Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Mike Wallace Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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Mike Wallace scares me.

Hold out aside, there is a definite argument that Wallace is a 1B option at best in Pittsburgh. Though Wallace had more yards, more TD's and a better catch %, Brown still saw more targets last year.

While Pitt is generally in the top half of the league in passing yards (10-14-9-17 past four years), the prolific numbers of the top-5 teams probably won't occur. So, for Wallace to break into the top-5 of WRs, he needs to be the definitive #1 option for the Steelers. With Brown and Sanders, I don't believe Wallace can break the 120 target barrier. Even with a slight increase in catch percentage to 65% (up from 63%), Wallace maxes out at 78 catches. Wallace also saw a fairly significant reduction in YPC last year. I think a 17 YPC is a safe prediction.

So, best-case scenario is 120 targets, 78 catches, 1326 yards, 12 TDs

Worst-case scenario is 100 targets, 55 catches, 825 yards, 6 TDs

The prediction I will most heavily weight when figuring out projections is:

110 targets, 66 catches, 1089 yards (16.5 YPC), 9 TDs

ETA: Wallace also should be a safe bet for 50 rushing yards during the year as well, so that's a few more points in his favor.

This is going to be one of those player threads where people have vastly different opinions.

File me in the "stud" camp. I think people that try and put him in a "one trick pony" box are coming from a place of ignorance. They see a player who is possibly the fastest person in pads, and they immediately associate that with a guy that is a fly pattern specialist only. He was utilized in this manner a lot, but it's also because of his amazing speed. Consider this, in the White vs Wallace thread it got me thinking about some similarities between the two. Both are listed at 6-0ft and White has 12 pounds on Wallace. Wallace ended his third season only 1.72PPG behind White in PPR. They are not the same players, in fact I feel that Wallace has more raw physical ability than White.

Some big questions do exist. One would be his average stats in the second half of last season. My view is that a lot of that had to do with the big ben injuries and multiple o-line problems. Then you have the emergence of Brown. You don't pass on a Greg Jennings or Nicks because of the presence of Nelson and Cruz, so why would you pass on Wallace for the same reasons? Personally, talent always takes precedence over situation, and I feel like Wallace has talent in spades. I think that he doesn't take his talent for granted and he's often been praised as one of the hardest workers on the team. He would sleep at the facility if he could. If I remember correctly he's one of those guys that showed up at the facility when the injunction against the lockout happened. My biggest concern is an extended holdout. We've seen this song, and dance before with clients of Rosenhaus. The holdouts are usually long and they seem to hurt the player that season significantly, especially when Wallace has a new and very different offense to learn. Then you get into questions about possible injuries because of the lack of conditioning. If it lasts into the regular season or even into training camp, I would dial back my projections a bit. The promise of the Steelers to not reduce his tender makes me optimistic they are nearing a deal. I could be a bit too cavalier about a significant list of negatives, but I think they will create enough doubt to make him a player to target because others worried.

80 receptions for 1250 yards and 10 TDs. 5 rushes for 60 yards and 1td.

'griff321 said:

You don't pass on a Greg Jennings or Nicks because of the presence of Nelson and Cruz, so why would you pass on Wallace for the same reasons?

Click to expand...

Because Nicks & Jennings are better overall WR than Jordy Nelson & Cruz while I'm not so sure you can say the same thing about Wallace->Brown

Right out of the bat, let me say this about Mike Wallace. Right now, he is the most feared deep threat in the game. Is he the best…perhaps, but over the past two seasons, no one has been more effective or productive at catching the long ball than Wallace. In the last two seasons, on passes thrown more than 30 yards, Wallace has produced:

19 Receptions

907 Receiving Yards

11 TD’s

Keep in mind, these aren’t balls that Wallace took to the house on a slant. These are bombs. The problem is that outside of these type of throws, his production in two seasons on passes shorter than 30 yards is:

113 Receptions

1543 Receiving Yards

7 TD’s

Teams started to essentially take away the deep ball from the Steelers last season. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the emergence of Antonio Brown as a bonafide all-around WR stud came as teams game planned around taking the deep ball away from Wallace. In Wallace’s last 9 games, he had but 2 receptions longer than 30 yards. During this same time, Brown went for 44/744/2 or what would amount to a 16 game average of 78/1322/4.

The thing that concerns me about Wallace for 2012 is Brown’s TD production. Despite being incredibly productive, he was less than ordinary when converting his production into points. In short, teams were justified in taking away Wallace from the Steelers so long as they funneled the ball to Brown or someone else. Between the 20’s, Brown was dynamic. Red zone though…? Not so much and as such, during this time – the Steelers only averaged 18.6 PPG. This after averaging 23.2 PPG the previous 19 games with Big Ben at QB.

Now I get that BB was compromised by injury and an O-Line that simply by the seasons second half was struggling to allow BB to get the deep ball off. But I think that if I’m playing PIT, I’m making Antonio Brown and other roll-up a bunch of points on me, before I adjust my defense that gives Wallace openings to beat me deep again.

Wallace isn’t falling off the face of the earth by any means. But I was more bullish on his prospects last off-season than this one (aside from his contract dispute) and I think his ceiling based on his situation no longer is in the 1400-1500 /10 range. That said, if Antonio Brown continues to develop and convert on scoring opportunities, I do think Wallace becomes a nice buy low candidate in October.

Prediction: 65 Receptions, 1085 Receiving Yards, 5 TD’s; 4 Rushes 48 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

Pittsburgh investing in the OL heavily in the draft will pay dividends for Wallace. Maybe not in 2012, but if those guys pan out, that will be a boon to Wallace's fantasy value.

Big time receiver with blazing speed and average hands, but still a very dangerous weapon for Pittsburgh. Most will look at the stats and the megabuck contract holdout and assume that Wallace is elite and therefore the #1 wideout. But Antonio Brown is the best overall receiver on the Steelers and I look for him to eat into Wallace’s numbers across the board. The O-line got an influx of talent, and the Steelers will be more of a ball control offense than before. Wallace will still be a deep threat, but used less as Brown blossoms and the Steelers pound the rock more. I think Wallace will underperform and I will likely pass on him at his ADP.

Projection:

60/1000/7

75, 1,300, 9 = 259 PPR, 16.2 PPR PPG

Any news? His ADP has been falling.

Rumors that he is reporting today, but no news. Oddly quiet.

That was my thinking.

Bumping this to get some thoughts on how he's looking so far. I haven't gotten to watch the Steelers much yet. Even though he missed all camp, Wallace has a TD in each game so far (one on a red zone look, another on a typical Ben-scramble-jump-ball-to-Wallace. The Steelers appear to be passing quite a bit. He's obviously very talented and started on fire last year, then cooled the second half of the season. Seems to have picked up well to start 2012.

Is he a WR2 with WR1 upside?