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Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Eli Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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Eli is being way overrated this year thanks to his 5k yards last season. The 2011 Giants went 9-7 and Eli led 8 game winning drives- 7 of them were 4th Q comebacks. For comparison Eli had 6 GW drives in 48 games from 2008-2010. Basically they were behind or even in almost every single game they played which elevated his passing statistics and even though he passed for 50 more attempts and 1k more yards than 2010 he had 1 less TD (counting rushing).

This season the Giants have lost their best receiving TE and Mario Manningham and replaced Ballard with a guy who has produced better as a blocker than a receiver so far and MM with a late 2nd rounder. They also drafted a RB in the first round and Bradshaw should be healthier than last season.

In addition the Giants defense was poor for almost the whole season giving up 25 pts/game but turned it on late giving up only 14 pts/game over their last 2 regular season games + all 4 playoff games. Those 6 teams were all in the top half of the NFL in scoring in the regular season and included the #1 and #3 teams.

If the Giants improve their running game and their D plays better than 25pts a game there will be fewer come from behind situations, fewer passing attempts and fewer total yards. Long story short Eli reverts back much closer to his production in '09-'10 and puts up along the lines of 4,100 yards, 30 TD, 15 INTs.

 
Perhaps Eli does not repeat the yardage totals from last year.

However make no mistake the giants have gone from being a run first team to being Eli mannings team. Eli is special. And he commands that offense now. Jake Ballard is no better a reviewing threat than bennet. The system made him great not jake. Kevin boss is another perfect example of that. Manningham's production will be replaced by randle or hixon.

David Wilson was added as insurance for Bradshaw and Wilson is a great reciever out of the backfield.

I see no reason why Eli can't finish as a top 5 or 6 fantasy qb again this year.

Plus he is tough as nails, durable and doesn't miss games. I think 4500 yds, 35-40 Tds, and 10-15 ints sounds about rt.

Another bonus is his ADP. Let everyone else fawn over rodgers, newton, Brees, Brady and Vick in early rounds while you pile up on TE/wr/rb talent and then laugh all the way to the bank when you select Eli in round 6 or 7 as your qb.

 
"Jake Ballard is no better a reviewing threat than Bennet."

I disagree. Bennett put up basically nothing with a quality QB and never being a focus of the defense. He literally has never broken 70 yards receiving in a game and Boss' injury plagued, multiple QB season last year with the Raiders would have been Bennett's best season as a pro on a team that has passed for 4,000+ yards every season he was with them (ok 3,988 one year). Athletically there isn't any reason he can't be a receiver but at some point in his career you have to start discounting the fact that he won't make an impact there. 4 years is certainly enough to put significant doubt in my mind.

Meanwhile Hixon at 28 has been beaten up all career and has never hit 600 yards or even 3 TDs in a season.

35-40 TDs? Is he capable? Yes. Is it in the game plan? Highly unlikely. Eli attempted 50 more passes last season than the year before. Total number of red zone attempts? Exactly the same. Not just the same as 2010, but the same as 2009 when he had 80 fewer attempts. Even last season when they went heavily unbalanced toward the pass Manning didn't get his shots at the end zone.

Laughing all the way to the bank? Rivers, going 4 spots behind Manning, has passed for 600 more yards 12 fewer interceptions and accumulated 1 less TD over the past 3 years. Matt Ryan, going 9 picks later, put up as a 26 year old what would be Eli's 2nd best fantasy season. Rivers has missed 0 games in the last 4 years, Ryan 2. Its pretty unlikely that Eli is a "steal" in his slot. Hes going right where he should.

 
At what point do you start to change your perception about a player from being an uncanny producer who seems to be quite fortunate quite frequently, to one who might all of a sudden be one of the better QB’s in the NFL?

Eli, no matter what he accomplishes in his career, will always seemingly live in the shadow of Peyton. Perhaps it’s because of his bumbling type aw shucks nature compared to his brothers military style command of his offense and team. Even his Sunday Ticket ad portrays Eli as this Master of Clumsy. But in 2011, time after time, Eli came through when the Giants needed him most. And while the Giants two recent Super Bowl runs were remarkably similar in how they took flight, make no mistake…last years was led prominently by Eli.

And so you take his 2011 season in which he threw for close to 5000 yards and 30 TD’s and you figure if his name was Matthew Stafford, his FFC ADP would be higher than mid 6th round and 9th QB off the board? In a sense, despite what would have seemed like a game changing, perception changing season…FF owners are content to ‘settle’ for Manning again as their QB1. Understanding that Manning was the 13th rated QB in 2011 coming out of FFC, he’s moved past Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Matt Schaub and Josh Freeman since last year. That’s all. I mean why shouldn’t Manning be drafted ahead of where Tony Romo’s being drafted? Big Brother?

