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DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, RBs, Carolina Panthers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart, RBs, Carolina Panthers

Player Page Link: Cam Newton Player Page

Each article will include:

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[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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Stay Away -- inside the 5 Cam is running the option all 3 plays and when Cam runs he's a damn tank to bring down. don't expect TD's

Williams 750 yds 5 TD's

Stewart 650 yds 3 TD's

Cam -- 600 yards - 12 TD's

EDIT Cam throw down field so don't expect much receptions either

 
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Don't forget they now have Mike Tolbert from SD who is talented enough to warrant his own touches. This is a fantasy wasteland for RBs, none should be drafted in the first 6 rounds.

 
All indications are that Tolbert was brought in to be a FB. He will get some touches, but I don't think he is going to get so many that it will hurt the RB production.

 
'The Moz said:
Stay Away -- inside the 5 Cam is running the option all 3 plays and when Cam runs he's a damn tank to bring down. don't expect TD's Williams 750 yds 5 TD'sStewart 650 yds 3 TD's Cam -- 600 yards - 12 TD'sEDIT Cam throw down field so don't expect much receptions either
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Why would you predict such low numbers all around? Are you expecting their carries to remain nearly the same with a dip in YPC?Do you really expect Cam to put up a dozen running Td's again?
 
'The Moz said:
Stay Away -- inside the 5 Cam is running the option all 3 plays and when Cam runs he's a damn tank to bring down. don't expect TD's Williams 750 yds 5 TD'sStewart 650 yds 3 TD's Cam -- 600 yards - 12 TD'sEDIT Cam throw down field so don't expect much receptions either
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What is the reasoning for projecting so many fewer yards for Williams and Stewart this year? Last year's production:Williams 971 total yards, 7 TDsStewart 1174 total yards, 5 TDs
 
I see no reason Rivera and Chudzinski deviate from the offensive philosophy of 2011. The Panthers main problem was on the defensive side of the ball. 450 carries and 2400 yards should be an obtainable number again for the Panthers.

The problem for all us fantasy owners is that there are at least three or four ways for those yards to be split up. 2011 showed us that Stewart is assuming the main role in the passing game. For PPR leagues, Stewart gains a bit more value.

While many (myself included) have thought a Stewart takeover was going to happen in 2009, 2010, 2011...it never did. I don't think 2012 is the year either. The Panthers have found a winning running game by rotating both backs and it is unlikely the coaching staff will stray from this approach.

The main factor in the Panthers RBs achieving reliability as every week flex players hinges on the number of rushing TDs that go to the RB position, as opposed to Cam Newton. I don't think 14 rushing TD's for Newton is a sustainable number, so I expect a few to come back to the RB position. However, Tolbert's presence at the goalline may be a negative factor for Williams/Stewart owners.

Williams:

160 carries, 880 yards, 5.5 YPC, 8TDs

20 receptions, 170 yards, 8.5 YPC, 0 TDs

Stewart

140 carries, 770 yards, 5.5 YPC, 5 TDs

50 receptions, 450 yards, 9 YPC, 3 TDs

 
'The Moz said:
Stay Away -- inside the 5 Cam is running the option all 3 plays and when Cam runs he's a damn tank to bring down. don't expect TD's Williams 750 yds 5 TD'sStewart 650 yds 3 TD's Cam -- 600 yards - 12 TD'sEDIT Cam throw down field so don't expect much receptions either
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I'm curious as to why you feel the #3 rushing team from last year (and #1 in YPC) who had over 2,400 rushing yards (150 per game average) will now have roughly 400 less yards and 6 fewer TDs.
 
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'matttyl said:
'The Moz said:
Stay Away -- inside the 5 Cam is running the option all 3 plays and when Cam runs he's a damn tank to bring down. don't expect TD's Williams 750 yds 5 TD'sStewart 650 yds 3 TD's Cam -- 600 yards - 12 TD'sEDIT Cam throw down field so don't expect much receptions either
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I'm curious as to why you feel the #3 rushing team from last year (and #1 in YPC) who had over 2,400 rushing yards (150 per game average) will now have roughly 400 less yards and 6 fewer TDs.
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Maybe Tolbert gets the 400 and 6 TDs... he's capable of it if they use him that way.
 
Any attempts at projections are just guess work.

All I know is that I want the guy knocking on the top ten all time yards per carry leader list at 5.1.

 
'FavreCo said:
Top 5 biggest cluster going. Probably #1.
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True, but usually when somone say that, we look back at it and see that SOMEONE got the steal of the year.2011-No one want to touch the Bills and the FJAX owners picked up a steal, for example.
 
'finito said:
'matttyl said:
'The Moz said:
Stay Away -- inside the 5 Cam is running the option all 3 plays and when Cam runs he's a damn tank to bring down. don't expect TD's Williams 750 yds 5 TD'sStewart 650 yds 3 TD's Cam -- 600 yards - 12 TD'sEDIT Cam throw down field so don't expect much receptions either
Click to expand...
I'm curious as to why you feel the #3 rushing team from last year (and #1 in YPC) who had over 2,400 rushing yards (150 per game average) will now have roughly 400 less yards and 6 fewer TDs.
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Maybe Tolbert gets the 400 and 6 TDs... he's capable of it if they use him that way.
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I'm just saying that these projections have all 3 of D Will, J Stew and Cam getting not only less rushing yards but also less rushing TDs. That just isn't going to happen. Cam is going to rush less, so there will be more rushing opportunities (yards and TDs) for the RBs I believe. We'll also see J Stew having more rushes than D Will I believe.J Stew - 190 rushes, 1000 yards, 11 TDs, along with 50 receptions for another 450 yards and 2 TDs.D Will - 135 rushes, 700 yards, 5 TDs, along with only 16 receptions (1 per game) for 125 and 0.
 
