Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Calvin Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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Madden curse. 'Nuff said.

Money in the bank.

Johnson will put up 100 yards and 1 TD for every game Stafford plays.

A new and improved LT/O-line should help Stafford stay up right for at least 10 games.

He will still put up 75 yards and .7 TDs per contest with Shaun Hill.



1450 yards, 14 TDs with Stafford missing 6 games. A ceiling of 1800, 22.

'BigSteelThrill said:

Money in the bank.

Johnson will put up 100 yards and 1 TD for every game Stafford plays.

A new and improved LT should help Stafford stay up right for at least 10 games.

He will still put up 75 yards and .7 TDs per contest with Shaun Hill.



1450 yards, 14 TDs with Stafford missing 6 games. A ceiling of 1800, 22.

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Reiff is highly unlikely to start at left tackle this year.

'Anthony Borbely said:

'BigSteelThrill said:

Money in the bank.

Johnson will put up 100 yards and 1 TD for every game Stafford plays.

A new and improved LT should help Stafford stay up right for at least 10 games.

He will still put up 75 yards and .7 TDs per contest with Shaun Hill.



1450 yards, 14 TDs with Stafford missing 6 games. A ceiling of 1800, 22.

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Reiff is highly unlikely to start at left tackle this year.

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Initially, I agree. But sometimes necessity sits in. Especially when its a player with talent.*edited to state O-Line.

We all saw what Calvin can do. And there is no reason why he can't do it again in 2012.

92 rec, 1400 yds, 15 TD

Was 2011 Calvin's ceiling?

'Grahamburn said:

Was 2011 Calvin's ceiling?

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No way. He is the mist gifted WR since Moss with a stud young QB in a pass first offense. Calvin's ceiling is 1900 and 20. I don't think he gets there, but 1600 and 16 is a lock if he stats healthy

'Ilov80s said:

'Grahamburn said:

Was 2011 Calvin's ceiling?

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No way. He is the mist gifted WR since Moss with a stud young QB in a pass first offense. Calvin's ceiling is 1900 and 20. I don't think he gets there, but 1600 and 16 is a lock if he stats healthy

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It was a somewhat rhetorical question. I'm a firm believer in regression after a huge season unless that player is Calvin Johnson. He's simply unstoppable, and the Lions haven't made any significant changes to suggest that their offensive philosophy is changing in any way. Calvin really started to dominate even more than he had been earlier in the year during those final 4 games of the Lions' season. He had 36 receptions, 771 yards, and 6 TDs in just those games. 3 of them over 200 yards. That production isn't sustainable, but it seemed like Calvin and Stafford took it to another level at the end of the year. How much of that will carry over into 2012? Jerry Rice's single season yardage record is 1,848. Calvin would need to average 115.6 yards per game to break it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall.

My concern looking at history is that receivers coming off of uber seasons almost always take a decent step back. Since 1960, Megatron was the 34 receiver to score 225 fantasy points. Only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison had seasons where they did better the next year. Only Rice, Harrison, and Owens had a follow up season within 20 points of the year before. WR on average have lost 25% of their fantasy production the following season.

I am not going suggest that Johnson will take a step back this year simple because that's what the numbers seem to indicate. I do think he may end up in the Rice / Harrison / Owens class. But even Randy Moss normally had follow up numbers that were not in that same strata.

Even with a drop off, Johnson could still be a true stud at WR, but I have seen him going around the Top 5 overall. At that price, he almost HAS to have a repeat of last year (or close to it).

It's great that people are suggesting that the sky is the limit for Johnson, but there are only so many times the Lions can throw the football. Detroit threw 666 passes last season . . . so I will take the under for this year.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

There may not be kryptonite to be found, but if there is a concern it's that TD numbers are the hardest thing to repeat. I will go with 85-1400-11.

90 catches

1450 yards

15 tds

Johnson may be the most physically gifted WR to ever play - I'm making an all inclusive statement. On top of that, you don’t need to use the words moody or mercurial to describe him. So long as he stays healthy, he is the clear cut #1 player at his position, a distinction no other player can lay absolute and unanimous claim to. The question simply is – how high can he go?

For instance, in Megatron’s last 4 games (including his playoff performance against NO), Johnson put up a ridiculous 36/771/6 line. For ishnet and giggles, that projects out to a 144/3084/24 line over 16 games! Has anyone ever done this? Come close? Oh…and he did this with a 70% catch rate. In 2011 overall, he had six 2 TD games. The prevailing school of thought is that the Lions need someone to emerge across from Megatron, but my question is why? Noone can cover him now…it seems that no two people can cover him when he’s on. And with another year of synergy between him and Stafford not to mention the guy only turns 27 this season and thus is in the midst of his physical prime…could we be looking at the first 2000 yard season for a WR in NFL history? I mean, he put up close to 1700 yards when he went through a 5 game stretch where he averaged but 63.6 YPG. If he can eliminate such a lull…isn’t 2000 possible?

I don’t know if I’m willing to go there. But, I can see a scenario where Megatron outdoes himself. A lot of folks are counting on Titus Young to emerge and he may indeed do so. But this is also an offense that provided Brandon Pettigrew 126 targets. Nate Burleson was solid for the Lions as well. But at the end of the day, Megatron was only targeted on 24.1% of the Lions pass attempts. Of the 14 WR’s that finished with at least 1100 receiving yards, that ranked a middle of the pack 7th…and the WR’s below him were largely featured in dual threat or distributed passing attacks (NO, GB, PIT, NYG). So I think there is room for Johnson to grow here, but I also suspect that Stafford won’t approach 663 pass attempts although 625 seems reasonable given the Lions personnel. So Megatron could still be in line for 175-180 targets if the Lions decide to target him with even more abandon which in reality, you really couldn’t accuse them of last season despite Megatron’s prodigious numbers. With a 65% catch rate, which would represent an increase over 2011…115-120 receptions is within reach.

