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Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Victor Cruz Player Page

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I just don't see a repeat of last years huge numbers. A very talented player, big play ability but not big player on a team

that could very well and should have a better offense than last year (expect some more line consistency, and a better running game without Jacobs and with Wilson), plus Randle should be a nice third option. I'd think Randle could if anything take a couple redzone tds away.

Potent offense, talented playmaker but I'm thinking TDs might suffer and kill a long one, maybe two to hurt the average.

83, 1180, 6

 
I doubt Randle eats into much of Cruz's production. Manningham got 500 yds last year and that's probably around where Randle will be capped at his rookie season. Manning will throw for 4000+ so there will be opportunities for everyone.

Obviously Cruz won't get 1500+ yds again he's a great piece in the offensive puzzle for the Giants and he won't vanish.

85 catches 1280 yds, 9 TDs

 
Despite not starting the 1st two games, Cruz still put up over 1500 yards last year. He averaged over 9 targets per game, with he and Nicks combining for 149 targets over the last 8 games. He was remarkably consistent throughout the year, logging seven 100 yard games and another three over 90. This year shouldn't be any different. They have lost one of the more productive #3 WRs. Randle, in his first year, isn't likely to match Manningham's production. They have lost two TEs to knee injuries. A questionably healthy Bradshaw, no Jacobs, and a rookie (Wilson) isn't necessarily a recipe for an improved running game. Manning may have to rely on his top two receivers even more than last year. I can see nearly 150 targets each.

150 targets, 90 receptions, 1500 yards, 8 TDs.

 
Cruz is a major star on the rise. Having Nicks on the other side only helps Cruz and his potential production. He is a crisp route runner, has very good vertical speed and will make the tough catches across the middle of the field. He is now Eli's security blanket and a major force on this offense.

87 receptions 1375 yards 10 TD's

 
I think people are getting a bit carried away with Cruz. Between 2008 and 2010 there was 2 WR seasons over 1500 yds both by Andre Johnson. Last year 3 WR cracked it I believe CJ, Welker and Cruz. To think that he repeats another 1500 yd season seems unrealistic. Especially when I believe 5 of his TD's were 65+ yds on short passes that ended up long TD's for about 400 yds of his production alone. Way too many fluky items for me. That being said I think he will still be very good.

I am in the 80 rec 1100 yd and 7 TD camp.

 
I think people are getting a bit carried away with Cruz. Between 2008 and 2010 there was 2 WR seasons over 1500 yds both by Andre Johnson. Last year 3 WR cracked it I believe CJ, Welker and Cruz. To think that he repeats another 1500 yd season seems unrealistic. Especially when I believe 5 of his TD's were 65+ yds on short passes that ended up long TD's for about 400 yds of his production alone. Way too many fluky items for me. That being said I think he will still be very good.I am in the 80 rec 1100 yd and 7 TD camp.
I only see one person so far saying he will hit 1500 - the majority are saying 1100-1200 ranges, so I don't know that people are really getting carried away. And I'm a bit sick of hearing how fluky Cruz's TDs were. He has amazing open field moves that result in huge gains. What you call fluky I call big play ability.
 
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I think it was a perfect storm situation last year where the Giants threw much more than they wanted to and it seemed that once they got into the playoffs, Nicks really re-emerged once he was healthy.

I could see it continuing the way it went last year, but I think it is much more likely that the team is able to run more this year and that the offense is overall more balanced. If that is the case, its hard to see him with much more than 1100 yards at best. Even back in the day when the Colts where seemingly throwing it every down and they had Marvin and reggie, there was a five year span where, as one was ascending and the other descending (but both still very good), where the #2 guy typically hovered around the 1100-1180 mark in yards. It just comes down to math. If you throw for 4000 yards (a big number):

4000-

450 (backs)-

800 (TEs)-

1300 (Nicks)-

300 (everyone else...and that's a puny number)

=1150 for Cruz.

Someone will be quick to say 4000 isnt that much and Eli threw for 4900 last year. True, but the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.

 
To each his own. 5+ TD's of 65+ yds is fluky even if you have amazing open field moves.

according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Cruz’s five TD catches of at least 65 yards are the second most in NFL history behind Crazy Legs Hirsch’s six in 1951

 
To each his own. 5+ TD's of 65+ yds is fluky even if you have amazing open field moves. according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Cruz’s five TD catches of at least 65 yards are the second most in NFL history behind Crazy Legs Hirsch’s six in 1951
While a bit flukey, it still points to his potential to have huge games, especially in a league that provides bonuses for distance scoring. Based on what you said, five seems high, but I suspect that we'll see more of these types of plays across the NFL as WRs find the middle of the field not nearly as life threatening as it once was with the emphasis on preventing concussions (and the rule changes that comes with it). I'm bullish on Cruz and think he's an incredible value right now. Ceiling: 100 catches, 1400 yds, 12 TDs.Forecast: 90 catches, 1300 yds, 10 TDs.Floor: 70 catches, 1000 yds, 7 TDs.
 
