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Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Hakeem Nicks Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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What has changed for LBJ?

Off season without hold out, at OTAs and minicamps, going to camp.

What's likely to change: Locker may beat out Hasselbeck, His O-Line should be better.

Locker's three games in 2011 were terrible for LBJ. Just terrible. Chris has got to be hoping that Ole Matt can compete this year or that Locker improves. A Lot.

On the other hand if the line improves and can open holes consistently, well, that ought to be good for Mrs Johnsons boy.

I'm an optimist so although I think Locker will start at least ten games, he will be good enough to keep the defenses honest. And I think Bruce Matthews will have used this off season constructively and we'll see a whole new and nasty O-Line for the Titans.

So Chris Johnson should have about 260 carries for 1300 yards, 8 TDs, 50 rec, 480 yrds, 2 TDs, but it could be even better!

 
His stats have declined every season since his crowning 2000 yard effort. I don't think they decline again, but I also don't think he ever gets 1400 yards again either.

 
'msommer said:
What has changed for LBJ?Off season without hold out, at OTAs and minicamps, going to camp.What's likely to change: Locker may beat out Hasselbeck, His O-Line should be better.Locker's three games in 2011 were terrible for LBJ. Just terrible. Chris has got to be hoping that Ole Matt can compete this year or that Locker improves. A Lot.On the other hand if the line improves and can open holes consistently, well, that ought to be good for Mrs Johnsons boy.I'm an optimist so although I think Locker will start at least ten games, he will be good enough to keep the defenses honest. And I think Bruce Matthews will have used this off season constructively and we'll see a whole new and nasty O-Line for the Titans.So Chris Johnson should have about 260 carries for 1300 yards, 8 TDs, 50 rec, 480 yrds, 2 TDs, but it could be even better!
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Locker scored a ton of fantasy points in during his playing time. Chris Johnson's problem was his offensive line letting player after player meet him in the backfield, and then when he did get into space, he just wasn't CJ2K anymore. He looked to me like he was playing to not get hurt, just my impression.
 
CJ is someone who I am hoping slips in this years draft. I'm expecting a rebound year from him. 1500yds 11Tds

 
I want to believe CJ2K has a major rebound ahead. But I can't give you much in the way of quantitative evidence to back up the assertion right now. I really have to think through this situation because I can see it playing out in so many ways, and I'm not sure I would put odds on any one of them yet.

 
I think he rededicates himself.

250 carries, 1100 yards and 6 rushing TDs, 30 receptions, 300 yards, and 1 receiving TD

 
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Can he have a renaissance like Jamal Lewis did a time or two? Sure.

can he be the most frustrating feast or famine RB AGAIN? sure.

I really don't know what there is to talk about this guy by putting him under the microscope because he's not a guy coming off an injury, he's not a guy that is clearing building momentum, he's not a guy with a team that just influxed an overhauled o-line or offensive philosophy.

it's just more of the same with this guy: the people that are grasping to that one awesome season salivating for more and the people that look at his production every other year and point out that he can get you 7 or 37 in any given week and there's no rhyme or reason to it.

I expect more of the same: solid, better than a lot, but not elite. Followed by more threads started on this guy than any other player at the position.

 
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from an OL perspective I have the Titans graded as the league's best unit. And they are about 10% better than the next best line. Besides Roos and Stewart who are All Pro tackles, the team also added Steve Hutchinson who is still a dominant player (7x All Pro, likely HOF). Also of note is their OL coach is Bruce Matthews and their Head coach is Mike Munchak. that's two HOF offensive linemen on the same coaching staff. All of this is good news for Chris Johnson.

 
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I'm hesitant to use second-half splits, but it's worth noting that Johnson's last 8 games puts him on a pace for 282 carries, 1362 (4.83) and 6 TDs with 52 catches for 414 yards and 6 TDs through the air.

Johnson is a player that's difficult to get a read on. I can't even tell if football is his passion and if he's the type to dedicate himself in the off-season. But I do think the talent is there still.

 
this guys a chump

i may take him in the 5th round when he will still be around if i need a solid benchwarmer

 
'Chase Stuart said:
I'm hesitant to use second-half splits, but it's worth noting that Johnson's last 8 games puts him on a pace for 282 carries, 1362 (4.83) and 6 TDs with 52 catches for 414 yards and 6 TDs through the air.Johnson is a player that's difficult to get a read on. I can't even tell if football is his passion and if he's the type to dedicate himself in the off-season. But I do think the talent is there still.
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Very well put. I echo all of this.
 
'Chase Stuart said:
I'm hesitant to use second-half splits, but it's worth noting that Johnson's last 8 games puts him on a pace for 282 carries, 1362 (4.83) and 6 TDs with 52 catches for 414 yards and 6 TDs through the air.

Johnson is a player that's difficult to get a read on. I can't even tell if football is his passion and if he's the type to dedicate himself in the off-season. But I do think the talent is there still.
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I can
 
Some typical stuff in here that is too common in the Shark Pool, I'm guessing most of the anti-CJ camp barely watched any of his games last year, let alone his career. Or maybe they fell victim to him in his 2K season so you learn to hate a guy.

