24 replies to this topic

[Jene Bramel]

I wrote a series for Matt Waldman's RSP blog this week analyzing concerns I have with Quinton Coples' technique. The links posted in the Shark Pool this week (there's some good discussion in those threads if you're interested) and called out on Twitter, but there may be a handful of you who only drop into this forum so I figured I'd post the links here, too.

Part I Importance of Pad Level
Part II Pad Level and Pass Rush
Part III Jason Pierre-Paul compare and contrast

[ebcpastor2004]

These were awesome reads. Thanks! Speaking as someone who would like to hit on the next JPP, how likely do you think it is that QC makes the necessary adjustments? And where would you target him in a rookie draft, zealots scoring?

[Jene Bramel]

These were awesome reads. Thanks! Speaking as someone who would like to hit on the next JPP, how likely do you think it is that QC makes the necessary adjustments? And where would you target him in a rookie draft, zealots scoring?

The adjustments shouldn't be too hard to make. The bigger question for me is whether he's strong enough to win against NFL-level offensive tackles consistently. His bull rush and swim move was dominant at UNC and at the Senior Bowl, but it's a different world on Sundays. I used JPP as a comparison only because Coples said that's who he most resembled when asked at the Senior Bowl. I don't think Coples is that explosive and I doubt he'll become the edge rusher JPP has become. I'm never comfortable putting a draft target on a rookie before we see where they go in the draft, but it's very likely that he'll be the best IDP DL prospect in at least two seasons. I liked Sheard a lot last year and Morgan the year before, but had mid-3rd grades on both. Mario Williams is probably the last DE I had a high 2nd or better fantasy grade on. Coples, in a good situation with strong post-draft comments from his new coaches, will probably get a mid-late 2nd round fantasy grade. But if Coples gets drafted by a team that uses a lot of 3-4, he takes a half-tier hit (or worse).

[JoeSteeler]

[Drop]

What would you have to see from this guy to make you think he'll be a bust?

[Jene Bramel]

What would you have to see from this guy to make you think he'll be a bust?

Generally speaking: Inability to dominate against inferior competition. Lack of a single elite skill. Evidence that he's unable to translate his elite measurables to live play. Reports of repeated episodes of immaturity on and off the field. Medical concerns. Specific regarding Coples, my primary concern is whether his functional strength and athleticism will translate against the much better offensive tackles he'll face in the NFL. If he's a top ten draft pick and just holds his own in that regard, he may well end up being considered a bust. I've been thinking about the Jamaal Anderson comparison a lot. I went back and read my summary of his scouting reports and he was made to sound more athletic than I remember him ever looking as a pro. I still think the continuum includes Julius Peppers on the upside, but it won't be entirely shocking if he ends up closer to the Anderson end of that spectrum.

[Drop]

Here is an article on DLs heading into the combine. There are 3 videos on the page, the first 2 have some interesting comments on Coples from Bucky Brooks and Mike Mayock. http://www.nfl.com/c...ntering-combine

[Bracie Smathers]

Here is an article on DLs heading into the combine. There are 3 videos on the page, the first 2 have some interesting comments on Coples from Bucky Brooks and Mike Mayock. http://www.nfl.com/c...ntering-combine

Having read and digested the entire Coples series complete with frame-by-frame photos used to display each term we can see the, size, strength, and athleticism. We also see the weakness with technique and in the comparison with JPP we see he simply lacks some things that would point to having the same degree of success that a top-ten drafted DE with his physical skills would suggest. It would be easy to overlook Coples as a top-ten prospect HOWEVER.... Mike Mayok and others keep noting how dominant Coples was as a DT two years ago and it hit me... He is a powerful and athletic DT because his strengths are exceptional in the short-game. He can overpower at the point of attack and collapse the pocket. If he were utilized inside he wouldn't have to get around an OT and flatten out his path to the QB. Bucky Brooks mentioned he should be used inside and Mayok mentioned how his senior tape at DE was not impressive but when he looked back at the tape from 2010 he saw a dominating DT and that is where I think Coples could dominate. At the defensive tackle position. What does Jene think of evaluating Coples as a DT? It seems the skill set at DT fits Coples game better than trying to square-peg-round-hole him as an edge rushing DE.