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.

 
'BassNBrew said:
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'Buck Stop said:
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.
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again this year? keep saying it enough times and maybe, just maybe you'll be right.
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Coming from BS it only further cements my opinion that DWill is the back to have in Carolina.
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Good, run out and buy D-Will everywhere you can jackwagon.
 
Last year, the Panthers only had 307 rushes out of their RBs. Why? The answer is fairly clear: Cam Newton. He had 126 carries. It is reasonable to assume that he will run less, as he becomes more comfortable in the Panther offense, at reading NFL defenses, and if he has other, viable receiving options besides Steve Smith. I think all 3 things are likely to happen in 2012, so I think he'll run less, but I still see him getting 75-100 carries. I also think the Panthers will run their RBs a little more this year. I see it being pretty close to a 50/50 split between Williams and Stewart, though.

Williams:

180 carries, 850 yards, 7 rush TD, 10 rec., 90 rec yards, 0 rec TD

Stewart:

170 carries, 814 yards, 8 rush TD, 39 rec., 308 rec yards, 1 rec TD

In non-PPR, Stewart would be a weak RB2, with Williams a RB3. However, both offer more potential value than that, if an injury were to strike the other (although Tolbert would likely get more touches in that scenario).

 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'Buck Stop said:
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.
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again this year? keep saying it enough times and maybe, just maybe you'll be right.
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Williams only had 14 more carries than Stewart last year- less than one a game. Stewart had 18 more total touches than Williams, and 200 more yards. Last year for the first time since Stewart entered the league, Williams came off the bench in a game (two, actually). Stewart has posted a higher ypc in each of the last two years (albeit last year just barely). I agree that it's unlikely that history will regard this season as the changing of the guard... but only because history will regard last year as the changing of the guard. Stewart out-touched Williams, out-scored Williams, and finally earned starts over Williams for the first time in their respective careers. And Williams is on the downslope, while Stewart is just entering his prime. If nothing else, I expect Stewart to out-touch and out-score Williams for a second consecutive season, whether Williams finally gives up the starting role or not.
 
'Synesthesia said:
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'Buck Stop said:
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.
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again this year? keep saying it enough times and maybe, just maybe you'll be right.
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Williams only had 14 more carries than Stewart last year- less than one a game. Stewart had 18 more total touches than Williams, and 200 more yards. Last year for the first time since Stewart entered the league, Williams came off the bench in a game (two, actually). Stewart has posted a higher ypc in each of the last two years (albeit last year just barely). I agree that it's unlikely that history will regard this season as the changing of the guard... but only because history will regard last year as the changing of the guard. Stewart out-touched Williams, out-scored Williams, and finally earned starts over Williams for the first time in their respective careers. And Williams is on the downslope, while Stewart is just entering his prime. If nothing else, I expect Stewart to out-touch and out-score Williams for a second consecutive season, whether Williams finally gives up the starting role or not.
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Good, factual posting. Stewart was the de facto starter last year in a nearly 50/50 split of touches. This year Williams is a year older and I expect it to be closer to 60/40 in favor of Stewart. Williams' production on a downward trend since his one big year in 2008. And he is now 29 years old.
 
Stewart has three things working in his favor:

-- Cam Newton will steal less carries from the RBs

-- Carolina as a team will run more, in the aggregate

-- Stewart should get a higher percentage of the RB carries

The Panthers will run more because they're going to be a better team this year. The Panthers ranked only 14th in rush attempts last year, and they should be in the top five or ten this season.

That might bump them from 445 to 475.

Newton should drop from 126 carries to maybe 90 carries.

That means the amount of non-Newton carries jumps from 319 to 385. Last year, Stewart had 45% of those carries. In his contract year, I expect the Panthers to ride him more; why waste the mileage on Williams? If he gets 55% of those carries, he goes from 142 to 212.

A 70-carry increase could mean big things for him. He should hit 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, and still be a solid receiver. If you grab a TE and a QB early, along go WR heavy early on and either a TE or QB, Stewart could be a great RB2 for an otherwise loaded team.

 
'Chase Stuart said:
If he gets 55% of those carries, he goes from 142 to 212.A 70-carry increase could mean big things for him. He should hit 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground,
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With 142 last year he had 761 (5.36 YPC)So with 212 carries he'd be over 1,100. In fact he could drop to 5.19 YPC and still hit 1,100 on 212 carries.Even 1,000 rushing with 6 TDs and the same receiving he had last year - 47/413/1...pretty much makes him what Ryan Mathews was last year (RB #11 in my league last year).
 
