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Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Cam Newton Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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Some people are big believers in taking portions of a season and pro-rating statistical production over 16 games to make a point. Some are not. I fall more into the former category when I can take a sizable consistent stretch that also generally leads to the completion of a season.

Cam Newton took the NFL by storm. Pre-season games were dissected and in some cases torn apart. I remember a pre-season 30+ yard completion being debunked because the commentator remarked that the play should have been a touchdown, but the throw was behind the receiver. Make no mistake, most in the know people thought the NFL was going to teach Cam Newton a rough lesson. This did not occur.

With that said, the Panthers usage of Newton during the first 4 games of the season versus that last 12 bears some scrutiny.

During the first 4 games, Newton attempted an average of 40.8 passes/game. Over the next 12, this average fell to 29.5, a close to 27% reduction. In addition, his YPA came down from 8.5 to 7.5. No doubt these are respectable numbers that dont even take into account his impact in the running game and inside the 5 where he essentially is already the best goal line runner in the NFL.

But are we expecting his passing numbers (4051 Passing Yards, 21 TDs, 7.8 YPA) to improve just because hes in Year 2? This has not been the case for Matt Ryan or Sam Bradford…two QBs who unexpectedly played well as rookies only to run into turbulence in Year 2.

The Panthers, despite Newtons lofty production most definitely shifted away from having him handle the ball 49 plays/game. The last 12 games saw this number decrease to 37.25. If Im guessing, a happy medium will be in the 40-41 plays/game if only because at 49, the Panthers are simply not diversifying their offense enough given some of the pieces they have. Plus, despite his imposing size exposure is exposure and the Panthers would do well to not overexpose their best player.

Despite Newtons prowess inside the 10, I cant see the Panthers relying on him as heavily there (Newton accounted for 9 of the 15 TDs here) when Williams & Stewart would seem to be able to carry some of this load. Plus, I can see this being a counter to teams who will target Newton in this area of the field.

Overall, my feeling is that Newtons ceiling will be capped by the Panthers usage of him and also because I do expect some leveling off in terms of how prolific he could be and I expect that hell be less productive in FF2012 than he was in 2011. But hes still a Top 5-6 QB.

Prediction: 313 Completions, 529 Attempts, 3809 Passing Yards, 20 TDs 13 INTs; 107 Rushes, 569 Rushing Yards 9 TDs

One other caveat. Something I noticed about him when the Falcons played Carolina was that body-language wise, when things started to not go Carolinas way or when hed make a bad play…hed look aggravated or sulk a bit. It was visible. From my POV, this was something that I thought needed to be rectified for him to really take control of the reins of this team and I thought it was the major flaw that could hold him back from becoming a true franchise QB. Despite his otherworldly statistical production, Carolina did go 6-10.

So his disclosure that he thought he was a bad teammate at times during his rookie year was perhaps as good an example of self-examination that Ive seen out of a young player. Perhaps there were others, but IMO, I could not agree more with Newton here and as a Falcon fan, this was not music to my ears because I thought that this was something that could be exposed in terms of leadership ability if he did not change this. The fact that hes looking to improve in this area means good things for the Panthers.

 
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330 Completions, 540 Attempts, 4200 Passing Yards, 25 TD’s 17 INT’s; 112 Rushes, 600 Rushing Yards, 9 TD’s, 1 rec, 1 rec TD
 
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315 Completions, 525 Attempts, 4100 Passing Yards, 20 TD’s 13 INT’s; 100 Rushes, 784 Rushing Yards, 10 TD’s, 1 rec, 1 rec TD, 2 extra points, 1 punt return TD, 1 blocked FG, 6 successful challenges, wins >80% of all coin flips.

 
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?

 
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
Im not comfortable with Cam... but I will draft him incredibly early and just roll the dice.He is a risk that I must absolutely take. If ever Im taking a big early risk in a FF draft, this is the type I want.
 
300 Completions, 500 Attempts, 4200 Passing Yards, 27 TD’s 13 INT’s; 80 Rushes, 500 Rushing Yards, 6 TDs

With the addition of Mike Tolbert and the standard regression to the QB rushing TD mean, you can't expect too much from him this year in that dept. On the other hand, I do think his passing numbers will improve. It's important to remember that he had almost no offseason last year to get ready for the NFL and he still came out white hot. I'd expect passing numbers on a per-game basis to be somewhere between his first half numbers and his second half numbers from last year.

The defenses seemed to catch up to him in the 2nd half last year, but I think an offseason will counteract that. I don't think Bradford's 2nd year is instructive at all. He was injured much of the year and the offense around him was pathetic. Ryan certainly took a step back, but there are tons of QBs who DO progress in their 2nd year. I could list them all, but basically take any QB who has been a top 15 QB in the league over the course of several years and his 2nd year was better.

 
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
There is no legitimate 12 team league where Newton falls to the 3rd round. Maybe, maybe I could see at the end of the 2nd but I can promise you with 100% certainty there will be a dude in every league that thinks he is going to go nuts this year and pick him in the end of the 1rst or first of the 2nd. I would take him in a second at 2.2-2.5 range maybe even higher if he explodes during the preseason.The varibles are there for a huge season. Improved defense, better oline, Getts coming back, off season workouts etc. You have to figure he is a lock for at least 600 yards rushing and 30 td's total. That would be his absolute floor.
 
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Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
There is no legitimate 12 team league where Newton falls to the 3rd round. Maybe, maybe I could see at the end of the 2nd but I can promise you with 100% certainty there will be a dude in every league that thinks he is going to go nuts this year and pick him in the end of the 1rst or first of the 2nd. I would take him in a second at 2.2-2.5 range maybe even higher if he explodes during the preseason.The varibles are there for a huge season. Improved defense, better oline, Getts coming back, off season workouts etc. You have to figure he is a lock for at least 600 yards rushing and 30 td's total. That would be his absolute floor.
with a name like PantherClub, there is no way you are unbiased
 
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
There is no legitimate 12 team league where Newton falls to the 3rd round. Maybe, maybe I could see at the end of the 2nd but I can promise you with 100% certainty there will be a dude in every league that thinks he is going to go nuts this year and pick him in the end of the 1rst or first of the 2nd. I would take him in a second at 2.2-2.5 range maybe even higher if he explodes during the preseason.The varibles are there for a huge season. Improved defense, better oline, Getts coming back, off season workouts etc. You have to figure he is a lock for at least 600 yards rushing and 30 td's total. That would be his absolute floor.
with a name like PantherClub, there is no way you are unbiased
Stats are biased
 
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
No. I was not a believer at this time last year, and was just shocked at what he was able to do (so I give him a ton of credit for what he did). While many point to the unheard of rushing numbers, I was actually more impressed with his passing abilities. From an NFL perspective, these run-first guys seem to do well in the regular season, yet falter when defenses tighten up in the playoffs...I also don't love the self-life on these guys that run so much. I see one of two things happening: 1. It remains status quo in Charlotte, and he continues to run and gets hurt.2. They adjust to preserve their potential franchise QB, and he walks away with similar passing stats and highly reduced rushing numbers (which frankly, they should do).Here's the thing...he doesn't need to run to be a good NFL QB. They need to continue to develop the passer (especially considering they have the best stable of RBs in the league, hands down) in Newton and let the runs come as they may. While this is just speculation, part of me feels that Carolina management understands this, and will do what they can to reduce his running numbers...unfortunately, if this happens, I think he is a better NFL QB than Fantasy QB, and expect to see the following:Passing: 20 TDs, 15 INTs, 3800 yards - Rushing: 70-600-7TDs
 
I am not sure why anyone wouldn't believe Newton is a top 5 QB this year. You know that he's going to get 500+ yards on the ground, along with 3700+ pass yards. While he isn't going to score 14 TDs on the ground, he's a pretty safe bet for 6-7. All he needs to do is cut down on the interceptions and throw a couple more TD passes and he will be right there as a top 5 QB. The CAR offense will run through Newton.

