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Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Torrey Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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Smith burst onto the scene with a huge game in Week 3 last season. He then followed that with a 1 catch for 1 yard performance in Week 4. His stats were a bit eratic from week-to-week, but that is not uncommon for many WRs, particular those that are primarily deep threats like Smith. Overall, he had a very nice rookie campaign, and with Boldin aging there may be more opportunity for receivers to step up in BAL in the near future. I just don't know if Smith is capable of a role where he is asked to be more than the primary deep threat. Only time will tell. -For now, I am projecting him to play largely the same role in 2012 as he did in 2011, but I do think he has a real shot at producing more.

Recs: 55

Yds: 900

TDs: 7

 
I like Torrey, I don't love Flacco. I think Torrey has a lot of streaky games but puts up low-end WR2, high-end WR3 numbers.

60/1050/8

 
Torrey Smith is a good #3WR to have in that he can post big games when he catches a deep TD. Problem is....BAL is a run first team with a good defense, which limits the opportunities he can get. At his current ADP (WR29) I would rather gamble on other WRs drafted around him, like Eric Decker or Reggie Wayne or Antonio Brown or Brandon Lloyd. All these WRs have much more upside either playing with better QBs in passing offenses or in Wayne's case, being the #1 option on a team is likely to have to throw the ball.

63 rec, 950 yds, 6 TD

 
Keep up the low projections, boys.I want this boy on da CHEAP.
What do someone else's projections have to do with how cheap you can get him in your leagues? At least make sense if you are going to post in a projections thread and NOT offer your own projection. Unreal.70/1100/7Boldin is nearly done, but that's not exactly a good thing. Teams will focus on stopping Torrey and no matter how good Flacco THINKS he is, he's still Joe Flacco.
 
I traded away Torrey this offseason. His 2 big games accounted for almost 40% of his yardage and over 50% of his TDs. I'm not a fan of these Lee Evans/Desean Jackson types of WRs. I don't think people will sleep on him like that horrible STL secondary did last season.

 
Not a big believer in he or Flacco. He'll do okay, but be spiky.

60-65 catches, 900-975 yards, 6-7 TDs

 
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He could be a Mike Wallace type, but he has factors working against him. One is that, unlike Pitt, BAL is a run first offense and they run everything through Rice. Second, Ben is an elite QB(at least in NFL). Flacco, contrary to his own claims, is not a top 12 QB. Third, Torrey has no one like Antonio Brown who can take attention away from him. Teams can put their no.1 CB on Torrey and then have a safety shadow him and he won't do much.

62 rec, 921 yards, 7 TDs

 
He is obviously much more valuable in non-ppr. It would seem he will be pretty inconsistent from week to week, but is the type of guy you can grab late and he still can propel you to 1 or 2 wins. With the way the Ravens are handling Flacco, he (Flacco) should be very focused on making the money he thinks he deserves, and thus he may have his best season yet. He has a strong arm and Torrey's speed matches well with that. I do think that while he is explosive, Torrey will get much more attention this year, and even be considered the #1 by many opponents. If that happens, he may be in some trouble because, while most of these cornerbacks won't shadow him, he will face: Joe Hayden (twice), Jonathan Joseph, Nnamdi, Brandon Flowers, the steelers defense (twice). He already only had 5 games of 70+ yards last year, and the possibility of facing very tough defenses in nearly half his games is bad for his fantasy outlook. I think at his FFC adp as the #29 wr is pretty reasonable. For 12 teams, that is pretty much a mid-tier wr3. Some people I think will overrate him and rely on him as a wr2, which I think is a bad idea. He's going to throw up a good amount of stinkers. As a wr3/flex play, he is a good guy to have because of his upside. I'm going to be a bit on the downside of his projection, but even with the negative things I said I do think he has the upside to outperform my projections by a decent amount, and finish a wr2 due to the random big games he has (like those two 150+ yard games last year).

58 rec

15.6 ypc

905 yards

6 td

 
Keep up the low projections, boys.

I want this boy on da CHEAP.
What do someone else's projections have to do with how cheap you can get him in your leagues? At least make sense if you are going to post in a projections thread and NOT offer your own projection. Unreal.
Well Les Miserables, when the community as a majority has low projections for a player I personally believe will break out... It plays on the mental fears other members of my league may have in drafting him.Thus, I get him cheaper/at a later round.

