Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Michael Vick Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

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Last year, Vick was in the conversation for #1 pick overall in FF. Matthew Berry famously (or foolishly) advocated for this over at ESPN.com. Whatever your belief was on that, there was no doubt that after his sensational 2010 season that Vick was a no doubt about it first rounder.

Fast forward a year later and while 2011 was not as stellar as 2010, Vick finds himself planted with a mid 4th round ADP. What gives?

1) His turnovers increased – in 13 games he threw 14 INT’s compared to 6 in 2010.

2) His rushing TD’s disappeared dropping from 9 to 1.

Those were the major areas of decline for Vick when comparing 2010 & 2011. However…

1) His 2011 passing YPG stayed at 2010 levels.

2) His YPA dropped from 8.1 to 7.8…but this is still a very solid figure.

3) His completion rate dropped from 62.6% to 59.8%. What this means is that Vick equals his 2010 completion rate with about 1 more completion/game.

4) His YPC average went from 6.8 to 7.8.

Vick, even back in his Atlanta days, was and is always about the upside potential. The ‘what if’ equation with him has always been mind-blowing because of the potential for his run/pass combination ability. In Atlanta, he simply could never justify that upside potential because his passing stats were so anemic. While his rushing stats could make up for that deficiency – it was never really an added bonus. But under Reid, Vick has actually been able to combine his rush/pass ability into a FF force that with the exception of Cam Newton and perhaps to a lesser extent Aaron Rodgers, could not be replicated. 2010 represented the actual fruition of upside potential, but his pullback seemed justifiable given the awkward off-season of 2011.

Did Vick’s performance decline from 2010? Yes. But to be fair, Vick’s top 2 WR’s were not operating at 100% peak efficiency (Maclin struggled with his mysterious illness and faded badly in the 2nd half of the season and D-Jax sulked his way through not having his contract demands met throughout the year). Do I want to pin Vick’s decline only on that? No. But consider that the 4th leading WR on the Eagles was Jason Avant with 679 yards and it would be tough to argue that despite Vick’s ‘down’ year, he hasn’t made drastic improvements in his ability to incorporate multiple and diverse elements of the passing game.

For me, Vick presents close to the same value proposition as he did last off-season. His upside simply hasn’t changed. Do you have to worry about him missing games? You do, but I don’t recall the QB2 market ever being stronger so you can really minimize the risk if Vick does go down. For all of the worry about Vick’s ability to stay healthy, he’s really had but one serious injury in his career. If you can navigate around 1-2 game absences from him, his upside is still Top 3 QB level. But given the increase in overall QB production over the last 2-3 seasons, perhaps he doe not have quite the unique upside he once had. But he still has big time upside.

Vick will always be a polarizing player. I think that’s why his value has gotten as low as it has. If you were to compare Cam Newton & Vick, I’m not sure you could come up with an argument that could persuade me that Newton represents 2 full rounds of value over Vick. To me, it’s a toss-up between the two. I think with the Eagles disappointing last year after visions of ‘dream team’, all Eagles with the exception of McCoy seem to be undervalued. In Vick’s case though, I think the potential is there for him to provide 1st round production. I’ll be targeting him in Round 3 if his current ADP holds.

Prediction: (14 games) 279 Completions, 460 Attempts 3818 Passing Yards, 23 TD’s 13 INT’s: 85 Rushes, 603 Rushing Yards, 5 TD’s.

Vick is a type of QB that I will try and draft in every league. He was grossly overvalued in 2011, but now you can draft him 3 rounds later with his ADP at QB6, which is around the 4th round. He can still dominate. Last year was a anomaly in that Lesean McCoy had a an inordinate amount of 1 yd TD runs. I see Vick picking up a few more rushing TDs this year. Vick can still produce 1st or 2nd round numbers due to his rushing ability as well as he has 3 very good targets in Maclin, Desean Jackson, and Celek. Only negative is his injury history, so if you draft Vick, you need a solid backup. Luckily, there are quite a few good ones in the 12-18 range.