3850 pass yds, 23 TD, 16 Int

675 rush yds, 7 TD

These stats are equivalent to 4600 yds passing, 40 TD, and 12 Int with a scoring system of 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 4 pts per TD pass and 6 pts per TD run....-2 pts per INT. 4600-40-12 are MVP numbers. Now if passing TDs are 6pts instead of 4 pts, Newton's projection would equal 4200-30-12. So Newton is a top 5 QB easily when TD passes are 4 pts, and is more of a top 7-8 QB with all TDs 6 pts. Most leagues score TD passes less than TD runs, so in most leagues Newton is a top 5 QB.

 
I am not sure why anyone wouldn't believe Newton is a top 5 QB this year. You know that he's going to get 500+ yards on the ground, along with 3700+ pass yards. While he isn't going to score 14 TDs on the ground, he's a pretty safe bet for 6-7. All he needs to do is cut down on the interceptions and throw a couple more TD passes and he will be right there as a top 5 QB. The CAR offense will run through Newton.3850 pass yds, 23 TD, 16 Int675 rush yds, 7 TDThese stats are equivalent to 4600 yds passing, 40 TD, and 12 Int with a scoring system of 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 4 pts per TD pass and 6 pts per TD run....-2 pts per INT. 4600-40-12 are MVP numbers. Now if passing TDs are 6pts instead of 4 pts, Newton's projection would equal 4200-30-12. So Newton is a top 5 QB easily when TD passes are 4 pts, and is more of a top 7-8 QB with all TDs 6 pts. Most leagues score TD passes less than TD runs, so in most leagues Newton is a top 5 QB.
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ. Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
 
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'Jason Wood said:
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
Still working on it. I'm adjusting my projections based on the new wishbone attack.
 
Cam is built better than alotta running backs so I wouldnt be so casually assuming hes a high injury risk just because he runs. This is no Vick, Cam is a physical specimen the league has never seen before

 
'breadtree said:
300 Completions, 500 Attempts, 4200 Passing Yards, 27 TD’s 13 INT’s; 80 Rushes, 500 Rushing Yards, 6 TDsWith the addition of Mike Tolbert and the standard regression to the QB rushing TD mean, you can't expect too much from him this year in that dept. On the other hand, I do think his passing numbers will improve. It's important to remember that he had almost no offseason last year to get ready for the NFL and he still came out white hot. I'd expect passing numbers on a per-game basis to be somewhere between his first half numbers and his second half numbers from last year.The defenses seemed to catch up to him in the 2nd half last year, but I think an offseason will counteract that. I don't think Bradford's 2nd year is instructive at all. He was injured much of the year and the offense around him was pathetic. Ryan certainly took a step back, but there are tons of QBs who DO progress in their 2nd year. I could list them all, but basically take any QB who has been a top 15 QB in the league over the course of several years and his 2nd year was better.
A lot of good info in this post, but I don't see the QB rushing TDs going down. If you take a look at their offensive scheme, it's clear that the design is to have the QB run on pass calls when the defense gives certain looks. It was a big part of them doing so great in rushing and YPA last year. I don't think you can just give those stats to Tolbert or any RB without drastically changing the offense.If anything, he may lose a 1 yard qb sneak or 2. I would have to go back and check how many of his TDs he got from the actual offense vs goal line offense.
 
'pantherclub said:
'Jason Wood said:
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
There is no legitimate 12 team league where Newton falls to the 3rd round. Maybe, maybe I could see at the end of the 2nd but I can promise you with 100% certainty there will be a dude in every league that thinks he is going to go nuts this year and pick him in the end of the 1rst or first of the 2nd. I would take him in a second at 2.2-2.5 range maybe even higher if he explodes during the preseason.The varibles are there for a huge season. Improved defense, better oline, Getts coming back, off season workouts etc. You have to figure he is a lock for at least 600 yards rushing and 30 td's total. That would be his absolute floor.
Not everyone plays in leagues with panther homers. :shrug:
 
'breadtree said:
300 Completions, 500 Attempts, 4200 Passing Yards, 27 TD’s 13 INT’s; 80 Rushes, 500 Rushing Yards, 6 TDsWith the addition of Mike Tolbert and the standard regression to the QB rushing TD mean, you can't expect too much from him this year in that dept. On the other hand, I do think his passing numbers will improve. It's important to remember that he had almost no offseason last year to get ready for the NFL and he still came out white hot. I'd expect passing numbers on a per-game basis to be somewhere between his first half numbers and his second half numbers from last year.The defenses seemed to catch up to him in the 2nd half last year, but I think an offseason will counteract that. I don't think Bradford's 2nd year is instructive at all. He was injured much of the year and the offense around him was pathetic. Ryan certainly took a step back, but there are tons of QBs who DO progress in their 2nd year. I could list them all, but basically take any QB who has been a top 15 QB in the league over the course of several years and his 2nd year was better.
A lot of good info in this post, but I don't see the QB rushing TDs going down. If you take a look at their offensive scheme, it's clear that the design is to have the QB run on pass calls when the defense gives certain looks. It was a big part of them doing so great in rushing and YPA last year. I don't think you can just give those stats to Tolbert or any RB without drastically changing the offense.If anything, he may lose a 1 yard qb sneak or 2. I would have to go back and check how many of his TDs he got from the actual offense vs goal line offense.
agreed. I am fairly certain that most of his rushing TDs were called plays, not a function of the line breaking down and Cam just scrambling. That tells me that the coaching staff was more than willing to use their franchise QB in 'dangerous' situations last year-no reason to think this will change. I feel pretty confident that Newton will score double digit TDs on the ground, with his floor being 9.
 
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.

Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.

ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
Because they started to eliminate the Newton runs last year toward the end of the season.Here are runs inside the 10 yard line last year. Over the first 8 games Newton got 15 out of the 24 runs inside the 10. He converted 5 of them, while the others converted 3, so both 33%. In the last 8 weeks, Newton got only 7 of the 17 runs inside the 10. He converted 4 (57%) and the others also converted 4 (40%). Also notice that by the end of the year, you saw the distribution go almost to 50/50, and I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.

