Draft BOTH Gronk and Graham at the 1-2 turn? Here is my reasoning. Based on current FBG projections there's a decent drop off after te3, so you outscore every other team at the TE position by several points per game. Assuming you can start a TE as a flex, both Gronk and Graham still rate the same points per game as a WR1. Think of it as going WR & TE at the turn, but the WR is de facto your flex.
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If youre drafting at the turn of a snake draft would it make sense to. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Tchula
- Start date
i kinda like this...
but it might change a little depending on how many you have to start at other positions...
but it might change a little depending on how many you have to start at other positions...
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
If you can start em both, I think comparing them to WRs that are available is very appropriate.
And they hold up marvelously.
Dodds Projections...
And they hold up marvelously.
Dodds Projections...
Code:
1 Rob Gronkowski NE / 9 15 78 1053 13.5 12 177.92 Jimmy Graham NO / 6 15 89 1095 12.3 11 175.53 Aaron Hernandez NE / 9 15 73 818 11.2 7 141.14 Jerm Finley GB / 10 16 60 828 13.8 8 130.85 Antonio Gates SD / 7 14 65 878 13.5 7 129.86 Jason Witten DAL / 5 15 79 893 11.3 6 125.37 Vernon Davis SF / 9 16 70 827 11.8 6 119.9
Code:
1 Calvin Johnson DET / 5 16 2 12 6.0 0 90 1485 16.5 13 227.72 Greg Jennings GB / 10 13 0 0 0 78 1186 15.2 11 184.63 Andre Johnson HOU / 8 15 1 8 8.0 0 90 1342 14.9 8 183.04 Victor Cruz NYG / 11 16 2 12 6.0 0 78 1248 16.0 9 180.05 Mike Wallace PIT / 4 15 5 40 8.0 0 76 1254 16.5 8 177.46 L Fitzgerald ARI / 10 16 0 0 0 85 1207 14.2 9 174.77 Hakeem Nicks NYG / 11 15 1 5 5.0 0 81 1256 15.5 8 174.18 Julio Jones ATL / 7 16 7 56 8.0 0 72 1123 15.6 9 171.99 Dez Bryant DAL / 5 15 2 10 5.0 0 75 1103 14.7 10 171.310 Jordy Nelson GB / 10 16 0 0 0 70 1106 15.8 10 170.611 Demaryius Thomas DEN / 7 16 2 9 4.5 0 74 1154 15.6 9 170.312 Miles Austin DAL / 5 15 2 8 4.0 0 76 1125 14.8 9 167.313 Percy Harvin MIN / 11 15 36 234 6.5 2 78 936 12.0 6 165.014 Roddy White ATL / 7 15 1 5 5.0 0 88 1135 12.9 8 162.015 A.J. Green CIN / 8 16 5 35 7.0 0 73 1095 15.0 8 161.016 Kenny Britt TEN / 11 14 0 0 0 71 1172 16.5 7 159.217 Steve Smith CAR / 6 15 5 30 6.0 0 75 1140 15.2 7 159.018 Marques Colston NO / 6 15 0 0 0 79 1043 13.2 9 158.319 Vincent Jackson TB / 5 15 3 21 7.0 0 65 1073 16.5 8 157.420 Torrey Smith BAL / 8 16 4 24 6.0 0 62 992 16.0 8 149.621 Denarius Moore OAK / 5 15 8 64 8.0 1 63 1008 16.0 6 149.222 DeSean Jackson PHI / 7 15 7 49 7.0 1 63 1021 16.2 6 149.023 Steve Johnson BUF / 8 16 0 0 0 79 1027 13.0 7 144.724 Wes Welker NE / 9 15 4 28 7.0 0 94 1043 11.1 6 143.1
Synesthesia
Footballguy
Obviously depends on the starting requirements. If you can only start 1 TE, it's an obviously terrible idea. If you have multiple WR/TE flex spots, it's a viable strategy (especially if you have at least one mandatory TE spot). If you have something like 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE flex, then I think it's another non-starter of a strategy. Filling in flex spots when there are still unfilled starting positions dramatically reduces your roster flexibility, and should only be done if the flex player presents substantially more value than the mandatory player. And Gronk/Graham just don't present a compelling enough case over a guy like Fitzgerald to warrant the sacrifice of your flex spot in the second round.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Wanted to add a bit more.Its perfect for the WR/TE slot. Especially if its PPR.You don't "gain" anything from putting a clamp on your opponents not getting one though. You did gain 40+ points with your first one, and then broke even with your second (vs a Jennings, Wallace, Fitz, Nicks).However, if the flex allows for RBs, or since you still need a QB... then you may be taking a hit. Case in point...