Assuming he plays 16 games

4000 yds passing, 26 TD, 15 Int

575 yds rushing, 6 TD

'TheDirtyWord said:

His upside simply hasn’t changed.

Click to expand...

That's not entirely correct, his legs are 1 year older

'TheDirtyWord said:

For me, Vick presents close to the same value proposition as he did last off-season. His upside simply hasn’t changed. Do you have to worry about him missing games? You do, but I don’t recall the QB2 market ever being stronger so you can really minimize the risk if Vick does go down. For all of the worry about Vick’s ability to stay healthy, he’s really had but one serious injury in his career. If you can navigate around 1-2 game absences from him, his upside is still Top 3 QB level.

Click to expand...

This is right on the Same guy as 2 years ago, with the same coaching staff that made him a passer, not just a running QB with an out of control rocket for an arm. Except now it's not about any dream team.....it's roll up your sleeves and get to work time. I pick at the end of my draft, love getting combo's because big play's mean big points in my league, so I'm hoping for something like Vick/D Jax in the 3rd/4th. Passing: 480 attempts, 310 completions, 64.6%, 3,950 yards, 26 TD's.Rushing: 100 attempts, 7 ypc, 700 yards, 5 TD's

'scrumptrulescent said:

'TheDirtyWord said:

For me, Vick presents close to the same value proposition as he did last off-season. His upside simply hasn’t changed. Do you have to worry about him missing games? You do, but I don’t recall the QB2 market ever being stronger so you can really minimize the risk if Vick does go down. For all of the worry about Vick’s ability to stay healthy, he’s really had but one serious injury in his career. If you can navigate around 1-2 game absences from him, his upside is still Top 3 QB level.

Click to expand...

This is right on the Same guy as 2 years ago, with the same coaching staff that made him a passer, not just a running QB with an out of control rocket for an arm. Except now it's not about any dream team.....it's roll up your sleeves and get to work time. I pick at the end of my draft, love getting combo's because big play's mean big points in my league, so I'm hoping for something like Vick/D Jax in the 3rd/4th. Passing: 480 attempts, 310 completions, 64.6%, 3,950 yards, 26 TD's.Rushing: 100 attempts, 7 ypc, 700 yards, 5 TD's

Click to expand...

65%????????Can't see it. Chop a few % points off that, and a couple hundred yards, and I'd be more comfortable with this prediction. Still a top 3 or 4 QB ppg.

I don't like to predict injuries, but you have to account for them with Vick. So, my projections are assuming he plays all 16 games, but you almost have to get a top-end QB2 to back him up, IMO.

Vick:

500 attempts, 300 completions, 3800 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 625 rushing yards, 4 rush TD. He'll probably throw at least 12 INT, as well, if your league penalizes them.

I have him as QB3. I was surprised to see that both he and Cam were ahead of Brady and Brees, despite the fact that I projected Brees and Brady for between 600-800 more passing yards and 9-14 more passing TDs. Shows how valuable those QBs are in a league that rewards rushing yards and TDs more heavily than passing yards/TDs. Also, when INTs aren't penalized, that increases their value, as well. I would expect Vick to be closer to QB 6-8 in a league that does penalize INTs and/or doesn't value rushing stats more heavily than passing stats.

'renesauz said:

'scrumptrulescent said:

'TheDirtyWord said:

For me, Vick presents close to the same value proposition as he did last off-season. His upside simply hasn’t changed. Do you have to worry about him missing games? You do, but I don’t recall the QB2 market ever being stronger so you can really minimize the risk if Vick does go down. For all of the worry about Vick’s ability to stay healthy, he’s really had but one serious injury in his career. If you can navigate around 1-2 game absences from him, his upside is still Top 3 QB level.

Click to expand...