Code:
Newton	Other	Newton Total	Other Total		1	2	0	2	0	100.00%	0.00%2	6	1	8	1	88.89%	11.11%3	0	0	8	1	88.89%	11.11%4	3	2	11	3	78.57%	21.43%5	3	1	14	4	77.78%	22.22%6	0	1	14	5	73.68%	26.32%7	3	4	17	9	65.38%	34.62%8	0	1	17	10	62.96%	37.04%9	0	0	17	10	62.96%	37.04%10	0	0	17	10	62.96%	37.04%11	1	0	18	10	64.29%	35.71%12	0	1	18	11	62.07%	37.93%13	5	4	23	15	60.53%	39.47%14	0	0	23	15	60.53%	39.47%15	0	2	23	17	57.50%	42.50%16	1	3	24	20	54.55%	45.45%17	0	0	24	20	54.55%	45.45%
 
'breadtree said:
300 Completions, 500 Attempts, 4200 Passing Yards, 27 TD’s 13 INT’s; 80 Rushes, 500 Rushing Yards, 6 TDsWith the addition of Mike Tolbert and the standard regression to the QB rushing TD mean, you can't expect too much from him this year in that dept. On the other hand, I do think his passing numbers will improve. It's important to remember that he had almost no offseason last year to get ready for the NFL and he still came out white hot. I'd expect passing numbers on a per-game basis to be somewhere between his first half numbers and his second half numbers from last year.The defenses seemed to catch up to him in the 2nd half last year, but I think an offseason will counteract that. I don't think Bradford's 2nd year is instructive at all. He was injured much of the year and the offense around him was pathetic. Ryan certainly took a step back, but there are tons of QBs who DO progress in their 2nd year. I could list them all, but basically take any QB who has been a top 15 QB in the league over the course of several years and his 2nd year was better.
A lot of good info in this post, but I don't see the QB rushing TDs going down. If you take a look at their offensive scheme, it's clear that the design is to have the QB run on pass calls when the defense gives certain looks. It was a big part of them doing so great in rushing and YPA last year. I don't think you can just give those stats to Tolbert or any RB without drastically changing the offense.If anything, he may lose a 1 yard qb sneak or 2. I would have to go back and check how many of his TDs he got from the actual offense vs goal line offense.
agreed. I am fairly certain that most of his rushing TDs were called plays, not a function of the line breaking down and Cam just scrambling. That tells me that the coaching staff was more than willing to use their franchise QB in 'dangerous' situations last year-no reason to think this will change. I feel pretty confident that Newton will score double digit TDs on the ground, with his floor being 9.
Really? You guys don't think that Tolbert was brought int to either (1) provide better blocking for DWill and Stewart so they can run better in short yardage positions or (2) to take the rushing load off of Newton? Rushing TDs are already almost impossible to project for RBs; with QBs, it is that much more difficult, but the trend that I have seen is that it is wickedly sporadic...for example, look at Vick's rushing TDs by year: 1, 8, 1, 3, 6, 2, 2, 9, 1 - So, how do you make a projection off of those numbers? You can't come close to assuming Newton will put up similar numbers again, can you?
 
'breadtree said:
300 Completions, 500 Attempts, 4200 Passing Yards, 27 TD’s 13 INT’s; 80 Rushes, 500 Rushing Yards, 6 TDsWith the addition of Mike Tolbert and the standard regression to the QB rushing TD mean, you can't expect too much from him this year in that dept. On the other hand, I do think his passing numbers will improve. It's important to remember that he had almost no offseason last year to get ready for the NFL and he still came out white hot. I'd expect passing numbers on a per-game basis to be somewhere between his first half numbers and his second half numbers from last year.The defenses seemed to catch up to him in the 2nd half last year, but I think an offseason will counteract that. I don't think Bradford's 2nd year is instructive at all. He was injured much of the year and the offense around him was pathetic. Ryan certainly took a step back, but there are tons of QBs who DO progress in their 2nd year. I could list them all, but basically take any QB who has been a top 15 QB in the league over the course of several years and his 2nd year was better.
A lot of good info in this post, but I don't see the QB rushing TDs going down. If you take a look at their offensive scheme, it's clear that the design is to have the QB run on pass calls when the defense gives certain looks. It was a big part of them doing so great in rushing and YPA last year. I don't think you can just give those stats to Tolbert or any RB without drastically changing the offense.If anything, he may lose a 1 yard qb sneak or 2. I would have to go back and check how many of his TDs he got from the actual offense vs goal line offense.
agreed. I am fairly certain that most of his rushing TDs were called plays, not a function of the line breaking down and Cam just scrambling. That tells me that the coaching staff was more than willing to use their franchise QB in 'dangerous' situations last year-no reason to think this will change. I feel pretty confident that Newton will score double digit TDs on the ground, with his floor being 9.
Really? You guys don't think that Tolbert was brought int to either (1) provide better blocking for DWill and Stewart so they can run better in short yardage positions or (2) to take the rushing load off of Newton? Rushing TDs are already almost impossible to project for RBs; with QBs, it is that much more difficult, but the trend that I have seen is that it is wickedly sporadic...for example, look at Vick's rushing TDs by year: 1, 8, 1, 3, 6, 2, 2, 9, 1 - So, how do you make a projection off of those numbers? You can't come close to assuming Newton will put up similar numbers again, can you?
The fallacy with using vick or any qb as an example of how hard it is to project cam is that the reason those qb tds were so sporadic is that they werent designed plays. Vick scrambling and scoring on a rollout is not the same as newton being the CALLED BALLCARRIER at the goal line. What makes cam so hard to project is figuring out if the panthers will repeat that kind of usage with him now that they have tolbert on the roster. Weve already seen that cam is preferred to dwill and stewart. I think 7 tds is a pretty safe number, but i wouldnt be shocked if it swung to wither extreme. Its not a matter of if he can, just opportunity
 
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.

Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.

ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
Because they started to eliminate the Newton runs last year toward the end of the season.Here are runs inside the 10 yard line last year. Over the first 8 games Newton got 15 out of the 24 runs inside the 10. He converted 5 of them, while the others converted 3, so both 33%. In the last 8 weeks, Newton got only 7 of the 17 runs inside the 10. He converted 4 (57%) and the others also converted 4 (40%). Also notice that by the end of the year, you saw the distribution go almost to 50/50, and I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.

Newton Other Newton Total Other Total 1 2 0 2 0 100.00% 0.00%2 6 1 8 1 88.89% 11.11%3 0 0 8 1 88.89% 11.11%4 3 2 11 3 78.57% 21.43%5 3 1 14 4 77.78% 22.22%6 0 1 14 5 73.68% 26.32%7 3 4 17 9 65.38% 34.62%8 0 1 17 10 62.96% 37.04%9 0 0 17 10 62.96% 37.04%10 0 0 17 10 62.96% 37.04%11 1 0 18 10 64.29% 35.71%12 0 1 18 11 62.07% 37.93%13 5 4 23 15 60.53% 39.47%14 0 0 23 15 60.53% 39.47%15 0 2 23 17 57.50% 42.50%16 1 3 24 20 54.55% 45.45%17 0 0 24 20 54.55% 45.45%
Thanks for putting this together. Great stuff. :thumbup: What this tells me is that the Panthers have a highly effective RZ offense and that Cam scores nearly 1 out of every 2 times he runs the ball inside the 10. Even if the split goes 50/50 on running plays, I'll take a QB that has a 40% chance of scoring running IN ADDITION to a chance of passing for a TD every time their offense is inside the 10. That's fantasy gold and makes every Panthers red zone trip Must See TV, which for me is half the fun. :)

 
Some people are big believers in taking portions of a season and pro-rating statistical production over 16 games to make a point. Some are not. I fall more into the former category when I can take a sizable consistent stretch that also generally leads to the completion of a season.

