32 replies to this topic

[frogjumper]

I was offered Ryan Mathews for 1.04 and 1.06..... wondering what you guys thought?

[nickdib]

I would rather have Mathews. He just looks like an upcoming stud

[golfguy]

I would rather have Mathews. He just looks like an upcoming stud

agree here. basically, trent is gone rg3, blackmon is gone. so you are looking at luck and the 2nd/3rd rb off the board or floyd

[Nero]

I think Mathews is a solid RB1 with a chance to be elite in the short term. If I had a playoff caliber team, I'd take Mathews. If I had a rebuild, I'd keep the picks and take my chances in the draft.

[BigSteelThrill]

That's a pretty fair trade. Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be pretty happy with it. I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

[wjtait]

Yeah it just depends on if you are in "win now" mode or want the draft picks to rebuild. As a Mathews owner, I would keep him bc I think he has everything going for him to have a great year if he can stay healthy.

[lbouchard]

mathews=1.01. would you trade TRich for that?

[The Comedian]

I'd want more, but it's a respectable offer.

[OrangeCurtain]

I was reading this thread and thinking "Wow, I'm not nearly as high on Williams as the folks in this thread". Then I went two threads down and there's a post full of people saying Williams is worth a late 1st/early 2nd, which is the neighborhood I'd put him in. Funny how the opinions can vary like that...

[finito]

I was reading this thread and thinking "Wow, I'm not nearly as high on Williams as the folks in this thread". Then I went two threads down and there's a post full of people saying Williams is worth a late 1st/early 2nd, which is the neighborhood I'd put him in. Funny how the opinions can vary like that...

I think you'e thinking of Ryan Williams instead of Ryan Matthews.

[football fan]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

[voiceofunreason]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

[djmich]

mathews=1.01. would you trade TRich for that?

i wouldnt trade richardson for matthews

[football fan]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

???????????? Could I please see your magic future telling crystal ball? If I could predict the future like that I would be a billionaire from the stock market.

[Dez]

I'd want more, but it's a respectable offer.

You would want more than getting Mathews for your 1.04+1.06 ? I think getting Mathews for those picks is as about as cheap as you would land him for right now considering where he is being drafted. Mathews is being drafted in the late 1st/early 2nd of start up drafts and rookie picks 1.04 and 1.06 are being taken in the 4th-6th rounds

[Tony Soprano]

It depends on my team needs... if I am in full-on rebuilding mode, I would want the picks. But without consideration to any team needs, I would easily take the Mathews side.

[finito]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

???????????? Could I please see your magic future telling crystal ball? If I could predict the future like that I would be a billionaire from the stock market.

Not sure I understand your point. Take a look at the stats -- many 1st round picks bust. Montaro Hardesty, Mikel LeShoure were both going around 1.05 in drafts... do you think either will become a "stud?" It's not predicting the future as much as accepting that any rookie pick, even a first rounder, carries a certain amount of risk. Odds are some 1st rounders will bust, although I do like this draft class more than most.

[ghostguy123]

if I was offered picks 2 and 3 I would have to think about it. 4,6, no way

[One More Rep]

Keep Mathews

[voiceofunreason]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

???????????? Could I please see your magic future telling crystal ball? If I could predict the future like that I would be a billionaire from the stock market.

Common sense from past drafts. A lot of players are busts and very, very few are studs. So it's playing the odds and being realistic. Relax bud.

[ghostguy123]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

???????????? Could I please see your magic future telling crystal ball? If I could predict the future like that I would be a billionaire from the stock market.

Common sense from past drafts. A lot of players are busts and very, very few are studs. So it's playing the odds and being realistic. Relax bud.

I dont know what is crazier, him thinking 4/6 is a good return for Matthews, or that he thinks its possible to land Blackmon and Floyd at 4/6, haha

[todisco1]

I would think about that. The 1.04 could be Doug Martin, who I really dig, and the 1.06 could be one of Luck/RGIII. If I needed a QB badly I may do it.

[football fan]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

???????????? Could I please see your magic future telling crystal ball? If I could predict the future like that I would be a billionaire from the stock market.

Common sense from past drafts. A lot of players are busts and very, very few are studs. So it's playing the odds and being realistic. Relax bud.

I dont know what is crazier, him thinking 4/6 is a good return for Matthews, or that he thinks its possible to land Blackmon and Floyd at 4/6, haha

I post for two reasons, 1) hopefully to help the guy who made the OP, and 2) to have my posts to be critiqued (good or bad). I have a list of posters that I respect, and I highly value their critique of my opinions because they have provided insights/opinions that have helped me become better at playing fantasy football.

I am more concerned about the logic behind a critique/insight/option, than the response itself.

Just for the record, I do know that any rookie can bust, but the other poster response was projecting which rookie may bust, anyone can speculate on subjective issues, so where is the logic there?

Also, my other post was misinterpreted, I was saying a choice of Blackmon or Floyd with the fourth pick plus Martin with the sixth pick. I would gladly take that combination in trade for Ryan Matthews, as long as I am not a strong contender for the league title.

Since this discussion has degenerated into something not fruitful, I am not wasting my time here. Real life is too busy to deal with misinterpretations and vague responses that criticize others.

[doowain]

Mathews easily.

