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Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Jay Cutler Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

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[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
If you didn't get to see Cutler play last year, his stats don't tell the story. He played really well under a ton of pressure and with absolute garbage at receiver. I think Marshall and Jeffrey make a significant difference for Cutler this year.

550 attempts for 347 completions (63%) 4100 yards, 25 TDs, 15 INTs, 40 - 175 - 1 TD rushing

 
4200 yards 25 td's 16 int's.

Cutler is my nice sleeper to me. Bears defense isn't what it used to be, which will force Cutler to go to the air more often and late into games. On top of the vast upgrade at WR.

 
I think Cutler approaches 30 touchdowns pretty easily this season to be honest. One of the very best values in the NFL frankly at QB. I am putting him in the Top 10 (tail end). Health is a concern.

3900 yards

30 touchdowns

15 picks

Maybe a score or two on the ground.

 
There are definitely good reasons to be bullish on Cutler this year. A significant improvement at WR is a big plus. The departure of Martz and his use of deep drops for QBs is a plus, given the play of the o-line. Yet, that o-line's ability to pass protect still concerns me. I'm sort of torn here. Hmmm...

ETA: The return of Carimi should be a plus as well.

 
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If I'm not mistaken, isn't the QB coach in Chicago the same QB coach Cutler had in Denver? Mike Tice is the OC, and 3/4 years in Minny, he had a top-10 passing offense. The Chicago O-line should be improved, and the receivers are definitely better.

I see Cutler having a good year:

515 attempts, 318 completions, 3900 pass yards, 28 pass TDs, 15 INTs, 100 rushing yards, 1 rush TD.

Despite these good numbers (Cutler's 2nd best season), it's only good for QB16 (no penalty for INTs).

 
I've discussed Cutler in several other threads, and my main concern is his best fantasy year was basically built around throwing the ball A TON. His peripheral numbers have been ok but not great, so even with a known upgrade in Marshall and a perceived yet unknown upgrade in Jeffery, I can't give Cutler a resounding endorsement for vaulting up the QB rankings (especially given the crazy fantasy totals being scored today).

Cutler has had that one year in the fantasy Top 10 (2008) . . . when he passed 616 times and ranked 5th. By comparison, if he were to repeat those numbers (when he played with Marshall), last year he would have ranked as the #9 fantasy QB. However, since coming to CHI, his attempts per game have fallen from 34.7 to 28.8 to 23.2. The Bears have predominently been a defense and ground and pound team. True, the receivers haven't been great, but I would contend that they weren't horrible either. Knox-Bennett-Williams-Hester were at least capable (even though they were not elite).

Marshall should help Cutler's numbers. IMO, Jeffery may at some point evolve into a decent receiver, but I would think as a rookie his numbers will not be eye popping. Considering that the Bears should have a fine tandem in Forte and Bush to pund the ball, I frankly don't see Cutler throwing the ball anywhere near as often as he did in Denver in 2008.

Other than that one year, Cutler's high for passing yards has been 3,666. His career high in TD has been 27. His ypa in 2008 was 7.3, which is exactly what his career ypa is.

Bottom line for me, Cutler may do slightly better this year than his other seasons in CHI, but I still have a hard time seeing a scenario where he would be a starting fantasy QB. I would call him a decent QB2 with some upside if things worked out in his favor, but I don't see 4000 yards or 30+ TDs for Cutler this season. He's still the same guy that had very little time to pass, looked petrified in the pocket at times, and has a history of making poor decisions.

I would go with 3600/22/14 with another 100/1 on the ground. That includes 15 games for Cutler (misses a half a game a couple times) and assumes Marshall buys in and doesn't self-destruct.

 
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I've discussed Cutler in several other threads, and my main concern is his best fantasy year was basically built around throwing the ball A TON. His peripheral numbers have been ok but not great, so even with a known upgrade in Marshall and a perceived yet unknown upgrade in Jeffery, I can't give Cutler a resounding endorsement for vaulting up the QB rankings (especially given the crazy fantasy totals being scored today).

