pettigrew, Brandon DET 27.5 4.1 … 1st round, pick #20 in 2009. Signed through 2013. Had 110 and 130 targets the last two seasons, so he's a big part of this offense. An excellent option for those wanting to wait on grabbing their starting fantasy TE.

13 +0 Olsen, Greg CAR 27.5 4.1 … 1st round, pick #31 in 2007. Signed through 2015. Finished as #18 TE in 2011, starting strong (#6 through 8 weeks, #8 on PPG basis) but falling off badly after midseason as nagging injuries took their toll and Shockey got more looks. Again healthy, I think he rebounds and Newton looks for him again as he did early last year. Shockey apparently will not be returning and most of the TE targets should go to Olsen.

14 +0 Cook, Jared TEN 25.4 5.7 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012. This ranking is a leap of faith based on loads of upside and his showing the last few weeks of 2011. Had 44% of his production those last three weeks after being uninspiring most of the year. Could end up a top-10 TE, could be #20. Hard to figure, and 2012 results should go a long way toward forming a long term opinion.

15 +0 Daniels, Owen HOU 29.8 2.3 … 4th round in 2006. Signed through 2014. Has long been one of the more productive TEs when healthy, and also one of the most UNhealthy TEs. Nearing 30, in an offense that is increasingly running with Foster/Tate and not passing as much, he'll still have some good production days but I think the arrow is soon to be pointing down. Dreessen's departure may forestall the decline another year, depending on how much thy use Casey in that role.

16 +0 Keller, Dustin NYJ 27.9 3.8 … 1st round, pick #30 in 2008. Signed through 2012. Was 65-815-5 in 2011, the 9th fantasy TE. Filled the void nicely due to lack of decent #2 WR options, but the Jets now have added rookie WR Hill as WR2. Addition of Tebow could negatively affect Keller too, as the TE was seldom used by him in DEN. This would be true during Tebow's planned limited QB snaps, and especially if he wrests the starting job from Sanchez at some point.

Tier 5 - Vets with extra downside risk and youth with interesting potential

17 +1 Rudolph, Kyle MIN 22.8 7.7 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Played behind Shiancoe most of rookie year, is expected to make jump in soph season now that Shiancoe is gone. Upside could exceed this ranking, but let's see how he's used first. Many of the short passes a lot of TEs would get instead go to Harvin in this offense, they have added another pass catching TE in Carlson, and I also question the talent at the QB position.

18 +1 Moeaki, Tony KC 25.2 5.8 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2013. A promising 47 catch rookie year in 2010 was followed by a 2011 pre-season ACL tear. Should be healed just fine in 2012 and arrow is pointing up, but we'll want to see how he fits in new OC Daboll's offense before moving him too much higher.

19 +1 Tamme, Jacob DEN 27.5 4.1 … 4th round in 2008. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/23). Manning has generally passed a good deal to TEs, and Tamme had a nice catch count (though little in the way of yards per catch) in 2010 when Clark was hurt early in the season. He was invisible last year with Clark's return and Manning out. Just an OK receiver, not a great blocker, he will serve as Manning's 'move' TE and will be the preferred pass catcher over Dreessen. The signing of both those guys appears to signal lack of faith in Julius Thomas' readiness for significant role anytime soon.

20 +1 Gonzalez, Tony ATL 36.5 -2.7 … 1st round, pick #13 in 1997. Signed through 2012. Was 80-875-7 in 2011, good for 4th among TEs, at age 35. Also his 13th straight top-8 finish. Think about that kind of consistency a second. He's expected to follow through with decision to retire after 2012 season. Question becomes how much to value one year of probable top-8 production in dynasty? That will have to be an individual decision based on need and other rostered TE options.

21 +3 Dickson, Ed BAL 25.1 5.9 … 3rd round in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013. I would love to rank him in the teens, and a few games into last season I would have, but... after Week 10 his targets began to decline substantially, and over the last few weeks of the season Pitta got more looks and appeared to be preferred over Dickson. More games are needed to see if one of them separates, but for now it looks like the upside of each is capped by the other.

22 +3 Cameron, Jordan CLE 24.1 6.7 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Another basketball player turned TE, CLE absolutely loves his potential and will give him every chance to develop into a starter and possible impact player. The chance of ending up a total bust who doesn't develop keeps him out of a higher ranking... for now. Are you an upside gambler? This is your guy.

23 (-6) Miller, Zach SEA 26.7 4.7 … 2nd round in 2007. Signed through 2015. A real enigma. Finished as TE11, 12, and 10 in 2008-10 with OAK, then was lured away by SEA with a big 5-year deal. Then pfffft, nothing. TE46 last year. Was it Pete Carroll's system (the same system that rendered previously-effective TE Carlson irrelevant)? Was it QB ineptitude? Was it that Zach had to stay in to block so much due to OL woes? And what does all of that signify for 2012? He's very hard to rank, and putting him even this high may be showing too much faith due to his Oakland production. Flynn signing should benefit Miller as compared to Tarvaris Jackson and, assuming the OL is healthy, he ought to stay in to block less often. But now newly acquired Kellen Winslow is in the mix, and his effect on Miller's numbers at this point is unclear.

Tier 6 – Vets as occasional lineup fillers and youth with uncertain potential

24 (-1) Kendricks, Lance STL 24.6 6.3 … 2nd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. I like his potential to some extent, but rookie year was anything but impressive. Was 28-352-0 with less than a 50% catch rate (28/57) which is bad for a TE, even a rookie. Was spotty as a route runner and a blocker. Unclear how he'll be used in the offense and they have just drafted WRs Quick and Givens. Just too few positives shown in 2011 and too little to hang my hat on to rank him higher until I've seen more.

