Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Matt Schaub Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

I would think Schaub would warrant significant discourse. Remember, this was a guy that was considered one of the best quarterbacks to target for a number of years, because he didn't require a pick in the first three rounds but had a reasonable shot at 4,000 yards passing and 25+ TDs. But then Schaub got hurt last year, and the Texans thrived with a new attacking defense and a powerhouse rushing attack. This year, in spite of being assured Schaub will be a full go for the start of training camp, he's been a forgotten man in drafts, and is being drafted as a low end QB2. That could mean one of two things -- he's one of the better values at the position this year, OR, the Texans new offensive balance has forever changed Schaub's paradigm. Which do you think best describes his outlook?

I'm a huge Matt Schaub fan, having followed him at UVA and owned him in many leagues for several years. In 2009, he was the key to a couple of fantasy championships. Last year, he was mostly just another guy up till his injury. Here are his per-game numbers leading up to and since his breakout season:

2008: 277 yds/game, 1.37 TDs, 34.5 attempts

2009: 298 yds/game, 1.82 TDs, 36.4 attempts

2010: 273 yds/game, 1.5 TDs, 35.8 attempts

2011: 248 yds/game, 1.5 TDs, 29.2 attempts

Foster's ascension to fantasy superstar might overshadow the fact that in 2008, Steve Slaton put up 1600 total yards in the same offense. Although Foster was obviously a monster, Slaton provided a pretty good running threat himself. In 2009, the RBs were a disappointing ever-changing committee, which lead to a loooot of downfield passing and big yards. In 2010, Schaub still put up pretty good numbers with the ascension of Foster. In 2011, his numbers really dropped. In my eyes, the real reason for Schaub's decline last year wasn't Arian Foster; it was Ben Tate.

For the first time, Houston had a really good second runner who let them grind out games and comfortably rack up rushing yards and 1st downs. Tate's 175 carries were by far the most of any Texans' 2nd-leading-runner under Kubiak. I think they want to run, and I think they now have the personnel that really let them do that.

Here's the thing, though; 3900 and 24--his per-game forecast out to a whole season--would still be the 11th highest yardage total and 10th highest TD total among QBs. The problem is that it's such a big drop from the currently elite players. So, at QB14/15 territory, if you think a healthy Schaub can still give you that, he's very nice value--a strong backup and a good-enough starter if needed, albeit one who still leaves you looking pretty far up in a 12-team league.

All that said, the Texans draw a tough schedule this year, playing against the NFC North. They also hope to have Andre Johnson around for more than 7 games, which would probably drive the passing numbers up, too. So, I'm going to project a slight improvement in Schaub's performance given Johnson, and a small bump in attempts to account for probably needing to bomb away against those tough opponents.

315/500, 4100 yds, 23 TD, 12 INT. At his draft position, certainly a bargain, but I do think my prediction there is fairly close to his upside. If Tate and Foster are healthy, the Texans will easily be running 30+ times/game. In short: I'll be targeting him because of the excellent value he presents, but might try to find someone else under the radar to hopefully get me close to the stratospheric Brees/Brady/Rodgers/Stafford type numbers. Roethlisberger/Schaub could be a good round 8/round 9 combo if you can pull it off, though that might be a bit too much too invest in QB that early.