Cutler has had that one year in the fantasy Top 10 (2008) . . . when he passed 616 times and ranked 5th. By comparison, if he were to repeat those numbers (when he played with Marshall), last year he would have ranked as the #9 fantasy QB. However, since coming to CHI, his attempts per game have fallen from 34.7 to 28.8 to 23.2. The Bears have predominently been a defense and ground and pound team. True, the receivers haven't been great, but I would contend that they weren't horrible either. Knox-Bennett-Williams-Hester were at least capable (even though they were not elite).

Marshall should help Cutler's numbers. IMO, Jeffery may at some point evolve into a decent receiver, but I would think as a rookie his numbers will not be eye popping. Considering that the Bears should have a fine tandem in Forte and Bush to pund the ball, I frankly don't see Cutler throwing the ball anywhere near as often as he did in Denver in 2008.

Other than that one year, Cutler's high for passing yards has been 3,666. His career high in TD has been 27. His ypa in 2008 was 7.3, which is exactly what his career ypa is.

Bottom line for me, Cutler may do slightly better this year than his other seasons in CHI, but I still have a hard time seeing a scenario where he would be a starting fantasy QB. I would call him a decent QB2 with some upside if things worked out in his favor, but I don't see 4000 yards or 30+ TDs for Cutler this season. He's still the same guy that had very little time to pass, looked petrified in the pocket at times, and has a history of making pooe decisions.

I would go with 3600/22/14 with another 100/1 on the ground. That includes 15 games for Cutler (misses a half a game a couple times) and assumes Marshall buys in and doesn't self-destruct.
I don't watch every New England Patriots game, so it's difficult for me to comment on WRs in that offense. But stating that Hester-Bennett-Knox-Williams-Hurd-etc aren't horrible is ignorance.Exhibit A:

INT #1) Throw a bit inside, Hall gambles. Hester probably doesn't run a great route either.

INT #2) Knox isn't aggressive, doesn't fight or even go towards the football.

INT #3) Knox isn't aggressive, doesn't fight and gets out-muscled for the football.

INT #4) It's late in the game and Cutler tries to make a play. Looks like Knox doesn't give full effort again.

I can't tell you how many times WRs got bumped off of routes, stopped running routes, out-muscled, or even fell down. Has Cutler made bad decisions? Yes. But it's far from all his fault.

The second bolded section also shows how little of Chicago football you watch. Cutler was amazing in the pocket last season. He made plays in the pocket avoiding the rush and throwing incompletions instead of sacks. He also has improved his mechanics and decision making.

Red zone:

2011= 8 TD 0 INT

2010= 15 TD 3 INT

Cutler had his best season in Chicago last year. Now that he improved himself + adding weapons + getting rid of Martz = Better numbers for Cutler

 
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Cutler had his best season in Chicago last year. Now that he improved himself + adding weapons + getting rid of Martz = Better numbers for Cutler
I openly admit to not watching CHI very often because they rarely are on for me to watch. Maybe it's when I do see him play it's not a stellar performance.Last year, I saw the game against DET (9-19-123-0-0). In 2010, I remember watching 3 games: NYG (8-11-42-0-1), NE (12-26-152-0-2), and the playoff game against GB (6-14-80-0-1). None of those were very good games for Cutler. Maybe I miss his great games.Maybe Cutler had his best season overall in CHI last year, but he was not as good fantasy wise (which is all that we really are interested in).And what was really better statistically for Cutler? He had his lowest completion% while in CHI, his ypa and TD% were better the season before, his passer rating was beeter in 2010. He threw for a lower % og INT and a few more yards per game, but I don't see productivity wise where he was much different than normal.I also don't see where Martz leaving is a plus for the offense. Every other step of the way, Martz made great leaps in passing (and fantasy) numbers. I still think Cutler will have to pass A LOT to have a noticable fantasy impact this year . . . and I still think the Bears will run a great deal of the time.I agree Cutler should do better . . . but better for Cutler does not automatically mean another trip to the Top 5 fantasy QBs.
 
