85 replies to this topic

[dhockster]

Fact: Mario Williams was a #1 overall pick Fact: Mario Williams is a very good pass rusher Fact: Mario Williams played hurt in 2009 with Groin and Shoulder injuries, missed 3 games in 2010 due to a sports hernia, and missed 11 games in 2011 with a torn pectoral muscle. Fact: Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years. Fact: Mario Williams has never been "the guy" that other teams have to be aware of every time he is on the field. Fact: Mario Williams will earn top free agent dollars because teams are so desperate to rush the passer. Speculation: Mario Williams will not live up to expectations for whatever team signs him, either because of injury or just not having the make-up to be a true superstar. So fans who covet Mario Williams beware. You may be paying top dollar for a very good, not great, pass rusher who has a significant injury history.

Edited by dhockster, 09 March 2012 - 08:25 AM.

[Jason Wood]

I certainly think any veteran free agent signing brings a lot more risk than everyone wants to think. Looking at my own team, we were the talk of the town last year for signing Nnamdi, who was far and away the consensus top defensive FA available. And yet, a few questioned how he would fit into our scheme. Sure enough, he struggled at times and ABSOLUTELY looked nothing like a guy everyone was giddy to commit 8-figures of comp per annum. And that's for a guy who didn't have injury questions. I'm not saying Nnamdi won't bounce back this year, but I am agreeing with you that signing Williams to a monster deal is no guarantee of a smart allocation of salary cap space.

[babydemon90]

Fact: Mario Williams was a #1 overall pick Fact: Mario Williams is a very good pass rusher Fact: Mario Williams played hurt in 2009 with Groin and Shoulder injuries, missed 3 games in 2010 due to a sports hernia, and missed 11 games in 2011 with a torn pectoral muscle. Because of those injuries, Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years. Fact: Mario Williams has never been "the guy" that other teams have to be aware of every time he is on the field. Fact: Mario Williams will earn top free agent dollars because teams are so desperate to rush the passer. Speculation: Mario Williams will not live up to expectations for whatever team signs him, either because of injury or just not having the make-up to be a true superstar. So fans who covet Mario Williams beware. You may be paying top dollar for a very good, not great, pass rusher who has a significant injury history.

" Because of those injuries, Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years." Umm...that sentence is not a fact. "Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years" would be the fact. You're stating a causal relationship which is not true. If you dragged a guy off the street, and gave him those injuries, he would not have 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks.

[Yenrub]

Is #4 fact or opinion?

[dhockster]

Fact: Mario Williams was a #1 overall pick Fact: Mario Williams is a very good pass rusher Fact: Mario Williams played hurt in 2009 with Groin and Shoulder injuries, missed 3 games in 2010 due to a sports hernia, and missed 11 games in 2011 with a torn pectoral muscle. Because of those injuries, Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years. Fact: Mario Williams has never been "the guy" that other teams have to be aware of every time he is on the field. Fact: Mario Williams will earn top free agent dollars because teams are so desperate to rush the passer. Speculation: Mario Williams will not live up to expectations for whatever team signs him, either because of injury or just not having the make-up to be a true superstar. So fans who covet Mario Williams beware. You may be paying top dollar for a very good, not great, pass rusher who has a significant injury history.

" Because of those injuries, Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years." Umm...that sentence is not a fact. "Mario has 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks over the last 3 years" would be the fact. You're stating a causal relationship which is not true. If you dragged a guy off the street, and gave him those injuries, he would not have 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks.

I have corrected it for your satisfaction. While I didn't state it correctly, I hope you understand the point I was making which is that Mario had less sacks because his injuries either hampered him or caused him to miss games. If he was not injured, he would have had more sacks.

[dhockster]

Is #4 fact or opinion?

Probably more opinion than fact. Do you disagree with my opinion?

[ImTheScientist]

Fact: The OP is a bitter Texans Fan.

[Yenrub]

Is #4 fact or opinion?

Probably more opinion than fact. Do you disagree with my opinion?

I don’t watch enough of the Texans to know for sure but I would disagree with your opinion. Who on the Texans defense would you say is that guy if it isn’t Mario?

[SWC]

here is a fact most of your facts are opinions and i might be the dumbest poster here but even i can see that and when the old swcer has one up on you its time to quit it and go have have a beer so i hope that you have a beer and enjoy your weekend my friend because its ok to have one on the friday and relax a bit take that to the bank brother man

[dhockster]

Fact: The OP is a bitter Texans Fan.

Not bitter. Realistic. If the Texans had the cap space (which they don't) or if they could have paid Mario a salary more in line with what he has shown over the course of his six year career, I would have been fine with them resigning him. I am just cautioning people who think Mario could be the next Reggie White or Bruce Smith. At this point, I don't even know if he is the next Jason Babin.