The above analysis probably represents top end numbers, but like I said before…I don’t think the NFL has ever seen a talent like Megatron and with Stafford and his own maturation as a player – I think the only thing that can hold him back is an injury. Given the positional advantage he could potentially provide, an argument could be made for him as the #1 overall pick for such a swashbuckling owner.

Prediction: 114 Receptions; 1843 Receiving Yards, 19 TD’s; 2 Rushes 23 Rushing Yards

Calvin is very likely to score the same # of TDs as the sum of the next 2 WRs taken. When looking at Fitz,AJ, White, and Jennings numbers the last couple years, it seems like an even money bet.

'David Yudkin said:

My concern looking at history is that receivers coming off of uber seasons almost always take a decent step back. Since 1960, Megatron was the 34 receiver to score 225 fantasy points. Only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison had seasons where they did better the next year. Only Rice, Harrison, and Owens had a follow up season within 20 points of the year before. WR on average have lost 25% of their fantasy production the following season.

I am not going suggest that Johnson will take a step back this year simple because that's what the numbers seem to indicate. I do think he may end up in the Rice / Harrison / Owens class. But even Randy Moss normally had follow up numbers that were not in that same strata.



Even with a drop off, Johnson could still be a true stud at WR, but I have seen him going around the Top 5 overall. At that price, he almost HAS to have a repeat of last year (or close to it).

It's great that people are suggesting that the sky is the limit for Johnson, but there are only so many times the Lions can throw the football. Detroit threw 666 passes last season . . . so I will take the under for this year.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

There may not be kryptonite to be found, but if there is a concern it's that TD numbers are the hardest thing to repeat. I will go with 85-1400-11.

Click to expand...

I disagree with this statement. A player picked in the top five is often picked there because of their high floor. If I pick a player in the top 5 and he finishes somewhere in the Top 12, I'm generally pretty happy about that because I hit on my first pick in a draft.

'David Yudkin said:

Detroit threw 666 passes last season . . . so I will take the under for this year.

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The above pretty much sums it up for me, but I'll go into a little detail:This isn't a team devoid of passing options. Pettigrew is solid. I think Burleson is underrated. Young and Broyles could develop. Best and Smith are good receiving backs. I don't see how they could justify throwing to Calvin more often than last year when he is receiving so much defensive attention.Not to mention the glass man at QB. Shaun Hill is capable but if I'm hitching my mid-first round wagon to a WR, I'd like to believe his QB is not only elite but also sturdy. And I don't think either when I think of Stafford. The guy did well last year, but he had 663 passes to work with and one of the best WR corps in the game. I mean, Kevin Kolb had a higher ypa.150 targets x .6 = 90 rec x 16 ypr = 1440 yds 12 TD

'Sabertooth said:

'David Yudkin said:

My concern looking at history is that receivers coming off of uber seasons almost always take a decent step back. Since 1960, Megatron was the 34 receiver to score 225 fantasy points. Only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison had seasons where they did better the next year. Only Rice, Harrison, and Owens had a follow up season within 20 points of the year before. WR on average have lost 25% of their fantasy production the following season.

I am not going suggest that Johnson will take a step back this year simple because that's what the numbers seem to indicate. I do think he may end up in the Rice / Harrison / Owens class. But even Randy Moss normally had follow up numbers that were not in that same strata.



Even with a drop off, Johnson could still be a true stud at WR, but I have seen him going around the Top 5 overall. At that price, he almost HAS to have a repeat of last year (or close to it).

It's great that people are suggesting that the sky is the limit for Johnson, but there are only so many times the Lions can throw the football. Detroit threw 666 passes last season . . . so I will take the under for this year.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

There may not be kryptonite to be found, but if there is a concern it's that TD numbers are the hardest thing to repeat. I will go with 85-1400-11.

Click to expand...

I disagree with this statement. A player picked in the top five is often picked there because of their high floor. If I pick a player in the top 5 and he finishes somewhere in the Top 12, I'm generally pretty happy about that because I hit on my first pick in a draft.

Click to expand...

Let me break this down a little more.Yes, Megatron was huge last year. And as you say he is unlikely to totally bomb. Many folks are suggesting that his production last year is seemingly his FLOOR for this year, which I think is a bit off the wall.

Johnson's seasonal rankings have been WR 35, 3, 21, 6, and 1. His value score in a 0 PPR league in 2011 was 149 (which is worthy of a first round pick). However, that was the first time he scored over 100 value points. Last year, he was 1 of 13 players that scored over 100. Generally speaking, if someone you draft scores over 100, you did pretty well with that pick no matter where you drafted him.

HOWEVER, it is possible for someone to finish ranked #1 at a position and STILL not be worth where that player was drafted.

There were several threads over the years that suggested that Peyton Manning was worth a mid to late first round pick because he was consistent and you knew what you were getting when you drafted him. While that may have been true, that doesn't mean he was worth a pick that high, as most years he did not rank as the #1 QB and many years on a VBD basis he did not score high enough to merit that high a pick. (IIRC, he only had 3 seasons where his production turned out to be worthy of a first round pick).

It doesn't make sense to me that people would want to draft a player and (most likely) get back 75-80 cents on their dollar investment. To be clear, I am not dissing Megatron, but I have seen drafts and threads where people are discussing taking him first OVERALL.

Hes the best WR playing, but these #s are crazy. You still gotta worry about Staffords injury history, theres a ton of passing weapons to go with him. I think last yrs #s are his ceiling, 1000 Recs / 1700 yds / 15 TDs, thats with Stafford healthy all season long.

