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A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: A.J. Green Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Dominant elite ability and he has no true threat for targets. Already IMO has the best deep ball skills in the game. By all accounts is working his tail off to get even better. Scary. Numbers will most definitely improve in his second year. The sky is the limit. My WR2 in dynasty and could finish there in redraft.

80 catches

1400 yards

10 TDs

 
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'doowain said:
Dominant elite ability and he has no true threat for targets. Already IMO has the best deep ball skills in the game. By all accounts is working his tail off to get even better. Scary. Numbers will most definitely improve in his second year. The sky is the limit. My WR2 in dynasty and could finish there in redraft. 80 catches1400 yards10 TDs
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I think he has more catches and touchdowns. Yardage seems about right. I gave up the farm to acquire him in dynasty (Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, and Kenny Britt). So obviously I really like his talent. Plus he's got clean character, wants to be a leader, has a QB to grow with and as you mentioned he has no other real target threats.90 Catches1400 yards12 touchdowns
 
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'Sabertooth said:
'doowain said:
I gave up the farm to acquire him in dynasty (Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, and Kenny Britt).
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Man, I don't want to derail the topic too much but that was a very bold trade on your part :unsure: I too think he's going to be very good this year. His production as a rookie on the redraft teams I acquired him on this past season was great. Assuming AJ Dalton improves along with him, he could put up scary numbers.90/1300/14 is what I would expect out of him.
 
I can't say this will be a non-biased post. Own Green in my 10 team PPR league and I gave up quite a bit in a trade for him last year. Think he's going to blossom into an elite receiver this year.

I'm not good at projections but I think between 80-90 catches seems right, he could even nab 100 but don't see it happening. I'll go 13 TDs with 1400 yards too. This guy is going to be good for a long time, really bright future for him.

 
You guys projecting 12-14 TDs for Green must be pretty high on Andy Dalton. I love Green, but still see Cinci as a work in progress offensively, and don't think they'll be near explosive enough to produce a 12+ TD WR. The Bengals will still want to pound the ball if possible.

85 - 1275 - 8

Green is damn good, but I don't see the Bengals morphing into New Orleans or New England Midwest any time soon.

 
I think he is a stud already with a great future. Didn't he slip later in the year? He also will be double covered more. Sophmore slump? I am scared to burn too high of a pick on him.

 
I agree he'll probably be in the 80's or low 90's for catches. Probably around 1200 yds and 8-10 TDs. A top 10 guy but I don't think he's going to put up a completely dominant season.

 
'Coeur de Lion said:
You guys projecting 12-14 TDs for Green must be pretty high on Andy Dalton. I love Green, but still see Cinci as a work in progress offensively, and don't think they'll be near explosive enough to produce a 12+ TD WR. The Bengals will still want to pound the ball if possible.85 - 1275 - 8Green is damn good, but I don't see the Bengals morphing into New Orleans or New England Midwest any time soon.
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I'm with ya on this. I like Green a ton, but just don't think that he is too likely to hit 12+ TDs given the confines of the situation in CIN right now. This could change quickly though, I will admit. I like your projection pretty well.
 
'mlball77 said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
You guys projecting 12-14 TDs for Green must be pretty high on Andy Dalton. I love Green, but still see Cinci as a work in progress offensively, and don't think they'll be near explosive enough to produce a 12+ TD WR. The Bengals will still want to pound the ball if possible.85 - 1275 - 8Green is damn good, but I don't see the Bengals morphing into New Orleans or New England Midwest any time soon.
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I'm with ya on this. I like Green a ton, but just don't think that he is too likely to hit 12+ TDs given the confines of the situation in CIN right now. This could change quickly though, I will admit. I like your projection pretty well.
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I'm on board with this as well. Good numbers, especially for a second year guy, but right now, I'm seeing that offense as a bit limiting to his production. Though he has a very high ceiling if Dalton and CIN can continue growing at a very rapid rate.
 
I worry about AJ Green in 2012 for the following reasons:

1) Andy Dalton – His YPA when he threw at a target other than AJ Green was 5.9. I always worry about a passing attack when a QB struggles to get the ball downfield. He was effective at getting the ball downfield to Green, but really not much else. Can AJ overcome the certain attention and focus he’ll garner from opposing defenses on a consistent basis?

