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Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Steve Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
As the primary WR on the Bills without much of a challenge from any other player – Johnson is a solid if unspectacular option as a WR2. Despite consecutive 1000 yard seasons, Johnson has but 4 100 yard games. As the clear cut WR1 on a team with questionable passing game pedigree, I don’t feel there is much upside to explore with Johnson and the potential for a breakout season is minimal.

In addition, if you are the BUF brass, do you run your offense through potentially one of the most dynamic RB combinations in football or Ryan Fitzpatrick? Don’t get me wrong, the Bills need Fitzpatrick to be successful in order for them to be successful, but they’ll need to provide an offensive structure that takes the focus off Fitzpatrick’s ability to make plays. Last season, particularly in the season’s second half when the Bills lost 8 of their last 9…they were throwing the ball close to 40 times per game. That simply can’t happen again.

Over the last 2 seasons, Johnson has been targeted on about 25% of the Bills passing attempts. As such, I think he’ll top out at the 125 target area if he doesn’t come down even a bit more than that as the Bills look to spread out their passing game to other targets. This would be down from 143 & 135 the previous 2 years. So we’ll continue to see his stats creep down but the level of consistency Johnson has showed between his two seasons should give you as good an idea of where to draft him based upon expectation. Potentially has the narrowest range of any high-to-medium drafted player.

Prediction: 71 Receptions, 950 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s.

 
Stevie broke out in a large way in his 3rd year after posting just 12 receptions previously. On 142 targets he put up 82/1073/10 (WR10). Last year he was hampered by a groin injury all season long, which took offseason surgery to repair, and still managed 76/1004/7 (WR21) on 132 targets. It is also worth mentioning that his QB was playing injured for half the season. Give both his and Fitzpatrick's health, I think he is a lock to outperform his WR24 draft position. I'd like to say he doesn't have the upside of some of the guys around him, but that WR10 finish in 2010 says otherwise.

Here is the ADP for the WRs around him:

44 Marques Colston NO WR 17

45 Miles Austin DAL WR 18

46 Vincent Jackson TB WR 19

49 Dwayne Bowe KC WR 20

50 Demaryius Thomas DEN WR 21

55 Kenny Britt TEN WR 22

57 Jeremy Maclin PHI WR 23

58 Steve Johnson BUF WR 24

61 DeSean Jackson PHI WR 25

65 Antonio Brown PIT WR 26

66 Brandon Lloyd NE WR 27

I like Stevie over everyone there except for Miles Austin and Brandon Lloyd, but Antonio Brown is very close.

Colston is on an offense that surely won't have as many passes or yards to go around as last year's record year.

VJax is in a new situation which could be explosive, but I just don't like his chances there. Which Freeman will he be catching passes from? 2010 or 2011?

Bowe will likely see a similar number of targets as Stevie, but KC is better set up to pound the ball in than Buffalo. His targets will decrease if anything.

Thomas has upside with Peyton there, but Decker's rapport with Manning has to be concerning as does Manning's health and arm strength.

Britt is coming off ACL surgery and is likely on a rather poor passing attack.

Maclin should put up similar number to Stevie, but Vick's injury history bumps Maclin down a bit.

Jackson is just an inconsistent performer coupled with the questions surronding Vick's health.

So I think Stevie is a great value here that can be drafted a round early. His consistency should have you sleeping well at night. If you snag him at his ADP of WR24, you are drafting him as the last WR2 off the board, but he'll almost certainly give you over 1000 yards and 7 TD which is better than most people's WR2.

140 targets, 80 receptions, 1050 yds (13.1 ypr), 9 TD

 
I have him at 79/1027 and 7 TDs, which pretty much is in line with his ADP. He's a bit of a bonehead, so there's some concern there, but not enough to bump his numbers down significantly.

 
'Bigboy10182000 said:
'GroveDiesel said:
'Bigboy10182000 said:
Stevie played hurt mostly all of last season, didnt he?
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Yes. He had a torn groin muscle for a large chunk of the season.
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I thought so. He seems to be going under the rador (havent checked his ADP) and I'm expecting big things from him this year.
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Considering he finished 21st last year with the injury (10th the year before) and his ADP is 24th right now, he's a nice upside pick. He's got the same QB, same offense not a ton of competition from the #2...I'm really liking him.
 