Sound good?

K.

 
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Keep up the low projections, boys.

I want this boy on da CHEAP.
What do someone else's projections have to do with how cheap you can get him in your leagues? At least make sense if you are going to post in a projections thread and NOT offer your own projection. Unreal.
Well Les Miserables, when the community as a majority has low projections for a player I personally believe will break out... It plays on the mental fears other members of my league may have in drafting him.Thus, I get him cheaper/at a later round.

Sound good?

K.
You call THREE projections prior to your post "the community as a majority"? Ooof.Sounds like some ultra competitive leagues you play in.

 
Keep up the low projections, boys.

I want this boy on da CHEAP.
What do someone else's projections have to do with how cheap you can get him in your leagues? At least make sense if you are going to post in a projections thread and NOT offer your own projection. Unreal.
Well Les Miserables, when the community as a majority has low projections for a player I personally believe will break out... It plays on the mental fears other members of my league may have in drafting him.Thus, I get him cheaper/at a later round.

Sound good?

K.
You call THREE projections prior to your post "the community as a majority"? Ooof.Sounds like some ultra competitive leagues you play in.
Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made?Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.

 
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Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made.

Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.
Did you happen to notice where you entered a projections thread and offered nothing? :thumbup:

 
Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made.

Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.
Did you happen to notice where you entered a projections thread and offered nothing? :thumbup:
I offered you an ###-whooping on attention to detail.
You're SO angry. Should probably work on that.Also, maybe work on posting your projection for Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens.

 
Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made.

Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.
Did you happen to notice where you entered a projections thread and offered nothing? :thumbup:
I offered you an ###-whooping on attention to detail.
You're SO angry. Should probably work on that.Also, maybe work on posting your projection for Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens.
Victors celebrate, and that's what I am doing.As for my projection... It'd just blow your mind.

 
'rizzler said:
'doowain said:
'rizzler said:
'doowain said:
'rizzler said:
Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made.

Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.
Did you happen to notice where you entered a projections thread and offered nothing? :thumbup:
I offered you an ###-whooping on attention to detail.
You're SO angry. Should probably work on that.Also, maybe work on posting your projection for Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens.
Victors celebrate, and that's what I am doing.As for my projection... It'd just blow your mind.
Still no projection. Yet you keep coming back.
 
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'rizzler said:
'doowain said:
'rizzler said:
'doowain said:
'rizzler said:
Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made.

Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.
Did you happen to notice where you entered a projections thread and offered nothing? :thumbup:
I offered you an ###-whooping on attention to detail.
You're SO angry. Should probably work on that.Also, maybe work on posting your projection for Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens.
Victors celebrate, and that's what I am doing.As for my projection... It'd just blow your mind.
Still no projection. Yet you keep coming back.
Mind Blown
 
'rizzler said:
'doowain said:
'rizzler said:
'doowain said:
'rizzler said:
Did you happen to notice the "keep up the low projections" statement I made.

Go to an ESL program, then return to me and tell me what that means.
Did you happen to notice where you entered a projections thread and offered nothing? :thumbup:
I offered you an ###-whooping on attention to detail.
You're SO angry. Should probably work on that.Also, maybe work on posting your projection for Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens.
Victors celebrate, and that's what I am doing.As for my projection... It'd just blow your mind.
Still no projection. Yet you keep coming back.
Mind Blown
:lmao:
 
Not trying to take sides here, but you should provide some analysis and projections in a spotlight thread. If you want to call other people's projections too low, you should say why and then offer what you think he'll do... that's how these spotlight threads work.

 
Smith is an interesting player this year. He is the 29th WR off the board right now which sounds about right if you expect 800-1000 yards and 4-7 TD. However, he's got quite a bit of upside considering he finished WR23 last year on just 14 starts (with the benefit of two huge games).

I'm not someone who thinks Boldin is done and I expect Boldin to still be Flacco's favorite target, but I think there are room for two WRs on this team. I can't say I'm a huge Flacco fan, but I think he's a good QB who had been stuck in sub-500 pass attempt purgatory. He finally got his chance last year, attempting 53 more passes than the year before but only completing 6 more passes for 12 less yards. Very strange considering the offense didn't change. His 6.7 ypa was the worst of his four year career. Should Baltimore run the same number of passing plays again next year and Flacco regain his 7.4 ypa form, he'll have 4000 yards to share amongst Boldin, Smith, Dickson, and Pitta. With Smith's performance as a rookie without the benefit of an offseason, I like him for 110-120 targets next year.