'KellysHeroes said:

Hes the best WR playing, but these #s are crazy. You still gotta worry about Staffords injury history, theres a ton of passing weapons to go with him. I think last yrs #s are his ceiling, 1000 Recs / 1700 yds / 15 TDs, thats with Stafford healthy all season long.

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After this quote by Burleson, it sounds like he may have 1000 catches-

"I know it sounds corny," Burleson said. "You wouldn't think a guy like that could come back and get better, but he does."... Burleson said Johnson looked "stronger and faster" this spring and should put up more eye-popping numbers come fall. "That's pretty much all that counts," Burleson said. "He probably dropped a little bit of weight, so he's in extremely good shape. I see him in the weight room, so I know he's stronger. And on the field he's yards ahead of us in conditioning drills; he's still running past guys easily."

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I Love me Some Calvin JohnsonI don't know if he'll do better than last year, but barring injury to himself (Madden ugh!) I have doubts that it will be much worse (& could be a little better). Maybe he doesn't catch 96 balls again, but the yardage could (& should) be about the same- 1,681 yards. TDs are always flukey, but you got to think he can (& prob should) catch about a TD a game- 16.

But if there is a slight dropoff, a regression so to speak, I think it will look similar to 83 catches; 1,400 yards; 13 TDs (an average of his career top 3 #s in each category); good for 301 points in my PPR league, would have still been the #3 WR last year.

Burleson said Johnson looked "stronger and faster" this spring.

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That's scary.

Calvin Johnson is playing in the perfect fantasy storm. He is in his prime, playing with a young QB gunslinger, the Lions have no running game, and their defense gives up points. Last year was the first full year that both Calvin and Stafford played together and it was awesome. They will be just as good this year, don't miss out on the fun of being a Megatron owner.

101 receptions, 14 td's and 1700 yards

100, 1,500, 13 = 328 PPR, 20.5 PPR PPG

'David Yudkin said:

.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

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Stafford broke his finger and played through it, wearing that glove that killed not only his accuracy but his velocity too. Stafford broke finger week 8 against Denver, Calvin's last good game of the great start you mention. Glove came off 4 weeks later against New Orleans, but if you remember, the Saints were running that "punt gunner" coverage against Calvin, they completely sold out to not let Calvin beat them (still finished 6-69 on 8 targets). The following week the Lions scored multiple defensive touchdowns against the Vikings + they allowed Minny to run for 269 yards, Detroit ended up only runing 46 plays from scrimmage (29 pass/17 rush), Calvin had 4 targets. Then the Mega finish we all know and love.

Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

How ridiculous? 71-1364-15.

Those extrapolated to 16 games (103-1984-22) are probably his ceiling for sustained season long production IMO. Obviously, he's already proven he can dominate beyond those already video games numbers for shorter stints. Will we ever see such a season? No idea, but if I had to bet on one guy to do it, it'd be him.

'drater said:

'David Yudkin said:

.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

Click to expand...

Stafford broke his finger and played through it, wearing that glove that killed not only his accuracy but his velocity too. Stafford broke finger week 8 against Denver, Calvin's last good game of the great start you mention. Glove came off 4 weeks later against New Orleans, but if you remember, the Saints were running that "punt gunner" coverage against Calvin, they completely sold out to not let Calvin beat them (still finished 6-69 on 8 targets). The following week the Lions scored multiple defensive touchdowns against the Vikings + they allowed Minny to run for 269 yards, Detroit ended up only runing 46 plays from scrimmage (29 pass/17 rush), Calvin had 4 targets. Then the Mega finish we all know and love.

Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

How ridiculous? 71-1364-15.

Those extrapolated to 16 games (103-1984-22) are probably his ceiling for sustained season long production IMO. Obviously, he's already proven he can dominate beyond those already video games numbers for shorter stints. Will we ever see such a season? No idea, but if I had to bet on one guy to do it, it'd be him.

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No offense, but you basically said "if we take out all of Calvin's bad games, and extrapolate his good/great ones, he'll be the best FF WR ever!" So if his QB gets nicked up, that could hurt his stats. Good thing his QB doesn't have a history of injuries.

If defenses "sell out" to stop Calvin and make someone else beat him, he could put up pedestrian numbers. I bet no NFL team will want to eliminate the threat that Johnson poses because they are afraid of Titus Young, Nate Burleson, or Brandon Pettigrew.

If you don't count games where he did nothing for some trumped-up reason (Young had 87/TD, Pettigrew had 57/TD?), then he'll be a FF stud.

Don't get me wrong, I like Johnson to be a top-5 WR this year, but you're "logic" seems to be very flawed in this post.

'Bayhawks said:

'drater said:

'David Yudkin said:

.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

Click to expand...

Stafford broke his finger and played through it, wearing that glove that killed not only his accuracy but his velocity too. Stafford broke finger week 8 against Denver, Calvin's last good game of the great start you mention. Glove came off 4 weeks later against New Orleans, but if you remember, the Saints were running that "punt gunner" coverage against Calvin, they completely sold out to not let Calvin beat them (still finished 6-69 on 8 targets). The following week the Lions scored multiple defensive touchdowns against the Vikings + they allowed Minny to run for 269 yards, Detroit ended up only runing 46 plays from scrimmage (29 pass/17 rush), Calvin had 4 targets. Then the Mega finish we all know and love.

Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

How ridiculous? 71-1364-15.

Those extrapolated to 16 games (103-1984-22) are probably his ceiling for sustained season long production IMO. Obviously, he's already proven he can dominate beyond those already video games numbers for shorter stints. Will we ever see such a season? No idea, but if I had to bet on one guy to do it, it'd be him.

