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Brandon Lloyd, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Brandon Lloyd, WR, New England Patriots

Player Page Link: Brandon Lloyd Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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Lloyd is a solid WR with a good skill set the comes to a great situation. By that I mean a Super Bowl contending team where he can settle in as the #3 option and quietly put up solid numbers. I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to put up similar stats to Deion Branch and Ocho Stinko combined last year.

68-980-6 with upside potential for more if he can garner some of Welker and Gronk's targets.

 
Lloyd is a solid WR with a good skill set the comes to a great situation. By that I mean a Super Bowl contending team where he can settle in as the #3 option and quietly put up solid numbers. I do not think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to put up similar stats to Deion Branch and Ocho Stinko combined last year.68-980-6 with upside potential for more if he can garner some of Welker and Gronk's targets.
I hope he doesnt turn into a decoy to open up more space for welker and the Te patrol... IMHO Llyod in open space is more dangerous than welker.. and JMcDaniels turned Llyod into fantasy gold a few years ago... Now with brady... who knows what the upper limit is... One factor holding him back from his bronco numbers are that there are just a lot of hands grabbing for balls in NE... :lmao: Suprised, but in dynasty he seems undervalued.. maybe hes a buy low...
 
Suprised, but in dynasty he seems undervalued.. maybe hes a buy low...
:no: He's a 9 year veteran, and the Patriots are his 6th team. He'll turn 31 prior to the start of this season. His career averages are 35/530/3.5. He's the definition of "journeyman." At best he'll be 4th in the pecking order behind Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. Anyone expecting more than 2 or so years of WR3 production is wildly OVERVALUING him.2010 was an outlier, folks.50 - 750 - 5 seems pretty reasonable. He's a little better than Deion Branch, but I expect a slight regression of passing stats from last year from the league as a whole (NE included).
 
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Sooner or later teams will scheme the shorter passing game and the seams. I think Branch has lost a step and thus there haven't been a lot of weapons on the outside. Lloyd is 2 years removed from a career season and is now parked u again with Josh McDaniels who is going to have a point to prove to a lot of folks this year. Tom Brady is the QB and he has shown in the past a knack for finding talent on the outside alike when Randy Moss was a Patriot. I do not expect Lloyd to be anywhere close to that but it seems reasonable that Lloyd will some have some big games, some avg games, and probably a few duds too.

70/1,050/8 TD but I feel he could have a lot more if things go well in New England. Lloyd will have at least 4-5 100+ yard games and being drafted as the WR25-30 off the board, he offers pretty good value at the WR3 spot and can float as a WR2 some weeks.

 
Suprised, but in dynasty he seems undervalued.. maybe hes a buy low...
:no: He's a 9 year veteran, and the Patriots are his 6th team. He'll turn 31 prior to the start of this season. His career averages are 35/530/3.5. He's the definition of "journeyman." At best he'll be 4th in the pecking order behind Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. Anyone expecting more than 2 or so years of WR3 production is wildly OVERVALUING him.2010 was an outlier, folks.50 - 750 - 5 seems pretty reasonable. He's a little better than Deion Branch, but I expect a slight regression of passing stats from last year from the league as a whole (NE included).
Llyod still seemed quick last year.. He wasnt fetching a 4th round pick in dynasty.. Most offers werent even replied to.. In the 4th round your talking TJ Graham, Travis Benjamin territory.. Ill take BL with Brady and JMc for a year or three... In redraft.. Late flyer I guess..
 
Lloyd is 2 years removed from a career season and is now parked u again with Josh McDaniels who is going to have a point to prove to a lot of folks this year.
But he's 1 year removed from playing for McDaniels in StL. His stats pro-rated over 16 games would have been: 74, 994 yards, 7 TDs.

Tom Brady is the QB and he has shown in the past a knack for finding talent on the outside alike when Randy Moss was a Patriot.
Moss is the only "outside" threat that has thrived with Brady, and that was RANDY MOSS. Lloyd does not possess the physical tools Randy Moss did. That's like saying "Bobby Ross' has a knack for getting production from his RBs, like when Barry Sanders ran for 3500+ yards in '97 & '98, so it should be reasonable for Greg Hill to do well in the same system, coaching staff, etc."

I haven't done my AFC projections yet, but I think Lloyd will get somewhere in the range of:

65 catches, 950 yards, 6 TD.

ETA-after doing my projections:

110 targets, 57 catches, 883 yards, 6 TD

 
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Sooner or later teams will scheme the shorter passing game and the seams. I think Branch has lost a step and thus there haven't been a lot of weapons on the outside. Lloyd is 2 years removed from a career season and is now parked u again with Josh McDaniels who is going to have a point to prove to a lot of folks this year. Tom Brady is the QB and he has shown in the past a knack for finding talent on the outside alike when Randy Moss was a Patriot. I do not expect Lloyd to be anywhere close to that but it seems reasonable that Lloyd will some have some big games, some avg games, and probably a few duds too.

70/1,050/8 TD but I feel he could have a lot more if things go well in New England. Lloyd will have at least 4-5 100+ yard games and being drafted as the WR25-30 off the board, he offers pretty good value at the WR3 spot and can float as a WR2 some weeks.
See, I like these numbers based on the fact that even with Gronk, Hernandez and Welker, there was such a need in Belicheck's mind that he had to bring in Lloyd and Stallworth to go along with Ocho and branch...seems like overkill, but maybe he just feels that the TEs will be adjusted to by defenses (not that anyone has shown they can), but if he believes it, he may want to open things up more on the sides and vertically and lets be honest...Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and Lloyd are on the field at the same time...who do you single cover with a weaker d-back? That is where Lloyd will excel.

I see 65-1020 7tds for him in 2012.

 
Sooner or later teams will scheme the shorter passing game and the seams.
I'm pretty sure that teams have been trying to game-plan around Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez for a while now. All three will be open more, and get more targets than Brandon Lloyd, not just based on scheme, but because all three are MUCH better players.
 
See, I like these numbers based on the fact that even with Gronk, Hernandez and Welker, there was such a need in Belicheck's mind that he had to bring in Lloyd and Stallworth to go along with Ocho and Branch
$4 million / year in an offseason where Pierre friggin' Garçon got twice that doesn't indicate a huge burning need to me. More like cheap insurance against a Welker holdout or a very reasonably priced veteran WR2/3 option.
 
2010 was an outlier, folks.50 - 750 - 5 seems pretty reasonable. He's a little better than Deion Branch, but I expect a slight regression of passing stats from last year from the league as a whole (NE included).
Since 2009 and being paired with McDaniels, Lloyd ranks as the WR12 in fantasy ppg (0 ppr). Up until now, I would say playing in a McDaniels scheme has worked out well for Lloyd.That being said, I don't see any way that Lloyd puts up numbers like he did in 2010 based on the fact that NE is loaded with weapons while the Broncos and Rams were not. For Lloyd to do well, that means other receivers and tight ends will have to suffer. I haven't tried figuring the breakdown for Pats players yet, so thus don't have a projection just yet. I also want to see who ends up on the Pats WR roster and depth chart to see which players will have a real piece of the pay and who might get crumbs.
 
Last year, I was surprised by the lack of respect Lloyd seemed to garner coming off a 1400+ yard season. Obviously, his situation was murky at best even in TC with Orton/Tebow. And while his production wound up to a certain extent justifying the perception that he wasnt worth a high pick, I still believe Lloyd is chronically overlooked and underrated.

In 15 games last year, he put up 70/966/5 in situations where the QB state of affairs (and team situation) was as bad as it could get. In an era where 4000 yards has become a ho-hum milestone, Lloyd subsisted on the 30th & 31st ranked passing attacks in the NFL. And he still almost put up 1000 yards. He moves on to NE in a system he has thrived in with a coordinator who loves him and one of the best QBs in history and this has seemingly generated little to no buzz.