25 +2 Housler, Rob ARI 24.5 6.4 … 3rd round in 2011. Signed through 2014. A lot of the Kendricks comments can apply to Housler. Didn't show much in his 2011 rookie year (12-133-0). Bad catch ratio (12/26). I was admittedly a big fan of this guy after the 2011 draft and think/hope he'll end up becoming a really good player, especially if Kolb (who loves to use the TE) remains the starter. He should get his chance this year with Heap expected to take a reduced role. We should know by the end of 2012 if Housler is going to amount to anything.

26 +3 Egnew, Michael MIA 22.8 7.6 … 3rd round in 2012. There is some concern that Egnew will be another Missouri TE turned NFL bust after Coffman and Rucker before him. However, Egnew has a real opportunity with only Anthony Fasano ahead of him, in the last year of his contract.

27 +1 Pitta, Dennis BAL 27.7 4.0 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2012. RFA in 2013. See Dickson comments above. I'll just add that Pitta is 2 1/2 years older.

28 +9 Miller, Heath PIT 29.9 2.3 … 1st round, pick #30 in 2005. Signed through 2012. Miller will be nearly 30 at the season's start, and has seen his involvement in the offense decline since his high water mark of 76 catches in 2009. I think he could be in for a short-term bump in 2012 from last year's 51 catches though, because I see the Steelers using the TE and RBs more in the passing game under new OC Todd Haley. Miller is a decent bye/injury filler if needed but that's about it.

29 +2 Lewis, Marcedes JAC 28.3 3.5 … 1st round, pick #28 in 2006. Signed through 2015. I remember railing against those ranking him way too high last year at this time due to the 10 TDs he had in 2010, making him that season's #4 TE when he had never done anything like that before. But even I wouldn't have guessed Lewis would have ZERO TDs and that he'd finish as the #33 TE in 2011. He was in the TE21-23 range in 2007-09 and I think he'll rebound to somewhere in the 20s again.

30 +14 Stocker, Luke TB 24.1 6.7 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Heir apparent to Winslow now that Kellen has been traded. College career was OK, not special, and he'll likely be just an OK pro from a fantasy perspective. He'll stay in to block a lot in Tampa's new offense which emphasizes the run, and will share pass catching duties with newly acquired Dallas Clark. Fantasy production won't be anything special.

31 (-5) Allen, Dwayne IND 22.5 7.9 … 3rd round in 2012. Allen should become a solid all-around TE, but will have more the blocking role to Fleener's preferred pass catching role.

Tier 7 - Talent may be there but it'll be an uphill climb to fantasy relevance

32 (-2) Green, Ladarius SD 22.3 8.1 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Fourth rounder Green has some good pass catching ability, doesn't block worth a lick, and will have to bide his time behind Gates. Since I believe Gates will be around another 2-4 years it's hard for me to rank Green any higher at this point.

33 (-1) Davis, Kellen CHI 26.9 4.6 … 5th round in 2008. Signed through 2013 (re-signed 3/14). When Davis was re-signed earlier this offseason and the Bears promised a return to using the TE now that Mad Mike Martz is gone, I had high hopes here. But then came possession WR Brandon Marshall in a trade, and Alshon Jeffery (another possession WR) was drafted, as was 4th round TE Evan Rodriguez. I now think Davis' role in the offense will be less than I'd hoped, and his tenure may be too depending on Rodgiguez. And down the dynasty rankings he's gone.

34 +1 Robinson, Adrien NYG 23.9 6.8 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. The Giants drafted Robinson in the 4th round based on potential, as his college production was nothing special. HC Coughlin has referred to him as the Justin Tuck of TEs -- in other words, a hidden gem who just needs a chance. We'll see. Very hard to gauge his future at this point, and NYG doesn't use the TE the way the Patriots or Saints do, but there is opportunity there for him. Martellus Bennett was signed for just one year and I'm not very high on MB at all.

35 (-1) Chandler, Scott BUF 27.1 4.4 … 4th round in 2007. Signed through 2013 (re-signed 3/8). He was noticed early last year with TD catches in several games, but was never a big part of the offense outside the red zone. Coaches spoke highly of him in March but he still shouldn't be counted on for big fantasy value.

36 (-14) Winslow, Kellen SEA 29.1 2.9 … 1st round, pick #6 in 2004. Signed through 2014. Was 75/763/2 last year. Reports during the season of his knees being pretty bad, but he played through it. How long will he last? He's 29 at season's start, and some predicted 2-3 years ago that he wouldn't make it this far. Now it's on to Seattle with Stocker / Dallas Clark replacing him in Tampa. He'll back up Z Miller and we'll see how the TE catches are divided in 2012 but I think you can just about close the book on Winslow's long term fantasy value.

37 +1 Moore, Evan CLE 27.7 4.0 … Undrafted in 2008. Signed through 2013. Looks to be the 2012 starter if they release Watson, and although he's far from being a complete TE he's a pretty nice pass catcher. It could be a one-year job or could become more depending on whether Cameron develops or busts. Worth a fantasy roster spot as an occasional line up fill in with possible upside.

38 (-5) Bennett, Martellus NYG 25.5 5.6 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2012 (signed 3/14). A better blocker than receiver, a reputation for immaturity and for being more interested in his off field interests than his football development, his fantasy prospects are probably limited. One year deal says to me that Giants are either skeptical too or they are just looking for a bridge to someone else. That someone else may be rookie 4th rounder Robinson, who HC Coughlin mentions as having a lot of potential. Also, recent report (late May) of Bennett ballooning up to 290 lb from 265 last season. Bottom line is I have very little faith that this guy has any real fantasy future worth getting excited about.