120 x .55 = 66 rec x 16 ypr = 1056 yds 7 TD

At WR29, I think he presents better value than most around him, but I can't say he's my preferred player in that range. I'd really like to get Lloyd at WR27 and I wouldn't mind waiting to WR36 to see how Rice can do with Flynn. I feel like Meachem at WR32 presents more upside, as well.

 
I don't see Smith necessarily getting more targets this year, but his catch ratio may go up. Boldin is still there as a reliable target, and I believe both TEs will be involved more as this seems to be a trend in the NFL.

I don't see Flacco throwing more this year. Flacco had about 50 attempts in weeks 3 (that was the BIG game for Smith) as well as in each of weeks 8 to 10, where Smith totalled 26 targets. The Ravens certainly don't want Flacco to repeatedly put the ball in the air about 50 times a game. Flacco was simply not consistent enough to justify him airing it out any given Sunday, and with R.Rice and the Ravens's defense, he will probably not have to anyway. Two or three shots downfield and two or three more to the sidelines may be what to expect for Smith per game, which will be around 100 targets in total this year. The problem for us fantasy owners though is to predict when Smith has a big game and catches one of the deep balls for a TD, as compared to those games with less than five catches (he had 9 of those last year). Good luck with that.

60/950/6 sound about right to me.

Truly Yours

 
I think it is worth mentioning that the Ravens D is likely going to be diminished this year w/o Suggs and with the fact that some of their key players are in decline.

 
Ray Rice only catches 73% of his targets, behind 20+ other players

Last year Boldin and Smith only caught 53.8 and 52.6% of their targets.

Pitta, the blocking TE and check down target caught 70%.

Dickson, who runs short-intermediate routes, caught 60%.

The numbers speak of either A) inaccurate QB, B) WR corps that can't get open or with a ton of drops, or C) facing elite pass defenses over the course of the season.

Having watched a few games, I choose inaccurate QB as the strongest contributor. Last season Flacco was 15th (average) in deep passes attempted and 31st in completion %age. He is not accurate at short, intermediate, or long range. Flacco has started in 16 games for each of his 4 seasons and has still not exceeded 3700 yards. If Flacco were to make an absolutely huge improvement in passing, he might jump to 4200 yards, but that would probably be evenly distributed between the two TEs, Boldin and Smith.

As for Smith, I think it more likely that his development includes more short and intermediate routes, an increase in receptions, but a decrease in YPC (shorter routes, safety will know to stay over the top). I think of Smith more in terms of ceiling than floor...

70/1150/10 is the cap, but my projection is more in the 60/950/7 range. I expect more consistent week to week production and fewer big plays. Definitely not high upside WR2 range, but a bargain 7th round WR2/3 candidate if he is there.

 
Smith is an interesting player this year. He is the 29th WR off the board right now which sounds about right if you expect 800-1000 yards and 4-7 TD. However, he's got quite a bit of upside considering he finished WR23 last year on just 14 starts (with the benefit of two huge games).I'm not someone who thinks Boldin is done and I expect Boldin to still be Flacco's favorite target, but I think there are room for two WRs on this team. I can't say I'm a huge Flacco fan, but I think he's a good QB who had been stuck in sub-500 pass attempt purgatory. He finally got his chance last year, attempting 53 more passes than the year before but only completing 6 more passes for 12 less yards. Very strange considering the offense didn't change. His 6.7 ypa was the worst of his four year career. Should Baltimore run the same number of passing plays again next year and Flacco regain his 7.4 ypa form, he'll have 4000 yards to share amongst Boldin, Smith, Dickson, and Pitta. With Smith's performance as a rookie without the benefit of an offseason, I like him for 110-120 targets next year.120 x .55 = 66 rec x 16 ypr = 1056 yds 7 TDAt WR29, I think he presents better value than most around him, but I can't say he's my preferred player in that range. I'd really like to get Lloyd at WR27 and I wouldn't mind waiting to WR36 to see how Rice can do with Flynn. I feel like Meachem at WR32 presents more upside, as well.
I'm beginning to feel like I was too low on him earlier. With Lloyd moving up to WR19, I will be happy to take a chance on Smith at his current ADP. I feel like a chump looking into preseason games for more than just depth charts, but it is hard to ignore those week 3 numbers... I certainly haven't swung to the point where I think he's a lock for 80 rec, but it sure wouldn't surprise me. Flacco took a step back last year. Should he not just catch back up to his 2010 form, but take a step forward, watch out.
 