This is right on the Same guy as 2 years ago, with the same coaching staff that made him a passer, not just a running QB with an out of control rocket for an arm. Except now it's not about any dream team.....it's roll up your sleeves and get to work time. I pick at the end of my draft, love getting combo's because big play's mean big points in my league, so I'm hoping for something like Vick/D Jax in the 3rd/4th. Passing: 480 attempts, 310 completions, 64.6%, 3,950 yards, 26 TD's.Rushing: 100 attempts, 7 ypc, 700 yards, 5 TD's

Click to expand...

65%????????Can't see it. Chop a few % points off that, and a couple hundred yards, and I'd be more comfortable with this prediction. Still a top 3 or 4 QB ppg.

Click to expand...

In 2010 he threw for a 62.6% rate. If you take the amount of attempts I stated, 480, and make it 300 completions instead of 310 it's a 62.5% rate. I'm willing to give him 10 more completions. I think it's going to be a special year.

'scrumptrulescent said:

'renesauz said:

'scrumptrulescent said:

'TheDirtyWord said:

For me, Vick presents close to the same value proposition as he did last off-season. His upside simply hasn’t changed. Do you have to worry about him missing games? You do, but I don’t recall the QB2 market ever being stronger so you can really minimize the risk if Vick does go down. For all of the worry about Vick’s ability to stay healthy, he’s really had but one serious injury in his career. If you can navigate around 1-2 game absences from him, his upside is still Top 3 QB level.

Click to expand...

This is right on the Same guy as 2 years ago, with the same coaching staff that made him a passer, not just a running QB with an out of control rocket for an arm. Except now it's not about any dream team.....it's roll up your sleeves and get to work time. I pick at the end of my draft, love getting combo's because big play's mean big points in my league, so I'm hoping for something like Vick/D Jax in the 3rd/4th. Passing: 480 attempts, 310 completions, 64.6%, 3,950 yards, 26 TD's.Rushing: 100 attempts, 7 ypc, 700 yards, 5 TD's

Click to expand...

65%????????Can't see it. Chop a few % points off that, and a couple hundred yards, and I'd be more comfortable with this prediction. Still a top 3 or 4 QB ppg.

Click to expand...

In 2010 he threw for a 62.6% rate. If you take the amount of attempts I stated, 480, and make it 300 completions instead of 310 it's a 62.5% rate. I'm willing to give him 10 more completions. I think it's going to be a special year.

Click to expand...

I think it is, in general, a mistake to predict a career best statistic from a veteran player when making fantasy predictions. Predicting a career best % from a third year QB is one thing...from a ten year vet is...well...silly would be a GENEROUS term to use.IN the end though...we aren't that far apart on the actual prediction. Chop off 15-20 or so completions and 100-150 yards and I'm on board. (YPA should be high with this receiving corps)

I think Vick's INTs 2 years ago represent his career best, so I have him back to his average in the mid teens as well.

I think Vick's lack of rushing touchdowns had more to do with playcalling than with durability or talent. They didn't call his number near the goal-line very much. However, I don't see that changing this coming year either. I think Andy Reid has adjusted his goal-line plans to attempt to keep Vick healthier. I think that caps his upside significantly.

13 games, 235/400 for 3200 yards 21 Tds 14 INTs; 75 attemps, 575 yards, 2 TDS.

QB7-11 depending on # of games missed

'fatkid said:

I think Vick's lack of rushing touchdowns had more to do with playcalling than with durability or talent. They didn't call his number near the goal-line very much. However, I don't see that changing this coming year either. I think Andy Reid has adjusted his goal-line plans to attempt to keep Vick healthier. I think that caps his upside significantly.

Click to expand...

Agreed...but I also think it had to do with defensive attention. Vick's rushing stats inside the 10 were as follows the last two seasons:2011: 5/-3/02010: 9/25/7What Vick's presence did do was open it up for McCoy who showed a proclivity inside the 10 in terms of conversion that he'd yet to show previously.2011: 31/47/112010: 14/25/2I still think McCoy will garner the lions share of inside the 5-10 looks...but I also think the Eagles will get Vick TD's inside the 5 about 3-4 times and Vick can probably get 1 or 2 TD's from 20 yards and out.

Something to look at with Vick is his rushing attempts.

