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Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Vincent Jackson Player Page

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I think Vjax is going to be a very big bust this year. I don't like his situation this year as much as years past and I really see him as a take the money and run kind of guy.

65 catches

800 yards

5 tds

 
I have a feeling that Josh Freeman is going to force balls to Jackson this year, as he will try to take advantage of having a legit #1. Freeman has struggled with the deep ball in the past, but he's also never had a receiver like Jackson to throw it to. Some people will point to the downgrade from Freeman to Rivers being a concern, but I see it as a positive since Freeman isn't known to spread the ball around as much as Rivers.

I see..

70 Catches

1150 Yards

9 touchdowns

In PPR leagues, that equates to 239 points, which would place him on the low end of WR1 numbers.

 
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'solorca said:
I have a feeling that Josh Freeman is going to force balls to Jackson this year, as he will try to take advantage of having a legit #1. Freeman has struggled with the deep ball in the past, but he's also never had a receiver like Jackson to throw it to. Some people will point to the downgrade from Freeman to Rivers being a concern, but I see it as a positive since Freeman isn't known to spread the ball around as much as Rivers.I see..70 Catches1150 Yards9 touchdownsIn PPR leagues, that equates to 239 points, which would place him on the low end of WR1 numbers.
Click to expand...
VJax career highs: 68 receptions 1167 yards 9 TDs. If you think he's going to somehow peak at age 29 in a new situation, with a worse QB, and a fat paycheck...be my guest. I however just don't see it.
 
I’m bullish on Mr. Jackson. Here’s why:

As the #1 wideout for what will be a pass happy Buc’s team, with a legit #2 wideout opposite him in Mike Williams, and a legitimate franchise QB in Josh Freeman, the pieces are all there for fantasy success.

• Tampa’s Defense: It was abysmal last year and their defense is at best a work in progress and you can expect Tampa to be in a lot of shootouts this year.

• Tampa’s Offense: Greg Schiano’s offense is going to be a downfield vertical throw-it-up-top style with a lot of big plays. It kind of reminds me of the Raiders old school stretch-the-field and make them defend every inch offense.

• Josh Freeman: He showed up 20 pounds lighter and it will show on the field. He can wing with anyone and finally has a WR who can sky for the high pass downfield. Jackson has the superior height and speed and overall catching ability (as advertised by his premier free agent WR status) to improve on his numbers with Phillip Rivers last year.

• Tight End: Kellen Winslow II is now gone and the TE position will not be a fantasy viable position in Tampa this year. Again, this is all part of the new downfield scheme. Luke Stocker and Dallas Clark are not going to steal significant targets from the Bucs wideouts.

• Running Backs: Doug Martin instantly upgrades the running back position and lights a fire under LeGarrette Blount, who many are prematurely writing off. In reality, the tandem is an ideal situation to keep safeties from cheating and creating space and separation for Vincent Jackson and the other wideouts.

Projection:

70/1250/10

 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'solorca said:
I have a feeling that Josh Freeman is going to force balls to Jackson this year, as he will try to take advantage of having a legit #1. Freeman has struggled with the deep ball in the past, but he's also never had a receiver like Jackson to throw it to. Some people will point to the downgrade from Freeman to Rivers being a concern, but I see it as a positive since Freeman isn't known to spread the ball around as much as Rivers.I see..70 Catches1150 Yards9 touchdownsIn PPR leagues, that equates to 239 points, which would place him on the low end of WR1 numbers.
Click to expand...
VJax career highs: 68 receptions 1167 yards 9 TDs. If you think he's going to somehow peak at age 29 in a new situation, with a worse QB, and a fat paycheck...be my guest. I however just don't see it.
Click to expand...
I don't really think he'll peak in talent, but I think he'll peak in situation. Rivers spreads the ball around to everyone on the field, while I see Freeman trying to take advantage of his talents. I should point out that I owned Vincent Jackson many times over the years and I hate having him on my teams. He's one of those guys that frustrates the hell out of me with his up and down games...but I think that he will be a more consistent in Tampa Bay. I expect a lot of 5/70/1 games, rather than the combo of 2/14/0 and 8/190/2.
 
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'Raiderfan32904 said:
I’m bullish on Mr. Jackson. Here’s why:

As the #1 wideout for what will be a pass happy Buc’s team, with a legit #2 wideout opposite him in Mike Williams, and a legitimate franchise QB in Josh Freeman, the pieces are all there for fantasy success.

• Tampa’s Defense: It was abysmal last year and their defense is at best a work in progress and you can expect Tampa to be in a lot of shootouts this year.

• Tampa’s Offense: Greg Schiano’s offense is going to be a downfield vertical throw-it-up-top style with a lot of big plays. It kind of reminds me of the Raiders old school stretch-the-field and make them defend every inch offense.

• Josh Freeman: He showed up 20 pounds lighter and it will show on the field. He can wing with anyone and finally has a WR who can sky for the high pass downfield. Jackson has the superior height and speed and overall catching ability (as advertised by his premier free agent WR status) to improve on his numbers with Phillip Rivers last year.

• Tight End: Kellen Winslow II is now gone and the TE position will not be a fantasy viable position in Tampa this year. Again, this is all part of the new downfield scheme. Luke Stocker and Dallas Clark are not going to steal significant targets from the Bucs wideouts.

• Running Backs: Doug Martin instantly upgrades the running back position and lights a fire under LeGarrette Blount, who many are prematurely writing off. In reality, the tandem is an ideal situation to keep safeties from cheating and creating space and separation for Vincent Jackson and the other wideouts.

Projection:

70/1250/10
Click to expand...
Schiano is a run run run first coach

 
I think VJax has emerged as "The" guy, and his offseason contract has proven it. He will be the focus of the passing game, and Schiano targeted him as one of his prize pickups, he will put him in spots to succeed. Rivers will miss this guy this year.

Although Schiano wants to run run run, there will be balance, and with help from Williams, Parker and Benn and newly signed Dclark, double teams might not come on every passing down.

I like 80 catches, 7 tds and 1200 yards.