[Jason Wood]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

[dhockster]

here is a fact most of your facts are opinions and i might be the dumbest poster here but even i can see that and when the old swcer has one up on you its time to quit it and go have have a beer so i hope that you have a beer and enjoy your weekend my friend because its ok to have one on the friday and relax a bit take that to the bank brother man

Punctuation is your friend. Take a breath, brother.

[GroveDiesel]

Williams is an injury risk, but if he is healthy, he WILL get to the QB. I think he absolutely has superstar talent. That pectoral injury does scare me though. It's an injury that tends to re-occur. It's be hard to swallow paying the guy a ton and then seeing him on the IR all the time. I think Nnamndi is a bit of a different comparison. Nnamndi did ok last year, but the Eagles knew his strengths and decided to keep using a system that didn't play to those strengths. They have their philosophies and they try to force them whether it fits the personnel they have or not. That would be like a team signing Mario and making him a 4-3 OLB or a DT. He's athletic enough that he could still probably do ok, but you'd get nothing compared to his true ability. I think the better big Eagles FA signing would be Javon Kearse. The Eagles paid him a bunch but injuries really limited his effectiveness.

[SWC]

roger that chief brohan i think that he is worth the price and will be an awesome addition basically anywhere but especially in a 4 3 where he can stand up and come at the qb from everywhere on the field i could totally see ds using camoflaghe sets to disguise where he is coming from and him blowing up the qb and rb or maybe wr if they were running a gaget play like a double handoff reverse or even a triple in the backfield and then doing some type of a celebration move like the discount double take

[Buckna]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I would argue yes. Here is a pretty convincing article.

Some highlights:
-Only 2 other players since they started tracking the stat have more sacks before age 26: Dwight Freeney & Derrick Thomas.
-Only 2 other players account for a larger percentage of their teams sacks from 2006-2010: Demarcus Ware & Robert Mathis
-Only 2 other players average more sacks per game over the last 5 years: Demarcus Ware & Jared Allen
-Elite pass rushers peak between 26~28 before they start to decline. Mario is 27 and in his peak years, not past his prime.
-Mario can play either a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB giving a defense a lot of flexibility.

[geoff8695]

I think it depends a bit on the circumstances. But let's say you put him on the Bears' d-line on the opposite end from Julius Peppers... In that situation I think he is worth a lot. Especially in a division that has so much offensive firepower in rivals GB and Det. Can't think of another FA addition that would make such an immediate impact on the NFC North landscape.

[ImTheScientist]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

Yes.

[Bigboy10182000]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I'll be the first to say I havent watching him a lot but what I've seen he looks amazing. He seemed to play the run well and get to the QB...also, being his size and being able to make the transition to OLB seems to be a credit to his athleticism. JMHO

[dhockster]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I would argue yes. Here is a pretty convincing article.

Some highlights:
-Only 2 other players since they started tracking the stat have more sacks before age 26: Dwight Freeney & Derrick Thomas.
-Only 2 other players account for a larger percentage of their teams sacks from 2006-2010: Demarcus Ware & Robert Mathis
-Only 2 other players average more sacks per game over the last 5 years: Demarcus Ware & Jared Allen
-Elite pass rushers peak between 26~28 before they start to decline. Mario is 27 and in his peak years, not past his prime.
-Mario can play either a 4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB giving a defense a lot of flexibility.

Here is where Mario ranked in Sacks in each year of his career:
2006: Not in the top 40
2007: 3rd
2008: 7th
2009: 16th
2010: 24th
2011: Not in the top 40

Mario could be a consistent top ten sack leader, and maybe even the dominant force you think he is, if he could stay healthy. In the last 3 years he has had 4 separate injuries which have either hampered his play or caused him to miss games. You point to the fact that Mario is entering his prime but what good is that if he is consistently getting injured?

[dhockster]

I think it depends a bit on the circumstances. But let's say you put him on the Bears' d-line on the opposite end from Julius Peppers... In that situation I think he is worth a lot. Especially in a division that has so much offensive firepower in rivals GB and Det. Can't think of another FA addition that would make such an immediate impact on the NFC North landscape.

If Mario is worth a lot only when you put him next to another dominant pass rusher, than I don't think he is the player you think he is. I don't think there is any chance the Bears could afford to pay that much money to their Defensive Line.

[dhockster]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

Yes.

Based on what?

[Tackling Dummies]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

Contract and expectations are a dangerous mix. He'll be worth his contract for the first 4 seasons and then a slow fade to liability.

[ImTheScientist]

RE: HOCKSTER Why are u so upset? He's young and entering his prime. Before the season ending injury last year he had only missed 3 games in 5 seasons. He has talent and Im sure you'll miss him.

[ImTheScientist]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

Yes.

Based on what?

Thats a really dumb question. Based on talent and play. All NFL experts agree. Im excited to see what he'll do in a Seahawks uniform next year, especially when Chris Clemons can get 11 sacks... http://www.nfl.com/p...2505312/profile Just looking at sack numbers is a ridiculous way to judge a player. System is huge.... and OP plays too much fantasy football.