He said he is going to make an effort to stay healthy this year which may be less running or runnign our of bounds more. In the games he came back after his injury he only ran the ball 2.8 times per game. So you might want to adjust his rushing stats a bit downward.

'swirvenirvin said:

Something to look at with Vick is his rushing attempts.He said he is going to make an effort to stay healthy this year which may be less running or runnign our of bounds more. In the games he came back after his injury he only ran the ball 2.8 times per game. So you might want to adjust his rushing stats a bit downward.

Click to expand...

there was a really good article about how Eagles offensive line coach Howard Mudd has been working with Vick to learn the new blocking schemes... and that after the injury he was far more comfortable reading the protection, who was unblocked etc. http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/163501396.html

I think the full off-season of OTA's and training camp as a starter will really help this year. I think he will put up great numbers, if he is healthy.

The thing about Vick is not really about whether he runs more or less, it is about has he learned how to avoid the big hit. In his two years in Philly, I have never seen a QB

get hit as much and as hard as Vick, both inside and out of the pocket. He is terrible at avoiding the big hit. Whether this is because he never likes to give up on a play, or because

he just does not sense when he is about to get hit, he just takes way too many square shots. Unfortunately, unless he corrects this, he will be a big injury concern. As others have said,

I would pick him up, but get a top back-up.

'renesauz said:

'scrumptrulescent said:

'renesauz said:

'scrumptrulescent said:

'TheDirtyWord said:

For me, Vick presents close to the same value proposition as he did last off-season. His upside simply hasn’t changed. Do you have to worry about him missing games? You do, but I don’t recall the QB2 market ever being stronger so you can really minimize the risk if Vick does go down. For all of the worry about Vick’s ability to stay healthy, he’s really had but one serious injury in his career. If you can navigate around 1-2 game absences from him, his upside is still Top 3 QB level.

Click to expand...

This is right on the Same guy as 2 years ago, with the same coaching staff that made him a passer, not just a running QB with an out of control rocket for an arm. Except now it's not about any dream team.....it's roll up your sleeves and get to work time. I pick at the end of my draft, love getting combo's because big play's mean big points in my league, so I'm hoping for something like Vick/D Jax in the 3rd/4th. Passing: 480 attempts, 310 completions, 64.6%, 3,950 yards, 26 TD's.Rushing: 100 attempts, 7 ypc, 700 yards, 5 TD's

Click to expand...

65%????????Can't see it. Chop a few % points off that, and a couple hundred yards, and I'd be more comfortable with this prediction. Still a top 3 or 4 QB ppg.

Click to expand...

In 2010 he threw for a 62.6% rate. If you take the amount of attempts I stated, 480, and make it 300 completions instead of 310 it's a 62.5% rate. I'm willing to give him 10 more completions. I think it's going to be a special year.

Click to expand...

I think it is, in general, a mistake to predict a career best statistic from a veteran player when making fantasy predictions. Predicting a career best % from a third year QB is one thing...from a ten year vet is...well...silly would be a GENEROUS term to use.IN the end though...we aren't that far apart on the actual prediction. Chop off 15-20 or so completions and 100-150 yards and I'm on board. (YPA should be high with this receiving corps)

Click to expand...

In Vick's case it's not really predicting a career best necessarily. It's obvious Vick is a different player in Philadelphia than he was in Atlanta as evidenced by his passing numbers. It's basically predicting a career best from a third year player, as this will only be his 3rd season playing as the starter in Philadelphia, and first season as the starter with a full training camp.His completion percentage has been 62.6% in 2010 and 59.8% in 2011. YPA of 8.1 and 7.8 in those years respectively as well with per game averages of 251.5 and 254.1 yards. I don't see it as a stretch for Vick to improve on all of those numbers with several positive factors in his favor (full training camp, Maclin and DeSean healthy/interested, etc). I'll go with 63.5% completion percentage, and 8.3 yards per attempt.Vick has averaged 31.8 attempts per game since he's been the starter.Full 16 game projection:508 attempts, 322 completions, 4,216 yards. 24 TDs, 12 INTs. 640 rushing yards, 5 TDs.Per game averages:263.52 passing yards, 1.5 TDs. 40 rushing yards, .31 TDs.14 game projection: 3,689 yards. 21 passing TDs. 560 rushing yards, 4 TDs.Top 3 ppg QB, and top 5 QB overall.