39 +0 Fasano, Anthony MIA 28.4 3.4 … 2nd round in 2006. Signed through 2012. Had another Fasano-like year with 32-451-5. He's a fantasy bench guy who can fill in when byes or injuries leave you little else. Miami stated a desire to upgrade the TE position, then drafted 3rd rounder Egnew. Fasano's starting job is probably safe for one more year, but his contract expires after the 2012 season and that will probably be the end of any fantasy usefulness.

40 NR Clark, Dallas TB 33.2 -0.3 … 1st round, pick #24 in 2003. Signed through 2012. Will back up Stocker and be in on passing downs, but there's little to see here most likely. Dinged up much of 2011 and under-used by inferior quarterbacks, Clark only had 32 catches. Then he was released 3/9 by IND as part of general housecleaning and not signed by anyone for over 2 months. At age 33 he's a shadow of his former self, he's not playing with P Manning any more, and isn't someone I'd want to roster in dynasty.

Tier 8 - Under-26 longshots maybe worth a stash at the end of your bench

41 +0 Ausberry, David OAK 24.9 6.0 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. A former WR in college, could become Raiders' pass catching TE this season with a good camp. He's been taking first-team reps but the position is far from settled.

42 +5 Rodriguez, Evan CHI 23.9 6.8 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Rookie 4th rounder and only pedestrian Kellen Davis atop the depth chart as starter. A long way to go before we know how or if he'll fit in, but opportunity seems to be there if he is any good.

43 +2 Thompson, Taylor TEN 22.9 7.6 … 5th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Thompson was a defensive player in college but converted during Senior Bowl week to TE and turned some heads. The Titans thought enough of him to grab him in the 5th round. He's a project and they also have Cook, but Thompson apparently has created quite a buzz with his potential.

44 (-8) Charles, Orson CIN 21.6 8.6 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015. Charles was drafted in the 4th round but would probably have gone a round or so higher if not for some immaturity and off field issues. So, of course Cincy saw the bargain and took him. He's stuck behind Gresham who is just 24 though, so except in two-TE sets it's hard to see much value here in the foreseeable future.

45 (-2) Thomas, Julius DEN 24.2 6.6 … 4th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Was the darling of pre-season 2011 hype but ended up doing nada his rookie year. A big bust risk but with oodles of raw athleticism. Signing of both Tamme and Dreessen to 3-yr deals is indication DEN doesn't see enough progress to trust him yet, maybe ever.

46 (-4) Clay, Charles (RB-MFL) MIA 23.5 7.1 … 6th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. H-back (FB/TE hybrid), and is listed by some fantasy services (such as MyFantasyLeague) as RB and therefore not usable as a TE. It looks like Egnew will be the starting TE once he's ready to take over for Fasano in a year, but Clay will be in the mix for stats.

47 NR Harbor, Clay PHI 25.2 5.9 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013. Harbor is another H-back FB/TE type and sees the field a decent amount of the time, but unless something happens to Celek he'll be limited in his usefulness.

48 (-2) Williams, D.J. GB 24.0 6.8 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Finley re-signing buries most hope for fantasy value for the next two years, but he's young and talented and in a high-powered offense. That may be worth something.

49 (-1) Smith, Lee BUF 24.8 6.2 … 5th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Backup to Chandler. Not much to see here. But then, the same can be said of Chandler.

50 (-1) Green, Virgil (susp4) DEN 24.1 6.7 … 7th round in 2011. Signed through 2014. Has some raw talent, but Julius Thomas was taken 3 rounds higher in same draft. Neither did anything in 2011. Also, now suspended for 4 games for violating league PED policy. Signing of Tamme and Dreessen may mean Green doesn't make roster, but moving on to another team would be best for his chances anyway.