Cutler had his best season in Chicago last year. Now that he improved himself + adding weapons + getting rid of Martz = Better numbers for Cutler
I openly admit to not watching CHI very often because they rarely are on for me to watch. Maybe it's when I do see him play it's not a stellar performance.Last year, I saw the game against DET (9-19-123-0-0). In 2010, I remember watching 3 games: NYG (8-11-42-0-1), NE (12-26-152-0-2), and the playoff game against GB (6-14-80-0-1). None of those were very good games for Cutler. Maybe I miss his great games.Maybe Cutler had his best season overall in CHI last year, but he was not as good fantasy wise (which is all that we really are interested in).And what was really better statistically for Cutler? He had his lowest completion% while in CHI, his ypa and TD% were better the season before, his passer rating was beeter in 2010. He threw for a lower % og INT and a few more yards per game, but I don't see productivity wise where he was much different than normal.I also don't see where Martz leaving is a plus for the offense. Every other step of the way, Martz made great leaps in passing (and fantasy) numbers. I still think Cutler will have to pass A LOT to have a noticable fantasy impact this year . . . and I still think the Bears will run a great deal of the time.I agree Cutler should do better . . . but better for Cutler does not automatically mean another trip to the Top 5 fantasy QBs.
Yes those were his worst games the past couple of years. He was injured in two of them...concussion, torn knee. He played bad against NE, but the entire Chicago team played poorly(Forte, defense, Cutler, etc). The Detroit game had Chicago up 20-0 a minute into the second quarter...if you're holding that game against Cutler are you holding it more against Stafford? 4 INT's...46.3 QB rating...2 pick 6's...throwing a player to the ground by the facemask...etc.All of the numbers you're posting are with one of the worst WR groups in the league. Of course you're TD/INT ratio isn't good with Devin Hester falling down, Johnny Knox not going after passes, and Roy Williams dropping. Whether you think Alshon Jeffery is going to have an impact or not...he's better than a 5th round pick from Albine Christian, a washout(Roy Williams), a returner trying to play WR. I don't see how that isn't obvious. Jeffery put up numbers in the best conference in college football. If he's even an average NFL WR, it will be an upgrade...plus he has the size and aggressive play to get the ball(think redzone here).You think the numbers are about the same as his career, maybe a little improved...I don't. I think a Pro Bowl WR and an all-american SEC WR will improve things greatly. Nobody said anything about top 5 NFL QB. However, given the change of rules that aid the passing game...is it possible we don't know the limit of what Cutler can do with actually WR's?
 
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I like Jay Cutler this year. He gets his boy Marshall back. Forte will still be a force receiving out of the backfield. CHI's running game should be very solid which should help Cutler stay upright for 16 games. Having the Pack and Lions 2x will make the Bears have to score a ton to win. Nice value in the middle rounds and a solid option to pair with someone like Carson Palmer or Matt Schaub or Andy Dalton as a QBBC.

3950 pass yds, 27 TD, 15 Int

 
Suffice it to say that new GM Phil Emery, and the Bears, are going in a new philosophical direction.

In the pass-friendly 21st Century National Football League, defense and a running game are NOT the keys to building a Super Bowl Champion. Emery didn't spend a 2nd and 4th round pick on receiving targets, and also sign Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush as FAs, just so that Cutler could "manage games" for a "ground and pound" offense.

In relatively short order, Emery has surrounded Cutler with legitimate offensive skill position players for the first time in Chicago. Certainly the RBs will get plenty of rushing opportunities, but Forte and Bush are also good receivers to go along with vastly improved WRs, and even a new TE acquired this off-season. Last season's top Bear WRs had 37 receptions (Knox & WIlliams tied); this season Marshall will likely beat that total by about 60+ receptions all by himself!

Alshon Jeffery is also a 1st round talent with the size and catching ability to create serious mismatches across from Marshall. Even Devin Hester should enjoy single coverage and opportunities to regularly stretch defenses, now that Marshall will be drawing the opposing defense's top cover men and schemes. Combine that with two talented pass catching RBs out of the backfield and Chicago's offense is poised to put up some surprising stats moving forward

The Bears also play in a division with high octane offenses, and the defense is VERY long in the tooth. This will NOT be a Bears offense that can get through the 2012 season winning ugly by scoring a TD or two per game, and hoping that the D can hold on to the lead. Get ready for a few shoot-outs.