'az_prof said:
'Synesthesia said:
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'Buck Stop said:
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.
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again this year? keep saying it enough times and maybe, just maybe you'll be right.
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Williams only had 14 more carries than Stewart last year- less than one a game. Stewart had 18 more total touches than Williams, and 200 more yards. Last year for the first time since Stewart entered the league, Williams came off the bench in a game (two, actually). Stewart has posted a higher ypc in each of the last two years (albeit last year just barely). I agree that it's unlikely that history will regard this season as the changing of the guard... but only because history will regard last year as the changing of the guard. Stewart out-touched Williams, out-scored Williams, and finally earned starts over Williams for the first time in their respective careers. And Williams is on the downslope, while Stewart is just entering his prime. If nothing else, I expect Stewart to out-touch and out-score Williams for a second consecutive season, whether Williams finally gives up the starting role or not.
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Good, factual posting. Stewart was the de facto starter last year in a nearly 50/50 split of touches. This year Williams is a year older and I expect it to be closer to 60/40 in favor of Stewart. Williams' production on a downward trend since his one big year in 2008. And he is now 29 years old.
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I guess the other thing you always have to consider with these two is you feel compelled to take each of them a little higher than what you expect just in case one of them goes down because you know that either, in a solo-gig, can put up the fantasy numbers.
 
'Chase Stuart said:
Stewart has three things working in his favor:-- Cam Newton will steal less carries from the RBs-- Carolina as a team will run more, in the aggregate-- Stewart should get a higher percentage of the RB carriesThe Panthers will run more because they're going to be a better team this year. The Panthers ranked only 14th in rush attempts last year, and they should be in the top five or ten this season. That might bump them from 445 to 475.Newton should drop from 126 carries to maybe 90 carries.That means the amount of non-Newton carries jumps from 319 to 385. Last year, Stewart had 45% of those carries. In his contract year, I expect the Panthers to ride him more; why waste the mileage on Williams? If he gets 55% of those carries, he goes from 142 to 212.A 70-carry increase could mean big things for him. He should hit 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, and still be a solid receiver. If you grab a TE and a QB early, along go WR heavy early on and either a TE or QB, Stewart could be a great RB2 for an otherwise loaded team.
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Wow. The logic behind Stewart seeing his carries increase a whopping 50% just doesn't seem to be backed up by anything tangible IMHO.Where is the evidence that Cam will run less? Last season a whole lot of us thought the same thing as the season wore on but in fact out of Cam's 125 carries slightly over 50% (63) were in the last eight games.Most believe that Cam's passing skills have nowhere to go but up. Why put the shackles on ostensibly your best offensive weapon in an increasingly pass-first league? Again, last year when everyone thought the CAR RB's were in for a big year with the green new rookie.The contract year argument just doesn't seem plausible to me as why Stewart should get more carries than Williams. Again, last year conventional wisdom was that DWill was going to be The Man because he just got the big contract. That logic obviously was wrong.Plus the addition of Tolbert is going to cut into everyone's carries.Chudzinski is the new Shanahan when it comes to the running game. Carolina is the first-ever QB/RB/FBC. I agree that CAR will have a Top 5 running game, probably around 2600 yards. But predicting how those yards will be distributed in a way other than similar last year's distribution (adding in a small slice for Tolbert) doesn't seem well-supported IMO.ProjectionsWilliams - 170/900/9 ; 15/150/0Stewart - 160/850/7 ; 45/400/2Tolbert - 50/200/3 ; 15/150/0Cam - 120/700/9
 
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'PhantomJB said:
'Chase Stuart said:
Stewart has three things working in his favor:-- Cam Newton will steal less carries from the RBs-- Carolina as a team will run more, in the aggregate-- Stewart should get a higher percentage of the RB carriesThe Panthers will run more because they're going to be a better team this year. The Panthers ranked only 14th in rush attempts last year, and they should be in the top five or ten this season. That might bump them from 445 to 475.Newton should drop from 126 carries to maybe 90 carries.That means the amount of non-Newton carries jumps from 319 to 385. Last year, Stewart had 45% of those carries. In his contract year, I expect the Panthers to ride him more; why waste the mileage on Williams? If he gets 55% of those carries, he goes from 142 to 212.A 70-carry increase could mean big things for him. He should hit 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, and still be a solid receiver. If you grab a TE and a QB early, along go WR heavy early on and either a TE or QB, Stewart could be a great RB2 for an otherwise loaded team.
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Wow. The logic behind Stewart seeing his carries increase a whopping 50% just doesn't seem to be backed up by anything tangible IMHO.Where is the evidence that Cam will run less? Last season a whole lot of us thought the same thing as the season wore on but in fact out of Cam's 125 carries slightly over 50% (63) were in the last eight games.Most believe that Cam's passing skills have nowhere to go but up. Why put the shackles on ostensibly your best offensive weapon in an increasingly pass-first league? Again, last year when everyone thought the CAR RB's were in for a big year with the green new rookie.The contract year argument just doesn't seem plausible to me as why Stewart should get more carries than Williams. Again, last year conventional wisdom was that DWill was going to be The Man because he just got the big contract. That logic obviously was wrong.Plus the addition of Tolbert is going to cut into everyone's carries.Chudzinski is the new Shanahan when it comes to the running game. Carolina is the first-ever QB/RB/FBC. I agree that CAR will have a Top 5 running game, probably around 2600 yards. But predicting how those yards will be distributed in a way other than similar last year's distribution (adding in a small slice for Tolbert) doesn't seem well-supported IMO.ProjectionsWilliams - 170/900/9 ; 15/150/0Stewart - 160/850/7 ; 45/400/2Tolbert - 50/200/3 ; 15/150/0Cam - 120/700/9
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:goodposting:
 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'Buck Stop said:
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.
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again this year? keep saying it enough times and maybe, just maybe you'll be right.
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Looks like it's already happened, BSS....DeAngelo Williams played just 42.7 percent of the Panthers' offensive snaps last season compared to 55.2 percent for Jonathan Stewart. Analysis: Stewart's percentage actually ranks in the top-12 among NFL backs. Williams, on the other hand, stands to lose a few snaps in 2012 with Mike Tolbert expected to take on a bigger running and receiving role than a typical fullback. Throw in Williams' absence in the red zone, and it's hard to find fantasy upside barring a Stewart injury.
 