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Glad I opened this. Hadn't thought much about him this year, and didnt even know about the groin.

 
I quite like Steve Johnson as an undervalued guy. He produced well while hobbled with the groin last year AND his QB was playing hurt for half the year as well.

I like a healthy Johnson (with a healthy QB) to push for WR1 #s.

88 - 1190 - 10

 
He's on my draft board and I've generally been able to get him at the end of the 5th early 6th round in 12 team PPR league MOCKS

Problem is, the following other WR's are also sometimes available and I wonder if one (which one?) might be better options when I have my actual draft?

Bowe

Maclin

Desean Jackson

Antonio Brown

Mike Wallace

Eric Decker

Demaryius Thomas

Reggie Wayne

How would any of you rank them and who would you take and why? Any concern on the groin for SJ?

 
'xenon said:
He's on my draft board and I've generally been able to get him at the end of the 5th early 6th round in 12 team PPR league MOCKSProblem is, the following other WR's are also sometimes available and I wonder if one (which one?) might be better options when I have my actual draft?BoweMaclinDesean JacksonAntonio BrownMike WallaceEric DeckerDemaryius ThomasReggie WayneHow would any of you rank them and who would you take and why? Any concern on the groin for SJ?
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Something like this:Bowe - based on the number of targets he should get as the clear WR1Stevie - basically a toss up with Bowe due to similar situationMaclin/Desean - one, they take targets away from each other (neither has had a 140/150 target season like Bowe or 130/140 like Stevie). two, Vick's passing numbers and three, Vick's injury risk.Brown/Wallace - I would actually put Brown ahead of Maclin/DeSean in PPR. And if Wallace gets traded/doesn't report, I'd put him up with Bowe and Stevie. Otherwise, they are going to take away from each other.DT/Decker - same thing, except add the Payton problems. Decker I would put up just behind Brown in PPR. Wayne - I like his upside in PPR esp. now that Collie looks to be out. The only WR that I would consider over Stevie is Bowe. While Stevie might have the groin issue to deal with, but Bowe is a bit behind on the learning curve due to missing camp.
 
'xenon said:
He's on my draft board and I've generally been able to get him at the end of the 5th early 6th round in 12 team PPR league MOCKSProblem is, the following other WR's are also sometimes available and I wonder if one (which one?) might be better options when I have my actual draft?BoweMaclinDesean JacksonAntonio BrownMike WallaceEric DeckerDemaryius ThomasReggie WayneHow would any of you rank them and who would you take and why? Any concern on the groin for SJ?
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First off, his groin injury scared me last year but his ypr was 0.1 yards higher than the year before. He only saw 8 less targets and had 6 less receptions, so the only real difference between his WR10 finish and WR21 was TD production (10 vs. 7). That number is so variable, though, that I wouldn't look into it too much. He's currently drafted as WR24 so if you are getting him at street value I think you are getting a bargain. Last year was probably his floor and it was better than the price you paid.That being said, I agree that some of those guys around him have strong cases to be made.55 Brandon Lloyd - my preferred 5th round WR57 Vincent Jackson - I could easily be wrong, but don't have a good feeling here59 Jeremy Maclin - very similar to Stevie but more expensive with likely less targets61 Dwayne Bowe - I do like him this year, but if Baldwin comes on there aren't many passes to go around65 Steve Johnson - I'm expecting 80/1100/866 Antonio Brown - very, very tempting67 DeSean Jackson - never been a fan68 Eric Decker - also very, very tempting. I might pull the trigger on Decker but he's certainly not as safe of a bet as Stevie74 Pierre Garcon - Royster is the only Washington player I might draft75 Torrey Smith - certainly made a case for himself in the 3rd preseason game. I'm undecided and after that game his ADP is going to rise. A week ago you could've had him a round later than SJ80 Reggie Wayne - I think you'll still be able to get Wayne a round later than Stevie and if you need a WR2 and WR3 in the 6th/7th then Stevie/Reggie are bargains. If you want your WR1/2/3 to finish 6/18/30 then you should feel very good about ???/Stevie/Reggie. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them both finish in the teens.And no, I'm not worried about the groin enough to move him around. He had surgery and now he's sore. Sounds normal to me. Also sounds like he's taking precautions to keep it healthy so that actually makes me feel better. If he can put up 76/1004/7 with a groin injury last year then why worry this year? It may be sore but it's got to be better than last year when he was playing without surgery.
 
