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Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Darren Sproles Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
His value is obviously tied to the type of league you are in. With PT23, Ivory, and Ingram (all though he's banged up now) in the mix, Sproles is probably stuck in the range of 5-8 carries per game. I don't think Sproles repeats his 6.9 ypc or 86 catches. He had 35 2nd half catches..but did have 19 in two playoff games. I'm going to put him at about 75 catches. His ypc have slipped from elite (11.8 four years ago, 11.0 three years ago) to just good (8.8 and 8.3 last two years) but I still think he can reach 9ypc. So that's what I'm going with. He is a dynamic playmaker that the Saint will make sure gets around 10 touches per game again, which I think comes in the form similar to last years breakdown, 85 carries and 75 catches. However that 6.9ypc will be super tough to even come within 1.0 yards of. He has a wide open passing attack in New Orleans, not too different from his San Diego days, which lets him roam free more. His career ypc is still elite, but is a more reasonable 5.2. The only season he had less than a 4.4 ypc is 2009 when SD tried to make him the starter for a game or two. He's better used as what he is, a monster 3rd down back that gets some carries here and there. I see him ypc at 5.5, still elite but not close to last year. His td's of 10 total (all purpose) last year are probably his highpoint since he never had more than 8 in a season before. However, he did score 3 in 2 playoff games. It is also tough to envision 7 receiving td's again regardless of how dynamic of a pass catcher he is. Since the Saints use him more than the Chargers, I'm not going to give him a drastic drop though, and 5 rec td's sounds reasonable. Toss in 2 rushing td's and 1 returning td. So my statistical breakdown for him would be:

16 games

85 carries

5.5 ypc

468 rushing yards

2 touchdowns

75 rec

9.0 ypc

675 yards

5 touchdowns

1 return touchdown

8 total td's

1143 total yards

So while I, like most, see regression, I still think he is a serviceable mid to low end rb2 for non-ppr purposes. For ppr he is close to top 10, all though you won't have to draft him as such. For ppr+ return leagues, he's a 1st rounder most likely ( a guesstimate, I haven't played in a return yardage league in 10 years).

For PPR purposes, he isn't going to be your teams high scorer or win you many weeks, but he had only one true dud last year. He should be consistently helping your team each week. He's probably one of the safest players to draft in ppr-leagues. He 13 or more points in 14 out of 16 weeks. Pretty incredible.

Since I play in a ppr he's 100% a target of mine in round 3.

 
This is a guy who San Diego franchised and then inexplicably relegated to almost a pure special teams role, and then let him leave for New Orleans. Most assumed he would play a part in the Saints offensive machine, but no one thought he would end up as not only their most productive running back, but a legitimate top 10 fantasy stud in PPR leagues. He was aided not only by the system, but also by the frustratingly lackluster performance of heralded rookie Mark Ingram. The Saints lost Robert Meachem in the offseason, but realistically his targets weren't getting in the way of Sproles anyway...meanwhile they did keep Marques Colston, and Lance Moore remains. That's to say nothing of Jimmy Graham -- who along with Rob Gronkowski is reshaping what we think tight ends are capable of.

Where do you stand on Sproles?

 
'Addai said:
He peaked last year IMO.
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OK, but that's not really value add analysis.Why do you think he peaked?And even if last year was his peak, 90% of last year is still rock solid value in almost any league format. But 75% of last year? Less valuable. 60% of last year? A draft day disappointment.
 
'Jason Wood said:
'Addai said:
He peaked last year IMO.
Click to expand...
OK, but that's not really value add analysis.Why do you think he peaked?And even if last year was his peak, 90% of last year is still rock solid value in almost any league format. But 75% of last year? Less valuable. 60% of last year? A draft day disappointment.
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Last season was a bit of s surprise. Those who got him probably got him late, making him a steal for most. This season he will be taken much earlier, reducing his relative "value". Most leagues (standard ones anyway)don't even offer point for return yards, which is where the bulk of his yards come from.I would be surprised if he got %75 of his yards from scrimmage this season when compared to last. Ingram will come on a bit.
 