Lot of good things are happening in Tennessee and the most important is that they're setting up for a Jake Locker takeover. He'll most likely win the job in training camp, but if somehow Hasselbeck holds him off, I don't expect it to last long. Why should you care about the QB? Because in 2009, CJ's 2000 yard rampage didn't really start until the Titans were 0-6 and kicked Collins out of the lineup and brought in Vince Young. His mobility stretched the field both vertically and horizontally and was directly responsible for CJ's success. Hasselbeck is an improvement mobility wise over Collins, but that's not saying much. Locker's mobility is more on par w/ Vince Young and I have way more confidence in Locker's arm and decision making. The QB will open the offense up for CJ. I'm definitely not saying we'll see another 2009, but we're more likely to see a 2010 repeat than a 2011 repeat.

300 Rushes, 1400 Yards, 10 TDs

40 Receptions, 300 Yards, 1 TD

 
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I think people are going sour on CJ too quickly. Yes, his numbers have declined the last few seasons, but when was the last time a RBs numbers went up after a 2000 yard campaign? Just under 1400 yards and 11 TDs isn't exactly a dissapointing decline after a season like that. Then, with last season's strike, the hold out, poor conditioning, a new coach/offensive philosophy, an injury, no heart and whatever else you want to throw in, he still managed to break 1000 yards looking like crap.

I expect him to get back to around 1300 yards and 10 TDs on the ground this year, with about 40 receptions for 350 yards and a score or two.

 
If he hasn't lost 1/2 a step, i don't think he has, he is in line for a big bounce back year. I think it took him several games to get into shape last year. 1600 all purpose 12 TD

 
Chris Johnson is going to be one of the most debated players in this series IMO. I expect a lot of action on both sides....one saying he should rebound and be an elite RB and the other saying that he's declined the last two seasons and that his 2009 year was an anomaly.

Personally, I can't see him being an elite RB this year. I don't see Locker improving that much to keep 8 out of the box, and it may look like Britt won't be 100% at anytime in the year, maybe keeping him out much of the year. I think he will have a solid year, but I won't be spending a late 1st/early 2nd on him, as there are other elite players who are safer options and have higher ceilings.

275 car, 1180 yds rushing, 9TD

40 rec, 300 yds, 1TD

 
'fightingillini said:
Chris Johnson is going to be one of the most debated players in this series IMO. I expect a lot of action on both sides....one saying he should rebound and be an elite RB and the other saying that he's declined the last two seasons and that his 2009 year was an anomaly.

Personally, I can't see him being an elite RB this year. I don't see Locker improving that much to keep 8 out of the box, and it may look like Britt won't be 100% at anytime in the year, maybe keeping him out much of the year. I think he will have a solid year, but I won't be spending a late 1st/early 2nd on him, as there are other elite players who are safer options and have higher ceilings.

275 car, 1180 yds rushing, 9TD

40 rec, 300 yds, 1TD
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Just curious, who do you think you can get here that is both safer and has a higher ceiling?
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
'Chase Stuart said:
I'm hesitant to use second-half splits, but it's worth noting that Johnson's last 8 games puts him on a pace for 282 carries, 1362 (4.83) and 6 TDs with 52 catches for 414 yards and 6 TDs through the air.

Johnson is a player that's difficult to get a read on. I can't even tell if football is his passion and if he's the type to dedicate himself in the off-season. But I do think the talent is there still.
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I can
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I won't say this yet, but I do think that these guys are wisening up to the fact that the longer they play, the longer they get paid. You look at someone like Ricky Williams who took his time off (and I want to say he actually did not want to play for Wanstedt) because he felt he was going to get burned up too soon (no pun intended). Also, guys like Fred Taylor got an extra couple of years in their career due to the shift of a committee. We "think" guys don't want to play after being tagged with the franchise or holding out for that new contract so they don't have a catastrophic injury, and while that may be true, I also think they feel they can hold out of camps to extend their careers by getting a little less wear-and-tear in the offseason and preseason. He definitely follows the beat of a different drummer, but I also think he realized he is a bell-cow and would be done in "Marion Barber-time" (i.e. by the time he hits 28). Just my $.02, but economics plays into this much more than we want to believe.

Now that he has his contract AND is in shape, I can see him getting back to that 1300 rushing/400 receiving mark.

 
'Matt Bitonti said:
from an OL perspective I have the Titans graded as the league's best unit. And they are about 10% better than the next best line. Besides Roos and Stewart who are All Pro tackles, the team also added Steve Hutchinson who is still a dominant player (7x All Pro, likely HOF). Also of note is their OL coach is Bruce Matthews and their Head coach is Mike Munchak. that's two HOF offensive linemen on the same coaching staff. All of this is good news for Chris Johnson.
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Where can we see these OL rankings you keep talking about? tia :thumbup:
 
As a dyno owner I'm holding (in one league) and not pursuing (in the other), redraft? I bet he goes round 1 so I probably won't take him, I'd rather have Richardson. If he does fall to round 2 I really, really like him.