 
'Raiderfan32904 said:
I’m bullish on Mr. Jackson. Here’s why:As the #1 wideout for what will be a pass happy Buc’s team, with a legit #2 wideout opposite him in Mike Williams, and a legitimate franchise QB in Josh Freeman, the pieces are all there for fantasy success. • Tampa’s Defense: It was abysmal last year and their defense is at best a work in progress and you can expect Tampa to be in a lot of shootouts this year. • Tampa’s Offense: Greg Schiano’s offense is going to be a downfield vertical throw-it-up-top style with a lot of big plays. It kind of reminds me of the Raiders old school stretch-the-field and make them defend every inch offense.• Josh Freeman: He showed up 20 pounds lighter and it will show on the field. He can wing with anyone and finally has a WR who can sky for the high pass downfield. Jackson has the superior height and speed and overall catching ability (as advertised by his premier free agent WR status) to improve on his numbers with Phillip Rivers last year.• Tight End: Kellen Winslow II is now gone and the TE position will not be a fantasy viable position in Tampa this year. Again, this is all part of the new downfield scheme. Luke Stocker and Dallas Clark are not going to steal significant targets from the Bucs wideouts.• Running Backs: Doug Martin instantly upgrades the running back position and lights a fire under LeGarrette Blount, who many are prematurely writing off. In reality, the tandem is an ideal situation to keep safeties from cheating and creating space and separation for Vincent Jackson and the other wideouts. Projection:70/1250/10
Click to expand...
Good post ... only concern I have with the above is that Freeman's down the field accuracy has been horrendous. I see the Bucs running an offense similar to Houston, where there's a couple of decent backs and a deep threat. If Freeman can improve his down the field throws it's very possible VJAX will have a career year in yardage. I also think he's going to be used differently, and on 3rd downs isn't going to be running post routes, but instead will be sort of a possession receiver to help move the chains. He's got a huge body and very wide catch radius ... I think San Diego didn't use him to the full extent of his abilities.Realistically, given there will be a learning curve on a new team with a new offense:67 / 1050 / 8 TDs
 
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9

 
'wdcrob said:
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9
Click to expand...
Mike Williams, Benn, and Doug Martin will get plenty of targets...then you can add in Parker, Briscoe, Stocker.
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9
Click to expand...
Mike Williams, Benn, and Doug Martin will get plenty of targets...then you can add in Parker, Briscoe, Stocker.
Click to expand...
RB targets generally steal from rushes, not WR targets. And as I suggested above... I just disagree with anyone who says they paid Jackson as a top-5 WR to let middling to terrible NFL talents like Parker, Briscoe, Stocker or Benn keep him from seeing the ball.
 
Opportunity should be what breaks the flood gates open for VJAX in fantasy this year.

A team improving on defense in a division with three prolific QBS and dynamic offenses should be the recipe for lots of catchup and shootout games.

The removal of Winslow who has led the team in catches and end zone targets should improve the opportunity in both those areas.

That should leave VJAX in a realistic area to have 140 targets or so. Even if he only catches every three out of four thrown to him, that would leave him at around 98 catches.

I expect him to be used to move the chains more and double digit TDs should be reasonable.

All the opportunity in the world is here for him this year. It should be his best year ever, statistically, and he should be a more consistent threat in fantasy this year because he should be targeted a lot. I would expect in PPRs, he will finally be that guy that you just plug in every week and know he will get his targets. Honestly, how can this guy NOT get 8 or 9 targets a week on this team, in this situaiton, playing with the guys he is playing with?

My best comparison that I think of with him is he becomes AJ Johnson. The clear big threat that can be used anywhere on the field to move chains, go deep, used in the red zone, etc.

His stat line at the end of games could just as easily be 4-89-1 as it might be 8-136 (and maybe 1TD). I get the feeling that you will see a lot of 9, 8, 11, 47 yard complettions throughout games. Just wherever it comes to him.

 
'wdcrob said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9
Click to expand...
Mike Williams, Benn, and Doug Martin will get plenty of targets...then you can add in Parker, Briscoe, Stocker.
Click to expand...
RB targets generally steal from rushes, not WR targets. And as I suggested above... I just disagree with anyone who says they paid Jackson as a top-5 WR to let middling to terrible NFL talents like Parker, Briscoe, Stocker or Benn keep him from seeing the ball.
Click to expand...
Lesean McCoy, Sproles, Forte, etc all steal targets from WRs on NFL teams because they're great pass catching RBs. Martin may not be at that level, but he is good and certainly an upgrade from what the Bucs had last season...meaning more RB targets in TB this year.You're ignored Mike Williams(4th round pick)...you know the #1 WR the last two years in TB is still on the team. Both Williams and Benn(2nd round pick) are entering year 3 which is generally a breakthrough year in the development of a WR.

Nobody is saying another skill position player will lead TB in targets...but to suggest that Tampa has poor talent at the skill positions isn't accurate.

ETA: Just because TB paid Vincent Jackson top 5 money doesn't mean he will produce at that level. The last few free agent WR signings haven't turned out well...Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes(trade), TJ Housh

 
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'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9
Click to expand...
Mike Williams, Benn, and Doug Martin will get plenty of targets...then you can add in Parker, Briscoe, Stocker.
Click to expand...
RB targets generally steal from rushes, not WR targets. And as I suggested above... I just disagree with anyone who says they paid Jackson as a top-5 WR to let middling to terrible NFL talents like Parker, Briscoe, Stocker or Benn keep him from seeing the ball.
Click to expand...
Lesean McCoy, Sproles, Forte, etc all steal targets from WRs on NFL teams because they're great pass catching RBs. Martin may not be at that level, but he is good and certainly an upgrade from what the Bucs had last season...meaning more RB targets in TB this year.You're ignored Mike Williams(4th round pick)...you know the #1 WR the last two years in TB is still on the team. Both Williams and Benn(2nd round pick) are entering year 3 which is generally a breakthrough year in the development of a WR.

Nobody is saying another skill position player will lead TB in targets...but to suggest that Tampa has poor talent at the skill positions isn't accurate.

ETA: Just because TB paid Vincent Jackson top 5 money doesn't mean he will produce at that level. The last few free agent WR signings haven't turned out well...Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes(trade), TJ Housh
Click to expand...
Just to nitpick:BMW was the #1 WR, yes, but the #2 team target and that suggests something when your TE is the target leader. I guess you could say Mike Thomas was the #1 WR in JAX last year but does that mean much when a more talented player like Blackmon arrives?

Those last few WR free agents really had nobody throwing to them. I expect Freeman is better than that.

 
'Shutout said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9
Click to expand...
Mike Williams, Benn, and Doug Martin will get plenty of targets...then you can add in Parker, Briscoe, Stocker.
Click to expand...
RB targets generally steal from rushes, not WR targets. And as I suggested above... I just disagree with anyone who says they paid Jackson as a top-5 WR to let middling to terrible NFL talents like Parker, Briscoe, Stocker or Benn keep him from seeing the ball.
Click to expand...
Lesean McCoy, Sproles, Forte, etc all steal targets from WRs on NFL teams because they're great pass catching RBs. Martin may not be at that level, but he is good and certainly an upgrade from what the Bucs had last season...meaning more RB targets in TB this year.You're ignored Mike Williams(4th round pick)...you know the #1 WR the last two years in TB is still on the team. Both Williams and Benn(2nd round pick) are entering year 3 which is generally a breakthrough year in the development of a WR.

Nobody is saying another skill position player will lead TB in targets...but to suggest that Tampa has poor talent at the skill positions isn't accurate.

ETA: Just because TB paid Vincent Jackson top 5 money doesn't mean he will produce at that level. The last few free agent WR signings haven't turned out well...Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes(trade), TJ Housh
Click to expand...
Just to nitpick:BMW was the #1 WR, yes, but the #2 team target and that suggests something when your TE is the target leader. I guess you could say Mike Thomas was the #1 WR in JAX last year but does that mean much when a more talented player like Blackmon arrives?