'Addai said:
'Jason Wood said:
'Addai said:
He peaked last year IMO.
Click to expand...
OK, but that's not really value add analysis.Why do you think he peaked?And even if last year was his peak, 90% of last year is still rock solid value in almost any league format. But 75% of last year? Less valuable. 60% of last year? A draft day disappointment.
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Last season was a bit of s surprise. Those who got him probably got him late, making him a steal for most. This season he will be taken much earlier, reducing his relative "value". Most leagues (standard ones anyway)don't even offer point for return yards, which is where the bulk of his yards come from.I would be surprised if he got %75 of his yards from scrimmage this season when compared to last. Ingram will come on a bit.
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He peaked? This cracks me up.He set the NFL's all-time all purpose yardage record.Yes, he may just not have quite as many yards this year.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKruk2DBeu8
 
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I will pay the high price for this guy in my PPR league. He's gold, he's explosive, plays on a high octane team with a future Hall-of-Fame QB who knows he's their most explosive player along with Graham. He can break the back of your opponent on any given play.

I'd take him mid to late 2nd and pray for him in the 3rd.

 
I see no reason why Sproles won't be as good this year as he was last year. He only scored 9 touchdowns last year, so it is not like he has to put up 12-15 touchdowns to match last year's production again. 86 catches is a lot, but the Saints offense, even without Sean Payton, should be as good this year, and if the team isn't as good as last year, Sproles will be the RB they use a lot when they are in catch up mode, so he could get a lot of catches in those games. The toughest part is depending on this guy as a number 1 or 2 RB, as there will be weeks where he doesn't get enough touches for him to have a chance to be super productive, and other weeks you almost have to wait for that one big play or two for him to justify his spot, but when it is all said and done, he should still put up around 1,200 total yards from scrimmage, 7-9 touchdowns, and 75-90 catches. In this day and age of PPR leagues, that is more than good enough to be a number 2 RB on FF teams.

 
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'Ghost Rider said:
I see no reason why Sproles won't be as good this year as he was last year. He only scored 9 touchdowns last year, so it is not like he has to put up 12-15 touchdowns to match last year's production again. 86 catches is a lot, but the Saints offense, even without Sean Payton, should be as good this year, and if the team isn't as good as last year, Sproles will be the RB they use a lot when they are in catch up mode, so he could get a lot of catches in those games. The toughest part is depending on this guy as a number 1 or 2 RB, as there will be weeks where he doesn't get enough touches for him to have a chance to be super productive, and other weeks you almost have to wait for that one big play or two for him to justify his spot, but when it is all said and done, he should still put up around 1,200 total yards from scrimmage, 7-9 touchdowns, and 75-90 catches. In this day and age of PPR leagues, that is more than good enough to be a number 2 RB on FF teams.
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You're right in that Sproles doesn't need to score 12 - 12 TDs to match last years production. That's a good thing too, because it's pretty unlikely that he will score double digit TDs in NO. At least as long as NO has the other RBs on their roster. What he does need to do in order to match his production his basically perform at an unusually high rate on his touches. Last year Sproles averaged 6.9 YPA and 8.3 YPC in NO. Those are extremely high numbers, particularly the YPA. I'd be very surprised if he repeated that mark. On top of that, he recorded 86 receptions. That too is a very high total that I'd be surprised if he repeated. I'm not saying he won't come close to that mark, but I'd venture to guess it will be closer to the 70 range.

Here's what i find alarming about Sproles, the rushing attempts inside the 20 and inside the 10;

Carries inside the 10/TDs;

Sproles 3/0

Ingram 12/1

Thomas 9/4

Ivory 4/0

Carries inside the 20/TDs;

Sproles 16/1

Ingram 35/5

Thomas 28/9

Ivory 30/1

Sproles is reliant on big plays in order to attain fantasy succuss it appears. While it is possible that he continues to produce those big plays, I don't think it's likely to repeat on a record breaking all purpose yardage performance. I expect that Ingram will be used more this year seeing that an injury slowed him a great deal last season. I also think the overall productivity of the NO offense will take a step back from 2011.

