'Shutout said:
'az_prof said:
'Just Win Baby said:
'finito said:
'Shutout said:
*Fantasy alert: Robert Meachem never has had more than 45 catches and 722 yards in a season, but his new team believes he is capable of much more. In fact, Chargers coach Norv Turner tells me he wouldn’t be surprised to see Meachem with between 60 and 70 catches and more than 1,000 receiving yards. “Look at the history of the offense, the things we’ve done,” Turner said. “Meachem is capable of giving us that stat production if he can play a complete season.” Why hasn’t he done it in five NFL seasons in New Orleans? “He has been in an offense where he’s one of five guys, and they spread the ball out,” Turner said. “He hasn’t been the focal point. I think we try to be balanced, but he will get opportunities to be a big play receiver up the field.”
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-1060.html
I'll file this one under "believe it when I see it". I have a hard time thinking that the Chargers are going to do something for Meachem that they wouldn't do for VJAX, given that Gates is still there, Floyd is still there, and Ryan Matthews is just getting started. Maybe Turned is able to identify Meachem's situations so easily because they do the exact same thing in San Diego that the Saints do.
What wouldn't they do for VJax? He's had more than 60 catches and 1k with the Chargers.
Meachem has never had more than 73 targets in a season in New Orleans. VJax got 107 in 15 games in 2009 and 114 in 16 games last year, those being his last two full time seasons in San Diego. His 2009 pace scales to 114 targets in 16 games, so the Chargers were consistent in targeting him. Meachem should get a minimum of 100 targets next season if he stays healthy.
Meachem had 129/1980/20 receiving on 203 targets over the past three seasons in New Orleans. Scaling this to 100 targets yields 64/975/10. The TDs might be inflated slightly because he had an unusually high total in 2009. But these numbers are not inconsistent with Jackson's numbers in 2008 (59/1098/7), 2009 (68/1167/9), and 2011 (60/1106/9).
I could easily see Meachem with 60/1000/8, or something similar, which is right in line with Norv's comment.
This is a great analysis and as I see it sets his LOW SIDE--assuming no injury. In my PPR league, it would give him 208 fantasy points, and rank him at WR20, just behind Dez Bryant. But I could see his upside being close to what VJax did in 2009--which would put Meachem at WR12.
I really think you guys are seeing this through rose colored glasses (Disclaimer: I don't own either meachem or VJAX in any league so I'm just observing and opinioning here).I think you guys are trying to extrapolate too many numbers based on Mechem in a different place and team and as a comparative to VJAX. These guys are completely different. VJAX is much more physical and much more a red zone target. A lot of times, Rivers gave him that "throw it up and get it" ball and I just don't think that will consistently be the case for Meachem.
And you have to remember, this is a team that still has
Gates (so there is your #1 read all day long...Rivers loves this guy). And you can't discount the fact that
Matthews is really coming on,
Floyd is still there and likely has a better rapport with Rivers in terms of familiarity. And then you have a bright up and comer in
Brown who showed some good stuff and you also have a slot weapon in
Royal that just signed.
So, regardless of what Turner spoke, can you really see Meachem being treated like a focal point? Or does it make sense that its going to continue to be a lot more balanced?
Looking at it another way, in order to get the same amount of targets that VJAX got last year (114), they have to target him ~7 times a game. Ok,so Meachem has this speed but he's not anywhere close to being the red zone target VJAX was and unlikely that he is a better red Zone target than Gates, Brown, or Floyd (assuming they pass instead of run). So, there is one aspect that is limited. So to get those targets, you have to start getting them off long bombs (that is certainly likely) and the short range stuff (are they going to favor him over Royal, Floyd, and Brown consistently)?
So, again, it just looks to me like this is going to be more of the same for Meachem. About 70 targets with results being those up and down big games when he connects on the bombs and the pedestrain games when he doesn't.
If nothing else, don't you have to think that if Meachem really had the ability to be a focal point guy with that many targets, that Brees would have made that happen already (if he saw Meachem had this kind of talent)? So it likely wasn't there or someone has to say "well, he was held back by the presence of Colston, the running game, and, last year, Graham. Ok. Does that sound any different than playing with Gates, Matthews, Floyd, Brown, Royal?