To each his own. 5+ TD's of 65+ yds is fluky even if you have amazing open field moves. according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Cruz’s five TD catches of at least 65 yards are the second most in NFL history behind Crazy Legs Hirsch’s six in 1951
While a bit flukey, it still points to his potential to have huge games, especially in a league that provides bonuses for distance scoring. Based on what you said, five seems high, but I suspect that we'll see more of these types of plays across the NFL as WRs find the middle of the field not nearly as life threatening as it once was with the emphasis on preventing concussions (and the rule changes that comes with it). I'm bullish on Cruz and think he's an incredible value right now. Ceiling: 100 catches, 1400 yds, 12 TDs.Forecast: 90 catches, 1300 yds, 10 TDs.Floor: 70 catches, 1000 yds, 7 TDs.
Makes me nervous when I see people saying the worst a guy is going to do is a 1000 yard season and 4-5 catches a game. Screams unrealistic to me.couple that with stats that show that his level of production has only been done once in 50 years and it sounds much more like people are buying him on his outlier value, not his true value.
 
the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.
How do you know this? I'd ask you for a link but on second thought every team says they want more balance in the offseason. In reality, the Giants have committed 100% to Eli as their best player and have no problem with him slinging it while running just enough to keep defenses honest. That could be as little as 35-40% called run plays.

 
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the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.
How do you know this? I'd ask you for a link but on second thought every team says they want more balance in the offseason. In reality, the Giants have committed 100% to Eli as their best player and have no problem with him slinging it while running just enough to keep defenses honest. That could be as little as 35-40% called run plays.
No chance it will be close to a 2:1 ratio. The giants want to run more effectively. They need it to set up the pass, get key first down gains and third down conversions and grind out games in the 4th when ahead. Going to be no less than 45% running IMO, likely a couple nothes higher.

 
Someone will be quick to say 4000 isnt that much and Eli threw for 4900 last year. True, but the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.
Do you think that QBs will regress to their more "normal" stats in past years? Prior to last year, 5000 yards had only been topped twice in the history of the NFL. Last year, there were 3 (and almost 5) QBs that topped 5000. Brees was almost 5500. Using past years' passing stats may not be the best indicator for the future. Unless something in the NFL changes, Eli will likely be much closer to 5000 than 4000.
 
I don't see him averaging over 18 YPC again and I don't see him topping 80 catches. '11 smacks of "career year and a half."

65-75 catches, 975-1000ish yards. 5-7 TDs.

 
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I don't see him averaging over 18 YPC again and I don't see him topping 80 catches. '11 smacks of "career year and a half."65-75 catches, 975-1000ish yards. 5-7 TDs.
I originally was thinking along these lines of a big regression to the mean type year, but the guy does have skills. He's got a very good / great QB. He is not the best WR on the team, so won't get too much double coverage. The #3 WR in Randle will also pull some coverage and Bennett at TE could help too.This is a past first team, even if they might want to run a bit more. So while I expect less than 18 YPC, I couldnt see him getting less than 75-80 catches (heck, he will have two more games starting). His natural skill set, playmaking abilities and an overall improved offense creates a fairly high floor this year, even though he will regress some.
 
'Shutout said:
'johnadams said:
'JH56 said:
To each his own. 5+ TD's of 65+ yds is fluky even if you have amazing open field moves. according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Cruz’s five TD catches of at least 65 yards are the second most in NFL history behind Crazy Legs Hirsch’s six in 1951
While a bit flukey, it still points to his potential to have huge games, especially in a league that provides bonuses for distance scoring. Based on what you said, five seems high, but I suspect that we'll see more of these types of plays across the NFL as WRs find the middle of the field not nearly as life threatening as it once was with the emphasis on preventing concussions (and the rule changes that comes with it). I'm bullish on Cruz and think he's an incredible value right now. Ceiling: 100 catches, 1400 yds, 12 TDs.Forecast: 90 catches, 1300 yds, 10 TDs.Floor: 70 catches, 1000 yds, 7 TDs.
Makes me nervous when I see people saying the worst a guy is going to do is a 1000 yard season and 4-5 catches a game. Screams unrealistic to me.couple that with stats that show that his level of production has only been done once in 50 years and it sounds much more like people are buying him on his outlier value, not his true value.
I see a WR who dominates as Cruz did in his second year (although it's really season 1.5 for him) in a fairly prolific passing attack and I think a reasonable floor is 1000 yards. To take into consideration, only three players have posted more receiving yards in their second year, Holt, Bruce, and Rice. In a check of the 22 other instances of 1500+ receiving yards in the 16 game era (excluding Welker and Johnson in 2011), I see four instances where a player did not get to at least 1000 yards their following season, two of which were above 950 yards. The other two include Randy Moss's last season in Minny and Rob Green in 1985. As to the point of Cruz notching a high number of 65+ TDs, Holt had three 70+ TDs in his second season, which was over 1600 yards, a scoring distance he never repeated even once in 7 subsequent 1000+ yard seasons. I just don't think someone who emerges as that type of talent with that little experience just disappears. Cruz is still on the learning curve of the position. I would be shocked if he doesn't get at least 1000 yards.
 