Code:
6 Darren McFadden OAK / 5 13 240 1248 5.2 8 36 324 9.0 2 217.27 Trent RichardsonCLE / 10 16 275 1183 4.3 8 45 358 8.0 2 214.18 Marshawn Lynch SEA / 11 15 255 1071 4.2 11 29 232 8.0 1 202.39 Chris Johnson TEN / 11 15 260 1066 4.1 7 52 381 7.3 2 198.710 Jamaal Charles KC / 7 15 215 1226 5.7 5 39 312 8.0 2 195.8
Code:
1 Aaron Rodgers GB / 10 15 348 535 4590 8.6 40 11 60 282 4.7 3 453.72 Tom Brady NE / 9 16 393 577 4639 8.0 38 12 35 53 1.5 1 409.23 Drew Brees NO / 6 16 428 616 4737 7.7 38 16 20 30 1.5 1 403.94 Cam Newton CAR / 6 16 299 480 3595 7.5 22 15 115 633 5.5 7 365.15 Matt Stafford DET / 5 16 360 600 4398 7.3 34 19 23 74 3.2 0 359.36 Tony Romo DAL / 5 16 349 530 4187 7.9 30 14 25 63 2.5 1 343.67 Michael Vick PHI / 7 13 284 465 3706 8.0 21 16 75 525 7.0 5 340.88 Philip Rivers SD / 7 16 365 582 4580 7.9 26 15 28 42 1.5 1 339.29 Eli Manning NYG / 11 16 337 540 4163 7.7 27 18 32 64 2.0 1 319.610 Ben Roethbrgr PIT / 4 15 320 510 4080 8.0 25 15 40 90 2.3 1 314.011 Matt Ryan ATL / 7 16 329 551 3857 7.0 26 13 43 86 2.0 1 311.412 Robert Griffin WAS / 10 16 315 525 3596 6.8 20 17 65 410 6.3 4 310.8
Sake-Bombers
Footballguy
This certainly could make sense... if everyone performs the same way they did last year. But that's obviously not guaranteed.
But if you think they'll duplicate or improve on last year and you think you can maximize later picks, it's an intriguing strategy. Seems like QB and WR are deep this year, so RB could be where you lose any edge, though, especially because you could get a better RB1 with one of those picks and still get a WR at flex who isn't as big of a dropoff from Graham as a later RB would be over that RB1.
But if you think they'll duplicate or improve on last year and you think you can maximize later picks, it's an intriguing strategy. Seems like QB and WR are deep this year, so RB could be where you lose any edge, though, especially because you could get a better RB1 with one of those picks and still get a WR at flex who isn't as big of a dropoff from Graham as a later RB would be over that RB1.
twistd
Footballguy
With a format like the FFPC, where the TEs get 1.5 a catch it would be a viable strategy. That would almost force you to go really late on QB. I'd think that you would almost have to take RBs at the 3/4 turn. According to the FBG ADP you would have Bradshaw, Gore, Fred Jackson, and Doug Martin available. At the 5/6 turn you would have BJGE, Greene, Stewart, Redman, and Spiller. But at WR you would have Desean Jackson, Antonio Brown, Brandon Lloyd, and Eric Decker available at the 5/6 turn. Over all this strategy is intriguing, but very risky. If there was a run on RBs before the 3/4 turn you could be in trouble.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I disagree. You aren't force into any strategy. If value presents itself , like Rodgers available in round 3, you take him. I know of teams that have pursued a similar strategy in the FFPC and won their in leagues.