Ive heard Tom Brady say before that he throws to the open guy. With Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez combining for a ridiculous 169/2237/24 line (with a 71.3% catch rate), it seemed like because of the Pats TE size/speed combo, this was always the case. But for as productive and prolific as Tom Brady was in 2011, do you know how many passes Brady completed that travelled over 20 yards? 15! Over 30? 1 friggin pass! By comparison, Brees completed 31 passes travelling over 20 yards. Rodgers 30. Stafford 22. Eli? 37!!! In the last 3 seasons, Brady has only completed 45 of these. The fact of the matter is that Brady simply hasnt had weapons that he can exploit in this manner.

In 2011, with dilapidated passing attacks, Lloyd was only able to catch two passes that travelled over 20 yards. But in his breakout season of 2010, when this became his specialty? 16! He alone caught more passes of this variety than Brady had thrown for in 2011. So IMO, Lloyd fits this situation perfectly and I think hes going to surprise some people because for all those teams facing the Patriots, their first and second priorities are going to be to stop Gronk/Hernandez/Welker. And Lloyd will essentially be dealing with single coverage. So I expect Lloyd to bring the big downfield play element back to the Patriots in 2012. I suspect that this might be an area of focus for them early in the season since Belichick will be loathe to wait for teams to adjust to last years attack and will establish this years attack irrespective of that.

Prediction: 72 Receptions, 1179 Receiving Yards, 9 TDs.

 
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See, I like these numbers based on the fact that even with Gronk, Hernandez and Welker, there was such a need in Belicheck's mind that he had to bring in Lloyd and Stallworth to go along with Ocho and Branch
$4 million / year in an offseason where Pierre friggin' Garçon got twice that doesn't indicate a huge burning need to me. More like cheap insurance against a Welker holdout or a very reasonably priced veteran WR2/3 option.
possibly, but $4 million is a lot when you consider the cap.Logan Mankings in over $6 million in cap money, Brady restructured and is now at $8 million, and that is just a couple of random players I thought to look up. When you consider the cap is at $125 and there are 52 man rosters, you are looking at about 2.2 million each if they got paid equally. Welker is going to be about 10 million, so you start to add that up, and you have very little money to go around after the top 10 or so players. Lloyd at $4 million is cheap (I agree with you that he will out perform that), but when you consider I've named 3 players out of 53 who will eat about 1/5 of the monies available, you see that $4 million to one player, could equate to 5-6 undrafted FAs (and likely more). They HAVE to fill out their roster and while it is not much in football terms, the cap itself is a limiting factor that can make that $4 million guy almost as important as the top 10 paid on the roster.

Just an example of the NY Jets, their top 4 (as of today) Holmes, Hill, Kerley and Schilens have a roughly $12 million cap hit...just $2-$3 million more than Welker...I'd say $4 million for a guy is not an afterthought.

 
Maybe they will use Brandon Floyd. Maybe they won't. Anyone drafting him this year can feel the same way about their fantasy team.

Projection: Whim of the Coach

 
Lloyd is 2 years removed from a career season and is now parked u again with Josh McDaniels who is going to have a point to prove to a lot of folks this year.
But he's 1 year removed from playing for McDaniels in StL. His stats pro-rated over 16 games would have been: 74, 994 yards, 7 TDs.

Tom Brady is the QB and he has shown in the past a knack for finding talent on the outside alike when Randy Moss was a Patriot.
Moss is the only "outside" threat that has thrived with Brady, and that was RANDY MOSS. Lloyd does not possess the physical tools Randy Moss did. That's like saying "Bobby Ross' has a knack for getting production from his RBs, like when Barry Sanders ran for 3500+ yards in '97 & '98, so it should be reasonable for Greg Hill to do well in the same system, coaching staff, etc."

I haven't done my AFC projections yet, but I think Lloyd will get somewhere in the range of:

65 catches, 950 yards, 6 TD.
He played in Denver, was not used a lot early in the season, also nagging injuries, he made some amazing catches from Tebow and Bradford, both struggled in the passing game, would not put a lot of stock in his stats at St Louis.Brady an upgrade over Tebow and Bradford perhaps?

 
Last year, I was surprised by the lack of respect Lloyd seemed to garner coming off a 1400+ yard season. Obviously, his situation was murky at best even in TC with Orton/Tebow. And while his production wound up to a certain extent justifying the perception that he wasn’t worth a high pick, I still believe Lloyd is chronically overlooked and underrated.

In 15 games last year, he put up 70/966/5 in situations where the QB state of affairs (and team situation) was as bad as it could get. In an era where 4000 yards has become a ho-hum milestone, Lloyd subsisted on the 30th & 31st ranked passing attacks in the NFL. And he still almost put up 1000 yards. He moves on to NE in a system he has thrived in with a coordinator who loves him and one of the best QB’s in history and this has seemingly generated little to no buzz.

I’ve heard Tom Brady say before that he ‘throws to the open’ guy. With Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez combining for a ridiculous 169/2237/24 line (with a 71.3% catch rate), it seemed like because of the Pats TE size/speed combo, this was always the case. But for as productive and prolific as Tom Brady was in 2011, do you know how many passes Brady completed that travelled over 20 yards? 15! Over 30? 1 friggin’ pass! By comparison, Brees completed 31 passes travelling over 20 yards. Rodgers – 30. Stafford – 22. Eli? – 37!!! In the last 3 seasons, Brady has only completed 45 of these. The fact of the matter is that Brady simply hasn’t had weapons that he can exploit in this manner.

In 2011, with dilapidated passing attacks, Lloyd was only able to catch two passes that travelled over 20 yards. But in his breakout season of 2010, when this became his specialty? 16! He alone caught more passes of this variety than Brady had thrown for in 2011. So IMO, Lloyd fits this situation perfectly and I think he’s going to surprise some people because for all those teams facing the Patriots, their first and second priorities are going to be to stop Gronk/Hernandez/Welker. And Lloyd will essentially be dealing with single coverage. So I expect Lloyd to bring the big downfield play element back to the Patriots in 2012. I suspect that this might be an area of focus for them early in the season since Belichick will be loathe to wait for teams to adjust to last years attack and will establish this years attack irrespective of that.

Prediction: 72 Receptions, 1179 Receiving Yards, 9 TD’s.
I'll take Brandon Lloyd 1 on 1 against the 3rd or 4th best DB the defense can manage with Brady throwing the ball...good days ahead in 2012 for owners.
 
Lloyd is 2 years removed from a career season and is now parked u again with Josh McDaniels who is going to have a point to prove to a lot of folks this year.
But he's 1 year removed from playing for McDaniels in StL. His stats pro-rated over 16 games would have been: 74, 994 yards, 7 TDs.

Tom Brady is the QB and he has shown in the past a knack for finding talent on the outside alike when Randy Moss was a Patriot.
Moss is the only "outside" threat that has thrived with Brady, and that was RANDY MOSS. Lloyd does not possess the physical tools Randy Moss did. That's like saying "Bobby Ross' has a knack for getting production from his RBs, like when Barry Sanders ran for 3500+ yards in '97 & '98, so it should be reasonable for Greg Hill to do well in the same system, coaching staff, etc."

I haven't done my AFC projections yet, but I think Lloyd will get somewhere in the range of:

65 catches, 950 yards, 6 TD.
He played in Denver, was not used a lot early in the season, also nagging injuries, he made some amazing catches from Tebow and Bradford, both struggled in the passing game, would not put a lot of stock in his stats at St Louis.Brady an upgrade over Tebow and Bradford perhaps?
No offense, but aren't you selectively applying the facts that you think fit your conclusion?>In 2010, he had a career season (with Orton at QB) under McDaniels. 2011, he had a pedestrian season (with Bradford at QB) under McDaniels. You made the point that being "parked again with Josh McDaniels" is part of the appeal with Lloyd this year. You have TWO seasons (1 and 3/4) with McDaniels as Lloyd's HC/OC. In one, he was great, in the other he was pedestrian. You choose to ignore the average season under McDaniels, while citing the career year under him as support for your projections.