'matttyl said:
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'Buck Stop said:
I would be shocked if Williams has more carries than Stewart this season. I think if nothing else, we'll see the passing of the guard so to speak as to who's the starter this year.
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again this year? keep saying it enough times and maybe, just maybe you'll be right.
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Looks like it's already happened, BSS....DeAngelo Williams played just 42.7 percent of the Panthers' offensive snaps last season compared to 55.2 percent for Jonathan Stewart. Analysis: Stewart's percentage actually ranks in the top-12 among NFL backs. Williams, on the other hand, stands to lose a few snaps in 2012 with Mike Tolbert expected to take on a bigger running and receiving role than a typical fullback. Throw in Williams' absence in the red zone, and it's hard to find fantasy upside barring a Stewart injury.
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Williams in on 1st down.Stewart in on 2nd down.Tolbert in on 3rd down.If they get a 1st down on the 1st play, anyone's guess who is the Rb for the next play, probably Stewart.What a mess. Just a few years back, what used to be Williams for the whole series and then Stewart for a whole series has turned into now 3 low end RBs watching Newton run in the TD.
 
'FavreCo said:
What a mess. Just a few years back, what used to be Williams for the whole series and then Stewart for a whole series has turned into now 3 low end RBs watching Newton run in the TD.
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Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't think that Tolbert will eat into either D Will or J Stew's carries or yards or TDs. I think whatever he gets is going to be additional stuff from what they had last year (2,400 rushing yards, 26 rushing TDs, 550 receiving yards by RBs with another TD). Maybe I'm also in the minority thinking that Cam will run the ball less this year (700 yards and 14 TDs). Lets assume that Cam runs it 1/3rd less - that's 233 yards and about 5 TDs back in the "pie". Now we're talking about a RB pie with 1,933 yards rushing, 17 rushing TDs, with (assuming nothing changes) another 550 receiving yards with another TD. Even if you split it right down the middle, you're talking about two solid #2 RBs. If one of them gets the lion's share (which is what happened last year at least in on the field time) which I believe will be J Stew, you're talking about a high end #2 RB possibly low end #1. Should D Will miss some time, you're looking at a solid #1 RB.
 
Its been a long time since we have seen a true franchise QB be a consistent threat in the running game. I know Cam isn't Mike vick anymore than he is Daunte culpepper or Steve Young, but there is a commonmessage with all of them: The more your QB runs, the more likely he is to get injured. So if you have what you believe is a true franchise QB, then at some point you are probably less likely to risk him. It would seem to reason that his exposure to hits will decrease one way or the other. How you divide that up among the RBs is probably like throwing darts at a wheel, barring injury.

 
'matttyl said:
'FavreCo said:
What a mess. Just a few years back, what used to be Williams for the whole series and then Stewart for a whole series has turned into now 3 low end RBs watching Newton run in the TD.
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Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't think that Tolbert will eat into either D Will or J Stew's carries or yards or TDs. I think whatever he gets is going to be additional stuff from what they had last year (2,400 rushing yards, 26 rushing TDs, 550 receiving yards by RBs with another TD). Maybe I'm also in the minority thinking that Cam will run the ball less this year (700 yards and 14 TDs). Lets assume that Cam runs it 1/3rd less - that's 233 yards and about 5 TDs back in the "pie". Now we're talking about a RB pie with 1,933 yards rushing, 17 rushing TDs, with (assuming nothing changes) another 550 receiving yards with another TD. Even if you split it right down the middle, you're talking about two solid #2 RBs. If one of them gets the lion's share (which is what happened last year at least in on the field time) which I believe will be J Stew, you're talking about a high end #2 RB possibly low end #1. Should D Will miss some time, you're looking at a solid #1 RB.
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With a fullback on the field you would think there would be less reason to take off and run instead of going through the progressions - which supports the above :goodposting:Personally I've got my money on DeAngelo, but that is merely a value issue - he can be had a lot cheaper than Stewart, and if he comes even near his best he'll be a solid RB2.
 
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Stewart finished RB25 last year and now carries a RB27 price tag while Williams finished RB26 and now carries a RB31 price tag. Given a few factors, I'm going to have to say Stewart is the only one that appears to have value here.

First, I like the stat someone pulled about Stewart being on the field 55.2% of the offensive snaps compared to 42.7% for Williams.

Second, I do put some stock into this elusive rating.

Finally, I like the chances of Newton's rushing TDs decreasing.

Everyone thought Vick was going to score most of Philly's rushing TDs last year, but he scored just one while handing off to McCoy the majority of the time. If Carolina wants to protect Newton they'll start handing off to their RBs in the red zone and I expect Stewart to be the beneficiary here.

Additionally, it is criminal to average 5.3 ypc and only rush the ball 307 times. I expect that number to approach 400 if they can stay in games this year.