twistd
Footballguy
I think that the RB value really falls off the table after that group available at the 3/4 turn. Besides, Rodgers is not dropping to the end of the third round. His ADP is 6, he's not dropping to 36 to be available at the 3/4 turn. Even if it is a ten team league he isn't dropping to 30 either. The QBs that are available, according to the FBG ADP, in the third are Stafford, who they have going early third, and Vick. I suppose I would consider Stafford at that spot, but would almost feel I had to take RBs. I think you could get a solid QBBC pair later in the draft. I wouldn't be very excited if my number 2 RB was BJGE.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
You can't use the ridiculous ADPs that FBG posts (not their fault for posting but they aren't based on real $ leagues) when talking about high stakes FF leagues especially the FFPC. Maybe Rodger would be taken in the first round but just as likely not and no other quarterbacks would be off the board until mid-late second round
twistd
Footballguy
We aren't talking about Rodgers dropping to the second, we are talking about Rodgers dropping to the end of the third. For him to be available at the 3/4 turn he has to drop to 36. Do you really think that is going to happen? Calvin Johnson might drop to the end of the third too, but that also is so unlikely that it doesn't bear consideration IMO. Someone like Brady, Cam Newton, or Stafford might drop, maybe even Brees, but Rodgers is never going to drop that far unless your scoring system really devalues QBs.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Rodgers is simply used as an example. My point was to take value and not get locked into drafting by position early in a draft.
There is, and always will be, starting RBs after round 4. If you are dominant at the other positions it will more than make up for a weakness at RB.
There is, and always will be, starting RBs after round 4. If you are dominant at the other positions it will more than make up for a weakness at RB.
twistd
Footballguy
I believe that the pool of talent is deeper at QB, WR, and TE, than it is at RB this season. That is my perception. Last season I felt that there was a big drop off at WR and there was more depth at RB. I think it is much easier to find value at QB, WR, or TE after round 4 than it is at RB. So unless some extraordinary value appears at some position, like Rodgers dropping to the third round, I would probably want two RBs by the end of 4 rounds. And if you were to take two TEs in rounds 1 and 2, to me, it means you have to wait on something in rounds 3 and 4. I'd be more comfortable waiting on QB or WR, or both, than I would waiting at RB. And I don't feel that the QBs that are likely to be available at the 3/4 turn are going to justify the weakness I feel I would be likely to have at RB if I chose a QB at the 3/4 turn. That is my opinion.
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Badgers Fan
Footballguy
Personally, I like diversity drafting early on. You aren't pidgeon-holed into forcing yourself to draft rb after rb round 4-6 to try to make up for your deficiency there by drafting. By doing that, you can bypass a steal or two (i.e a projected late 2nd round pick sliding to your 3rd rounder).
Dez
Footballguy
I just tried this startegy in a mock draft it did not turn out well the RB's were picked clean by pick 3.12 and 4.01.You end up faced with overpaying for avg RB's in the 3rd/4th rounds. Bradshaw, Gore, Fred Jackson and Martin were all gone before my 3rd round pick. BJGE, Greene, Stewart, Redman, Best and Spiller were all gone before my 5th round pick.So I was either starting at one of those guys (BJGE, Greene, Stewart, Redman, Best and Spiller) in the 3rd or 4th round or scrubs in the 5th/6th.If the other 11 teams decide they each want 2-3 RB's in the 1st 3 rounds you are in serious trouble.
Dez
Footballguy
In the FFPC I am confident those RBs will fall to you though in the rounds you said above because more TE's will go.In the FFPC though you would be lucky if either one made it to 1.12
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Id absolutely take Gronk with one of the picks, but Id use the other on a QB if a Top 4 guy falls, or a RB.
This!!!!!!!!! No other points are valid. Listen to this guy.
Crazy Tony
Footballguy
I think if there were two TE's to do this strategy with, it's GRONK/GRAHAM.
Again, it's a strategy. There's thought going into. If you can start 2 TEs it makes sense. They also warrant excellent trade value if you change your mind.
Hopefully you're picking in rounds 3-4 or something. But I would say there are more options at high level QB than there are at TE. WR/RB gets more complicated...you have studs/workhorses/RBBC or great players on bad teams, WRs w/ bad QBs. WR2s on great passing teams.
Based on the value that you're not drafting...how does it pencil out for you?
Run a couple MOCK drafts.
Again, it's a strategy. There's thought going into. If you can start 2 TEs it makes sense. They also warrant excellent trade value if you change your mind.