 
One of the areas of great production during the first 3 years of CJ2K's career was his proficiency on 3rd & 4th down. His rushing production for these downs on average from 2008-2010 was as follows:

36.33 Rushes

257 Rushing Yards

5 TD's

2011?:

9 Rushes

22 Rushing Yards

0 TD's.

That drop-off was puzzling to me. It says that the coaching staff was making a concerted effort to move away from him in these situations (Michael Turner, a notorious 2 down RB was given 15 carries in 2010 on 3rd/4th down). Now I'll admit that 2010 was his least effective year on 3rd & 4th down during that aforementioned 3 year stretch. But this represents a seismic shift in terms of offensive strategy and I'm going to be keen on hearing about any changes to the way the new coaching staff plans on using him during OTA's & TC to see if they recognize how dramatic it was and if they plan on leveraging his talents with more regularity in these situations again.

For as weak a start to the season as CJ2K had, from a YFS POV, after his first 3 games...he returned back to being a solid yardage RB again (98.2 YFS/game). It was still below the standard that he had set, but I think you can argue that this is his floor.

I can't presume to know how Munchack/Palmer will use CJ2K in 2012. But I would term their usage of him in 2011 as peculiar. Justifiably or unjustifiably...it did not come close to following a pattern that had been established - and the 3rd down numbers are simply too glaring an anomaly to be repeated. The bottomline is that CJ2K is still the best player on the Titans offense and I would be flabbergasted if the Titans didn't look to make him the centerpiece workhorse of their offense...especially if they insert Jake Locker as the starter (which I think they will).

With Javon Ringer not really establishing himself as a worthy option in the run game...I could see CJ2K getting back up to the 300 carry area again and with the distraction of an unsettled contract situation a thing of the past...I think there is some significant upside to mine here.

Prediction: 307 Carries, 1419 Rushing Yards, 9 TD's, 42 Receptions 321 Receiving Yards, 2 TD's.

 
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People are pimping a big rebound season for CJ but I'm not buying. I think his skills are eroding.

1. He only eclipsed 65+ yards rushing 4 times last year.

2. People say he was out of shape. Even buying that, he shoulda been in shape by the last quarter of the season. Plus, if you recall, he had some very nice matchups. Here are his rushing totals: 23, 55, 56, 61. YPC a measly 3.48. No rushing TDs.

3. In the games he didn't total 65 rushing yards(12 of them), he scored a TD in one of them.

4. He hung 190 yards rushing on the Bucs, but they had already given up and were playing pathetic defense.

5. You could argue that his decline started in 2010, when he averaged a 4.3 YPC. That year, Shonn Greene, everyone's favorite punching bag, averaged 4.2 YPC.

6. Last point: over his last 578 carries, he's logged a 4.17 YPC. Not good.

If you're spending a mid-second on him, I can handle it. But I don't think his skills warrant a first round selection, or even early 2nd. I would personally wait until late 2nd to draft him, if I were to at all.

 
Chris Johnson has made good on his word to become a regular in the Titans' offseason program this year. Johnson had made a habit of working out on his own in Orlando in years past. It's nice to see that he's willing to change after a disappointing 2011. "C.J. has worked very hard," OC Chris Palmer said. "He is here, running hard and working hard. I'm very optimistic about how he’s going to perform this (fall)." May 25 - 11:07 AM
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That being said, there is a clause in his contract docking him $250k if he doesn't attend. Regardless, it's a good sign for CJ and the Titans.These are the kind of news reports I look for when predicting a bounce back season for a player. CJ is on the right track to have one.
 
CJ1K running his gums again.

He earned trips to the Pro Bowl, made the covers of magazines and had fantasy football owners scrambling to get in position to pick him. He even earned a catchy nickname — CJ2K.

Coming off a disappointing 2011 season, however, the Tennessee Titans running back believes plenty of fans, media and even coaches and other players have written him off.

"I know it is one of those 'What have you done for me lately?' situations," Johnson said. "People are not going to look at me as the No. 1 running back in the league. There are people out there who aren't going to give me the respect I deserve. But at the end of the day it doesn't matter what anybody else thinks.

"I feel I am still the best back in the league, and I have no problem saying that. None of the active backs have done anything that I have done in the first four years, even though I had a bad year last year. So I still feel like I am the best back in the league."

After collecting a $53.5 million contract extension last September following a lengthy holdout, Johnson averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry. In five games, he rushed for less than 25 yards.

He finished the season with 1,047 yards. Only two years earlier he became just the sixth player in NFL history to run for more than 2,000 yards (2,006) in a season. Through four seasons he has 5,645 yards — more than any back over the same time frame.

So could there be anything to Johnson's perceived slight?

NFL Network's top-100 player ranking for 2012 had Johnson 100th, and not just behind established star running backs Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice and Arian Foster.

Darren Sproles (86), Marshawn Lynch (94) and Willis McGahee (98) were also ahead of Johnson, as were fullbacks Vonta Leach (45) and John Kuhn (92).

"There's a lot of backs now who probably didn't do anything the year before and then they rush for 1,500 yards and they are the top back," Johnson said. "It's crazy, really."

The Titans, including coach Mike Munchak, said the fifth-year pro has made a great attempt this offseason to improve.

For the first time in recent years Johnson has been a regular participant in the team's offseason workout program, which he hadn't participated in since after his rookie season in 2008. In previous years, he worked out with a personal trainer in Orlando and returned to Nashville for most of the organized team activities.

And since last season the 5-11 Johnson has packed on about 10 pounds. He said he weighs around 199 and feels like a stronger player.

