Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Matt Ryan Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

After his meteoric rise as a rookie, before it was en vogue for rookie QB’s to have much of an impact, it feels as if Ryan’s play or the perception of his play has leveled off. The comparisons to Tom Brady & Peyton Manning have died down. An absolute bricks he’s laid in the post-season have taken a good degree of luster off of him as well.

But he put up his best statistical season of his career in 2011 and with a more experienced Julio Jones, a new OC in Dirk Koetter and what would seem to finally be a move away from having the offense defined by a power run game…this could be the year that Ryan ascends to an elite, or close to elite level of FF QB.

Last season, Ryan started off slow. A notorious film rat & preparer…Ryan appeared to have been adversely affected by the lockout as he had been one to take advantage of the OTA & mini-camp season. As such Ryan’s first 7 games had him playing perhaps the worst football of his career. Aside from a 4 TD game against PHI, Ryan struggled to make plays and his YPA was still in the ugly 6.6-6.7 range…(a range he’d actually occupied in 2009 & 2010 – the difference was that Ryan also took care of the football in those seasons with low INT rates. But 8 INT’s in 7 games can’t justify that low YPA). But it was in that 7th game when Ryan’s ankle looked like it was broken that seemed to be a turning point in his season. He came back from the locker room and led the Falcons to a road win in DET when the Lions were 5-1.

From that point forward over the next 9 games, Ryan put up the following numbers:

193 Completions

314 Attempts

2494 Passing Yards

20 TD’s

4 INT’s

7.94 YPA

Granted, some of the opponents were the doormats of the 2011 season (JAX, IND, TB). But with that said, it was truly the first consistent stretch of dominant production from Ryan during his career. As someone who watches the Falcons weekly, the traits that defined this stretch were:

1) Better utilization and an increased confidence in Julio Jones. Ryan has been reluctant in the past to throw guys open or allow his WR to make a play on the ball. With Julio he realized that his physical skills warranted this. Also, early in the season it felt like the Falcons were almost forcing Jones into the game plan. The latter half of the season, his usage on focus in the passing game seemed more natural.

2) More consistency from Roddy White. IMO, Roddy struggled with the idea of not being the alpha dog of the WR corps at the outset of the season. While he didn’t look disinterested, he did look frustrated and at times, I think his focus waned. This led to bad drops. Roddy was better in the latter half of the season. However, at no point in the season did I feel he was playing at his 2010 level.

3) Better pass protection. Ryan was absolutely clobbered the first 2 games of the season and IMO, this shook his confidence in his O-Line. They were able to stem the negative tide and performed respectably the rest of the way, but I think Ryan stood stronger in the pocket during this stretch. RG was a particular weakness.

Now there is no doubt that Ryan has to bear the burden of a 0-3 playoff record. Quite frankly of his playoff losses, the 24-2 was the worst. The one where he looked completely overmatched. And I think the criticisms of him are fair in that regard. He won’t get a chance to truly address those demons until he starts performing in January. But in the interim, I think this is the season he starts making a statistical leap and starts looking like one of the more dangerous QB’s in the NFL instead of someone who has started to overstay his welcome in the up-and-comer category.

Prediction: 374 Completions, 588 Attempts, 4621 Passing Yards, 34 TD’s 12 INT’s

Ryan has statistically done just about everything the Falcons have asked. But his playoff woes are mounting, and he's starting to be exposed as a guy who senses pressure early, even when there isn't any. But fantasy owners don't really need to worry about that as long as he continues to deliver impressive raw numbers. Ryan seems to be pigeon holed as a low end fantasy QB1 this year, someone that you can "settle for" if you don't want to spend an early round pick on one of the elite players.

Is that how you see him?

How do you think Dirk Koetter will impact the Falcons offense? (I think it's going to pull the whole thing down a bit).

New OC Koetter with a bigger emphasis on vertical passing / screen passes.

Ryan's arm getting stronger and players saying there's much more zip on the ball (added 7 pounds of muscle).

First time for Julio to get a full offseason (should take over as #1 from Roddy White), Harry Douglas fully recovered from knee surgery.

I think Ryan finally steps up and takes things to the next level this season.

380 Completions, 600 Attempts, 4750 yards, 37 TD's, 11 INT's

'Jason Wood said:

Ryan has statistically done just about everything the Falcons have asked. But his playoff woes are mounting, and he's starting to be exposed as a guy who senses pressure early, even when there isn't any. But fantasy owners don't really need to worry about that as long as he continues to deliver impressive raw numbers. Ryan seems to be pigeon holed as a low end fantasy QB1 this year, someone that you can "settle for" if you don't want to spend an early round pick on one of the elite players.

Is that how you see him?

How do you think Dirk Koetter will impact the Falcons offense? (I think it's going to pull the whole thing down a bit).