>In 2011, he wasn't used a lot early, had nagging injuries, he made some amazing catches from Tebow & Bradford, depsite both struggling in the passing game. Orton was the QB early in Denver (with whom Lloyd had that career year in 2010) when Lloyd was averaging over 8 targets/game & he received double digit targets in 5 of his first 6 games in StL (9 in the 6th game), Lloyd has dealt with injuries throughout his career, save 2010, & he couldn't have made more than 4 amazing catches from Tebow, since Tebow only threw passes in 1 game with Lloyd last year (completing 4 of them). You're "mis-remembering" the early part of last season with regards to Lloyd's usage, you're ignoring the fact that Lloyd has almost never been able to stay healthy for a full season, and you're "mis-remembering" again the impact that Tebow and Bradford had on Lloyd.

>Brady an upgrade over Tebow/Bradford. Again, you ignore the fact that he rarely was a WR with Tebow at QB. Orton was his QB in Denver. Also, you ignore the fact that he was the ONLY option in Denver in 2010 and (aside from Brandon Gibson) the only option in StL in 2011. In NE, he will be, at best, the 3rd option (behind Welker & Gronk), and likely the 4th (behind Hernandez). I think the upgrade in QB is outweighed by the substantial decrease in targets he should expect to see. Only Welker (in 09 & 11) and Moss (in 07) received the amount of targets Lloyd averaged over the last two yars (152). I don't see Lloyd getting 150+ targets in NE this year.

I understand where you are coming from with regards to your outlook on Lloyd in NE, under McDaniels. I felt the same way, at first. But when I really looked at the situation, and the facts surrounding Lloyd (during his career, in Denver in 2010, last year, and the upcoming season), I realized that I was wrong to be as optimistic as I was.

 
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I do think Lloyd + McDaniels plus an amazing QB like Brady = potential awesomeness (how's that for analytical verbiage :) )...BUT, I do have trouble making all the pieces fit when you also have Welker and his 90-100 receptions and the monster combo of Hernandez plus Gronk. Something's gotta give.

 
'Ron_Mexico said:
'Pictus Cat said:
Maybe they will use Brandon Floyd. Maybe they won't.

Anyone drafting him this year can feel the same way about their fantasy team.
:loco:
:lmao: I love it, Brandon Floyd. This is my new name for BL. He will now and forever be known as

BRANDON FLOYD

 
'TheDirtyWord said:
Last year, I was surprised by the lack of respect Lloyd seemed to garner coming off a 1400+ yard season. Obviously, his situation was murky at best even in TC with Orton/Tebow. And while his production wound up to a certain extent justifying the perception that he wasn’t worth a high pick, I still believe Lloyd is chronically overlooked and underrated.

In 15 games last year, he put up 70/966/5 in situations where the QB state of affairs (and team situation) was as bad as it could get. In an era where 4000 yards has become a ho-hum milestone, Lloyd subsisted on the 30th & 31st ranked passing attacks in the NFL. And he still almost put up 1000 yards. He moves on to NE in a system he has thrived in with a coordinator who loves him and one of the best QB’s in history and this has seemingly generated little to no buzz.

I’ve heard Tom Brady say before that he ‘throws to the open’ guy. With Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez combining for a ridiculous 169/2237/24 line (with a 71.3% catch rate), it seemed like because of the Pats TE size/speed combo, this was always the case. But for as productive and prolific as Tom Brady was in 2011, do you know how many passes Brady completed that travelled over 20 yards? 15! Over 30? 1 friggin’ pass! By comparison, Brees completed 31 passes travelling over 20 yards. Rodgers – 30. Stafford – 22. Eli? – 37!!! In the last 3 seasons, Brady has only completed 45 of these. The fact of the matter is that Brady simply hasn’t had weapons that he can exploit in this manner.

In 2011, with dilapidated passing attacks, Lloyd was only able to catch two passes that travelled over 20 yards. But in his breakout season of 2010, when this became his specialty? 16! He alone caught more passes of this variety than Brady had thrown for in 2011. So IMO, Lloyd fits this situation perfectly and I think he’s going to surprise some people because for all those teams facing the Patriots, their first and second priorities are going to be to stop Gronk/Hernandez/Welker. And Lloyd will essentially be dealing with single coverage. So I expect Lloyd to bring the big downfield play element back to the Patriots in 2012. I suspect that this might be an area of focus for them early in the season since Belichick will be loathe to wait for teams to adjust to last years attack and will establish this years attack irrespective of that.

Prediction: 72 Receptions, 1179 Receiving Yards, 9 TD’s.
Agreed. Lloyd will have some down weeks, but he will have some monster weeks as well, and I suspect his numbers will be right at about what you are predicting.
 
I do think Lloyd + McDaniels plus an amazing QB like Brady = potential awesomeness (how's that for analytical verbiage :) )...BUT, I do have trouble making all the pieces fit when you also have Welker and his 90-100 receptions and the monster combo of Hernandez plus Gronk. Something's gotta give.
If Brady has an outside target worth throwing the ball to, he'll throw the ball to him. One thing the Pats have always done is use their talent well. When they had a true bellcow, they ran him. When they had Moss, they threw the ball to him. If Lloyds targets come at the expense of some of the TE targets, so be it. We can't just pencil in the TE's for last year's numbers. I think they will come back to earth in favor of a more balanced / traditional attack. I think Lloyd does fine there, and catches a lot of TD's. He's too good to not get the ball thrown to him. I think Brady is going to love having him. 70/1150/12
 
Lloyd will have a great season. Last year he toyed with cb's only to result in horrible passes or sacks, his talent is real. He already has full grasp of a prolific passing offense that doesn't need him to shoulder the entire load like he did in Stl. Welker and Gronk will take a hit in targets because Lloyd will be just as open just as fast as they are while getting single coverage.  Not to mention he's another rdzn threat for Brady that can catch fades, jump balls, and quick slants if the chemistry is there early. A side note: I also liked the way he handled himself last year as a pro, situation wasn't great but you didn't hear him #####ing every week about his qb or contract on or off the field. 

77/1250/8

 
I do think Lloyd + McDaniels plus an amazing QB like Brady = potential awesomeness (how's that for analytical verbiage :) )...BUT, I do have trouble making all the pieces fit when you also have Welker and his 90-100 receptions and the monster combo of Hernandez plus Gronk. Something's gotta give.
You can add Gaffney in there as well, lots of mouths to feed...
 
Lloyd will have a great season. Last year he toyed with cb's only to result in horrible passes or sacks, his talent is real.He already has full grasp of a prolific passing offense that doesn't need him to shoulder the entire load like he did in Stl. Welker and Gronk will take a hit in targets because Lloyd will be just as open just as fast as they are while getting single coverage.  Not to mention he's another rdzn threat for Brady that can catch fades, jump balls, and quick slants if the chemistry is there early. A side note: I also liked the way he handled himself last year as a pro, situation wasn't great but you didn't hear him #####ing every week about his qb or contract on or off the field. 

77/1250/8
:no: Most guys with real talent don't get passed around the NFL like a doober at a Dead show while averaging 35-530-3.5 over 9 years. He's a backup quality WR who happened to fall into a perfect storm situation-wise two years ago.

 
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even though he went to the patriots i dont think hes going over 1000. thats about the max which would be a good year. but im happy i traded him for finley.

 
Lloyd will have a great season. Last year he toyed with cb's only to result in horrible passes or sacks, his talent is real.He already has full grasp of a prolific passing offense that doesn't need him to shoulder the entire load like he did in Stl. Welker and Gronk will take a hit in targets because Lloyd will be just as open just as fast as they are while getting single coverage. Not to mention he's another rdzn threat for Brady that can catch fades, jump balls, and quick slants if the chemistry is there early. A side note: I also liked the way he handled himself last year as a pro, situation wasn't great but you didn't hear him #####ing every week about his qb or contract on or off the field.