[ninerfanatic492000]

These were awesome reads. Thanks! Speaking as someone who would like to hit on the next JPP, how likely do you think it is that QC makes the necessary adjustments? And where would you target him in a rookie draft, zealots scoring?

The adjustments shouldn't be too hard to make. The bigger question for me is whether he's strong enough to win against NFL-level offensive tackles consistently. His bull rush and swim move was dominant at UNC and at the Senior Bowl, but it's a different world on Sundays. I used JPP as a comparison only because Coples said that's who he most resembled when asked at the Senior Bowl. I don't think Coples is that explosive and I doubt he'll become the edge rusher JPP has become. I'm never comfortable putting a draft target on a rookie before we see where they go in the draft, but it's very likely that he'll be the best IDP DL prospect in at least two seasons. I liked Sheard a lot last year and Morgan the year before, but had mid-3rd grades on both. Mario Williams is probably the last DE I had a high 2nd or better fantasy grade on. Coples, in a good situation with strong post-draft comments from his new coaches, will probably get a mid-late 2nd round fantasy grade. But if Coples gets drafted by a team that uses a lot of 3-4, he takes a half-tier hit (or worse).

The real question before getting too deep in JPP comparisons is how many backflips can he do?

[Jene Bramel]

What does Jene think of evaluating Coples as a DT? It seems the skill set at DT fits Coples game better than trying to square-peg-round-hole him as an edge rushing DE.

I don't think Coples is a square peg in a round hole at DE. He doesn't have to develop a speed rush to be an effective pass rusher. I think he would work fine as a strong side defensive end -- again with the technique refinements we've discussed regarding his pad level. It's possible that he can become effective in pass rush solely working off a bull rush and countering from there. He's unlikely to become a stud double digit sacker without the element of speed off the edge, but there's always room for a 45-8 all-around LDE in a 4-3. I don't think I'd like Coples inside as an every-down 3-technique, but he's a perfect candidate (with the success of his bull rush) to isolate on a guard as a 3-tech in subpackages/passing situations. That's becoming more and more common in recent years (Justin Tuck and many other base DE kick inside on passing downs) and I'd think a likely way that Coples' future team uses him in the nickel.

[Drop]

What does Jene think of evaluating Coples as a DT? It seems the skill set at DT fits Coples game better than trying to square-peg-round-hole him as an edge rushing DE.

I don't think Coples is a square peg in a round hole at DE. He doesn't have to develop a speed rush to be an effective pass rusher. I think he would work fine as a strong side defensive end -- again with the technique refinements we've discussed regarding his pad level. It's possible that he can become effective in pass rush solely working off a bull rush and countering from there. He's unlikely to become a stud double digit sacker without the element of speed off the edge, but there's always room for a 45-8 all-around LDE in a 4-3. I don't think I'd like Coples inside as an every-down 3-technique, but he's a perfect candidate (with the success of his bull rush) to isolate on a guard as a 3-tech in subpackages/passing situations. That's becoming more and more common in recent years (Justin Tuck and many other base DE kick inside on passing downs) and I'd think a likely way that Coples' future team uses him in the nickel.

If he doesn't develop a speed rush I don't see him being an effective pass rusher. NFL OTs usually struggle against speed more than anything else. If DEs aren't speed rushers they are usually technicians. I don't see Coples as much of a technician right now. So if his NFL success is based on his bull rush aren't you worried about him not having the motor for that given his college tape? This whole discussion is a wonderful case study that I will be following closely for years to see how things unfold. So once again thanks for all your thoughts and film breakdown.