Edited by ImTheScientist, 09 March 2012 - 09:57 AM.

[geoff8695]

I think it depends a bit on the circumstances. But let's say you put him on the Bears' d-line on the opposite end from Julius Peppers... In that situation I think he is worth a lot. Especially in a division that has so much offensive firepower in rivals GB and Det. Can't think of another FA addition that would make such an immediate impact on the NFC North landscape.

If Mario is worth a lot only when you put him next to another dominant pass rusher, than I don't think he is the player you think he is. I don't think there is any chance the Bears could afford to pay that much money to their Defensive Line.

You misunderstand me... I wasn't trying to "limit" Williams' value to depending upon surrounding talent. What I'm saying is that in a situation like Chicago his value to the Bears is even greater than it might be elsewhere. That's because the D-line would go from being good to being the BEST pass rushing unit in the NFL. Offenses would not be able to double team both Peppers AND Williams, DBs wouldn't have to hold coverage as long, and an already terrific LB unit would absolutely clean up the slop left over. Therefore if adding ONE player to your team can take you from being a good defense to being one of the best in the NFL and take your pass rush from being average to being elite, then YES Mario is worth a LOT to one team vs. another team. Especially when you consider that the Bears have to face off against premier passing offensive talents in their own division like Det and GB.

[Chase Stuart]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I would argue yes. Here is a pretty convincing article.

Some highlights:
-Only 2 other players since they started tracking the stat have more sacks before age 26: Dwight Freeney & Derrick Thomas.

That's a highlight, but a very misleading one at that.

-- Yes, only 2 had more, but Tim Harris was tied with him.

-- Before the age of 26 means "through age 25" but Williams is 27. Through age 26, Williams is tied for 9th, not 3rd.

-- The sack wasn't recorded as a statistic until 1983, and anyone who came in the league after Williams hasn't had a fair chance of breaking it. The fairer way of wording it would be "From 1982 to 2006, Williams was tied for 3rd with Tim Harris for most sacks through age 25, although his numbers dropped off after missing most of 2011."

-- Williams had a January birthday, which causes his first year to be counted as his "age 21 season." Had he been born a month earlier, his numbers would look less impressive, because you're giving him an extra full year to produce sacks. A fairer way of measuring it -- even leaving out 2011 -- would be to note that through age 25, Williams had 48 sacks and had played for 5 years. For players whose careers began from 1982 to 2007, Williams is tied for 21st most sacks.

[Stewy]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I'll be the first to say I havent watching him a lot but what I've seen he looks amazing. He seemed to play the run well and get to the QB...also, being his size and being able to make the transition to OLB seems to be a credit to his athleticism. JMHO

On top of that, he seems to perform better in the spotlight. His 3 (or was it 3.5) sack primetime game against Denver comes to mind. Of course, the rub with him is his health. He's been injured 4 out of his 6 seasons and, while he might "play through" injuries, he doesn't produce injured. He was healthy in '07 and '08 and put up 14 and 12 sacks respectively. But, in the other years he has had injuries from plantar faciitis, to groin, to shoulder, to a torn pec and didn't hit double digits once in those years (and averaged 6.75 sacks). It's an extremely risky proposition. Maybe I'm just a jaded Texans fan, but I'd lean toward him not living up to the contract he will sign. I just don't see those injuries magically ceasing.

Edited by Stewy, 09 March 2012 - 11:56 AM.

[dhockster]

RE: HOCKSTER Why are u so upset? He's young and entering his prime. Before the season ending injury last year he had only missed 3 games in 5 seasons. He has talent and Im sure you'll miss him.

If my tone is coming across as upset, I apologize. I am not upset. I have just watched Mario Williams play for 6 years for the Texans and based on what happened during those 6 years, I think people are overvaluing him. I think he has the physical ability to be dominant, but I don't think he has the drive of other dominant pass rushers like DeMarcus Ware or Jared Allen. Factor that with his injury history (groin and shoulder in 2009, sports hernia in 2010, pectoral muscle in 2011), and I can see the team that gets him having less production than they hoped for. As for missing him, yes the Texans are a better defense with him. But I am less concerned about him leaving after the Texans ranked 2nd in defense with Mario starting 5 games and his rookie replacement starting 11 games. While Mario had 5 sacks in 5 games, his rookie replacement filled in with 6 sacks in 11 games. In fact, Brooks Reed had 6 sacks in his first 6 games starting, which matched the pace of Mario. I think his sack production went down at the end of the season when the Texans lost Schaub and they went more conservative on defense to try to stay in games rather than risk falling too far behind. We will see.

[dhockster]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

Yes.

Based on what?

Thats a really dumb question.

Based on talent and play. All NFL experts agree.

Im excited to see what he'll do in a Seahawks uniform next year, especially when Chris Clemons can get 11 sacks...
http://www.nfl.com/p...2505312/profile

Just looking at sack numbers is a ridiculous way to judge a player. System is huge.... and OP plays too much fantasy football.