77/1250/8
:no: Most guys with real talent don't get passed around the NFL like a doober at a Dead show while averaging 35-530-3.5 over 9 years. He's a backup quality WR who happened to fall into a perfect storm situation-wise two years ago.
A backup?! Wow, You don't last 9 years in the NFL by not displaying talent. You countering with numbers but I actually watched him the past two years under McDaniels where he’s had his best two seasons as a pro, one where the situation was pretty bad yet he still caught 70 balls almost for a 1000 yards. Now Lloyd is in the best situation of his entire career. Same offence, same tutor, and same player with a better supporting cast. Classic case where skill meets opportunity, it’s not rocket science. You can get him as a wr3 and expect high-end wr2/low-end wr1 numbers.
 
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A backup?! Wow, You don't last 9 years in the NFL by not displaying talent.
1-I think the guy meant FF back-up, not NFL back-up.2-EVERYONE who is on an NFL roster has talent; just because a guy "lasted" 9 years doesn't make him special. If so, Roy Williams, Bryant Johnson, Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson (and many more) are/were special.
You countering with numbers but I actually watched him the past two years under McDaniels where he’s had his best two seasons as a pro, one where the situation was pretty bad yet he still caught 70 balls almost for a 1000 yards. Now Lloyd is in the best situation of his entire career. Same offence, same tutor, and same player with a better supporting cast. Classic case where skill meets opportunity, it’s not rocket science.
You're right about one thing. It's not rocket science. But this isn't Lloyd's best situation of his entire career, not if you're talking about FF numbers. That was 2010, because he was the only option there, so he was force-fed targets. That won't happen in NE. Let's look at the numbers: Assume Brady returns to a more "normal" number of passing attempts, say 560. During his time in NE, Welker has garnered 27% of the targets. He played with Moss 3 of those seasons, and no one can realistically argue that Lloyd is going to command as many targets as Moss did. So, let's assume that Welker continues to get his 27% of the targets, that's 151 targets. The two TEs have been targeted 36% of the time the last two years, including 45% of the targets last year. The most common assumption is that Lloyd's targets will come at their expense. I don't agree with this thinking, but for argument's sake, let's take 10% away from them and give them only 26% of the targets next year, that's 146 targets between the two of them. **This would represent a loss of almost 130 targets for the TEs from last year, which I don't think will happen, but I'm playing devil's advocate here** Since 2007, when NE became a pass-heavy offense, Brady has targeted his #2 WR with 20% of his pass attempts (this excludes 2008, when Brady was out for the year). Out of 560 attempts, this is 112 targets. Assume Lloyd gets the WR2 targets.Since 2007, Brady has targeted his RBs with 15% of his pass attempts. Out of 560 attempts,that would be 82. That leaves 69 targets. You have Branch, Ochocinco, Gaffney, Edelman, Slater and several other WRs competing for roster spots. Assume 4 of these WRs make the roster. Say Branch/Ochocinco (assuming 1 of the 2 gets released) Gaffney, Edelman, & 1 other WR get split 50 of those targets, then give the other 19 to Lloyd.That gives Lloyd 131 targets. His career catch % is 46%, let's give him a catch rate of 52% (which happens to equal his single-season career high). That means he'd have 68 catches.Lloyd's single-season high YPR is 18.8 (set in 2010). Other than 2010, he's never come close to that number. His career average is 15.4. Let's give him that career average. That would equal 1047 yards. Lloyd's TD to catch rate in 2010 was 14%. His average outside of 2010 is 8%. Let's split the difference and give him 11% for this season. That's 7 TDs.So assuming all of these things, you have a final stat line of 131 targets, 68 catches, 1047 yards, and 7 TDs. That doesn't sound like anything close to WR1 in FF. A few more catches, a few more yards, and 1 more TD than my earlier projection, but as I posted above, I don't see all of those things happening; this would be the "perfect storm" for Lloyd this year & best-case scenario (barring injury to other NE receiving options, of course).
 
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No, I did mean NFL backup level talent, although borderline WR 2/3 talent would likely be more fair in all honesty. Again, 6 teams heading into his 10th year. It's not like SF, Chicago, Washington, etc. were overloaded at WR when they jettisoned him either. 35 catches, 530 yards, 3 1/2 TDs are his career averages. The guy he's supposedly replacing, Branch, has actually had a significantly better career (averaging 50-650-4 over 10 years). Lloyd's not a total scrub, but he's no world-beater.

Sure, he's in a better offense now, but he isn't competing with Brandon Gibson or Jabar Gaffney for targets anymore. Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez are all Pro Bowl level talents, the Patriots are DEEP beyond Welker/Lloyd at WR, and they throw a decent bit to the RBs. The Patriots still only get one football, and they have quite a few better places to throw it than Brandon Lloyd.

 
Lloyd will have a great season. Last year he toyed with cb's only to result in horrible passes or sacks, his talent is real.He already has full grasp of a prolific passing offense that doesn't need him to shoulder the entire load like he did in Stl. Welker and Gronk will take a hit in targets because Lloyd will be just as open just as fast as they are while getting single coverage.  Not to mention he's another rdzn threat for Brady that can catch fades, jump balls, and quick slants if the chemistry is there early. A side note: I also liked the way he handled himself last year as a pro, situation wasn't great but you didn't hear him #####ing every week about his qb or contract on or off the field. 

77/1250/8
:no: Most guys with real talent don't get passed around the NFL like a doober at a Dead show while averaging 35-530-3.5 over 9 years. He's a backup quality WR who happened to fall into a perfect storm situation-wise two years ago.
The first 2/3rds of his career are well documented, and an old argument. If you're going to equate year 3 (et al) with now, you just haven't been watching him play. Whatever the reason, he's a different player.

 
A backup?! Wow, You don't last 9 years in the NFL by not displaying talent.
1-I think the guy meant FF back-up, not NFL back-up.2-EVERYONE who is on an NFL roster has talent; just because a guy "lasted" 9 years doesn't make him special. If so, Roy Williams, Bryant Johnson, Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson (and many more) are/were special.
You countering with numbers but I actually watched him the past two years under McDaniels where he’s had his best two seasons as a pro, one where the situation was pretty bad yet he still caught 70 balls almost for a 1000 yards. Now Lloyd is in the best situation of his entire career. Same offence, same tutor, and same player with a better supporting cast. Classic case where skill meets opportunity, it’s not rocket science.
You're right about one thing. It's not rocket science. But this isn't Lloyd's best situation of his entire career, not if you're talking about FF numbers. That was 2010, because he was the only option there, so he was force-fed targets. That won't happen in NE. Let's look at the numbers: Assume Brady returns to a more "normal" number of passing attempts, say 560. During his time in NE, Welker has garnered 27% of the targets. He played with Moss 3 of those seasons, and no one can realistically argue that Lloyd is going to command as many targets as Moss did. So, let's assume that Welker continues to get his 27% of the targets, that's 151 targets. The two TEs have been targeted 36% of the time the last two years, including 45% of the targets last year. The most common assumption is that Lloyd's targets will come at their expense. I don't agree with this thinking, but for argument's sake, let's take 10% away from them and give them only 26% of the targets next year, that's 146 targets between the two of them. **This would represent a loss of almost 130 targets for the TEs from last year, which I don't think will happen, but I'm playing devil's advocate here** Since 2007, when NE became a pass-heavy offense, Brady has targeted his #2 WR with 20% of his pass attempts (this excludes 2008, when Brady was out for the year). Out of 560 attempts, this is 112 targets. Assume Lloyd gets the WR2 targets.Since 2007, Brady has targeted his RBs with 15% of his pass attempts. Out of 560 attempts,that would be 82. That leaves 69 targets. You have Branch, Ochocinco, Gaffney, Edelman, Slater and several other WRs competing for roster spots. Assume 4 of these WRs make the roster. Say Branch/Ochocinco (assuming 1 of the 2 gets released) Gaffney, Edelman, & 1 other WR get split 50 of those targets, then give the other 19 to Lloyd.That gives Lloyd 131 targets. His career catch % is 46%, let's give him a catch rate of 52% (which happens to equal his single-season career high). That means he'd have 68 catches.Lloyd's single-season high YPR is 18.8 (set in 2010). Other than 2010, he's never come close to that number. His career average is 15.4. Let's give him that career average. That would equal 1047 yards. Lloyd's TD to catch rate in 2010 was 14%. His average outside of 2010 is 8%. Let's split the difference and give him 11% for this season. That's 7 TDs.So assuming all of these things, you have a final stat line of 131 targets, 68 catches, 1047 yards, and 7 TDs. That doesn't sound like anything close to WR1 in FF. A few more catches, a few more yards, and 1 more TD than my earlier projection, but as I posted above, I don't see all of those things happening; this would be the "perfect storm" for Lloyd this year & best-case scenario (barring injury to other NE receiving options, of course).
Not to say anyone is right or wrong these are just projections. The numbers are whatever and it's not what I'm basing my case on. Lloyd can cosistantly get open vs zone or single coverage. Moss/Branch/Ocho were all somewhat one trick ponies of the same breed, Lloyd doesn't belong in the same category. He's a better wr than he was early in his career, part of why idc about what he averaged in San Fran/Chi ect.. The quality of Lloyd's targets will bet a lot better with Tom Brady. There will be a big difference in catching balls in stride that hit your hands vs diving out of bounds for every reception. The only real difference in our projections is the ypc. I see Lloyd catching 65-70 also, just at 16-17 ypc.
 