"Chris has been great," Munchak said. "He looks good and he has a great attitude, so he is doing everything he needs to come back and have a great year. I think that is encouraging for everyone to see, and that is what you want from one of your top players, that kind of attitude that he has had. He has been awesome.

"He has been here five days a week, not three, not four. A lot of the weeks he has been here all five when that is not even necessary to do. And I think he is realizing the benefits of being here and the benefits of being around his teammates."

Johnson should also benefit from more work with second-year offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and an offensive line with an interior that remains a work in progress.

"He's doing everything that they're asking him to do, and he's here and that's a great start," quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said. "He wasn't here at all last year. That's never easy when you're trying to mesh with new people and stuff like that. He's a great player and a professional, so I'm sure that he'll be back to being C.J."

Johnson, of course, believes that will be the case. With the Titans having strengthened their receiving corps, he thinks defenses will have to divert attention away from him.

"I want to go for another 2,000 yards," Johnson said. "I want to be the first back to go for 2,000 yards twice, and I think it can be done. It doesn't matter what anybody else thinks. I think it can be done."
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'HE DID WHAT!? said:
If he hasn't lost 1/2 a step, i don't think he has, he is in line for a big bounce back year. I think it took him several games to get into shape last year. 1600 all purpose 12 TD
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Even if he's lost half a step, that's still faster than any RB in the league.Put me on the side that thinks he bounces back. The entire Titans offense is going to take a step forward. A healthy Britt, Kendall Wright, a seasoned Jared Cook, and the eventual promotion of Locker can only spell good things for CJ2K. This is going to be a really fun offense to watch when it comes together. Teams won't be able to stack the box and the running lanes should open back up. I'm chalking last year up as a lost year and expecting production north of 2010.310 carries1426 yards4.6 ypc9 TD55 catches410 yards2 TD
 
'Raider Nation said:
CJ1K running his gums again.

"I know it is one of those 'What have you done for me lately?' situations," Johnson said. "People are not going to look at me as the No. 1 running back in the league. There are people out there who aren't going to give me the respect I deserve. But at the end of the day it doesn't matter what anybody else thinks.

"I feel I am still the best back in the league, and I have no problem saying that. None of the active backs have done anything that I have done in the first four years, even though I had a bad year last year. So I still feel like I am the best back in the league."

"I want to go for another 2,000 yards," Johnson said. "I want to be the first back to go for 2,000 yards twice, and I think it can be done. It doesn't matter what anybody else thinks. I think it can be done."
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:thumbup:
 
Last year I couldn't imagine why CJ looked so bad. Now I can't see why I had expected him to be so good. CJ got cocky. Thought he could show up late and pick up where he left off. Hold out. Working out solo. New coach. New scheme. It all proved him dead wrong. Cj was lost last year and he lost heart right along with it.

Now, you see him making the effort to avoid that same mistake. He's showing up at team facilities to work out, be around the staff and teammates, get familiar with the new scheme way ahead of the season. I think CJ is back. Though I doubt he puts up anything close to 2000 yards ever again, I can see 1400 and 11 TDs out of him again. If he's as serious come September as he is now, I think he's good for it.

 
I can't get a good read on this guy heading into this year. The guy has had an interesting career so far. His first 3 years in college he does nothing and than busts out and has a very good senior year. He then runs a 40 time at the combine that grabs attention from people and he vaults into the first round of the NFL draft. Many thought this was a huge reach but he quickly proves it was an excellent pick.

CJ rips up NFL competition with his speed and what appears to be excellent vision as a RB. Has a legendary year runnig for 2000 yards and looking like a stud in only his second year in the league. He has a 3rd year that was a huge step back from his 2nd year with exactly 900 less yards on offense as a player. He did however by NFL standards still have a very good year so he got a pass by fantasy owners as 1500 yards of offense and 12 td's is still quality.

We get a hold out as he feels he deserves to be paid as one of the top NFL rb's in the league and probably deservedly so for his previous 3 years. Then he has a stinker of a year and looked slow and lacked the burst that made him so exciting and effective. He plays all 16 weeks and only runs for more than 64 yards 4 times. He run for 25 yards or less 4 times. Elite rb's are not supposed to be so bad, especially ones that have run for 2000 yards before. So that leads me to my next point.

My concern is no matter how much we want to belive it or not is CJ may just not be as fast as he once was. If he has lost that edge he had on the NFL then is he just an average NFL rb and what will those average stats equate to going forward?

The news as been positive so far as CJ has been at the team facility and working hard, but that may not matter if he is just not as fast as once was.

