Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Vernon Davis Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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Beefcake.

75 / 980 / 10 TDs

despite the glut of wrs, te is the slot alex will be looking at....

1050 yds

10 tds

81 catches

I think you guys are overshooting here. The 49ers have added many parts to their offense and it's inevitable that some of Vernon's balls will go to other guys. Vernon is an excellent blocker, and it would be foolish of the 49ers not to take advantage of this and utilize the receiving talents that they now have that they didn't before.

70/835/7

My first inclination when considering Davis’ outlook was to be pessimistic. After all, despite a legitimate career resurgence, Alex Smith averaged less than 200 yards/game in 2011. Couple that with the fact that the receiving corps added two legitimate weapons in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham – not to mention a quiet mini-breakthrough season from Michael Crabtree…and it would seem that SF would not be a place to go for passing game production. If you add in 1st round pick A.J. Jenkins…that’s even more support.

But it did get me to thinking. Harbaugh, prior to joining SF, built his major D-1 career essentially on the back on Andrew Luck. Stanford, a mere afterthought, in the Pac-10 (12 now), became a powerful force in a conference that boasted more athletically focused institutions like USC & Orregon. This off-season…the appearance was that Harbaugh made a strong play for Peyton Manning. And even in missing out…the QB he does have really came along in a big way in 2011. Smith had some big moments – none bigger than when he went toe-to-toe with Drew Brees and came out on top. That was, and remains, a performance that QB reputations and respect get built on.

So When you go back and look at SF last year, what you see is that Smith was not asked to put the ball in the air much; he averaged 27.8 pass attempts/game. Was this due to Smith alone, and the 49ers desire to not rely on his arm for offensive success? The 3rd leading receiver for SF in 2011 was Kyle Williams, a 2nd year player who was a 6th round selection in 2010. The expected veteran presence at WR they’d hoped to reap last year in Braylon Edwards never materialized. So for the most part – Smith had but 1 WR target he could rely on…and Davis.

My point is that it was justifiable that SF’s passing numbers were so low, but that may have been more a function of the assets around Smith versus Smith himself. The fact is that Smith threw but 5 INT’s in 445 pass attempts yet was able to produce a respectable 7.1 YPA. So with improved weapons around Smith – a seeming forthcoming reduction on the 49ers reliance on Frank Gore to be their bellcow, perhaps Alex Smith is on the cusp of a true FF breakthrough? Cause IMO, that is the one factor keeping folks from jumping on Davis' bandwagon.

Davis beasted in his two playoff games. He was literally unstoppable. With a significant upgrade in talent around him, teams that focus on stopping Davis will be more likely to pay a price for that than they would have been last year. With that said, Davis’s skillset is so immense that even significant defensive attention may not be enough to limit his production. But I may be swimming against the current here a bit in thinking that the SF passing game is about to blossom in 2012 and Davis will be a primary beneficiary of that. However, he won’t be putting up Gronkowski/Graham numbers because Smith isn’t moving up into the 5000 category. But threatening the 4000 level is certainly within the realm of reason. And as SF’s offense stabilized in 2011, their reliance on Davis in the passing game grew. Taking into account all 18 games, Davis’s targets/game increased from 4.7 during the first half of the season to 7.6 during its second half. At 7 targets/game with a catch rate of around 70% - that’s 78 receptions and I suspect that is certainly within Davis’s grasp.

Prediction: 80 Receptions; 1096 Receiving Yards, 9 TD’s.

Defense is too good.

Too many other receiving options now.

QB still a major question mark.

71/800/7

Davis is still developing as a receiver, and once he figured out the offense last year, he was dominant down the stretch. I think it is likely he exceeds last year's numbers. He may be available at a discount as people overrate the receiving talent SF brought in this offseason.

Last year Davis only had 67-792-6.

But in 2 playoff games he had 10-292-4.

Everything about Davis' draft stock and fantasy value I will wait to see Alex Smith in the preseason, with his second year with Harbaugh, before applying.