2) BenJarvus Green-Ellis – In 510 career carries, The Lawfirm has 4 carries of 20+ yards. In an offense where defenses were completely focused on stopping the passing game. In 2011, he averaged 3.7 YPC when his QB threw for 5200+ yards. On the field, is this guy an improvement over Cedric Benson? His lack of fumbles notwithstanding, this seemed an uninspired FA signing and one that doesn’t strike me as one that should provide much net impact.

3) Who’ll take the focus away from AJ? – Green will always be compared side-by-side to Julio Jones who was drafted 2 slots behind him. Julio has a bonafide #1 WR (Roddy White) and a HOF TE still producing at a big time level (Tony Gonzalez) to shoulder the mantle of individual and offensive unit expectations that his team faces. A big time albeit declining RB (Michael Turner) also offers a level of offensive diversity that should create additional passing game opportunities. In CIN, I feel there is AJ…and that’s it. And while some may feel he can be a target whore and get his production that way – I'm concerned that all these factors combined could wind up being too much to overcome.

4) Cincy’s defense – If I’m Marvin Lewis, with a burgeoning wrecking crew of a defense…am I going to be throwing the ball a lot? If a conservative run/pass ratio is 45:55, I could see the Bengals being ultra-conservative on offense and maybe scraping 500 pass attempts together. Dalton averaged 30 attempts/game in wins; 35 in losses. Say what you will about the Bengals chances in 2012, but if their defense continues to show well and I like a lot of their personnel (not to mention Lewis/Zimmer), I might be taking the air out of the ball or at least not bombing away.

Listen, I’m not saying the guy is going to go all Charles Rogers on us. But I don’t think Green’s ceiling is all that high for 2012. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same that we saw in 2011, perhaps with a slight slide back as the Bengals work to find alternative weapons in their offense as teams clamp down on the one player who can really hurt them.

Prediction: 69 Receptions, 1024 Receiving Yards, 8 TD’s; 4 Rushes 30 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 
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'Coeur de Lion said:
You guys projecting 12-14 TDs for Green must be pretty high on Andy Dalton.
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I agree with this completely. I made a note in the Vincent Jackson thread that top end WRs typically get around 40% of a QBs TDs. This happened last year with Calvin (40%), Fitz (38%), Wallace (38%), Green, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall.So, giving Green 12-14 TDs means you're expecting Dalton to throw for 30-35 TDs. Yeah....I just don't see that. If it's true, though, I'll get my #1 QB in the 10th round and be damn happy about it!
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
You guys projecting 12-14 TDs for Green must be pretty high on Andy Dalton. I love Green, but still see Cinci as a work in progress offensively, and don't think they'll be near explosive enough to produce a 12+ TD WR. The Bengals will still want to pound the ball if possible.85 - 1275 - 8Green is damn good, but I don't see the Bengals morphing into New Orleans or New England Midwest any time soon.
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This is pretty much more realtistic then my prediction i'll admit. I still think he reaches double digit TDs. The double teaming and Dalton's possible sophmore slump are things to take into consideration but so is the fact that Green has been training very hard in the off season according to reports. He'll also have a full round of OTAs, mini camps, and a full training camp to hone his skills. I just don't see how he doesn't improve on what he did last year.
 
He was their only weapon last year, teams clamped down on him, and he still produced top 15 numbers with a rookie QB in his rookie year and no offseason.

85-1300-10

 
'Coeur de Lion said:
You guys projecting 12-14 TDs for Green must be pretty high on Andy Dalton. I love Green, but still see Cinci as a work in progress offensively, and don't think they'll be near explosive enough to produce a 12+ TD WR. The Bengals will still want to pound the ball if possible.85 - 1275 - 8Green is damn good, but I don't see the Bengals morphing into New Orleans or New England Midwest any time soon.
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Dalton played good last season.
 
Kids broke 1000 yards as a rookie without an offseason, with a rookie QB. I think he will be even better. His talent is in the Larry Fitzgerald region.

 
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.

I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.

Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.

 
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'sspunisher said:
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.
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I'd rather split money on Green and White, both are established #1 WR's..WhiteGreenJulioBryantnot sure why you'd include Bryant,he's clearly the worst of the group, he hasn't shown anything but *potential* so far..Dallas is too flakey to count on week in,week out..the only one I'd want in the Cowboys' offense is the reliable Jason Witten. you can find a bakers dozen of WR's who are, or who will be better, than Bryant.The talent is there, but there seems to be something missing with him..dont' worry about who'll take pressure of of AJ, Gresham will step up, Law Firm has great hands and will probably catch a lot more balls than people think..Only thing that worries me about White and Jones is the new OC in Atlanta, Dirk Koetter..Jax was the model of futility under Koetter , and I'm not sure he's going to make Atl's offense better,I'm convinced he's going to make it worse..
 