Those last few WR free agents really had nobody throwing to them. I expect Freeman is better than that.
Click to expand...
Good points, i'm not a Mike Williams fan at all...but he will still get his targets(plus already has rapport with Freeman).They didn't have good QBs throwing to him...but Freeman also wasn't good last year either. Most of the time a 29 year old WR that switches teams in Free Agency usually doesn't come out and have a career year(I guess i'm in the minority in that theory though).

 
'Blackjacks said:
I think Vjax is going to be a very big bust this year. I don't like his situation this year as much as years past and I really see him as a take the money and run kind of guy.65 catches800 yards5 tds
Click to expand...
Ouch. What are you projecting for Freeman?Jackson is a career 17.5 yard per catch player. You've got him at 12.3. Since becoming the WR1 in San Diego, VJ had 3 1,100 yard seasons and 7, 9, and 9 TDs respectively. I'm throwing out 2010.Tampa is going to be a run first take your shots downfield offense. I'd expect Jackson's numbers to be pretty similar to what he put up in SD. 61 receptions, 1,050 yards, and 8 TDs.
 
'Grahamburn said:
'Blackjacks said:
I think Vjax is going to be a very big bust this year. I don't like his situation this year as much as years past and I really see him as a take the money and run kind of guy.65 catches800 yards5 tds
Click to expand...
Ouch. What are you projecting for Freeman?Jackson is a career 17.5 yard per catch player. You've got him at 12.3. Since becoming the WR1 in San Diego, VJ had 3 1,100 yard seasons and 7, 9, and 9 TDs respectively. I'm throwing out 2010.Tampa is going to be a run first take your shots downfield offense. I'd expect Jackson's numbers to be pretty similar to what he put up in SD. 61 receptions, 1,050 yards, and 8 TDs.
Click to expand...
Rivers's stregth is his accuracy (especially on the long ball) Freeman's weakness is the deep bal......Why do you think his avg wouldnt go down?
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'Shutout said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
'wdcrob said:
I think there's way too much uncertainty about the situation in TB to make a high-confidence prediction, but Jackson has finished as WR10, WR10 and WR12 on 101, 107 and 114 targets previously and there are targets galore available in Tampa right now.

So unless you think that the Bucs brought Jackson in and paid him $55m so they could throw the ball to Preston Parker, Dez Briscoe and Luke Stocker you have to think Jackson's going to see a nice bump in opportunity -- anything between 120 and 140 targets seems reasonable.

And considering he's currently something like the 19th or 20th ranked WR he should be fantastic value as a WR2.

WAG: 72/1200/9
Click to expand...
Mike Williams, Benn, and Doug Martin will get plenty of targets...then you can add in Parker, Briscoe, Stocker.
Click to expand...
RB targets generally steal from rushes, not WR targets. And as I suggested above... I just disagree with anyone who says they paid Jackson as a top-5 WR to let middling to terrible NFL talents like Parker, Briscoe, Stocker or Benn keep him from seeing the ball.
Click to expand...
Lesean McCoy, Sproles, Forte, etc all steal targets from WRs on NFL teams because they're great pass catching RBs. Martin may not be at that level, but he is good and certainly an upgrade from what the Bucs had last season...meaning more RB targets in TB this year.You're ignored Mike Williams(4th round pick)...you know the #1 WR the last two years in TB is still on the team. Both Williams and Benn(2nd round pick) are entering year 3 which is generally a breakthrough year in the development of a WR.

Nobody is saying another skill position player will lead TB in targets...but to suggest that Tampa has poor talent at the skill positions isn't accurate.

ETA: Just because TB paid Vincent Jackson top 5 money doesn't mean he will produce at that level. The last few free agent WR signings haven't turned out well...Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes(trade), TJ Housh
Click to expand...
Just to nitpick:BMW was the #1 WR, yes, but the #2 team target and that suggests something when your TE is the target leader. I guess you could say Mike Thomas was the #1 WR in JAX last year but does that mean much when a more talented player like Blackmon arrives?

Those last few WR free agents really had nobody throwing to them. I expect Freeman is better than that.
Click to expand...
Good points, i'm not a Mike Williams fan at all...but he will still get his targets(plus already has rapport with Freeman).They didn't have good QBs throwing to him...but Freeman also wasn't good last year either. Most of the time a 29 year old WR that switches teams in Free Agency usually doesn't come out and have a career year(I guess i'm in the minority in that theory though).
Click to expand...
Very true. Don't know about other people, but IMO, the difference this time (if it occurs) will be because of an atypical situation where opportunity actually aligns up better than what it normally does.
 
'Shutout said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
They didn't have good QBs throwing to him...but Freeman also wasn't good last year either. Most of the time a 29 year old WR that switches teams in Free Agency usually doesn't come out and have a career year(I guess i'm in the minority in that theory though).
Click to expand...
Very true. Don't know about other people, but IMO, the difference this time (if it occurs) will be because of an atypical situation where opportunity actually aligns up better than what it normally does.
Click to expand...
29 years old isn't old for a wide receiver. It's practically a prime year for him. And I am failed to be convinced of the context of other star WR's situations on other teams prior having anything to do with the Tampa Bucs of the here and now. That argument just doesn't hold water. Maybe the jury is out on whether or not Freeman is as good as some claim him to be. That's a valid doubt and certainly debatable. But using historical comparisons as a pertinent point of analysis is weak.
 
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
Lesean McCoy, Sproles, Forte, etc all steal targets from WRs on NFL teams because they're great pass catching RBs. Martin may not be at that level, but he is good and certainly an upgrade from what the Bucs had last season...meaning more RB targets in TB this year.You're ignored Mike Williams(4th round pick)...you know the #1 WR the last two years in TB is still on the team. Both Williams and Benn(2nd round pick) are entering year 3 which is generally a breakthrough year in the development of a WR.Nobody is saying another skill position player will lead TB in targets...but to suggest that Tampa has poor talent at the skill positions isn't accurate.ETA: Just because TB paid Vincent Jackson top 5 money doesn't mean he will produce at that level. The last few free agent WR signings haven't turned out well...Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes(trade), TJ Housh
Click to expand...
Like I said... we just disagree. I think Benn is beyond horrible, Parker and Briscoe aren't much better (if at all) and Stocker is a middle of the road NFL TE along the lines of an L.J. Smith or Ben Watson (maybe even a bit better).And if the Bucs thought Mike Williams was a #1 WR they wouldn't have gotten Jackson IMO. Teams don't generally shell out $55m for bit player WR2s. Again, just an honest disagreement.So IMO Jackson's pretty much guaranteed more targets than he's ever had and might see an increase of 20-25 over the 114 total he had last year.And I agree that Martin is a good pass-catching back. Was just saying that, on average, coaches seem to substitute passes to the RB in place of runs -- the # of passes a back catches doesn't correlate very well (or maybe at all) to a reduction in the # of passes the WRs get. YMMV as far as the 2012 TB Bucs goes.
 