I dont trust Alex at all, but its hard to deny the change in the entire 49er team and particularly Smiths improved play in the playoffs.

75-850-7 seems about right for now.

I would like to get Vernon after the big 2 go, but it all rides on Alex Smith, can he produce again at least as well as last year?

I like Davis more than others in dynasty format. Top 3 in my box, but big drop off from 2 to 3.

I'd say 70+ catches, nearly 800 yards and 8 TDs

Same here ... he fell way too low in my dynasty drafts this year. I snatch him up in the late 6th both times.

'thecatch said:

Davis is still developing as a receiver, and once he figured out the offense last year, he was dominant down the stretch. I think it is likely he exceeds last year's numbers. He may be available at a discount as people overrate the receiving talent SF brought in this offseason.

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The receiving talent the Niners brought in is leagues better than what they had last year. They also added a buttload of running backs which indicates they're still committing to the run. Last year in the playoffs, Davis had good numbers because Smith had no one else to throw to. The receivers were that pathetic. Don't get me wrong, Davis is a great receiver, but he's also a great blocker. Since they upgraded their other receiving options, it makes sense that the Niners would take advantage of Davis' blocking abilities while their upgraded receivers get the targets.He'll still put up good numbers based solely on his talent, but those projecting 1,000+ yards are in for disappointment.

Got burned on Davis last year, and not eager to get back on the train. I can't make a good case for him as TE4 in the 5th/6th round, where he currently resides.

1. 49ers are abysmal in the red zone. They have room to improve, but their defense is good enough that they can play very conservative on the opponent's side of the field and still win.

2. Davis is a phenomenal blocker and deployed that way often, sometimes more or less for an entire game. Too many Sundays with 2-3 total targets. If you have him going on a day the 9ers decide to run all day and happily punt from the 45, you're in trouble.

Bottom line: his year end stats will look pretty good--I'm sure he'll grade out in the top 10 TE scorers--but his game to game volatility is too dangerous for his draft price.

This is one of those situations where I was surprised to learn his actual stats from 2011, because his playoff performance was so memorable. To put Vernon Davis' numbers into perspective, he produced about the same regular season fantasy points as Dustin Keller.

'butcher boy said:

'thecatch said:

Davis is still developing as a receiver, and once he figured out the offense last year, he was dominant down the stretch. I think it is likely he exceeds last year's numbers. He may be available at a discount as people overrate the receiving talent SF brought in this offseason.

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The receiving talent the Niners brought in is leagues better than what they had last year. They also added a buttload of running backs which indicates they're still committing to the run. Last year in the playoffs, Davis had good numbers because Smith had no one else to throw to. The receivers were that pathetic.

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The WRs were terrible last year, but they aren't going to be great this year. Manningham is not an upgrade on Morgan (who, despite his injury last year, spent several years not eating into Davis's numbers), they can't count on anything from Moss, and they have a first round pick who is not blowing anyone away in mini camp. Are they better? Yes, certainly. But it's an average at best WR corps with the potential for slightly above average.

The most critical point for the SF passing game is significant improvement on 3rd downs & in the Redzone otherwise Davis' numbers may mirror last year. Even with Moss,Manningham & Jenkins those two areas I mentioned MUST improve or they will have trouble if they make the playoffs. Harbaugh has given Smith a year to settle in so he may loosen the reins a bit and see how he does. I think you will see an uptick in passing attempts to try and keep Gore healthy. They have players now to accomplish that. Are the 49ers gonna be a passing team all year? No, but Harbaugh is gonna increase the passing game in an effort to put points on the board. They're not going to be able to put up 21 points all the time and win. If they can start scoring better that'll help the defense which is already pretty good. Given all that I don't think Davis' numbers is gonna take a big jump but he is too talented to ignore. I'd say he finishes around 72-78 catches/875-950yds/8-9 TD's.

