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Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Antonio Gates Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Gates is getting older and injury issues have hindered him the last couple of seasons. If he truly is healthy, and can remain relatively so for the entire season, then he should be in store for a big year. However, I think there is a real chance he could fight through some issues again this year. Only time will tell. -And while the VJax departure leaves a good slice of receiving yardage/tds available for other receivers in SD, I would expect most of that stuff would go to the WRs, yet Rivers could well lean on Gates a touch more this season.

Recs: 75

Yds: 975

TDs: 9

 
I'm optimistic, but you have to have a quality plan B.

I have him in a dynasty with Greg Olsen as a backup, I traded for Jimmy Graham with plans of trading Antonio Gates but after seeing just how soft the market is for Gates I moved Graham again instead.

In redrafts if his price is lesser as I expect it to be I'll take the plunge with a similar plan, in leagues with shallower benches I may not pull the trigger though. Depends if I think I can find a decent TE on waivers to cover any injury.

 
I'm optimistic, but you have to have a quality plan B.I have him in a dynasty with Greg Olsen as a backup, I traded for Jimmy Graham with plans of trading Antonio Gates but after seeing just how soft the market is for Gates I moved Graham again instead. In redrafts if his price is lesser as I expect it to be I'll take the plunge with a similar plan, in leagues with shallower benches I may not pull the trigger though. Depends if I think I can find a decent TE on waivers to cover any injury.
Yeah, in dynasty, I would expect the market to be soft for Gates, given his inj issues and age. Things will have to work out just right for him to have a couple/few more big seasons, but it is possible (I particularly like him this year). On the flipside, age and injuries could finally derail him and his production could tank. Gates is a risky player at this point, but his upside is still quite high, and that is the appeal for me (though I don't own him in any leagues... plan to look hard at him in redraft). I'm with ya though, if you own Gates in a dynasty league, having a solid backup seems wise… or at the very least, start grooming his possible replacement if you can find a young TE with decent upside.
 
Gates per game production has not really fallen as he has aged. But the last two seasons he has missed games because of injury.

I think you have to assume he will miss some games, but I think it reasonable to expect comparable per game production. Let's assume 13 games again, as last year. And let's base production on average of the past 3 seasons.

During the past three seasons he has averaged 4.9 receptions/game. He averaged 14 yards per catch. And he has caught 1 TD for every 7.72 receptions.

13 games: Receptions, 64, 896 yards, 8 TDs.

Given the departure of Jackson, IF Gates stays fully healthy, he could improve drastically on all these numbers. But given his injury history and his age, I think this is a reasonable projection.

 
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been debating on trading gates, but couldnt find enough value for him, so i traded for finley and picked up moeaki as insurance. but if he can return to his old form i will have an even better chance at winning my league.

not counting on gates, but im hoping hes close to 900 and around 8-10 tds.

 
Agreed in dynasties you must have a young TE on your roster, such as Gresham. I expect Gates to miss a few games. That said...

65rec 850yds 9tds

 
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Yea most Gates owners will be better off holding on as his production will far outweigh what you will probably get for him. Though he can be used as a "cherry on top" in some trades that are one player short of going through.

I'm not very confident in San Diego's WR's this year so I see a double edged sword there. More opportunities but more defensive attention for Gates. He's not the best TE in the league anymore, but he's the 3rd best with great value, especially in redrafts.

He'll most likely be somewhere around 75 Receptions/850 Yards, which isn't very elite anymore considering a good 10 TE's can probably get there this year. But his TD potential is what pushes him ahead of everyone else (except Gronk/Graham). I can honestly see him scoring 10-15 TDs IF he stays healthy, and I'm completely aware that 13 TDs is his career high.

 
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Gates per game production has not really fallen as he has aged. But the last two seasons he has missed games because of injury.

I think you have to assume he will miss some games, but I think it reasonable to expect comparable per game production. Let's assume 13 games again, as last year. And let's base production on average of the past 3 seasons.

During the past three seasons he has averaged 4.9 receptions/game. He averaged 14 yards per catch. And he has caught 1 TD for every 7.72 receptions.

13 games: Receptions, 64, 896 yards, 8 TDs.

Given the departure of Jackson, IF Gates stays fully healthy, he could improve drastically on all these numbers. But given his injury history and his age, I think this is a reasonable projection.
I don't agree with expecting him to miss games, but I agree going by points per game is a great way to approach a projection for Gates.His per game averages in 2010, the season where Vincent Jackson sat out the first 12 games, are outstanding. He averaged 78.2 yards per game and 1 TD per game during that season. Philip Rivers leaned on Gates big time with Jackson out of the lineup. We can expect Rivers to do that again with an overhauled WR corps in San Diego.