80 carries, 475 yds, 2 TDs

72 receptions, 575 yds, 5 TDs

 
'jurb26 said:
'Ghost Rider said:
I see no reason why Sproles won't be as good this year as he was last year. He only scored 9 touchdowns last year, so it is not like he has to put up 12-15 touchdowns to match last year's production again. 86 catches is a lot, but the Saints offense, even without Sean Payton, should be as good this year, and if the team isn't as good as last year, Sproles will be the RB they use a lot when they are in catch up mode, so he could get a lot of catches in those games. The toughest part is depending on this guy as a number 1 or 2 RB, as there will be weeks where he doesn't get enough touches for him to have a chance to be super productive, and other weeks you almost have to wait for that one big play or two for him to justify his spot, but when it is all said and done, he should still put up around 1,200 total yards from scrimmage, 7-9 touchdowns, and 75-90 catches. In this day and age of PPR leagues, that is more than good enough to be a number 2 RB on FF teams.
Click to expand...
You're right in that Sproles doesn't need to score 12 - 12 TDs to match last years production. That's a good thing too, because it's pretty unlikely that he will score double digit TDs in NO. At least as long as NO has the other RBs on their roster. What he does need to do in order to match his production his basically perform at an unusually high rate on his touches. Last year Sproles averaged 6.9 YPA and 8.3 YPC in NO. Those are extremely high numbers, particularly the YPA. I'd be very surprised if he repeated that mark. On top of that, he recorded 86 receptions. That too is a very high total that I'd be surprised if he repeated. I'm not saying he won't come close to that mark, but I'd venture to guess it will be closer to the 70 range.

Here's what i find alarming about Sproles, the rushing attempts inside the 20 and inside the 10;

Carries inside the 10/TDs;

Sproles 3/0

Ingram 12/1

Thomas 9/4

Ivory 4/0

Carries inside the 20/TDs;

Sproles 16/1

Ingram 35/5

Thomas 28/9

Ivory 30/1

Sproles is reliant on big plays in order to attain fantasy succuss it appears. While it is possible that he continues to produce those big plays, I don't think it's likely to repeat on a record breaking all purpose yardage performance. I expect that Ingram will be used more this year seeing that an injury slowed him a great deal last season. I also think the overall productivity of the NO offense will take a step back from 2011.

80 carries, 475 yds, 2 TDs

72 receptions, 575 yds, 5 TDs
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In order to be alarmed, you are seeing something that surprises you? Were you somehow under the impression that a guy with 2 rushing TDs (6 for his entire career coming into 2011) would be used (as a rusher) in the red zone?You mention his reliance on big plays?? His longest play from scrimmage was 39 yards.

I think you are approaching Sproles with the wrong impression of who or what he is. He was the poster child for consistency in 2011.

eta - 525 rushing, 80-650 rec., 7 TDs ++ return yardage

 
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'matuski said:
'jurb26 said:
'Ghost Rider said:
I see no reason why Sproles won't be as good this year as he was last year. He only scored 9 touchdowns last year, so it is not like he has to put up 12-15 touchdowns to match last year's production again. 86 catches is a lot, but the Saints offense, even without Sean Payton, should be as good this year, and if the team isn't as good as last year, Sproles will be the RB they use a lot when they are in catch up mode, so he could get a lot of catches in those games. The toughest part is depending on this guy as a number 1 or 2 RB, as there will be weeks where he doesn't get enough touches for him to have a chance to be super productive, and other weeks you almost have to wait for that one big play or two for him to justify his spot, but when it is all said and done, he should still put up around 1,200 total yards from scrimmage, 7-9 touchdowns, and 75-90 catches. In this day and age of PPR leagues, that is more than good enough to be a number 2 RB on FF teams.
Click to expand...
You're right in that Sproles doesn't need to score 12 - 12 TDs to match last years production. That's a good thing too, because it's pretty unlikely that he will score double digit TDs in NO. At least as long as NO has the other RBs on their roster. What he does need to do in order to match his production his basically perform at an unusually high rate on his touches. Last year Sproles averaged 6.9 YPA and 8.3 YPC in NO. Those are extremely high numbers, particularly the YPA. I'd be very surprised if he repeated that mark. On top of that, he recorded 86 receptions. That too is a very high total that I'd be surprised if he repeated. I'm not saying he won't come close to that mark, but I'd venture to guess it will be closer to the 70 range.