Cam Newton took the NFL by storm. Pre-season games were dissected and in some cases torn apart. I remember a pre-season 30+ yard completion being debunked because the commentator remarked that the play should have been a touchdown, but the throw was behind the receiver. Make no mistake, most ‘in the know’ people thought the NFL was going to teach Cam Newton a rough lesson. This did not occur.

With that said, the Panthers usage of Newton during the first 4 games of the season versus that last 12 bears some scrutiny.

During the first 4 games, Newton attempted an average of 40.8 passes/game. Over the next 12, this average fell to 29.5, a close to 27% reduction. In addition, his YPA came down from 8.5 to 7.5. No doubt these are respectable numbers that don’t even take into account his impact in the running game and inside the 5 where he essentially is already the best goal line runner in the NFL.

But are we expecting his passing numbers (4051 Passing Yards, 21 TD’s, 7.8 YPA) to improve just because he’s in Year 2? This has not been the case for Matt Ryan or Sam Bradford…two QB’s who unexpectedly played well as rookies only to run into turbulence in Year 2.

The Panthers, despite Newton’s lofty production most definitely shifted away from having him handle the ball 49 plays/game. The last 12 games saw this number decrease to 37.25. If I’m guessing, a happy medium will be in the 40-41 plays/game if only because at 49, the Panthers are simply not diversifying their offense enough given some of the pieces they have. Plus, despite his imposing size – exposure is exposure and the Panthers would do well to not overexpose their best player.

Despite Newton’s prowess inside the 10, I can’t see the Panthers relying on him as heavily there (Newton accounted for 9 of the 15 TD’s here) when Williams & Stewart would seem to be able to carry some of this load. Plus, I can see this being a counter to teams who will target Newton in this area of the field.

Overall, my feeling is that Newton’s ceiling will be capped by the Panthers usage of him and also because I do expect some leveling off in terms of how prolific he could be and I expect that he’ll be less productive in FF2012 than he was in 2011. But he’s still a Top 5-6 QB.

Prediction: 313 Completions, 529 Attempts, 3809 Passing Yards, 20 TD’s 13 INT’s; 107 Rushes, 569 Rushing Yards 9 TD’s

One other caveat. Something I noticed about him when the Falcons played Carolina was that body-language wise, when things started to not go Carolina’s way or when he’d make a bad play…he’d look aggravated or sulk a bit. It was visible. From my POV, this was something that I thought needed to be rectified for him to really take control of the reins of this team and I thought it was the major flaw that could hold him back from becoming a true franchise QB. Despite his otherworldly statistical production, Carolina did go 6-10.

So his disclosure that he thought he was a bad teammate at times during his rookie year was perhaps as good an example of self-examination that I’ve seen out of a young player. Perhaps there were others, but IMO, I could not agree more with Newton here and as a Falcon fan, this was not music to my ears because I thought that this was something that could be exposed in terms of leadership ability if he did not change this. The fact that he’s looking to improve in this area means good things for the Panthers.
Great anaylsis man.. i am huge panthers fan, and of course a Cam fan and watched every game.. i couldn't agree more with everything you said, and i definitely agree that he needs to quit that sulking crap... but from everything i have read this year he is working even harder than last year, has realized some of the mistakes he was making, and has a full training camp this time around :)

so the anything i disagree with you on is the passing numbers.. believe it or not i think those will improve on last year as a player without a training camp can only improve in that area...

4200 passing yds, 25 tds, 18int, 600 rushing yards, 11 rushing tds (the guy is nothing like anything we have ever seen in this league.. he has a nose for the endzone, and is simply a beast at the goaline, even with the addition of Tolber I still see the panthers using him in the situations fairly often... not to mention i think their defense will be way better this year, and will give the panthers offense even more opportunities to score, which is why I think even with the addition of Tolbert, I think Cam's numbers will be balance out to somewhere in that region)...

you have to remember their offense was top 5 last year, with one of the worst run defenses in the league... a defense that allowed teams to run all over them and wear out the clock

 
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I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.

Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.

ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
Because they started to eliminate the Newton runs last year toward the end of the season.Here are runs inside the 10 yard line last year. Over the first 8 games Newton got 15 out of the 24 runs inside the 10. He converted 5 of them, while the others converted 3, so both 33%. In the last 8 weeks, Newton got only 7 of the 17 runs inside the 10. He converted 4 (57%) and the others also converted 4 (40%). Also notice that by the end of the year, you saw the distribution go almost to 50/50, and I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.

Code:
Newton	Other	Newton Total	Other Total		1	2	0	2	0	100.00%	0.00%2	6	1	8	1	88.89%	11.11%3	0	0	8	1	88.89%	11.11%4	3	2	11	3	78.57%	21.43%5	3	1	14	4	77.78%	22.22%6	0	1	14	5	73.68%	26.32%7	3	4	17	9	65.38%	34.62%8	0	1	17	10	62.96%	37.04%9	0	0	17	10	62.96%	37.04%10	0	0	17	10	62.96%	37.04%11	1	0	18	10	64.29%	35.71%12	0	1	18	11	62.07%	37.93%13	5	4	23	15	60.53%	39.47%14	0	0	23	15	60.53%	39.47%15	0	2	23	17	57.50%	42.50%16	1	3	24	20	54.55%	45.45%17	0	0	24	20	54.55%	45.45%
Why?
 
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.

Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.

ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
Because they started to eliminate the Newton runs last year toward the end of the season.Here are runs inside the 10 yard line last year. Over the first 8 games Newton got 15 out of the 24 runs inside the 10. He converted 5 of them, while the others converted 3, so both 33%. In the last 8 weeks, Newton got only 7 of the 17 runs inside the 10. He converted 4 (57%) and the others also converted 4 (40%). Also notice that by the end of the year, you saw the distribution go almost to 50/50, and I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.

Code:
Newton	Other	Newton Total	Other Total		1	2	0	2	0	100.00%	0.00%2	6	1	8	1	88.89%	11.11%3	0	0	8	1	88.89%	11.11%4	3	2	11	3	78.57%	21.43%5	3	1	14	4	77.78%	22.22%6	0	1	14	5	73.68%	26.32%7	3	4	17	9	65.38%	34.62%8	0	1	17	10	62.96%	37.04%9	0	0	17	10	62.96%	37.04%10	0	0	17	10	62.96%	37.04%11	1	0	18	10	64.29%	35.71%12	0	1	18	11	62.07%	37.93%13	5	4	23	15	60.53%	39.47%14	0	0	23	15	60.53%	39.47%15	0	2	23	17	57.50%	42.50%16	1	3	24	20	54.55%	45.45%17	0	0	24	20	54.55%	45.45%
Why?
Mainly because I believe the first 5 weeks were more of the exception rather than the rule. In addition, he seemed to become more effective in converting his chances when he got less of them. It makes sense when after 5 weeks you have to assume teams were selling out to stop Cam while the first 5 weeks they probably assumed he'd just hand the ball off. Then once they started with a more even split, they all became more effective because the defense couldn't key on one player. Thirdly, he's the face of the team and the motor that makes their offense go, so theres no reason to unnecessarily subject him to hits when you now have 3 backs that can punch it in. Carolina is (or at least should be) trying to score as many TD's as possible as a team, not as many as they can get Cam to score. Fourth, Over the final 11 games he got 41% (7 out of 17) of the carries inside the 10. So I'm not really projecting him to decrease carries inside the 10, but mainly stay the course.
 