I doubt Randle eats into much of Cruz's production. Manningham got 500 yds last year and that's probably around where Randle will be capped at his rookie season. Manning will throw for 4000+ so there will be opportunities for everyone. Obviously Cruz won't get 1500+ yds again he's a great piece in the offensive puzzle for the Giants and he won't vanish. 85 catches 1280 yds, 9 TDs
This sounds about right to me. It could fall as low as 75 and 1100 and 7Tds or as high as this (wouldn't surprise me).I'll go in between. I do like him but I think most of us agree that he will decline to the norm a bit. The question is HOW FAR?Here is mine:80 1150 8 TDsI think the team will try to run more and be more successful.
 
I'm sure the Giants will try to have a more balanced offense and the addition of David Wilson will help aid that. Its possible Cruz gets more attention and Nicks is freed up this year. Ill say 80 catches, 1300 yards, 10 salsa dances

 
'Hoosier16 said:
'Shutout said:
Someone will be quick to say 4000 isnt that much and Eli threw for 4900 last year. True, but the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.
Do you think that QBs will regress to their more "normal" stats in past years? Prior to last year, 5000 yards had only been topped twice in the history of the NFL. Last year, there were 3 (and almost 5) QBs that topped 5000. Brees was almost 5500. Using past years' passing stats may not be the best indicator for the future. Unless something in the NFL changes, Eli will likely be much closer to 5000 than 4000.
:goodposting: Some people need to realize this is not yesterday's NFL. We witnessed it last year. The NFL has been making adjustments over the last few years to limit defense and aid the passing game, and those adjustments have changed the game.

 
With the help offenses are getting with the rules, I doubt Bree's record stands as long as Marino's did. I wouldn't be shocked if it gets broken this season.

 
I think Cruz is overvalued for 2012. He had a career year as well as Eli. Nicks is still the most talented WR on the team (and a TD machine), and I can see NYG being a little more balanced this year. Much of his stats were padded by big plays, and relying on big plays too much can be a big risk....I want to see another year of him making those kind of plays before I project it to be the norm.

That said, Cruz has talent, he's still a solid WR2 option, but his ADP is a little too high for my taste.

80 rec, 1075 yds, 7 TD

 
Victor Cruz's football skill is supremely underrated. He vacuums up any ball around him a la Larry Fitzgerald. If he were 3 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier he'd be right there in the conversation as best WR in the league.

Nicks may be more talented than Cruz but I'm not convinced that Cruz isn't the better overall football player, and I don't see Eli focusing on one so much that the other is ignored.

His absurd YPC isn't sustainable but I see no reason that his other numbers aren't, or even that they can't improve. I think he's actually being drafted late this year, for what he is.

88 rec, 1300yds, 10 TDs

 
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I love his talent. I'm a bit worried about off field distractions.

Does anyone know what kind of history there is for undrafted WRs having a career year and then continuing it for a few more seasons?

 
I love his talent. I'm a bit worried about off field distractions.Does anyone know what kind of history there is for undrafted WRs having a career year and then continuing it for a few more seasons?
Wasn't Colston a 7th rounder? That's close enough to undrafted. Not saying they play the same but I don't think draft position matters as much as personal maturity.
 
the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.
How do you know this? I'd ask you for a link but on second thought every team says they want more balance in the offseason. In reality, the Giants have committed 100% to Eli as their best player and have no problem with him slinging it while running just enough to keep defenses honest. That could be as little as 35-40% called run plays.
The Giants were 5th in passing yards per game and 32nd in rushing yards per game. Of course they want to be more balanced than that, and taking a RB in the first round of the draft proves that.
 