Rosterable in a pinch, 20 players not ranked -- listed by draft year

999 NR Ellison, Rhett (RB-MFL) MIN 23.9 6.8 … 4th round in 2012. Signed through 2015.
999 NR Hanna, James DAL 23.1 7.4 … 6th round In 2012.
999 (-1) Saunders, Weslye (susp4) PIT 23.6 7.0 … Undrafted in 2011. Signed through 2013. RFA in 2014. Suspended 4 games for upcoming season (2/7/12). Some hype in fantasy circles, but he didn't do much at South Carolina and trouble seems to follow him. I'll pass unless I see something significant happening with his career first.
999 NR Graham, Garrett HOU 26.1 5.2 … 4th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Hoomanawanui, Michael STL 24.2 6.6 … 5th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Quarless, Andrew GB 23.9 6.8 … 5th round in 2010. Signed through 2013.
999 NR Onobun, Fendi BUF 25.8 5.4 … 6th round in 2010. Signed an undisclosed contract in 2011.
999 NR Ballard, Jake NYG 24.7 6.2 … Undrafted in 2010. Signed through 2012 (signed ERFA tender 3/8). Expected to start season on PUP with ACL and microfracture surgery. Future depends on how well his spot is filled while he's out. Bennett has been signed, but to a one-year contract, and 4th rounder Rodgiguez was drafted.
999 NR Beckum, Travis NYG 25.6 5.5 … 3rd round in 2009. Signed through 2012. May start season on PUP (ACL).
999 NR Myers, Brandon OAK 27.0 4.5 … 6th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Phillips, John DAL 25.2 5.8 … 6th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 NR Morrah, Cameron SEA 25.5 5.6 … 7th round in 2009. Signed through 2012.
999 (-11) Carlson, John MIN 28.3 3.5 … 2nd round in 2008. Signed through 2016 (signed 3/14). Not much use as a blocker, his value plummeted when HC Pete Carroll arrived in SEA and good blocking by the TE became paramount. He put up solid receiving numbers before then (2008 and 09) and should be an asset in Vikings' two TE sets. Second year TE Rudolph caps Carlson's upside however at a relatively low level.
999 NR Scheffler, Tony DET 29.5 2.5 … 2nd round in 2006. Signed through 2013. Never lived up to hopes fantasy folks had for him as 2nd rounder out of college, still can produce when given the chance but will never be more than a backup.
999 NR Pope, Leonard PIT 29.0 3.0 … 3rd round in 2006. Signed through 2012 (signed 4/10). Filled in for Moeaki after he was hurt in 2011. It'll again be a reserve role this year behind H Miller.
999 NR Walker, Delanie SF 28.1 3.7 … 6th round in 2006. Signed through 2012. Clear backup to V Davis but productive when given the chance, it would be interesting to see what opportunities he'd have once contract is up in 2012.
999 NR Dreessen, Joel DEN 30.1 2.1 … 6th round in 2005. Signed through 2014 (signed 3/23). Had 6 TDs on just 28 catches in 2011. Don't expect to see that ratio again from the 30 year old. DEN has also signed Tamme so Dreessen looks to be the in-line TE with less involvement receiving.
999 NR Watson, Benjamin CLE 31.7 0.9 … 1st round, pick #32 in 2004. Signed through 2012. After an excellent 2010 he suffered through a poor 2011, including three concussions that eventually landed him on IR. If Evan Moore is ready to take over in 2012 Watson may be released. They are also very high on J Cameron and need to make room to get him reps.
999 NR Cooley, Chris WAS 30.1 2.1 … 3rd round in 2004. Signed through 2013. Hurt most of the year and had dropped below Fred Davis on the depth chart before that. His days of good fantasy production are probably behind him. There are reports he's a candidate for release given his salary and team's intent to move Niles Paul to TE.
999 NR Heap, Todd ARI 32.5 0.3 … 1st round, pick #31 in 2001. Signed through 2012. What do you call an old car that keeps breaking down? That's right, a Heap. Troubled by hammy issues, he missed six games and was gimpy for several others. Had the worst stats of his long career. If ARI thinks Housler is ready to take over, Heap may be released. At best he's a fantasy bench player, useful sometimes when feeling 100%.




qw
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#2 ConnSKINS26

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 04:01 PM

Still perusing the list, but I'd just like to make a comment--there are SO many flawed RB's being relied on for fantasy dominance right now. Its crazy, the consistency/talent dropoff after the top 7-10. No wonder so many folks, myself included, value TR as a top-5 dynasty RB, as crazy as that is. There's plenty of room to slot him in the top-ten without feeling to nervous about it, anyways.

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#3 Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 04:21 PM

Still perusing the list, but I'd just like to make a comment--there are SO many flawed RB's being relied on for fantasy dominance right now. Its crazy, the consistency/talent dropoff after the top 7-10. No wonder so many folks, myself included, value TR as a top-5 dynasty RB, as crazy as that is. There's plenty of room to slot him in the top-ten without feeling to nervous about it, anyways.

If I were to slot T Richardson right now, knowing nothing about his landing spot or timeshare situation, I'd put him somewhere after Rice and before McFadden. Maybe right after Rice, at the top of tier 2.

Edited by Couch Potato, 03 February 2012 - 04:22 PM.

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#4 HAM

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 05:08 PM

Bump Chris Wells up to top of tier 3. Drop Peyton Hillis down to tier 5. Thanks for posting, good stuff here

#5 EBF

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 05:11 PM

Bad year to need a RB. 4-10 reads like a list of players who are either: A.) Injured. B.) Nearing their expiration date. C.) All of the above. Mathews is the only guy in that tier who doesn't have any warts. Then again, do you really want to spend a top 10 pick on Ryan Mathews? The RB position has been devalued by the NFL and we're seeing the consequences in FF.

#6 Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 05:26 PM

Bad year to need a RB. 4-10 reads like a list of players who are either: A.) Injured. B.) Nearing their expiration date. C.) All of the above. Mathews is the only guy in that tier who doesn't have any warts. Then again, do you really want to spend a top 10 pick on Ryan Mathews? The RB position has been devalued by the NFL and we're seeing the consequences in FF.

Being a prelim ranking, I didn't agonize over this, but I can tell you I'm uncomfortable with some of these. McFadden maybe shouldn't be so high because of health, yet the talent means monster numbers when he plays. AP, same thing. How much of 2012 is lost, and is it worth that to have him the next 3 years. MJD will be 27, not old but not 24-25 either. Had 344 carries too. CJ's ranking assumes a bounce back year. Can we assume that? Charles with his ACL, but it was early... actually I'm tempted to move him up. Thinking of going (tier 2) Forte, Charles, MJD, Peterson, Mathews, Johnson, McFadden (or Stewart supplanting McF). Mathews has been dinged a lot, and I'm not convinced of his toughness or conditioning being top notch, plus I think Tolbert will be back and continue to vulture short TDs and receiving yards for the foreseeable future. So he's no slam dunk stud either. Yep, not at all a clean RB list, a whole bunch of flawed guys for sure.

Edited by Couch Potato, 03 February 2012 - 05:29 PM.

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#7 bicycle_seat_sniffer

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 05:29 PM

If you were doing a dynasty start up would you really take Steven Jackson over beanie and cj spiller?

 

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#8 Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 05:40 PM

If you were doing a dynasty start up would you really take Steven Jackson over beanie and cj spiller?

Hiya BSS. :) Dunno, honestly. Their rankings are just a few apart. I know SJax will be a workhorse the next 2 years with Fisher as HC, and I don't know what we'll get the next 2 years with Beanie (R Williams) or Spiller (F Jackson). Do I create a team to win now, and trust my ability to find what I need the next few years to replace SJax, or do I create a team with timeshare guys and not win because of that, and by the time their situations become clearer maybe they'll never be studs? Youth is great if the production is going to be there but my confidence in that is iffy with both those guys.