In 2011 he averaged 64.83 yards and .58 TDs. If you combine those two seasons we get a 16 game projection of 1,040 yards and 11 TDs. I realize this would be a career year for Gates, but i don't predict injuries, and current news on Gates regarding his injury is positive.

Coach Norv Turner indicated that Antonio Gates (foot) is finally back to pre-injury form. "Gates looks great -— he's back," Turner said. "Physically, he's back to where we want him to be. "Gates is joining teammates for OTAs after spending last offseason recovering from a plantar fascia injury.
It may not be logical to expect that to be his end of season numbers, but the important thing to take away from this is Antonio Gates can keep up with the elite TEs on a points per game basis, and you can get him a few rounds later.
 
My projections are based on a full season, but I don't believe Gates is going to be able to stay healthy for the full season. For that reason, I would avoid drafting Gates, unless he dropped beyond his ADP. I would feel the need to draft a reliable back-up TE if I did end up with Gates on my roster.

115 targets, 79 receptions, 950 yards, 9 TD

 
After owning Gates in 2010 and reading all about his injury I was very wary of him last year. That injury is going to bother him for the rest of his life. When he sat out four weeks, I felt confident I'd made the right decision. However, he put up good numbers when he got back on the field. In 11 straight games (no bye week in that span to rest up), he caught 56 of 74 targets with 7 touchdowns. Extrapolate that to 16 games and you've got 81 catches, 1024 yds, and 10 TD. The bad news is that he averaged a relatively low 12.6 ypr during that span and his catch % was about 8.5% higher than his career average, meaning his reception total might have been inflated. But the main thing I took from that was that he learned how to play with the injury.

With Vincent Jackson gone, Gates has to be the top threat near the end zone. Of course opponents will know this, so it could be argued that it'll be a wash, but with Rivers as his QB I'm giving Gates the nod here over the defense. He was scoring like crazy in 2010 without VJ, so I predict he'll see a bump this year, too. I also expect him to see more targets than last year with VJ gone, although I'm not going to predict a huge jump. Maybe 7.0 targets/game - a number he has topped five times in his career. It would not be shocking to see him exceed those targets, particularly if Meachem disappoints.

16g x 7.0t x 67% = 75 rec, 950 yds (12.67ypr), 13 TD

 
If you owned Antonio Gates last year (I did), you couldn’t help but feel disappointed in the final result of Gates season. 13 games played (although 1 where he put up no stats as he was clearly hobbled), 64/778/7. But even if you include that game, that prorates to 79/958/9. Fact is, Gates despite really having to deal with a painful plantar fasciitis issue all year, was still pretty good.

But compared to the new breed of prolific TE that emerged in 2011 in the form of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, Gates’ production almost seemed quaint by comparison. And in reality, despite Gates deceivingly solid numbers, he was really never prolific at any point in 2011. But he still was the central cog in the SD passing game and with the departure of Vincent Jackson, figures to be once again so long as he can maintain his health which now is a solid ‘if’.

When people drafted Gates in 2011 though, the thought was that Gronkowski/Graham numbers were in fact possible for him. After all, in 10 games, Gates put up 50/782/10. He was a difference maker. Could this level of per game production be in his future? I would say that his topline production probably will never approach that level. He’s always been a physical match-up nightmare for defenses in years past, but he really got most of his production though pure veteran guile. His YAC production declined sharply:

2009: 44.3% of yardage production, 6.5 YAC/reception

2010: 42.3% of yardage production, 6.6 YAC/reception

2011: 34.4% of yardage production, 4.2 YAC/Reception

…which really accounted for his per game yardage total decrease. Beside Peyton Manning, Gates could make a solid claim that was hurt as much as anyone by the lockout from a health standpoint. Not being able to rehab with Chargers doctors pretty much prevented Gates from preparing properly for the season. But the fact is that at 32, so long as Gates keeps himself in shape…he’s going to be among the leagues elite TE’s again this year with probably a better showing, or a showing more similar to the pre-2011 Gates than last years version. But not a complete return to form.

Prediction: 77 Receptions, 975 Receiving Yards, 10 TD’s.

 
With Vincent Jackson gone to TB, Gates becomes the undisputed #1 option in SD. That said, can Meacham and Floyd prevent teams from double teaming Gates? Will SD go more towards a run-first offense centered around Mathews? Can Gates stay healthy for 16 games? A lot of risk involved, but the rewards can be great, since he can post numbers in the neighborhood of Gronkowski/Graham, but you can get Gates 2 rounds later.