I'm beginning to feel like I was too low on him earlier. With Lloyd moving up to WR19, I will be happy to take a chance on Smith at his current ADP. I feel like a chump looking into preseason games for more than just depth charts, but it is hard to ignore those week 3 numbers... I certainly haven't swung to the point where I think he's a lock for 80 rec, but it sure wouldn't surprise me. Flacco took a step back last year. Should he not just catch back up to his 2010 form, but take a step forward, watch out.

It's not just the stats...he worked himself wide open on the intermediate routes. Looks very promising.

 
This guy is going 1300/10 this year in the newly revitalized Ravens' pass offense. Their staff is actually a good one. They are on record as saying they realize their gameplan has been holding them back from ascending to the league's elite.

Flacco unleashed, Smith to benefit, Boldin in the slot where he belongs, Rice maximized in the passing game. Torrey is one of this year's five-star steals for anyone who is able to separate the preseason BS from the preseason gold nuggets.

 
This guy is going 1300/10 this year in the newly revitalized Ravens' pass offense. Their staff is actually a good one. They are on record as saying they realize their gameplan has been holding them back from ascending to the league's elite.Flacco unleashed, Smith to benefit, Boldin in the slot where he belongs, Rice maximized in the passing game. Torrey is one of this year's five-star steals for anyone who is able to separate the preseason BS from the preseason gold nuggets.
Agree 100%. He is a WR2 out of the gate with WR1 upside.
 
70, 1,100, 8 = 228 PPR, 14.3 PPR PPG
Not a material change, but I've seen enough to go ahead and adjust this.78, 1,200, 8 = 246 PPR, 15.4 PPR PPGI figured it'd be year 3 before we saw the top 12-15 finish but he's a nice 2.
 
This guy is going 1300/10 this year in the newly revitalized Ravens' pass offense. Their staff is actually a good one. They are on record as saying they realize their gameplan has been holding them back from ascending to the league's elite.Flacco unleashed, Smith to benefit, Boldin in the slot where he belongs, Rice maximized in the passing game. Torrey is one of this year's five-star steals for anyone who is able to separate the preseason BS from the preseason gold nuggets.
I agree. I'm gunning to get this guy as my WR2 knowing that he has the potential to be a lower-end WR1.
 
Prediction: Both Flacco and TSmith finish top 10 at their position when Baltimore unleashes the pass this year. Book it.

 
GordonGekko, considering all the following:

1. Torrey Smith is a phenomenal natural athlete

2. Torrey Smith, for all we've seen so far, is a good kid who works hard

3. The Ravens are a well run franchise that has a good coaching staff and front office

4. Torrey Smith is 23 years old and entering his 2nd year

Why do you seem to think that Smith can't improve on his hands and his route running?