You might say that Stafford has Megatron…but Manning has Nicks & Cruz. Manning also got to his yardage total in 74 fewer attempts than Stafford. The flip side of that argument is that with Stafford…you know he’s putting it up 650 times. Eli…? Probably not, but it is interesting that people seem to believe in Stafford more than Eli despite the fact that Stafford has only recently reached this high level of production as well.

This is not meant to demean Stafford. Quite frankly, if given the choice between the two – I’d select Stafford as well. But is Stafford 4 rounds better than Eli? Eli’s rise has not been a one year in the making exercise. His YPA over the last 3 years has been a robust 7.96 (compared to Stafford’s 7.6). If the Giants throw but 500 times, Eli pretty much hits 4000 yards. If he attempts 550 passes – he’s at 4400. I would think that 550 pass attempts is the floor for Manning. While the Giants are excited about 1st round rookie David Wilson, they’ve lost a player in Brandon Jacobs who averaged 11.6 carries/game over the last 3 seasons. And while his role had diminished, from a reliability standpoint, no RB on the Giants comes close to being the reliable producer that Manning and the passing game have become…even Bradshaw because of his chronic foot woes. And one thing that Jacobs was a producer inside the 5, even if he wasn't the sole option here. But with Jacobs gone, might NYG find the passing game to be a more palpable option in this part of the field?

Is Victor Cruz going to hit 1500 yards receiving again? Probably not…certainly there were some spectacular plays that included some large gains on catch and runs in 2011. But overall, Manning is now the captain of this ship and certainly the offense. He’s not some 6th round pick made good because talent evaluators missed something. He’s a former #1 overall pick. While the Giants may not wind up repeating, there’d be no more surprising development in the NFL than if the wheels fell off this offense. And guys like Eli are the reason why it’s starting to make more and more sense to take your QB late despite some of the most prolific potential production we’ve seen at the top of the draft at this position ever.

Prediction: 356 Completions, 567 Attempts, 4496 Passing Yards, 30 TD’s 14 INT’s

 
Does anyone have any concerns about starting Eli this week with Nicks being out? I read CAR has good corners. I'd like to hear peoples thoughts on this... :popcorn:

 
Love how there were less than 5 responses total to this thread and Eli is going to end up throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs and be a top 5 QB.

 
Love how there were less than 5 responses total to this thread and Eli is going to end up throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs and be a top 5 QB.
love how you bumped the thread and ignored the part specific for this week. :confused:
 
Love how there were less than 5 responses total to this thread and Eli is going to end up throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TDs and be a top 5 QB.
love how you bumped the thread and ignored the part specific for this week. :confused:
I didn't know I needed to answer your question to post in this thread. Anyway, for this week I see him throwing 40+ times. The Giants running game is weak and their defensive secondary can be exploited by Cam. Points will be scored. I think you have to play him based on the sheer volume of throws. 300 yards and 2 TDs seems like a baseline.
 
haha touche! thanks for the response though. For this game, I think Eli's going to air the ball, I just don't know how well he will produce against their defense

 
A struggling Saints team put up 325 yds 1TD/ 2INTs passing against them. Most of it went to Sproles. The argument is the Panthers held Colston to 3 catches for 49 yds so the CBs are very good. The Saints are struggling though and Brees does spread the ball around.

The Giants don't have a proven player with Sproles abilities. So that limits them doing that unless Brown or Wilson surprise by being targeted a lot in the passing game. I expect the Panthers will drop into coverage to stop the pass and dare the Giants to beat them with the RBs. Bennett could do well since Panthers have been vulnerable to TEs.

The Giants get their starting LT, Beatty, back full-time, he's been playing part of the time to ease him back from a sciatic nerve issue. The guy that was playing LT, Locklear, moves to the more familiar RT spot. He did well at LT and switched to RT when Diehl went down. The Giants didn't give up a sack on the 51 drop-backs after Diehl went out. Neither Beatty or Locklear are known for being skilled run blockers.

Ultimately I expect Eli to pass for about 300+ yards, 1-2 TDs, 1-3 INTs.

 
Buellllllller? :confused:
The guy is the most underrated player in the league, Nobody posting on the winning Qb of the Sb just proves it. Everyone "admits" he's good but really doesn't trust it. Even in fantasy, he's the first and only guy that's thrown for 500 yards in a game this season.He came back versus the Bucs and if Romo doesn't make a huge 3rd and 11 to Ogletree with 2 mins to play, he would have came back to beat the Cowboys too. Best 4th quarter/money/ playoff Qb in the game today.
 

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