the Giants really DO want to be more balanced and the 4900 Eli threw last year was almost 1,000 more yards than he has ever thrown. He hit 4,000 the two years before that, and prior to that was always closer to 3300 or so.
How do you know this? I'd ask you for a link but on second thought every team says they want more balance in the offseason. In reality, the Giants have committed 100% to Eli as their best player and have no problem with him slinging it while running just enough to keep defenses honest. That could be as little as 35-40% called run plays.
No chance it will be close to a 2:1 ratio. The giants want to run more effectively. They need it to set up the pass, get key first down gains and third down conversions and grind out games in the 4th when ahead. Going to be no less than 45% running IMO, likely a couple nothes higher.
Having the 32nd ranked rushing attack last season, and drafting a round 1 RB says to me they want a more effective rushing attack. Getting to around 20th in rushing would be a realistic expectation. I don't see them not airing it out and grinding the ball. The Giants have been terrible at short yardage the past few years. There schedule is said to be even tougher than the beast they had last year and Eli is elite. I expect a lot of shootouts again this season. I don't think they'll have enough confidence in the running game to grind it out, and Bradshaw can't hold up to that style. I think if they have a lead in the 4th, they'll go with a conservative passing attack and rely on the defensive line to get after the QB.
 
I love his talent. I'm a bit worried about off field distractions.
Anything specific or just random worrying? Didn't he turn down 'Dancing with the Stars' citing that he didn't want any distractions?
More just random worrying. ;) The fact that he isn't making a major issue about having a league minimum contract so far is a good thing, but how long will that last? Then you have him going from obscurity to the big time overnight. On the surface it appears he's handled everything so far, but it is something. I think he'll be fine and continue to steamroll.
 
Fast, quick, mature, deadly in the open field, fantastic route runner and he has the eye of a very underrated QB who should throw for 4500 in his sleep.

The Nicks injury worries me a bit as it would make Cruz the de facto WR1 and we don't know how he'd fair in a prolonged WR1 role, but I still love his game. He is practically uncoverable.

Slight regression in YPR as 18+ is not sustainable IMO. But more of the same. He'll also get to play a full schedule this year (wasn't a starter 1st two games of last year).

85 catches

14.9 YPR

1267 yards

8 TDs

 
Nicks' injury is a concern. If he doesn't come back healthy then defenses can focus on Cruz the way New England did in the 2nd half of the Superbowl.

 
Nicks' injury is a concern. If he doesn't come back healthy then defenses can focus on Cruz the way New England did in the 2nd half of the Superbowl.
I agree it's a risk, but I also think Cruz' targets (which I expected to moderate this year) are now much safer to stay at an elite level. We don't know if Cruz is good enough to handle opposing team's top defensive backs and/or consistent double teams, but we don't know that he's not either. For me it's going to come down to ADP, and unfortunately the injury to Nicks will likely drive Cruz up another round or two. If that occurs I'll probably pass.
 
One thing noone has mentioned about Cruz is that he actually produced his monstrous production in 14, not 16 games. Fact is, he didn't emerge until Week 3 and up until then, had only 2 reception for 17 yards.

Now I don't disagree that there was a level of spectacular that accompanied his production that would seem awfully difficult to repreat, at least to the level at which Cruz produced at. But there is no denying his playmaking ability. Will he produce 5 TD's of 68 yards+...? That would be a difficult feat to repeat. But I would not expect that number to go down to zero. And Cruz wasn't only effective in terms of being a deep threat. His YAC numbers were off the charts (3rd among WR's).

But he's got just the one season of production here to go by...and even until mid-season, you kept on hearing how he infuriated the coaching staff in that he'd equal a good play with a bad play. That died down as the season went on and Cruz simply blew the doors off MetLife Stadium. But I bring that up because there precious little track record here and to be frank, why would I simply not pass on him in Round 3 and take less risk with a guy like Antonio Brown who appears to have a similar skillset who'd be available close to 3 rounds later?

I'm not saying Cruz isn't worth it, but if you go back to the statement of Cruz producing 5 TD's of 68+ yards...that leaves him with but 4 TD's of less than that amount. So that would be an area of concern for me that I'd struggle to get past. Fact is assuming Nicks come back healthy, in the red zone...is Cruz even Option #2? Might this be where a big target like Rueben Randle begins to have an impact?

I admit - it's tough to argue that Cruz doesn't deserve or justify his current ADP of late 3rd round (WR9). But like a lot of players who come out of nowhere to surprise...the NFL will have had a chance during the off-season to catch-up to Cruz. They won't completely be able to neuter him, but I suspect Cruz will have to go through an adjustment period of his own and while he should still be productive, I think his major upside has been spent in 2011 and he'll not be able to separate from the pack of borderline WR1/WR2 in 2012.