Here's what i find alarming about Sproles, the rushing attempts inside the 20 and inside the 10;

Carries inside the 10/TDs;

Sproles 3/0

Ingram 12/1

Thomas 9/4

Ivory 4/0

Carries inside the 20/TDs;

Sproles 16/1

Ingram 35/5

Thomas 28/9

Ivory 30/1

Sproles is reliant on big plays in order to attain fantasy succuss it appears. While it is possible that he continues to produce those big plays, I don't think it's likely to repeat on a record breaking all purpose yardage performance. I expect that Ingram will be used more this year seeing that an injury slowed him a great deal last season. I also think the overall productivity of the NO offense will take a step back from 2011.

80 carries, 475 yds, 2 TDs

72 receptions, 575 yds, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
In order to be alarmed, you are seeing something that surprises you? Were you somehow under the impression that a guy with 2 rushing TDs (6 for his entire career coming into 2011) would be used (as a rusher) in the red zone?You mention his reliance on big plays?? His longest play from scrimmage was 39 yards.

I think you are approaching Sproles with the wrong impression of who or what he is. He was the poster child for consistency in 2011.

eta - 525 rushing, 80-650 rec., 7 TDs ++ return yardage
Click to expand...
Maybe I wasn't clear enough in my post. Rereading it is seems that way. What I am trying to say is that in order for Sproles to continue to put up fantasy point totals like he did last year 1 of 3 things have to happen.

1. He needs to continue to produce yardage at the ultra high rate per touch he did last year.

2. He needs to find a way to garner more touches.

3. He needs to score more TDs.

Seeing that he yds per touch were off the charts high and I don't expect the NO offense to produce at the same insane level they did last year, I'm not a big believer in #1.

Seeing that Ingram will supposedly be "healthy" next year I'd envision he starts to see more involvement in the offense. On top of that, 86 receptions for a RB is rare and I'd be surprised to see that feat repeated. Both of these things leading to #2 not being likely IMO.

Lastly, the TDs are unlikley because of his usage in the offense. That was not surprising to me and I'm sure it isn't to most anyone. The fact remains that his points have to come from somewhere and the quickest way to raise that point total is to score more TDs. Ghost Rider said " He only scored 9 touchdowns last year..." I'm not sure if he meant that to sound the way I took it but it seems to come off to me as if he feels that the TD total could easily be more. I don't agree with that if that was his intent.

 
From a non-ppr point of view, I think we're looking at a big disappointment this year. Sproles is going off the board as the 18th RB. That's understandable as he finished RB10 last year, although I'm sure he was a bit lower on a PPG basis. But what separated him from RB20 was about 4 TDs, which I really don't expect this year. 2 TDs on 87 carries for a non-goal line back sounds about right, but 7 TDs on 86 receptions is really high for a RB. Considering his targets actually fell off in the second half of the season (66 vs. 41), I just don't feel comfortable with him. I think he is a prime candidate for a slip to RB3 territory.

5 carries/gm x 16 x 5.0 ypc = 400 yds 2 TD, 90 targ x 80% = 72 rec x 8.5 ypr = 612 yds 2 TD

 
Perception is important.

Sproles outproduced Reggie Bush in college. Sproles outproduced Bush by a large margin in the same role in the Saints offense (& ST).

Now where are people evaluating Bush this year after his best season in MIA as opposed to Sproles? Better? Worse?