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'Tanner9919 said:
'sspunisher said:
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.
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I'd rather split money on Green and White, both are established #1 WR's..WhiteGreenJulioBryantnot sure why you'd include Bryant,he's clearly the worst of the group, he hasn't shown anything but *potential* so far..Dallas is too flakey to count on week in,week out..the only one I'd want in the Cowboys' offense is the reliable Jason Witten. you can find a bakers dozen of WR's who are, or who will be better, than Bryant.The talent is there, but there seems to be something missing with him..dont' worry about who'll take pressure of of AJ, Gresham will step up, Law Firm has great hands and will probably catch a lot more balls than people think..Only thing that worries me about White and Jones is the new OC in Atlanta, Dirk Koetter..Jax was the model of futility under Koetter , and I'm not sure he's going to make Atl's offense better,I'm convinced he's going to make it worse..
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Old reliable Jason Witten averaged a whopping 8 points per game during the last 5 games of the season.
 
'lbouchard said:
'Tanner9919 said:
'sspunisher said:
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.
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I'd rather split money on Green and White, both are established #1 WR's..WhiteGreenJulioBryantnot sure why you'd include Bryant,he's clearly the worst of the group, he hasn't shown anything but *potential* so far..Dallas is too flakey to count on week in,week out..the only one I'd want in the Cowboys' offense is the reliable Jason Witten. you can find a bakers dozen of WR's who are, or who will be better, than Bryant.The talent is there, but there seems to be something missing with him..dont' worry about who'll take pressure of of AJ, Gresham will step up, Law Firm has great hands and will probably catch a lot more balls than people think..Only thing that worries me about White and Jones is the new OC in Atlanta, Dirk Koetter..Jax was the model of futility under Koetter , and I'm not sure he's going to make Atl's offense better,I'm convinced he's going to make it worse..
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Old reliable Jason Witten averaged a whopping 8 points per game during the last 5 games of the season.
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You illustrate his original point though. Nothing is a given in Dallas. Except maybe Romo.
 
dalton and marvin scare the crap outta me. also the running game will be junk.

id say like 75/1200/9 with decent upside to get to 12+ tds if dalton can luckbox a few bombs to guy when hes wide open.

 
'lbouchard said:
'Tanner9919 said:
'sspunisher said:
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.
Click to expand...
I'd rather split money on Green and White, both are established #1 WR's..WhiteGreenJulioBryantnot sure why you'd include Bryant,he's clearly the worst of the group, he hasn't shown anything but *potential* so far..Dallas is too flakey to count on week in,week out..the only one I'd want in the Cowboys' offense is the reliable Jason Witten. you can find a bakers dozen of WR's who are, or who will be better, than Bryant.The talent is there, but there seems to be something missing with him..dont' worry about who'll take pressure of of AJ, Gresham will step up, Law Firm has great hands and will probably catch a lot more balls than people think..Only thing that worries me about White and Jones is the new OC in Atlanta, Dirk Koetter..Jax was the model of futility under Koetter , and I'm not sure he's going to make Atl's offense better,I'm convinced he's going to make it worse..
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Old reliable Jason Witten averaged a whopping 8 points per game during the last 5 games of the season.
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and I think his numbers will be better without Lrob in the fold in Dallas.As for AJ GreenSky is the limit for this kid, Im not worried about his sophmore slump, Im more worried about Daltons
 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'lbouchard said:
'Tanner9919 said:
'sspunisher said:
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.
Click to expand...
I'd rather split money on Green and White, both are established #1 WR's..WhiteGreenJulioBryantnot sure why you'd include Bryant,he's clearly the worst of the group, he hasn't shown anything but *potential* so far..Dallas is too flakey to count on week in,week out..the only one I'd want in the Cowboys' offense is the reliable Jason Witten. you can find a bakers dozen of WR's who are, or who will be better, than Bryant.The talent is there, but there seems to be something missing with him..dont' worry about who'll take pressure of of AJ, Gresham will step up, Law Firm has great hands and will probably catch a lot more balls than people think..Only thing that worries me about White and Jones is the new OC in Atlanta, Dirk Koetter..Jax was the model of futility under Koetter , and I'm not sure he's going to make Atl's offense better,I'm convinced he's going to make it worse..
Click to expand...
Old reliable Jason Witten averaged a whopping 8 points per game during the last 5 games of the season.
Click to expand...
and I think his numbers will be better without Lrob in the fold in Dallas.As for AJ GreenSky is the limit for this kid, Im not worried about his sophmore slump, Im more worried about Daltons
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I think Dez is the one who is going to explode. I have AJG, Dez, and Britt in my main league, and I wouldn't trade my WR core for any one else's.
 
