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Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Julio Jones Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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I think Julio has the best chance of any player in football/fantasy football to make the huge leap from great player/talent....to truly elite player (this year)

I see 80/1300/11 and a wr that will be ranked as a top 5 wr for many years to come.

 
I think after this season, there will be people selecting him BEFORE AJ Green in redraft and dynasty formats. :thumbup:

 
I think he's still (technically) the WR2 behind White in Atlanta, although I think he will catch a few more TDs this year. Another year or two, he'll garner a larger share of the targets and, by extension, a larger share of the receiving yards. For this year:

70 receptions, 1100 yards, 10 TDs.

 
Do you realize that if Julio Jones plays all 16 games (he played 13) in 2011, his projected/prorated totals would look like this?

66 Receptions

1180 Receiving Yards

10 TD’s

This is despite the fact that he missed the equivalent of 3 quarters due to injuries in other games and one other game before he was completely healthy where he was shut out. The ceiling for Julio is consistent Top 5 WR which I think he could be in 2012 and quite frankly, I would take him over Andre Johnson or Roddy White.

Julio was seen as a guy that could stretch the field. But in reality, from what I saw in 2011 – he can do it all. He can go deep. He can make spectacular catches. He can go across the middle. He can get YAC. He can be a high target guy. In baseball, you would call Julio a 5-tool player. I don’t think there is a limit to his abilities. And with a full off-season to continue to continue to acclimate himself with the NFL game and the Falcons playbook, I think he’ll take over as the Falcons WR1 this season.

Tall order you say? How come? Roddy is still one of the better WR’s in the NFL and Ryan’s rapport with him has not diminished.

1) Roddy is a tremendous player at creating separation at the LOS and over the years has developed into a solid route runner. His 'fight for the ball' skills and his catch radius (he’s 6’0) though are simply OK. Julio’s potential in his area is huge and if you saw his catch against TB in the final regular season game of the season, you saw a glimpse of the type of player he could be when fighting for the ball. Plus at a legit 6’3 220 with better speed than Roddy, with an off-season to improve his rapport with Ryan, he'll simply make for a more inviting target, particularly with a QB who has developed into a risk-averse one. Simply put, Julio already is more difficult to defend.

2) When the Falcons made the trade for Julio, a lot of people thought it was simply a win now move. But I’ve always seen it as a long-term move. Roddy White is 30. He’s still top tier NFL WR, but he won’t be Ryan’s top tier WR for the remainder of Ryan’s career. The Falcons motivation for the move was to provide Ryan his WR1 for the remainder of his career and allow Julio to grow into the role. My original prognostication was that this would happen in 2013/2014. But I’ve seen enough. He’s ready.

Prediction: 87 Receptions, 1339 Receiving Yards 12 TD’s; 7 Rushes 45 Yards.

 
I don't think this offense takes a step forward this season to be honest. New OC who hasn't really ever done anything. Ryan may be maxed out. Turner is going to fall off. I think we can expect maybe 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns here. You can't extrapolate numbers from last year.

70 catches

1100 yards

8 touchdowns

 
Love Julio Jones talent, but Roddy White will prevent Julio from entering the elite. Still a solid option, but may be a little inconsistent for my taste. Love him in dynasty leagues as he's a top option, #3 behind Calvin and AJ Green.

75 rec, 1125 yds, 8 TD

 
This issue feels like Deja vu to me.

When Reggie Wayne was ascending, there was alot of similar talk but in reality, it seems like until that guy (in this case, White) who has been very good and dependable actually leaves, the door never truly opens for the heir-apparent.

 
First off, good post by The Dirty Word. I didn't own Jones in any leagues last year so I didn't notice his time missed.

I agree with the notion that Julio could outproduce White this year. In his rookie season he caught 54 of 94 passes for 57.4% while White caught 100 of an astounding 179 targets for 55.9%. But Jones managed 17.8 ypc and 1 TD per 6.75 rec while White only got 13.0 ypc and 1 TD per 12.5 rec, both numbers within 10% of his career averages.

With a new offense, we can't just extrapolate numbers, but I'd have to think the Falcons plan on throwing the ball at least 550 times this year after throwing it nearly 600 times last year. If Jones plays all 16 games, it is a safe assumption he'll eat into some of White's targets. I believe 130 targets for Julio and 140 for White sound reasonable. I know White hasn't had less than 140 in four years, but with Jones' talent the Falcons no longer have incentive to keep forcing it to him. I think 75 rec is reasonable with 16 ypr. If he can manage 10 TD with those numbers, he'll handily outperform his WR13 ADP to end up as a mid-to-low tier WR1. If the new OC should choose to make him the feature WR on the Falcons then the sky is the limit.