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Ya, but I don't think his carries went to RB's, they went to passes. If he's tossing in the TD's because they have to key on him running, all that does is convert rushing TDs to passing TDs for him. Did his red zone passing attempts go up as his red zone rushing attempts went down? I think the defense has to pick their poison with Cam between letting him run and letting him throw. Which they chose has very little to do with the running backs.

 
Mainly because I believe the first 5 weeks were more of the exception rather than the rule. In addition, he seemed to become more effective in converting his chances when he got less of them. It makes sense when after 5 weeks you have to assume teams were selling out to stop Cam while the first 5 weeks they probably assumed he'd just hand the ball off. Then once they started with a more even split, they all became more effective because the defense couldn't key on one player. Thirdly, he's the face of the team and the motor that makes their offense go, so theres no reason to unnecessarily subject him to hits when you now have 3 backs that can punch it in. Carolina is (or at least should be) trying to score as many TD's as possible as a team, not as many as they can get Cam to score. Fourth, Over the final 11 games he got 41% (7 out of 17) of the carries inside the 10. So I'm not really projecting him to decrease carries inside the 10, but mainly stay the course.
I don't believe these to be mutually exclusive objectives. If the Panthers best chance to score a TD in the RZ is for Cam to have the ball in his hands, either running or passing, that will be the play 75%+ of the time. I too would be interested to see how running vs. passing attempts break down inside the 10 as that would give a better view of the 75% number I just estimated.At the end of the day, I think this discussion is useful to draw attention to the fact that Cam's rushing TDs are divergent from just about every other running QB in the NFL has few have designed red zone run packages that I can think of, outside Tebow. As another poster mentioned, a lot of those Vick/Young(Steve) TDs were mostly broken plays that are unpredictable and random. Cam's are more normalized, like a goal line back.

 
Ya, but I don't think his carries went to RB's, they went to passes. If he's tossing in the TD's because they have to key on him running, all that does is convert rushing TDs to passing TDs for him. Did his red zone passing attempts go up as his red zone rushing attempts went down? I think the defense has to pick their poison with Cam between letting him run and letting him throw. Which they chose has very little to do with the running backs.
Here are Passes inside the 10 added in. Looks like his red zone passing attempts didn't go up as his rushing attempts went down. In the first 8 games Cam was involved in 80% of plays (13 passes and 17 rushes of out 40 total) from inside the 10, in the last 8 weeks he dropped to 63% (10 passes and 7 rushes out of 27 total)
Code:
Passes	Cam Run	Other Run	CamToT	OtherTot	Cam%	Other%1	1	2	0	3	0	100.00%	0.00%2	5	6	1	14	1	93.33%	6.67%3	0	0	0	14	1	93.33%	6.67%4	1	3	2	18	3	85.71%	14.29%5	3	3	1	24	4	85.71%	14.29%6	1	0	1	25	5	83.33%	16.67%7	1	3	4	29	9	76.32%	23.68%8	1	0	1	30	10	75.00%	25.00%9	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%10	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%11	1	1	0	32	10	76.19%	23.81%12	0	0	1	32	11	74.42%	25.58%13	1	5	4	38	15	71.70%	28.30%14	1	0	0	39	15	72.22%	27.78%15	1	0	2	40	17	70.18%	29.82%16	5	1	3	46	20	69.70%	30.30%17	1	0	0	47	20	70.15%	29.85%
 
I don't believe these to be mutually exclusive objectives. If the Panthers best chance to score a TD in the RZ is for Cam to have the ball in his hands, either running or passing, that will be the play 75%+ of the time. I too would be interested to see how running vs. passing attempts break down inside the 10 as that would give a better view of the 75% number I just estimated.At the end of the day, I think this discussion is useful to draw attention to the fact that Cam's rushing TDs are divergent from just about every other running QB in the NFL has few have designed red zone run packages that I can think of, outside Tebow. As another poster mentioned, a lot of those Vick/Young(Steve) TDs were mostly broken plays that are unpredictable and random. Cam's are more normalized, like a goal line back.
Yeah, I agree, they aren't mutually exclusive. My point was it looked like Cam (and Carolina) became more effective inside the 10 when they had a more equal distribution of Cam Runs vs RB runs. In the first 8 games, with Cam getting 62.5% of the carries as a team they scored on 33% of the carries. When they moved to a 41/59 split, they as a team scored on 47% of the carries. So they scored at a better rate with less punishment on their QB. My post above has the break down of running vs passing. But you see the same thing as with rushing attempts. As a season it ends up being a 70/30 split, but over the last 11 games it's actually a 59/41 split.
 
Ya, but I don't think his carries went to RB's, they went to passes. If he's tossing in the TD's because they have to key on him running, all that does is convert rushing TDs to passing TDs for him. Did his red zone passing attempts go up as his red zone rushing attempts went down? I think the defense has to pick their poison with Cam between letting him run and letting him throw. Which they chose has very little to do with the running backs.
Here are Passes inside the 10 added in. Looks like his red zone passing attempts didn't go up as his rushing attempts went down. In the first 8 games Cam was involved in 80% of plays (13 passes and 17 rushes of out 40 total) from inside the 10, in the last 8 weeks he dropped to 63% (10 passes and 7 rushes out of 27 total)
Code:
Passes	Cam Run	Other Run	CamToT	OtherTot	Cam%	Other%1	1	2	0	3	0	100.00%	0.00%2	5	6	1	14	1	93.33%	6.67%3	0	0	0	14	1	93.33%	6.67%4	1	3	2	18	3	85.71%	14.29%5	3	3	1	24	4	85.71%	14.29%6	1	0	1	25	5	83.33%	16.67%7	1	3	4	29	9	76.32%	23.68%8	1	0	1	30	10	75.00%	25.00%9	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%10	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%11	1	1	0	32	10	76.19%	23.81%12	0	0	1	32	11	74.42%	25.58%13	1	5	4	38	15	71.70%	28.30%14	1	0	0	39	15	72.22%	27.78%15	1	0	2	40	17	70.18%	29.82%16	5	1	3	46	20	69.70%	30.30%17	1	0	0	47	20	70.15%	29.85%
(30 out of 40) 75% to 63% isn't that big of a drop off
 
'pantherclub said:
'Jason Wood said:
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
There is no legitimate 12 team league where Newton falls to the 3rd round. Maybe, maybe I could see at the end of the 2nd but I can promise you with 100% certainty there will be a dude in every league that thinks he is going to go nuts this year and pick him in the end of the 1rst or first of the 2nd. I would take him in a second at 2.2-2.5 range maybe even higher if he explodes during the preseason.The varibles are there for a huge season. Improved defense, better oline, Getts coming back, off season workouts etc. You have to figure he is a lock for at least 600 yards rushing and 30 td's total. That would be his absolute floor.
Not everyone plays in leagues with panther homers. :shrug:
Homers or not, there is no way he lasts in any competitive 12 team league to the 3rd round.
 