Stewart 180 carries x 4.8 ypc = 864 yards 8 TD, 45 rec, 400 yds 1 TD

Williams 170 carries x 4.8 ypc = 816 yards 5 TD, 15 rec, 125 yds 0 TD

 
I find it interesting that everyone seems to think that Stewart is going to take over the larger role as far as carries goes but also feel he will continue to get more receptions as well. If Stewart is going to take over as the leading rusher, would Williams not then be used more on 3rd downs and see the reception roles reverse as well?

 
'jurb26 said:
I find it interesting that everyone seems to think that Stewart is going to take over the larger role as far as carries goes but also feel he will continue to get more receptions as well. If Stewart is going to take over as the leading rusher, would Williams not then be used more on 3rd downs and see the reception roles reverse as well?
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At first glance I wanted to scoff at this suggestion and point out that Stewart had more receptions last year than Williams has had in any year during a six year career. Then I went back and looked at 2010 a little closer. In that lost season, Williams was hurt in the sixth game of the season and most thought that Stewart would get to be a three down running back. Then Mike Goodson burst onto the scene and became the primary receiving option out of the backfield. The coaching staff is different now than in 2010, but 2011 showed that the Panthers could involve different backs in the receiving game. Stewart's previous reception high was 18. If Stewart picks up the lion' share of the carries, it wouldn't surprise me to see Williams the predominant passing option.
 
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'jurb26 said:
I find it interesting that everyone seems to think that Stewart is going to take over the larger role as far as carries goes but also feel he will continue to get more receptions as well. If Stewart is going to take over as the leading rusher, would Williams not then be used more on 3rd downs and see the reception roles reverse as well?
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Last year, DeAngelo had 23 targets, 15 receptions, and 103 yards receiving on 1st and 2nd down. Stewart had 43 targets, 34 receptions, and 313 receiving yards on 1st and 2nd down. Stewart didn't dominate Williams in receptions because he just happened to be on the field on 3rd down, he dominated Williams in receptions because he's a substantially better receiver than Williams is. Putting Williams on the field on 3rd down won't do a thing to change that. Putting Stewart on the field more on 1st and 2nd down will result in more receiving opportunities, not fewer.
 
Has anyone in Carolina actually come out and said that cam will run less? A lot of people here and elsewhere are stating his carries are going down as though its fact. I really don't know if this has been vetted so if it has, lo siento. I seem to remember a lot of his rushes (not just at the goaline) were called plays and not just him trying to make a play. He knew the play book and excelled at passing and reading defenses, was a tank to bring down and was their 'franchise investment' last year. What has changed to make people think the way he is used will be modified? Serious question.

ETA: sorry, not trying to hijack but, how cam is used is going to greatly affect what FF points are left for these guys.

 
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Why would you run anyone but Cam inside the 5 when the guy is almost unstoppable in short yardage or at least was last year. Inside the 5 will be a pass run option for Cam at least 60% of the time the other 40% will be runs by any of the 3.

My initial post wasn't total yardage just rushing when factoring in Tolberts effect.

Unless J-Stew breaks out

I can't see anything more than

6-700 yds ru by Stewart

6-700 yds ru by Williams

Maybe 20-25 rec by Dwill and another 20 by Stew for 400 yards total

Tolbert - maybe 2-300 yards and 20-25 recptions

TD's are tough to predict with all but Cam as he will get 10 at least on the ground with 500 or more yards running -- and thats a lowball figure.

NO Carolina back is startable unless you really have nothing else. Maybe as a low #3 RB. JUst seems their backs are much more capable of getting you 2-5 points than 15 or more.

I do think Carolina will have a solid all around running game especially with the OLine upgrade but it will be spread around.

 
The Moz said:
Why would you run anyone but Cam inside the 5 when the guy is almost unstoppable in short yardage or at least was last year. Inside the 5 will be a pass run option for Cam at least 60% of the time the other 40% will be runs by any of the 3.

TD's are tough to predict with all but Cam as he will get 10 at least on the ground with 500 or more yards running -- and thats a lowball figure.

FYI:

In 2011 Carolina had 26 rushes for 30 yards when scrimmage was from the 5 yard line in. Newton had 14 rushes for 19 yards and 8 td's. Stewart had 10 rushes, 7 yards and 3 td's. DeAngelo had 2 rushes, 4 yards and 1 td.

So Cam did have more td's per carry than the 2 rb's while getting about 54% of the carries.

I could see about the same this season, but who really knows. Lot of time left before the season starts.
Click to expand...
 
the people holding Williams' age against him should put it in the context of 1000 career carries. The splitting carries is why he's not a fantasy stud but it could also be keeping some tread on the tires. He's not a young back but he's not Stephen Jackson or Michael Turner. in 2008 he had 18 TD on 270 carries I highly doubt will ever produce that again but he's got greatness in him and still a talented player.