 
'GordonGekko said:
GordonGekko, considering all the following:1. Torrey Smith is a phenomenal natural athlete2. Torrey Smith, for all we've seen so far, is a good kid who works hard3. The Ravens are a well run franchise that has a good coaching staff and front office4. Torrey Smith is 23 years old and entering his 2nd yearWhy do you seem to think that Smith can't improve on his hands and his route running?
Because, no offense, none of that matters when it comes to catching the ball. Instinctively, it's an element of a someone's game that they can either do well or they don't. Yes, he can improve his route running. But he has a lot of skill sets that many other raw burners don't have, I'm not calling this kid Troy Williamson 2.0 or anything like that. But I think he will always struggle with his catching skills. With the new rules for pro passing, more teams are shifting out of the zone and playing much more man to man, which includes more press coverage. I think Smith still struggles when corners jam him at the line and have the recovery speed and technique to stay on him. To some degree, this becomes a question of personnel. Given the AFC North, I think Smith can shred up the Bengals, who seem to be asking for poison by being able to stop the run but seemingly not the pass. I don't think they have the personnel to stop him, I don't buy into Dre Kirkpatrick and they have an odd balance of too young and alternatively guy with too many miles on them asked to do too much. I don't know how the potential suspension will impact the Brown's Joe Haden and his mental disposition. They were good last season against the pass, rated 2nd in the league, but again, Haden is a lynchpin in what they want to do. There's a lot of young talent on the Browns, but I suspect that defense will be on the field a lot this year. I would say the Steelers still have enough juice left to contain Smith. The Steelers are weak against a short passing game, which Smith doesn't exploit well because he struggles against the press and has iffy route running skills. Keenan Lewis, takes over the #2 corner role from William Gay, is IMHO very underrated, and Cortez Allen and Curtis Brown are both good young players. It's nice mix of youth to balance out older guys like Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamu.Fantasy wise, I see Smith as a feast or famine type of player. Will blow up for you every couple of weeks and then disappear a few others ( mostly I'd attribute this to Flacco) But for where Smith is going in most drafts, I think he's a value for a WR3 with upside, and good prospects for a career year. Will he give you WR2 consistency? No, I doubt it, but he's not coming to you at WR2 cost. The weeks he blows up, he will tease people into thinking he can be more than he is right now. IMHO, in fantasy, I think there is some danger in the "Well someone has to get fed the ball right?" mentality, and often it encourages guys to see players fantasy wise with a uptick that isn't realistic ( i.e. trying to see a WR2 as a WR1 or seeing a WR3 as a WR2) In real life, I love Torrey Smith. The kid is relentless, he legitimately will bleed it all out if he had to do it to win, and in the open field, the kid probably gets to that 3rd gear, in part, on sheer will. It's hard not to root for a guy who doesn't just want to punch someone in the mouth, but wants to punch everyone in the mouth. But how I feel about him as a real player is not how I have to see him as a fantasy guy. Guys available later in most drafts are available for a reason. Doesn't mean they can't help you. Just means you have to look at the relative tradeoffs.
Wow, can I get the Cliff Notes version?
 
'GordonGekko said:
GordonGekko, considering all the following:

1. Torrey Smith is a phenomenal natural athlete

2. Torrey Smith, for all we've seen so far, is a good kid who works hard

3. The Ravens are a well run franchise that has a good coaching staff and front office

4. Torrey Smith is 23 years old and entering his 2nd year

Why do you seem to think that Smith can't improve on his hands and his route running?
Because, no offense, none of that matters when it comes to catching the ball. Instinctively, it's an element of a someone's game that they can either do well or they don't.

Yes, he can improve his route running. But he has a lot of skill sets that many other raw burners don't have, I'm not calling this kid Troy Williamson 2.0 or anything like that. But I think he will always struggle with his catching skills.

With the new rules for pro passing, more teams are shifting out of the zone and playing much more man to man, which includes more press coverage. I think Smith still struggles when corners jam him at the line and have the recovery speed and technique to stay on him. To some degree, this becomes a question of personnel.

Given the AFC North, I think Smith can shred up the Bengals, who seem to be asking for poison by being able to stop the run but seemingly not the pass. I don't think they have the personnel to stop him, I don't buy into Dre Kirkpatrick and they have an odd balance of too young and alternatively guy with too many miles on them asked to do too much.

I don't know how the potential suspension will impact the Brown's Joe Haden and his mental disposition. They were good last season against the pass, rated 2nd in the league, but again, Haden is a lynchpin in what they want to do. There's a lot of young talent on the Browns, but I suspect that defense will be on the field a lot this year.

I would say the Steelers still have enough juice left to contain Smith. The Steelers are weak against a short passing game, which Smith doesn't exploit well because he struggles against the press and has iffy route running skills. Keenan Lewis, takes over the #2 corner role from William Gay, is IMHO very underrated, and Cortez Allen and Curtis Brown are both good young players. It's nice mix of youth to balance out older guys like Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamu.

Fantasy wise, I see Smith as a feast or famine type of player. Will blow up for you every couple of weeks and then disappear a few others ( mostly I'd attribute this to Flacco)

But for where Smith is going in most drafts, I think he's a value for a WR3 with upside, and good prospects for a career year. Will he give you WR2 consistency? No, I doubt it, but he's not coming to you at WR2 cost. The weeks he blows up, he will tease people into thinking he can be more than he is right now.