265 carries at 4.2 = 1113 yards, 8 td's

50 receptions 6 ypc = 300 yards, 1 td

Total yards = 1413 yards and 9 td's

 
'sspunisher said:
Some typical stuff in here that is too common in the Shark Pool, I'm guessing most of the anti-CJ camp barely watched any of his games last year, let alone his career. Or maybe they fell victim to him in his 2K season so you learn to hate a guy. Lot of good things are happening in Tennessee and the most important is that they're setting up for a Jake Locker takeover. He'll most likely win the job in training camp, but if somehow Hasselbeck holds him off, I don't expect it to last long. Why should you care about the QB? Because in 2009, CJ's 2000 yard rampage didn't really start until the Titans were 0-6 and kicked Collins out of the lineup and brought in Vince Young. His mobility stretched the field both vertically and horizontally and was directly responsible for CJ's success. Hasselbeck is an improvement mobility wise over Collins, but that's not saying much. Locker's mobility is more on par w/ Vince Young and I have way more confidence in Locker's arm and decision making. The QB will open the offense up for CJ. I'm definitely not saying we'll see another 2009, but we're more likely to see a 2010 repeat than a 2011 repeat. 300 Rushes, 1400 Yards, 10 TDs40 Receptions, 300 Yards, 1 TD
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he looked like utter crap last yr. i was unlucky, or really dumb, enough to have him on a bunch of teams and at one point i was so frustrated and confused i went back and watched every single one of his carries on nfl game rewind. it was a sickening feeling to realize i was stuck with his sorryass the rest of the year. but hey, i aint an expert, mebbe it was the blocking.
 
The holdout really hurt him. He wasn't in NFL shape when he reported, and that put him behind the 8-ball. The second half of the year, he looked more like the Chris Johnson we were used to. I see a bounce back this year:

285 carries, 1300 yards, 10 TD, 50 receptions, 350 yards, 1 TD

 
'Carter_Can_Fly said:
His first 3 years in college he does nothing and than busts out and has a very good senior year. He then runs a 40 time at the combine that grabs attention from people and he vaults into the first round of the NFL draft. Many thought this was a huge reach but he quickly proves it was an excellent pick.
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Chris broke his neck during his sophomore season in college and he had neck fusion surgery after the season was over. He missed all of spring practice after the surgery, and they were careful with him his junior year, but he was back to full strength his senior season which is why he did so well.
 
KC Joyner aka "The Football Scientist" had a very interesting take on Chris Johnson's 2011 campaign. As has been noted he was pretty awful early and good later. Joyner (whose claim to fame is watching breaking down tape of every play then applying his custom stats a la PFF) said that when Tennessee went from the Mike Heimerdinger offense of 2009/2010 to the Chris Palmer offense of 2011 they changed the nature of their running plays.

Specifically from Heimerdinger running a lot of counters which benefited CJ greatly to a more traditional set of running plays in the Palmer offense. CJ then struggled mightily out of the gate.

According to Joyner Tennesse started implementing counters into the offense and from there CJ's production took off, especially after week 8 or 9.

If that is the case, it would seem to bode well for CJ this year

 
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'Chase Stuart said:
I'm hesitant to use second-half splits, but it's worth noting that Johnson's last 8 games puts him on a pace for 282 carries, 1362 (4.83) and 6 TDs with 52 catches for 414 yards and 6 TDs through the air.

Johnson is a player that's difficult to get a read on. I can't even tell if football is his passion and if he's the type to dedicate himself in the off-season. But I do think the talent is there still.
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wut?edit:

btw here are his 3 good weeks in the 2nd half of the year that puffed up his average

at CAR W 30-3 27c 130yds 4.8 1 td

TB W 23-17 23c 190yds 8.3 0 td

at BUF W 23-17 23c 153yds 6.7 2 td

notice any pattern?

rest of the weeks were crap

 
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buffalo:

shonn greene 6 ypc

ryan matthews 5.7 ypc

carolina:

bye

kevin smith 8.75 ypc (+2 td)

tampa:

starks + grant 3.6 ypc

stewart + williams 4.4 ypc

(carolina punched it in 4 times on ground)

here's how these 3 teams did against various runners in the 2 weeks surrounding the chris johnson game.

I am constantly seeing people parrot this bit about him not being in nfl shape because he held out, or because of the lockout, or whatever.

seriously, htf would any of you people know what kind of shape he's in?

to suggest that by week 14 he was still in such poor shape that he couldn't run more than 23 yards on 11 carries is fairly asinine --- and apparently the coaching staff kept rolling him out there every week despite the fact that he couldn't run more than 2 yards without getting winded.

 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
I am constantly seeing people parrot this bit about him not being in nfl shape because he held out, or because of the lockout, or whatever.seriously, htf would any of you people know what kind of shape he's in?to suggest that by week 14 he was still in such poor shape that he couldn't run more than 23 yards on 11 carries is fairly asinine --- and apparently the coaching staff kept rolling him out there every week despite the fact that he couldn't run more than 2 yards without getting winded.
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It's also asinine to assume he can't bounce back from a poor year. The NFL has the "Comeback Player of the Year" award for a reason.We've all seen this guy do amazing things on the football field. Chris Johnson displayed the most electric combination of speed, vision, and lateral agility many of us have ever seen. It's not like people are making excuses for a player that's never done it before. They're trying to find an explanation for how a player can go from being so dominant to so mediocre in the blink of an eye. Well, there were several possibilities: Holdout, lockout, OC change, he couldn't learn the offense, poor line play, etc. Or maybe Chris Johnson got his money, decided he didn't like football anymore, and mailed it in? I was trying to think of players that had shown the propensity to be great that have done this. Albert Haynesworth comes to mind. That being said, there are also several reasons to think Johnson can return to dominance: No lockout, no holdout, he's working out with teammates for the first time in his career, knows the offense, line improvement, threat of a passing game, and the ever powerful motivation to prove his critics wrong.
 
