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Torrey Smith (2011) = Mike Wallace (2009) (1 Viewer)

Concept Coop

Footballguy
Torrey Smith's rookie season is eerily similar to Mike Wallace's in 2009. When looking at their advanced stats, they both ranked 7th in the NFL in Win Probability Added. Both went deep on a staggering 50% of their targets, and both caught about 50% of the balls thrown their way. Their YPR were 17 and 18 a piece. Their Success Rates were in the same percentile too (50%).

Player that can go deep as often as these two do, and still maintain a respectable catch rate, win games for their NFL teams. When players win games, they are used more and continue producing. For reference DeSean Jackson had a similar catch rate over his best two seasons (50% ish) but only went deep 40% of the time - 10% less than Wallace and Smith.

For those looking for a buy low, or a breakout candidate - jump on the Torrey Smith bandwagon.

 
Maybe. My outlook is a little more tempered because the offense has been so RB/TE centric under the current staff. I also want to see what the Ravens do in FA and the draft before I think about buying a ticket on that band wagon.

He is talented.

 
I like Torrey but some negatives on him:

[*]Disappeared with Boldin out

[*]Flacco is not Ben

[*]Limited routes

What qualifies as buy low if he is already valued as a top 75 player. Would you take him over Blackmon and Wright? Would you trade DeSean or Sidney Rice for him?

 
Maybe. My outlook is a little more tempered because the offense has been so RB/TE centric under the current staff. I also want to see what the Ravens do in FA and the draft before I think about buying a ticket on that band wagon.He is talented.
The Steelers weren't exactly WR friendly at the time, either. The stats show that Torrey Smith wins games for the Ravens. A player that can have such a high number of deep targets pay off has a place in the NFL. Like Wallace at the time, Smith needs some seasoning. But what he did as a rookie was a very good sign. People are impressed with Denarius Moore's rookie season, rightfully so, but Smith's was significantly more impressive, statistically. I think the stat is a good indication of Smith's talent. There are variables, some of which you mentioned, but I am excited about his future. The 50/50 (50% deep/50% catch rate) mark is an indicator that I intend to follow/research more, but I like what I have seen of the stat, so far.
 
I like Torrey but some negatives on him:

[*]Disappeared with Boldin out

[*]Flacco is not Ben

[*]Limited routes

What qualifies as buy low if he is already valued as a top 75 player. Would you take him over Blackmon and Wright? Would you trade DeSean or Sidney Rice for him?
I would take him over Wright and S. Rice, not Blackmon. Jackson is an interesting case. I have an offer out now (My Jackson for his Smith +). I would very strongly consider a straight across trade.The only thing more impressive about Jackson's rookie year is the number of targets, statistically, and Jackson's hype far exceeded Smith's. Smith had a better catch rate, on more deep targets, more TDs, and a higher per target/catch rate.

Flacco is not Ben, but Smith didn't need him to be to accrue his very impressive stats.

 
65/1057/7 on 115 targets (15 games)

54/959/8 on 95 targets (13 games)

50/841/7 on 95 targets (14 games)

All 3 of those were rookies this year. Two of those guys are in most people's top 10's if not top 5's of all WRs. The other isn't ranked in the top 30 for most.

 
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He went with the 71st pick in our startup draft (which included rookies and devs). I think that's pretty fair for him. Roughly 30 WRs were drafted ahead of him. Most of them have either accomplished more or are more highly touted as prospects.

Smith had a really good rookie year. Much better than I expected. Long term, I still wonder if he's a one trick pony. His speed is not going away any time soon, but teams will find ways to limit the deep stuff. At that point we'll find out whether he's really going to be a WR1 in the NFL or just a useful WR2 type.

 
65/1057/7 on 115 targets (15 games)54/959/8 on 95 targets (13 games)50/841/7 on 95 targets (14 games)All 3 of those were rookies this year. Two of those guys are in most people's top 10's if not top 5's of all WRs. The other isn't ranked in the top 30 for most.
I like and own Torrey Smith but the reason for that discrepency is a very bug chunk of his production came in one game.
 