Edited by Couch Potato, 03 February 2012 - 05:42 PM.

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#9 Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 05:47 PM

Bump Chris Wells up to top of tier 3. Drop Peyton Hillis down to tier 5. Thanks for posting, good stuff here

I have some doubts about Wells quite honestly. Dinged a lot, almost no yardage receiving. Presence of Williams potentially a problem. Hillis went to the top of this tier because of recent news that it looks like a return to CLE as starting back now appears more likely than not.
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#10 Patoons

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 06:02 PM

If you were doing a dynasty start up would you really take Steven Jackson over beanie and cj spiller?

I'm with you, think Spiller is a bit low/SJax a bit high. Nice list, though.

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#11 Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 06:24 PM

I appreciate the comments. It's food for thought. This thing is a work in progress and I'm hesitant to defend any particular ranking very strongly. It's so early still, before draft and free agency and guys returning from injury, but I thought if I kept my own ongoing dynasty list rather than relying on those of others it would help me do a better job of deciding in my own mind where guys ought to be as the offseason unfolded.
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#12 bicycle_seat_sniffer

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 06:36 PM

If you were doing a dynasty start up would you really take Steven Jackson over beanie and cj spiller?

Hiya BSS. :) Dunno, honestly. Their rankings are just a few apart. I know SJax will be a workhorse the next 2 years with Fisher as HC, and I don't know what we'll get the next 2 years with Beanie (R Williams) or Spiller (F Jackson). Do I create a team to win now, and trust my ability to find what I need the next few years to replace SJax, or do I create a team with timeshare guys and not win because of that, and by the time their situations become clearer maybe they'll never be studs? Youth is great if the production is going to be there but my confidence in that is iffy with both those guys.

To me players like Gore,Sjax, Turner, they are toast. I expect Stl to draft a replacement this year or next. Gore's replacement is there in Hunter.

 

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#13 The Comedian

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 07:22 PM

thanks for doing this. Jahvid Best - I'm not sure I'd touch him with a 10ft pole. I certainly wouldn't trade some of the guys below him for him. Do you think his concussion problems are going to get better? Turner & Jacquizz - you seem very low on both of these guys, do you think the future fantasy-producing ATL RB is not on the roster? are you doing any other positions? :popcorn:

#14 Couch Potato

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 07:58 PM

thanks for doing this. Jahvid Best - I'm not sure I'd touch him with a 10ft pole. I certainly wouldn't trade some of the guys below him for him. Do you think his concussion problems are going to get better? Turner & Jacquizz - you seem very low on both of these guys, do you think the future fantasy-producing ATL RB is not on the roster? are you doing any other positions? :popcorn:

The plan is to have a thread per position, Q R W T, and update/bump it periodically. This is a first pass. I'll add comments and ages and so forth at some point. With Best, I tried to walk that line between talent and risk, and that's sort of where he landed. He's 23 next season and before the concussions was putting up great numbers. He'd be in the top dozen or so if he had a clean bill of health. And, given the talent, I'd still take his upside over the old/limited/timeshare guys beneath him. He's a guy whose future ranking will depend a lot on how news unfolds. Very uncertain for now. Turner has another decent year ahead of him, could have two, but the phase-out will begin this year at least to some extent as Quiz picks up more work. I don't view Quiz as the heir apparent though. I see him at this point as a career supplemental back, catching passes and getting a relatively small handful of carries. So yes, I see the feature back of 2014 (maybe 2013) as someone not yet on the roster.
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#15 fruity pebbles

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 08:54 PM

NFL really is void of young stud rbs particularly in terms of fantasy production. Only guys id really feel comfortable owning long term are rice and lesean.

#16 Dr. Awesome

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:57 AM

Drop Peyton Hillis down to tier 5.

Why? I'd rather have him over Ingram (major rbbc for the foreseeable future) and Best (uncomfortable with the concussions). If there's someone from that tier to knock down it's Shonn Greene. Thanks for doing this CP and I'm really interested in the discussion that follows. :thumbup:

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#17 wdcrob

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 04:39 AM

Thanks for sharing Couch - nice list. I'd have Felix quite a bit higher, but that could just be what someone I know calls 'desperate optimism of the heavily invested'. Maybe you could edit your other position lists into the first post, and also post them at the end of the thread to facilitate discussion? That way your rankings and related conversation are in one place.

#18 SydsConfusion

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 05:37 AM

I would put Lynch in the middle of tier 2.

#19 Skeletore Eh

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 05:48 AM

If you were doing a dynasty start up would you really take Steven Jackson over beanie and cj spiller?

Hiya BSS. :) Dunno, honestly. Their rankings are just a few apart. I know SJax will be a workhorse the next 2 years with Fisher as HC, and I don't know what we'll get the next 2 years with Beanie (R Williams) or Spiller (F Jackson). Do I create a team to win now, and trust my ability to find what I need the next few years to replace SJax, or do I create a team with timeshare guys and not win because of that, and by the time their situations become clearer maybe they'll never be studs? Youth is great if the production is going to be there but my confidence in that is iffy with both those guys.

To me players like Gore,Sjax, Turner, they are toast. I expect Stl to draft a replacement this year or next. Gore's replacement is there in Hunter.

Yeah they are all aging Running backs, but i don't think you can really lump the three together. Turner may be toast, but gore still has something left and sjax even more so.

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WR - AJ, Julio, Demaryius, Harvin, Blackmon, Stills

TE - Graham, Reed


#20 Whitney26

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 06:25 AM

If you were doing a dynasty start up would you really take Steven Jackson over beanie and cj spiller?