A backup?! Wow, You don't last 9 years in the NFL by not displaying talent.
1-I think the guy meant FF back-up, not NFL back-up.2-EVERYONE who is on an NFL roster has talent; just because a guy "lasted" 9 years doesn't make him special. If so, Roy Williams, Bryant Johnson, Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson (and many more) are/were special.
You countering with numbers but I actually watched him the past two years under McDaniels where he’s had his best two seasons as a pro, one where the situation was pretty bad yet he still caught 70 balls almost for a 1000 yards. Now Lloyd is in the best situation of his entire career. Same offence, same tutor, and same player with a better supporting cast. Classic case where skill meets opportunity, it’s not rocket science.
You're right about one thing. It's not rocket science. But this isn't Lloyd's best situation of his entire career, not if you're talking about FF numbers. That was 2010, because he was the only option there, so he was force-fed targets. That won't happen in NE. Let's look at the numbers: Assume Brady returns to a more "normal" number of passing attempts, say 560. During his time in NE, Welker has garnered 27% of the targets. He played with Moss 3 of those seasons, and no one can realistically argue that Lloyd is going to command as many targets as Moss did. So, let's assume that Welker continues to get his 27% of the targets, that's 151 targets. The two TEs have been targeted 36% of the time the last two years, including 45% of the targets last year. The most common assumption is that Lloyd's targets will come at their expense. I don't agree with this thinking, but for argument's sake, let's take 10% away from them and give them only 26% of the targets next year, that's 146 targets between the two of them. **This would represent a loss of almost 130 targets for the TEs from last year, which I don't think will happen, but I'm playing devil's advocate here** Since 2007, when NE became a pass-heavy offense, Brady has targeted his #2 WR with 20% of his pass attempts (this excludes 2008, when Brady was out for the year). Out of 560 attempts, this is 112 targets. Assume Lloyd gets the WR2 targets.Since 2007, Brady has targeted his RBs with 15% of his pass attempts. Out of 560 attempts,that would be 82. That leaves 69 targets. You have Branch, Ochocinco, Gaffney, Edelman, Slater and several other WRs competing for roster spots. Assume 4 of these WRs make the roster. Say Branch/Ochocinco (assuming 1 of the 2 gets released) Gaffney, Edelman, & 1 other WR get split 50 of those targets, then give the other 19 to Lloyd.That gives Lloyd 131 targets. His career catch % is 46%, let's give him a catch rate of 52% (which happens to equal his single-season career high). That means he'd have 68 catches.Lloyd's single-season high YPR is 18.8 (set in 2010). Other than 2010, he's never come close to that number. His career average is 15.4. Let's give him that career average. That would equal 1047 yards. Lloyd's TD to catch rate in 2010 was 14%. His average outside of 2010 is 8%. Let's split the difference and give him 11% for this season. That's 7 TDs.So assuming all of these things, you have a final stat line of 131 targets, 68 catches, 1047 yards, and 7 TDs. That doesn't sound like anything close to WR1 in FF. A few more catches, a few more yards, and 1 more TD than my earlier projection, but as I posted above, I don't see all of those things happening; this would be the "perfect storm" for Lloyd this year & best-case scenario (barring injury to other NE receiving options, of course).
I like that your approach of breaking it down into numbers, but mose of those numbers (except for targets) look more like a best guess than Lloyd's ceiling. Some of them (especially catch rate) even seem like underestimates. Catch rate and TD rate depend heavily on the QB and the offensive system, and New England is a huge leap up for Lloyd. There will be less defensive attention, more accurate passes, and more trips to the red zone. That means better per-target numbers.Deion Branch, over the past 2 seasons with the Patriots, has averaged 8.6 yards per target and scored a touchdown on 6.1% of his targets (while getting 101 targets per 16 games). You're projecting Lloyd for only 8.0 ypt and a 5.3% TD rate. I'd expect Lloyd to do at least as well as Branch on both numbers, since he's more of a down-the-field receiver and more of a red zone threat.To see how much team matters: in Seattle (2006-10), Branch averaged 6.9 ypt and a 4.4% TD rate, meaning that he improved in NE by 1.7 in ypt and 1.7% in TD rate. Lloyd, over the past 4 years, has averaged 7.8 ypt and a 4.9% TD rate - so your "perfect storm" projection only has him improving by 0.2 in ypt and 0.4% in TD rate.In 2009, Randy Moss went for 83/1264/13 on only 138 targets. Lloyd is no Randy Moss - I'd put him somewhere in the wide expanse between Branch and Moss - but that shows that it doesn't take a ton of targets to put up big numbers in the Patriots' offense.68/1047/7 actually sounds pretty close for a projection, assuming Lloyd wins the starting WR job outright and stays healthy, but it should only take around 115 targets to get there (which leaves room for upside on usage rate as well as the other stats). That is almost identical to AJ Green's stat line from last year (over 15 games); Green was WR14 non-ppr, WR16 ppr.
 