All NFL experts agree that based on his talent and his play, Mario Williams will be worth the price he fetches?? I must
have missed that piece by Mike Florio.

Yes, sacks is not the only thing to judge a pass rusher by. How about tackles? Mario averages 3 tackles a game over his career. Nothing
outstanding there. How about team defense? While Mario has been on the team the team has ranked 24th, 24th, 22nd, 13th, 30th, and 2nd
in defensive yardage. The year they finished 2nd, Mario only played 5 games. How about all the players that have double digit sacks on his
team because he is getting double and triple teamed? One player had double digit sacks which was Connor Barwin who had 11.5 last year (when Mario played only 5 games). Before last year,the highest sack total of anyone other than Mario was Amobe Okoye who had 5.5 sacks in 2007. That either means the rest of team was incredibly bad, the system was incredibly bad, Mario wasn't occupying as many people as we thought he was, or some combination of all three. I think it is a combination of all three.

As for FF, I haven't even played in about 5 years. My view on Mario is based on what I have seen on the field and the numbers he produces. I don't have a direct line to what all NFL experts think, as you seem to.

[dhockster]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I'll be the first to say I havent watching him a lot but what I've seen he looks amazing. He seemed to play the run well and get to the QB...also, being his size and being able to make the transition to OLB seems to be a credit to his athleticism. JMHO

On top of that, he seems to perform better in the spotlight. His 3 (or was it 3.5) sack primetime game against Denver comes to mind. Of course, the rub with him is his health. He's been injured 4 out of his 6 seasons and, while he might "play through" injuries, he doesn't produce injured. He was healthy in '07 and '08 and put up 14 and 12 sacks respectively. But, in the other years he has had injuries from plantar faciitis, to groin, to shoulder, to a torn pec and didn't hit double digits once in those years (and averaged 6.75 sacks). It's an extremely risky proposition. Maybe I'm just a jaded Texans fan, but I'd lean toward him not living up to the contract he will sign. I just don't see those injuries magically ceasing.

I agree with everything you said.

[Buckna]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I would argue yes. Here is a pretty convincing article.

Some highlights:
-Only 2 other players since they started tracking the stat have more sacks before age 26: Dwight Freeney & Derrick Thomas.

That's a highlight, but a very misleading one at that.

-- Yes, only 2 had more, but Tim Harris was tied with him.

-- Before the age of 26 means "through age 25" but Williams is 27. Through age 26, Williams is tied for 9th, not 3rd.

-- The sack wasn't recorded as a statistic until 1983, and anyone who came in the league after Williams hasn't had a fair chance of breaking it. The fairer way of wording it would be "From 1982 to 2006, Williams was tied for 3rd with Tim Harris for most sacks through age 25, although his numbers dropped off after missing most of 2011."

-- Williams had a January birthday, which causes his first year to be counted as his "age 21 season." Had he been born a month earlier, his numbers would look less impressive, because you're giving him an extra full year to produce sacks. A fairer way of measuring it -- even leaving out 2011 -- would be to note that through age 25, Williams had 48 sacks and had played for 5 years. For players whose careers began from 1982 to 2007, Williams is tied for 21st most sacks.

Well the writer specifies at the beginning of the article that he is writing from the voice as if he was Mario's agent so obviously he'll put a better spin on things and gloss over the warts. I'd say the percentage of team sacks and sacks per game average are elite numbers no matter how you spin them.

Sacks are also the sexy stat, there are a lot of qualitative arguments you can make in addition for Mario such as how he's an excellent run defender and not just a 1 dimensional pass-rush guy only. Or mentioning how bad the Houston defenses have been during until Wade Phillips got to town (ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league and pretty close to last multiple years.) That could be argued that he had no one to help him out and was the only bright spot on some awful squads/schemes.

[Greg Russell]

OP left out that 10 games of Mario's rookie season he played through a plantar fasciitis injury. That's a really tough injury for a defensive end, especially when it's on his plant foot as it was with Mario. Mario is a one of the better pass rushers in the league, and he also is very tough against the run as a 4-3 end. I'd have to go re-watch some games this year to say how he did against the run from the 3-4 OLB, I just don't recall many plays there either way. He isn't a detriment to the locker room, though he's not a Ray Lewis rah-rah type guy either. He has two risks for a team who signs him. First is that he's a mellow guy who needs motivation to get amped up to his full potential. He is NOT a Randy Moss who takes plays off. Instead he's a guy that you need to make a consistent effort to keep fired up to get the highest level of play out of him rather than just good play. The Texans have shown it can be handled. There are numerous comments from players and coaches and from Mario himself that I have seen that indicate they make a steady effort of keeping Mario's motor revved up. He commented on it openly in the aforementioned 3 sack Thursday night game in Denver when NFLN had him out at their desk post-game for an interview. It's a risk if you ignore it, but easy to mitigate so not a big deal. The other thing then obviously is the injury risk. He's had a lot of them. They have all been different things as opposed to a degenerative condition. He's shown he'll play through pain... and I'd argue many DEs would not have played through what Mario did his rookie year, so I personally think it's a strength in that regard. Obviously if he misses a lot of games for a team that signs him, it will be a bad signing. But if a team got from him exactly what the Texans have in terms of injuries and production both, it will be a good enough signing. Considering that he's just entering the prime years for a pass rusher, it's not unreasonable to think he'll outperform what he did in Houston.