'Blackjacks said:
'Grahamburn said:
'Blackjacks said:
I think Vjax is going to be a very big bust this year. I don't like his situation this year as much as years past and I really see him as a take the money and run kind of guy.65 catches800 yards5 tds
Click to expand...
Ouch. What are you projecting for Freeman?Jackson is a career 17.5 yard per catch player. You've got him at 12.3. Since becoming the WR1 in San Diego, VJ had 3 1,100 yard seasons and 7, 9, and 9 TDs respectively. I'm throwing out 2010.Tampa is going to be a run first take your shots downfield offense. I'd expect Jackson's numbers to be pretty similar to what he put up in SD. 61 receptions, 1,050 yards, and 8 TDs.
Click to expand...
Rivers's stregth is his accuracy (especially on the long ball) Freeman's weakness is the deep bal......Why do you think his avg wouldnt go down?
Click to expand...
It might go down, but 5 yards is a pretty drastic decrease.
 
Are deep rountes Freeman's weakness? Or are deep routes the weakness of the WRs who've been running them for the last two years?

 
'Shutout said:
The removal of Winslow who has led the team in catches and end zone targets should improve the opportunity in both those areas.
Click to expand...
This is one of the more interesting developments. I'd be curious to see a split on VJax's production when Gates was healthy vs. Gates not playing. Seems to me that his excellent ypc had a lot to do with Gates taking safety coverage away. I'm not sure that he's really been a true #1 WR because of Gates. In a quick check, in VJax's most productive years, Gates has been relatively healthy. I really struggle with VJax. He seems to have everything you could want from a true #1 WR, but hasn't put together the type of season that I'd expect. I'm not sure if that's because he just isn't as good as I think he is or if it's because of the offense that he's been in. I don't think Freeman is in the same class as Rivers, but I definitely can see his targets increasing. I'm drafting him as a mid range WR2 (high WR2 in non-PPR) with legit WR1 upside though the uncertainty of him in a new situation (in many ways) tempers my enthusiasm.Ceiling: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 12 TD. Forecast: 75 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TDFloor: 60 catches, 900 yards, 6 TD
 
I don’t want to give the impression that Vincent Jackson is ineffective. But aside from Desean Jackson, he simply is the streakiest WR in the NFL. And that was with a QB the caliber of Philip Rivers throwing him the ball.

Question: In his career, how many times has Vincent Jackson surpassed 6 receptions in a game (not including playoffs)? The answer is 6. For a player perceived as a #1 WR, that’s an extremely low figure. I get that VJax did not emerge as a big time player until about 4 seasons ago…but this simply tells me that when he goes big, he goes big by capitalizing on lower percentage plays.

Over the last 4 seasons, VJax has generated 39.38% of his yardage production on passes thrown 21+ yards and 39.29% of his TD production on such throws as well. This despite Rivers only accumulating 18.89% of his yardage and 26.9% of his TD production during the same time period on such throws

The fact of the matter is that VJax is downgrading, both in terms of 1) offense that can exploit his abilities and 2) personnel that can compliment his abilities. In San Diego, the primary target for Philip Rivers was Antonio Gates. VJax was able to benefit from the attention defenses paid to that part of their passing game. Mike Williams will not be able to offer this type of support. In fact, IMO, the value play in this passing game is Williams. Not to mention, Philip Rivers bad days are if not better than Josh Freeman’s good days, at least in the same neighborhood. Over the last 4 seasons, Rivers YPA has been 8.43. Freeman sports a career 6.77 figure.

The most indelible impression though I have with VJax was that it didn’t seem like SD’s passing game skipped a beat when he held out in 2010. Rivers was just as prolific as before and quite frankly, I don’t think it can be overlooked that SD really did not make much of an effort to replace VJax.

Right now, FFC has him as WR21. That seems about right.

Prediction: 58 receptions, 951 receiving yards, 6 TD’s.

 
'Raiderfan32904 said:
'Shutout said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
They didn't have good QBs throwing to him...but Freeman also wasn't good last year either. Most of the time a 29 year old WR that switches teams in Free Agency usually doesn't come out and have a career year(I guess i'm in the minority in that theory though).
Click to expand...
Very true. Don't know about other people, but IMO, the difference this time (if it occurs) will be because of an atypical situation where opportunity actually aligns up better than what it normally does.
Click to expand...
29 years old isn't old for a wide receiver. It's practically a prime year for him. And I am failed to be convinced of the context of other star WR's situations on other teams prior having anything to do with the Tampa Bucs of the here and now. That argument just doesn't hold water. Maybe the jury is out on whether or not Freeman is as good as some claim him to be. That's a valid doubt and certainly debatable. But using historical comparisons as a pertinent point of analysis is weak.
Click to expand...
I'm not certain the type of comparisons you're speaking of but I'm in general agreement with shutout and benson that historicaly WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team. Here are some recent examples:A. Bolin

2009 Cardinals 85/1029/5

2010 Ravens 64/837/7

B. Marshall

2009 Broncos 101/1120/10

2010 Dolphins 86/1014/3

S. Holmes

2009 Steelers 79/1248/5

2010 Jets 52/746/6

B. Lloyd

2010 Broncos 77/1448/11

2011 Rams 70/966/5

D. Branch

2005 NE 78/998/5

2006 SEA 53/725/4

TJ Housh, Sidney Rice, Roy Williams, Javon Walker, the list goes on.

With 20/20 hindsight the decline of each one of these WR's can easily be rationalized (bad QB play, run-first new team, injuries, etc.) but going in many of them were projected to play at the same level.

While there are many ways it can be explained that VJax may perform as good/better than his years at SD, he will be flying in the face of historical trends if he does.

 
I think it's pretty clear that VJax is a WR2 (9TD's 2011, gets you that), but the question is where at WR2? If you took him last year as WR1 or WR2 you were happy, and if you got him lower you did great. But this year can you afford to take him at WR12-WR17, I think not. To many good WR's with out all the changes, even WR18-WR24 is a stretch but has good upside. If he is around at that time, I take him. A leaper on a team that will play behind most of the time. I see a lot of 2nd and goal going to him, because last year that went to Gates, this year it has to go to VJax. But there is no way he falls to a WR3.

