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Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Donald Brown Player Page

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[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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I see him getting at least 15 carries a game and 4 targets a game. As much as people hate him because of disappointment in the past, he was the best back last season, Addai is gone, and I don't see any of the guys who are left taking that many opportunities from Brown. People think he is an outside speed back because they saw some of his highlights where he had long runs of that sort, but he runs inside well too.

250 carries, 4.2 ypc, 1050 yards; 8 TDs; 40 receptions; 392 yards receiving.

 
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I thought hed catch alot of balls originally, but now that mewelde moore is on the team, im not so sure. He needs those numbers to have flex value imo.

 
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
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Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
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if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
 
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'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
Click to expand...
Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
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if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
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I do not have a strong opinion either way about Brown, but using ypc as the sole criteria for a tough match up is a bit misleading. The same team may have had a poor pass defense leading to fewer rush attempts as teams take advantage of low hanging fruit. Couldn't it be just as likely that Brown produces in the pass game on check downs? I would be surprised if MMorre has anything left in the tank. He certasinly didn't have an impact in Pittsburgh.As to the specific teams listed above, I suspect that the Jags defense slips somewhat with loss of Tucker, as do the Fish after losing Nolan. A quick check of last years stats shows the Pats ranked 31 in total yards given up. You have an interesting definition of "tough."

;)

 
Well, if brown's going to be the qb as well then the pats probably do turn into a good match up

And ypc means yards per carry, so fewer Carries is fairly irrelevant

 
'32 Counter Pass said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
Click to expand...
Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
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if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
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I do not have a strong opinion either way about Brown, but using ypc as the sole criteria for a tough match up is a bit misleading. The same team may have had a poor pass defense leading to fewer rush attempts as teams take advantage of low hanging fruit. Couldn't it be just as likely that Brown produces in the pass game on check downs? I would be surprised if MMorre has anything left in the tank. He certasinly didn't have an impact in Pittsburgh.As to the specific teams listed above, I suspect that the Jags defense slips somewhat with loss of Tucker, as do the Fish after losing Nolan. A quick check of last years stats shows the Pats ranked 31 in total yards given up. You have an interesting definition of "tough."

;)
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M. Moore won't be the passing back. Brown can catch the ball. I see RB2 with RB1 upside that you can get in the 7th or 8th round.1100 yds/rush 45 rec 400 yds/rec 10 TD

 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
Click to expand...
Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
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if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
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statistics are always contextual but are rarely used that way. i'd worry more about whether or not you like brown's chances at keeping the job. i wouldn't consider schedule for even 10 seconds. that said, i think brown could be a useful RB3 this year. maybe something like 1100 total yards, 6 TDs, 35 rec. nothing special, but good bye week guy.

 
We are talking about a guy in the 8th round who is going to get the call at least 200 times, if he stays healthy. Why would you not roster him? That's incredible value.

 
I like him more than most. I'm not convinced he'll ever be a very good/great NFL RB, but I think he made real strides last season and think he's by far the best RB on the roster. I think he should be good for 230 carries, 1040 yds, 7 TDs, 35 catches 205 yds, 1 TD.

He's one of the guys I'll be looking at closely if I go WR heavy in the first few rounds, as I think he could provide decent #2 RB value at a fraction of the cost.

 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
Click to expand...
Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
Click to expand...
if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
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In my experience, trying to project strength of schedule is one of the least accurate projections in fantasy football. It is one thing to project how one player will do; but 11? There are too many variables. So, I really don't find this very meaningful. But given that, I don't see any games against Pitt, BA, or SF.Even using last year's stats, he plays against 7 Defenses that were among the 16th worst in total rushing yards surrendered: CLE, Buff; KC; Tenn twice; Det; NE. And GB and NYJ were pretty average. The best two rush Ds were SF and BA and IND doesn't play them.

The other thing we don't know is how much he will be used in passing game. But if he gets a lot of dump off passes, easy to imagine with a rookie QB, then he could still have good fantasy days playing against teams that have a good rushing D.

 
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yeah, because gb probably has a crap offense this year.

just about every player in the draft gets picked where they do largely on past performance, so I think I'll stick to facts and reality over crystal balls.

there's nothing wrong with brown in the 8th, considering the volume of touches he'll get --- I just don't think he's buried treasure, and ffcalc currently has him pegged in the 6th and trending up.

wouldn't surprise me if he crept into the 5th.