130 targets, 75 receptions, 16.0 ypr, 1200 yds 10 TD

 
Also, is Tony Gonzalez at 36 going to continue to get 110-120 targets?
Im thinking his output is what suffers most. good offenses can support 2 elite wr's. Got to hope the new OC uses them correctly and they move away from ground n pound.
Since 2000, there have been 30 times when a team produced 3 WR + TE on the same team that scoed 100+ fantasy points (the 2011 Falcons being one of them).Five times in that timeframe a team produced 4 guys with 100+ fantasy points: 2011 NE, 2011 GB, 2011 DAL, 2009 PIT, and 2009 IND.So it is at least possible (albeit infrequent) that a team can have more than two big fantasy producers in as WR and TE. The fact that last year produced three teams with 4+ 100 point scores leads me to believe that we will likely see more teams with 4 guys this year. (Dodds projects NE to have 4 again this season.)
 
Roddy said something recently about the kid being featured more. Sounded like he was half complaining, half saying the right thing that he was OK with it. The guy is going to be targeted a TON.

80 catches

1200+ yards

12 TD's

 
Julio should benifit from Dirk's offense scheme this year but most importantly the no huddle which Matt Ryan is Top 3 in the league at running.

Too often they would pound turner for no reason and with the no huddle i dont expect Turner to see the field as much as Jaquizz.

Julio dropped a couple easy touchdowns last year which would have bolstered his stats. I see him as a mix of Dwayne Bowe and Boldin. While the latter two are red zone beasts i thnk that role will still belong to Tony G and Roddy on the other side.

80

1240

10

 
Personally, I think the hype is getting out of control. Everyone is spewing positives, no negatives. Let's bring in some reality:

Oline still stinks. Ryan will get beat up again. Who is the back-up if he misses time?

The most overlooked negative IMO, is that this dude is more than likely going to miss games every year due to the way he plays. You can't run through tackles and stiff arm defenders as a wide out and not get hurt. Just look at Dez.

I love his skill set and the way he plays like ADP as a WR, but the truth is he is going to miss 1-2 games a year.

70 - 950 - 9

 
I have two negatives:

1. injury problems dating back to college career at Alabama. I'm sure I'll get yelled at because many say injuries aren't prediictable, but his leg problems remind me of another potentially dominant WR who repeatedly has problems-Hakeem Nicks.

2. His pro rated numbers look great, but to me they look inflated by huge games vs. terrible defenses. He lit up the keystone kops Indy D for 2 very long TDs-you could argue that neither would have been TDs vs competent Ds-and the TB game was not their best effort. IIRC all of his TDs were against bad defenses. Contrast this to AJ Green who did very well against a much tougher schedule.

I keep hearing that he's killing everyone now that he has a full offseason under his belt, but I felt compelled to put those things out there

 
Julio Jones is one guy I am entering drafts and willing to possibly draft him higher than his ADP if I'm in a position that doesn't fit well with his ADP. He's going to be one of those hot guys in drafts, he won't slip so I am going to be aggressive on him. I think Atlamta passes more this year and I thimk Julio is a stud.

85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds

 
In case any of you are still wondering if he will break out

Falcons WRs coach Terry Robiskie believes Julio Jones can catch 80 passes this season "sleepwalking."

"We'll have some new wrinkles, a couple of things designed to get it in Julio's hands faster, so he can get it and go," explained Robiskie. "Julio is a massive man. When he runs, it's like being at a morning workout with horses in Kentucky – you can literally close your eyes and hear him running with power." Robiskie's comments are further confirmation that Jones is emerging as the offensive focal point in his second season. Observing Falcons practice Tuesday, Fox Sports' Jay Glazer tweeted, "Seeing Julio out here it's almost as if he's on a completely different plane than the defense. Kid is a stud!!!!"
 
Julio Jones is one guy I am entering drafts and willing to possibly draft him higher than his ADP if I'm in a position that doesn't fit well with his ADP. He's going to be one of those hot guys in drafts, he won't slip so I am going to be aggressive on him. I think Atlamta passes more this year and I thimk Julio is a stud.

85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds
I agree with what you said but will take the over on that stat line if he stays healthy.#2 wideout this year.