 
'johnadams said:
'Shutout said:
The removal of Winslow who has led the team in catches and end zone targets should improve the opportunity in both those areas.
Click to expand...
This is one of the more interesting developments. I'd be curious to see a split on VJax's production when Gates was healthy vs. Gates not playing. Seems to me that his excellent ypc had a lot to do with Gates taking safety coverage away. I'm not sure that he's really been a true #1 WR because of Gates. In a quick check, in VJax's most productive years, Gates has been relatively healthy. I really struggle with VJax. He seems to have everything you could want from a true #1 WR, but hasn't put together the type of season that I'd expect. I'm not sure if that's because he just isn't as good as I think he is or if it's because of the offense that he's been in. I don't think Freeman is in the same class as Rivers, but I definitely can see his targets increasing. I'm drafting him as a mid range WR2 (high WR2 in non-PPR) with legit WR1 upside though the uncertainty of him in a new situation (in many ways) tempers my enthusiasm.Ceiling: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 12 TD. Forecast: 75 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TDFloor: 60 catches, 900 yards, 6 TD
Click to expand...
As someone who watched nearly every game he played in SD I'm skeptical of him. I think the forecast is just about right but the odds of him doing much more than that are fairly low.
 
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'PhantomJB said:
'Raiderfan32904 said:
'Shutout said:
'benson_will_lead_the_way said:
They didn't have good QBs throwing to him...but Freeman also wasn't good last year either. Most of the time a 29 year old WR that switches teams in Free Agency usually doesn't come out and have a career year(I guess i'm in the minority in that theory though).
Click to expand...
Very true. Don't know about other people, but IMO, the difference this time (if it occurs) will be because of an atypical situation where opportunity actually aligns up better than what it normally does.
Click to expand...
29 years old isn't old for a wide receiver. It's practically a prime year for him. And I am failed to be convinced of the context of other star WR's situations on other teams prior having anything to do with the Tampa Bucs of the here and now. That argument just doesn't hold water. Maybe the jury is out on whether or not Freeman is as good as some claim him to be. That's a valid doubt and certainly debatable. But using historical comparisons as a pertinent point of analysis is weak.
Click to expand...
I'm not certain the type of comparisons you're speaking of but I'm in general agreement with shutout and benson that historicaly WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team. Here are some recent examples:A. Bolin

2009 Cardinals 85/1029/5

2010 Ravens 64/837/7

B. Marshall

2009 Broncos 101/1120/10

2010 Dolphins 86/1014/3

S. Holmes

2009 Steelers 79/1248/5

2010 Jets 52/746/6

B. Lloyd

2010 Broncos 77/1448/11

2011 Rams 70/966/5

D. Branch

2005 NE 78/998/5

2006 SEA 53/725/4

TJ Housh, Sidney Rice, Roy Williams, Javon Walker, the list goes on.

With 20/20 hindsight the decline of each one of these WR's can easily be rationalized (bad QB play, run-first new team, injuries, etc.) but going in many of them were projected to play at the same level.

While there are many ways it can be explained that VJax may perform as good/better than his years at SD, he will be flying in the face of historical trends if he does.
Click to expand...
First, VJax wasn't traded, he was a FA, but that is semantics. Here is another list of recent WRs who traded teams and how they fared with their old & new teams.R Moss

2006 OAK 42/533/3 (13 games)

2007 NE 98/1493/23 (16 games)

S Moss

2004 NYJ 45/838/5 (15 games)

2005 WAS 84/1483/9 (16 games)

W Welker

2006 MIA 67/687/1

2007 NE 112/1175/8

L Robinson

2010 STL 34/344/2 (14 games)

2011 DAL 54/858/11 (14 games)

T Owens

2003 SF 80/1102/9 (15 games)

2004 PHI 77/1200/14 (14 games)

T Owens

2005 PHI 47/763/6 (7 games)

2006 DAL 85/1180/13 (16 games)

P Burress

2004 PIT 35/698/5 (11 games)

2005 NYG 76/1214/7 (16 games)

 
'Bayhawks said:
First, VJax wasn't traded, he was a FA, but that is semantics. Here is another list of recent WRs who traded teams and how they fared with their old & new teams.R Moss2006 OAK 42/533/3 (13 games)2007 NE 98/1493/23 (16 games)S Moss2004 NYJ 45/838/5 (15 games)2005 WAS 84/1483/9 (16 games)W Welker2006 MIA 67/687/12007 NE 112/1175/8L Robinson2010 STL 34/344/2 (14 games)2011 DAL 54/858/11 (14 games)T Owens2003 SF 80/1102/9 (15 games)2004 PHI 77/1200/14 (14 games)T Owens2005 PHI 47/763/6 (7 games)2006 DAL 85/1180/13 (16 games)P Burress2004 PIT 35/698/5 (11 games)2005 NYG 76/1214/7 (16 games)
Click to expand...
Randy Moss, Owens and Burress all had better seasons than the post-trade years, not exactly the same as the career year VJax is expected to have. Welker went from one of the worst QB situations to one of the best. Robinson had a nice year but it was nothing like fantasy owners are hoping to get from VJax. Santana Moss is the most comparable and the best case scenario for him.
 
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'TheDirtyWord said:
I don’t want to give the impression that Vincent Jackson is ineffective. But aside from Desean Jackson, he simply is the streakiest WR in the NFL. And that was with a QB the caliber of Philip Rivers throwing him the ball.

Question: In his career, how many times has Vincent Jackson surpassed 6 receptions in a game (not including playoffs)? The answer is 6. For a player perceived as a #1 WR, that’s an extremely low figure. I get that VJax did not emerge as a big time player until about 4 seasons ago…but this simply tells me that when he goes big, he goes big by capitalizing on lower percentage plays.

Over the last 4 seasons, VJax has generated 39.38% of his yardage production on passes thrown 21+ yards and 39.29% of his TD production on such throws as well. This despite Rivers only accumulating 18.89% of his yardage and 26.9% of his TD production during the same time period on such throws

The fact of the matter is that VJax is downgrading, both in terms of 1) offense that can exploit his abilities and 2) personnel that can compliment his abilities. In San Diego, the primary target for Philip Rivers was Antonio Gates. VJax was able to benefit from the attention defenses paid to that part of their passing game. Mike Williams will not be able to offer this type of support. In fact, IMO, the value play in this passing game is Williams. Not to mention, Philip Rivers bad days are if not better than Josh Freeman’s good days, at least in the same neighborhood. Over the last 4 seasons, Rivers YPA has been 8.43. Freeman sports a career 6.77 figure.

The most indelible impression though I have with VJax was that it didn’t seem like SD’s passing game skipped a beat when he held out in 2010. Rivers was just as prolific as before and quite frankly, I don’t think it can be overlooked that SD really did not make much of an effort to replace VJax.

Right now, FFC has him as WR21. That seems about right.

Prediction: 58 receptions, 951 receiving yards, 6 TD’s.
Click to expand...
I do not disagree with this but it made me think: Why is that we can point out that chris Johnson is about the streakiest player going (can get you 7 points for two weeks, then 37 the next 2) and the majority continues to call him elite but VJAX can score 9 points one week and 42 the next and people are arguing if he is "good enough" to be a WR2?I really don't get that and, to be honest, the average of what most people are predicting here is 70/1100/7 and in my PPR, that's a top 10 WR; clearly not a WR2.