Prediction: 68 Receptions, 1033 Receiving Yards, 6 TD's; 5 Rushes 37 Rushing Yards.

 
Does anyone know what kind of history there is for undrafted WRs having a career year and then continuing it for a few more seasons?
Undrafted WR, had his "breakout" year in season 3, continued for over 1,000 yards for 6 of the next 7 years.Can anyone guess who this is without peeking? :)

Here you go

 
Does anyone know what kind of history there is for undrafted WRs having a career year and then continuing it for a few more seasons?
Undrafted WR, had his "breakout" year in season 3, continued for over 1,000 yards for 6 of the next 7 years.Can anyone guess who this is without peeking? :)

Here you go
Rod Smith?
Yep, should be the first answer to the question of "Best undrafted WR" pretty much 100% of the time. We shall see if Cruz can contend for that title with another 7 or 8 GREAT seasons. After all, Rod has a 1600 yard season under his belt, so he laughs at Cruz and his measly 1500 :) .
 
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Does anyone know what kind of history there is for undrafted WRs having a career year and then continuing it for a few more seasons?
Undrafted WR, had his "breakout" year in season 3, continued for over 1,000 yards for 6 of the next 7 years.Can anyone guess who this is without peeking? :)

Here you go
Rod Smith?
Yep, should be the first answer to the question of "Best undrafted WR" pretty much 100% of the time. We shall see if Cruz can contend for that title with another 7 or 8 GREAT seasons. After all, Rod has a 1600 yard season under his belt, so he laughs at Cruz and his measly 1500 :) .
I remember reading that Rod Smith reminded himself every day that he could get cut or something to that affect as motivation.
 
If I remember correctly he had only one touchdown inside the 10 last year, I think he declines some but still a top 15 wide receiver. 85 for 1300 and 6 touchdowns

 
I'm expecting a DeSean Jackson-esque regression to the mean ;)

But seriously, I agree that you can't just take out long plays but you can't ignore that they are as flukey as TD production and when the long plays lead to TDs then you are dealing with a double edged sword. At an ADP of WR12, I'll be passing on him. He will not catch any defenses by surprise this year. I actually think his emergence makes Nicks an even safer play.

130 targets 75 rec 15 ypr 1125 yds 6 TD

 
To each his own. 5+ TD's of 65+ yds is fluky even if you have amazing open field moves. according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Cruz’s five TD catches of at least 65 yards are the second most in NFL history behind Crazy Legs Hirsch’s six in 1951
One of the great things about having the Red Zone channel, I got to witness all of these. Cruz left me slack-jawed in amazement most of the year.Fluky over not, I want players on my team that have this sort of ability. Makes the hobby much more exciting.
 
I can't even come up with description of this story that does it justice. Just read it, okay?

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Victor Cruz hopes that meeting with the family of a 6-year-old boy killed in the Connecticut school shootings has helped it cope with the tragedy.

The New York Giants receiver on Wednesday somberly recounted his hourlong visit with Jack Pinto's family a day earlier, and says he was most affected when asked about the parents' decision to bury their son in his No. 80 jersey.

Cruz stopped for a moment, his eyes becoming watery: "You never go through some circumstances like this. This was definitely the toughest by far."

Pinto's family said Cruz was their son's favorite player. Pinto was one of 20 first-graders who, along with six adults, were killed Friday in the shootings at the Sandy Hook Elementary School.

Cruz wrote Jack Pinto's name on his cleats and gloves before the Giants' 34-0 loss to the Falcons. He presented them to the family Tuesday.

"Incredibly proud of what (Cruz has) done," Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. "That family will remember that all their days. Hopefully, at least some of their grief may temporarily be spent in being able to embrace Victor Cruz.

"The fact that he went and did that speaks volumes about what he has in him, inside."

Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice, who will play against the Giants on Sunday, also was impressed by Cruz's gesture.

"You've got to be able to put yourself in that family's situation to understand at least what they're going through," Rice said. "That's what it's about. You know, that's something that ... you do it from the heart. You do it from within. What he did was amazing because, honestly, I was affected by that more than I've ever been affected before.

"We play this game of football and we want to be able to please everybody. We talk about winning and losing, but the real losers on that end was the families of Newtown. They've got to wake up every day in a situation where ... and have no answers to unsolved problems that no one can even imagine that it happened."

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8762755/victor-cruz-new-york-giants-wide-receiver-recounts-meeting-family-jack-pinto-shooting-victim-newton-conn

http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_/id/8753444/victor-cruz-new-york-giants-play-heavy-hearts-atlanta-falcons
 

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