Hopefully you're picking in rounds 3-4 or something. But I would say there are more options at high level QB than there are at TE. WR/RB gets more complicated...you have studs/workhorses/RBBC or great players on bad teams, WRs w/ bad QBs. WR2s on great passing teams.
Based on the value that you're not drafting...how does it pencil out for you?
Run a couple MOCK drafts.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
..it seems like a good idea, but I think you're getting too cute with the draft...you're putting all of your eggs in the TE basket..first off, is Gronk healthy, and can he remain healthy all season long?
secondly, with Graham, how will the loss of Payton affect the play calling?
next issue is this: last year was a record year for TE's..looking at all of the recent records that have been set ( Brady's TDs, Mannings TD's, Brees' passing yardage, Tomlinson's 2k season, CJs 2k season, etc), the player setting that record didn't come close to repeating that feat the following season..so going by that 'law' that we hear about , the regression to the mean, I think Gronk's numbers are in for a big, signifant dropoff, I've posted in another thread that I think Gronk will probably catch about 70 balls this season;DC's have had time to focus on him, McDaniels offenses don't typically use a lot of TE action, and the ankle issue is still out there..for a big heavy guy like that to have ankle issues , that worries me..
Gronk has a lot of questions surrounding him..I'd rather let someone else bite on the hype and draft him..
Graham is a safer pick because the only thing you have to worry about is play calling..
he's healthy, he's dominant...
I still think a guy like Witten is a diamond in the rough, because while everyone is drafting last year's stars like Gronk and Hernandez and Graham, Witten's value remains the same as always,yet his draft position is falling, meaning he represents solid gold value at his avg draft position ( 5th, 6th round?)
look at it like this, is Ryan Mathews , one of 4-5 RB's who are not RBBC, more valuable to your team than taking two TE's? with the lack of true 300+ carry RBs, the value of Foster, Mathews, etc is skyrocketing..QB's can be had later on ( big Ben?) WR's are dime a dozen and you can play the waiver wire for them) ..so why not go for a bell-cow RB and Graham?
First of all, the original poster said "you" were drafting at the end of Rd1 in a snake draft. I'm assuming that means 1:10, 1:11, or 1:12 and then coming around to 2:01, 2:02, or 2:03. In every PPR Mock, 12 teams, that I've looked at: Rice, Foster, McCoy, Johnson/WR, Mathews, MJD, and Rodgers, in no particular order, are off the board. That's 7 players with 2 more to go (probably Johnson/RB, for 1) until your turn at 1:10. So, if your question is would I take Gronk and Graham over McFadden (VERY injury prone), Fitz (Skelton the QB), or any of the other RBs still available (Lynch, Peterson, Charles, etc.). Then my answer would very readily be, "He!!, yea".
footballnerd
Footballguy
only if you can start 2, don't draft to trade one of them, you might as well draft what you were gonna trade for
Manster
Footballguy
This is intriguing if your leagues' scoring is 1.5 ppr for TE and you have a flex that allows a second TE. I just so happen to be in a 10 teamer with this scoring.
So I went onto FF calculator and did a mock from the the 10 spot in a 10 team mock. I only went thru 12 rounds as my daddy duties were callin. anyway here it is.
1. Graham
2. Gronk
3. Turner
4. Julio
5. McGahee
6. Romo
7. Gerhart
8. Hillis
9. Little
10. RG3
11. Santonio
12. Sid Rice
meh, prolly shoulda passed on Romo and grabbed another WR. Cant remember who was available. Couldnt pass on Turner/Julio even though on same team. Might play around with this some more......
So I went onto FF calculator and did a mock from the the 10 spot in a 10 team mock. I only went thru 12 rounds as my daddy duties were callin. anyway here it is.
1. Graham
2. Gronk
3. Turner
4. Julio
5. McGahee
6. Romo
7. Gerhart
8. Hillis
9. Little
10. RG3
11. Santonio
12. Sid Rice
meh, prolly shoulda passed on Romo and grabbed another WR. Cant remember who was available. Couldnt pass on Turner/Julio even though on same team. Might play around with this some more......
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Caesar
Footballguy
In a double flex with the 1.5 ppr for TE, you would be pretty happy to have these two at the turn. As was stated earlier, neither one of them is even lasting until the 12 pick.