Pretty pleased with Stevie's price this year. Last year I thought he was a bit overvalued by folks expecting a rise in production off 2010, but this year I think he's a little undervalued. Two straight years of 70+ receptions and 1000 yards, same offense, no significant other changes in offensive personnel--I think he'll give you just what he's been giving you, with TDs variable and the ultimate determinant of him being WR10 or WR20. With his ADP being steadily in the late 5th/early 6th all summer, I think he's a good addition to any team.

 
I traded Fred Jackson who I had kept for a 5th rounder for Johnson (who had been kept by his owner for a 10th). In the 5th round of my keeper league Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon where they guys taken before him so I feel good about getting value for him. With him and Fitz healthy and a solid rushing attack he should easily match last seasons totals and possibly add 10% to those totals. Good value in the 4th. Better in the 5th. Excellent if he somehow slips to the 6th (talk up his groin pain in your local league....:-)

 
'Bigboy10182000 said:
And now he says his groin is only 90%...I'm sure it will get stronger with the season starting :wall:
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What do you think his groin was last year before surgery when he put up 76/1004/7? I couldn't land him in any leagues, but if I had I'd feel fine about him.90% or 100%, I feel like he is a :IBTL: to beat his ADP.

 
'JShare87 said:
'VA703 said:
starting him without any 2nd guesses
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On Revis Island? I know that he's had success against Revis in the past, but I don't like starting any receiver against Revis.
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Paradigm shift, hes not a death sentence for WRs anymore certainly not in the current state of the Jets team as a whole.I have him at 95/1300+/10 which puts him comfortably in the top 5 - my bold prediction for the year, so of course doomed to failure.
 
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'FF Ninja said:
'Bigboy10182000 said:
And now he says his groin is only 90%...I'm sure it will get stronger with the season starting :wall:
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What do you think his groin was last year before surgery when he put up 76/1004/7? I couldn't land him in any leagues, but if I had I'd feel fine about him.90% or 100%, I feel like he is a :IBTL: to beat his ADP.
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I just would have rather had him say he was 100% after surgery.I'm starting him regardless and I'm expecting 7-80 and maybe a TD :thumbup:

 
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Stevie is the Bills' #1 weapon in the passing game without a doubt. I'm expecting him to take the "next" step this season. His groin was bothering him all year last season and he still managed to become the first Bill ever to post back to back 1000 yard seasons. He is unquestionably Fitz's favorite target and has a great rapport with him.

This is the first time in a long time that this Bills' offense has had some continuity. Same coach, same system, same QB. The offensive line has gotten better with the return of Eric Wood at C and an upgrade at LT in Cordy Glenn. The line was actually pretty damn good last season without those two; they finished #1 in pass blocking- allowing the fewest sacks in the entire NFL.

Chan Gailey likes to use the spread to stretch the defense horizontally to help open up the running game. The Bills use the pass to set up the run. Johnson was one of the few WR's to have success against Revis last season and I don't expect that to change.

 
'We Tigers said:
Pretty pleased with Stevie's price this year. Last year I thought he was a bit overvalued by folks expecting a rise in production off 2010, but this year I think he's a little undervalued. Two straight years of 70+ receptions and 1000 yards, same offense, no significant other changes in offensive personnel--I think he'll give you just what he's been giving you, with TDs variable and the ultimate determinant of him being WR10 or WR20. With his ADP being steadily in the late 5th/early 6th all summer, I think he's a good addition to any team.
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I backed this up over the weekend and was lucky to get Stevie as my "6th man" in a keeper league--first off the bench in a 2RB/2WR/1 flex league. May he be Hardenesque in his impact. Can't wait to see him tangle with Revis again.
 