The only thing more impressive about Jackson's rookie year is the number of targets, statistically, and Jackson's hype far exceeded Smith's. Smith had a better catch rate, on more deep targets, more TDs, and a higher per target/catch rate.
Jackson is a special talent and Smith is not. That doesn't even mean that he won't outscore DeSean going forward. He could. The issues with DeSean are well known and a separate issue. Smith has a 5th gear and he can use it. That doesn't make him Jackson or Wallace despite what the numbers tell you. Mark Clayton had okay years in Baltimore too.
 
Player that can go deep as often as these two do, and still maintain a respectable catch rate, win games for their NFL teams. When players win games, they are used more and continue producing.
I agree and think the comparison is spot on when you consider how they are used strategically in the context of the offense. I watched all the Raven games this season and the Flacco/Smith connection is effective. Big arm + deep speed puts a lot of pressure on opponents. Generally speaking Flacco gets disrespected much more than is warranted, people confuse fantasy with reality and tend to sleep on his real life ability. There is a lot to like about him when looking at his game with an unbiased eye and his growth with Torrey Smith as a legit deep threat is encouraging.
 
Jackson is a special talent and Smith is not. That doesn't even mean that he won't outscore DeSean going forward. He could. The issues with DeSean are well known and a separate issue. Smith has a 5th gear and he can use it. That doesn't make him Jackson or Wallace despite what the numbers tell you. Mark Clayton had okay years in Baltimore too.
Tell me what makes DeSean a special talent, that Smith doesn't also possess. He had a better rookie year than both Jackson and Wallace with a lesser QB. If I made this thread in 2009, Wallace wouldn't be the special talent that DeSean was at the time. Mark Clayton is not relevant to this conversation. I am talking about Smith ability to catch 50% of his targets, 50% of which are on deep routes. That is what caught my eye, more so than the TDs and yardage.
 
65/1057/7 on 115 targets (15 games)54/959/8 on 95 targets (13 games)50/841/7 on 95 targets (14 games)All 3 of those were rookies this year. Two of those guys are in most people's top 10's if not top 5's of all WRs. The other isn't ranked in the top 30 for most.
I like and own Torrey Smith but the reason for that discrepency is a very bug chunk of his production came in one game.
Very true. But, to also be fair, Jones had a monster game account for a good amount of his too.That said, of course I value Green and Jones over Smith; I value them over Jackson and Wallace too.
 
Tell me what makes DeSean a special talent, that Smith doesn't also possess. He had a better rookie year than both Jackson and Wallace with a lesser QB.
More elusive. More speed. More natural football player.
If I made this thread in 2009, Wallace wouldn't be the special talent that DeSean was at the time.
Wallace was not as limited a player his rookie year as Torrey was. He was a WR3 on a team with Santonio and a slightly younger Ward. He took a situational role but had shown he earned Ben's trust on a variety of plays and routes from W1 of that year. Torrey has talent and Baltimore found a way to exploit it, but he still was limited and will not "break out" until he matures a whole lot.
 
Tell me what makes DeSean a special talent, that Smith doesn't also possess. He had a better rookie year than both Jackson and Wallace with a lesser QB.
More elusive. More speed. More natural football player.
If I made this thread in 2009, Wallace wouldn't be the special talent that DeSean was at the time.
Wallace was not as limited a player his rookie year as Torrey was. He was a WR3 on a team with Santonio and a slightly younger Ward. He took a situational role but had shown he earned Ben's trust on a variety of plays and routes from W1 of that year. Torrey has talent and Baltimore found a way to exploit it, but he still was limited and will not "break out" until he matures a whole lot.
I agree with you re:Jackson. Although, Smith has an advantage when it comes to size/build. Smith and Wallace went deep just as much as the other. How was Wallace less limited? The stats show that they were in the same role and performed equally. I give the nod to Smith, because similar efficiency on higher targets is harder to do.
 
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.

 
65/1057/7 on 115 targets (15 games)54/959/8 on 95 targets (13 games)50/841/7 on 95 targets (14 games)All 3 of those were rookies this year. Two of those guys are in most people's top 10's if not top 5's of all WRs. The other isn't ranked in the top 30 for most.
I like and own Torrey Smith but the reason for that discrepency is a very bug chunk of his production came in one game.
Even worse, it was one quarter.
 
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
You could be right - being a number 1 fantasy WR and NFL WR are two different things. He might always be a 1A/1B type of guy, much like DeSean and, maybe even Wallace. But - and I did see Torrey drop some balls - his catch rate was very good considering all things.
 