Hiya BSS. :) Dunno, honestly. Their rankings are just a few apart. I know SJax will be a workhorse the next 2 years with Fisher as HC, and I don't know what we'll get the next 2 years with Beanie (R Williams) or Spiller (F Jackson). Do I create a team to win now, and trust my ability to find what I need the next few years to replace SJax, or do I create a team with timeshare guys and not win because of that, and by the time their situations become clearer maybe they'll never be studs? Youth is great if the production is going to be there but my confidence in that is iffy with both those guys.

To me players like Gore,Sjax, Turner, they are toast. I expect Stl to draft a replacement this year or next. Gore's replacement is there in Hunter.

Yeah they are all aging Running backs, but i don't think you can really lump the three together. Turner may be toast, but gore still has something left and sjax even more so.

I've always struggled ranking the aging guys (Turner, Gore, etc) for dynasty purposes. I just put them in a separate tier I call "Rentals." Seems like they flow a little better. Regardless, it's a terrific list.

Edited by Whitney26, 04 February 2012 - 06:26 AM.


#21 greggorymac

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 08:59 AM

I would put Lynch in the middle of tier 2.

:goodposting: You have Lynch too low CP.

#22 Multiple Scores

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 09:47 AM

Drop Peyton Hillis down to tier 5.

Why? I'd rather have him over Ingram (major rbbc for the foreseeable future) and Best (uncomfortable with the concussions). If there's someone from that tier to knock down it's Shonn Greene. Thanks for doing this CP and I'm really interested in the discussion that follows. :thumbup:

I would rather have Ingram over Hillis and I think that's really saying something about my confidence in Hillis.

#23 Touchdown There

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 09:50 AM

I would put Lynch in the middle of tier 2.

:goodposting: You have Lynch too low CP.

Lynch plays well when motivated. He does not Beast Mode all the time. His ranking looks fair to me until he shows he is going to bring it every week.

#24 joey

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 09:59 AM

Re: older RBs and dynasty rankings. I think If you own both Gore and Hunter, that combo is ranked a bunch higher than they are separately. You have the short-term rental with Gore and a young runner who looks to have the skills to step right in after Gore breaks down. It's almost like you need to think of it as "team RB" in dynasty. Then I'd rank It more like Gore/Hunter Turner/Rogers SJax/no young replacement in house yet?

#25 ConnSKINS26

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:10 AM

Gore/Hunter and Turner/Rodgers will probably be mired in a RBBC before the younger half of the duo steals the workload completely some time in the future (assuming that those young RB's ARE the heir apparent--that's easier to assume with Hunter than Quizz). I don't think it will be a clean transition from one to the other in either case. Steven Jackson has no competition, will be in a run-heavy offense, and is the most skilled of these RB's, if they were all healthy and in their prime. Shouldn't that put S-Jax at the top of that "rental" tier for now? He's got the job to himself. Injury is the only thing in his way until they draft an heir to the position, and he's talented enough to take advantage of that if he's healthy.

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#26 ConstruxBoy

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:19 AM

Nice list, thanks!

#27 HAM

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:57 AM

Drop Peyton Hillis down to tier 5.

Why? I'd rather have him over Ingram (major rbbc for the foreseeable future) and Best (uncomfortable with the concussions). If there's someone from that tier to knock down it's Shonn Greene. Thanks for doing this CP and I'm really interested in the discussion that follows. :thumbup:

I would rather have Ingram over Hillis and I think that's really saying something about my confidence in Hillis.

There's no way I'd take him over ingram. Don't see how anyone can. Just not a fan of what he does a how he acts. Don't see the value. Bump him down and let someone else take him.

#28 Dr. Awesome

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 12:35 PM

Drop Peyton Hillis down to tier 5.

Why? I'd rather have him over Ingram (major rbbc for the foreseeable future) and Best (uncomfortable with the concussions). If there's someone from that tier to knock down it's Shonn Greene. Thanks for doing this CP and I'm really interested in the discussion that follows. :thumbup:

I would rather have Ingram over Hillis and I think that's really saying something about my confidence in Hillis.

There's no way I'd take him over ingram. Don't see how anyone can. Just not a fan of what he does a how he acts. Don't see the value. Bump him down and let someone else take him.

If he was that much of a headcase the Browns would not be showing interest in bringing him back. If he goes to Cleveland he is going to carry the load. I don't look much past 3 years in dynasty value. Ingram is going to be stuck in a rbbc next year and I don't see them going away from their style for as long as Brees/Payton are there (nor should they change what works). I'm not crazy about the talent of Hillis or Ingram but Hillis is much more likely to land in a friendly situation. And when the talent is comparable I'll roll with the guy in the better situation.

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#29 Couch Potato

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 01:43 PM

Maybe you could edit your other position lists into the first post, and also post them at the end of the thread to facilitate discussion? That way your rankings and related conversation are in one place.

Yes, after some thought it does make more sense to keep Q R W T all in the same thread, and I'll just keep things in the first post rather than have four threads floating around. Thanks. Working on WRs now. :)

I'd have Felix quite a bit higher, but that could just be what someone I know calls 'desperate optimism of the heavily invested'.

Even though just 25, Felix has seen his opportunity to be a starter come and go. Four years under his belt and never more than 185 carries in a season, seemingly always dealing with some nagging injury. Only 2 rushing TDs in 313 carries over 28 games in 2010/11 too. Murray is the man in DAL now, Felix is a CoP back and the hope for big upside is pretty much gone. So, he's ranked as a career CoP back who doesn't score TDs.

Edited by Couch Potato, 04 February 2012 - 01:44 PM.

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#30 Couch Potato

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 01:53 PM

I would put Lynch in the middle of tier 2.