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.
MoDog posted some nice stats showing Cam's distribution of carries vs the RB's. However, I don't think Cam running inside the 10 is quite as automatic as you think. Newton got a total of 39 carries in the RZ last year. 23 were inside the 10. He scored 9 inside the 10, for a TD rate of 39.1%. The other 16 came from 11-19 yards out. Cam punched in 4 of those, for a TD rate of 25%. All in all, Newton scored 13 TDs inside the RZ. However, his success rate was 33%. Not quite automatic
 
'pantherclub said:
'Jason Wood said:
Is everyone universally comfortable with Cam as a top 5 or 6 QB? Would you comfortably take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?
There is no legitimate 12 team league where Newton falls to the 3rd round. Maybe, maybe I could see at the end of the 2nd but I can promise you with 100% certainty there will be a dude in every league that thinks he is going to go nuts this year and pick him in the end of the 1rst or first of the 2nd. I would take him in a second at 2.2-2.5 range maybe even higher if he explodes during the preseason.The varibles are there for a huge season. Improved defense, better oline, Getts coming back, off season workouts etc. You have to figure he is a lock for at least 600 yards rushing and 30 td's total. That would be his absolute floor.
Not everyone plays in leagues with panther homers.

:shrug:
Homers or not, there is no way he lasts in any competitive 12 team league to the 3rd round.
Not exactly true. Current ADP at MFL in 12 team leagues since July 1st show he is #16 or the 4th pick of round 2.So while its going to be very rare that he slips out of the 2nd, his lowest selection has been #35 - or the 3rd pick of round 3.

It is true to state that he will never be available in the middle of the 3rd round.

 
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.
MoDog posted some nice stats showing Cam's distribution of carries vs the RB's. However, I don't think Cam running inside the 10 is quite as automatic as you think. Newton got a total of 39 carries in the RZ last year. 23 were inside the 10. He scored 9 inside the 10, for a TD rate of 39.1%. The other 16 came from 11-19 yards out. Cam punched in 4 of those, for a TD rate of 25%. All in all, Newton scored 13 TDs inside the RZ. However, his success rate was 33%. Not quite automatic
I overstated myself when I said RZ. I was thinking that when I looked up and saw Carolina at the 5-7 that Newton was pretty much scoring. End of the day, I haven't crunched the numbers, but have to imagine the guy has a better chance of any other QB in the league of scoring you a TD inside the 10. Just a matter of how many times the guy gets there.Someone like Brady or Rodgers could be more efficient, not sure, but that's a lot of passing TDs to make up for the Cam running TDs.
 
'LittlePhatty said:
'GDogg said:
'Modog814 said:
I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.
Why?
I can't answer for him, but I can think of one reason why they might stick to the second-half game plan. Going into Week 12 of last season their W/L record was 2/8. Then they won 4 out of their last 6 games. Lay those stats over the rushing chart above.
No, I asked why would he expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60. Where did those numbers come from?
 
'Modog814 said:
'GDogg said:
'Modog814 said:
'tombonneau said:
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ.

Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.

ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
Because they started to eliminate the Newton runs last year toward the end of the season.Here are runs inside the 10 yard line last year. Over the first 8 games Newton got 15 out of the 24 runs inside the 10. He converted 5 of them, while the others converted 3, so both 33%. In the last 8 weeks, Newton got only 7 of the 17 runs inside the 10. He converted 4 (57%) and the others also converted 4 (40%). Also notice that by the end of the year, you saw the distribution go almost to 50/50, and I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.

Newton Other Newton Total Other Total 1 2 0 2 0 100.00% 0.00%2 6 1 8 1 88.89% 11.11%3 0 0 8 1 88.89% 11.11%4 3 2 11 3 78.57% 21.43%5 3 1 14 4 77.78% 22.22%6 0 1 14 5 73.68% 26.32%7 3 4 17 9 65.38% 34.62%8 0 1 17 10 62.96% 37.04%9 0 0 17 10 62.96% 37.04%10 0 0 17 10 62.96% 37.04%11 1 0 18 10 64.29% 35.71%12 0 1 18 11 62.07% 37.93%13 5 4 23 15 60.53% 39.47%14 0 0 23 15 60.53% 39.47%15 0 2 23 17 57.50% 42.50%16 1 3 24 20 54.55% 45.45%17 0 0 24 20 54.55% 45.45%
Why?
Mainly because I believe the first 5 weeks were more of the exception rather than the rule. In addition, he seemed to become more effective in converting his chances when he got less of them. It makes sense when after 5 weeks you have to assume teams were selling out to stop Cam while the first 5 weeks they probably assumed he'd just hand the ball off. Then once they started with a more even split, they all became more effective because the defense couldn't key on one player. Thirdly, he's the face of the team and the motor that makes their offense go, so theres no reason to unnecessarily subject him to hits when you now have 3 backs that can punch it in. Carolina is (or at least should be) trying to score as many TD's as possible as a team, not as many as they can get Cam to score. Fourth, Over the final 11 games he got 41% (7 out of 17) of the carries inside the 10. So I'm not really projecting him to decrease carries inside the 10, but mainly stay the course.
I just see it as too small a sample size. Over the last 11 games there only 17 carries inside the ten. That's less than two per game (obviously). And, football coaches don't operate like that (I'd like to get Cam 40% of the carries inside the 10 and the others...). Football coaches want to score as many TDs as possible. The play call will be dictated by down and distance and any adjustments made at the line of scrimmage.I just don't see a "trend" and certainly don't see anything leading to a path of 40-60 split. There were only four games out of the 11 where players other than Cam got more than one carry inside the 10.

 
315 Completions, 525 Attempts, 4100 Passing Yards, 20 TD’s 13 INT’s; 100 Rushes, 784 Rushing Yards, 10 TD’s, 1 rec, 1 rec TD, 2 extra points, 1 punt return TD, 1 blocked FG, 6 successful challenges, wins >80% of all coin flips.
SOLD
 
Mo, you're doing great work in this thread. It's interesting when what I saw (or think I saw) in the games doesn't exactly match up with the stats.

Ultimately, everyone is going to have to decide if they think that style of offense is good for a stretch of games, a season, or indefinitely as long as you have an athlete like Cam Newton. That will have more of an impact than anything on Cam's overall numbers.