Look at the Saints' opening schedule up to and just past the bye:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/schedule/NO/new-orleans-saints

I see the Skins with a rookie QB who might have turnovers and sacks in the first game, followed by a CAR defense that was terrible last year, followed by GB (almost worst in the league on defense last year), SD (in the Dome, shootout), KC in the middle (possibly an excellent defense this year but this will be in the Dome...), and then TB.

PPR or non PPR there is value in TD's and Sproles will again be getting ample opportunities to get 1-2 TD's per game in first 6 games at least.

 
'jurb26 said:
Ghost Rider said " He only scored 9 touchdowns last year..." I'm not sure if he meant that to sound the way I took it but it seems to come off to me as if he feels that the TD total could easily be more. I don't agree with that if that was his intent.
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What I meant was, some think it will be almost impossible for him to duplicate what he did last year, but it is not like he finished so high because he scored 12 or 14 touchdowns, which would be an anomaly for a guy his size and with his "limited" touches. Me saying, "he only scored 9 touchdowns this year," meant that him finishing close to that TD total again is fairly probable (if we can consider the 7-11 range close to 9), and when you factor in the fact that he should still be a PPR monster, him being about as good this year as he was last year is a lot more possible than many think it is, IMO. And even if he drops down to only 4-6 TDs, he should still be a very solid number 2 RB in PPR leagues.
 
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Old guy has a career year and everyone expects him to repeat. He won't get the same amount of touches this season.

90 carries/420 yards

65 rec/540 yards

6 total td's

 
29 is not old, especially given the fact that Sproles has never gotten tons of touches (meaning, he won't wear down as quickly as every down RBs).

Also, everyone is expecting him to repeat it? Link? And don't say this one, since even someone like me is conceding that his overall numbers might drop off a bit, but still be good enough to justify his worth as a solid number 2 RB in PPR.

 
'moderated said:
'Ghost Rider said:
29 is not old.
Click to expand...
For an nfl RB it's equivalent to being a 65-70 year old normal person.
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Not considering the touches Sproles has gotten over the course of his NFL career. His 173 touches (not counting kick returns) was a career HIGH last year; he had averaged 112 touches on offense in SD the three years prior to last. 568 total touches from scrimmage in 6 seasons is nothing so far. Of course, the argument could be made that his size and him getting hit on kickoff and punt returns will expedite the wear and tear on his body, but he rarely takes direct shots, as he is so slippery and elusive, so he doesn't take frequent shots like RBs who constantly pound it in between the tackles do. Yes, he will eventually wear down, as all RBs eventually do, but I don't see it happening this soon.
 
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'moderated said:
Old guy has a career year and everyone expects him to repeat. He won't get the same amount of touches this season.90 carries/420 yards65 rec/540 yards6 total td's
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He had a career year because the Saints used him. Used him very effectively.What will change?
 
Has any RB with 173 touches the previous season, and is forecasted to probably come in at the same level ever had a higher ADP? I would venture to say that in most leagues last season, Sproles went undrafted or was secured with a throwaway late round pick. Now, we’re seeing Sproles firmly entrenched in Round 3.

Four things concern me greatly about Sproles…he’s not on my draftboard.

1) I’m stunned by how the banishment of Sean Payton is being overlooked by those projecting Sproles. Do I think the New Orleans offense falls apart? No, Drew Brees is too good. But Sproles was and is still a situational weapon. What Peyton was terrific at, and this applies to Reggie Bush as well was making the best use of a diverse wild-card weapon out of the backfield. Much like a counter puncher in boxing, Sproles was the Saints counter-punch underneath to compliment big downfield passing threats like Colston, Graham, Meachem or a speedy deep threat like Henderson. While Payton did spend a decent amount of time in the press box last year due to his injury, his involvement with the team was still intense. Do I know or believe that Pete Carmichael will simply be able to slide right in? Not saying he can’t but I do think it’s a tall order for him to be as good as Payton’s been.