[Greg Russell]

Let's just stick to the debate, is Mario Williams worth the likely price he'll fetch?

I would argue yes. Here is a pretty convincing article.

Some highlights:
-Only 2 other players since they started tracking the stat have more sacks before age 26: Dwight Freeney & Derrick Thomas.

That's a highlight, but a very misleading one at that.

-- Yes, only 2 had more, but Tim Harris was tied with him.

-- Before the age of 26 means "through age 25" but Williams is 27. Through age 26, Williams is tied for 9th, not 3rd.

-- The sack wasn't recorded as a statistic until 1983, and anyone who came in the league after Williams hasn't had a fair chance of breaking it. The fairer way of wording it would be "From 1982 to 2006, Williams was tied for 3rd with Tim Harris for most sacks through age 25, although his numbers dropped off after missing most of 2011."

-- Williams had a January birthday, which causes his first year to be counted as his "age 21 season." Had he been born a month earlier, his numbers would look less impressive, because you're giving him an extra full year to produce sacks. A fairer way of measuring it -- even leaving out 2011 -- would be to note that through age 25, Williams had 48 sacks and had played for 5 years. For players whose careers began from 1982 to 2007, Williams is tied for 21st most sacks.

Well the writer specifies at the beginning of the article that he is writing from the voice as if he was Mario's agent so obviously he'll put a better spin on things and gloss over the warts. I'd say the percentage of team sacks and sacks per game average are elite numbers no matter how you spin them.

Sacks are also the sexy stat, there are a lot of qualitative arguments you can make in addition for Mario such as how he's an excellent run defender and not just a 1 dimensional pass-rush guy only. Or mentioning how bad the Houston defenses have been during until Wade Phillips got to town (ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league and pretty close to last multiple years.) That could be argued that he had no one to help him out and was the only bright spot on some awful squads/schemes.

If you search that site you can find an article where he does the opposite and tries to put together the most compelling arguments why Mario shouldn't be signed. He did both for a number of the big free agents.

[ImTheScientist]

RE: HOCKSTER Why are u so upset? He's young and entering his prime. Before the season ending injury last year he had only missed 3 games in 5 seasons. He has talent and Im sure you'll miss him.

If my tone is coming across as upset, I apologize. I am not upset. I have just watched Mario Williams play for 6 years for the Texans and based on what happened during those 6 years, I think people are overvaluing him. I think he has the physical ability to be dominant, but I don't think he has the drive of other dominant pass rushers like DeMarcus Ware or Jared Allen. Factor that with his injury history (groin and shoulder in 2009, sports hernia in 2010, pectoral muscle in 2011), and I can see the team that gets him having less production than they hoped for. As for missing him, yes the Texans are a better defense with him. But I am less concerned about him leaving after the Texans ranked 2nd in defense with Mario starting 5 games and his rookie replacement starting 11 games. While Mario had 5 sacks in 5 games, his rookie replacement filled in with 6 sacks in 11 games. In fact, Brooks Reed had 6 sacks in his first 6 games starting, which matched the pace of Mario. I think his sack production went down at the end of the season when the Texans lost Schaub and they went more conservative on defense to try to stay in games rather than risk falling too far behind. We will see.

Um....it took 1 post for me to figure out you are trying to convince yourself of something and were upset with Mario. I just find bitter sports guy to be funny & ridiculous.

[dhockster]

RE: HOCKSTER Why are u so upset? He's young and entering his prime. Before the season ending injury last year he had only missed 3 games in 5 seasons. He has talent and Im sure you'll miss him.

If my tone is coming across as upset, I apologize. I am not upset. I have just watched Mario Williams play for 6 years for the Texans and based on what happened during those 6 years, I think people are overvaluing him. I think he has the physical ability to be dominant, but I don't think he has the drive of other dominant pass rushers like DeMarcus Ware or Jared Allen. Factor that with his injury history (groin and shoulder in 2009, sports hernia in 2010, pectoral muscle in 2011), and I can see the team that gets him having less production than they hoped for. As for missing him, yes the Texans are a better defense with him. But I am less concerned about him leaving after the Texans ranked 2nd in defense with Mario starting 5 games and his rookie replacement starting 11 games. While Mario had 5 sacks in 5 games, his rookie replacement filled in with 6 sacks in 11 games. In fact, Brooks Reed had 6 sacks in his first 6 games starting, which matched the pace of Mario. I think his sack production went down at the end of the season when the Texans lost Schaub and they went more conservative on defense to try to stay in games rather than risk falling too far behind. We will see.