[Drop]

Combine profile: http://www.nfl.com/c...ples?id=2532818 I agree with much of the scouting report on that page. I have recently watched more game film on Coples as well as some Senior Bowl practice footage. There is no doubt that his value increases when guided by "planet theory" because there just aren't many guys that big and athletic on the planet. I also think that many of his flaws are correctable, I see no fatal flaws in his game in terms of physical limitations. The high pad level, bad angles, misreading keys on fakes etc, all coachable stuff. He's tricky to project because I think that if the right coach gets in his ear a light can go on and things will click quickly. The real problem I have on film is his effort. It's too indicative of a loser. This sort of thing tends to stick with players in my experience whether they are the biggest or smallest player. It's not the size of the dog in the fight... Getting by on being bigger and stronger is going to end if he becomes a starter in the NFL and is playing in meaningful games against top players from strong teams. He will no longer be physically imposing in a relative sense and I see his game (or lack thereof) as being the type of game that gets imposed on. OTs in the NFL are generally very big, strong, athletic, and SMART players. You aren't going to beat them with sloppy technique and no motor just because you are big and can move. While he physically measures up, mentally he approaches plays poorly and it shows on film. I don't think he'll ever be the guy, but rather just a guy. Not a total wash out, but just a guy. If he becomes an impact player he'll look totally different on film than he does now. I tend to observe players that are dogs remaining dogs and those that are not usually never become them. Competition is not just a physical thing. I feel that needs to be stated again for emphasis in the case of Coples. Competition is not just a physical thing.

[Drop]

16 Games 22 Tackles + 8 Assists5.5 Sacks2 Pass Def0 Forced Fumbles0 InterceptionsI think Q held his own for the most part. He doesn't have the quickness or agility to wreck havoc and control the LOS, but he was able to use his strength and athleticism to do his job most of the time. I did not see flashes of greatness, although it's only his rookie season and he deserves time to grow as an NFL defensive lineman. I still do not view him as being an impact player because he doesn't have the quickness, agility, and motor to chase players down and crush them. He'll play his gap assignment and if he can make a tackle he probably will, but his burst and range are not on par with the optimism his frame brings. I wouldn't say he's a bust, I'll keep an eye on him for the next season or two in order to see if his fundamentals are improving or not. I still think he plays too high.

[saintfool]

he started to show some productivity late in the season with 3.5 sacks in his last four games. i tend to think he'll only be as good as the coaching around him. the jets don't look like candidates to improve anytime soon.

[Drop]

Rex Ryan is unhappy with Coples' work ethic...

 

http://www.nfl.com/n...weightroom-work

[saintfool]

Rex Ryan is unhappy with Coples' work ethic...

 

http://www.nfl.com/n...weightroom-work

 

 

coach speak and non-story until camp, i think.

[Drop]

I don't want to make too much of it and I will still give Coples the benefit of the doubt, but in my experience the great ones motivation comes from within.  If Rex has to use the media, there is an underlying problem.  A problem that is consistent with some of the concerns he had coming into the league.  The saga continues...        

[BigSteelThrill]

I don't want to make too much of it and I will still give Coples the benefit of the doubt, but in my experience the great ones motivation comes from within.  If Rex has to use the media, there is an underlying problem.  A problem that is consistent with some of the concerns he had coming into the league.  The saga continues...        

 

Many great players are not gym-rats though.

That's as far as I took it. As Ryan said he is looking for anything to knock Coples on, because he expects the world from him.

[Drop]

What do you think makes someone great though?

[BigSteelThrill]

What do you think makes someone great though?

 

For some/many?  Its all about competition. 

And many find the weight room how they find a crossword puzzle.

Or how about nutrition?  Im sure plenty of great players eat burgers and pizza 24/7.

Edited by BigSteelThrill, 14 May 2013 - 07:52 PM.

[saintfool]

he's just staying on him. coples needs it.

[bigreese82]

what does it look like he will be listed as on MFL..DE or LB

and when do the Final Position Designations normally come?

[5-ish Finkle]

He's a DE right now.

 

I think they do the last updates late June/earl August, IIRC.  Not sure though.

[Langly]

A LB designation all but kills his fantasy value imo

[5-ish Finkle]

Totally agree.