2) The Saints ran 1117 offensive plays last year. While the Saints have always fared well in the statistic, the 1117 number is a significant enough outlier since Brees/Payton came to town

a. 2010 – 1067

b. 2009 – 1032

c. 2008 – 1047

d. 2007 – 1060

This represents an average of 1052 (rounded up)/year… or about 6% less than what they ran in 2011. Now I also went back 10 years…the 1117 number is the most number of offensive plays any team has run in that period. Now there were teams that were in the high 1000 area…but none cleared 1100. So if you assume a 6% decline across the board for all Saints just based on amount of opportunity, as it applies to Sproles – that would represent a 79 YFS decrease season over season. Now I’m not suggesting that statistical production is linear…but what I am suggesting is that one of the reasons why the Saints offensive juggernaut posted such incredible numbers particularly in the passing game was because of the amount of opportunity. I mean their previous 4 years average of 1052 is more than likely a Top 5…perhaps Top 3 number in the NFL over that period of time – it’s not a slouch number. But the 1117 is outrageous and it contributed to the big numbers all-around.

3) How much better can Brees get? 5476 Passing Yards = NFL Record. 71.2% Completion Rate = NFL Record. 46 TD’s = best mark of Brees career by 12 TD’s! 8.34 YPA = 2nd best figure of Brees’ career. Brees is going to be great in 2012 – is he going to be ridiculously record setting great again though? Part of the reason for Brees attaining the record he did in the amount of attempts he did because Sean Payton puts his foot on your throat and stomps. In their last 6 games, the Saints won by an average of 20.5 PPG, including 3 victories by 25 points or more. Despite the hefty margin of victory, Brees averaged 39.2 pass attempts/game…this was not an outfit ‘shutting it down’ with the game outcome in hand. Will Joe Vitt and Pete Carmichael follow suit? It certainly is possible. They’ve got a ginormous chip on their shoulder for sure. But when we are considering variables for prolific production, given the numbers above and the change at the top…could this affect how much passing the Saints do? Even if Sproles is an RB, if the Saints make more use of the run game in these contests, is Sproles the guy you kill the clock with?

4) Let’s say instead of averaging 6.9 YPC…Sproles only averaged 5.4…still a fantastic figure even for a situational RB. That’s 131 rushing yards right there in terms of a decrease. And even with a passer as great as Brees, given that Brees exceeded his career high in TD’s by 35%...are we feeling good about Sproles ability to replicate his 7 receiving TD’s? He only had 2 on the ground…I know his end of year numbers look real good 1313/9. Those numbers are 2nd round value. But at the end of the day, I simply feel that people are underestimating the decline, or downside that Sproles represents. And that’s not to say, Sproles won’t still be a dynamic threat for the Saints that makes them feel like they got an incredible FA bargain once again. But the path to 1050/6 seems so crystal clear, so right there for the taking and in Round 3…when you are still really trying to draft for upside? I don’t think there is any more to explore with Sproles. You can’t be better than Sproles was, than the Saints offense was than it was in 2011

Prediction: 92 Rushes, 479 Rushing Yards, 3 TD’s; 75 Receptions, 596 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.

 
While he won't replicate last season, one thing I noticed was that Sproles is incredibly explosive (I'd argue one of the fastest RBs in the NFL from a pure acceleration standpoint). He was also often utilized on 3rd downs and Brees started developing a pretty quick check down rapport with Sproles as well. Sproles is the rare type of RB to take a catch underneath for 3-4 yards on a 3rd & 7 and turn it into a possible 1st down conversion every time.

Also don't forget that the Saints are still an explosive offense with a multitude of options, often forcing a LB to try and cover Sproles or get 5-6 in the box to defend against a Sproles draw play.

As for my TDs, all it takes is a player to go down at the 1 yard line on say a 15 yard run or a 13 yard swing pass (which Sproles did at least once last year that I remember seeing in NFL Game Rewind) to change a total.

75 carries for 420 yards (5.6 YPC) with 3 TD. 72 catches for 634 yards (8.8 YPR) and 4 TD. Turns a couple big plays that last year get him tackled at the 1-3 yard line into TDs instead.