It will be as if Vick has another Pro Bowl-caliber WR at this disposal that he didn't have last year.

'dhockster said:

I think the full off-season of OTA's and training camp as a starter will really help this year. I think he will put up great numbers, if he is healthy.

The thing about Vick is not really about whether he runs more or less, it is about has he learned how to avoid the big hit. In his two years in Philly, I have never seen a QB

get hit as much and as hard as Vick, both inside and out of the pocket. He is terrible at avoiding the big hit. Whether this is because he never likes to give up on a play, or because

he just does not sense when he is about to get hit, he just takes way too many square shots. Unfortunately, unless he corrects this, he will be a big injury concern. As others have said,

I would pick him up, but get a top back-up.

Click to expand...

If you can, take a look at the first sack he took in the Pittsburgh game and that will answer your question. He has pressure coming from the outside and stepped up to run and not to throw...he ended up square to the line of scrimmage and not in a throwing position. At this point in his career I dont think he will ever change. He is what he is and you draft accoringly.

Those taking Vick, how long are you waiting for a backup and who are you targetting?

'rascal said:

Those taking Vick, how long are you waiting for a backup and who are you targetting?

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I took Vick in the 5th. Looking for 2-3 of: Cutler (if QB10-12), Griffin, Freeman and Palmer (if QB12+), Locker, Fitzpatrick, and maybe Tebow. In one league I have Vick and Palmer. In another I have Vick, Locker, and Tebow. Eh.

I didn't see this mentioned. The worst part about starting Vick is that even if you get a solid backup, you'll still only get 1/2 qb production for the games where he's hurt and leaves early. I think I lost 3 games last season because Vick was injured during those games.

'Late225 said:

I didn't see this mentioned. The worst part about starting Vick is that even if you get a solid backup, you'll still only get 1/2 qb production for the games where he's hurt and leaves early. I think I lost 3 games last season because Vick was injured during those games.

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That's actually a very good point.I took Vick in my draft last week and followed up with Cutler in the 10th as the 15th QB off the board and one pick after Matt Flynn. But owning Vick will likely be an emotional roller coaster this season. Exciting to watch, will put up some big games for you. But you'll be holding your breath hoping he doesnt get hurt early in a game and screw you over that week. Aw well, I signed up for it.

'VaTerp said:

'Late225 said:

I didn't see this mentioned. The worst part about starting Vick is that even if you get a solid backup, you'll still only get 1/2 qb production for the games where he's hurt and leaves early. I think I lost 3 games last season because Vick was injured during those games.

Click to expand...

That's actually a very good point.I took Vick in my draft last week and followed up with Cutler in the 10th as the 15th QB off the board and one pick after Matt Flynn. But owning Vick will likely be an emotional roller coaster this season. Exciting to watch, will put up some big games for you. But you'll be holding your breath hoping he doesnt get hurt early in a game and screw you over that week. Aw well, I signed up for it.

Click to expand...

I signed up for it last year. If nothing else, it makes Sundays fun. I think I'm still signing up for it again this year, but others need to be aware of this.

I love Vick in an expensive QBBC.

Vick/Roethlisberger is what I've been looking at.

Vick in the 6th round and RGIII in the 9th. I would have liked to have held off on a backup for a round-or-two more, but 5 minutes after drafting Vick he was knocked out of last Sunday's game and I realized that my need for a good backup was greater than I'd though. Vick and RGIII are a good pairing for a QBBC.

'davidwb said:

Vick in the 6th round and RGIII in the 9th. I would have liked to have held off on a backup for a round-or-two more, but 5 minutes after drafting Vick he was knocked out of last Sunday's game and I realized that my need for a good backup was greater than I'd though. Vick and RGIII are a good pairing for a QBBC.