Regarding the number of targets he has had: I think we forget that he has played with a TE that has had about as long a sustained dominant run as there has been. Gates has been the 1st, 2nd and, if in doubt, recheck read for rivers for a while. I don't think that should get overlooked. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but if you play with a dominant, mismatch TE, the number of targets for VJAX is probably not out of whack. How many targets did Colston have last year playing with Graham? Or Welker with Brady? Im sure the numbers are LESS, but thinking that these are record-setting years.

 
How many veteran WRs have success in their first year after changing teams? Not many. I can think of Welker and Randy Moss in NE, but beyond that there aren't many. VJax doesn't strike me as someone who is bucking this trend. Especially when he goes from Rivers to Freeman. The only reason I would be remotely excited about him is due to the fact that Tampa's D is awful and he may have a few games where he racks up the stats because TB is way behind.

 
'Shutout said:
'TheDirtyWord said:
I don’t want to give the impression that Vincent Jackson is ineffective. But aside from Desean Jackson, he simply is the streakiest WR in the NFL. And that was with a QB the caliber of Philip Rivers throwing him the ball.

Question: In his career, how many times has Vincent Jackson surpassed 6 receptions in a game (not including playoffs)? The answer is 6. For a player perceived as a #1 WR, that’s an extremely low figure. I get that VJax did not emerge as a big time player until about 4 seasons ago…but this simply tells me that when he goes big, he goes big by capitalizing on lower percentage plays.

Over the last 4 seasons, VJax has generated 39.38% of his yardage production on passes thrown 21+ yards and 39.29% of his TD production on such throws as well. This despite Rivers only accumulating 18.89% of his yardage and 26.9% of his TD production during the same time period on such throws

The fact of the matter is that VJax is downgrading, both in terms of 1) offense that can exploit his abilities and 2) personnel that can compliment his abilities. In San Diego, the primary target for Philip Rivers was Antonio Gates. VJax was able to benefit from the attention defenses paid to that part of their passing game. Mike Williams will not be able to offer this type of support. In fact, IMO, the value play in this passing game is Williams. Not to mention, Philip Rivers bad days are if not better than Josh Freeman’s good days, at least in the same neighborhood. Over the last 4 seasons, Rivers YPA has been 8.43. Freeman sports a career 6.77 figure.

The most indelible impression though I have with VJax was that it didn’t seem like SD’s passing game skipped a beat when he held out in 2010. Rivers was just as prolific as before and quite frankly, I don’t think it can be overlooked that SD really did not make much of an effort to replace VJax.

Right now, FFC has him as WR21. That seems about right.

Prediction: 58 receptions, 951 receiving yards, 6 TD’s.
Click to expand...
I do not disagree with this but it made me think: Why is that we can point out that chris Johnson is about the streakiest player going (can get you 7 points for two weeks, then 37 the next 2) and the majority continues to call him elite but VJAX can score 9 points one week and 42 the next and people are arguing if he is "good enough" to be a WR2?I really don't get that and, to be honest, the average of what most people are predicting here is 70/1100/7 and in my PPR, that's a top 10 WR; clearly not a WR2.

Regarding the number of targets he has had: I think we forget that he has played with a TE that has had about as long a sustained dominant run as there has been. Gates has been the 1st, 2nd and, if in doubt, recheck read for rivers for a while. I don't think that should get overlooked. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but if you play with a dominant, mismatch TE, the number of targets for VJAX is probably not out of whack. How many targets did Colston have last year playing with Graham? Or Welker with Brady? Im sure the numbers are LESS, but thinking that these are record-setting years.
Click to expand...
There is no doubt CJ2K was streaky in 2011. It was his worst season in the NFL. In fact, for a good majority of it he stunk. But his M-O prior to that was that he was incredibly and consistently productive. Perhaps he's a bad example...I see what you are getting at. What I would say about VJax is that is inconsistency streak has been the most consistent thing about him for the duration of his career. It's become one of the things that defines who he is as a player. IMO, this has a large part to do with him being a big play specialist who improves your chances of completing long passes down the field, but struggles to have the same impact underneath which is where WR's develop consistent levels of production.As you can see, I am downgrading VJax in terms of production because I think the things he is a good at are not a good fit for them at the moment. If you look at 2011, Out of the Top 40 receivers (yardage), VJax finished 39th in terms of catch percentage on 115 targets (source: ESPN). Colston (107 - missed 3 games) & Welker (172) finished 1st & 3rd respectively. And they were more consistent...

The biggest mistake I make that I'm trying to rectify is to look past accumulated season totals to get to how a player generally accumulates his production. If he blows up for 5 games, but is invisible for the other 10-11...and has a historical trend of doing this, then I'm more sensitive to how/where I would draft such a player.

 
One of the reasons I would get so frustrated with Vjacks the past few years is because he would have a few 8-150-3 games then a bunch of 2-41 games. Watching the Chargers play it simply seemed to me those 2-41 games HE DIDN'T SEE THE TARGETS! Rivers would go to Gates/Floyd/whoever and not look in Vjacks direction (even when he would be WIDE open). I'm a firm believer that if you feed Vjacks the ball, you'll get the 8-150-3 type games and hopefully that new contract will motivate Freeman to do that.

It will completely rely on targets but I'm thinking a big year for Vjacks.

70 1100 9

 
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'cstu said:
'Bayhawks said:
First, VJax wasn't traded, he was a FA, but that is semantics. Here is another list of recent WRs who traded teams and how they fared with their old & new teams.R Moss2006 OAK 42/533/3 (13 games)2007 NE 98/1493/23 (16 games)S Moss2004 NYJ 45/838/5 (15 games)2005 WAS 84/1483/9 (16 games)W Welker2006 MIA 67/687/12007 NE 112/1175/8L Robinson2010 STL 34/344/2 (14 games)2011 DAL 54/858/11 (14 games)T Owens2003 SF 80/1102/9 (15 games)2004 PHI 77/1200/14 (14 games)T Owens2005 PHI 47/763/6 (7 games)2006 DAL 85/1180/13 (16 games)P Burress2004 PIT 35/698/5 (11 games)2005 NYG 76/1214/7 (16 games)
Click to expand...
Randy Moss, Owens and Burress all had better seasons than the post-trade years, not exactly the same as the career year VJax is expected to have. Welker went from one of the worst QB situations to one of the best. Robinson had a nice year but it was nothing like fantasy owners are hoping to get from VJax. Santana Moss is the most comparable and the best case scenario for him.
Click to expand...
1-Who expects VJax to have a career year? 1100/9 is his average over the last few years (discounting the 2010 season when he sat out most of the season), and would likely make him a top-10 WR.2-Moss NEVER had a better season this the year after his move to NE. Burress had two better seasons than the year after he moved to NYG, but he was still a WR1. Owens had better seasons, but he was still a top-5 WR the year he moved to PHI (and he missed 2 games, to boot). Welker drastically improved on his stats. Robinson drastically improved on his stats, S Moss drastically improved on his stats. My post was in response to this statement:"historicaly [sic] WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team." The players and stats I provided show that this is not always the case. It doesn't matter if those years were career years for Moss, Burress, Owens, et al; rather that a WR moving teams doesn't "generally see their production decline in Year 1."
 