 
'DeaLerZ said:
'Modog814 said:
'cheese said:
Ya, but I don't think his carries went to RB's, they went to passes. If he's tossing in the TD's because they have to key on him running, all that does is convert rushing TDs to passing TDs for him. Did his red zone passing attempts go up as his red zone rushing attempts went down? I think the defense has to pick their poison with Cam between letting him run and letting him throw. Which they chose has very little to do with the running backs.
Here are Passes inside the 10 added in. Looks like his red zone passing attempts didn't go up as his rushing attempts went down. In the first 8 games Cam was involved in 80% of plays (13 passes and 17 rushes of out 40 total) from inside the 10, in the last 8 weeks he dropped to 63% (10 passes and 7 rushes out of 27 total)
Code:
Passes	Cam Run	Other Run	CamToT	OtherTot	Cam%	Other%1	1	2	0	3	0	100.00%	0.00%2	5	6	1	14	1	93.33%	6.67%3	0	0	0	14	1	93.33%	6.67%4	1	3	2	18	3	85.71%	14.29%5	3	3	1	24	4	85.71%	14.29%6	1	0	1	25	5	83.33%	16.67%7	1	3	4	29	9	76.32%	23.68%8	1	0	1	30	10	75.00%	25.00%9	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%10	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%11	1	1	0	32	10	76.19%	23.81%12	0	0	1	32	11	74.42%	25.58%13	1	5	4	38	15	71.70%	28.30%14	1	0	0	39	15	72.22%	27.78%15	1	0	2	40	17	70.18%	29.82%16	5	1	3	46	20	69.70%	30.30%17	1	0	0	47	20	70.15%	29.85%
(30 out of 40) 75% to 63% isn't that big of a drop off
Sorry, you're right 75% not 80% dont' know where i got 80% from. The size of the drop off is relative to how you look at it. Consider they had 67 plays inside the 10 last year. The difference between 75% and 63% is 8 scoring opportunities. Thats 3 or 4 TD's.
 
'LittlePhatty said:
'GDogg said:
'Modog814 said:
I expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60.
Why?
I can't answer for him, but I can think of one reason why they might stick to the second-half game plan. Going into Week 12 of last season their W/L record was 2/8. Then they won 4 out of their last 6 games. Lay those stats over the rushing chart above.
No, I asked why would he expect this trend to continue and ultimately be closer to 40/60. Where did those numbers come from?
The 40/60 is obviously an estimate, but it comes from 1) Over the last 8 games he got 41% of the carries inside the 10 (7 of 17) and 2) They seemed more efficient (in terms of scoring TD's) over the last 8 games than they did over the first 8 (when Newton got the majority of carries), so I'd lean toward them continuing to do what they did the last 8 rather than go back to what they were doing at the start of the year.

 
I just see it as too small a sample size. Over the last 11 games there only 17 carries inside the ten. That's less than two per game (obviously). And, football coaches don't operate like that (I'd like to get Cam 40% of the carries inside the 10 and the others...). Football coaches want to score as many TDs as possible. The play call will be dictated by down and distance and any adjustments made at the line of scrimmage.I just don't see a "trend" and certainly don't see anything leading to a path of 40-60 split. There were only four games out of the 11 where players other than Cam got more than one carry inside the 10.
Perhaps it is a small sample size, but it's the only sample we have. And no, coaches don't operate like that, and yes you're right coaches want to score as many TD's as possible. But you can't argue the fact that they were scoring more efficiently once they started working Stewart and Willaims (and whomever else) into the game plan down there. I'm not sure how you don't see the trend, it's clearly decreasing as the season goes on. In the final 12 games, they had 0 rushes inside the 10 4 times, 6 of the games had other players account for more rushes than Newton and 2 times Newton had more rushes than the other players. and as for
There were only four games out of the 11 where players other than Cam got more than one carry inside the 10.
there were only 2 games out of the last 12 where Newton got more than 1 carry inside the 10.
 
Mo, you're doing great work in this thread. It's interesting when what I saw (or think I saw) in the games doesn't exactly match up with the stats.Ultimately, everyone is going to have to decide if they think that style of offense is good for a stretch of games, a season, or indefinitely as long as you have an athlete like Cam Newton. That will have more of an impact than anything on Cam's overall numbers.
Thanks. I'm with you, I seem to recall every week seeing a Newton get all the GL love (and I owned Williams so I remember being frustrated) so I totally expected to look up the stats and agree that he would still get a majority of the carries. In the end, it's really just a guess game and like GDogg said, down, distance and defense will dictate the play. And with a threat like Newton you know he'll probably have the option of keeping the ball himself if he see's something despite what the play call was. I really think he took advantage the first couple games as teams weren't ready to face someone like him and as the season went on teams made a big effort to not let Newton beat them with his legs, and Newton smartly handed the ball off if he didn't have an easy TD and kept it when he thought he saw an opening. I expect us to see more of this and that's why I think overall his rushing TD's are going to decline.
 
'tombonneau said:
I am not sure why anyone wouldn't believe Newton is a top 5 QB this year. You know that he's going to get 500+ yards on the ground, along with 3700+ pass yards. While he isn't going to score 14 TDs on the ground, he's a pretty safe bet for 6-7. All he needs to do is cut down on the interceptions and throw a couple more TD passes and he will be right there as a top 5 QB. The CAR offense will run through Newton.3850 pass yds, 23 TD, 16 Int675 rush yds, 7 TDThese stats are equivalent to 4600 yds passing, 40 TD, and 12 Int with a scoring system of 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 1 pt per 10 yards rushing, 4 pts per TD pass and 6 pts per TD run....-2 pts per INT. 4600-40-12 are MVP numbers. Now if passing TDs are 6pts instead of 4 pts, Newton's projection would equal 4200-30-12. So Newton is a top 5 QB easily when TD passes are 4 pts, and is more of a top 7-8 QB with all TDs 6 pts. Most leagues score TD passes less than TD runs, so in most leagues Newton is a top 5 QB.
I'm not sure why everyone is so casually cutting his rushing TDs in half. I owned him last year so watched a lot of Panthers games, and every time they got inside the 5-10 yard line it seemed like Newton was automatic for 6. Would love to see RZ success rate by play. Why would the Panthers eliminate such a high percentage play? The Pats don't handoff when they need a foot, they run the Brady Sneak because it's automatic, despite the higher QB injury risk, I think Panthers so the same in the RZ. Ths is an instance where Regression to the Mean Group Think is off base. We don't know what Newtons mean rushing TD total should be bc there really hasn't been a guy that big and fast who can take the hots that a Vick can't.. Culpepper is comparable but wasn't nearly as fast. My guess is his mean rushing TD totals for his early career will be closer to 9-10 which means yes he'll have 6-7 TD seasons but I think that is the low end not the mean.ETA: Just scrolled up and see some folks are predicting 9-10 rushing TDs. I obviously agree with them :) and poster I'm quoting almost seems to be referencing 6-7 as a floor so please excuse my lack of reading comprehension. ;)
Modog814 says it very well. Defenseive Coordinators have a year of game film on Newton. Defenses are going to adjust and defend Newton much more near the goalline. They are going to try and make him pass it more in the redzone. Plus, CAR brought in Tolbert so they now have 3 backs that can punch it in from close. CAR needs to protect their franchise player to a certain extent. CAR will likely counter by rolling out Newton near the goalline, bring the defense up to stop him, and he will have plenty of opportunites to throw it to say Olsen for a easy TD pass.That said, I still think Newton will lead the league in QB TD runs, and I wouldn't be shocked that he gets 9 or 10, but predicting 9 or 10 means that you think he has a decent chance at 12-14. It's never happened before....a QB rushing for 10+ TDs in year N and again in year N+1.....think Kordell Stewart (but Newton is much more talented than Stewart so I wouldn't necessarily rule it out). I just want to see it again before it becomes the norm.....Newton rushing for 10+ TDs.
 