Click to expand...

this is the right thinking, if you take Vick, just know you have to take your QB2 and even QB3 earlier than normal.There is a price for that nice PPG.

I think the preseasons had by Ryan and Vick will cause Ryan to be taken first, meaning added value for Vick fans like myself.

'Monsters of the Midway said:

I think the preseasons had by Ryan and Vick will cause Ryan to be taken first, meaning added value for Vick fans like myself.

Click to expand...

A league that I recently drafted had Matt Ryan going 25 spots sooner than Vick. Couldn't believe it. Even with injury concerns, Vick is a dynamo when on the field and worth the risk. He dropped to the 6.02 and I took him there. Will be looking at grabbing Locker or RG3 later.I'm not sure that taking Vick really impacts your second QB very much. Even if I drafted Rodgers I would still be looking for an upside QB2 in the 9th/10th. I might have to grab one a round sooner with Vick but you're not losing much value there on the flex/WR4 type guys available.I really was not expecting to take Vick in any drafts this year but if he's sitting there in the 6th round every draft I'm probably going to be picking him up regularly.

Has anyone altered there Vick projections (besides missed games due to injury) as a result of the preseason?

My previous projections for Vick were around 3700 yds / 23 TD's passing and 80+ carries / 550-600 yds / 4 TDs rushing.

I could see legitimately lowering his rushing yds significantly due to more slides and fewer highlight reel scrambles in a conscious effort to avoid injury. Then a corresponsing bump in passing yds/TD's.

I'm thinking a new projection around 3900/25 Tds passing and 50 carries 350 yds / 2 Tds rushing. (normalized to 16 games played)

In a 4-pt TD passing league, this would have a meaningful impact and take him out of the elite category and down to the Romo/Rives/Eli tier.

Without the benefit of rushing yds and rushing TD's, Vick would be mere mortal and currently overvalued. Would like the board's thoughts on how he might alter his game going forward.

I'd be very happy with him in the Eli tier, as I passed on Eli before the turn, letting the guy in position 1 decide my QB basically, as I knew he was going to take 1.. I backed him up with Cutler in the next round to minimize the risk but it has been said you know what you're getting into.

I like that Jackson's head seems to be on straight, and Maclin is healthy. Celek Is a decent te, and McCoy is a very good receiving rb. This could be a decent year if he stays healthy.

I think he will average per game 240 yds passing, close to 2 passing tds, 25 rushing yards, and 0.25 rushing tds.

I play in a league that also has an AP spot where you can play QB/RB/WR.

And your limited to rostering only 3 QB's. (most everyone plays 2 QB's)

I got Brees/Vick/Palmer..

I'm hoping Palmer is enough of a backup for Vick/bye's and or injuries.

I'm projecting: 14 games from Vick..

Passing: 3,700 yards, 24 TD's.

Rushing: 600 yards, 4 TD's.

If Vick gets even close to that production I see great value at his ADP.

Here's to hoping, Any comments on this is appreciated..

'two_dollars said:

I'd be very happy with him in the Eli tier, as I passed on Eli before the turn, letting the guy in position 1 decide my QB basically, as I knew he was going to take 1.. I backed him up with Cutler in the next round to minimize the risk but it has been said you know what you're getting into.

I like that Jackson's head seems to be on straight, and Maclin is healthy. Celek Is a decent te, and McCoy is a very good receiving rb. This could be a decent year if he stays healthy.

I think he will average per game 240 yds passing, close to 2 passing tds, 25 rushing yards, and 0.25 rushing tds.

Click to expand...

Considering as a starter he's never had less than 38 per game, you're a tad low. He's also not the type of qb to average around 2 passing td's per game. He did have 1.75 td's per game in his "magical" 2010, but that is probably his ceiling. Vick is a great risk/reward type of player. Not many, if any, people will get drafted at his spot that can single handedly win you your league if they explode.

This guy is a turnover machine.