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I like CJ as nothing more than a low end RB 1 this year. My opinion is a bit biased, as Last year my hand was forced to take him as he fell to me at the 8th overall spot in my 12 teamer last year. Put a bad taste in my mouth, so someone else can have him this year.

 
God am I torn on CJ this year. It's so hard to not sound cliche when I say that I think he will be better than last year but also not as good as he was from 2009-2011. I do like that he seems to be spending a lot of time working out around the team in the offseason, putting in the work.

 
wasn't he working with the team for the first 14 weeks of last season prior to 23 yards on 11 carries?

 
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When Johnson was great, he was busting off long runs where no one touched him. He was able to get outside and his superior speed led to some huge plays. In some ways, he reminds me of a rich man's Michael Bennett. He is better than Bennett ever was--faster and with better vision. But the bottom line is that if he is hit, he is going down. He needs a good hole or opening because he isn't going to manufacture his own yards. It seems like the offensive line has deteriorated in TN. He has been on a long decline since his 2000 yard year. We often hear about "regress to the mean," and that has certainly happened to Johnson. On the other hand, sometimes a player "progresses to the mean," when their production has fallen below its characteristic level. I think that's the case for Johnson. He will improve in 2012 if he can get some better blocking, but I doubt he ever comes close to being a top 3 RB again.

His ypc last year was a career low at 4.0; his career average is 4.8. I think he improves on last year but falls short of his career average. Let's say 4.5 ypc. And let's assume he gets as many carries as last year. The number of carries is a big variable because if he gets 300 as he did in his hey day, then he could have as much as 1350 yards, but that is his cap IMO.

260/1170/7 and 50/370

 
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A Leap of Faith

Evan Silva

Football Daily Dose

Remember last year?

Everyone had their own explanation for Chris Johnson's career-worst season. Early on, Titans coaches went so far as to openly blame themselves for not getting him enough carries.

Look closer, and there were early signs of internal concern. C.J. began losing series of playing time to Javon Ringer as early as Week 2. After that game, Mike Munchak and position coach Jim Skipper summoned Johnson for a private meeting. “They just wanted to really know how I was feeling and things like that and I let them know I was good,” Johnson explained at the time. Days later, Munchak said that Johnson "ran hard" in practice, "which was good to see." We'll cover this more in a bit, but Munchak said those things because Johnson wasn't running hard in the games.

Several football analysts suggested Johnson's struggles were due to poor offensive line play, and there is at least a sliver of truth to that. Tennessee's front five struggled to open holes, particularly on the interior. Football Outsiders graded the Titans as the worst run-blocking unit in the league. Pro Football Focus had them 17th, albeit with a severely "negative" grade.

It should be noted that FO graded the Titans' line 31st in run blocking in 2010, and PFF had them dead last. Yet Johnson's stats dipped across the board. His yards-per-carry average dropped from 4.32 two seasons ago to 3.99. In his prime, Johnson was an elusive runner on top of possessing go-the-distance speed. He really shouldn't need dominant run blocking.

In late October, a new theory arose. Titan Insider reported that Johnson's conditioning level was poor when he arrived at team headquarters in early September, following a training-camp holdout. Beat reporter Terry McCormick's story claimed that Johnson's physical fitness "could be a factor" as to his early-season struggles.

Texans linebacker Brian Cushing had a different take. "If you hit him early, I think it kind of deters him a little bit," said Johnson's division rival. NFL Films guru Greg Cosell suggested Johnson had morphed into a "back that shies away from contact," while missing lateral moves and explosion.

It was around that point that Johnson lashed out at his critics and, less directly, his teammates. "Basically, if you are watching the game and you really can’t tell what is going on with the run game, then I would say you really don’t know football," he said. "I wouldn’t say I am the issue."

A week later, Johnson was benched for Ringer in the fourth quarter of the Titans' Week 8 game against Indianapolis. "The Chris Johnson that we’re used to seeing, I don’t know why we’re not seeing him," NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe said after the Colts game. "Usually, when he got one on one, he could make a guy miss and it was going to be electric. Now he’s just curling up in a ball and looking for the softest spot on the field to lay down." Sharpe works for NFL Network's Playbook program, watching All-22 coaches tape. And the eye in the sky tends not to lie.

More theories for Johnson's struggles popped up over the course of the season. Some blamed the lockout. Others a new offensive coordinator. Johnson's conditioning was an oft-broached topic, as was the line play. In November, people around the league were wondering whether the Titans might cut Johnson after the season. He was playing that badly. Some folks legitimately believe Johnson has entered a state of decline.

"Is he a step slower? Yeah, I'm sure he is," said Munchak in January. "I don't know how you would measure that exactly, but I'm sure he has (lost speed)."

As someone who is interested in fantasy football, I find myself almost rooting for Johnson. He is an every-down back, and those don't grow on trees anymore. We also all saw Johnson take the NFL by storm in 2008 and 2009. He was so much fun to watch. I would love to see that again.

And I want to have a feel for whether it might happen.

I already wrote up two of Johnson's 2011 games for previous Re-Watching pieces. Links to those less comprehensive reviews can be found here and here. To form a stronger opinion, I picked five more: Week 9 versus Cincinnati (18 touches), Week 12 versus Tampa Bay (24 touches), Week 13 at Buffalo (24 touches), Week 15 at Indianapolis (23 touches), and Week 17 at Houston (19).