I predict one of the biggest stories during the upcoming season will be the surprising emergence of a highly productive offense in the Windy City; something that is pretty much unheard of in modern Bears' history. I know many will never believe it until they see Cutler put up a couple of 4000+ yd seasons back-to-back, but the handwriting is on the wall for those willing to read it.

It will honestly shock me if Cutler fails to throw for over 4000 yds in 2012...

333/530 4134PYds 7.8YPA 32TDs 15INTs 150 RuYds 1TD

 
Suffice it to say that new GM Phil Emery, and the Bears, are going in a new philosophical direction. In the pass-friendly 21st Century National Football League, defense and a running game are NOT the keys to building a Super Bowl Champion. Emery didn't spend a 2nd and 4th round pick on receiving targets, and also sign Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush as FAs, just so that Cutler could "manage games" for a "ground and pound" offense. In relatively short order, Emery has surrounded Cutler with legitimate offensive skill position players for the first time in Chicago. Certainly the RBs will get plenty of rushing opportunities, but Forte and Bush are also good receivers to go along with vastly improved WRs, and even a new TE acquired this off-season. Last season's top Bear WRs had 37 receptions (Knox & WIlliams tied); this season Marshall will likely beat that total by about 60+ receptions all by himself!Alshon Jeffery is also a 1st round talent with the size and catching ability to create serious mismatches across from Marshall. Even Devin Hester should enjoy single coverage and opportunities to regularly stretch defenses, now that Marshall will be drawing the opposing defense's top cover men and schemes. Combine that with two talented pass catching RBs out of the backfield and Chicago's offense is poised to put up some surprising stats moving forwardThe Bears also play in a division with high octane offenses, and the defense is VERY long in the tooth. This will NOT be a Bears offense that can get through the 2012 season winning ugly by scoring a TD or two per game, and hoping that the D can hold on to the lead. Get ready for a few shoot-outs.I predict one of the biggest stories during the upcoming season will be the surprising emergence of a highly productive offense in the Windy City; something that is pretty much unheard of in modern Bears' history. I know many will never believe it until they see Cutler put up a couple of 4000+ yd seasons back-to-back, but the handwriting is on the wall for those willing to read it.It will honestly shock me if Cutler fails to throw for over 4000 yds in 2012...333/530 4134PYds 7.8YPA 32TDs 15INTs 150 RuYds 1TD
Great posting! My proj. for Cutler are almost identical with him having closer to 4500 PYds.
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.

 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)My expectations in Cutler for 2012:-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season. -62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INTCutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 InterceptionsThat would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
Good posting. I appreciate your mining the data of Mike Tice's tendencies. Your assumptions all make sense to me.
 
It’s tough to be sold on Jay Cutler. It seems like he’s carrying around the stigma for not really having lived up to expectations since he was traded to CHI despite having lead the Bears to an NFC title game appearance and playing pretty decent football the last couple of years. But what he hasn’t been is prolific, and to be fair, while that really hasn’t been his fault as much as it’s been about the Bears and how they’ve been built, as it relates to FF…it seems like he simply doesn’t have a QB1 ceiling at all.

For one, Cutler WR’s have largely stunk since his arrival. Secondly, his offensive line has struggled to protect him. I’m framing that comment gently. Those two things will make it difficult for any QB to find success yet Cutler to his credit has persevered. For as much bad publicity as he got in 2009 for not being the second coming and in 2010 for not coming back into the NFC title game, it appears that a lot of that has washed over.

Is this the year that Cutler puts it all together and becomes the perennial QB1 everyone thought he was on pace to become after the 2008 season? I just don’t see it.

Think about this – are the chances Jake Locker becomes a QB1 as good as Jay Cutler’s? What about RGIII? Andrew Luck? Maybe not in 2012…but I feel like there is potential with other QB’s based on skillset and situation to ascend up the QB hierarchy whereas with Cutler, I simply see his top line production potential to be QB14-15…and that’s top line.