Um....it took 1 post for me to figure out you are trying to convince yourself of something and were upset with Mario. I just find bitter sports guy to be funny & ridiculous.

Again, I am not bitter. I just find condescending, know-it-all sports guy to be funny & ridiculous.

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

I think the biggest plus with Williams is he just turned 27. Let's say you give him a five year deal. He's only 31 going into year 5 and wouldn't turn 32 until the season is over. I don't think there is a great risk of him falling off or slowing down because of age. Now, for his career, his numbers put him at around a 50 tackle, 10 sack a year guy. I think as the #1 overall pick, people expected DeMarcus Ware type numbers, but 50/10 for a DE isn't bad. With his size, age and production, I think he is a very safe bet. If he can stay healthy (82 of 96 possible career starts, missed 11 games with torn pec last year) I think he could easily have a Justin Smith type impact wherever he goes. Bottom line, you will have to pay hime top 5 DE money, and while he may not be a sackmaster, he should be the type of DE a franchise builds around.

[dhockster]

OP left out that 10 games of Mario's rookie season he played through a plantar fasciitis injury. That's a really tough injury for a defensive end, especially when it's on his plant foot as it was with Mario. Mario is a one of the better pass rushers in the league, and he also is very tough against the run as a 4-3 end. I'd have to go re-watch some games this year to say how he did against the run from the 3-4 OLB, I just don't recall many plays there either way. He isn't a detriment to the locker room, though he's not a Ray Lewis rah-rah type guy either. He has two risks for a team who signs him. First is that he's a mellow guy who needs motivation to get amped up to his full potential. He is NOT a Randy Moss who takes plays off. Instead he's a guy that you need to make a consistent effort to keep fired up to get the highest level of play out of him rather than just good play. The Texans have shown it can be handled. There are numerous comments from players and coaches and from Mario himself that I have seen that indicate they make a steady effort of keeping Mario's motor revved up. He commented on it openly in the aforementioned 3 sack Thursday night game in Denver when NFLN had him out at their desk post-game for an interview. It's a risk if you ignore it, but easy to mitigate so not a big deal. The other thing then obviously is the injury risk. He's had a lot of them. They have all been different things as opposed to a degenerative condition. He's shown he'll play through pain... and I'd argue many DEs would not have played through what Mario did his rookie year, so I personally think it's a strength in that regard. Obviously if he misses a lot of games for a team that signs him, it will be a bad signing. But if a team got from him exactly what the Texans have in terms of injuries and production both, it will be a good enough signing. Considering that he's just entering the prime years for a pass rusher, it's not unreasonable to think he'll outperform what he did in Houston.

Good points, as usual, GR. Thanks for correcting me on Mario's injury in his rookie year. Here's what it boils down to for me. When Mario has been healthy, he had 14 and 12 sacks, respectively. That was in his 2nd and 3rd years so conceivably if healthy in his prime, Mario would put up better numbers than that. However, in 4 of 6 years he has played hurt or missed games. During those seasons he had 4.5, 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks. Those are not numbers you want from someone you are paying top dollar to. If he goes to a team with a good supporting defensive cast, I do think he could put up great numbers, if healthy. I think a lot of people are assuming he is going to be healthier than he has been for his first six years. I am just not sure why.

[Greg Russell]

OP left out that 10 games of Mario's rookie season he played through a plantar fasciitis injury. That's a really tough injury for a defensive end, especially when it's on his plant foot as it was with Mario. Mario is a one of the better pass rushers in the league, and he also is very tough against the run as a 4-3 end. I'd have to go re-watch some games this year to say how he did against the run from the 3-4 OLB, I just don't recall many plays there either way. He isn't a detriment to the locker room, though he's not a Ray Lewis rah-rah type guy either. He has two risks for a team who signs him. First is that he's a mellow guy who needs motivation to get amped up to his full potential. He is NOT a Randy Moss who takes plays off. Instead he's a guy that you need to make a consistent effort to keep fired up to get the highest level of play out of him rather than just good play. The Texans have shown it can be handled. There are numerous comments from players and coaches and from Mario himself that I have seen that indicate they make a steady effort of keeping Mario's motor revved up. He commented on it openly in the aforementioned 3 sack Thursday night game in Denver when NFLN had him out at their desk post-game for an interview. It's a risk if you ignore it, but easy to mitigate so not a big deal. The other thing then obviously is the injury risk. He's had a lot of them. They have all been different things as opposed to a degenerative condition. He's shown he'll play through pain... and I'd argue many DEs would not have played through what Mario did his rookie year, so I personally think it's a strength in that regard. Obviously if he misses a lot of games for a team that signs him, it will be a bad signing. But if a team got from him exactly what the Texans have in terms of injuries and production both, it will be a good enough signing. Considering that he's just entering the prime years for a pass rusher, it's not unreasonable to think he'll outperform what he did in Houston.