I think everyone likes him a bit more than I do for 2012. People tend to apply postseason dominance over to the next year and I don't. Also the added weapons can't help. Plus I think that Alex Smith is not good at the game of football, though you can argue that has been constant in the past

'SexyRexy said:

People tend to apply postseason dominance over to the next year

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It just gets mulched into the stats as an extra regular season game or two, then averaged out, for me.

'BigSteelThrill said:

'SexyRexy said:

People tend to apply postseason dominance over to the next year

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It just gets mulched into the stats as an extra regular season game or two, then averaged out, for me.

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That is a smart way to do it

I'm hoping I'm wrong and Davis puts up good numbers because even with Smith I still think he's a top 5 TE hands down. Yet with the additions of Moss,Manningham, Jenkings and Crabtree still there that may be too many mouths to feed. Manningham and Jenkins aren't going to command a lot of targets but if Crabby,Moss & Davis aren't getting the ball geez I'd hate to think of those 3 attitudes blowing up at the same time. On the other hand if they realize it's a team sport,work together and strive to reach their goal, which is the superbowl, then things should be ok. Moss may realize this is probably his last shot at a SB ring so hopefully that'll inspire him and hold him in check. Still, with all these guys I think Davis ends up with the best numbers but we need to put points on the board if we're gonna sniff the SB.

'Ghost of Bill Walsh said:

The most critical point for the SF passing game is significant improvement on 3rd downs & in the Redzone otherwise Davis' numbers may mirror last year. Even with Moss,Manningham & Jenkins those two areas I mentioned MUST improve or they will have trouble if they make the playoffs. Harbaugh has given Smith a year to settle in so he may loosen the reins a bit and see how he does. I think you will see an uptick in passing attempts to try and keep Gore healthy. They have players now to accomplish that. Are the 49ers gonna be a passing team all year? No, but Harbaugh is gonna increase the passing game in an effort to put points on the board. They're not going to be able to put up 21 points all the time and win. If they can start scoring better that'll help the defense which is already pretty good. Given all that I don't think Davis' numbers is gonna take a big jump but he is too talented to ignore. I'd say he finishes around 72-78 catches/875-950yds/8-9 TD's.

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SF's passing game was anemic in 2011. At the same time, when it made plays the impact was great in the outcome of winning games. You know how you go 13-3 on poor 3rd down and in the RZ? Take a +28 TO ratio, ST's that's shrink the End Zones 30 yards less, and you have a shot winning games. The only real receiving threat for the 49ers id Vernon. Look how long Davis has been with the team, and looks at how long he has had Smith as starter in how many games. I dunno if you can bet Smith is gonna have a fast rapport with the other receivers (Crabs has made a lot of bad Smith throws into completions, yet is a #2 WR IMO, and is the closest to Smith to Vernon as far as QB to Target other than dumpoff or RB), that's a total unknown really, like how Smith would adapt to a Moss. Where is the Vernon baseline? In Jimmy Raye's 2009 offense?

'Matt Bitonti said:

This is one of those situations where I was surprised to learn his actual stats from 2011, because his playoff performance was so memorable. To put Vernon Davis' numbers into perspective, he produced about the same regular season fantasy points as Dustin Keller.

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True. However, I think there are a ot of situations over the years where FF players go back and look at end-of-season trends and notice that there is a point where things start to "click" for players and then they continue to produce the following year.Davis may be this type of player. Niners fans would know better than me, but, from my perspective in the peanut gallery, looking in, it seemed like a light bulb went off late in the year and maybe that is a sign of things to come. If nothing else, Davis played so well in the playoffs that I believe it forces the coaching staff to at least look at that and ask themselves "Is this something we can capitalize on going forward?" I am overall optimistic that he improves overall and becomes more consistent. Looking back, I can see the parallels; I can see looking at a guy like Jimmy graham, Calvin johnson, Dwayne Bowe, etc, etc, and saying "There was a point where you knew "this" might be the point where they turned the corner.