 
Sproles is an outstanding player for that offense. He's a perfect fit and he'll continue to do what he did last season as long as he stays healthy. People discounting that fact because of age are missing a true gem.

My big concern about him is does he have the frame to withstand the punishment that he will incur from the way he's used? Returning kicks and being lit up by big LB after catching a short pass takes a tremendous toll. I'm just not so sure he can stay healthy. The numbers last season are not an aberration, but him playing in 16 games may be.

 
'HurryUpSundays said:
Worth a 2nd rounder in a ppr league that gives 1 point for 25 return yards?
Click to expand...
According to Roto's projections Sproles would finish around RB6 in that format, so yes, I would definitely take him in the second round. He would actually be in the argument for a first-round pick o.0That's not even with crazy projections ... 500 rush, 600 receive, 80 rec. I don't see him getting 80 rec again but even with 20 less than that he's still easily a second rounder in your format.
 
I just got him as the 16th RB off the board in my 10 team start 2 QB league. Didn't think he should have been there that late but who am I to argue? With the need for 2 QBs there always seems to be a few studs who fall farther than they should. At least I hope he is a stud again this year.

 
Full disclosure - when I began to really get into draft preparations about a month ago, I had Sproles as a total bust this year, as opposed to last season.

Now? I am fully on board. What changed? That offense is going to keep giving him the ball as much as possible. Even if the receptions come down, he still is a safe pick in a PPR league.

And although he's going mid to late second, that works in a PPR. My first few picks, I want safe. Drafts aren't necessarily won in the first few rounds, but they can definitely be lost.

Buying all the way on Sproles. Imagine getting a top RB (Foster, McCoy, Rice, then CJ?) and Sproles as your RB2? That's lethal.

 
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'OnTheReg said:
And although he's going mid to late second, that works in a PPR. My first few picks, I want safe. Drafts aren't necessarily won in the first few rounds, but they can definitely be lost.Buying all the way on Sproles. Imagine getting a top RB (Foster, McCoy, Rice, then CJ?) and Sproles as your RB2? That's lethal.
Click to expand...
I am usually on board when it comes to selling a guy after a career year, especially when it's a RB the age of Sproles. However, I am not even thinking about selling Sproles for the reason you listed above. He seems like an incredibly safe pick. He has not missed a game in 4 years, is almost a certain lock for 4-5 catches a game, and there looks to be no reason that will change this year, or for the next 2-3 years.I understand that in dynasty leagues it is important to move RBs before their value tanks usually at 28+ years old. But, it is also important to win now, and Sproles as a RB2 is pure gold in PPR.
 
'Andrew Garda said:
'moderated said:
'Ghost Rider said:
29 is not old.
Click to expand...
For an nfl RB it's equivalent to being a 65-70 year old normal person. They can still perform but are way past their prime.In PPR he can be a servicable #2rb, but in non -PPR I wouldn't touch him.
Click to expand...
That's been debunked pretty thoroughly by now. Depends on the back.
Click to expand...
Pretty good for a 65 year old Barry Sanders to get over 2300 yards rushing receiving (29)Excellent for a 70 year old Emmitt Smith to get over 1500 yards rushing receiving (30)Incredible for a 75 year old Curtis Martin to get over 1900 yards rushing receiving (31).
 
In my opinion Sproles is the typical over-correction in terms of ranking a guy a season after he came from nowhere. A lot of things need to break right for him to match the year he had last season and even if he does you paid that price to get him.

 
This is the type of guy I like to avoid, he's 29 years old coming off a career year. He's not going to flat out WIN you any games and there is comparable value where he is being drafted.

 
'Eminence said:
This is the type of guy I like to avoid, he's 29 years old coming off a career year. He's not going to flat out WIN you any games and there is comparable value where he is being drafted.
Click to expand...
I don't really disagree with this, but we have to examine the reasons for the breakout and judge how those reasons affect value going forward.Sproles broke out so big because he changed teams. The Saints recognized Sproles' strengths and used him in his most efficient role. That is going to be the same this year, so Sproles has a legit chance at approaching last year's numbers, IMO.Sproles is kind of like Wes Welker: each has a unique skill set that their current teams are efficiently exploiting. If either player changed teams, it would be hard to project similar production.
 