IMHO, in fantasy, I think there is some danger in the "Well someone has to get fed the ball right?" mentality, and often it encourages guys to see players fantasy wise with a uptick that isn't realistic ( i.e. trying to see a WR2 as a WR1 or seeing a WR3 as a WR2)

In real life, I love Torrey Smith. The kid is relentless, he legitimately will bleed it all out if he had to do it to win, and in the open field, the kid probably gets to that 3rd gear, in part, on sheer will. It's hard not to root for a guy who doesn't just want to punch someone in the mouth, but wants to punch everyone in the mouth. But how I feel about him as a real player is not how I have to see him as a fantasy guy.

Guys available later in most drafts are available for a reason. Doesn't mean they can't help you. Just means you have to look at the relative tradeoffs.
Wow, can I get the Cliff Notes version?
[*]Smith plays in the AFC North

[*]I think he's great

[*]I don't think he's that great

[*]Gosh, do I love to see myself type

 
'GordonGekko said:
GordonGekko, considering all the following:1. Torrey Smith is a phenomenal natural athlete2. Torrey Smith, for all we've seen so far, is a good kid who works hard3. The Ravens are a well run franchise that has a good coaching staff and front office4. Torrey Smith is 23 years old and entering his 2nd yearWhy do you seem to think that Smith can't improve on his hands and his route running?
Because, no offense, none of that matters when it comes to catching the ball. Instinctively, it's an element of a someone's game that they can either do well or they don't. Yes, he can improve his route running. But he has a lot of skill sets that many other raw burners don't have, I'm not calling this kid Troy Williamson 2.0 or anything like that. But I think he will always struggle with his catching skills. With the new rules for pro passing, more teams are shifting out of the zone and playing much more man to man, which includes more press coverage. I think Smith still struggles when corners jam him at the line and have the recovery speed and technique to stay on him. To some degree, this becomes a question of personnel. Given the AFC North, I think Smith can shred up the Bengals, who seem to be asking for poison by being able to stop the run but seemingly not the pass. I don't think they have the personnel to stop him, I don't buy into Dre Kirkpatrick and they have an odd balance of too young and alternatively guy with too many miles on them asked to do too much. I don't know how the potential suspension will impact the Brown's Joe Haden and his mental disposition. They were good last season against the pass, rated 2nd in the league, but again, Haden is a lynchpin in what they want to do. There's a lot of young talent on the Browns, but I suspect that defense will be on the field a lot this year. I would say the Steelers still have enough juice left to contain Smith. The Steelers are weak against a short passing game, which Smith doesn't exploit well because he struggles against the press and has iffy route running skills. Keenan Lewis, takes over the #2 corner role from William Gay, is IMHO very underrated, and Cortez Allen and Curtis Brown are both good young players. It's nice mix of youth to balance out older guys like Ike Taylor, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamu.Fantasy wise, I see Smith as a feast or famine type of player. Will blow up for you every couple of weeks and then disappear a few others ( mostly I'd attribute this to Flacco) But for where Smith is going in most drafts, I think he's a value for a WR3 with upside, and good prospects for a career year. Will he give you WR2 consistency? No, I doubt it, but he's not coming to you at WR2 cost. The weeks he blows up, he will tease people into thinking he can be more than he is right now. IMHO, in fantasy, I think there is some danger in the "Well someone has to get fed the ball right?" mentality, and often it encourages guys to see players fantasy wise with a uptick that isn't realistic ( i.e. trying to see a WR2 as a WR1 or seeing a WR3 as a WR2) In real life, I love Torrey Smith. The kid is relentless, he legitimately will bleed it all out if he had to do it to win, and in the open field, the kid probably gets to that 3rd gear, in part, on sheer will. It's hard not to root for a guy who doesn't just want to punch someone in the mouth, but wants to punch everyone in the mouth. But how I feel about him as a real player is not how I have to see him as a fantasy guy. Guys available later in most drafts are available for a reason. Doesn't mean they can't help you. Just means you have to look at the relative tradeoffs.
:goodposting:
 
GordonGekko said:
6) Players drop with their ADP and are available in later rounds, usually for a reason. If you aren't objective about a player, you can talk yourself into what you want to see instead of what's there. You can still like a player while still seeing his fantasy limitations.
You've put some thought into your posts and made some good points, but I've got to harp on this one. The reason a player's ADP is where it is, is nothing more than public perception. And the public isn't very smart. The ADP isn't going to shift very much because smart players use the ADP to their advantage. Why draft a player in the 3rd when you can get him in the 5th/6th?Saying a player has an ADP for a reason is like saying a certain team is a 3 point favorite because they are the better team. A common but incorrect line of reason. Vegas doesn't set the lines to be right. They set the lines according to public perception with the goal of getting people to bet both sides equally. That's how they make consistent money. A player's ADP is the same. However, you'll find players like Brandon Lloyd whose ADPs rise as we get closer to the season because smart players are starting to reach a bit just to make sure they land these guys.
 