'DeaLerZ said:
'Modog814 said:
'cheese said:
Ya, but I don't think his carries went to RB's, they went to passes. If he's tossing in the TD's because they have to key on him running, all that does is convert rushing TDs to passing TDs for him. Did his red zone passing attempts go up as his red zone rushing attempts went down? I think the defense has to pick their poison with Cam between letting him run and letting him throw. Which they chose has very little to do with the running backs.
Here are Passes inside the 10 added in. Looks like his red zone passing attempts didn't go up as his rushing attempts went down. In the first 8 games Cam was involved in 80% of plays (13 passes and 17 rushes of out 40 total) from inside the 10, in the last 8 weeks he dropped to 63% (10 passes and 7 rushes out of 27 total)
Code:
Passes	Cam Run	Other Run	CamToT	OtherTot	Cam%	Other%1	1	2	0	3	0	100.00%	0.00%2	5	6	1	14	1	93.33%	6.67%3	0	0	0	14	1	93.33%	6.67%4	1	3	2	18	3	85.71%	14.29%5	3	3	1	24	4	85.71%	14.29%6	1	0	1	25	5	83.33%	16.67%7	1	3	4	29	9	76.32%	23.68%8	1	0	1	30	10	75.00%	25.00%9	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%10	0	0	0	30	10	75.00%	25.00%11	1	1	0	32	10	76.19%	23.81%12	0	0	1	32	11	74.42%	25.58%13	1	5	4	38	15	71.70%	28.30%14	1	0	0	39	15	72.22%	27.78%15	1	0	2	40	17	70.18%	29.82%16	5	1	3	46	20	69.70%	30.30%17	1	0	0	47	20	70.15%	29.85%
(30 out of 40) 75% to 63% isn't that big of a drop off
Sorry, you're right 75% not 80% dont' know where i got 80% from. The size of the drop off is relative to how you look at it. Consider they had 67 plays inside the 10 last year. The difference between 75% and 63% is 8 scoring opportunities. Thats 3 or 4 TD's.
Good point, and thanks for the in-depth anaylsis
 
I just see it as too small a sample size. Over the last 11 games there only 17 carries inside the ten. That's less than two per game (obviously). And, football coaches don't operate like that (I'd like to get Cam 40% of the carries inside the 10 and the others...). Football coaches want to score as many TDs as possible. The play call will be dictated by down and distance and any adjustments made at the line of scrimmage.I just don't see a "trend" and certainly don't see anything leading to a path of 40-60 split. There were only four games out of the 11 where players other than Cam got more than one carry inside the 10.
Perhaps it is a small sample size, but it's the only sample we have. And no, coaches don't operate like that, and yes you're right coaches want to score as many TD's as possible. But you can't argue the fact that they were scoring more efficiently once they started working Stewart and Willaims (and whomever else) into the game plan down there. I'm not sure how you don't see the trend, it's clearly decreasing as the season goes on. In the final 12 games, they had 0 rushes inside the 10 4 times, 6 of the games had other players account for more rushes than Newton and 2 times Newton had more rushes than the other players. and as for
There were only four games out of the 11 where players other than Cam got more than one carry inside the 10.
there were only 2 games out of the last 12 where Newton got more than 1 carry inside the 10.
True. And, I appreciate the analysis and discussion, but (and I do not mean this in a bad way) this just makes me think any "trend" that is being seen isn't a trend and is even more meaningless. I mean, one play per game or every other game is not going to show us a pattern or trend. I realize that's all we have, but it's also why I don't think there's anything there. And, I still don't see it as showing a pattern of how the Panthers are going to operate moving forward. Let me put it this way - if there was no defense on the field (or if the defense on the field played the Panthers the exact same way the entire season with the same personnel), THEN maybe I can see a trend. But, football isn't played like that. Unless a coach wants to get fired, they aren't going to bang their head against a wall (other than the obvious of getting a look to set up another play later in the game) trying to run certain players or plays over and over. Coaches adjust to what the defense or offense is doing to them. I am quite certain that if/when coaches begin loading up to stop Stewart/Williams, then we'll see an uptick in Newton stats. When defenses are keying on Newton, then you'll see the coaches and Newton switch to passes or designed runs to the RBs.I see those stats as, "in that situation, this is what they had to do strategically," rather than a, "in these situations, this is what we are going to do because that's what we prefer to do." It's a game by game situation.
 
Mo, you're doing great work in this thread. It's interesting when what I saw (or think I saw) in the games doesn't exactly match up with the stats.

Ultimately, everyone is going to have to decide if they think that style of offense is good for a stretch of games, a season, or indefinitely as long as you have an athlete like Cam Newton. That will have more of an impact than anything on Cam's overall numbers.
Thanks. I'm with you, I seem to recall every week seeing a Newton get all the GL love (and I owned Williams so I remember being frustrated) so I totally expected to look up the stats and agree that he would still get a majority of the carries.

In the end, it's really just a guess game and like GDogg said, down, distance and defense will dictate the play. And with a threat like Newton you know he'll probably have the option of keeping the ball himself if he see's something despite what the play call was. I really think he took advantage the first couple games as teams weren't ready to face someone like him and as the season went on teams made a big effort to not let Newton beat them with his legs, and Newton smartly handed the ball off if he didn't have an easy TD and kept it when he thought he saw an opening. I expect us to see more of this and that's why I think overall his rushing TD's are going to decline.
Now, I can completely agree with that.But, the flip side is also true. If Stewart and Williams are killing it down in the red zone, NFL coordinators are going to try to plug those up (they'll try to stop everything, obviously, but there is going to be some vulnerability in spots). And, then I expect Newton and the coaches to adjust and see more bootlegs, designed QB runs and roll outs where Newton has the option of passing or running.

 
His Rushing TDs and attempts dropped ONLY because the TOTAL number of Redzone carries fell.

Over the first 10 games, Newton got 10 of 19 runs inside the 5 yard line. Over the final 6 games (when his dip supposedly happened) he got 5 of 9. Nearly the EXACT SAME ratio.

The Panthers scored a goalie TD ONCE on a traditional handoff. Every other score was from the shotgun, when Newton has a run/handoff option. Newton keeps it just about 50% of the time. Why? Because it keeps defenses honest and guessing. That won't change.

He is the best goal line back in the game, because he can do it from the QB spot. His success ratio is as good as it gets and there is no reason for the Panthers to change that. Newton will take more, harder hits in practice than he does on 15 runs over a 17 week season, from the 2 or 3 yard line. The majority of the time he doesn't get hit, other than to fall into the back of his lineman.

 
Defenses are going to adjust and defend Newton much more near the goalline. They are going to try and make him pass it more in the redzone. Plus, CAR brought in Tolbert so they now have 3 backs that can punch it in from close.
Film? Adjust? To a zone read option? They have plenty of film - always have, at the very least, since Miami was running it. You think there is some secret to stopping it? -There are two potential ball carriers (the Panthers are right at 50% RB/QB split, so defenses can't guess)-The primary ball carrier can pass-The play can go two different directions. There is a reason Cam Newton led the league in goal line production last season, and it's NOT because defenses didn't know what was coming. They ran the same play OVER AND OVER and nobody could stop it. That won't change.
 

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