Click to expand...

No offense, but you basically said "if we take out all of Calvin's bad games, and extrapolate his good/great ones, he'll be the best FF WR ever!" So if his QB gets nicked up, that could hurt his stats. Good thing his QB doesn't have a history of injuries.

If defenses "sell out" to stop Calvin and make someone else beat him, he could put up pedestrian numbers. I bet no NFL team will want to eliminate the threat that Johnson poses because they are afraid of Titus Young, Nate Burleson, or Brandon Pettigrew.

If you don't count games where he did nothing for some trumped-up reason (Young had 87/TD, Pettigrew had 57/TD?), then he'll be a FF stud.

Don't get me wrong, I like Johnson to be a top-5 WR this year, but you're "logic" seems to be very flawed in this post.

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I'm not making any claims one way or the other, so I'm not sure where my "logic" is flawed. Yudkin asked what teams did different when Calvin performed at a pedestrian level during that middle stretch, I'd already analyzed it elsewhere so I thought I'd share. The only reason I mentioned extrapolating his numbers later in the post is because there was other discussion up thread regarding where his "ceiling" was and it seemed to me, it probably wasn't going to get much better than his best games in a great year pushed out to a full season (stars aligning perfectly and all that ####, again, I never said it was going to happen, I was quite clear about stating that I had no idea if we'd ever see numbers like that).You're making a bunch of snarky comments to disprove a position I'm not claiming. Where did I mention that his QB wasn't injury prone? Where did I say that more teams wouldn't adopt the Saints approach (pretty sure I mentioned it was a possibility). Thanks for the no offense part though, I always like to predate an insult with an idiom intended to lessen the impact of the coming verbal slap too.

I'm sure there's plenty of people in this thread willing to argue that Calvin will put up the greatest season ever soon, but don't plant that strawman on me.

'drater said:

I'm not making any claims one way or the other, so I'm not sure where my "logic" is flawed. Yudkin asked what teams did different when Calvin performed at a pedestrian level during that middle stretch, I'd already analyzed it elsewhere so I thought I'd share.

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It's pretty amazing to me how few people seem to know or remember Stafford's injury on his throwing hand. Not just as it applies to Mega, but also as it applies to Stafford. There was a very clear and drastic statistical drop off for Stafford and the Det passing game in the games in which he gutted it out with that broken finger. The numbers were still impressive enough, for an average NFL QB or passing team. They were not consistent with the rest of the Det season or the potential of that offense though. Everyone seems to be predicting that there is no way Stafford or the Det passing game can replicate last season. I really don't see why they can't, even if they do pass less. Stafford's, Mega's and the entire offense had a drastic decrease in efficiency during the stretch he was injured. If he's healthy for a full 16 then I can't see this offense taking any steps back.Edit to add;I think Calvin is the safest player in all of fantasy football. He is sure to put up WR1 numbers if Stafford were to go down in training camp and if Stafford is healthy I think he is easily the best WR in all of football. Personally, I think he should garner serious #1 overall consideration in PPR formats.Floor; 80 receptions, 1200 yds, 11 TdsCeiling; 105 receptions, 1600 yds, 18 Tds

'JPeso said:

100, 1,500, 13 = 328 PPR, 20.5 PPR PPG

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You know what, this just isn't right. I thought about my 1 minute sketch of what the Lions passing game would do over my 13 minute shower. The water felt extra hot. I realized what a fool I had been - I had deserved to be burned. 114, 1,800, 15 = 384 PPR, 24.0 PPR PPGWhere did the other 14 completions, 300 yards, or 2 TD come from in just a 13 minute shower? I'm not really sure yet but I feel good about it - should work itself out.

'drater said:

'Bayhawks said:

'drater said:

'David Yudkin said:

.

I don't know what teams did differently mid season last year, as Johnson had a great start and a great finish but for a month or so in the middle he was human.

Click to expand...

Stafford broke his finger and played through it, wearing that glove that killed not only his accuracy but his velocity too. Stafford broke finger week 8 against Denver, Calvin's last good game of the great start you mention. Glove came off 4 weeks later against New Orleans, but if you remember, the Saints were running that "punt gunner" coverage against Calvin, they completely sold out to not let Calvin beat them (still finished 6-69 on 8 targets). The following week the Lions scored multiple defensive touchdowns against the Vikings + they allowed Minny to run for 269 yards, Detroit ended up only runing 46 plays from scrimmage (29 pass/17 rush), Calvin had 4 targets. Then the Mega finish we all know and love.

Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

How ridiculous? 71-1364-15.

Those extrapolated to 16 games (103-1984-22) are probably his ceiling for sustained season long production IMO. Obviously, he's already proven he can dominate beyond those already video games numbers for shorter stints. Will we ever see such a season? No idea, but if I had to bet on one guy to do it, it'd be him.

Click to expand...

No offense, but you basically said "if we take out all of Calvin's bad games, and extrapolate his good/great ones, he'll be the best FF WR ever!" So if his QB gets nicked up, that could hurt his stats. Good thing his QB doesn't have a history of injuries.

If defenses "sell out" to stop Calvin and make someone else beat him, he could put up pedestrian numbers. I bet no NFL team will want to eliminate the threat that Johnson poses because they are afraid of Titus Young, Nate Burleson, or Brandon Pettigrew.

If you don't count games where he did nothing for some trumped-up reason (Young had 87/TD, Pettigrew had 57/TD?), then he'll be a FF stud.

Don't get me wrong, I like Johnson to be a top-5 WR this year, but you're "logic" seems to be very flawed in this post.

Click to expand...

I'm not making any claims one way or the other, so I'm not sure where my "logic" is flawed. Yudkin asked what teams did different when Calvin performed at a pedestrian level during that middle stretch, I'd already analyzed it elsewhere so I thought I'd share. The only reason I mentioned extrapolating his numbers later in the post is because there was other discussion up thread regarding where his "ceiling" was and it seemed to me, it probably wasn't going to get much better than his best games in a great year pushed out to a full season (stars aligning perfectly and all that ####, again, I never said it was going to happen, I was quite clear about stating that I had no idea if we'd ever see numbers like that).You're making a bunch of snarky comments to disprove a position I'm not claiming. Where did I mention that his QB wasn't injury prone? Where did I say that more teams wouldn't adopt the Saints approach (pretty sure I mentioned it was a possibility). Thanks for the no offense part though, I always like to predate an insult with an idiom intended to lessen the impact of the coming verbal slap too.

I'm sure there's plenty of people in this thread willing to argue that Calvin will put up the greatest season ever soon, but don't plant that strawman on me.

Click to expand...

You didn't post this?Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

You say you shared your analysis. Your "analysis" was nothing other than excusing Calvin Johnson's "down games" last year. It was either his QB's fault, or the "craziest" defensive scheme, or just bad luck ("perfect storm" of factors").

And for the record, YOU did post that Calvin's ceiling was 103/1984/22. That would be the greatest season ever (for a FF WR). Your "logic" as to why/how that was his ceiling is flawed, and I pointed that out.

Just slot him WR1 on every draft board and be done with it. The projections on this player do not matter.

100/1750/15TD

'Bayhawks said:

You didn't post this?

Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

Click to expand...

I did but I'm not claiming you should take out his 5 worst games when evaluating him, just why I thought those performances happened + if you did look at the numbers in the games other than those, they're insane. I'm not positing that's how he should be viewed, 11 best games without comparing the ####e ones too. If you draft him, you're rolling him every week and those 5 games probably didn't help anybody win those weeks. Sorry if that was unclear and the cause of your beef with my "logic".

You say you shared your analysis. Your "analysis" was nothing other than excusing Calvin Johnson's "down games" last year. It was either his QB's fault, or the "craziest" defensive scheme, or just bad luck ("perfect storm" of factors").

Click to expand...

You're right, he sucks. Silly me. Again, I was trying to show why I thought he had a series of lesser performances sandwiched between a hot start and an amazing finish. You know, in response to the original quote I responded to. Nowhere in my post was an attempt to persuade people to disregard his lesser performances while focusing on his strong ones. Feel free to keep beating that drum though.

And for the record, YOU did post that Calvin's ceiling was 103/1984/22. That would be the greatest season ever (for a FF WR). Your "logic" as to why/how that was his ceiling is flawed, and I pointed that out.

Click to expand...

Right. Which is less than some of the numbers being bandied around in this thread. I honestly can't imagine him having a 16 game stretch at a higher level than his best 11 games in 2011. Therefore, that's in the range of his maximum ceiling in my opinon (again). I also said I had no idea if we'd see it or not. Some people want to prorate his last 4 games and pencil him in for 125+ catches and 3k yards, which while fun to discuss, seems way outside the realm of possibility to me.What unflawed logic would you use to determine Calvin's statistical "ceiling"?

'drater said:

'Bayhawks said:

You didn't post this?

Take out those three games of mediocre QB play (Staff had 9 of his 16 picks in those three glove games), one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen (more teams going to do that this year? Somebody is going to be open if so...bump somebody on the other side of the field...Titus and both TEs IMO) and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary (7-108-2 on 11 targets in the first Minnesota matchup)and his 11 games splits are flat out ridiculous.

Click to expand...

I did but I'm not claiming you should take out his 5 worst games when evaluating him, just why I thought those performances happened + if you did look at the numbers in the games other than those, they're insane. I'm not positing that's how he should be viewed, 11 best games without comparing the ####e ones too. If you draft him, you're rolling him every week and those 5 games probably didn't help anybody win those weeks. Sorry if that was unclear and the cause of your beef with my "logic".

You say you shared your analysis. Your "analysis" was nothing other than excusing Calvin Johnson's "down games" last year. It was either his QB's fault, or the "craziest" defensive scheme, or just bad luck ("perfect storm" of factors").

Click to expand...

You're right, he sucks. Silly me. Again, I was trying to show why I thought he had a series of lesser performances sandwiched between a hot start and an amazing finish. You know, in response to the original quote I responded to. Nowhere in my post was an attempt to persuade people to disregard his lesser performances while focusing on his strong ones. Feel free to keep beating that drum though.

And for the record, YOU did post that Calvin's ceiling was 103/1984/22. That would be the greatest season ever (for a FF WR). Your "logic" as to why/how that was his ceiling is flawed, and I pointed that out.

Click to expand...

Right. Which is less than some of the numbers being bandied around in this thread. I honestly can't imagine him having a 16 game stretch at a higher level than his best 11 games in 2011. Therefore, that's in the range of his maximum ceiling in my opinon (again). I also said I had no idea if we'd see it or not. Some people want to prorate his last 4 games and pencil him in for 125+ catches and 3k yards, which while fun to discuss, seems way outside the realm of possibility to me.What unflawed logic would you use to determine Calvin's statistical "ceiling"?

Click to expand...

How about you two take your pissing match over to the Mark Sanchez thread, nobody cares about him either.

'drater said:

You're right, he sucks. Silly me. Again, I was trying to show why I thought he had a series of lesser performances sandwiched between a hot start and an amazing finish. You know, in response to the original quote I responded to. Nowhere in my post was an attempt to persuade people to disregard his lesser performances while focusing on his strong ones. Feel free to keep beating that drum though.

Click to expand...

YOU posted "Take out those three games of mediocre QB play....one of the craziest defensive schemes I've ever seen....and a perfect storm of factors negating his opportunities against a exploitable secondary." If you are suggesting "taking out" his poor games, that IS disregarding his lesser performances. BTW-I never said he sucked, in fact I posted that I think he is a top-5 WR for this season.

'drater said:

'Bayhawks said:

And for the record, YOU did post that Calvin's ceiling was 103/1984/22. That would be the greatest season ever (for a FF WR). Your "logic" as to why/how that was his ceiling is flawed, and I pointed that out.

Click to expand...

Right. Which is less than some of the numbers being bandied around in this thread.

Click to expand...

No, it isn't. With the exception of the # of receptions, no other post has predicted as much as your nearly 2000 yard/22 TD "ceiling."

'drater said:

What unflawed logic would you use to determine Calvin's statistical "ceiling"?

Click to expand...

I'm not going to say my logic is unflawed, but I'd predict:about 140 targets, 80 receptions, 1300 yards, 12 TDs.

I don't see the Lions passing as much this year, whether by design, or game situation. But I still feel they are going to be a pass-first team, so I've predicted 600 attempts. With Titus Young (hopefully) stepping up, Burleson still there, Pettigrew and Scheffler (hopefully healthy), and Best (healthy?) or Smith (healthy?) as pass-catching options, Stafford won't HAVE to lock onto Johnson. That being said, I still expect Calvin to get the Lion's share of the targets, so I've given him 23% of the targets (only down slightly from the 27% he received last year).

Last year Johnson caught 60% of the passes he was targeted on, which was a big jump from his career average of 52%. I think part of that was due to Calvin Johnson hitting his prime, but some of that has to be (IMO) considered a statistical outlier, so I'm predicting a cath rate higher than his career rate (54%) but lower than his rate from last year (60%). 80 catches/140 targets= 57% catch rate.

Johnson is a TD machine; since his rookie year, only Randy Moss has caught more receiving TDs among WRs (and that includes Moss' record-breaking 1st year in NE). But his TD rate last year was 17%, much higher than his career average of 12%, and higher than the career averages of Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and TO. Even though CJ is incredibly talented, it's not reasonable to expect him to continue to produce receiving TDs at such a high rate, so I dropped his TD rate (slightly) to 15%. 12/80= 15%.

Question here does anybody here take the madden curse into consideration? I kno a lot of us like to brush it off but how many times do we gotta see this happen before we are believers??

I don't think Calvin will get hurt I think Stafford will thus effecting Calvin's numbers 1150 yds 10 td's not bad numbers but def not top 5 pick!

'Ministry of Pain said:

Just slot him WR1 on every draft board and be done with it. The projections on this player do not matter. 100/1750/15TD

Click to expand...

Life is never that simple. If that were the case for Johnson, he would have ranked as the #1 WR every year he's played. Yet last year was the only time he ranked as the top WR.I am not saying he shouldn't be considered the top fantasy receiver, only that most times things don't work out as planned. He may very well end up as #1 again this year, but very few receivers have had seasons like he had last year and even fewer repeat it the following year. You have Megatron having a better fantasy season than last year. I would easily take the under on 2012 fantasy points compared ro 2011 fantasy points.

'Bayhawks said:

Johnson is a TD machine; since his rookie year, only Randy Moss has caught more receiving TDs among WRs (and that includes Moss' record-breaking 1st year in NE). But his TD rate last year was 17%, much higher than his career average of 12%, and higher than the career averages of Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and TO. Even though CJ is incredibly talented, it's not reasonable to expect him to continue to produce receiving TDs at such a high rate, so I dropped his TD rate (slightly) to 15%. 12/80= 15%.

Click to expand...

It's reasonable to assume Calvin's TD rate would be much closer to his 2011 mark, which not coincidentally was his first full year with Stafford, than it would be to his career numbers with putrid QB play.It's pretty clear Matthew Stafford put this offense into the upper echelon in the NFL. I doubt the Detroit Lions will be reverting back to the Dan Orlovsky days any time soon.

'David Yudkin said:

'Ministry of Pain said:

Just slot him WR1 on every draft board and be done with it. The projections on this player do not matter.

100/1750/15TD

Click to expand...

Life is never that simple. If that were the case for Johnson, he would have ranked as the #1 WR every year he's played. Yet last year was the only time he ranked as the top WR.I am not saying he shouldn't be considered the top fantasy receiver, only that most times things don't work out as planned. He may very well end up as #1 again this year, but very few receivers have had seasons like he had last year and even fewer repeat it the following year. You have Megatron having a better fantasy season than last year. I would easily take the under on 2012 fantasy points compared ro 2011 fantasy points.

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of people not just myself but a lot of folks feel Calvin is on a trajectory to be one of the greatest WRs in the history of the game. He was one of the biggest talents at WR to ever come out of college. He has not disappointed and has shown upside almost beyond anyone else currently playing in the NFL. He is as close to a Randy Moss we have seen since well...Randy Moss. And his teammates say he looks even bigger and quicker. He is almost impossible to cover unless you commit a PI penalty. If you are going to start off with a WR in the 1st, this selection gives you the flexibility to then load up at a couple other spots before hitting WR again in say the 4th 5th 6th rounds areas. He has the ability to win football games for your team, he can cover up a lot of mistakes at other spots. I can't think of another WR I would rather have as my WR1 going into the season, it's not even close. This is the type of upside that owners are craving when they take guys like Julio Jones and AJ Green who are both now going top5 which is insane...well actually they might hit those spots. Calvin has the skills and ability to outclass the league, his team is going to throw the football all the time, it's a recipe for explosiveness and owners love to watch this guy play. You must understand why folks go nuts over this guy right? You see his immense talent or do you see some flaws in his game?

'Grahamburn said:

'Bayhawks said:

Johnson is a TD machine; since his rookie year, only Randy Moss has caught more receiving TDs among WRs (and that includes Moss' record-breaking 1st year in NE). But his TD rate last year was 17%, much higher than his career average of 12%, and higher than the career averages of Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and TO. Even though CJ is incredibly talented, it's not reasonable to expect him to continue to produce receiving TDs at such a high rate, so I dropped his TD rate (slightly) to 15%. 12/80= 15%.

Click to expand...

It's reasonable to assume Calvin's TD rate would be much closer to his 2011 mark, which not coincidentally was his first full year with Stafford, than it would be to his career numbers with putrid QB play.

Click to expand...

How much closer would you assume it's going to be? Last year, it was 17%. His career average was 12%. I projected it to be 15% for 2012.

'Bayhawks said:

'Grahamburn said:

'Bayhawks said:

Johnson is a TD machine; since his rookie year, only Randy Moss has caught more receiving TDs among WRs (and that includes Moss' record-breaking 1st year in NE). But his TD rate last year was 17%, much higher than his career average of 12%, and higher than the career averages of Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and TO. Even though CJ is incredibly talented, it's not reasonable to expect him to continue to produce receiving TDs at such a high rate, so I dropped his TD rate (slightly) to 15%. 12/80= 15%.

Click to expand...

It's reasonable to assume Calvin's TD rate would be much closer to his 2011 mark, which not coincidentally was his first full year with Stafford, than it would be to his career numbers with putrid QB play.

Click to expand...

How much closer would you assume it's going to be? Last year, it was 17%. His career average was 12%. I projected it to be 15% for 2012.

Click to expand...

I'm not going to get into another debate over semantics with you. Let's just say I don't agree with assuming it's reasonable to think his TD rate is going to go down.

'Ministry of Pain said:

'David Yudkin said:

'Ministry of Pain said:

Just slot him WR1 on every draft board and be done with it. The projections on this player do not matter.

100/1750/15TD

Click to expand...

Life is never that simple. If that were the case for Johnson, he would have ranked as the #1 WR every year he's played. Yet last year was the only time he ranked as the top WR.I am not saying he shouldn't be considered the top fantasy receiver, only that most times things don't work out as planned. He may very well end up as #1 again this year, but very few receivers have had seasons like he had last year and even fewer repeat it the following year. You have Megatron having a better fantasy season than last year. I would easily take the under on 2012 fantasy points compared ro 2011 fantasy points.

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of people not just myself but a lot of folks feel Calvin is on a trajectory to be one of the greatest WRs in the history of the game. He was one of the biggest talents at WR to ever come out of college. He has not disappointed and has shown upside almost beyond anyone else currently playing in the NFL. He is as close to a Randy Moss we have seen since well...Randy Moss. And his teammates say he looks even bigger and quicker. He is almost impossible to cover unless you commit a PI penalty. If you are going to start off with a WR in the 1st, this selection gives you the flexibility to then load up at a couple other spots before hitting WR again in say the 4th 5th 6th rounds areas. He has the ability to win football games for your team, he can cover up a lot of mistakes at other spots. I can't think of another WR I would rather have as my WR1 going into the season, it's not even close. This is the type of upside that owners are craving when they take guys like Julio Jones and AJ Green who are both now going top5 which is insane...well actually they might hit those spots. Calvin has the skills and ability to outclass the league, his team is going to throw the football all the time, it's a recipe for explosiveness and owners love to watch this guy play. You must understand why folks go nuts over this guy right? You see his immense talent or do you see some flaws in his game?

Click to expand...

I disregard most camp talk as idle fodder. How many guys at this time each year are in the best shape of their lives, have never looked better, and are going to get 3,000 yards rushing or receiving? That happens every year, and few if any of the people perform any better.Since you clearly ignored what I posted before, it's a safe bet that the Lions are not going to throw 666 passes again and their RB corps will not be inviting members of the crowd to suit up because of the rash of debilitating injuries to RBs again. Both those won't help Johnson any.

But since you brought up Randy Moss . . . let's compare the two. Maybe Megatron will be as good or better. But Moss has played 13 seasons and hit 1500 receiving yards ONCE in his career. You project Johnson for 100 receptions. Moss has had TWO seasons with 100 receptions. How about 15 TDs in a season? He accomplished that 4 times. That means in his 9 other seasons he averaged 9 TD a year.

Maybe Johnson is as good as Jerry Rice. Rice DIDN'T catch 100 balls in 16 seasons. And he DIDN'T have 1,500 receiving yards in 16 seasons. And he DIDN'T catch 15 TDs in 15 seasons.

Bottom line, even comparing Johnson to two of the greatest receivers to play the game, the likelihood of a 100-1500-15 season in any of the categories is slim, let alone 100-1750-15.

Yes, I agree that if anyone can do it, Johnson can. And he would be the most likely candidate to have a season like that. But I have seen Johnson going 1-5 OVERALL, and he pretty much needs to have a season like that to justigy drafting him there.

'Grahamburn said:

'Bayhawks said:

'Grahamburn said:

'Bayhawks said:

Johnson is a TD machine; since his rookie year, only Randy Moss has caught more receiving TDs among WRs (and that includes Moss' record-breaking 1st year in NE). But his TD rate last year was 17%, much higher than his career average of 12%, and higher than the career averages of Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, and TO. Even though CJ is incredibly talented, it's not reasonable to expect him to continue to produce receiving TDs at such a high rate, so I dropped his TD rate (slightly) to 15%. 12/80= 15%.

Click to expand...

It's reasonable to assume Calvin's TD rate would be much closer to his 2011 mark, which not coincidentally was his first full year with Stafford, than it would be to his career numbers with putrid QB play.

Click to expand...

How much closer would you assume it's going to be? Last year, it was 17%. His career average was 12%. I projected it to be 15% for 2012.

Click to expand...

I'm not going to get into another debate over semantics with you. Let's just say I don't agree with assuming it's reasonable to think his TD rate is going to go down.

Click to expand...

You're welcome to your belief, but it's also fair to understand that CJ's TD rate in 2011 was one of the 10 best single-season rates in the modern era, and that most of those WRs didn't improve, or even maintain that rate, in the following season.

'David Yudkin said:

'Ministry of Pain said:

'David Yudkin said:

'Ministry of Pain said:

Just slot him WR1 on every draft board and be done with it. The projections on this player do not matter.

100/1750/15TD

Click to expand...

Life is never that simple. If that were the case for Johnson, he would have ranked as the #1 WR every year he's played. Yet last year was the only time he ranked as the top WR.I am not saying he shouldn't be considered the top fantasy receiver, only that most times things don't work out as planned. He may very well end up as #1 again this year, but very few receivers have had seasons like he had last year and even fewer repeat it the following year. You have Megatron having a better fantasy season than last year. I would easily take the under on 2012 fantasy points compared ro 2011 fantasy points.

Click to expand...

I believe a lot of people not just myself but a lot of folks feel Calvin is on a trajectory to be one of the greatest WRs in the history of the game. He was one of the biggest talents at WR to ever come out of college. He has not disappointed and has shown upside almost beyond anyone else currently playing in the NFL. He is as close to a Randy Moss we have seen since well...Randy Moss. And his teammates say he looks even bigger and quicker. He is almost impossible to cover unless you commit a PI penalty. If you are going to start off with a WR in the 1st, this selection gives you the flexibility to then load up at a couple other spots before hitting WR again in say the 4th 5th 6th rounds areas. He has the ability to win football games for your team, he can cover up a lot of mistakes at other spots. I can't think of another WR I would rather have as my WR1 going into the season, it's not even close. This is the type of upside that owners are craving when they take guys like Julio Jones and AJ Green who are both now going top5 which is insane...well actually they might hit those spots. Calvin has the skills and ability to outclass the league, his team is going to throw the football all the time, it's a recipe for explosiveness and owners love to watch this guy play. You must understand why folks go nuts over this guy right? You see his immense talent or do you see some flaws in his game?

Click to expand...

I disregard most camp talk as idle fodder. How many guys at this time each year are in the best shape of their lives, have never looked better, and are going to get 3,000 yards rushing or receiving? That happens every year, and few if any of the people perform any better.Since you clearly ignored what I posted before, it's a safe bet that the Lions are not going to throw 666 passes again and their RB corps will not be inviting members of the crowd to suit up because of the rash of debilitating injuries to RBs again. Both those won't help Johnson any.

But since you brought up Randy Moss . . . let's compare the two. Maybe Megatron will be as good or better. But Moss has played 13 seasons and hit 1500 receiving yards ONCE in his career. You project Johnson for 100 receptions. Moss has had TWO seasons with 100 receptions. How about 15 TDs in a season? He accomplished that 4 times. That means in his 9 other seasons he averaged 9 TD a year.

Maybe Johnson is as good as Jerry Rice. Rice DIDN'T catch 100 balls in 16 seasons. And he DIDN'T have 1,500 receiving yards in 16 seasons. And he DIDN'T catch 15 TDs in 15 seasons.

Bottom line, even comparing Johnson to two of the greatest receivers to play the game, the likelihood of a 100-1500-15 season in any of the categories is slim, let alone 100-1750-15.

Yes, I agree that if anyone can do it, Johnson can. And he would be the most likely candidate to have a season like that. But I have seen Johnson going 1-5 OVERALL, and he pretty much needs to have a season like that to justigy drafting him there.

Click to expand...

You ignored what I wrote too...I said it does't matter what you project just slot him WR1. The 100/1750/15 is just for S&G after I posted that. My point is don't waste time with projections for him, either take him whenever it's time for the 1st WR to come off the board and be done with it.

Other players I won't waste a lot of time on projections include Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, no reason to waste a lot of time on projections for the top top guys at their positions.

Completely irrational Madden Curse post - I am truly avoiding CJ.

If CJ goes, so goes the Detroit Lions. That sounds so perfectly like a Detroit story.

I love the guy, but I am letting someone else draft him. Strictly for superstitious reasons.

I have him off my board and Detroit players downgraded.

I take back anything negative I ever said about Johnson. Over his last 16 games played: 122-2199-11.

'Grahamburn said:

'Ilov80s said:

'Grahamburn said:

Was 2011 Calvin's ceiling?

Click to expand...

No way. He is the mist gifted WR since Moss with a stud young QB in a pass first offense. Calvin's ceiling is 1900 and 20. I don't think he gets there, but 1600 and 16 is a lock if he stats healthy

Click to expand...

It was a somewhat rhetorical question. I'm a firm believer in regression after a huge season unless that player is Calvin Johnson. He's simply unstoppable, and the Lions haven't made any significant changes to suggest that their offensive philosophy is changing in any way. Calvin really started to dominate even more than he had been earlier in the year during those final 4 games of the Lions' season. He had 36 receptions, 771 yards, and 6 TDs in just those games. 3 of them over 200 yards. That production isn't sustainable, but it seemed like Calvin and Stafford took it to another level at the end of the year. How much of that will carry over into 2012? Jerry Rice's single season yardage record is 1,848. Calvin would need to average 115.6 yards per game to break it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall.

Click to expand...

The only thing I got right all year. Congratulations, Calvin.