 
'Chase Stuart said:
Stewart has three things working in his favor:-- Cam Newton will steal less carries from the RBs-- Carolina as a team will run more, in the aggregate-- Stewart should get a higher percentage of the RB carriesThe Panthers will run more because they're going to be a better team this year. The Panthers ranked only 14th in rush attempts last year, and they should be in the top five or ten this season. That might bump them from 445 to 475.Newton should drop from 126 carries to maybe 90 carries.That means the amount of non-Newton carries jumps from 319 to 385. Last year, Stewart had 45% of those carries. In his contract year, I expect the Panthers to ride him more; why waste the mileage on Williams? If he gets 55% of those carries, he goes from 142 to 212.A 70-carry increase could mean big things for him. He should hit 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, and still be a solid receiver. If you grab a TE and a QB early, along go WR heavy early on and either a TE or QB, Stewart could be a great RB2 for an otherwise loaded team.
Click to expand...
Chase why are you assuming Stewart get that increase?And what about Tolbert? - they didnt get him to warm the bench
 
I'm liking Tolbert a lot more than most. You can get him for virtually nothing and I see him as a good RB3/RB4 this season. He also has the upside of a RB1/RB2 with injuries. In dynasty, Stewart or Williams will be gone in 2013. Tolbert can handle a heavy workload and can also catch the ball. Tolbert could have went to a lot of teams but chose to come to CAR. You think he went there because he just wanted to be a FB? I'm investing in him. You might be waiting a long time for Stewart and Williams is slowing down as injuries pile up.

 
IMHO, the big reason why Carolina wouldn't primarily run Cam Newton inside the 5 yard line is, in short, because it's now 2012. In 2011, the Panthers spent the season learning just what they had in their star QB. He exploded onto the NFL scene with an absolutely MONSTROUS statistical season that no one predicted. The Panthers turned him loose, and let him show them what he was, unencumbered by developmental goals and expectations, and enjoyed the ride. 2011 was also the rest of the NFL's 'getting to know you' 1st date with Newton as well, and that unfamiliarity contributed in some measure to his success. As happens every year, once the season ended, and the honeymoon phase of the relationship, everyone had a chance to sit back and reflect, evaluate and analyze 16+ hours of game film. Now, the real work begins for both the Panthers coaching staff, and Defensive Coordinators of 31 other NFL teams.

It's basic, common sense transitional football strategy, which we see engaged in, year in, year out. The Panthers have come to grips with the fact that they have a legitimate Franchise Player who's the cornerstone of their Offense. He can be a great pure QB if he's allowed to develop, and doesn't get hurt. They also have to have come to grips with the fact that they are excitingly close, and if anything happens to Newton, they can't put anyone on their roster under center who can make their offense anywhere near as effective and as mismatch oriented as it is when he's delegating the scheme. That directly affects the effectiveness of every other skill position player. On the flip side, Defensive Coordinators across the League have to have come to grips with the fact that a key to neutralizing the Panthers Offense is physically punishing him as a runner when he chooses to carry the ball. IMHO, it has to be focal point of every DC's strategy that when there's an opportunity to physically defense a running Newton, teams have to take their shots. Physical vs physical, only this time, they aren't learning on the fly, but via film and experience. Whatever they are, Newton has weaknesses to his game, that NFL caliber DC's are going to find and exploit this off season, including how he defends himself as a runner. He will be defended differently, and aggressively. There will be ways to punish Cam the runner, cloud his thinking, and force him to be indecisive instead of instinctive. Forcing Cam to prematurely take the ball down and run is a much more inviting proposition than allowing him to develop his in-game quarterbacking skills, and becoming a better QB. The Panthers have to know this, and have to focus on balancing the offense by developing Cam Newton the QB, vs Cam Newton the athlete, and find new ways for Cam to solve opposing defenses with increasing emphasis on his head and arm, because Cam the well-rounded QB is a much more complex and difficult weapon to defend. A running Newton is an invitation to whack him, and potentially get him off his game, or off the field. That's the simplest, most brutally effective, way to beat the Panthers, and it's perfectly reasonable within the rules and accepted strategy of the game. The Panthers simply cannot afford to allow that to happen.

I like Mike Goodson, and think he has it in him to develop into a starter-caliber NFL RB, but with Williams, Stewart and Newton, the Panthers didn't need that for 2012. So they moved him for an O-Lineman, and brought in multi-dimensional FB Mike Tolbert, as their new wrinkle. A guy who now gives them 3 unique specialized options in the running game, and especially in the Red Zone, which offers them another opportunity to lessen the punishment on their prize piece. I think Tolbert will affect the production of Newton, Stewart and Williams, but particularly in the Red Zone. I don't think he necessarily severely impacts the carries, receptions and yardage of Stewart and Williams, who will rack up massive amounts between the 20's, but he will affect Red Zone opportunities and TD's for everyone, simply to lessen the exposure of Newton to the debilitating punishment which, logically ought to be part of every game plan to defense him in 2012. I think TE Olsen will have an impact there as well.

I also think signing Tolbert was a forward-thinking move by the Panthers in preparation for the departure of Stewart next season, or possibly this one, if an injury riddled team comes calling. I imagine that might have been part of the 'sell' to bring Tolbert on board. Certainly many players weigh opportunity into their signing equation, but the other pieces are money, and the chance to win Championships. The Panthers offer a nice short and long term realization of all three elements.

It's too early for me to start projecting statistics, but I imagine Williams and Stewart will have remarkably identical seasons, and both will offer low end RB1 /high end RB2 upside, possibly limited by the number of Red Zone rushing TD's they generate, because of the presence of Tolbert and inclusion of Olsen. Newton's Red Zone touches, rushing opportunities and TD production will be limited by these pieces as well. I will rank both higher in yardage-based Leagues, because I think the offense can support two fantasy starter caliber RB's. Now that the Panthers know what they have in Newton, and so does everyone else, it absolutely behooves them to limit the amount of punishment Newton is exposed to in the running game, because without him on the field, they're a remarkably different, and much less imposing, offense.