 
Brown is a player that I think savvy fantasy owners really need to scrutinize. In a time when we're all struggling to find quality running backs given the tendency toward committee approaches, Brown profiles as one of a small handful of mid-round options that COULD (emphasis on COULD) deliver far better numbers than his draft position suggests. The reluctance to raise him higher is understandable. The Colts are in flux, with new management, coaches, a new offensive system and, of course, major changes on offense including a new franchise quarterback. Young teams in new systems with young coaches are not necessarily the best places for fantasy owners to look for value.

But, the Colts management really didn't do much this offseason to add to the RB position. While you could argue the Colts had bigger areas of need, it certainly wouldn't have been difficult for them to bring in another body or two for competition sake, but they didn't. Brown hasn't done a lot -- at least consistently -- to live up to his former 1st round billing, but he has shown flashes, and the college tape made a lot of people excited about his NFL potential.

Watch Brown in camp and take particularly notice of whether the coaches indicate his ability to handle pass protection. If they do, I could see this as being one of those perfect options if you're eyeing a Matt Waldman-esque upside down drafting plan for 2012.

 
Delone Carter proved nothing last year, and Mewelde Moore is a speciality back who will only eat into potential passing game totals a bit. I'll admit I don't know anything about Vick Ballard, but nothing suggests to me that he could take over.

The team, theoretically, should run the ball plenty with a rookie QB to ease his load. Brown is the best back on the roster, never fumbles, and is a lock for early down work to start the year. If he performs, he'll get plenty of carries. I'm sure we've all heard the stat about taking out the 80 yard run he had last year (YPC drops from 4.8 to 4.2), and nothing in his past is too inspiring, but by the time the 7th round rolls around is there any running back you'd rather have? Going around him are Hillis, Spiller, Tate, Ridley, Stewart, and DeAngelo Williams. None of them have close to the established role and guaranteed touches that Brown has. He's not a sexy pick, but he's a good one.

240 carries for 984 yards (4.1YPC), 33 receptions for 303 yards. 6 TDS.

 
Based on Brown's ADP and expected workload, fantasy owners are severely undervaluing him this year.

Anybody you can get outside the top 20+ RBs, who looks primed for a shot at 250 carries or even more, is a bargain. This type of pick is how titles are won - the only players in the same area as Brown that I have to debate picking in every mock draft are Beanie Wells and also Jonathan Stewart, who has an ADP low enough that you may be able to get him in the next round anyway. Players like Donald Brown allow you to load up early on the QB/WR/TE studs without falling too far behind the 8-ball.

Brown's situation:

1. Former first round pick who has flashed some talent.

2. Was behind entrenched veteran Joseph Addai for the Manning era.

3. Looked decent last season - he did well against the poor defenses and not so well against the good ones. The difference between a top RB and a solid RB2 is this exactly - while the top RBs also do less than their standard production against the good defenses, they typically have higher floors game to game and absolutely feast on the bad defenses. A majority of production for the top RBs has, historically, come against bottom half rush defenses.

4. Why does that matter? Because that puts Brown's performance last season into perspective. He looks to be a solid RB2 type of player - with a 4.2 ypc or so average on 240+ carries (I project around 16-20 per game) and perhaps 3 receptions per game out of the backfield: I expect Luck to checkdown more often than Manning ever did, but I also expect Moore to eat into those with 2-4 or so receptions of his own each game. I get that average from looking at last season and his career, as well as typical ypc numbers for all RBs each season. There's certainly room for improvement there if Luck is able to spread out a defense, but I'd rather err on the side of conservatism.

As such, here's what I have for Brown:

16 carries per game = 256 carries

4.2 ypc

256 X 4.2 = 1075 yards rushing (67 per game)

3 rec per game = 48 rec

48 rec x 9 ypr (his career rate is just below 10, but with more checkdowns I expect a little bit less than that) = 432 yards rec (27 ypg)

As such, he's looking at 94 yfs/game

I expect a decent amount of TDs, not a ton, so we're going to say 8 combined - if he's the focal point of the running game, I think he can get 7 from there, and he probably snares one receiving too.

To recap: 256 carries, 1075 yards, 48 receptions, 432 yards, 8 TDs total

 
As a Colts fan one thing I noticed last year when Brown had his best games towards the end of the season is the Colts switched their offense and added a fullback. Supposedly he had always run with a fullback in the big east and was not comfortable making his reads without one in front of him. After the draft when the Colts ended up taking Allen and Fleener they traded or cut all of their fullbacks and it appears the will be using a two tight end set primarily. I have a strong gut feeling Pagano and Grigson will be looking to give the reigns over to the back THEY drafted in the 5th round, Vick Ballard.