'Bayhawks said:
My post was in response to this statement:

"historicaly [sic] WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team." The players and stats I provided show that this is not always the case. It doesn't matter if those years were career years for Moss, Burress, Owens, et al; rather that a WR moving teams doesn't "generally see their production decline in Year 1."
Click to expand...
Here is a link to a FF study of 156 wide receivers that changed teams during the period 1980 - 2006. It filters for injuries and only includes WR's who had 32 or more receptions the prior year to eliminate fringe players. The following conclusion supports my assertion that WR's moving teams "generally see their production decline in Year 1," since in the study only 19% showed a performance improvement.General Conclusions

After looking at the numbers, it appears that is best to stay away from any receiver who changes teams, even if they are a big-name player. Historical data indicates that you can expect a 20% reductions in receptions, yards, and touchdowns for receivers who change teams. Even using the most conservative measurement standard, there appears to be at least a 17% reduction for even the best wide receivers.

Outside of the amazing 2007 16-0 Patriots and Randy Moss, while there have been some wide receivers who have improved after changing teams (19% overall), only 9 of these players would be what we would consider quality players at the time they changed teams. Only 13 receivers who have changed teams since 2000 have shown improvement after changing teams.

http://www.4for4.com/content/wrs_on_new_teams.php

I'm not saying VJax can't be like Moss, Burress and Welker and buck the trend but that would indeed be in the historical minority.

 
Jackson is one of the biggest "high ceiling, low floor" projections this year. He has also been very feast or famine week to week. I hope he finds consistency in TB. Certainly a little bit of a gamble pick but where he has been going in mock drafts it might be worth the gamble. Ill say 70/1200/10

 
'Bayhawks said:
'cstu said:
'Bayhawks said:
First, VJax wasn't traded, he was a FA, but that is semantics. Here is another list of recent WRs who traded teams and how they fared with their old & new teams.

R Moss

2006 OAK 42/533/3 (13 games)

2007 NE 98/1493/23 (16 games)

S Moss

2004 NYJ 45/838/5 (15 games)

2005 WAS 84/1483/9 (16 games)

W Welker

2006 MIA 67/687/1

2007 NE 112/1175/8

L Robinson

2010 STL 34/344/2 (14 games)

2011 DAL 54/858/11 (14 games)

T Owens

2003 SF 80/1102/9 (15 games)

2004 PHI 77/1200/14 (14 games)

T Owens

2005 PHI 47/763/6 (7 games)

2006 DAL 85/1180/13 (16 games)

P Burress

2004 PIT 35/698/5 (11 games)

2005 NYG 76/1214/7 (16 games)
Click to expand...
Randy Moss, Owens and Burress all had better seasons than the post-trade years, not exactly the same as the career year VJax is expected to have. Welker went from one of the worst QB situations to one of the best. Robinson had a nice year but it was nothing like fantasy owners are hoping to get from VJax. Santana Moss is the most comparable and the best case scenario for him.
Click to expand...
1-Who expects VJax to have a career year? 1100/9 is his average over the last few years (discounting the 2010 season when he sat out most of the season), and would likely make him a top-10 WR.2-Moss NEVER had a better season this the year after his move to NE. Burress had two better seasons than the year after he moved to NYG, but he was still a WR1. Owens had better seasons, but he was still a top-5 WR the year he moved to PHI (and he missed 2 games, to boot). Welker drastically improved on his stats. Robinson drastically improved on his stats, S Moss drastically improved on his stats. My post was in response to this statement:

"historicaly [sic] WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team." The players and stats I provided show that this is not always the case. It doesn't matter if those years were career years for Moss, Burress, Owens, et al; rather that a WR moving teams doesn't "generally see their production decline in Year 1."
Click to expand...
Are you comparing Josh Freeman to Tom Brady (Moss), McNabb in his prime (Owens), or Eli Manning (Burress)?Look, it IS possible for a WR changing teams to improve his production. But if he isn't truly elite, then there is a legitimate concern. And if he is going from a better QB (Rivers) to a WORSE QB (Freeman), then there is more than legitimate concern. There is a likelihood that he will take a step back. If Jackson does AS WELL as he has in SD, owners will be fortunate. Because the list of good but not great WRs who changed teams and then regressed is MUCH longer than this selective list.

 
'az_prof said:
'Bayhawks said:
'cstu said:
'Bayhawks said:
First, VJax wasn't traded, he was a FA, but that is semantics. Here is another list of recent WRs who traded teams and how they fared with their old & new teams.

R Moss

2006 OAK 42/533/3 (13 games)

2007 NE 98/1493/23 (16 games)

S Moss

2004 NYJ 45/838/5 (15 games)

2005 WAS 84/1483/9 (16 games)

W Welker

2006 MIA 67/687/1

2007 NE 112/1175/8

L Robinson

2010 STL 34/344/2 (14 games)

2011 DAL 54/858/11 (14 games)

T Owens

2003 SF 80/1102/9 (15 games)

2004 PHI 77/1200/14 (14 games)

T Owens

2005 PHI 47/763/6 (7 games)

2006 DAL 85/1180/13 (16 games)

P Burress

2004 PIT 35/698/5 (11 games)

2005 NYG 76/1214/7 (16 games)
Click to expand...
Randy Moss, Owens and Burress all had better seasons than the post-trade years, not exactly the same as the career year VJax is expected to have. Welker went from one of the worst QB situations to one of the best. Robinson had a nice year but it was nothing like fantasy owners are hoping to get from VJax. Santana Moss is the most comparable and the best case scenario for him.
Click to expand...
1-Who expects VJax to have a career year? 1100/9 is his average over the last few years (discounting the 2010 season when he sat out most of the season), and would likely make him a top-10 WR.2-Moss NEVER had a better season this the year after his move to NE. Burress had two better seasons than the year after he moved to NYG, but he was still a WR1. Owens had better seasons, but he was still a top-5 WR the year he moved to PHI (and he missed 2 games, to boot). Welker drastically improved on his stats. Robinson drastically improved on his stats, S Moss drastically improved on his stats. My post was in response to this statement:

"historicaly [sic] WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team." The players and stats I provided show that this is not always the case. It doesn't matter if those years were career years for Moss, Burress, Owens, et al; rather that a WR moving teams doesn't "generally see their production decline in Year 1."
Click to expand...
Are you comparing Josh Freeman to Tom Brady (Moss), McNabb in his prime (Owens), or Eli Manning (Burress)?
Click to expand...
Here are the stats of each of those QBs in the year before they got those WRs. Seems to me that Freeman is comparable to Brady (pre-Moss), McNabb (pre-TO), and Eli (pre-Burress).319 com, 516 att, 3529 yards, 6.8 YPA, 24 TD, 12 INT

275 com, 478 att, 3216 yards, 6.7 YPA, 16 TD, 11 INT

95 com, 197 att, 1043 yards, 5.3 YPA, 6 TD, 9 INT (9 games)

346 com, 551 att, 3592 yards, 6.5 YPA, 16 TD, 22 INT

'az_prof said:
Look, it IS possible for a WR changing teams to improve his production.
Click to expand...
I'll ask again, who is talking about VJAX improving his performance? 1100/9 is his average over the last few years. That's not an improvement. I expect him to see more targets, so TECHNICALLY, I expect his performance to decrease, but his end of year numbers (yards/TDs) will be around his past averages.
 