Davis proved his worth last year in the playoffs. He is one of the core reasons why SF went as far as they did last year and he won't just drop off the face of the Earth because some supposed new talent is in town. I think Davis is in for a solid season and will mesh with the offense right from the beginning.

75 receptions 840 yards and 8 tds

'TheDirtyWord said:

My first inclination when considering Davis’ outlook was to be pessimistic. After all, despite a legitimate career resurgence, Alex Smith averaged less than 200 yards/game in 2011. Couple that with the fact that the receiving corps added two legitimate weapons in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham – not to mention a quiet mini-breakthrough season from Michael Crabtree…and it would seem that SF would not be a place to go for passing game production. If you add in 1st round pick A.J. Jenkins…that’s even more support.

But it did get me to thinking. Harbaugh, prior to joining SF, built his major D-1 career essentially on the back on Andrew Luck. Stanford, a mere afterthought, in the Pac-10 (12 now), became a powerful force in a conference that boasted more athletically focused institutions like USC & Orregon. This off-season…the appearance was that Harbaugh made a strong play for Peyton Manning. And even in missing out…the QB he does have really came along in a big way in 2011. Smith had some big moments – none bigger than when he went toe-to-toe with Drew Brees and came out on top. That was, and remains, a performance that QB reputations and respect get built on.

So When you go back and look at SF last year, what you see is that Smith was not asked to put the ball in the air much; he averaged 27.8 pass attempts/game. Was this due to Smith alone, and the 49ers desire to not rely on his arm for offensive success? The 3rd leading receiver for SF in 2011 was Kyle Williams, a 2nd year player who was a 6th round selection in 2010. The expected veteran presence at WR they’d hoped to reap last year in Braylon Edwards never materialized. So for the most part – Smith had but 1 WR target he could rely on…and Davis.

My point is that it was justifiable that SF’s passing numbers were so low, but that may have been more a function of the assets around Smith versus Smith himself. The fact is that Smith threw but 5 INT’s in 445 pass attempts yet was able to produce a respectable 7.1 YPA. So with improved weapons around Smith – a seeming forthcoming reduction on the 49ers reliance on Frank Gore to be their bellcow, perhaps Alex Smith is on the cusp of a true FF breakthrough? Cause IMO, that is the one factor keeping folks from jumping on Davis' bandwagon.

Davis beasted in his two playoff games. He was literally unstoppable. With a significant upgrade in talent around him, teams that focus on stopping Davis will be more likely to pay a price for that than they would have been last year. With that said, Davis’s skillset is so immense that even significant defensive attention may not be enough to limit his production. But I may be swimming against the current here a bit in thinking that the SF passing game is about to blossom in 2012 and Davis will be a primary beneficiary of that. However, he won’t be putting up Gronkowski/Graham numbers because Smith isn’t moving up into the 5000 category. But threatening the 4000 level is certainly within the realm of reason. And as SF’s offense stabilized in 2011, their reliance on Davis in the passing game grew. Taking into account all 18 games, Davis’s targets/game increased from 4.7 during the first half of the season to 7.6 during its second half. At 7 targets/game with a catch rate of around 70% - that’s 78 receptions and I suspect that is certainly within Davis’s grasp.

Prediction: 80 Receptions; 1096 Receiving Yards, 9 TD’s.

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Your first inclincation was right. I would like to call into question the bolded portion. Did Harbaugh build his career on the back of Andrew Luck? In 2011, with the best QB in college football, Harbaugh ran the ball 39.8 times per game while throwing the ball 32.1 times per game (Luck had only 404 attempts in 13 games). In 2010, the year in which Luck could've left college and been the #1 draft pick, Harbaugh ran the ball 41.2 times per game while throwing the ball only 29.2 times per game.So now, instead of the best QB in the league in which he is coaching, Harbaugh has Alex Smith. I'm not going to rip Smith, but he's a far cry from the best in the league. Harbaugh has a defense and a running game that can get it done so I don't see why he'd air it out more than he has to if he hasn't shown any inclination to do that before. And now that they've added some serious targets to their WR corps, I don't see how Vernon Davis will get a bigger piece of that small pie.