Twelve TDs on less than 300 carries IMO won't be the norm. YPC has never been more than 4.2 in any season. I still have concerns about him in other ways too (tool factor), and I'm unwilling to move him higher. He's already moved from oblivion to where I have him now. My trust in him just isn't there at this point, in my mind he still has some history to overcome, and in a dynasty league I don't want to be the guy investing a ton in a possible aberrational season when there are other guys I have more long term faith in. Let's see more from him before I do that, not just 16 games.
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#31 Couch Potato

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 02:10 PM

Good discussion above on the older RBs and their complementary/heir apparent RBs. Always tricky ranking these guys because you really don't know if the cliff will come at 30 or 32. Guys like Fred Jackson and McGahee last year, and others before them, still got it done nicely after 29. Some have done so past 32, but in my mind the Year 31 season is pretty much the last end point for me. Also, lots of times we wait around on the backup to become the starter in a couple of years, and -- oops -- a new guy is drafted for the job when that time comes, shooting that hope is shot all to hell. That's happened a few times to me over the years.
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#32 Ministry of Pain

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 04:48 PM

Still perusing the list, but I'd just like to make a comment--there are SO many flawed RB's being relied on for fantasy dominance right now. Its crazy, the consistency/talent dropoff after the top 7-10. No wonder so many folks, myself included, value TR as a top-5 dynasty RB, as crazy as that is. There's plenty of room to slot him in the top-ten without feeling to nervous about it, anyways.

New Rule: Guys who haven't played in the NFL cannot just be cited with their initials like the rest of us are supposed to just know who that is. I scrolled thru the list twice thinking TR"..."TR"..."TR"???

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#33 joey

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 05:16 PM

Those of us who have a 1.01 this year know those initials well ;)

#34 bicycle_seat_sniffer

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 05:17 PM


Still perusing the list, but I'd just like to make a comment--there are SO many flawed RB's being relied on for fantasy dominance right now. Its crazy, the consistency/talent dropoff after the top 7-10. No wonder so many folks, myself included, value TR as a top-5 dynasty RB, as crazy as that is. There's plenty of room to slot him in the top-ten without feeling to nervous about it, anyways.

New Rule: Guys who haven't played in the NFL cannot just be cited with their initials like the rest of us are supposed to just know who that is. I scrolled thru the list twice thinking TR"..."TR"..."TR"???

Trich?

 

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#35 ConnSKINS26

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 05:31 PM

I figured in a thread about dynasty RB rankings, TR would be all I needed in that context...my apologies.

When your opinion matters, I'll inform you.


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#36 Couch Potato

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 05:44 PM

I figured in a thread about dynasty RB rankings, TR would be all I needed in that context...my apologies.

Even an OF like CP figured it out OK. MoP just doesn't like F'n initials IMO. NTTAWWT.
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#37 ReggieHammond

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 06:03 PM

No Evan Royster? I'd rather him than Helu in a Dynasty.
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#38 ConnSKINS26

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 06:25 PM

No Evan Royster? I'd rather him than Helu in a Dynasty.

Why? Because of the relative price difference? I could understand that, I suppose.

When your opinion matters, I'll inform you.


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#39 Couch Potato

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 07:19 PM

No Evan Royster? I'd rather him than Helu in a Dynasty.

I don't see him as top-70 RB with Helu and Hightower on board. I don't think many would agree he'd be ahead of either of those guys in the Skins' pecking order. I'll be expanding my RB list to 90 at some point and he'll be on there.
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#40 Couch Potato

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 08:42 PM

First post updated to include first pass at WRs. QB and TE to be added probably early next week.

Edited by Couch Potato, 06 February 2012 - 07:19 AM.

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#41 Alex P Keaton

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 08:52 PM

No Evan Royster? I'd rather him than Helu in a Dynasty.

I don't see him as top-70 RB with Helu and Hightower on board. I don't think many would agree he'd be ahead of either of those guys in the Skins' pecking order. I'll be expanding my RB list to 90 at some point and he'll be on there.

I don't expect Hightower to even be on the roster next year.

Edited by Alex P Keaton, 04 February 2012 - 08:52 PM.


#42 ReggieHammond

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 09:38 PM

No Evan Royster? I'd rather him than Helu in a Dynasty.

I don't see him as top-70 RB with Helu and Hightower on board. I don't think many would agree he'd be ahead of either of those guys in the Skins' pecking order. I'll be expanding my RB list to 90 at some point and he'll be on there.

I didn't even notice that you had Hightower on your list. He is a FA and will be coming off an ACL, even if back in WAS it's doubtful he's going to be much of a factor. Both Helu and Royster looked much better than Hightower IMO. I thought Royster looked good, from what I saw of the 2 I think he's more likely to be a "bell cow" type back than Helu.
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#43 Couch Potato

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 07:02 AM

I won't have the time to add player notes for a little while, so I'll say this here re the WRs. If you wonder why Marshall, Bess, and Hartline are all a little higher than most rank them, it's because I'm already factoring in about a 50% chance they'll have a certain former Colts QB throwing to them this year instead of what they've had in recent years. In addition to 50% Miami, I'm giving a 20% chance to Arizona, 20% to NYJ and 10% to everyone else.

Edited by Couch Potato, 05 February 2012 - 07:06 AM.

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#44 Mister CIA

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 08:58 AM

First post updated to include first pass at WRs. QB and TE to be added probably early next week (QB possibly Sunday).