98-1475-12

 
Julio Jones is one guy I am entering drafts and willing to possibly draft him higher than his ADP if I'm in a position that doesn't fit well with his ADP. He's going to be one of those hot guys in drafts, he won't slip so I am going to be aggressive on him. I think Atlamta passes more this year and I thimk Julio is a stud.

85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds
I agree with what you said but will take the over on that stat line if he stays healthy.#2 wideout this year.

98-1475-12
How far are you willing to reach? His ADP has risen to 2.04 now.
 
Julio Jones is one guy I am entering drafts and willing to possibly draft him higher than his ADP if I'm in a position that doesn't fit well with his ADP. He's going to be one of those hot guys in drafts, he won't slip so I am going to be aggressive on him. I think Atlamta passes more this year and I thimk Julio is a stud.

85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds
I agree with what you said but will take the over on that stat line if he stays healthy.#2 wideout this year.

98-1475-12
How far are you willing to reach? His ADP has risen to 2.04 now.
Taking him at 1.12/2.01
 
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's

 
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Julio Jones is one guy I am entering drafts and willing to possibly draft him higher than his ADP if I'm in a position that doesn't fit well with his ADP. He's going to be one of those hot guys in drafts, he won't slip so I am going to be aggressive on him. I think Atlamta passes more this year and I thimk Julio is a stud.

85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds
I agree with what you said but will take the over on that stat line if he stays healthy.#2 wideout this year.

98-1475-12
How far are you willing to reach? His ADP has risen to 2.04 now.
If he is the guy you want to be your WR1, you reach as far as you have to IMO. Sometimes you go with your gut. If you plan on taking WR early, as many are, and the cheatsheets all have other WRs ranked higher with a higher ADP, so what? Julio's the guy you want...go get him. If you don't he won't be on your team.Now that is not to say that you reach all over the draft. Obviously value plays are a sginificant component to drafting. But in this case if you project him in the range I do, he will be a top 3 wideout and if he puts those numbers up, you won't be looking back second guessing where you took him in your August draft.

It all depends on what you think he will do this year.

 
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
this is exactly what I am talking about. While the experts may not see his production the way you do, there is no reason to hesitate taking him there if he will never make it back to you. ADP becomes irrelevant at that point.
 
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
this is exactly what I am talking about. While the experts may not see his production the way you do, there is no reason to hesitate taking him there if he will never make it back to you. ADP becomes irrelevant at that point.
I fully understand it's a bit of a leap of faith with Julio. Bottom line I play to win...and I'm a firm believer after playing FF for close to 17 years that playing it safe doesn't win championships....nailing the guys who explodes in a given year does. There's luck involved to be sure...but if Julio doesn't pan out I won't regret it one bit. I haven't felt this strongly about a young player since the year I took Matt Forte as a rookie in the 8th round in my big money league. To me all the leading indicators are there for fantasy greatness.I think his absolute floor is 10 TD's. In my eyes he's actually a "safe" pick since even if he doesn't have a Megatron-ish season...he'll still be VERY GOOD.I'm all in.
 
I think what you're all thinking about the BIG #'s... He's my #2 WR off the board. he's mine.

But when I see so many people on the train, it almost scares me. I thought I was alone a few months ago.

Alas, He'll still be mine.

 
Just when you think the hype can't get any higher...

By the day before game 1 his new "floor" will be 100/1700/16

The train has come off the rails.

 
Julio Jones is one guy I am entering drafts and willing to possibly draft him higher than his ADP if I'm in a position that doesn't fit well with his ADP. He's going to be one of those hot guys in drafts, he won't slip so I am going to be aggressive on him. I think Atlamta passes more this year and I thimk Julio is a stud.

85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds
I agree with what you said but will take the over on that stat line if he stays healthy.#2 wideout this year.

98-1475-12
Atlanta has way too many options for him to get that this year.
 
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
 
Obviously on his way to becoming the 4th member of the 100-1500-15 club (Rice, Moss& Harrison)

 
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.Point is....when you have a gut feeling about a guy you take him. Look at the option between picks #8 - #14

ADP - Completely off my board since I wouldn't draft him until at least the 3rd round and he'll be gone way before that based on name value alone. Want to talk about history? Let's discuss the drop off in productivity the year following ACL surgery....and it's not like ADP doesn't already have some mileage on him

Charles - I don't care if it happened in week 1 or week 16. An ACL surgery is an ACL surgery. Plus you're spending a pick this high on a guy who's going to be sharing carries and losing all goal line work.