'Eminence said:
This is the type of guy I like to avoid, he's 29 years old coming off a career year. He's not going to flat out WIN you any games and there is comparable value where he is being drafted.
Click to expand...
If you watched him.. at all, you would see that your "career year" implication was due to him actually being used for the first time in his career. Only more of this in store this year.I love how someone having a good year is invariably used against them in this forum. Good schtick.
 
'matuski said:
'Eminence said:
This is the type of guy I like to avoid, he's 29 years old coming off a career year. He's not going to flat out WIN you any games and there is comparable value where he is being drafted.
Click to expand...
If you watched him.. at all, you would see that your "career year" implication was due to him actually being used for the first time in his career. Only more of this in store this year.I love how someone having a good year is invariably used against them in this forum. Good schtick.
Click to expand...
Yea. Sproles has been under utilized his entire career, he puts up a monster year, and he's avoidable and used goods. In our format, he was RB3 last year - he WON his owner multiple weeks. His number could go down, they could also go up with NO wide receiving core being weaker. He's electric, in an electric offense. I'm in.Edit: Last game of the season for NO, Sproles and his overused body: 15 catches for 118 yards and a TD.
 
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I think it's a great point that whenever someone has a great year, all of a sudden everyone comes out of the woodwork to discredit that guy. Sproles is legit and taylor made for the Saints offense.

 
My projections for Sproles are the same as last year, less 10%. He finished as the RB6 in our 0.5 PPR league, and I still project him to finish in the top 12 RBs as a solid RB1 in PPR. He only had 1 "clunker" game last season...every other game he was productive.

 
I see Brees relying even more on him this season. I wouldn't worry about the lack of pre season touches. He already knows the offense and has chemistry with Bree's.

 
'DiStefano said:
'Andrew Garda said:
'moderated said:
'Ghost Rider said:
29 is not old.
Click to expand...
For an nfl RB it's equivalent to being a 65-70 year old normal person. They can still perform but are way past their prime.In PPR he can be a servicable #2rb, but in non -PPR I wouldn't touch him.
Click to expand...
That's been debunked pretty thoroughly by now. Depends on the back.
Click to expand...
Pretty good for a 65 year old Barry Sanders to get over 2300 yards rushing receiving (29)Excellent for a 70 year old Emmitt Smith to get over 1500 yards rushing receiving (30)Incredible for a 75 year old Curtis Martin to get over 1900 yards rushing receiving (31).
Click to expand...
Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Darren Sproles... Which one is not like the others.
 
'Mr Rodgers neighborhood said:
'DiStefano said:
'Andrew Garda said:
'moderated said:
'Ghost Rider said:
29 is not old.
Click to expand...
For an nfl RB it's equivalent to being a 65-70 year old normal person. They can still perform but are way past their prime.In PPR he can be a servicable #2rb, but in non -PPR I wouldn't touch him.
Click to expand...
That's been debunked pretty thoroughly by now. Depends on the back.
Click to expand...
Pretty good for a 65 year old Barry Sanders to get over 2300 yards rushing receiving (29)Excellent for a 70 year old Emmitt Smith to get over 1500 yards rushing receiving (30)Incredible for a 75 year old Curtis Martin to get over 1900 yards rushing receiving (31).
Click to expand...
Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Darren Sproles... Which one is not like the others.
Click to expand...
Sproles....he has hardly any tread wear compared to the others.
 
'Routilla said:
What exactly is the "knee issue" being reported?
Click to expand...
They are being safe. He would play if needed. "If I had to play, I could," Sproles said. "But this is the thing. They don't want to rush me right now. They see it as preseason games so there's no use in risking it.""We're doing exactly this year what we did last year (on special teams)," McMahon said. "I think he caught a fair catch in the last (preseason) game. So his resume speaks for itself. He's really special. We're really comfortable with him (as McMahon chuckles). I know you are, too."
 
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