Keep in mind that three of the five games could be described as favorable matchups. Tampa Bay finished dead last in the NFL in run defense. Buffalo was 28th, and Indy 29th. Cincy and Houston had top-ten run defenses. The Bucs and Bills games were Johnson's best box scores of the year.

On the O-Line Woes

I charted 90 carries in the five games. Defenses got backfield penetration on 36 occasions, a high total (40 percent) and confirmation that Tennessee's offensive line didn't execute enough as a run-blocking unit. The old Chris Johnson excelled at making the initial defender miss, though, and turning negative runs into long ones. 2011 Johnson rarely made the first man miss. And I don't think it was because he couldn't anymore. I think it was because he didn't care to.

Pathetic Pass Blocking

One concern rarely broached is Johnson's pass blocking. He doesn't need to be a sensational blocker if he's posing a dynamic running and receiving threat, but Johnson's blitz-pickup efficacy can affect his playing time. And it also provides a solid clue as to whether his heart was in it on a down-to-down basis. I found Johnson's pass blocking to be thoroughly pathetic in the five games.

Charting 31 opportunities, I credited Johnson with a measly six effective pass blocks. 13 times, Johnson appeared to take a pass-blocking stance but did not make contact with an oncoming defender. This occurred either because he had no interest in blocking, or a defender did not race directly at him. I charted Johnson with 12 unsuccessful pass blocks, meaning he did identify a blitzer but did not block him. Johnson's poor blocking contributed to three sacks in the five games.

The Titans knew Johnson was blocking poorly and consistently pulled him for Javon Ringer on passing downs. Ringer is barely a replacement-level talent as a ball carrier and receiver. I'm not sure he's going to last much longer in the league. But Ringer is a far better pass blocker than Johnson. OC Chris Palmer has extensive background in the run-and-shoot, and increasingly used four- and five-wide sets down the stretch last season. Tennessee is going to throw the ball an awful lot more in 2012, and it will need its tailback to be able to block. Or at least to be willing.

Running out of Bounds

I harkened back to Cosell's in-season comments calling Johnson an "avoid-contact runner" when viewing him run out of bounds in the five games, rather than turn upfield for additional yards. The tendency was especially evident in the Bengals and Bucs games. Johnson didn't want to get hit, so he'd use the sideline as a safe haven on plays to the perimeter. This goes hand in hand with the undeniable fact that Johnson refused to finish runs in 2011. It was a problem all year long.

What made Johnson so special during his first three NFL seasons was his ability to combine electrifying long speed and cuts with instinctive, fearless inside running and physicality at the end of runs. Johnson is 5-foot-11 and about 200 pounds. Coming out of East Carolina, many teams graded him as a future change-of-pace back. The long speed was great, but he took the league by storm because he was so good between the tackles, created space for himself regularly, and packed legitimate pop. He suddenly morphed into the league's least physical back in 2011.

Will Johnson Turn it Around?

Like Randy Moss after he was traded out of Oakland, and even Michael Vick when he got out of prison, Johnson has plenty of juice left in his tank. His 2011 problems had to do with effort. I can say this with supreme confidence after witnessing nearly all of his games between last year's in-season observations and subsequent offseason reviews. There certainly were flashes of it against the Bills and Bucs. Johnson still cuts on a dime and can outrace defensive backs when he feels up for it. Whether he turns his career back around and has a rebound season is entirely up to him.

Johnson's improved offseason commitment level has been widely billed as a promising sign -- an indication that he wants "it" again. Perhaps that is the case, or perhaps he'll revert to his on-field shell after the first big hit. As far as predictive analysis goes, spring puff pieces are hit or miss. Johnson was the subject of many.

The fact that Johnson quit last season -- in my opinion -- makes him a fantasy player I will likely look to avoid in 2012. You're just not going to find many running backs who can match his potential workload and god-given talent. Undoubtedly, it's an enticing combination.

But I think that, because Johnson showed the frightening capacity to flip his own off-switch, drafting him for your fantasy football team this year requires a leap of faith.
Click to expand...
 
'Grahamburn said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
I am constantly seeing people parrot this bit about him not being in nfl shape because he held out, or because of the lockout, or whatever.

seriously, htf would any of you people know what kind of shape he's in?

to suggest that by week 14 he was still in such poor shape that he couldn't run more than 23 yards on 11 carries is fairly asinine --- and apparently the coaching staff kept rolling him out there every week despite the fact that he couldn't run more than 2 yards without getting winded.
Click to expand...
It's also asinine to assume he can't bounce back from a poor year. The NFL has the "Comeback Player of the Year" award for a reason.We've all seen this guy do amazing things on the football field. Chris Johnson displayed the most electric combination of speed, vision, and lateral agility many of us have ever seen. It's not like people are making excuses for a player that's never done it before. They're trying to find an explanation for how a player can go from being so dominant to so mediocre in the blink of an eye. Well, there were several possibilities: Holdout, lockout, OC change, he couldn't learn the offense, poor line play, etc.

Or maybe Chris Johnson got his money, decided he didn't like football anymore, and mailed it in? I was trying to think of players that had shown the propensity to be great that have done this. Albert Haynesworth comes to mind.