Good points, as usual, GR. Thanks for correcting me on Mario's injury in his rookie year. Here's what it boils down to for me. When Mario has been healthy, he had 14 and 12 sacks, respectively. That was in his 2nd and 3rd years so conceivably if healthy in his prime, Mario would put up better numbers than that. However, in 4 of 6 years he has played hurt or missed games. During those seasons he had 4.5, 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks. Those are not numbers you want from someone you are paying top dollar to. If he goes to a team with a good supporting defensive cast, I do think he could put up great numbers, if healthy. I think a lot of people are assuming he is going to be healthier than he has been for his first six years. I am just not sure why.

His injury history is a reason for concern, I mean you get 0 production if a player doesn't play. But let me turn your last statement around and ask it back at you. Why assume that Mario will be injured as much as he was in his first 6 years?

[Greg Russell]

By the way, this is more a Texans specific thing, but one we don't bring up enough. Most of the time Texans fans are evaluating Mario's worth to the franchise, we seem to look at it from the 2012 standpoint where Wade Phillips is here as DC. What if he gets a head coaching gig in 2013 and takes with him the assistants who know his system? How much more might having a Mario matter when Wade's experience timing blitzes and countering offenses isn't there elevating the play of everyone on the team as much? Let alone if the Texans get another good DC but one who wants to go back to a 4-3. I still doubt the Texans are able to re-sign him, but I like the flexibility if they did. And I'm willing to roll the dice when it comes to the injury history.

[dhockster]

OP left out that 10 games of Mario's rookie season he played through a plantar fasciitis injury. That's a really tough injury for a defensive end, especially when it's on his plant foot as it was with Mario. Mario is a one of the better pass rushers in the league, and he also is very tough against the run as a 4-3 end. I'd have to go re-watch some games this year to say how he did against the run from the 3-4 OLB, I just don't recall many plays there either way. He isn't a detriment to the locker room, though he's not a Ray Lewis rah-rah type guy either. He has two risks for a team who signs him. First is that he's a mellow guy who needs motivation to get amped up to his full potential. He is NOT a Randy Moss who takes plays off. Instead he's a guy that you need to make a consistent effort to keep fired up to get the highest level of play out of him rather than just good play. The Texans have shown it can be handled. There are numerous comments from players and coaches and from Mario himself that I have seen that indicate they make a steady effort of keeping Mario's motor revved up. He commented on it openly in the aforementioned 3 sack Thursday night game in Denver when NFLN had him out at their desk post-game for an interview. It's a risk if you ignore it, but easy to mitigate so not a big deal. The other thing then obviously is the injury risk. He's had a lot of them. They have all been different things as opposed to a degenerative condition. He's shown he'll play through pain... and I'd argue many DEs would not have played through what Mario did his rookie year, so I personally think it's a strength in that regard. Obviously if he misses a lot of games for a team that signs him, it will be a bad signing. But if a team got from him exactly what the Texans have in terms of injuries and production both, it will be a good enough signing. Considering that he's just entering the prime years for a pass rusher, it's not unreasonable to think he'll outperform what he did in Houston.

Good points, as usual, GR. Thanks for correcting me on Mario's injury in his rookie year. Here's what it boils down to for me. When Mario has been healthy, he had 14 and 12 sacks, respectively. That was in his 2nd and 3rd years so conceivably if healthy in his prime, Mario would put up better numbers than that. However, in 4 of 6 years he has played hurt or missed games. During those seasons he had 4.5, 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks. Those are not numbers you want from someone you are paying top dollar to. If he goes to a team with a good supporting defensive cast, I do think he could put up great numbers, if healthy. I think a lot of people are assuming he is going to be healthier than he has been for his first six years. I am just not sure why.

His injury history is a reason for concern, I mean you get 0 production if a player doesn't play. But let me turn your last statement around and ask it back at you. Why assume that Mario will be injured as much as he was in his first 6 years?

Some players in sports are chronically injured. The fact that it has been four different areas of the body in six years points to the fact that Mario may be one of those chronically injured guys. Since I have no basis to say that any of Mario's injuries in the first 6 years were freak accidents that aren't likely to happen again, I go by the logic that he will probably suffer injuries in the future at the same rate he has done in the past.

Edited by dhockster, 09 March 2012 - 03:00 PM.