[Dave Stauff]

To me, this one is close enough that it becomes a function of my current roster. I really like the idea of taking two of Richardson, Martin, RGIII, Luck, Blackmon, Floyd - but without knowing your other RB's (and how dependent you would be on Martin falling to 1.4), it's tough to say. I would sit on this and think for a while though . . .

[moderated]

Mathews by a lot.

[golfguy]

in an IDP dynasty league, mathews just went for the 1.2, a 2013 1st rounder (probably around 1.6-1.8) and curtis lofton. if you need a complete rebuild 1.4/1.6 if you can compete this year then mathews

[sspunisher]

This is an easy trade if you are in desperate need for a QB and think that Luck might fall to you at #4. I'd be a bit more hesitant about RGIII but that's an option as well if you need a QB, since these two look pretty special. Just depends on your QB situation and the league rosters. If you don't need a QB, I'd only pull this trade off if I could get Blackmon or Floyd at 4. That won't happen in most leagues, but if TRich and the 2 QBs go 1,2,3 (maybe it's a 2 QB league?) then it'd be worth it IMO. You'd get very solid players at 4 and 6.

[voiceofunreason]

That's a pretty fair trade.

Have to imagine that I would take Luck/RG3 + Martin and be very happy with it.

I would want Ryan right now, but if I kept doing trades like this for a dynasty team and taking the Luck+Martin type of options I would be a juggernaut over time.

Fixed

Even if I ended up with Blackmon/Floyd plus Martin, I wouldn't complain.

Good chance one of the 2 is a bust and the other isn't as good as Mathews. But if you really don't like Mathews and that's the best you can get, I could see it.

???????????? Could I please see your magic future telling crystal ball? If I could predict the future like that I would be a billionaire from the stock market.

Common sense from past drafts. A lot of players are busts and very, very few are studs. So it's playing the odds and being realistic. Relax bud.

I dont know what is crazier, him thinking 4/6 is a good return for Matthews, or that he thinks its possible to land Blackmon and Floyd at 4/6, haha

I post for two reasons, 1) hopefully to help the guy who made the OP, and 2) to have my posts to be critiqued (good or bad). I have a list of posters that I respect, and I highly value their critique of my opinions because they have provided insights/opinions that have helped me become better at playing fantasy football.

I am more concerned about the logic behind a critique/insight/option, than the response itself.

Just for the record, I do know that any rookie can bust, but the other poster response was projecting which rookie may bust, anyone can speculate on subjective issues, so where is the logic there?

Also, my other post was misinterpreted, I was saying a choice of Blackmon or Floyd with the fourth pick plus Martin with the sixth pick. I would gladly take that combination in trade for Ryan Matthews, as long as I am not a strong contender for the league title.

Since this discussion has degenerated into something not fruitful, I am not wasting my time here. Real life is too busy to deal with misinterpretations and vague responses that criticize others.

Garbage. It was said that the guy will pick up 2 and both will be good players. This isn't remotely true. A lot of people fall in love with rookie picks, especially this time of year. I don't want to link to an external site but I've seen an analysis of the last 7 years of picks. Getting a stud player is very rare and out of 2 picks, yes, basically one will be a bust on average. You either need both guys to be quite good or 1 of them to be a real stud and a better player than Mathews. Anyone saying that you get 2 picks and are guaranteed 2 very high quality players is kidding themself and it's bad advice.

I see no logic to anything you've said and you've kind of thrown a hissy fit for no reason at all.

Edited by voiceofunreason, 19 April 2012 - 10:06 AM.

[voiceofunreason]

1st rounders over 7 years of dynasty rookie drafts Stud-19% Good-37% Bust-44% The bust percentage is over 50% outside the top 3 picks - 4th and 5th are both 57%.

[johnadams]

One in hand is worth two in the bush, or so I hear. At this point, I'd much rather have Mathews, but that's cause the NFL draft hasn't happened, making it that much harder to really know the value of those picks. Last year, before the NFL draft, both Williams and LeShoure were getting enough PR that people were talking about one or both being ahead of Ingram depending on the landing spot. After the draft, Williams and LeShoure were both dropped below Thomas on a lot of boards because of their pretty lame landing spots. (Of course, injuries derailed both by the time the season started, but I'm thinking to what happened immediately following the NFL draft). Plus, I think Mathews is in for a great season. Maybe he finds elite, but at worst (barring injury), a legit RB1.

[sspunisher]

Don't trade for picks unless you're confident in your fantasy scouting (player scouting, situation scouting, etc). And I stress that it has to be your scouting, because we often fall in the trap of making statements like "well he's a top 3 pick in every mock draft so you have to take him in the top three." A lot of people on these boards follow the herd. The most knowledgeable guys on these boards are the ones who form their own opinions. I got some heat on here last year when I mentioned that I passed on Mark Ingram to draft Greg Little. Doesn't matter if I was right or wrong, jury is still out, but If you're not comfortable making decisions like that then you should hold onto your studs.

Edited by sspunisher, 19 April 2012 - 10:30 AM.

[JOBOOZOSO]

Impossible to tell right now. All depends on where David Wilson, Doug Martin, LaMichael James, and Lamar Miller end up... and if GB drafts a guy like Isaiah Pead. I hold Mathews until after NFL draft. Better to be safe than sorry.