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A backup?! Wow, You don't last 9 years in the NFL by not displaying talent.
1-I think the guy meant FF back-up, not NFL back-up.2-EVERYONE who is on an NFL roster has talent; just because a guy "lasted" 9 years doesn't make him special. If so, Roy Williams, Bryant Johnson, Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson (and many more) are/were special.
You countering with numbers but I actually watched him the past two years under McDaniels where he’s had his best two seasons as a pro, one where the situation was pretty bad yet he still caught 70 balls almost for a 1000 yards. Now Lloyd is in the best situation of his entire career. Same offence, same tutor, and same player with a better supporting cast. Classic case where skill meets opportunity, it’s not rocket science.
You're right about one thing. It's not rocket science. But this isn't Lloyd's best situation of his entire career, not if you're talking about FF numbers. That was 2010, because he was the only option there, so he was force-fed targets. That won't happen in NE. Let's look at the numbers: Assume Brady returns to a more "normal" number of passing attempts, say 560. During his time in NE, Welker has garnered 27% of the targets. He played with Moss 3 of those seasons, and no one can realistically argue that Lloyd is going to command as many targets as Moss did. So, let's assume that Welker continues to get his 27% of the targets, that's 151 targets. The two TEs have been targeted 36% of the time the last two years, including 45% of the targets last year. The most common assumption is that Lloyd's targets will come at their expense. I don't agree with this thinking, but for argument's sake, let's take 10% away from them and give them only 26% of the targets next year, that's 146 targets between the two of them. **This would represent a loss of almost 130 targets for the TEs from last year, which I don't think will happen, but I'm playing devil's advocate here** Since 2007, when NE became a pass-heavy offense, Brady has targeted his #2 WR with 20% of his pass attempts (this excludes 2008, when Brady was out for the year). Out of 560 attempts, this is 112 targets. Assume Lloyd gets the WR2 targets.Since 2007, Brady has targeted his RBs with 15% of his pass attempts. Out of 560 attempts,that would be 82. That leaves 69 targets. You have Branch, Ochocinco, Gaffney, Edelman, Slater and several other WRs competing for roster spots. Assume 4 of these WRs make the roster. Say Branch/Ochocinco (assuming 1 of the 2 gets released) Gaffney, Edelman, & 1 other WR get split 50 of those targets, then give the other 19 to Lloyd.That gives Lloyd 131 targets. His career catch % is 46%, let's give him a catch rate of 52% (which happens to equal his single-season career high). That means he'd have 68 catches.Lloyd's single-season high YPR is 18.8 (set in 2010). Other than 2010, he's never come close to that number. His career average is 15.4. Let's give him that career average. That would equal 1047 yards. Lloyd's TD to catch rate in 2010 was 14%. His average outside of 2010 is 8%. Let's split the difference and give him 11% for this season. That's 7 TDs.So assuming all of these things, you have a final stat line of 131 targets, 68 catches, 1047 yards, and 7 TDs. That doesn't sound like anything close to WR1 in FF. A few more catches, a few more yards, and 1 more TD than my earlier projection, but as I posted above, I don't see all of those things happening; this would be the "perfect storm" for Lloyd this year & best-case scenario (barring injury to other NE receiving options, of course).
Not to say anyone is right or wrong these are just projections. The numbers are whatever and it's not what I'm basing my case on. Lloyd can cosistantly get open vs zone or single coverage. Moss/Branch/Ocho were all somewhat one trick ponies of the same breed, Lloyd doesn't belong in the same category. He's a better wr than he was early in his career, part of why idc about what he averaged in San Fran/Chi ect.. The quality of Lloyd's targets will bet a lot better with Tom Brady. There will be a big difference in catching balls in stride that hit your hands vs diving out of bounds for every reception. The only real difference in our projections is the ypc. I see Lloyd catching 65-70 also, just at 16-17 ypc.
He's had almost a dozen NFL QBs throw passes to him in his NFL career. I realize that Tom Brady is better than all/most of them, but he's only had 1 SINGLE season where his YPC was that high. And, with the exception of Randy Moss, Brady has NEVER targeted a WR often in the red zone. It doesn't make sense to expect Lloyd to have such a high YPC, and to be a big red-zone target. And if you expect him to be a WR1, those things need to happen.
 
A backup?! Wow, You don't last 9 years in the NFL by not displaying talent.
1-I think the guy meant FF back-up, not NFL back-up.2-EVERYONE who is on an NFL roster has talent; just because a guy "lasted" 9 years doesn't make him special. If so, Roy Williams, Bryant Johnson, Donte Stallworth, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson (and many more) are/were special.

You countering with numbers but I actually watched him the past two years under McDaniels where he’s had his best two seasons as a pro, one where the situation was pretty bad yet he still caught 70 balls almost for a 1000 yards. Now Lloyd is in the best situation of his entire career. Same offence, same tutor, and same player with a better supporting cast. Classic case where skill meets opportunity, it’s not rocket science.
You're right about one thing. It's not rocket science. But this isn't Lloyd's best situation of his entire career, not if you're talking about FF numbers. That was 2010, because he was the only option there, so he was force-fed targets. That won't happen in NE. Let's look at the numbers: Assume Brady returns to a more "normal" number of passing attempts, say 560.

During his time in NE, Welker has garnered 27% of the targets. He played with Moss 3 of those seasons, and no one can realistically argue that Lloyd is going to command as many targets as Moss did. So, let's assume that Welker continues to get his 27% of the targets, that's 151 targets.

The two TEs have been targeted 36% of the time the last two years, including 45% of the targets last year. The most common assumption is that Lloyd's targets will come at their expense. I don't agree with this thinking, but for argument's sake, let's take 10% away from them and give them only 26% of the targets next year, that's 146 targets between the two of them. **This would represent a loss of almost 130 targets for the TEs from last year, which I don't think will happen, but I'm playing devil's advocate here**

Since 2007, when NE became a pass-heavy offense, Brady has targeted his #2 WR with 20% of his pass attempts (this excludes 2008, when Brady was out for the year). Out of 560 attempts, this is 112 targets. Assume Lloyd gets the WR2 targets.

Since 2007, Brady has targeted his RBs with 15% of his pass attempts. Out of 560 attempts,that would be 82.

That leaves 69 targets. You have Branch, Ochocinco, Gaffney, Edelman, Slater and several other WRs competing for roster spots. Assume 4 of these WRs make the roster. Say Branch/Ochocinco (assuming 1 of the 2 gets released) Gaffney, Edelman, & 1 other WR get split 50 of those targets, then give the other 19 to Lloyd.

That gives Lloyd 131 targets. His career catch % is 46%, let's give him a catch rate of 52% (which happens to equal his single-season career high). That means he'd have 68 catches.

Lloyd's single-season high YPR is 18.8 (set in 2010). Other than 2010, he's never come close to that number. His career average is 15.4. Let's give him that career average. That would equal 1047 yards.

Lloyd's TD to catch rate in 2010 was 14%. His average outside of 2010 is 8%. Let's split the difference and give him 11% for this season. That's 7 TDs.

So assuming all of these things, you have a final stat line of 131 targets, 68 catches, 1047 yards, and 7 TDs. That doesn't sound like anything close to WR1 in FF. A few more catches, a few more yards, and 1 more TD than my earlier projection, but as I posted above, I don't see all of those things happening; this would be the "perfect storm" for Lloyd this year & best-case scenario (barring injury to other NE receiving options, of course).
I like that your approach of breaking it down into numbers, but mose of those numbers (except for targets) look more like a best guess than Lloyd's ceiling. Some of them (especially catch rate) even seem like underestimates. Catch rate and TD rate depend heavily on the QB and the offensive system, and New England is a huge leap up for Lloyd. There will be less defensive attention, more accurate passes, and more trips to the red zone. That means better per-target numbers.Deion Branch, over the past 2 seasons with the Patriots, has averaged 8.6 yards per target and scored a touchdown on 6.1% of his targets (while getting 101 targets per 16 games). You're projecting Lloyd for only 8.0 ypt and a 5.3% TD rate. I'd expect Lloyd to do at least as well as Branch on both numbers, since he's more of a down-the-field receiver and more of a red zone threat.

To see how much team matters: in Seattle (2006-10), Branch averaged 6.9 ypt and a 4.4% TD rate, meaning that he improved in NE by 1.7 in ypt and 1.7% in TD rate. Lloyd, over the past 4 years, has averaged 7.8 ypt and a 4.9% TD rate - so your "perfect storm" projection only has him improving by 0.2 in ypt and 0.4% in TD rate.

In 2009, Randy Moss went for 83/1264/13 on only 138 targets. Lloyd is no Randy Moss - I'd put him somewhere in the wide expanse between Branch and Moss - but that shows that it doesn't take a ton of targets to put up big numbers in the Patriots' offense.

68/1047/7 actually sounds pretty close for a projection, assuming Lloyd wins the starting WR job outright and stays healthy, but it should only take around 115 targets to get there (which leaves room for upside on usage rate as well as the other stats). That is almost identical to AJ Green's stat line from last year (over 15 games); Green was WR14 non-ppr, WR16 ppr.
This would equal a 13% increase over Lloyd's career catch rate. I know that situation, QB, team, etc matter, but to project such a dramatic increase is illogical. Since 2007, that catch rate would be higher than the rate any WR has had with Brady, other than Welker. So, despite Brady's accuracy, he has not been able to lift any WR (except for Welker, who runs the short routes) to that rate. What logical reason should we have to expect Lloyd to make a huge jump, AND to expect Brady to have better rapport with Lloyd than virtually every NE WR for the last 6 years?And this:

In 2009, Randy Moss went for 83/1264/13 on only 138 targets. Lloyd is no Randy Moss - I'd put him somewhere in the wide expanse between Branch and Moss - but that shows that it doesn't take a ton of targets to put up big numbers in the Patriots' offense.
is a silly statement. Randy Moss was a special player, all-time great talent. To suggest because he did well means it's the "Patriots' offense," is akin to suggesting"Brady threw for 50 TDs in 2007, so Matt Cassell could put up big numbers IN THE PATRIOTS OFFENSE." Matt Cassell did fine in 2008, but his numbers weren't anything close to Brady's.