'lbouchard said:
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'lbouchard said:
'Tanner9919 said:
'sspunisher said:
I'm finding that AJ Green is in the same tier as Roddy White, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant in redrafts. Choosing between these 4 is much harder than I thought it'd be.I give the slight advantage to Green but a part of me worries about that QB sophmore slump that's been plaguing the league lately. While there are no indications that Dalton might regress, I'd be a bit more comfortable with a proven QB at the helm. I'll probably split my money on Green and Bryant in a lot of drafts as they are more likely to break 10 TDs than Julio and White, but Julio did out-TD Green in far fewer games last year. Roddy only comes into the equation in PPR leagues obviously, as he has 100 catch potential.Very interesting tier that I'll be studying closely the next few weeks.
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I'd rather split money on Green and White, both are established #1 WR's..WhiteGreenJulioBryantnot sure why you'd include Bryant,he's clearly the worst of the group, he hasn't shown anything but *potential* so far..Dallas is too flakey to count on week in,week out..the only one I'd want in the Cowboys' offense is the reliable Jason Witten. you can find a bakers dozen of WR's who are, or who will be better, than Bryant.The talent is there, but there seems to be something missing with him..dont' worry about who'll take pressure of of AJ, Gresham will step up, Law Firm has great hands and will probably catch a lot more balls than people think..Only thing that worries me about White and Jones is the new OC in Atlanta, Dirk Koetter..Jax was the model of futility under Koetter , and I'm not sure he's going to make Atl's offense better,I'm convinced he's going to make it worse..
Click to expand...
Old reliable Jason Witten averaged a whopping 8 points per game during the last 5 games of the season.
Click to expand...
and I think his numbers will be better without Lrob in the fold in Dallas.As for AJ GreenSky is the limit for this kid, Im not worried about his sophmore slump, Im more worried about Daltons
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I think Dez is the one who is going to explode. I have AJG, Dez, and Britt in my main league, and I wouldn't trade my WR core for any one else's.
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Britt and Dez are very immature.
 
Green is facing two major headwinds - his QB and the coverage he'll attract. Can Dalton get up to 25 TDs, a 25% increase from last year? If so, Green should get his 10 TDs. If Dalton stays at 20, you're looking at 7 or 8.

And can he thrive while being triple teamed? IMO that's still an unknown.

We all know "Exceptional talent & an excellent situation can = greatness". He only meets half of that equation.

 
'Jersey Jammer said:
Green is facing two major headwinds - his QB and the coverage he'll attract. Can Dalton get up to 25 TDs, a 25% increase from last year? If so, Green should get his 10 TDs. If Dalton stays at 20, you're looking at 7 or 8.And can he thrive while being triple teamed? IMO that's still an unknown.We all know "Exceptional talent & an excellent situation can = greatness". He only meets half of that equation.
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Green was already being double teamed and bracket covered. He's not going to be triple teamed. The only WR in the NFL who is triple teamed is Megatron inside the RZ with gunner coverage. As talented as Green is, he's not at that level.
 
'lbouchard said:
'Jersey Jammer said:
Green is facing two major headwinds - his QB and the coverage he'll attract. Can Dalton get up to 25 TDs, a 25% increase from last year? If so, Green should get his 10 TDs. If Dalton stays at 20, you're looking at 7 or 8.And can he thrive while being triple teamed? IMO that's still an unknown.We all know "Exceptional talent & an excellent situation can = greatness". He only meets half of that equation.
Click to expand...
Green was already being double teamed and bracket covered. He's not going to be triple teamed. The only WR in the NFL who is triple teamed is Megatron inside the RZ with gunner coverage. As talented as Green is, he's not at that level.
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There is no WR in the NFL who gets triple coverage. Not even Megatron.
 