75 rec, 1025 yds, 9 TD

 
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Watching Antonio Gates run at Chargers practice. Looks like himself, fast again. Great sign #NFLTrainingCamp http://twitpic.com/ad7h0j

UTKevinAcee ‏@UTKevinAcee

Best news of camp for Chargers is that Antonio Gates looks like he's in early 2010 kind of shape. Not missing those 5 lbs. he lost.

http://forums.utsandiego.com/showthread.php?t=119450&page=9

Gates was impressive today...

"covering" is being gracious... chasing is closer to reality today anyway... I had forgetten just how good Gates is.... its been awhile... but lordy, fountain of youth out there today and Rivers put him onto a couple long TD's....
admittedly this was against rookie safety Brandon Taylor . . .
 
have owned Gates for yrs and its time to get what u can, between the injury that can flare up any moment and the fact that he just doesn't look the same anymore I have lower expections. He'll be a defenses number 1 focus in the passing game.

65 recs, 850, 6 TDs

 
I was the unlucky soul to get Gates in my dynasty startup this year, but I pulled the trigger for a reason. He dropped to the 11th round. Was it rookie fever? (Fleener was taken higher, as were RB like Pead/Hillman). Or was it the injury history. I happen to think its both.

Gates value in redraft is secure, but if you take him I would make sure I took a competent backup like Gresham or Olsen. Dynasty his value is way down and right now is the worst time of year to try and move him. Wait until he plays a couple of games at a high level and try to trade him, but personally I'll ride him til he retires probably as I may never get an offer I like.

75 rec/110 targets. 950 yards 10 TD

 
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Watching Antonio Gates run at Chargers practice. Looks like himself, fast again. Great sign #NFLTrainingCamp http://twitpic.com/ad7h0j

UTKevinAcee ‏@UTKevinAcee

Best news of camp for Chargers is that Antonio Gates looks like he's in early 2010 kind of shape. Not missing those 5 lbs. he lost.

http://forums.utsandiego.com/showthread.php?t=119450&page=9

Gates was impressive today...

"covering" is being gracious... chasing is closer to reality today anyway... I had forgetten just how good Gates is.... its been awhile... but lordy, fountain of youth out there today and Rivers put him onto a couple long TD's....
admittedly this was against rookie safety Brandon Taylor . . .
Thanks for posting this. :thumbup: Some people aren't paying attention.

 
Chargers S Eric Weddle said that Antonio Gates "hasn't looked this good since my rookie season."Weddle has been matching up with Gates in practice since 2007. "He's going to be the best tight end in the NFL this year," Weddle said Thursday. "The best. You can't guard him ... I know there are a lot good tight ends coming up in the league, but Antonio is the best. He looks that good." By virtually all accounts, Gates is at 100 percent right now.
After visiting Chargers camp, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport stated that he believes Antonio Gates is primed for a "big, big season.""The best thing is, he can actually run," Rapoport said. "... He is in shape. He looks skinny. He was burning cornerbacks left and right in practice. ... He is feeling healthier now than he's been in a couple of years. He is really looking like he's primed for a big, big season."
 
This is the first time I have ever drafted Gates. I thought with VJax leaving and with Gates looking healthy, he would have a nice year. So far he has cost me both losses. Hopefully he heals up and bounces back and finishes the year strong.

 
Read a tweet, probably from Kevin Acee, that the Bolts gave him until Sunday morning and they wouldn't have with any other player on the roster except for Rivers.

 
Who else had fun watching his backup catch 3 TDs? (not rubbing salt in the wound, I'm an owner, too)
:hey: Was completely screwed over by the preliminary reports that he was going to be good to go. Guess I need to have a backup TE from one of the west coast teams so I could do a late game swap.
 
'Pipes said:
'FF Ninja said:
Who else had fun watching his backup catch 3 TDs? (not rubbing salt in the wound, I'm an owner, too)
:hey: Was completely screwed over by the preliminary reports that he was going to be good to go. Guess I need to have a backup TE from one of the west coast teams so I could do a late game swap.
I had to do a couple of double takes then pull up my lineup on my phone. To my shock and horror, I saw a big "O" next to his name. Out of nowhere. I must have had I-don't-know-how-many reports that he was playing.
 
How often does a player sit out due to bruised ribs? I thought he was almost a lock to start. Witten has seemingly played through internal bleeding AND if memory serves me correctly a very similar injury last year (memory may not be serving me correctly). Should we start questioning his toughness or the severity of the injury? Maybe both?

 
How often does a player sit out due to bruised ribs?
I remember it happening before (and you see it a lot in the NBA). I certainly wouldn't say it's a sure sign that they injury is being underplayed. Could be the team hoped he'd be good enough to play (since he does have a history of being effective despite injury), but on Sunday they found he couldn't reach over his head with power, push his man in a blocking situation, defend himself properly, etc..
 