Just my .02...

 
Another mess fantasy wise...both are good backs but both will water down each others stats. If you don't have a terrific matchup which one do you play? which one will get the TD this week? Your guess is as good as mine...There's definite upside if one of them gets hurt but I'll let someone else waste a roster spot hoping for an injury.

 
'nittanylion said:
IMHO, the big reason why Carolina wouldn't primarily run Cam Newton inside the 5 yard line is, in short, because it's now 2012. In 2011, the Panthers spent the season learning just what they had in their star QB. He exploded onto the NFL scene with an absolutely MONSTROUS statistical season that no one predicted. The Panthers turned him loose, and let him show them what he was, unencumbered by developmental goals and expectations, and enjoyed the ride. 2011 was also the rest of the NFL's 'getting to know you' 1st date with Newton as well, and that unfamiliarity contributed in some measure to his success. As happens every year, once the season ended, and the honeymoon phase of the relationship, everyone had a chance to sit back and reflect, evaluate and analyze 16+ hours of game film. Now, the real work begins for both the Panthers coaching staff, and Defensive Coordinators of 31 other NFL teams.It's basic, common sense transitional football strategy, which we see engaged in, year in, year out. The Panthers have come to grips with the fact that they have a legitimate Franchise Player who's the cornerstone of their Offense. He can be a great pure QB if he's allowed to develop, and doesn't get hurt. They also have to have come to grips with the fact that they are excitingly close, and if anything happens to Newton, they can't put anyone on their roster under center who can make their offense anywhere near as effective and as mismatch oriented as it is when he's delegating the scheme. That directly affects the effectiveness of every other skill position player. On the flip side, Defensive Coordinators across the League have to have come to grips with the fact that a key to neutralizing the Panthers Offense is physically punishing him as a runner when he chooses to carry the ball. IMHO, it has to be focal point of every DC's strategy that when there's an opportunity to physically defense a running Newton, teams have to take their shots. Physical vs physical, only this time, they aren't learning on the fly, but via film and experience. Whatever they are, Newton has weaknesses to his game, that NFL caliber DC's are going to find and exploit this off season, including how he defends himself as a runner. He will be defended differently, and aggressively. There will be ways to punish Cam the runner, cloud his thinking, and force him to be indecisive instead of instinctive. Forcing Cam to prematurely take the ball down and run is a much more inviting proposition than allowing him to develop his in-game quarterbacking skills, and becoming a better QB. The Panthers have to know this, and have to focus on balancing the offense by developing Cam Newton the QB, vs Cam Newton the athlete, and find new ways for Cam to solve opposing defenses with increasing emphasis on his head and arm, because Cam the well-rounded QB is a much more complex and difficult weapon to defend. A running Newton is an invitation to whack him, and potentially get him off his game, or off the field. That's the simplest, most brutally effective, way to beat the Panthers, and it's perfectly reasonable within the rules and accepted strategy of the game. The Panthers simply cannot afford to allow that to happen.I like Mike Goodson, and think he has it in him to develop into a starter-caliber NFL RB, but with Williams, Stewart and Newton, the Panthers didn't need that for 2012. So they moved him for an O-Lineman, and brought in multi-dimensional FB Mike Tolbert, as their new wrinkle. A guy who now gives them 3 unique specialized options in the running game, and especially in the Red Zone, which offers them another opportunity to lessen the punishment on their prize piece. I think Tolbert will affect the production of Newton, Stewart and Williams, but particularly in the Red Zone. I don't think he necessarily severely impacts the carries, receptions and yardage of Stewart and Williams, who will rack up massive amounts between the 20's, but he will affect Red Zone opportunities and TD's for everyone, simply to lessen the exposure of Newton to the debilitating punishment which, logically ought to be part of every game plan to defense him in 2012. I think TE Olsen will have an impact there as well.I also think signing Tolbert was a forward-thinking move by the Panthers in preparation for the departure of Stewart next season, or possibly this one, if an injury riddled team comes calling. I imagine that might have been part of the 'sell' to bring Tolbert on board. Certainly many players weigh opportunity into their signing equation, but the other pieces are money, and the chance to win Championships. The Panthers offer a nice short and long term realization of all three elements.It's too early for me to start projecting statistics, but I imagine Williams and Stewart will have remarkably identical seasons, and both will offer low end RB1 /high end RB2 upside, possibly limited by the number of Red Zone rushing TD's they generate, because of the presence of Tolbert and inclusion of Olsen. Newton's Red Zone touches, rushing opportunities and TD production will be limited by these pieces as well. I will rank both higher in yardage-based Leagues, because I think the offense can support two fantasy starter caliber RB's. Now that the Panthers know what they have in Newton, and so does everyone else, it absolutely behooves them to limit the amount of punishment Newton is exposed to in the running game, because without him on the field, they're a remarkably different, and much less imposing, offense.Just my .02...
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
'nittanylion said:
IMHO, the big reason why Carolina wouldn't primarily run Cam Newton inside the 5 yard line is, in short, because it's now 2012. In 2011, the Panthers spent the season learning just what they had in their star QB. He exploded onto the NFL scene with an absolutely MONSTROUS statistical season that no one predicted. The Panthers turned him loose, and let him show them what he was, unencumbered by developmental goals and expectations, and enjoyed the ride. 2011 was also the rest of the NFL's 'getting to know you' 1st date with Newton as well, and that unfamiliarity contributed in some measure to his success. As happens every year, once the season ended, and the honeymoon phase of the relationship, everyone had a chance to sit back and reflect, evaluate and analyze 16+ hours of game film. Now, the real work begins for both the Panthers coaching staff, and Defensive Coordinators of 31 other NFL teams.It's basic, common sense transitional football strategy, which we see engaged in, year in, year out. The Panthers have come to grips with the fact that they have a legitimate Franchise Player who's the cornerstone of their Offense. He can be a great pure QB if he's allowed to develop, and doesn't get hurt. They also have to have come to grips with the fact that they are excitingly close, and if anything happens to Newton, they can't put anyone on their roster under center who can make their offense anywhere near as effective and as mismatch oriented as it is when he's delegating the scheme. That directly affects the effectiveness of every other skill position player. On the flip side, Defensive Coordinators across the League have to have come to grips with the fact that a key to neutralizing the Panthers Offense is physically punishing him as a runner when he chooses to carry the ball. IMHO, it has to be focal point of every DC's strategy that when there's an opportunity to physically defense a running Newton, teams have to take their shots. Physical vs physical, only this time, they aren't learning on the fly, but via film and experience. Whatever they are, Newton has weaknesses to his game, that NFL caliber DC's are going to find and exploit this off season, including how he defends himself as a runner. He will be defended differently, and aggressively. There will be ways to punish Cam the runner, cloud his thinking, and force him to be indecisive instead of instinctive. Forcing Cam to prematurely take the ball down and run is a much more inviting proposition than allowing him to develop his in-game quarterbacking skills, and becoming a better QB. The Panthers have to know this, and have to focus on balancing the offense by developing Cam Newton the QB, vs Cam Newton the athlete, and find new ways for Cam to solve opposing defenses with increasing emphasis on his head and arm, because Cam the well-rounded QB is a much more complex and difficult weapon to defend. A running Newton is an invitation to whack him, and potentially get him off his game, or off the field. That's the simplest, most brutally effective, way to beat the Panthers, and it's perfectly reasonable within the rules and accepted strategy of the game. The Panthers simply cannot afford to allow that to happen.I like Mike Goodson, and think he has it in him to develop into a starter-caliber NFL RB, but with Williams, Stewart and Newton, the Panthers didn't need that for 2012. So they moved him for an O-Lineman, and brought in multi-dimensional FB Mike Tolbert, as their new wrinkle. A guy who now gives them 3 unique specialized options in the running game, and especially in the Red Zone, which offers them another opportunity to lessen the punishment on their prize piece. I think Tolbert will affect the production of Newton, Stewart and Williams, but particularly in the Red Zone. I don't think he necessarily severely impacts the carries, receptions and yardage of Stewart and Williams, who will rack up massive amounts between the 20's, but he will affect Red Zone opportunities and TD's for everyone, simply to lessen the exposure of Newton to the debilitating punishment which, logically ought to be part of every game plan to defense him in 2012. I think TE Olsen will have an impact there as well.I also think signing Tolbert was a forward-thinking move by the Panthers in preparation for the departure of Stewart next season, or possibly this one, if an injury riddled team comes calling. I imagine that might have been part of the 'sell' to bring Tolbert on board. Certainly many players weigh opportunity into their signing equation, but the other pieces are money, and the chance to win Championships. The Panthers offer a nice short and long term realization of all three elements.It's too early for me to start projecting statistics, but I imagine Williams and Stewart will have remarkably identical seasons, and both will offer low end RB1 /high end RB2 upside, possibly limited by the number of Red Zone rushing TD's they generate, because of the presence of Tolbert and inclusion of Olsen. Newton's Red Zone touches, rushing opportunities and TD production will be limited by these pieces as well. I will rank both higher in yardage-based Leagues, because I think the offense can support two fantasy starter caliber RB's. Now that the Panthers know what they have in Newton, and so does everyone else, it absolutely behooves them to limit the amount of punishment Newton is exposed to in the running game, because without him on the field, they're a remarkably different, and much less imposing, offense.Just my .02...
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Like I said though, while all of what you stated above is true; it was true last year. I'll give you the exception is that defensive coordinators have an entire off-season to analyze game film (though they had plenty of film throughout the season) but I would counter with the fact that Cam now has a full off season to improve on his knowledge of the playbook/develop an even better rapport with his WRs/etc..Don't know which way its going to go but it is definitely exciting. /hijack
 
I think people are overestimating Tolbert's effect. I'm pretty sure he's going to be a FB for them unless they are pressed into using him as a RB. Could he be the next Nick Goings? Sure. But with Stewart around, I doubt we see much of Tolbert with the ball.

 
I'm in on DeWill 50DW-25JS-25MT

still doesnt mean i'll draft him

dewill

1000 yards

6 tds

15 rec, 150 rec yards

js 750 yards

4 tds

30 rec 400 yards

mt 400 yards

5 tds

40 rec 500 yards

 
sounds like this mess might just keep going:

Jonathan Stewart says he has no plans to play with any other team except for the Carolina Panthers. The running back is in the final year of his rookie contract, but says he's fine where he is
Click to expand...
 
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