Smith and Wallace went deep just as much as the other. How was Wallace less limited? The stats show that they were in the same role and performed equally. I give the nod to Smith, because similar efficiency on higher targets is harder to do.
Wallace's rookie stats were limited by having players entrenched ahead of him. Smith's were limited by his learning curve. 2009, Pittsburgh coming off a SB win, any less of a WR would have been invisible. Smith on the 2009 Steelers is invisible.
 
Smith and Wallace went deep just as much as the other. How was Wallace less limited? The stats show that they were in the same role and performed equally. I give the nod to Smith, because similar efficiency on higher targets is harder to do.
Wallace's rookie stats were limited by having players entrenched ahead of him. Smith's were limited by his learning curve. 2009, Pittsburgh coming off a SB win, any less of a WR would have been invisible. Smith on the 2009 Steelers is invisible.
I think you are wrong - I think the Steelers would have used Smith as they did Wallace.Also - I am talking about per target stats. Having players entrenched ahead of you has nothing to do with what happens when you are targeted. Stats show they ran an equal number of deep routes. That doesn't match your claim that Smith was more limited.
 
I think you are wrong - I think the Steelers would have used Smith as they did Wallace.
The Ravens didn't even want to use Smith as much as the 09 Steelers used Wallace.
Also - I am talking about per target stats. Having players entrenched ahead of you has nothing to do with what happens when you are targeted. Stats show they ran an equal number of deep routes. That doesn't match your claim that Smith was more limited.
What short/intermediate routes did Smith run and how effective was he? There are a couple short routes Smith does well. Like the TD vs. NE in the playoffs. When Boldin was out, and they had to lean on Smith, it was terrible. Look at his stats in those games. Short passes to Smith went nowhere.Wallace was effective in that role going back to 2009, he just wasn't used in it much because they leaned a lot on Holmes that year. Check Holmes' success on 1st down that year. He didn't have to fill that role because they had someone filling that role at an elite level. When he was used in that role, he did well. Look at the 2009 W3 game vs. Cincy when Wallace was used to move the sticks. Check the 2009 W1 grab against TEN in the 4th QTR. Check the TD vs. Denver where he stays alive and comes back for the ball.Wallace was more of a "football player" coming out. Smith is a great athlete. He performed better than most expected. His ceiling is just as high as Wallace's current value or a guy like Kendall. But the potential breakout is down the road, not around the corner.
 
I think you are wrong - I think the Steelers would have used Smith as they did Wallace.
The Ravens didn't even want to use Smith as much as the 09 Steelers used Wallace.
Also - I am talking about per target stats. Having players entrenched ahead of you has nothing to do with what happens when you are targeted. Stats show they ran an equal number of deep routes. That doesn't match your claim that Smith was more limited.
What short/intermediate routes did Smith run and how effective was he? There are a couple short routes Smith does well. Like the TD vs. NE in the playoffs. When Boldin was out, and they had to lean on Smith, it was terrible. Look at his stats in those games. Short passes to Smith went nowhere.Wallace was effective in that role going back to 2009, he just wasn't used in it much because they leaned a lot on Holmes that year. Check Holmes' success on 1st down that year. He didn't have to fill that role because they had someone filling that role at an elite level. When he was used in that role, he did well. Look at the 2009 W3 game vs. Cincy when Wallace was used to move the sticks. Check the 2009 W1 grab against TEN in the 4th QTR. Check the TD vs. Denver where he stays alive and comes back for the ball.Wallace was more of a "football player" coming out. Smith is a great athlete. He performed better than most expected. His ceiling is just as high as Wallace's current value or a guy like Kendall. But the potential breakout is down the road, not around the corner.
I don't have Wallace's 2009 year charted. But you can't claim to know that against the 2011 Houston Texans, as the #1 WR, Wallace would have done better than Smith did. The other game that Boldin missed: 3 receptions on 5 targets, 82 yards and a touchdown. I'll take that against a #1 CB, as a teams first option. Again: Wallace and Smith ran the same amount of deep routes (%) and performed equally. Smith was just as efficiant, in all routes, as Wallace was as a rookie. You can't use 2-3 catches that you happen to remember as proof concrete enough to suggest that stat as misleading.
 