[cstu]

OP left out that 10 games of Mario's rookie season he played through a plantar fasciitis injury. That's a really tough injury for a defensive end, especially when it's on his plant foot as it was with Mario. Mario is a one of the better pass rushers in the league, and he also is very tough against the run as a 4-3 end. I'd have to go re-watch some games this year to say how he did against the run from the 3-4 OLB, I just don't recall many plays there either way. He isn't a detriment to the locker room, though he's not a Ray Lewis rah-rah type guy either. He has two risks for a team who signs him. First is that he's a mellow guy who needs motivation to get amped up to his full potential. He is NOT a Randy Moss who takes plays off. Instead he's a guy that you need to make a consistent effort to keep fired up to get the highest level of play out of him rather than just good play. The Texans have shown it can be handled. There are numerous comments from players and coaches and from Mario himself that I have seen that indicate they make a steady effort of keeping Mario's motor revved up. He commented on it openly in the aforementioned 3 sack Thursday night game in Denver when NFLN had him out at their desk post-game for an interview. It's a risk if you ignore it, but easy to mitigate so not a big deal. The other thing then obviously is the injury risk. He's had a lot of them. They have all been different things as opposed to a degenerative condition. He's shown he'll play through pain... and I'd argue many DEs would not have played through what Mario did his rookie year, so I personally think it's a strength in that regard. Obviously if he misses a lot of games for a team that signs him, it will be a bad signing. But if a team got from him exactly what the Texans have in terms of injuries and production both, it will be a good enough signing. Considering that he's just entering the prime years for a pass rusher, it's not unreasonable to think he'll outperform what he did in Houston.

Good points, as usual, GR. Thanks for correcting me on Mario's injury in his rookie year. Here's what it boils down to for me. When Mario has been healthy, he had 14 and 12 sacks, respectively. That was in his 2nd and 3rd years so conceivably if healthy in his prime, Mario would put up better numbers than that. However, in 4 of 6 years he has played hurt or missed games. During those seasons he had 4.5, 9, 8.5, and 5 sacks. Those are not numbers you want from someone you are paying top dollar to. If he goes to a team with a good supporting defensive cast, I do think he could put up great numbers, if healthy. I think a lot of people are assuming he is going to be healthier than he has been for his first six years. I am just not sure why.

His injury history is a reason for concern, I mean you get 0 production if a player doesn't play. But let me turn your last statement around and ask it back at you. Why assume that Mario will be injured as much as he was in his first 6 years?

Some players in sports are chronically injured. The fact that it has been four different areas of the body in six years points to the fact that Mario may be one of those chronically injured guys. Since I have no basis to say that any of Mario's injuries in the first 6 years were freak accidents that aren't likely to happen again, I go by the logic that he will probably suffer injuries in the future at the same rate he has done in the past.

I'm not buying it. Football is a tough game and guys get injured. However, I'm not sure he's worth the Julius Peppers money he'll get.

[massraider]

As a guy you can plug in as a 4-3 RE, I would take the chance. Makes sense for the Texans to not re-sign him. They run the 3-4. No need to pay an OLB that kind of cash. Compared to true RE, 3-4 OLB are dime a dozen. Steelers prove this all the time.

[flapgreen]

Personally, I think he's one of the top defensive ends in the league. If he goes to a team that has a lot of holes, I don't think he makes that big of an impact in the win/loss column. Now if he goes to a team that's already pretty good and has a decent anount of cap space, he will make a huge impact. That's why I think the Texans will really suffer without him over the long haul.

Edited by flapgreen, 09 March 2012 - 10:11 PM.

[Dr. Awesome]

Cowboys, Seahawks, and Falcons look to be the biggest teams after him at the moment.

[Bri]

Texans should have moved him last year and will wind up with a 3rd compensatory as the only return here. I have often thought the Texans were a few players away from a top D and they have never been able to progress to that point. They have often had terrible schemes with players out of place to make a play and at times some of the worst secondary play in the league. I loved the expansion and followed them pretty closely for quite a while, they are frustrating bunch on defense. I think Mario in a good scheme could be phenomenal. More often than not he'd get a sack and it'd be like "don't forget about me" instead of him being a key part of the D. This was soo not the Giants with Strahan or the Pack with Reggie White. They have two excellent LBers that could have sooo covered his back if they just let him pin his ears back. On a team like the Eagles, Mario would have had us discussing if 20 sacks were possible. The Steelers would idolize this guy and the Giants would compare him to Osi, Tuck, and Strahan. He's an excellent player that did the best he could in a poor scheme. I hope he's begging his agent to call every team with a quality defense and defensive system. With the cap, chances are he's going to wind up on some terrible D as only those teams seem to have money and a willingness to overspend. As a fan, I would love for him to go to any of the teams I mentioned or Baltimore or NYJ or...so desperately hoping he lands with a good defense.

[Ron_Mexico]

Mario Williams - LB - Texans NFL.com's Jason La Canfora reports free agent DE/OLB Mario Williams will likely leave Buffalo without signing, and is expected to make at least one more visit

[flapgreen]

Veeeery interesting.

[Yenrub]

Don't the Panthers need some help on defense and don't they have a ton of cap room?

[flapgreen]

No one wants to play in that freezing cold wasteland. Good move, Mario.

[Devine Intervention]

I still believe he has a good chance at signing with Buffalo.