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Torrey Smith will be a top 12 FF WR. Baltimore used him wrong last year by just sending him on streaks. From what I see from him this preseason, and mainly Flacco, he's going to get the ball in space more this season and use his ridiculous speed and strength. For all the Mike Wallace comparisons imagine if MW had the chops to run threw the middle, and then there was Torrey Smith. The 11 targets in the game he played was a tell.

 
Torrey Smith will be a top 12 FF WR. Baltimore used him wrong last year by just sending him on streaks. From what I see from him this preseason, and mainly Flacco, he's going to get the ball in space more this season and use his ridiculous speed and strength. For all the Mike Wallace comparisons imagine if MW had the chops to run threw the middle, and then there was Torrey Smith. The 11 targets in the game he played was a tell.
That's what I saw as well. Might start him over Stevie Johnson and/or DWill this week at my flex.
 
'GordonGekko said:
Wow, can I get the Cliff Notes version?
1) Pro passing rules make all base defenses suffer, but it makes it harder on zone than it does man to man, more teams are drafting man to man corners and playing more man to man. 2) Smith's skill set does not fully exploit the pro passing rules. He's got speed and nose for the ball, but not great route running/timing and has questionable mitts to use the center of the field. His skill set also makes him struggle against man to man and press coverage at this point in his career. 3) When defenses suffer across the board, the way to combat that is two fold. A) Disguise your schemes better before the snap and B) Improve your secondary personnel relative to your division.4) Flacco is not an elite QB, I don't think he can read coverages and decipher the disguises well enough or fast enough nor does he consistently get the ball where it needs to be, this all hurts Smith. 5) AFC North personnel lends itself to a "feast or famine" scenario, much like Smith gave people last year. Too often people look at the end result of a season and not how consistent those stats are week to week. Consistency in FF matters. 6) Players drop with their ADP and are available in later rounds, usually for a reason. If you aren't objective about a player, you can talk yourself into what you want to see instead of what's there. You can still like a player while still seeing his fantasy limitations. 7) Your mother wants to know if you always talk like this. Being a ##### bag trolling for a fight. She'd tell you stop on her own, but she's still in my bathroom flossing. She makes me a nice roast beef sandwich, she told me she never made one for your dad. I've been here a lot longer than you son, next time you want to troll me, come heavy or not at all.
6 - great insight.What was gronk's adp last year?7 - i think i found out what happened to the shark pool
 
'GordonGekko said:
Wow, can I get the Cliff Notes version?
1) Pro passing rules make all base defenses suffer, but it makes it harder on zone than it does man to man, more teams are drafting man to man corners and playing more man to man. 2) Smith's skill set does not fully exploit the pro passing rules. He's got speed and nose for the ball, but not great route running/timing and has questionable mitts to use the center of the field. His skill set also makes him struggle against man to man and press coverage at this point in his career. 3) When defenses suffer across the board, the way to combat that is two fold. A) Disguise your schemes better before the snap and B) Improve your secondary personnel relative to your division.4) Flacco is not an elite QB, I don't think he can read coverages and decipher the disguises well enough or fast enough nor does he consistently get the ball where it needs to be, this all hurts Smith. 5) AFC North personnel lends itself to a "feast or famine" scenario, much like Smith gave people last year. Too often people look at the end result of a season and not how consistent those stats are week to week. Consistency in FF matters. 6) Players drop with their ADP and are available in later rounds, usually for a reason. If you aren't objective about a player, you can talk yourself into what you want to see instead of what's there. You can still like a player while still seeing his fantasy limitations. 7) Your mother wants to know if you always talk like this. Being a ##### bag trolling for a fight. She'd tell you stop on her own, but she's still in my bathroom flossing. She makes me a nice roast beef sandwich, she told me she never made one for your dad. I've been here a lot longer than you son, next time you want to troll me, come heavy or not at all.
Can we give this alias back to one of the grownups? This is a little too whiny and f@ggy to tolerate.
 

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