Murray - Anyone who cites injuries or youth/inexperience/sample size as a case against Julio and then advocates taking Murray above him is quite possibly the biggest hypocrite in the history of this message board

MJD - Holding out. No end in sight. Already has a ton of mileage and a backup who looks like he's capable of running with the job if the holdout extends. This pick is the definition of risk.

Chris Johnson - Same as ADP with regards to being off my draft board based on the relative position he gets drafted. I've seen this movie before...it's the one where the guy gets paid a boat load of cash and loses the hunger to excel. We're not talking about a guy who had a bad year cause he got hurt...this guy played all 16 games and never found his groove. If I hear the "even with that he still finished in the top 10" argument again I may throw up. Ask any CJ owner who took him in the first round last year if those "top 10 numbers" helped their teams. The fact is almost any RB with a pulse in the NFL who stays healthy for a full 16 games and gets the workload he gets could stumble into a 1,000 yard season by accident. For the love of humanity, I still remember Kareem Abdul Jabaar getting 1,000 yards for the Phins back in the day. It's a pure volume stat....and furthermore it's not like you're getting him at a discount this year. He'll still cost you a first round pick.

Marshawn Lynch - My league is PPR...with TD's being such a fickle stat I have a hard time taking a guy who doesn't get a lot of receptions this high. Plus...Lynch was mediocre for a good 2 -3 years before he suddenly burst back on the scene in Seattle. I'm skeptical here.

And before anyone brings it up I know for a fact McFadden and Forte will be gone before I pick. It's against my religion to take a QB in the first round of a 4 pt passing td that has ppr.

The only argument I can understand is Jimmy Graham. But in a ultra competitive 12 man league with a flex position you're going to have a hard time recovering throughout the draft in terms of depth at rb/wr if you take a TE this early. I see more value waiting til round 3 or 4 and taking Gates if you really want to take a TE early.

So yeah...given his immediate neighbors in ADP land I just don't see how Julio is a bad pick at 1.08. I'd love to hear arguments on who offers his same upside in this range. This is a league where not many QB's will go in the first...it's entirely possible that one of the big 3 QB's or even Graham could make it back to me in the 2nd. Meanwhile there is zero chance Julio makes it back to me in the 2nd.

It should be noted I'm an upside down drafter to begin with...but even then I can't see the logic in taking any of the options above even if I was hell bent on taking a RB in this range.

 
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I love your conviction.
Could Julio bust? Or course. All you can do is take the guy that makes the most sense TO YOU and roll with it. You don't win your league by being conservative or following what the "sheep" or magazines say.Fact is I believe in this kid's pedigree, his pure talent. I'm not an Alabama fan by any stretch but I watch a ton of college football and this guy has simply always been a man among boys. It's not like I haven't done my research on this guy. You don't make a pick this out of line with the mainstream without having a reason behind the conviction. In my opinion all of the leading indicators are there that suggest a breakout. He's got a good QB, a good supporting cast which means he'll see a lot less double teams than he normally would on another team, a coordinator in Koetter who likes to attack downfield, and last and most importantly a %^#* - load of God given talent and measurables.As I mentioned above, based on the other guys going in this range I see little opportunity cost against taking Julio here. This is a year where drafting outside the top 5 is a disadvantage, more than most years I would say just based on how current ADP's are stacking up. You have to get creative/unconventional if you draw a draft position in "no man's land" if you want to field an explosive, competitive team.
 
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I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.
Yes when I am having talks over beer or whatever with my league mates I am always 100% truthful in my discussions with the up coming draft. I mean what could possibly go wrong?

 
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I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.
Yes when I am having talks over beer or whatever with my league mates I am always 100% truthful in my discussions with the up coming draft. I mean what could possibly go wrong?
Considering this is a 10 year league with the same original group of 12 friends whom I've known since High School....I'm pretty sure at this point I can spot when someone is posturing.

None of them know I'm THIS high on him. Those guys brought his name up on their own. I can say with 95% confidence he won't be there in the 2nd. And again...see my post above. The alternatives going in the same range all have a ton of question marks. Give me the guy with the greatest upside.

 
85 receptions. 1200 yards and 10 tds
98-1475-12
92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
These projections have gotten "jump-the-shark" out of control. I love the kid-drafted him over AJ Green last year and fully expect elite number for him for years to come-but seriously? Guys are projecting him to have one of the 10-15 best seasons in the history of the NFL. 1500/15 is not far off from Calvin's career best year (last year). I just think the hype is going to result in a big letdown for a lot of people who are reading these posts and are actually (unrealistically) expecting a guy who has Roddy White on the other side to still somehow grab 6 catches, 100 yards and 1 TD every single game this season.
 