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I'm benching him this week because I have a few better options, but I am excited about him for the season. I think he's a WR1 by the end of the year, and was a great value at his adp.

 
'GroveDiesel said:
I think the Jets will double Stevie just to try to shut down the talk of him "solving" Revis.
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They probably do regardless and let someone else try to beat them. Stevie also has some extra motivation from that horrible potential game-winning drop at the Meadowlands last year.
 
missed practice - groin injury flaring up this early is a real bad sign.....

 
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Limited practice on friday.

Looks like he will probably be available, but not sure I'd trust him as a FF start.

 
Both Gailey and Stevie said he'll play.

Stevie said that what he was feeling was "tightness" as compared to the pain last year. He said it was something that the doctors told him to expect for a little while after the surgery, but that the underlying issue is fixed and shouldn't be a problem again.

Honestly, I'm wondering if the issue was a hernia rather than a torn groin muscle. It would make sense on a lot of fronts. Especially his comment about the underlying issue being fixed and not being a problem going forward.

 
'UKColt said:
Limited practice on friday.Looks like he will probably be available, but not sure I'd trust him as a FF start.
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I have him and am glad he's feeling good to start - but against the Jets healthy or hurt he was going to have some issues breaking into my Starting FF lineup.
 
In his last four meeting with the Jets, and specifically Revis (although I think Revis was injured in their first meeting in 2010), Stevie hasn't scored less than 11 points in 1PPR leagues. Still, I think any upside is capped here and will be sitting Stevie in two of my leagues.

 
Stevie Johnson is a guy I'll be targeting in leagues where I don't own him if he struggles against Revis this week. The injury, combined with a slow week one (even against Revis) will cause some owners to panic. I'd love to pounce on that.

 
'Chicago Hooligan said:
Loved him during drafts, disappointed he's still not 100%. Benching him in leagues where I have anything resembling a decent alternative.
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He had a groin injury all year last year, didnt affect his production in the slightest. Starting him with confidence, just hoping that FJax can keep up.
 
Just tweeted:

@ByTimGraham

May mean nothing, but Stevie Johnson not on field with rest of WRs, running warmup routes for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Andy Levitre took a rep.

 
For anyone who watched the game, how did he look? Since they were pretty much the whole game I would have expected more targets, but from the play-by-play it didn't look like he got a lot of targets. Was this because of Revis or injury holding him back?

 
'chihawk said:
For anyone who watched the game, how did he look? Since they were pretty much the whole game I would have expected more targets, but from the play-by-play it didn't look like he got a lot of targets. Was this because of Revis or injury holding him back?
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The TD and a few catches came in garbage time when the game was out of hand. Revis did cover him mostly, but it wasn't necessarily the coverage that limited him, it was more Fitzpatrick's awful play and a very unimaginative offensive game plan. Fitz was picked once on a terrible out route to Johnson that had no zip on it. I think before the 4th quarter, Johnson probably had something like 2-3 receptions for 20-30 yards. The injury may have limited him a little bit, because Donald Jones, David Nelson, and Scott Chandler looked slightly better (although that could be the Revis factor, too). He's probably a hold, but I would move him if you can get an owner to jump on his mediocre statline that was actually better than the QB-WR play. Although in general I expect some rebound from both Johnson and Fitzpatrick going forward, esp. at home next week against the Chiefs.
 
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Two of the INTs came on plays where Johnson had his man clearly beaten but Fitz threw the ball way late and without any zip. A third play, Johnson was open by about 3 steps of Revis if Fitz throws it to his sideline shoulder and lets Stevie turn and grab it. Instead, Fitz overthrew it to the inside and Stevie had to break up what would have been another INT.

So the good news is that Stevie was open. A lot. He could have easily had another 50-70 yards IMO. The bad news is that his QB sucks and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn or throw the ball harder than a JV player.

 
'cstu said:
Seems to be having a down year, what's the deal? Only 35 catches on 71 targets.
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Not to put all the blame on Fitzpatrick, but he Fitzpatrick is not a very good QB at all. He misses so many throws that a good NFL qb should make. THis is hurting Stevie a lot. He misses him far too often.
 
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