'jurb26 said:
'lbouchard said:
'Jersey Jammer said:
Green is facing two major headwinds - his QB and the coverage he'll attract. Can Dalton get up to 25 TDs, a 25% increase from last year? If so, Green should get his 10 TDs. If Dalton stays at 20, you're looking at 7 or 8.

And can he thrive while being triple teamed? IMO that's still an unknown.

We all know "Exceptional talent & an excellent situation can = greatness". He only meets half of that equation.
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Green was already being double teamed and bracket covered. He's not going to be triple teamed. The only WR in the NFL who is triple teamed is Megatron inside the RZ with gunner coverage. As talented as Green is, he's not at that level.
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There is no WR in the NFL who gets triple coverage. Not even Megatron.
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Megatron occasionally gets triple coverage in the RZVs the Cowboys: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAkmxoWvHjc

Picture vs the Saints (only shows 2, but a safety is on his side of the field as well): https://twitter.com/#!/ChrisWesseling/media/slideshow?url=http%3A%2F%2Fyfrog.com%2Fnwjmnxj

 
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...

For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.

Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16

Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7

Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7

So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.

I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.

 
'wdcrob said:
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.
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You're so off on your evaluation of him it's scary. You list those guys BEST years. Not their rookie season with a rookie QB throwing to them with NO offseason. So yes. You will regret this.
 
'doowain said:
'wdcrob said:
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.
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You're so off on your evaluation of him it's scary. You list those guys BEST years. Not their rookie season with a rookie QB throwing to them with NO offseason. So yes. You will regret this.
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Doowain I like you...you are a s**t-stirrer.
 
'wdcrob said:
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.
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Green is already a better WR than Braylon ever was. Have you seen his ball skills?
 
'doowain said:
'wdcrob said:
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.
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You're so off on your evaluation of him it's scary. You list those guys BEST years. Not their rookie season with a rookie QB throwing to them with NO offseason. So yes. You will regret this.
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It only took reading this sentance to know he doesn't really know what he's talking about with Green;
Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.
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Basically, he was wrong on his evaluation of Green coming out of college and is still too stuborn to change his mind about it now despite a mountain of evidence to suggest otherwise.
 
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'wdcrob said:
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.
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What is it you don't like about this guy long-term, aside from the QB? I remember you had this firm stance going into his rookie season when you dealt 1.2 for 1.8, Simpson, 2.8 in HyperActive4, stating you thought Simpson was the better WR in Cinci. I'm just wondering what metric you are weighting that I'm not seeing, as to me he is being discussed exactly where he should be.
 
'wdcrob said:
Yikes -- these projections are... optimistic. I'm sure I'll regret this post later, but...For starters Green has a long way to go before he's in the same category with Fitz, Calvin, etc. Coming into the league I thought he had more in common with Braylon Edwards, Germane Crowell and Roy Williams than those guys and it'll take more than 65-1047-7 to change my mind.Braylon Edwards (07/08) 80-1289-16Roy Williams (06/07) 82-1362-7Germane Crowell (99/00) 88-1338-7So in addition to still not liking his long-term prospects I think he's got problems this year. IMO Dalton's not as good as people think he is either and Gresham's still going to get his targets.I'll go with 75-1105-7 and make a WAG that by the end of the season there are at least some people who think things just didn't look quite right with Green this year in terms of becoming a Fitz/Calvin type talent.
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I'm also curious about what you are seeing as a long term negative. I see a guy with an absolutely elite catch radius who doesn't seem to have any of the character / work ethic issues that have been present with other recent top WR prospects -- and the work ethic involved in learning how to attack coverages and read defenses is most of what seperates Roy Williams from Larry Fitzgerald. Physically he fits the mold of "dominant downfield receiver" and if Dalton matures and can develop into a good QB the sky's the limit IMO. Dynasty-wise he's in the tier right behind Calvin and very worthy of that status.I think your projection for this year is realistic; people need to remember that even Fitz only gets 1400/10+ when he has a HOF-level QB throwing to him. Dalton making the step up right away from "good for a rookie game manager" to "good fantasy-friendly QB" is no sure thing.
 