I would think Wallace had CB3/4's against him versus Torrey Smith had CB2/3's on him.
Not entirely true due to the role Ward filled. Here's a 2010 link about Wallace stating as much.Smith exploited bad CBs last year. To his credit. Wallace has done fine against CB1s since 2009.
I just remember Wallace winning the game vs Green Bay his rookie year against a nobody CB.
 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
 
I think Coop is onto something here.

I would also like to add that there is a good chance that Smith gets better at catching those deep balls from experience. I mean this was his first year with Flacco, how often has he been around a guy who can throw the ball deep like Joe can? The same goes for Joe now that he has a player like Smith to chuck it deep to. Is it crazy to think that two young players whose strengths compliment each others so well won't get better? Joe puts it out there for him to run and go get. These are not jump ball bombs, they are in stride on target balls thrown when Smith is "even and leavin" from what I recall.

Coop, do you have any stats on how many deep balls intended for Smith were picked, broken up, dropped? I'm curious to examine how safe of a play it is given how devastating a result it can yield.

I do not see any major problems with Smith's hands or catching ability. It's not perfect, but it's good enough that he's far from a liability. I would like to see him catch a higher % of targets, but if he does what he did last season it's still a good idea to take shots deep.

 
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'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
Why don't you show the ones he can't track and adjust to.

Smith is more Pierre Garcon than Mike Wallace. Explosive on deep routes and bubble screens with suspect hands due to poor technique.

 
'Concept Coop said:
'Hoosier16 said:
Even worse, it was one quarter.
Avanced stats measure a WR per target, and even route run. Discount his raw numbers, if you wish. But they have little to do with my case.
Last year, Mike Thomas was 6th and the year before, Meachem was 9th and Murphy was 12th. When I look at WPA in prior years, I don't see any predictive value.
 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
Why don't you show the ones he can't track and adjust to.

Smith is more Pierre Garcon than Mike Wallace. Explosive on deep routes and bubble screens with suspect hands due to poor technique.
Why don't you think? Have you searched for youtube videos of players that showcase all their drops? Don't be ridiculous. Why bother asking such a stupid question?There was an assertion above that I replied to that "he is not a pure catcher" due to his small hands. That highlight video of just his rookie year shows he can more than adequately catch the ball just fine with his hands. Not many body catches there at all.

As to your nonsense about his not being able to track and adjust, that's actually where Torrey Smith excels. Even if he does have questionable hands, which remains to be seen, his ball tracking skills and ability to adjust to the ball are elite. In fact, that's his greatest attribute as a WR. If you want to question his hands, you'd get much more of a pass than questioning his ball tracking skills.

 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
Why don't you show the ones he can't track and adjust to.

Smith is more Pierre Garcon than Mike Wallace. Explosive on deep routes and bubble screens with suspect hands due to poor technique.
Why don't you think? Have you searched for youtube videos of players that showcase all their drops? Don't be ridiculous. Why bother asking such a stupid question?There was an assertion above that I replied to that "he is not a pure catcher" due to his small hands. That highlight video of just his rookie year shows he can more than adequately catch the ball just fine with his hands. Not many body catches there at all.

As to your nonsense about his not being able to track and adjust, that's actually where Torrey Smith excels. Even if he does have questionable hands, which remains to be seen, his ball tracking skills and ability to adjust to the ball are elite. In fact, that's his greatest attribute as a WR. If you want to question his hands, you'd get much more of a pass than questioning his ball tracking skills.
You lost all credibility when you said his ball tracking is elite. It makes no sense whatsoever to say his hands are questionable yet ball tracking is elite. Is he catching the ball with his eyes? What stupid statement.
 
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'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
Why don't you show the ones he can't track and adjust to.

Smith is more Pierre Garcon than Mike Wallace. Explosive on deep routes and bubble screens with suspect hands due to poor technique.
Why don't you think? Have you searched for youtube videos of players that showcase all their drops? Don't be ridiculous. Why bother asking such a stupid question?There was an assertion above that I replied to that "he is not a pure catcher" due to his small hands. That highlight video of just his rookie year shows he can more than adequately catch the ball just fine with his hands. Not many body catches there at all.