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.
Yes when I am having talks over beer or whatever with my league mates I am always 100% truthful in my discussions with the up coming draft. I mean what could possibly go wrong?
Considering this is a 10 year league with the same original group of 12 friends whom I've known since High School....I'm pretty sure at this point I can spot when someone is posturing.

None of them know I'm THIS high on him. Those guys brought his name up on their own. I can say with 95% confidence he won't be there in the 2nd. And again...see my post above. The alternatives going in the same range all have a ton of question marks. Give me the guy with the greatest upside.
If you cannot spot the guppy in the group.........
 
92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
To add some historical perspective, a WR has posted a statline such as this only 6 times in history. 3 of these instances were by Jerry Rice. Calvin '11, Randy Moss '03 & Marvin Harrison '01 being the other 3 times.

 
92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
To add some historical perspective, a WR has posted a statline such as this only 6 times in history. 3 of these instances were by Jerry Rice. Calvin '11, Randy Moss '03 & Marvin Harrison '01 being the other 3 times.
Well, that depends on which part of or how close to the statline you are looking for.Moss did it in 2007 as well (98-1493-23), nearly in 2002 (106-1347-7), 2000 (77-1437-15), and 1999 (80-1413-11) and even 1998 (69-1313-17).

If you take that production in FPs, we are looking at 240 fantasy points (non-ppr because the historical data dominator lists FPs that way) and give just a bit of leeway, we have 22 WRs that scored 230 fantasy points or more.

I wouldn't PROJECT anybody for 1500-15, but it wouldn't surprise me if Julio was in that ballpark.

 
'pantherclub said:
'Ace08 said:
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.
Yes when I am having talks over beer or whatever with my league mates I am always 100% truthful in my discussions with the up coming draft. I mean what could possibly go wrong?
Considering this is a 10 year league with the same original group of 12 friends whom I've known since High School....I'm pretty sure at this point I can spot when someone is posturing.

None of them know I'm THIS high on him. Those guys brought his name up on their own. I can say with 95% confidence he won't be there in the 2nd. And again...see my post above. The alternatives going in the same range all have a ton of question marks. Give me the guy with the greatest upside.
If you cannot spot the guppy in the group.........
Well perhaps if you were in my league it would be easier to spot....
 
Why all the ruffles over semantics? Just because you "project" someone to get 1500 and 15 does it mean it's some sort of failure if he goes 1380 and 12 and doesn't hit these historical benchmarks? Who cares is he doesn't get exactly 90-1500-15. What if he gets 82 - 1380 - 12. Then what? he won't show up on your "historical data sheet" but you'll still end up looking back and saying he was well worth the early pick.

The point of all this is that I , along with others, think he'll be the #2 WR and well worth a late first round pick in a ppr league where QB's only get 4 pt per TD.

If anyone wants to poke holes in those last 2 sentences and state your case I welcome it. In one of my post above I pretty much laid out the other consensus guys going in the last 1st/early 2nd range. Would absolutely love to hear from some of you as to whom you think presents a better risk/reward profile than Julio from that spot.

 
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'pantherclub said:
'Ace08 said:
I'm going to put it out there and say it...I'm willing to take him in the first round with no hesitation. In my ultra competitive 12 man ppr league he's the talk of the league...I have the 8th pick and I know for a fact the guys at 10, 11, and 12 love him...no chance he makes it back to me in the second.....and he will be mine.

He'll rival Megatron for FF WR 1, consider him Optimus Prime if you will.

92 - 1500 - 15 TD's
Sounds to me like you are taking their bait.
Not sure what bait that would be since I'm basing it on conversations we all had amongst ourselves BEFORE the draft order came out.
Yes when I am having talks over beer or whatever with my league mates I am always 100% truthful in my discussions with the up coming draft. I mean what could possibly go wrong?
Considering this is a 10 year league with the same original group of 12 friends whom I've known since High School....I'm pretty sure at this point I can spot when someone is posturing.

None of them know I'm THIS high on him. Those guys brought his name up on their own. I can say with 95% confidence he won't be there in the 2nd. And again...see my post above. The alternatives going in the same range all have a ton of question marks. Give me the guy with the greatest upside.
If you cannot spot the guppy in the group.........
Well perhaps if you were in my league it would be easier to spot....
:goodposting:
 
Glad I drafted my one dynasty league early this summer...got him at 2.11 back on April 30th. Seems like a big bargain.

 

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