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'JPeso said:
What is it you don't like about this guy long-term, aside from the QB? I remember you had this firm stance going into his rookie season when you dealt 1.2 for 1.8, Simpson, 2.8 in HyperActive4, stating you thought Simpson was the better WR in Cinci. I'm just wondering what metric you are weighting that I'm not seeing, as to me he is being discussed exactly where he should be.
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Nice memory. Obviously I wouldn't do that one again. Win some, lose some.I just think he's limited -- with that hyper long/lean build he's not going to be quick in small spaces or a great route runner and similarly he's pretty slight, so I don't see him winning physical battles all over the field. And IMO doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to win deep all the time. So he's basically getting 'open' solely through his length. That's a nice thing to be able to do, but it's not enough IMO and I think that defenses will figure him out over time. The point I was making with the comparisons above is that for some reason guys like him can put one or two good seasons together, but don't seem to pan out into the uberstud people are projecting here for Green. Or maybe I'm wrong, and Edwards and Crowell would have been uberstuds if they hadn't gotten hurt? No way to tell.I'm still not super confident about my take on him and I'm on the island by myself on this one, so I know I could be wrong. But I just don't see him taking the jump to a dominant NFL or FF #1.
 
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'wdcrob said:
I just think he's limited -- with that hyper long/lean build he's not going to be quick in small spaces or a great route runner and similarly he's pretty slight, so I don't see him winning physical battles all over the field. And he doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to win deep all the time. So I think that defenses will figure him out over time.
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There nothing about this that is true though. OK, so he is lean. That part is true. Green has elite quickness in small spaces. This was on display many times in college and many times last year. Perhaps the best example of it was the screen pass he caught vs. St. L last year. He caught that ball in a highly congested area and used a rare combination of burst and agility to manuver out of that traffic, take the ball 20 yds down field and nearly to the endzone. Green has great speed (low 4.4 range) but better yet, he plays faster than his 40 time. He was consistently behind defenses his entire carrer at UG and he was consistently behind defenses his rookie season in the NFL. What held him back was Dalton sturggling with his deep passes, causing Green to adjust on many of the catches. He was already a decent route runner as a rookie last year and by all reports this off-season, Green is making it his top priority to polish his route running. There is absolutely nothing to suggest he will not become a great route runner. He was in college and ran a full route tree. He was very good at it as a rookie in the NFL and he is working his tail off to further fine toon that ability right now. NFL DC's and defenders are a smart bunch, eventually they will figure out everyone's strengths and weakness. That is why players evolove and so do game plans. It's funny that you say Green can so easily be "figured out." Last year many said Clev. DB Haden had him figured out seeign that Haden by and large shut Green down in their 1st meeting. Green took advantage of a blown coverage for a big TD, but otherwise wasn't a huge factor. Green then went out and tourched Haden and the Brown's in his second meeting with 3/110. Having watched that game I also know he was open at least 2 other times deep but was simply missed by Dalton. Seems as though Green had figured something out.
 
'wdcrob said:
I just think he's limited -- with that hyper long/lean build he's not going to be quick in small spaces or a great route runner and similarly he's pretty slight, so I don't see him winning physical battles all over the field. And IMO doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to win deep all the time. So he's basically getting 'open' solely through his length. That's a nice thing to be able to do, but it's not enough IMO and I think that defenses will figure him out over time.
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I don't think, personally, a lack of elite phone-booth quickness precludes him from being a great route runner. There are lots of ways to create separation by setting up and disguising routes and throwing fakes. Route running is a learned skill. Also, Green's speed / quickness aren't, IMO, really negatives. They're just not totally elite; he looks pretty smooth and fluid to me for a guy his size. I think his jumping ability, body control, hands, and concentration are what will continue to allow him to make plays in coverage downfield. I usually try to avoid hyperbole, but from what I have seen (admittedly mostly youtube highlights) the guy he looks like most to me, in terms of build, style, and strengths, is Randy Moss (minus the extra gear).
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
I think your projection for this year is realistic; people need to remember that even Fitz only gets 1400/10+ when he has a HOF-level QB throwing to him. Dalton making the step up right away from "good for a rookie game manager" to "good fantasy-friendly QB" is no sure thing.
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Fitzgerald had 1400 yards 8 TD's last year with the fantastic duo of Kolb / Skelton :confused: Floor, 75 receptions, 15.6 YPR, 1170 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

Ceiling, 90 receptions, 15.6 YPR, 1404 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns

Edit: I'd be betting closer to the floor stats, I just threw the ceiling out there because at season's end it wouldn't be a shock that he hit those stats. He'll have a year like the ceiling stats indicate within the next 2-4 years.