I have seen 1 WR, 2TE, 5-6RB and 2-3QB off the board in the first round when the 12 spot comes around. If those two are sitting there in that format, though, I would snatch them up and ride the to the :championship:
Even in a 1PPR league, I think you have to consider this as a viable strategy in double flex leagues. WRs always emerge throughout the season, and I think you can make up for lack of RB power with those two picks.
I don't like this strategy in a single flex league because it pretty much locks in your flex player for all but two week. I like my "flex" to be a little more "flexible" Others may like being more consistent at the flex, but I think that just means you are going to be flailing at other positions week to week.
I have seen 1 WR, 2TE, 5-6RB and 2-3QB off the board in the first round when the 12 spot comes around. If those two are sitting there in that format, though, I would snatch them up and ride the to the :championship:
Even in a 1PPR league, I think you have to consider this as a viable strategy in double flex leagues. WRs always emerge throughout the season, and I think you can make up for lack of RB power with those two picks.
I don't like this strategy in a single flex league because it pretty much locks in your flex player for all but two week. I like my "flex" to be a little more "flexible" Others may like being more consistent at the flex, but I think that just means you are going to be flailing at other positions week to week.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
This is an excellent point.
Manster
Footballguy
That is a solid point. But, these guys have Brees and Brady throwin to em the ball. And they throw the ball a ton! And these guys are matchup nightmares.
They may not repeat last seasons numbers, but it feels like they will, or at least come close. Barring injury, these guys are both elite FF starters every week.
There is potential trouble with this strategy for sure. It could definately leave you thin at WR/RB. Might need some diamonds in the ruf to make it work.
They may not repeat last seasons numbers, but it feels like they will, or at least come close. Barring injury, these guys are both elite FF starters every week.
There is potential trouble with this strategy for sure. It could definately leave you thin at WR/RB. Might need some diamonds in the ruf to make it work.
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rizzler
Footballguy
Went Graham and Gronk at 1.12/2.01 in one of the new MFL 10 Pay Leagues.
You can follow here: Draft in Progress
I'm team 12 (rizzler)
You can follow here: Draft in Progress
I'm team 12 (rizzler)
rizzler
Footballguy
ya... no idea why, but it's his $
Caesar
Footballguy
I agree that they are going to be point producers. I can easily see getting into a situation where you take Graham/Gronk at the 1-2 turn, and then when the 3-4 turn comes around, you grab a couple of WR (RB) because they present the best value on the board. Now, you get back around to the 5-6 turn and the league you are in went crazy on the RB (WR) postition. (the one you didn't draft at the 3-4) Now, you have incredible value at WR (RB), but if you take that player in a single flex league, you are drafting a backup in the 5th or 6th round. Example... based on FBG ADP1.12 Graham2.01 Gronkowski3.12 Bradshaw4.01 Lynch5.12 ... if a run happened on WR, you may be looking at a choice between Torrey Smith or Robert Meacham as your #1 receiver, which already isn't good, but if you look on the board and see Doug Martin still sitting there, how do you pass on him here? 6.01 Meacham7.12 Denarius Moore8.01 Roethlisberger?? Griffin?? Now, you are drafting a backup/depth at the 5-6 turn before your starters are filled. I always try to avoid this unless I see incredible value for an individual. Point being, if I have set myself up early in a draft to allow for the flexibility of taking that incredible value, then it isn't an issue. Yes, you can lock yourself into WR/RB at the 3-4 turn to make sure this doesn't happen, but the whole point is that by taking your only FLEX with your second round pick, you are severely limiting your flexibility in the rest of the draft. You don't know what others are going to do. At least in a double flex, you still have that extra flex available in case great value falls to you. I was in a draft where someone went RB for the first FIVE rounds. I just don't understand drafting backups before starters. Regardless of what you think of the players I used as examples, I think you can see that starting your WR corps with Smith/Meacham will not look good, but starting it with only one of them and then having .... say Denarius Moore as your #2... you are really hurting at WR. While I think that you can cover some of this up with savvy waiver wire-ing... I prefer to be looking for depth and backups on the WW as opposed to every week starters. I didn't even mention the potentially sub-par QB situation you have left yourself with... So, all in all, you may feel like you are getting a great deal taking them the top two TEs at the 1-2 turn, but I think you hurt yourself virtually EVERYWHERE else.'Manster said:
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