Jump to content


Photo

unforced fumbles


  • Please log in to reply
15 replies to this topic

#1 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 01 April 2012 - 06:49 AM

What percentage of fumbles are unforced? I can't seem to find the answer anywhere. I'm trying to separate out that number as part of a discussion in our league about awarding IDP points for forced fumbles and fumble recoveries. I'd appreciate any help.



#2 Jene Bramel

Jene Bramel

    Footballguy

  • Moderator
  • Pip
  • 17,076 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ova Down Nere

Posted 02 April 2012 - 08:40 AM

It's a very small percentage. The majority of aborted plays from center are uncredited forced fumbles and the rare occasion when a ballcarrier loses the ball without being tackled. Every time a tackle is awarded on a fumble play, a forced fumble is awarded at the same time. You could get a rough estimate from tallying up the league's fumbles and comparing them to forced fumbles. That'll include special teams plays and change of possession plays, too, but should give you a number to work with.

#3 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 02 April 2012 - 09:54 AM

It's a very small percentage. The majority of aborted plays from center are uncredited forced fumbles and the rare occasion when a ballcarrier loses the ball without being tackled. Every time a tackle is awarded on a fumble play, a forced fumble is awarded at the same time. You could get a rough estimate from tallying up the league's fumbles and comparing them to forced fumbles. That'll include special teams plays and change of possession plays, too, but should give you a number to work with.

Thanks, Jene I had already divided the league's (defense) forced fumbles by the league's (offense) fumbles. For 2011 those numbers are 447/651 (so 68.7% of fumbles were forced and 31.3% were unforced). But I wasn't sure that those numbers included special teams, since they are listed as league totals for offense and defense. It also surprised me that almost 1/3 of all fumbles would be unforced. If I understood you correctly, aborted plays from center and the rare occasion when a ballcarrier loses the ball without being tackled would be counted as forced fumbles in NFL stats but not credited to any player. But then how would we ever get to 31.3% of fumbles being unforced? Bob

#4 Jene Bramel

Jene Bramel

    Footballguy

  • Moderator
  • Pip
  • 17,076 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ova Down Nere

Posted 02 April 2012 - 12:19 PM


It's a very small percentage. The majority of aborted plays from center are uncredited forced fumbles and the rare occasion when a ballcarrier loses the ball without being tackled. Every time a tackle is awarded on a fumble play, a forced fumble is awarded at the same time.

You could get a rough estimate from tallying up the league's fumbles and comparing them to forced fumbles. That'll include special teams plays and change of possession plays, too, but should give you a number to work with.

Thanks, Jene

I had already divided the league's (defense) forced fumbles by the league's (offense) fumbles. For 2011 those numbers are 447/651 (so 68.7% of fumbles were forced and 31.3% were unforced). But I wasn't sure that those numbers included special teams, since they are listed as league totals for offense and defense. It also surprised me that almost 1/3 of all fumbles would be unforced.

If I understood you correctly, aborted plays from center and the rare occasion when a ballcarrier loses the ball without being tackled would be counted as forced fumbles in NFL stats but not credited to any player. But then how would we ever get to 31.3% of fumbles being unforced?

Bob

Huh. I would not have expected those numbers. Our IDP Matchup sheet has 394 total defensive forced fumbles last year (I think 53 special teams and change of possession forced fumbles is reasonable). I see the same 651 total fumbles on NFL.com, but ESPN has 495 team defense forced fumbles last year. I take that 495 number to mean all fumbles against a defensive or special teams unit and 495 makes more sense to me given what I recall from reading play-by-play over the years, but I'll keep trying to figure out what that 651 total might refer to.

#5 Larry Thomas

Larry Thomas

    Footballguy

  • Staff
  • Pip
  • 371 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ohio

Posted 02 April 2012 - 04:32 PM

GSIS (defense only) had 400 FF last year. Average over last 10 years 456.7 268 defensive FR 304 fumbles lost, imagine this includes ST.
Matthew 7:12 Luke 6:31

#6 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 02 April 2012 - 05:54 PM

Thanks, Larry I really appreciate the multi-year info. Any idea what the numbers were for unforced fumbles or total fumbles over the last 10 years? My goal here is to get a handle on the proportion of unforced fumbles to forced fumbles (or, same difference, unforced fumbles to total fumbles). What's GSIS? Sounds like something I need to know. Bob