As to your nonsense about his not being able to track and adjust, that's actually where Torrey Smith excels. Even if he does have questionable hands, which remains to be seen, his ball tracking skills and ability to adjust to the ball are elite. In fact, that's his greatest attribute as a WR. If you want to question his hands, you'd get much more of a pass than questioning his ball tracking skills.
You lost all credibility when you said his ball tracking is elite. It makes no sense whatsoever to say his hands are questionable yet ball tracking is elite. Is he catching the ball with his eyes? What stupid statement.
"A mad man sees what he sees."
 
I just traded Smith for DJax straight up. The other owner made the offer and I accepted. DJax may be a headache but I am willing to take the chance that he will get it together mentally.

 
'Concept Coop said:
The other game that Boldin missed: 3 receptions on 5 targets, 82 yards and a touchdown. I'll take that against a #1 CB, as a teams first option.
If you mean the NE game, Boldin started and had 100 yards. NE secondary is terrible. Remember when they put Edelman back there because they didn't have anything else?I give Smith all the credit for the NE TD. For the 2nd game winning TD vs. PIT. For going ape all over STL. The talent is there and I don't disagree about value/ranking. Just think Wallace was further along.
You can't use 2-3 catches that you happen to remember as proof concrete enough to suggest that stat as misleading.
Game tape is more important that stats. Coverage from beat reporters is more important than stats.
 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
Why don't you show the ones he can't track and adjust to.

Smith is more Pierre Garcon than Mike Wallace. Explosive on deep routes and bubble screens with suspect hands due to poor technique.
Why don't you think? Have you searched for youtube videos of players that showcase all their drops? Don't be ridiculous. Why bother asking such a stupid question?There was an assertion above that I replied to that "he is not a pure catcher" due to his small hands. That highlight video of just his rookie year shows he can more than adequately catch the ball just fine with his hands. Not many body catches there at all.

As to your nonsense about his not being able to track and adjust, that's actually where Torrey Smith excels. Even if he does have questionable hands, which remains to be seen, his ball tracking skills and ability to adjust to the ball are elite. In fact, that's his greatest attribute as a WR. If you want to question his hands, you'd get much more of a pass than questioning his ball tracking skills.
You lost all credibility when you said his ball tracking is elite. It makes no sense whatsoever to say his hands are questionable yet ball tracking is elite. Is he catching the ball with his eyes? What stupid statement.
Tracking=Locating the ball and getting into a position to catch it
 
Why don't you show the ones he can't track and adjust to.Smith is more Pierre Garcon than Mike Wallace. Explosive on deep routes and bubble screens with suspect hands due to poor technique.
This doesn't make sense. His rookie year, he caught the same % of balls as Wallace, and they both went deep at an equal rate. Poor technique or not, a guy that can do what Smith did shouldn't be written of as Pierre Garcon. Pierre Garcon isn't close to Smith, using advanced metrics - never has been.
 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
I made this "post the highlight reel" mistake in Mike Williams' threads after his rookie season too. :bag:
 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
I made this "post the highlight reel" mistake in Mike Williams' threads after his rookie season too. :bag:
Apples to Oranges IMO.Tampa Mike caught 50% of his passes and is a possession WR.

Torrey Smith caught 50% of his passes and is a deep threat.

 
'Crippler said:
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
I made this "post the highlight reel" mistake in Mike Williams' threads after his rookie season too. :bag:
Apples to Oranges IMO.Tampa Mike caught 50% of his passes and is a possession WR.

Torrey Smith caught 50% of his passes and is a deep threat.
Not comparing the two players. Just the use of a highlight reel to make an argument about how good a player is.
 
I can tell you what stops me on thinking Torrey Smith will ever be a #1 guy. His hands. They are real small and he is not a pure catcher. He will get his bombs for sure but is not a go to type of WR. He needs a Boldin type of WR beside him to be effective IMO. Good #2 WR at most.
Yeah, his hands are terrible
I made this "post the highlight reel" mistake in Mike Williams' threads after his rookie season too. :bag:
Apples to Oranges IMO.Tampa Mike caught 50% of his passes and is a possession WR.

Torrey Smith caught 50% of his passes and is a deep threat.
Not comparing the two players. Just the use of a highlight reel to make an argument about how good a player is.
Valid Point
 
I have a hunch Torrey was one of the bigger chunks of Fool's Gold of the past season. The majority of his stats came from slipping behind everybody and in today's NFL, defenses tend to adjust to that fairly quickly. Now that doesn't mean he can't improve as an intermediate receiver over the next few years and become a more complete player.

 

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