That being said, there are also several reasons to think Johnson can return to dominance: No lockout, no holdout, he's working out with teammates for the first time in his career, knows the offense, line improvement, threat of a passing game, and the ever powerful motivation to prove his critics wrong.
Click to expand...
That's really irrelevant. Lots of guys have done great things in the past. This is the present. Even in the best of times, CJ always has had that feast or famine aspect of his game. He made up for it with monstor games but half his games are those 70 yards and narry a TD type too (literally..go look, almost half his games are 70 yards or less). The problem with an electric, dynamic player like CJ is that once the speed goes, that's it. Everything else falls like a house of cards. Without the speed, he's really just another guy. The Lateral shiftiness and ability to get outside are gone. The breakaway speed, obviously. now its not like we are saying he's clocking 5.8 fortys now but the margin is razor thin. After all, there is a reason why some people get all bent out of shape when discussing the "VAST" differences between guys that run a 4.52 and the guy that runs a 4.36. Recall, when CJ came into the league, the knock on him was he couldn't run inside and carry the load. Well, he did and became a go to guy vs. a COP back. But last year, he couldn't (or wouldn't) run inside. So, now, if you talk about losing speed and a loss of the inside running, that's basically everything in his magic hat.

Again, the past is the past and some guys are affectd by changes much more than others. A guy like Reggie Wayne had attributes but never relied on one aspect. So his decline levels smoothly. Same with jerome Bettis. A guy like Jamal Lewis, on the other hand, or Torry Holt, or PERHAPS CJ, seems to be different.

his own coach is on record after the season saying he thinks he lost a step.

 
'Shutout said:
That's really irrelevant. Lots of guys have done great things in the past. This is the present. Even in the best of times, CJ always has had that feast or famine aspect of his game. He made up for it with monstor games but half his games are those 70 yards and narry a TD type too (literally..go look, almost half his games are 70 yards or less).
Click to expand...
so's ray rice.
 
'Shutout said:
'Grahamburn said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
I am constantly seeing people parrot this bit about him not being in nfl shape because he held out, or because of the lockout, or whatever.

seriously, htf would any of you people know what kind of shape he's in?

to suggest that by week 14 he was still in such poor shape that he couldn't run more than 23 yards on 11 carries is fairly asinine --- and apparently the coaching staff kept rolling him out there every week despite the fact that he couldn't run more than 2 yards without getting winded.
Click to expand...
It's also asinine to assume he can't bounce back from a poor year. The NFL has the "Comeback Player of the Year" award for a reason.We've all seen this guy do amazing things on the football field. Chris Johnson displayed the most electric combination of speed, vision, and lateral agility many of us have ever seen. It's not like people are making excuses for a player that's never done it before. They're trying to find an explanation for how a player can go from being so dominant to so mediocre in the blink of an eye. Well, there were several possibilities: Holdout, lockout, OC change, he couldn't learn the offense, poor line play, etc.

Or maybe Chris Johnson got his money, decided he didn't like football anymore, and mailed it in? I was trying to think of players that had shown the propensity to be great that have done this. Albert Haynesworth comes to mind.

That being said, there are also several reasons to think Johnson can return to dominance: No lockout, no holdout, he's working out with teammates for the first time in his career, knows the offense, line improvement, threat of a passing game, and the ever powerful motivation to prove his critics wrong.
Click to expand...
That's really irrelevant. Lots of guys have done great things in the past. This is the present. Even in the best of times, CJ always has had that feast or famine aspect of his game. He made up for it with monstor games but half his games are those 70 yards and narry a TD type too (literally..go look, almost half his games are 70 yards or less). The problem with an electric, dynamic player like CJ is that once the speed goes, that's it. Everything else falls like a house of cards. Without the speed, he's really just another guy. The Lateral shiftiness and ability to get outside are gone. The breakaway speed, obviously. now its not like we are saying he's clocking 5.8 fortys now but the margin is razor thin. After all, there is a reason why some people get all bent out of shape when discussing the "VAST" differences between guys that run a 4.52 and the guy that runs a 4.36. Recall, when CJ came into the league, the knock on him was he couldn't run inside and carry the load. Well, he did and became a go to guy vs. a COP back. But last year, he couldn't (or wouldn't) run inside. So, now, if you talk about losing speed and a loss of the inside running, that's basically everything in his magic hat.

Again, the past is the past and some guys are affectd by changes much more than others. A guy like Reggie Wayne had attributes but never relied on one aspect. So his decline levels smoothly. Same with jerome Bettis. A guy like Jamal Lewis, on the other hand, or Torry Holt, or PERHAPS CJ, seems to be different.

his own coach is on record after the season saying he thinks he lost a step.
Click to expand...
:confused: Not really sure how what I typed was irrelevant. Larry asked why people were making excuses for his 2011 season. There seem to be several factors in addition to Chris Johnson not caring. I

Chris Johnson has more yards rushing in his first 4 seasons than any other RB ever had in their first 4, even with his poor 2011. If you think that guy forgot how to play, that's fine, but I doubt it.

If he wants it again he's going to be a stud.

 
"Live from Titans training camp Friday, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Chris Johnson has been impressive in practice and appears destined for a bounce-back season."

Are you excited to draft CJ this year, or willing to take him because he might be the best available option?

 
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