Even with Brandon Marshall, the Bears group of WR’s as it stands now is average at best (a cursory count has me taking at least 14 other groups of WR’s ahead of the Bears collection). Alshon Jeffrey might turn into a player, but the buzz around him as it relates to his 2012 contribution seems a bit too intense for my liking. Can he really be a consistent compliment in a prolific passing attack this season? I’d hedge my bets toward no. Hester/Bennett seem now to be in roles better suited for their skillset/talents, but I think they’ll see fewer targets now and they’ve not been very productively efficient producers previously.

I agree with Yudkin’s sentiment above in terms of Cutler’s ceiling. The top tier of QB’s in todays NFL (and FF) either have to have a) an 8.0 YPA at least or b) an offense that throws the ball a minimum of 575 times/season. Is Cutler that guy or is his situation going to yield that?

Right now, Cutler is going QB14…right behind Big Ben and ahead of Matt Schaub. That feels overvalued to me. The analysis done on Mike Tice offenses above only makes passing mention of the fact that in 3 of those 4 seasons, Randy Moss was to the NFL what Calvin Johnson is now. The single most dominant WR in football without so much as a close peer. And the RB’s on those teams? Moe Williams, Michael Bennett, the Whizzenator. Michael Bennett had his one spectacular year in 2002, but the Bears ability to put Forte/Bush out there is IMO going to curb the Bears/Tice’s reliance on the passing game. That and their ability to protect Cutler which is still suspect.

And so at the end of the day, I think the Bears are going to be a very good football team, but also one that reaches its success in a more deliberate manner than on the arm of Jay Cutler.

Prediction: 313 Completions, 521 Attempts, 3840 Passing Yards, 25 TD’s 16 INT’s; 28 Rushes, 87 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)My expectations in Cutler for 2012:-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season. -62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INTCutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 InterceptionsThat would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
Good posting. I appreciate your mining the data of Mike Tice's tendencies. Your assumptions all make sense to me.
Agreed. Aside from the TD number, I feel pretty good about that projection. 30 TD wouldn't surprise me, though.I'll go with 540 att x 7.5 = 4050/27/15
 
Qb Jay Cutler in Chicago isn't the same Qb that was playing in Denver. The Bears aren't going to throw the ball nearly as much as Denver did back then and those that draft Cutler in hopes of a sleeper candidate due to Marshall joining the team will be disappointed. I think Cutler is one of those Qbs who are actually a better real life Qb than a fantasy Qb, at least in his current situation.

3550 yards, 25 td's and 18 Ints

100 yards rushing and 1td

 
Curious whether anyone has additional thoughts on Cutler now that the preseason games have pretty much completed. It appears Jeffery is a valid option and the Marshall connection has not lost a beat. It also appears the passing game that Tice will be implementing will result in more attempts for Cutler this year.

Anyone else have adjusted numbers for Cutler?

 
Curious whether anyone has additional thoughts on Cutler now that the preseason games have pretty much completed. It appears Jeffery is a valid option and the Marshall connection has not lost a beat. It also appears the passing game that Tice will be implementing will result in more attempts for Cutler this year.Anyone else have adjusted numbers for Cutler?
Personally, I bumped him up from 15 to around 10 . . . but the scoring difference in the bottom QB1 to top QB2 scoring bandwidth is pretty close. I am always leary of reacting to preseason games, as those are far from real game scenarios.
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues

 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
Did you need to respond? I acknowledged it was early. Simply thought it would be nice to see what he's on pace for the season. Particularly in attempts/completions.Your hate for Jay Cutler is very well noted