 
'quasta19 said:
As a Colts fan one thing I noticed last year when Brown had his best games towards the end of the season is the Colts switched their offense and added a fullback. Supposedly he had always run with a fullback in the big east and was not comfortable making his reads without one in front of him. After the draft when the Colts ended up taking Allen and Fleener they traded or cut all of their fullbacks and it appears the will be using a two tight end set primarily. I have a strong gut feeling Pagano and Grigson will be looking to give the reigns over to the back THEY drafted in the 5th round, Vick Ballard.
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My understanding is that they will move the TE around and sometimes position him in the backfield as a blocker, like a FB. I doubt that they are going to trust putting everything on the shoulders of their rookie QB, two rookie TEs, and a rookie fifth round HB. Normally a team takes a back in the fifth round to add depth, not to draft a starter. Occasionally such players do emerge, but rarely in their rookie years. Someone did a study here a few years ago of success rate of HBs in different rounds. My recollection is that fifth round HBs have a success rate of less than 5%.
 
'quasta19 said:
As a Colts fan one thing I noticed last year when Brown had his best games towards the end of the season is the Colts switched their offense and added a fullback. Supposedly he had always run with a fullback in the big east and was not comfortable making his reads without one in front of him. After the draft when the Colts ended up taking Allen and Fleener they traded or cut all of their fullbacks and it appears the will be using a two tight end set primarily. I have a strong gut feeling Pagano and Grigson will be looking to give the reigns over to the back THEY drafted in the 5th round, Vick Ballard.
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that logic may look good on paper, but its not the reality of the NFL.
 
'Dr. Octopus said:
'quasta19 said:
As a Colts fan one thing I noticed last year when Brown had his best games towards the end of the season is the Colts switched their offense and added a fullback. Supposedly he had always run with a fullback in the big east and was not comfortable making his reads without one in front of him. After the draft when the Colts ended up taking Allen and Fleener they traded or cut all of their fullbacks and it appears the will be using a two tight end set primarily. I have a strong gut feeling Pagano and Grigson will be looking to give the reigns over to the back THEY drafted in the 5th round, Vick Ballard.
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that logic may look good on paper, but its not the reality of the NFL.
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Here is the link to the study of draft position and success %. 5th round RBs have a 10% chance of having a decent career. Now, I think the number who actually produce big numbers their rookie season must be even smaller.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=592260&st=0&p=13163384&hl=draft%20pick%20and%20rookie%20and%20success%20percentage&fromsearch=1entry13163384

 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
Click to expand...
Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
Click to expand...
if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
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do you really put that much stock into how defenses played last year, with different personnel and many with different coaches/coordinators?I never let strength of schedule factor into my decisions on drafting a player unless it's such a close call b/w 2 guys with fairly equal value/skillset/situation (which is close to never). Defensive performances outside of maybe baltimore vary so greatly from year to year.

Look at Philly last year. Everyone thought they would be a beast defense. Everyone thought NE would be much better than they were. how bout GB? Their defense SUCKED after being a monster in 2010.

Furthermore, if you would have decided not to draft stevie johnson last year bc he faces darell revis twice you would have missed out on some nice performances.

Good players will get theirs over the course of a season, regardless of schedule.

Whether Brown is a good player or not is a whole different question

I believe the jury is still out on him. For the right price, I will be targeting him in all of my drafts though, on the simpe basis that I believe he is talented and he is in a good situation and will likely get a lot of touches. Thats enough for me.

 
I'm regularly seeing him go higher and higher in mocks. Whereas he was available in the 8th, now he's creeping up into the 6th, and just saw him drafted by a human not a computer in mid 5th. I like the value but I think it's disappearing.

 
'karmarooster said:
I'm regularly seeing him go higher and higher in mocks. Whereas he was available in the 8th, now he's creeping up into the 6th, and just saw him drafted by a human not a computer in mid 5th. I like the value but I think it's disappearing.
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Taking him in the mid 5th is crazy. I got him in the 9th in my dynasty start up a few weeks ago, which I considered very good value.
 
I've been mocking for my 14 team - all the mocks I have done at FFCalc have him go no later than mid 5th, and pretty much always in the 4th.