Last year, they threw the ball 451 times and Davis saw 95 of those targets (21%). I don't see a reason for more passes this year, but if there are any, most are probably going to Moss, Crabtree, or Manningham. Maybe this opens things up a bit more for Vernon Davis. I could see a couple more TDs for him, but I could also see Moss or Crabtree taking advantage of the focus on Davis and snagging those TDs. I know it is boring to project similar numbers, but I can't find a reason to expect a significant deviation. His catch % was way up while his ypr numbers were down from his career last year, as was his TD/rec. With the extra help at WR, I think it is realistic to expect a shift towards the norm for ypr and TDs, but he is unlikely to catch 70% of his targets again.

105 targets x 62% = 65 rec x 13 ypr = 845 yds 8 TD

Good buy low in 1.5 PPR TE leagues? Or stay away?

'Raider Nation said:

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He was due for a couple of dud games after that hot start. That being said, it's troubling that he isn't more involved in the offense lately.

I'm done starting him for a while and will use my backup option (Kyle Rudolph). It's not Davis that is the problem, because he was open multiple times last night, it's Alex Smith and the 49ers playcalling. He is their best offensive playmaker by far, and for some reason they seem either unwilling to get him involved in the gameplan. It's maddening.

Part of the issue, good or bad, is that Davis is an outstanding blocker and the Niners are a run-first team.

Seems to be how it is with Vernon. He has done this before but you know he will bounce back and, at the end of the year, will be in the top 5-7 or so. I mean, there is a reason why he was in the top 2-3 TE up until the last few weeks.

I think he is probably the best "Non-matchup-proof TE" in the NFL; the best of the TEs that aren't automatic but are still able to be a top 5 Te. You just have to think about his game for a minute before deciding to start him.

I had Vernon last year and this is the norm. This year started out better but seems hes back to being used more as a blocker. I barley played him last year due to the fact that he can get you a zero at any time and less then 5 more then not and then have a 19 point game . Hes not a buy low. While he is super talented and capable of a big game , there are more consistent TE's you can grab or trade for costing less.

better NFL-TE than FF-TE, that's for sure

I know the giants were really focused on shutting him down last week. He drew a lot of attention on a few plays that opened up passes for other players last night. Teams with good secondaries are a tough matchup for him because they are going to force SF to make someone else besides Davis beat them deep.

'thecatch said:

I know the giants were really focused on shutting him down last week. He drew a lot of attention on a few plays that opened up passes for other players last night. Teams with good secondaries are a tough matchup for him because they are going to force SF to make someone else besides Davis beat them deep.

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Agreed - part of Smith's development as an NFL QB is the realization that he doesn't need to force feed the ball to Davis.Crabtree continues to improve, defenses still have to account for Moss, Manningham can get open, and then you have Gore as one of the best pass-catching RBs in the game.

I traded for him yesterday just in time to get him in my lineup for this week. Awesome.

'zamboni said:

'thecatch said:

I know the giants were really focused on shutting him down last week. He drew a lot of attention on a few plays that opened up passes for other players last night. Teams with good secondaries are a tough matchup for him because they are going to force SF to make someone else besides Davis beat them deep.

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Agreed - part of Smith's development as an NFL QB is the realization that he doesn't need to force feed the ball to Davis.

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I'm not sure that he's ever forced the ball to Davis. Other than a few games last year at the end of the season, Davis has been criminally underused in the 49ers offense.

'butcher boy said:

I think you guys are overshooting here. The 49ers have added many parts to their offense and it's inevitable that some of Vernon's balls will go to other guys. Vernon is an excellent blocker, and it would be foolish of the 49ers not to take advantage of this and utilize the receiving talents that they now have that they didn't before.

70/835/7

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This guy looks like a ####### Nostradamus.

It should be noted that Crabtree has had terrible games the same weeks that Vernon has. They have each been under 10 PPR points in the same three weeks.