 
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Out of curiosity, why would anyone project bradys pass attempts to decline this year?
Because 612 attempts is a very high number of attempts. Because NE has averaged 536 attempts/year since Brady became the starter.Because Brady has averaged 556 attempts/year since the Patriots became a pass-centric offense in 2007.Because Josh McDaniels has never directed an offense (OC or HC) that has thrown the ball 600+ times.Because Josh McDaniels' QBs (when he was OC or HC) have averaged 535 attempts/season.Because 73% of the time, a QB who has thrown 600+ attempts in a season has failed to do so the next year. Because of those NFL QBs who have thrown 600+ attempts in a season, they have averaged 535 attempts the next season.Pick a reason, or pick a combination of reasons. It is MUCH MORE LIKELY that Brady's attempts will decline, rather than them going up, or even staying the same.
 
:no: He's a 9 year veteran, and the Patriots are his 6th team. He'll turn 31 prior to the start of this season. His career averages are 35/530/3.5. He's the definition of "journeyman."
I'll give you the age criticism, but "career average" means absolutely nothing in his case. He stepped up his game a few years ago, so you're missing the "what can he do NOW?" aspect if you're using averages. And he's back with Josh McDaniels. Sure, there are lots of mouths to feed in NE but I'm going to predict that Welker sees a decline. I'll stop a little shy of doubling your numbers: 65/900/7
 
As for people trying to point out how fantasy irrelevant Lloyd was early in his career, be reminded that the guys throwing him the football included Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, Alex Smith, Cody Pickett, Marc Brunell, Jason Campbell, and Todd Collins. He also had a long in the tooth Jeff Garcia. He really started to do something with Kyle Orton. I don't think I am going to ruffle any feathers by suggesting Tom Brady trumps all of those guys by a country mile.

 
Out of curiosity, why would anyone project bradys pass attempts to decline this year?
Because 612 attempts is a very high number of attempts. Because NE has averaged 536 attempts/year since Brady became the starter.Because Brady has averaged 556 attempts/year since the Patriots became a pass-centric offense in 2007.Because Josh McDaniels has never directed an offense (OC or HC) that has thrown the ball 600+ times.Because Josh McDaniels' QBs (when he was OC or HC) have averaged 535 attempts/season.Because 73% of the time, a QB who has thrown 600+ attempts in a season has failed to do so the next year. Because of those NFL QBs who have thrown 600+ attempts in a season, they have averaged 535 attempts the next season.Pick a reason, or pick a combination of reasons. It is MUCH MORE LIKELY that Brady's attempts will decline, rather than them going up, or even staying the same.
I think if Brady's attempts decline, that could be due to Lloyd being successful. A 40-yard TD to Lloyd might mean 5 less Brady passes on a drive than would have occurred in 2011.
 
Think I'm just going to have to disagree with most people here. I see Lloyd's last two years as a result of situations that merited him getting a huge chunk of targets -- he's been in the top-5 in the NFL the past two years with 150+. His catch % hasn't been good at all - 50.3 in 2010 and 46.7 last year. Part of that is certainly due to the less than stellar QB play, but he's been outperformed on this metric (in some cases significantly) by other WRs on his own team both years, so part of it is on him too. I don't see evidence that any light clicked on for him in 2010; rather I see a guy who was the only decent option on his teams and got a ton of targets for that reason.

In NE, he's nowhere near the only option in the passing game. He's not going to be #1, #2, or even #3. I see no way he'll even approach the target #s he'll need to achieve the numbers most people are projecting for him. I'll likely have Brady projected for 550-575 attempts when I do full projections in August, and think that Welker and Gronk are going to be far and away the top two guys in NE. I think that Hernandez is an under-rated player also (if he wasn't on the same team as the guy shattering records he'd get much more love); I don't see him getting a smaller chunk either. Lloyd's going to be fighting with everyone else for leftovers, IMO. Branch has had 90 and 74 targets the last two years; I see a realistic CEILING for Lloyd at about 100. Even with his catch percentage improving to 55% range due to Brady, it just doesn't leave any room for upside here IMO.

Of course, if Welker ends up holding out for some odd reason, or someone gets hurt or something, things will change, but for now, I see no reason and no way that the Pats are going to make wholesale changes to the structure of their offense, McDaniels or no, for a guy like Brandon Lloyd. He's a complementary piece, not a focal point, and that is exactly what his contract indicates also.

 
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Think I'm just going to have to disagree with most people here. I see Lloyd's last two years as a result of situations that merited him getting a huge chunk of targets -- he's been in the top-5 in the NFL the past two years with 150+. His catch % hasn't been good at all - 50.3 in 2010 and 46.7 last year. Part of that is certainly due to the less than stellar QB play, but he's been outperformed on this metric (in some cases significantly) by other WRs on his own team both years, so part of it is on him too. I don't see evidence that any light clicked on for him in 2010; rather I see a guy who was the only decent option on his teams and got a ton of targets for that reason.In NE, he's nowhere near the only option in the passing game. He's not going to be #1, #2, or even #3. I see no way he'll even approach the target #s he'll need to achieve the numbers most people are projecting for him. I'll likely have Brady projected for 550-575 attempts when I do full projections in August, and think that Welker and Gronk are going to be far and away the top two guys in NE. I think that Hernandez is an under-rated player also (if he wasn't on the same team as the guy shattering records he'd get much more love); I don't see him getting a smaller chunk either. Lloyd's going to be fighting with everyone else for leftovers, IMO. Branch has had 90 and 74 targets the last two years; I see a realistic CEILING for Lloyd at about 100. Even with his catch percentage improving to 55% range due to Brady, it just doesn't leave any room for upside here IMO.Of course, if Welker ends up holding out for some odd reason, or someone gets hurt or something, things will change, but for now, I see no reason and no way that the Pats are going to make wholesale changes to the structure of their offense, McDaniels or no, for a guy like Brandon Lloyd. He's a complementary piece, not a focal point, and that is exactly what his contract indicates also.
I think his catch rate could approach 60%. Catch rate by itself is a meaningless indicator of quality, IMO, and is simply a reflection of the team you're on. Playing with a great QB and a great supporting cast does wonders for your catch rate. He's going to be the third or fourth option for defenses to cover on most plays, so his catch rate will surely skyrocket.I'll go with 66 catches, 1060 yards, 8 TDs.
 