The Chargers treat Gates with gloves.

They probably thought it was better to hold him out rather than risking an aggravation.

I'm not suggesting that is the right thing to do, but that is how the Chargers roll.

I'd start Gates only if I saw him practice on Thursdays AND Fridays or else you risk him sitting on game day (late start games) OR Gates receiving limited snaps (especially since the backup TEs didn't do too shabby).

 
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i thought i learned my lesson with this piece of crap gates. i had him last year and vowed never to draft him again. But low & behold what do i do, i do it again and 2 weeks in dealing with the same BS!!! Now everyone that owns him if you havent before, get ready bcause EVERY damn week its going to be he is qestionale no probably, he should play, he might play, he is sore, he strained his ######. Unbelievable that i did this to myself AGAIN!

 
Ye gods, I hate Gates. 2 weeks in a row he's single-handedly murdered my team. It's now not only the injuries that kill you it's the crap production when he does play.

I'm going to be starting the Black Unicorn over him from here on out. The upsides lower, no doubt, but I can't keep losing games by 2 pts. Sure Gates might give me 20+, but he might also give me 2, and I need more consistency out of my TE.

 
Chargers S Eric Weddle said that Antonio Gates "hasn't looked this good since my rookie season."Weddle has been matching up with Gates in practice since 2007. "He's going to be the best tight end in the NFL this year," Weddle said Thursday. "The best. You can't guard him ... I know there are a lot good tight ends coming up in the league, but Antonio is the best. He looks that good." By virtually all accounts, Gates is at 100 percent right now.
After visiting Chargers camp, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport stated that he believes Antonio Gates is primed for a "big, big season.""The best thing is, he can actually run," Rapoport said. "... He is in shape. He looks skinny. He was burning cornerbacks left and right in practice. ... He is feeling healthier now than he's been in a couple of years. He is really looking like he's primed for a big, big season."
:shrug:
 
Is this guy done?

Maybe I'm biased in an unusual way...I've NEVER owned him in any league and he ALWAYS seems to torch me but its almost like he's MORTAL now. What happened to this guy?

 
Ye gods, I hate Gates. 2 weeks in a row he's single-handedly murdered my team. It's now not only the injuries that kill you it's the crap production when he does play.I'm going to be starting the Black Unicorn over him from here on out. The upsides lower, no doubt, but I can't keep losing games by 2 pts. Sure Gates might give me 20+, but he might also give me 2, and I need more consistency out of my TE.
I can't believe I'm saying this but I think Bennett has a higher floor and ceiling than gates going forward. I think the fact that SD has no serious receiving threats hurts Gates value a lot.
 
Chargers S Eric Weddle said that Antonio Gates "hasn't looked this good since my rookie season."Weddle has been matching up with Gates in practice since 2007. "He's going to be the best tight end in the NFL this year," Weddle said Thursday. "The best. You can't guard him ... I know there are a lot good tight ends coming up in the league, but Antonio is the best. He looks that good." By virtually all accounts, Gates is at 100 percent right now.
After visiting Chargers camp, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport stated that he believes Antonio Gates is primed for a "big, big season.""The best thing is, he can actually run," Rapoport said. "... He is in shape. He looks skinny. He was burning cornerbacks left and right in practice. ... He is feeling healthier now than he's been in a couple of years. He is really looking like he's primed for a big, big season."
:shrug:
I'm keeping hope alive. At least one more week before he gets benched in all my leagues for the likes of Bennett, Olsen, and Heath Miller.
 
Ye gods, I hate Gates. 2 weeks in a row he's single-handedly murdered my team. It's now not only the injuries that kill you it's the crap production when he does play.I'm going to be starting the Black Unicorn over him from here on out. The upsides lower, no doubt, but I can't keep losing games by 2 pts. Sure Gates might give me 20+, but he might also give me 2, and I need more consistency out of my TE.
:goodposting: He has almost single-handedly torpedoed one of my teams early on.
 
Yes he is done, he is old and the team sucks. I sat him for pitta this week and thankfully i did as now i at least have a shot at winning this week. He will start no longer!

 
Ye gods, I hate Gates. 2 weeks in a row he's single-handedly murdered my team. It's now not only the injuries that kill you it's the crap production when he does play.I'm going to be starting the Black Unicorn over him from here on out. The upsides lower, no doubt, but I can't keep losing games by 2 pts. Sure Gates might give me 20+, but he might also give me 2, and I need more consistency out of my TE.
Yah I'm normally too stubborn to let others influence my draft strategy but I somehow let the espn guys talk me out of Vernon Davis & into Gates. FML - gonna be 1-2 instead of 3-0 because of it.
 

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