 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
Did you need to respond? I acknowledged it was early. Simply thought it would be nice to see what he's on pace for the season. Particularly in attempts/completions.Your hate for Jay Cutler is very well noted
I don't hate Cutler, and my response at this point for any player or thread has been the same. Whether someone had a great week, an average week, or a terrible week . . . it's been only one game.If it makes you feel better, I would project Cutler's numbers higher than I would have before, but I still am not ready to project him to Top 5 and elite numbers. For me, he's gone from Top 15 to Top 10 and maybe Top 8, but there is still a lot of ground to cover with each subsequent spot.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
Did you need to respond? I acknowledged it was early. Simply thought it would be nice to see what he's on pace for the season. Particularly in attempts/completions.Your hate for Jay Cutler is very well noted
I thought your post was a self serving pat on the back. You have a right to do that, but then flaming someone for their own response is just not cricket.
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
Did you need to respond? I acknowledged it was early. Simply thought it would be nice to see what he's on pace for the season. Particularly in attempts/completions.Your hate for Jay Cutler is very well noted
I thought your post was a self serving pat on the back. You have a right to do that, but then flaming someone for their own response is just not cricket.
You two should get a room
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
Did you need to respond? I acknowledged it was early. Simply thought it would be nice to see what he's on pace for the season. Particularly in attempts/completions.Your hate for Jay Cutler is very well noted
I thought your post was a self serving pat on the back. You have a right to do that, but then flaming someone for their own response is just not cricket.
That's flaming? You must be new to the SP. David has been very critical Cutler in the offseason and was the first to respond to my post...yet i'm getting lynched. :thumbdown:
 
That's flaming? You must be new to the SP. David has been very critical Cutler in the offseason and was the first to respond to my post...yet i'm getting lynched. :thumbdown:
It's all good, bro. I wasn't getting on you. You've added a lot to this thread. Just because I don't agree with someone doesn't mean I am ragging on some one. As I mentioned above, no matter who the poster is or who the player in question is, at this stage, it's been one game. So my comments are uniformly being doled out to a lot of people, not just you.Just like all the QB strategy threads and people wanting to check in on how people's QBBCs are going. If you rostered and played some of the non-elite QBs, you did well . . . AFTER ONE WEEK. If you drafted some of the early round RBs, you also did well . . . but they did not dominate like they did many weeks last year. Either way, it's been one week of football.I would have taken the same wait and see approach whether Cutler threw for 50 yards or 500 yards. Either way, the sample size is wafer thin. My take away from Cutler from this past week is trending up. I liked what I saw, and if he keeps it up I would project him even higher.Bottom line, no harm, no foul.
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
He did well Week 1 . . . but it's still just one game. Sanchez looked awesome too.
Did you need to respond? I acknowledged it was early. Simply thought it would be nice to see what he's on pace for the season. Particularly in attempts/completions.Your hate for Jay Cutler is very well noted
Dude...
 
(copied from another thread, but felt it should be in here as well)

My expectations in Cutler for 2012:

-Looking through the numbers, Mike Tice throws the football. Over 510 attempts every season he was a HC, even when Brad Johnson had to start 9 games and they didn't have Randy Moss.

I will go between the numbers a bit and shoot for 540 attempts for Cutler. That's not as high as Tice had in Minnesota or as high as Cutler's first year in Chicago under Ron Turner. Heck Cutler was on pace for over 500 attempts last season.

-62% would be a slight uptick from his stint in Chicago. However, it would go right in line with where he was in Denver. 62%=335 completions

-7.5 Yards per Attempt is Cutler's average the last two years. That would calculate into 4050 yards. 12.6 yard per completion has been his average the last two years in Chicago as well. That would calculate into 4221. Both of those would be without including his upgrade at WR. Mike Tice's 2003/2004 Vikings averaged 8.15 Yards per attempt(7.1 in 2002 Culpeppers first full year starting). At 8.15 X 540= 4,401 yards. Lets not include the upgrade at WR and shoot for a 4,200 yards.

-Touchdowns. Cutler's Touchdown percentage in Chicago is 4.8% X 540= 26 touchdowns. With Marshall 6'4, Jeffery 6'3 this number will increase. Lets only increase it by 4.

-Interceptions. Cutler's Interception percentage in Chicago the last two years is 2.9% X 540 attempts = 16 INT

Cutler 335/540 62% 4,200 yards 30 Touchdowns 16 Interceptions

That would've put him at 7th in the NFL in passing yards, 6th in touchdown passes. Probably good for QB7-9 last year in most formats.
It's early, but thought it was interesting how close some of my numbers were.Cutler is on pace for: 336/560 60% 5,328 yards 32 TD 16 INT

Very close to my prediction, outside of yardage being up.

QB7 right now in most FF leagues
You bumped this to give yourself a high-five for projecting some pretty safe statistics. You deserve whatever you get and more.

 

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