Nice work. My two cents, I've got Andre Johnson solidly in Tier 1 territory. Yes, hamstring issues were unpleasant this year, but I don't expect that to linger into 2012. Also, age is not a concern. I see a solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1. Kenny Britt - not interested. I know he's shown great promise, but he's got too many negative check marks at the moment. Would definitely want to see what Tenn does at WR position this off-season before considering him. Regarding GB receivers, if you already own Jennings or Nelson, that's great, but I'm not about to try to acquire either one at their current values. Also, my senses tell me that Cobb is the guy to own long term. I think he is going to be a star ... I see a younger, faster Wes Welker :banned: For those that like to trade for the next big thing before they actually become the next big thing, my favorite targets this off-season, in addition to Cobb, are Vincent Brown, Arrelious Benn, and Greg Little.

#45 Couch Potato

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:30 AM

I've got Andre Johnson solidly in Tier 1 territory. Yes, hamstring issues were unpleasant this year, but I don't expect that to linger into 2012. Also, age is not a concern. I see a solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1.

I discounted AJ, Roddy, and Welker more than most do. While 31 isn't old to the point of affecting performance yet, you'll be hard pressed to find many 34 year old WRs putting up starting lineup numbers. You state "solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1" but I can almost guarantee that won't be the case, and it's a lot more likely he's someone you'll be desperately trying to unload for cheap in 2 years. Whereas the cliff is after 31-32 for most RBs and FF owners are jumping ship at 29, the cliff is after 33-34 for WRs yet fantasy owners are in denial about it and get stuck with these guys when it's too late. There are exceptions one can point to, just as there are exceptions at RB, but they are indeed exceptions. Father time gets them all, and for WRs 34 is the late cutoff I use.

Edited by Couch Potato, 05 February 2012 - 09:34 AM.

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#46 FreeBaGeL

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 02:22 PM


I've got Andre Johnson solidly in Tier 1 territory. Yes, hamstring issues were unpleasant this year, but I don't expect that to linger into 2012. Also, age is not a concern. I see a solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1.

I discounted AJ, Roddy, and Welker more than most do. While 31 isn't old to the point of affecting performance yet, you'll be hard pressed to find many 34 year old WRs putting up starting lineup numbers. You state "solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1" but I can almost guarantee that won't be the case, and it's a lot more likely he's someone you'll be desperately trying to unload for cheap in 2 years. Whereas the cliff is after 31-32 for most RBs and FF owners are jumping ship at 29, the cliff is after 33-34 for WRs yet fantasy owners are in denial about it and get stuck with these guys when it's too late.There are exceptions one can point to, just as there are exceptions at RB, but they are indeed exceptions. Father time gets them all, and for WRs 34 is the late cutoff I use.

I don't disagree with any point in particular but it's amazing how much perception changes in one year.Last offseason AJ was pretty much the consensus #1 dynasty WR. This year most have him around #10 because he's "old", even though he's only one year older.

#47 Just Win Baby

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 02:27 PM



I've got Andre Johnson solidly in Tier 1 territory. Yes, hamstring issues were unpleasant this year, but I don't expect that to linger into 2012. Also, age is not a concern. I see a solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1.

I discounted AJ, Roddy, and Welker more than most do. While 31 isn't old to the point of affecting performance yet, you'll be hard pressed to find many 34 year old WRs putting up starting lineup numbers. You state "solid three-four year stretch remaining in Tier 1" but I can almost guarantee that won't be the case, and it's a lot more likely he's someone you'll be desperately trying to unload for cheap in 2 years. Whereas the cliff is after 31-32 for most RBs and FF owners are jumping ship at 29, the cliff is after 33-34 for WRs yet fantasy owners are in denial about it and get stuck with these guys when it's too late.There are exceptions one can point to, just as there are exceptions at RB, but they are indeed exceptions. Father time gets them all, and for WRs 34 is the late cutoff I use.

I don't disagree with any point in particular but it's amazing how much perception changes in one year.Last offseason AJ was pretty much the consensus #1 dynasty WR. This year most have him around #10 because he's "old", even though he's only one year older.

Maybe this is nitpicking, but I don't agree that he was the consensus #1 dynasty WR last offseason. That was Calvin Johnson. Andre Johnson was still very high, but not #1. Now he is not only a year older, but he has now had yet another season where he couldn't stay healthy. Meanwhile, a couple young WRs (Green and Jones) emerged. It's really not surprising that he would drop from top tier to #10 IMO.

Edited by Just Win Baby, 07 February 2012 - 06:33 AM.


#48 Couch Potato

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 06:24 PM

First post updated to include QBs. :) I may as well say it here. NOT a fan of Tebow, and think he'll lose his starting job by mid-season 2012. Given that, I can't rank him higher than I have him (QB27).

Edited by Couch Potato, 06 February 2012 - 06:31 PM.

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#49 duaneok66

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 06:27 PM

interesting QB ratings - I think Cam and Stafford are too high - but I love reading these ratings overall. Great work!!

#50 EBF

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 06:34 PM

I would much rather have Cam than Stafford. Cam had a higher yards per attempt this year despite being a rookie and he's a vastly superior athlete and physical specimen. Cam is a top 10 overall dynasty player for me and a guy who belongs in any first tier. I will not be drafting Stafford at his ADP this offseason. I think he's being treated like an elite QB without having the stats to back it up. I realize that TDs and yards are all that most people look at. I've always thought that completion percentage, yards per attempt, and QB rating collectively provided a better indicator of actual QB quality. Stafford hasn't been elite in these areas. I think the hype for him is a more exaggerated version of what happened with Palmer and Cutler in years past (although, to be fair, his numbers are probably more impressive than theirs ever were). He might justify his perceived value in time, but...he might not. I've seen lots of young QBs come in, play reasonably well, and never get any better. Assuming that one of them is going to take the next step has been a common mistake in recent years (see: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco - all considered unanimous top 10 dynasty QBs at one point or another).




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