'PhantomJB said:
'Bayhawks said:
My post was in response to this statement:

"historicaly [sic] WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team." The players and stats I provided show that this is not always the case. It doesn't matter if those years were career years for Moss, Burress, Owens, et al; rather that a WR moving teams doesn't "generally see their production decline in Year 1."
Click to expand...
Here is a link to a FF study of 156 wide receivers that changed teams during the period 1980 - 2006. It filters for injuries and only includes WR's who had 32 or more receptions the prior year to eliminate fringe players. The following conclusion supports my assertion that WR's moving teams "generally see their production decline in Year 1," since in the study only 19% showed a performance improvement.General Conclusions

After looking at the numbers, it appears that is best to stay away from any receiver who changes teams, even if they are a big-name player. Historical data indicates that you can expect a 20% reductions in receptions, yards, and touchdowns for receivers who change teams. Even using the most conservative measurement standard, there appears to be at least a 17% reduction for even the best wide receivers.

Outside of the amazing 2007 16-0 Patriots and Randy Moss, while there have been some wide receivers who have improved after changing teams (19% overall), only 9 of these players would be what we would consider quality players at the time they changed teams. Only 13 receivers who have changed teams since 2000 have shown improvement after changing teams.

http://www.4for4.com/content/wrs_on_new_teams.php

I'm not saying VJax can't be like Moss, Burress and Welker and buck the trend but that would indeed be in the historical minority.
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IMO, a better study would concentrate on guys who have met certain criteria (1000 yards, 8 TDs, 80 catches, etc) in a season (preferably more than 1) who have changed teams and then look at their results on a new team. Taking mediocre players (I believe the study used something like 30 catches, 700 yards, 5 TDs) and comparing them to players who are elite isn't a good comparison.When a good player changes teams in his prime, I'd be willing to bet that this production is better than when a WR3 type player changes teams.

 
'Bayhawks said:
'cstu said:
'Bayhawks said:
First, VJax wasn't traded, he was a FA, but that is semantics. Here is another list of recent WRs who traded teams and how they fared with their old & new teams.R Moss2006 OAK 42/533/3 (13 games)2007 NE 98/1493/23 (16 games)S Moss2004 NYJ 45/838/5 (15 games)2005 WAS 84/1483/9 (16 games)W Welker2006 MIA 67/687/12007 NE 112/1175/8L Robinson2010 STL 34/344/2 (14 games)2011 DAL 54/858/11 (14 games)T Owens2003 SF 80/1102/9 (15 games)2004 PHI 77/1200/14 (14 games)T Owens2005 PHI 47/763/6 (7 games)2006 DAL 85/1180/13 (16 games)P Burress2004 PIT 35/698/5 (11 games)2005 NYG 76/1214/7 (16 games)
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Randy Moss, Owens and Burress all had better seasons than the post-trade years, not exactly the same as the career year VJax is expected to have. Welker went from one of the worst QB situations to one of the best. Robinson had a nice year but it was nothing like fantasy owners are hoping to get from VJax. Santana Moss is the most comparable and the best case scenario for him.
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1-Who expects VJax to have a career year? 1100/9 is his average over the last few years (discounting the 2010 season when he sat out most of the season), and would likely make him a top-10 WR.2-Moss NEVER had a better season this the year after his move to NE. Burress had two better seasons than the year after he moved to NYG, but he was still a WR1. Owens had better seasons, but he was still a top-5 WR the year he moved to PHI (and he missed 2 games, to boot). Welker drastically improved on his stats. Robinson drastically improved on his stats, S Moss drastically improved on his stats. My post was in response to this statement:"historicaly [sic] WR's traded in their prime generally see their production decline in Year 1 with the new team." The players and stats I provided show that this is not always the case. It doesn't matter if those years were career years for Moss, Burress, Owens, et al; rather that a WR moving teams doesn't "generally see their production decline in Year 1."
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1 - Almost everyone in this thread expects he'll do at least as good as his best season (68/1167/9). 2 - I stand corrected on Moss, however like Welker he had Brady.
 
Last year V Jax hit his career high in targets - 115. That was the same as Michael Crabtree on a team that never really threw the ball. Greg Little had more targets as a rookie in Cleveland, think about that!

I'm going to set his floor in targets at 127 (the number that Mike Williams got as a rookie in Tampa), but more than likely he'll be around 135-140 due to that huge contract he just signed, which TB would love to justify. That would have put him squarely at #8 in targets for a WR last year.

From there - his last 4 seasons V Jax has had a completion rate of 52, 58, 64, and 58 - with a total average of 58%. At a 55% completion ratio, and 135 targets, that's 74 completions. Even his low of 52% completion with the floor of 127 targets would be 66, two off his career best. At his career average of 58% completion and 140 targets which I feel is obtainable for him, that's 81 completions.

So we're looking at 66-81 receptions for him, but I feel that 74 is a pretty good place to set.

Then his YPC the last 4 years have been 18, 18, 17, and 19 (pretty damn consistent). Even if it gets lowered to 15 in a more conservative offense, we're looking at 1,100+ receiving yards with the 74 receptions. He'd be right at 1,000 at his "floor" of 66 receptions.

As for TDs, if Freeman returns to his 2010 25 TD self, I'd have to think that V Jax will get close to 40% of them - 10. I set it at 40% as I think that's a safe place for true #1 WRs on their team - Calvin had exactly 40% of Stafford's TDs, Fitz had 38% of Ari's passing TDs, Wallace had 38% of Big Ben's, Green had 35% of Dalton's, and Steve Smith and Marshall were right there as well. Even getting only a third of those would give V Jax slightly over 8.

All in I'm going 135 targets, 74 receptions for 1,100 yards and 9 TDs. Pretty much what Nicks did last year with a slight bump in TDs due to less competition for them.

 
'meyerj31 said:
In my recent dynasty start-up he was available as the WR28.I laughed, and took him.
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Dynasty is a different animal altogether. I thought we were just looking at this year in this thread.I think he's got 2 more solid low end #1 WR type years left...after that who knows.
 
Also, V Jax does get to trade 6 games against the pass defenses of the AFC West (Flowers/Carr, Bailey, Routt/Branch) for 6 games against the AFC South (ranked #20, #24, and #30 vs the pass last year - aside from Dunta Robinson.....)

Just a thought.

 
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