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As one who watches every Falcon game, DK can't be worse on the Ryan figures than OC Mularkey was. I see a huge tick up for the offense as Douglas and Rogers will add to the looks with screens and over the middle targets. Mularkey was plain awful at play calling especially the last 3 seasons as he was predictable for the defense. Ryan was best the last 2 years at no huddle and audible- like a baseball ace pitcher continually shaking off the signs from a demented, aged catcher (Mularkey), a young Ryan knew a better play.With the addition of swings, screens and over the middles I see an increase in completions offset slightly by more deep play action potential in-completes.

400 comp/ 600 attempt/ 4500 yd/ 36 TD/ 13 int

Whoah. I thought I was high on Ryan this year until I read these responses. I was thinking of something along the lines of 4250 and 32 TDs.

At any rate he seems like a good bargain at his current ADP of 72 (QB 11).

I do wonder about that explosive 2nd half. It seems to have come against some atrocious defenses-IND, TB, NO x2, CAR. I have the same reservation about Julio Jones, who scored all of his TDs against those Ds (I think).

Also I've heard some conflicting things about Koetter, if anyone has any info on him to share I'd appreciate it. I know that Matt Waldman is not a fan.

'SexyRexy said:

Whoah. I thought I was high on Ryan this year until I read these responses. I was thinking of something along the lines of 4250 and 32 TDs. At any rate he seems like a good bargain at his current ADP of 72 (QB 11).I do wonder about that explosive 2nd half. It seems to have come against some atrocious defenses-IND, TB, NO x2, CAR. I have the same reservation about Julio Jones, who scored all of his TDs against those Ds (I think).Also I've heard some conflicting things about Koetter, if anyone has any info on him to share I'd appreciate it. I know that Matt Waldman is not a fan.

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It's not so much Koetter is the "next coming", it's that Mularkey was that bad the last 3 seasons. THE most predictable OC in play calling and NO halftime or 4th quarter adjustments. DK will take the Falcon personnel and jerk them up to the status quo of other passing teams. Brian Van Gorder was the master of bend, bend some more and maybe not break defense. With Nolan in there to right that ship, Ryan should have a lot more time to run plays per game.Believe me it is that simple..

Ryan really stands out to me as a great option for those who want to wait until the mid rounds to get a QB. Hes been around 30 tds for two seasons now and keeps his INTs low. He plays in a dome with great WR in an offense that has come and out and said they will throw more and has a favorable playoff schedule. My question is why is he not ranked higher?

Atlanta threw the ball the 4th most in the NFL last year yet you hear people talking about them throwing more and running less. I'm not sure I buy it. Maybe the OC can squeeze more productivity out of Ryan, although his 7.4 ypa was a marked improvement upon his last two years (6.5 ypa each). If he reverts to Matty Mediocre then he's not going to be helping anyone's fantasy team even if ATL does throw the ball 37 times a game again.

Anytime you switch offensive coordinators it makes projections even more difficult than they already were. There's a chance Matt Ryan (QB11) takes a step forward, but I'd rather gamble on Big Ben who has recently rocketed up the ADP chart to QB12. If I miss there, I'd probably rather wait a couple rounds and pair up Cutler with Palmer or Fitzpatrick. With the possibility of the Ravens' defense being more porous this year, maybe they throw the ball more and Flacco regains his 7.4 ypa form and surprises everyone. I guess what I'm saying, is that you probably won't regret missing out on Matt Ryan this year.

575 attempts @ 7.0 ypa = 4025 yds 28 TD 17 INT, 75 rushing yds 1 TD

'FF Ninja said:

Atlanta threw the ball the 4th most in the NFL last year yet you hear people talking about them throwing more and running less.

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Interesting info, thanks for posting. When I looked up Ryan I was surprised at what seemed to be a high # of attempts.Wondering if 2011 is his established level of peak performance give or take. It's certainly not bad, easily low end QB1 or better-plus he seems to be very durable/reliable. On one hand maybe Julio Jones is a Moss type talent who will elevate his QB. On the other they already throw a lot and Ryan did a lot of his damage against terrible defenses.I had Ryan as an early potential breakout candidate but I think I'm now leaning toward him being pretty good and worth his draft position but not a great value play.

Guys, I am watching the Falcons/Ravens replay. Matt Ryan is the TRUTH. He looks poised to peek his head into the top tier if not enter the bottom of it if he can play like this in 2012. I can't put my finger on why, but I think he is finally delivering on what I thought he could be before 2011. He is just making nasty passes, and he's spreading it around nicely. And it helps that his receiving corps is just oozing talent, Julio looks like he is going to be absolutely nasty this season. Again, I don't know exactly why and one pre-season game is the smallest of samples, but I am loading up at RB and maybe a WR but not walking out of the 5th without this guy on my rosters, I think I'm willing to reach a round ahead to guarantee that I get him, I'm in full on blinders mode with Ryan now.