 
'karmarooster said:
I'm regularly seeing him go higher and higher in mocks. Whereas he was available in the 8th, now he's creeping up into the 6th, and just saw him drafted by a human not a computer in mid 5th. I like the value but I think it's disappearing.
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I think if you believe in him, then the value doesn't really go away until round 2/3. Remember when Foster's ADP was creeping into the 4th and 5th rounds? Now, I in no way expect Brown to prodice close to Foster's #1RB season, but if he's a fringe RB1, top 15 type guy...I'd take it in the 3rd, you know?
 
His value was that he is an average RB on a bad team, but figures to be a 3-down back, and is one of the last 'starters' drafted, either before or after James Starks. He doens't have the breakout potential to justify more than a 6th round pick in 12 team leagues, IMO.

 
'karmarooster said:
His value was that he is an average RB on a bad team, but figures to be a 3-down back, and is one of the last 'starters' drafted, either before or after James Starks. He doens't have the breakout potential to justify more than a 6th round pick in 12 team leagues, IMO.
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Friendly wager that he outperforms his draft spot by at least 5? e.g. if his ADP ends up RB25, and he finished RB20 or better, I'd win the bet. If he finishes RB21 or worse there, you'd win it.I'll take a 3-down starter looking at 250 touches in the 3rd, 4th, really the 5th, and I'd be ecstatic to get him in the 6th. Same with Starks, to a slightly lesser extent. My goal this year is top QB/WR/TE positions paired with Brown, Starks, and JStew - I usually have to sacrifice the TE...
 
'Instinctive said:
'karmarooster said:
I'm regularly seeing him go higher and higher in mocks. Whereas he was available in the 8th, now he's creeping up into the 6th, and just saw him drafted by a human not a computer in mid 5th. I like the value but I think it's disappearing.
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I think if you believe in him, then the value doesn't really go away until round 2/3. Remember when Foster's ADP was creeping into the 4th and 5th rounds? Now, I in no way expect Brown to prodice close to Foster's #1RB season, but if he's a fringe RB1, top 15 type guy...I'd take it in the 3rd, you know?
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You can't find a top 15 guy in the third?
 
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'rickyg said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'Clifford said:
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
@CHI MIN JAC GB @NYJ CLE @TEN MIA @JAC @NE BUF @DET TEN @HOU @KC

how many of those games look favorable?
Click to expand...
Min - tied for 6th fewest ypc allowed at 3.9JAX 2x - gave up 3.8 ypc last year, 4th lowest in league (brown had 22 carries for 77 yds against them in 2 games in 2011)

Gb - should be ahead 24-0 by 2nd quarter, which is why they had the 5th fewest rush att against them last year -- mewelde moore probably takes over as passing back

Cle - there's one

Mia - nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year, but they allowed 3rd fewest ypc -- a bit less than jax, and tied for 3rd fewest rush td allowed at 8

ne - much stronger run def than you might think, and should be up early and often (brown + addai = 27 carries for 80 yds last year)

Det - see gb -- tied with gb for 5th fewest rush td allowed at 10
Click to expand...
if those are the favorable games brown owners are in for a long year.
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do you really put that much stock into how defenses played last year, with different personnel and many with different coaches/coordinators?
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I don't know where you come up with that from my list.miami definitely changed coaching and scheme as hinted at by my comment

nolan is gone and this is a new scheme, so it's hard to judge by last year

is that the many?

to answer your question, I don't look at schedule, outside maybe fantasy playoffs, for any established stud, or hot sleeper that I really like.

if I had to choose between mccoy and foster, for example, I might factor fantasy playoffs, but outside that I just pencil in production.

however, for marginal guys that I have to flip a coin on, I'll look at schedule for warts or whatever the opposite of a wart is.

brown's workload is a big plus, his schedule is a wart.

to assume that you can project every offensive player's stats with any accuracy, while all defenses remain a big mystery is kind of ridiculous.

Look at Philly last year. Everyone thought they would be a beast defense.
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this is kind of lazy analysis, to me, and right off the bat I see you are one of these guys who hides behind 'everybody', which makes your conclusions kind of suspect.philly had a mediocre run defense in 2010, and 'everyone' thought they had issues at lb and s --- while many might have expected a pretty good pass defense, I doubt 'everyone' thought they had a beast run defense, and I play idp, so I spend a lot of time reading about that kind of commentary in the idp forum -- your expectations might have differed from general public to some degree.

for the record, they tallied 50 sacks, which is probably about what many expected.

Everyone thought NE would be much better than they were.
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I certainly did, but I'm not 'everyone'.due in large part to the lockout and their failed haynesworth experiment NE started off mostly 4-3.

once they jettisoned haynesworth they migrated back to more 3-4 and their run defense was pretty good in the second half -- not terrible,

how bout GB?
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well, seeing as how I commented on GB in the post you quoted, you can pretty much just read that.
Furthermore, if you would have decided not to draft stevie johnson last year bc he faces darell revis twice you would have missed out on some nice performances.
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I think it's probably ill advised to draft a guy based off 2 games over the course of a season, but if you sat a bunch of studs for some wr2 types because of revis you might have done alright.this is the kind of comment that makes me believe you are really reaching to prove some point you read elsewhere, and figured you'd parrot an argument you saw somewhere.

the bottom line with brown is that he is probably a jag who might be an accumulator due to circumstantial workload.

the problem is, a lot of people are peeing themselves due to an 8th round adp, which is fiction, and some damage he did in a couple perfect storm situations that he might not see much of next year.

at the end of the year his 70 ypg might add up to a decent figure, but on any given week there are probably better options on your roster that will be on your bench because you took brown in the 4th and locked him in.

people are getting carried away because they see him as buried treasure -- but I don't think he's buried, and I don't think he's treasure.

he's basically a guy who's maybe an ok pick in the 5th based on nothing more than expected touches, if you don't mind passing on gates, hernandez, austin, harvin, maclin, demaryus, helu, greene, lloyd, etc.

 
'karmarooster said:
His value was that he is an average RB on a bad team, but figures to be a 3-down back, and is one of the last 'starters' drafted, either before or after James Starks. He doens't have the breakout potential to justify more than a 6th round pick in 12 team leagues, IMO.
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If you think he is a 3 down back, even on a bad team, that has to put him in the top 20 RBs. There are only 32 starting RBs, and over half are in a heavy RBBC.
 
'az_prof said:
'karmarooster said:
His value was that he is an average RB on a bad team, but figures to be a 3-down back, and is one of the last 'starters' drafted, either before or after James Starks. He doens't have the breakout potential to justify more than a 6th round pick in 12 team leagues, IMO.
Click to expand...
If you think he is a 3 down back, even on a bad team, that has to put him in the top 20 RBs. There are only 32 starting RBs, and over half are in a heavy RBBC.
Click to expand...
to be fair about it, forte had about 200 carries for 1k yards and 4 td last year and is generally going pretty well ahead of brown, and I think brown could hit those totals pretty easily.
 
'Instinctive said:
'karmarooster said:
His value was that he is an average RB on a bad team, but figures to be a 3-down back, and is one of the last 'starters' drafted, either before or after James Starks. He doens't have the breakout potential to justify more than a 6th round pick in 12 team leagues, IMO.
Click to expand...
Friendly wager that he outperforms his draft spot by at least 5? e.g. if his ADP ends up RB25, and he finished RB20 or better, I'd win the bet. If he finishes RB21 or worse there, you'd win it.I'll take a 3-down starter looking at 250 touches in the 3rd, 4th, really the 5th, and I'd be ecstatic to get him in the 6th. Same with Starks, to a slightly lesser extent. My goal this year is top QB/WR/TE positions paired with Brown, Starks, and JStew - I usually have to sacrifice the TE...
Click to expand...
Bumping this for karmarooster
 
his adp has risen rapidly. the mock site has moved him way up on their main board. I would expect him to go in the mid 6th at worst come draft time. still likely value maybe...

 
'Instinctive said:
'Instinctive said:
'karmarooster said:
His value was that he is an average RB on a bad team, but figures to be a 3-down back, and is one of the last 'starters' drafted, either before or after James Starks. He doens't have the breakout potential to justify more than a 6th round pick in 12 team leagues, IMO.
Click to expand...
Friendly wager that he outperforms his draft spot by at least 5? e.g. if his ADP ends up RB25, and he finished RB20 or better, I'd win the bet. If he finishes RB21 or worse there, you'd win it.I'll take a 3-down starter looking at 250 touches in the 3rd, 4th, really the 5th, and I'd be ecstatic to get him in the 6th. Same with Starks, to a slightly lesser extent. My goal this year is top QB/WR/TE positions paired with Brown, Starks, and JStew - I usually have to sacrifice the TE...
Click to expand...
Bumping this for karmarooster
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I mean, I like him in the 7th round, late 6th, depending on the WRs available (definitely not taking him over Decker or Antonio Brown), but at his current ADP of RB30 I'd say he's a good value. But yeah, I'll take your wager, I don't see how he ends up higher than RB20. Actually, he might end up somewhat higher based on accumulated stats but no way is he top 20-25 in PPG. I'll wager you a high five he's lower than RB25 PPG, and lower than RB20 overall.
 
NFL Network's Mike Lombardi stated repeatedly on Inside Training Camp Live Tuesday that rookie Vick Ballard will prove the Colts' best running back option this season
 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
NFL Network's Mike Lombardi stated repeatedly on Inside Training Camp Live Tuesday that rookie Vick Ballard will prove the Colts' best running back option this season
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Is Lombardi at the Indianapolis camp watching? Or what is he basing this prediction upon?
 
while the Colts will have a rookie QB this year, he is much better than what they had last year. Still have WRs, and 2 TEs that will be good enough. The Colts wont be awful, I would expect at least one win vs Jville or Tenn, and at least another upset along the way. 6-10 is reasonable, and I think Brown can have a nice year. Nothing that will blow your mind, but I could see some 100 yd games and a few games with multiple TDs.

Compare that with whoever you want, pick him in whatever round, but at the end of the season he could be a top 20 back.

 
'quasta19 said:
As a Colts fan one thing I noticed last year when Brown had his best games towards the end of the season is the Colts switched their offense and added a fullback. Supposedly he had always run with a fullback in the big east and was not comfortable making his reads without one in front of him. After the draft when the Colts ended up taking Allen and Fleener they traded or cut all of their fullbacks and it appears the will be using a two tight end set primarily. I have a strong gut feeling Pagano and Grigson will be looking to give the reigns over to the back THEY drafted in the 5th round, Vick Ballard.
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Yes, there are so many 5th round RB's who step right in and become "the guy" during their first years in the league... better avoid Brown at all costs.. :loco:
 
'Jason Wood said:
Brown is a player that I think savvy fantasy owners really need to scrutinize. In a time when we're all struggling to find quality running backs given the tendency toward committee approaches, Brown profiles as one of a small handful of mid-round options that COULD (emphasis on COULD) deliver far better numbers than his draft position suggests. The reluctance to raise him higher is understandable. The Colts are in flux, with new management, coaches, a new offensive system and, of course, major changes on offense including a new franchise quarterback. Young teams in new systems with young coaches are not necessarily the best places for fantasy owners to look for value. But, the Colts management really didn't do much this offseason to add to the RB position. While you could argue the Colts had bigger areas of need, it certainly wouldn't have been difficult for them to bring in another body or two for competition sake, but they didn't. Brown hasn't done a lot -- at least consistently -- to live up to his former 1st round billing, but he has shown flashes, and the college tape made a lot of people excited about his NFL potential.Watch Brown in camp and take particularly notice of whether the coaches indicate his ability to handle pass protection. If they do, I could see this as being one of those perfect options if you're eyeing a Matt Waldman-esque upside down drafting plan for 2012.
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:goodposting:
 
I'm more interested in the difference in offensive systems from last year to this year. What can we expect running wise from Indy? Will we still see a bunch of stretch plays? Who's the OC? What's his forte running wise?

TIA

 
Obviously this is all about Luck. The RB that gives him the best chance of staying protected will get the majority of the work, even if another back is more talented. One would have to think that with no other talented competition, the vet Brown would be that guy. I'm definitely interested because I think the Colts may surprise some people.

 
Colts beat writer Phil Taylor confirms that HC Chuck Pagano has "has made it clear that [RB Donald] Brown is No. 1" on the team's depth chart. Delone Carter was Brown's biggest threat for the lead role, but he's had a disappointing offseason. Brown, meanwhile, has continued to improve throughout the spring and summer. While he managed just 2 yards on 2 carries in the preseason opener, he took a screen pass 63 yards to the house. The guy clearly has big-play ability. He had a 72-yard catch in his rookie season and then busted off a franchise-record 80-yard TD run last year. Brown figures to lose some short-yardage and goal line looks to Carter and/or Vick Ballard this season, but he's a good bet for 15+ touches per game. We like him at his current late-6th-round ADP.
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http://www.draftsharks.com/Sharkbites.aspx
 
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