#7 Larry Thomas

Larry Thomas

    Footballguy

  • Staff
  • Pip
  • 371 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ohio

Posted 02 April 2012 - 07:27 PM

Thanks, Larry I really appreciate the multi-year info. Any idea what the numbers were for unforced fumbles or total fumbles over the last 10 years? My goal here is to get a handle on the proportion of unforced fumbles to forced fumbles (or, same difference, unforced fumbles to total fumbles). What's GSIS? Sounds like something I need to know. Bob

YW 10 year FR average 314.2
Matthew 7:12 Luke 6:31

#8 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 03 April 2012 - 03:37 AM

Thanks again Larry I like knowing the 10 year fumble recovery number, but I don't think that gets me closer to my goal of finding out how many unforced fumbles there were (since both forced and unforced fumbles are recovered) Also, what's GSIS? Bob

#9 Jene Bramel

Jene Bramel

    Footballguy

  • Moderator
  • Pip
  • 17,076 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ova Down Nere

Posted 03 April 2012 - 04:19 AM

GSIS is the NFL's game statistics information service. It's contains most of the stats used to populate the NFL.com gamebooks and stats pages. It's password protected and, to my knowledge, generally only made available to media members.

#10 Goyal the Goodfella

Goyal the Goodfella

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 68 posts
  • Joined 13-November 10

Posted 04 April 2012 - 04:42 AM

The number musst include fumbles that are recovered by the offensive team (not lost).

#11 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 04 April 2012 - 05:01 AM

The number musst include fumbles that are recovered by the offensive team (not lost).



#12 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 04 April 2012 - 05:05 AM

I agree, Goyal. Ideally we would compare all fumbles forced to all fumbles, including the odd defensive fumble (during a turnover return) and special teams.

#13 Larry Thomas

Larry Thomas

    Footballguy

  • Staff
  • Pip
  • 371 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ohio

Posted 04 April 2012 - 06:34 AM

The number musst include fumbles that are recovered by the offensive team (not lost).

The 304 is from takeawy/giveaway data which is broke down by INTs and fumbles. Its definitley fumbles lost, I would say it includes special teams. The other numbers are defensive only.
Matthew 7:12 Luke 6:31

#14 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 04 April 2012 - 08:05 AM

Thanks Larry, for the info on what's included in FRs. That's good to know. Maybe I'm missing something here but I don't think takeaway/giveaway stats help me separate forced fumbles from unforced fumbles. You can lose or retain possession on both FFs and unforced fumbles. What I'm really trying to find out is what proportion of fumbles are unforced. I believe that would include botched center-QB exchanges, botched handoffs, muffed kicks (both punt and KO) and a ball carrier just dropping the ball (maybe while changing hands, who knows?). The easiest way I can think of to get that number is to subtract forced fumbles from total fumbles (special teams included in both stats). What's left over would be unforced fumbles, right?

#15 Larry Thomas

Larry Thomas

    Footballguy

  • Staff
  • Pip
  • 371 posts
  • Joined 11-April 03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Ohio

Posted 04 April 2012 - 11:37 AM

Thanks Larry, for the info on what's included in FRs. That's good to know. Maybe I'm missing something here but I don't think takeaway/giveaway stats help me separate forced fumbles from unforced fumbles. You can lose or retain possession on both FFs and unforced fumbles. What I'm really trying to find out is what proportion of fumbles are unforced. I believe that would include botched center-QB exchanges, botched handoffs, muffed kicks (both punt and KO) and a ball carrier just dropping the ball (maybe while changing hands, who knows?). The easiest way I can think of to get that number is to subtract forced fumbles from total fumbles (special teams included in both stats). What's left over would be unforced fumbles, right?

Yeah I got a little off track. :) You already have it... 651 fumbles 447 FF leaving 204 unforced fumbles, roughly 32%. I would not have guessed it to be that high.
Matthew 7:12 Luke 6:31

#16 traveller01

traveller01

    Footballguy

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 38 posts
  • Joined 11-September 10

Posted 04 April 2012 - 04:12 PM

The part about 31.3% seeming high is what gets me. I thought so, Jene Bramel thought so, you think so. But I have nothing to compare it to. Figures vary from source to source and I don't have both figures (FF and total fumbles) from anyone but NFL.com Bob




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users