In terms of what the Saints thought of him, wouldn't it make sense that if they truly saw him as a guy capable of doing what Turner suggests, that the Saints may have kept the younger Meachem instead of the older Colston who has 5+ knee surgeries?
I think he is a fine player and his numbers will make him an asset to fantasy teams; just not at the price you will have to buy/draft him to get him because of the hype. Sometimes players go to different teams and the buzz is valid. A WR goes from a poor QB to a Tom Brady. Or conversely, a guy like Foster if he went from the Texans to the Bills. But this kind of a move is lateral, at best. There just isn't a scenario where this guy goes from being a guy who shares on a balanced attack to being in a situation like Calvin Johnson has or something.
You wrote a lot and I am trying to break this down into basic claims. As I see it your argument is this:a) Let's discount what the HC said and look at Meachem's play to determine how much he will be used in 2012
b)Meachem won't get as many red zone targets because he isn't as good a red zone receiver; therefore, to reach the same number of targets as Jackson he will have to catch more bombs and short stuff. This is unlikely because....? Not really clear.
c) Here is the real argument, and it is the same one that has been repeated from the beginning; if Meachem were that good wouldn't he have forced Brees to throw it to him more? In other words, if he is going to be a star in SD he would have already done it in NO.
d) The counter claim is that NO had a more diversified offense designed not to feature any one. But isn't SD just as diversified full of great targets?
e)Why didn't NO keep him instead of Colston?
f) The QBs are about the same so Meachem doesn't get a bump from going to a "better" QB.
Ok,let's break this down. It IS true that HC speak is not the most reliable predictor. But it isn't something to be discounted completely. At a minimum, when you look at what SD paid to get Meachem and then the HC words, it sounds like SD plans to use Meachem a lot. They certainly see him as more of a complete receiver than most in here. Now, that doesn't mean he will be as good as Turner says, but I don't think they signed Meachem to that contract if they thought Floyd and Brown were as good as some of you.
As for the claim that Meachem is not a red zone target, well, I don't see any evidence of that here beyond opinion. Again, he was one of as many as 6 or 7 targets in NO, but he certainly caught a lot of TDs. I could post highlights, but I do recall him catching quite a few short, crossing patterns in the EZ. I didn't see him catching a whole lot of corner fades passes or jump passes, but he is a tall receiver. One of his strengths has been having a nose for the EZ; in fact, his TD to catch ratio is out of this world.
The real argument is ©. This argument comes from basic fantasy football 101; I haven't seen this guy be a superstar yet so why will that change now? The answer: he is on a new team with a new role. He was not asked to be a featured WR in NO. He is being asked to be one in SD.
No, SD does NOT have as diversified an attack as NO, and NO, their receiving corps is NOT nearly as deep. Brown is a young receiver with upside, but he is not a proven star--not even close. Floyd is an old receiver who is a complementary player. Neither guy would have cracked the top 4 WRs in NO the past four years. Gates is good but aging. If Rivers and SD is going to have production close to what they historically have done, then Meachem will have to catch at least 1000 yards. It could be that Meachem fails, but my take is that Rivers is in fact a great QB and will make Meachem better.
As for the QB's being equal and therefore there being no bump, it is true that they are equal in ability, but not in style. Rivers is much more likely to favor one or two receiving targets whereas Brees always spreads the ball around. Meachem's role will change in terms of the sort of routes he is going to be asked to run and his QB will be looking for him first or second.
All in all, the negative argument seems to hinge on the claim that if Meachem were a WR2 then he would have done it by now. But, this disregards how often players change teams, change roles, change teammates, and flourish. I just don't see how the WR1 in an offense with a QB as good as Rivers does not put up at least 60/1000/8.
I think Meachem will surprise some people but that's the fun of this stuff.
I'm sure we gave readers enough point and counter point to give it a good think and that's probably enough. I will toss in two quick thoughts, just to clarify:
