Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Ben Roethlisberger Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

I’ve long thought Big Ben has been one of the more chronically underappreciated FF players in all of the NFL. For whatever reason, be it that people still have in their mindset that Pittsburgh is a run first team, or that BB doesn’t profile as a prolific QB…he always outperforms his ADP IMO.

His 16 game season average over the last 3seasons is as follows:

4421 Passing Yards

24 TD’s

12 INT’s

8.24 YPA

125 Rushing Yards

1 TD

That has earned Big Ben a late 8th round ADP, or currently 5 spots ahead of Jay Cutler. Let’s also review what has occurred these last 3 seasons.

- 4-game suspension in 2010.

- Complete turnover of core WR’s (leading WR’s in 2008 were Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes). Now – Mike Wallace/Antonio Brown

- Terrible pass protection by O-Line

Yet, he’s still been incredibly productive over the last three seasons on a per game basis which shows a certain degree of resiliency. Now, the cloud hanging over the Steelers offense is the change in OC, from Arians to Todd Haley. I’m not sure I get this reasoning in terms of this being a bad thing for the PIT passing offense. I know that Haley was a run-centric HC with the Chiefs. But he had the backfield to execute such a run-heavy scheme…plus, Matt Cassel almost required being protected in this manner. With ARI, he threw the ball 600 times/season when he had a deficient run game and veteran passer. With Mendenhall doubtful to be ready by the start of the season, who can take on such a load? Isaac Redman? You’re not going to overwork him although he’ll be a solid contributor as an RB1. But bottomline – PIT simply doesn’t have the horses and RB depth to be a 50/50 runass team. Not to mention that as the Steelers defense gets older and hence less productive, the need t=for the Steelers to put points up on the board will increase.

So Roethlisberger should be in line to throw the ball at least 550 times again in 2012. And with an 8.24 YPA…I’m bullish on Big Ben having a big year. The bug aboo for Roethlisberger has been avoiding injury. Last year, his ankle/feet took a pounding and it’s clear the Steelers placed an emphasis on protecting Big Ben by drafting his LT/LG combo potentially for the remainder of his career in DeCastro/Adams.

The thing I love about BB is you can draft him a round ahead of his ADP and still feel optimistic about feeling like you made a value pick. Honestly, I would draft him as early as Round 5-6, but you just don’t need to. Assuming he stays healthy, I'm predicting a career year.

Prediction: 356 Completions, 552 Attempts, 4576 Passing Yards, 27 TD’s 10 INT’s; 40 Rushes 159 Rushing Yards, 2 TD’s.

After Ben's 32 TD performance on only 404 attempts, I was avoiding him like the plauge in drafts because I perceived him to be a QB on a running team who just got lucky. That proved to be a good move despite the 16% increase in pass attempts the next year (only 17 TD). However, he's been a value play ever since then as the Steelers have make a quick shift to a passing team. In the last 5 years, here are his att/gm:

2007: 26.9

2008: 29.3

2009: 33.7

2010: 32.4

2011: 34.2

I specifically targeted Ben last year and I'll be even more locked in on him this year, as he is being drafted as QB15. I was excited to get a guy who was a lock for 4k yards last year and I'm even more excited this year given his weapons. Wallace, Brown, and Sanders look like a top 5 trio. I recently read Waldman talking about Heath Miller as a TE with elite talent that is underutilized due to the OC keeping him in to block, but Haley has mentioned possibly featuring him. So the potential for 4 productive, talented receiving options should have everyone excited rather than sleeping on a guy who finished QB12 last year with an offensive line in shambles. That line should be revamped in 2012, giving Ben more time and forcing him to throw on the run less frequently.

540 att (x64% = 346 comp) x 8.2 ypa = 4428 yds 26 TD 13 INT, 30 rush x 3.0 = 90 yds, 1 TD

3900 yards

30 tds

18 picks

Anybody got any insight into the pass/run split with Haley? Haven't seen much of Heath Miller in the passing game as promised.