 
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The thing is is that Green is actually really fast and has great quickness. But he looks so smooth and fluid on film that you don't recognize it until he's past the D.

 
'jurb26 said:
'wdcrob said:
I just think he's limited -- with that hyper long/lean build he's not going to be quick in small spaces or a great route runner and similarly he's pretty slight, so I don't see him winning physical battles all over the field. And he doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to win deep all the time. So I think that defenses will figure him out over time.
Click to expand...
There nothing about this that is true though. OK, so he is lean. That part is true. Green has elite quickness in small spaces. This was on display many times in college and many times last year. Perhaps the best example of it was the screen pass he caught vs. St. L last year. He caught that ball in a highly congested area and used a rare combination of burst and agility to manuver out of that traffic, take the ball 20 yds down field and nearly to the endzone. Green has great speed (low 4.4 range) but better yet, he plays faster than his 40 time. He was consistently behind defenses his entire carrer at UG and he was consistently behind defenses his rookie season in the NFL. What held him back was Dalton sturggling with his deep passes, causing Green to adjust on many of the catches. He was already a decent route runner as a rookie last year and by all reports this off-season, Green is making it his top priority to polish his route running. There is absolutely nothing to suggest he will not become a great route runner. He was in college and ran a full route tree. He was very good at it as a rookie in the NFL and he is working his tail off to further fine toon that ability right now. NFL DC's and defenders are a smart bunch, eventually they will figure out everyone's strengths and weakness. That is why players evolove and so do game plans. It's funny that you say Green can so easily be "figured out." Last year many said Clev. DB Haden had him figured out seeign that Haden by and large shut Green down in their 1st meeting. Green took advantage of a blown coverage for a big TD, but otherwise wasn't a huge factor. Green then went out and tourched Haden and the Brown's in his second meeting with 3/110. Having watched that game I also know he was open at least 2 other times deep but was simply missed by Dalton. Seems as though Green had figured something out.
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That is a perfect example. I remember seeing that play in St. Louis and being shocked that he had that quickness. Anyone questioning his ability to burst should watch that highlight.
 
'wdcrob said:
'JPeso said:
What is it you don't like about this guy long-term, aside from the QB? I remember you had this firm stance going into his rookie season when you dealt 1.2 for 1.8, Simpson, 2.8 in HyperActive4, stating you thought Simpson was the better WR in Cinci. I'm just wondering what metric you are weighting that I'm not seeing, as to me he is being discussed exactly where he should be.
Click to expand...
Nice memory. Obviously I wouldn't do that one again. Win some, lose some.I just think he's limited -- with that hyper long/lean build he's not going to be quick in small spaces or a great route runner and similarly he's pretty slight, so I don't see him winning physical battles all over the field. And IMO doesn't have the speed or explosiveness to win deep all the time. So he's basically getting 'open' solely through his length. That's a nice thing to be able to do, but it's not enough IMO and I think that defenses will figure him out over time. The point I was making with the comparisons above is that for some reason guys like him can put one or two good seasons together, but don't seem to pan out into the uberstud people are projecting here for Green. Or maybe I'm wrong, and Edwards and Crowell would have been uberstuds if they hadn't gotten hurt? No way to tell.I'm still not super confident about my take on him and I'm on the island by myself on this one, so I know I could be wrong. But I just don't see him taking the jump to a dominant NFL or FF #1.
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My comment was not to mush your face in your dung on a trade - anyone who trades is bound to make some bad ones. This one was, at the time, one of those confusing ones for me when it went through, and I was wondering how, after what we saw this season, your stance still has not changed. Thanks for the unpack above, we will have to agree to disagree as slim or not this cat won't be held back.Do I think he scores 300 over a number of years? Not necessarily, but I think he has a very safe, saucy floor for the next 12 years.
 
'wdcrob said:
It's lonely on the island. :kicksrock:
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As indicated earlier in this thread, my expectations for Green are a bit higher than yours, but with that said, I don't think your posted projections for Green are unreasonable at all. Admittedly, I don't agree with all of your rationale for such, but 1105 and 7 aren't numbers that make me scratch my head. -For me, where I think the disconnect may be, is that I think Green does have elite upside. I don't think it's his skill set or build that could hold him back... I have such concerns about the overall constraints of the CIN offense and the lack of an elite QB.
 
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