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Think I'm just going to have to disagree with most people here. I see Lloyd's last two years as a result of situations that merited him getting a huge chunk of targets -- he's been in the top-5 in the NFL the past two years with 150+. His catch % hasn't been good at all - 50.3 in 2010 and 46.7 last year. Part of that is certainly due to the less than stellar QB play, but he's been outperformed on this metric (in some cases significantly) by other WRs on his own team both years, so part of it is on him too. I don't see evidence that any light clicked on for him in 2010; rather I see a guy who was the only decent option on his teams and got a ton of targets for that reason.In NE, he's nowhere near the only option in the passing game. He's not going to be #1, #2, or even #3. I see no way he'll even approach the target #s he'll need to achieve the numbers most people are projecting for him. I'll likely have Brady projected for 550-575 attempts when I do full projections in August, and think that Welker and Gronk are going to be far and away the top two guys in NE. I think that Hernandez is an under-rated player also (if he wasn't on the same team as the guy shattering records he'd get much more love); I don't see him getting a smaller chunk either. Lloyd's going to be fighting with everyone else for leftovers, IMO. Branch has had 90 and 74 targets the last two years; I see a realistic CEILING for Lloyd at about 100. Even with his catch percentage improving to 55% range due to Brady, it just doesn't leave any room for upside here IMO.Of course, if Welker ends up holding out for some odd reason, or someone gets hurt or something, things will change, but for now, I see no reason and no way that the Pats are going to make wholesale changes to the structure of their offense, McDaniels or no, for a guy like Brandon Lloyd. He's a complementary piece, not a focal point, and that is exactly what his contract indicates also.
I agree with a lot of this . . . but not necessarily the conclusion.As I mentioned earlier, there are A LOT of mouths to feed in New England. The Big 3 (Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez) accounted for 410 of the 608 targets on the season (basically 67%). Hernandez missed 2 games or he would have seen probably another 16 targets. Basically, had Hernandez played in those two games, the Big 3 would have accounted for 70% of the Pats targets. The next most targeted receiver was Branch with 90 targets. After that, Ocho had 32 and Woodhead 31.THIS YEAR, though, things will get way more complicated. As of today (and this will most likely change), Branch is still around, as is Ocho, Edelman, and Slater. But NE added Lloyd, Gafney, and Stallworth. I don't see how they could possible keep 8 receivers, and even if they did they couldn't all play and be productive. By all accounts, Branch could end up getting cut. I also see Sttalworth getting released, as I don't see what he really adds. I would have thought they would have cut Ocho long ago, but somehow he is still around. My guess is now that we are past June 1st he will get released to ease the cap hit and/or give them more flexibility on how to account for him.It's clear to me that Lloyd won't be able to transfer over his 9.4 targets per game and Gaffney his 7.2 targets per game unless Brady throws the ball 900 times on the season. I would think that the big 3 see their targets dip some, Lloyd gets about 100 targets, and Gaffney will go back to his target rate when he was in NE the first time (50 or so on the season).My target breakdown would then be (rough numbers and assuming people are healthy).Welker 145Gronk 120Hernandez 115Lloyd 100Gaffney 50RBs 50Other WR 30Total 610As far as the running game goes, the Pats have run the ball roughly 10% less frequently than they did in their championship years. I happen to think they would benefit by running more and passing less, but they have shown otherwise. The current crop of RBs is mostly inexperienced, so it will be hard to guess how well they will do (Addai may not even make the final roster).I think NE's passing attack will be even stronger, as now they have even more bodies to drive defenders nuts.With Lloyd playing in a more high octane offense and with a better QB, I can see him getting fewer catches but for more yardage. I will give him a better catch percentage, so 60% of 100 targets = 60 receptions. Call it 16.5 ypr = 990 yards. TDs is a total guess but I would guess 6. 60-990-6. But that also means that the totals of Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez drop off some to account for that.Long story long, I don't see NE having 4 guys with 1,000 receiving yards. And if they do somehow approach that, Brady will be in for a MONSTER season.
 
Out of curiosity, why would anyone project bradys pass attempts to decline this year?
Because 612 attempts is a very high number of attempts. Because NE has averaged 536 attempts/year since Brady became the starter.Because Brady has averaged 556 attempts/year since the Patriots became a pass-centric offense in 2007.Because Josh McDaniels has never directed an offense (OC or HC) that has thrown the ball 600+ times.Because Josh McDaniels' QBs (when he was OC or HC) have averaged 535 attempts/season.Because 73% of the time, a QB who has thrown 600+ attempts in a season has failed to do so the next year. Because of those NFL QBs who have thrown 600+ attempts in a season, they have averaged 535 attempts the next season.Pick a reason, or pick a combination of reasons. It is MUCH MORE LIKELY that Brady's attempts will decline, rather than them going up, or even staying the same.
Excellent workLast year I wrote an article about coaching misconceptions, and one of them was that McDaniels was some pass happy, wildly productive difference maker.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11wood_coachhype.phpHe's not, and I think he's there as much to not rock the boat as anything.
 
Out of curiosity, why would anyone project bradys pass attempts to decline this year?
Because 612 attempts is a very high number of attempts. Because NE has averaged 536 attempts/year since Brady became the starter.Because Brady has averaged 556 attempts/year since the Patriots became a pass-centric offense in 2007.Because Josh McDaniels has never directed an offense (OC or HC) that has thrown the ball 600+ times.Because Josh McDaniels' QBs (when he was OC or HC) have averaged 535 attempts/season.Because 73% of the time, a QB who has thrown 600+ attempts in a season has failed to do so the next year. Because of those NFL QBs who have thrown 600+ attempts in a season, they have averaged 535 attempts the next season.Pick a reason, or pick a combination of reasons. It is MUCH MORE LIKELY that Brady's attempts will decline, rather than them going up, or even staying the same.
Excellent workLast year I wrote an article about coaching misconceptions, and one of them was that McDaniels was some pass happy, wildly productive difference maker.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2011/11wood_coachhype.phpHe's not, and I think he's there as much to not rock the boat as anything.
In a round about way I will respectfully disagree. I would say that both NE and McDaniels have shown a propensity for moving the ball through the air . . . meaning the total number of attempts is less important. As I think Chase mentioned earlier, if NE goes 80 yards in 3 passing plays or 80 yards on 10 shorter passing plays, either way they went 80 yards passing the ball.Here were McDaniels yardaage percentages(passing yards/total yards):2006 NE 63.3% (with HORRIBLE receiving options)2007 NE 71.9% (with Moss, Welker, and Stallworth added)2008 NE 61.0% (without Brady)2009 DEN 66.4%2010 DEN 72.3%2011 STL 63.3%By comparison, the 2011 Pats came in at 74.2%.IMO, a better barometer will be % of offense gained via pass and via run. Similarly, WE KNOW tha Pats can move the ball passing AND they made strides to IMPROVE the passing attack. On the flip side, they lost BJGE and only added Addai (at the moment) as a retread. The Pats running game has been going in the wrong direction over the years in terms of number of attempts and ypc. With Vereen and Ridley as the main guys now, how they will do will be anyone's guess.Looking at the 07 and 10 seasons, that leads me to think the Pats will again have 70% of their offensive yardage generated through the pass . . . no matter how many attempts Brady ends up with.ETA: Of the 28 times a QB has thrown for 4500 yards in a season, 16 times that QB had fewer than 600 passing attempts. Peyton Manning did it in 497 attempts in 2004. Aaron Rodgers did it last year in 502 attempts.
 
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Lloyd's bounced around the league as much as he has because of locker room issues. If he were a special talent it's something teams will try to work through, but since he's not (good, but definitely not special) the cord continues to get cut from him.

I don't know what to make of him in New England, but the only takeaway from him being bounced all over the league is that if he is a problem in New England then he will be shown the door. If he's not he'll have his role. It's north of Deion Branch and south of Welker + the TE's. How much south? Don't know, but given his current ADP I'm waiting a round and taking Decker, Denarius Moore, Garcon, or Meachem instead.

 
Good discussion.

I'm having trouble in general this year with passing projections. So many guys last year put up stats that would have seemed absurd just this time last year. I've always been pretty conservative with projections, relying a ton on historical data as a basis. Might be time to rethink that with a few teams. It just doesn't feel right expecting 600 attempts, 5000 yards, or 40 TDs out of any QB, but it's probably fairly likely to happen again in 2012 on at least one, if not more, of NE, NO, GB, or Detroit.

 
Floyd has never done me any favors in Fantasy Football and I think people are obsessing over his one year wonder in Denver. This guy isn't even on my draft board.

 
I dont know how valid or fair my opinion in this debate is considering I'm openly a Lloyd fan and am biased, but I dont understand how you can claim hes washed up or a one year guy. go watch what he did with the Broncos two years ago, it was truly incredible. This year can go a lot of ways for Lloyd depending on the amount of targets he gets and the way New England chooses to use him, but I can almost guarantee Lloyd will make the most of those targets and make some plays only a select few WRs can. The Patriots had no deep threat last year and I would assume that Lloyd will fill that roll nicely. Even if they put him in the Branch role of last year, I think he puts up a top 25 season minimum. Dont sleep on lloyd in redraft.

 

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