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Adrian Peterson & Toby Gerhart, RBs, Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Adrian Peterson & Toby Gerhart, RBs, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Adrian Peterson Player Page

Player Page Link: Toby Gerhart Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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ADP is going to be majorly overrated on draft night

Gerhardt will be the steal

I will be shocked it ADP (as great as he is) reaches 1,000 yards or 6 tds

I think Gerhardt will hit both the above #'s. In fact I think Garhardt might have double digit td's :eek:

 
I'm hoping they place him on the PUP for the 1st 6 so their not even tempted to play him too early. If they use him right he'll be great for a playoff push.

 
ADP is going to be majorly overrated on draft night

Gerhardt will be the steal

I will be shocked it ADP (as great as he is) reaches 1,000 yards or 6 tds

I think Gerhardt will hit both the above #'s. In fact I think Garhardt might have double digit td's :eek:
Much like Redman, I expect their year end numbers to be better than their positional ADP, but how much good does that do you if he's splitting time during the FF playoffs?I like Gerhart's game and I think he'll be awesome (RB1 ppg numbers) for 6 weeks if they put Peterson on the PUP, but if they do that I think his ADP will shoot from his current RB40 to somewhere in the 20's. If you play in a strictly points league then he'll probably be worth it because he'll amass some numbers if ADP misses time, but I'd rather invest in a guy like Donald Brown (RB38), Stevan Ridley (RB37), or Blount (RB41) who could be year long RB2 contributors rather than a rent-a-RB1 who turns into a backup when I need him most.

As for the RB position in general, I think Ponder takes a step forward which leads to more scoring opps than last year and maybe clears the box out a bit on 1st and 2nd downs. I'm going to speculate that AP does indeed hit the PUP list and they give him the majority of the carries when he returns, but a combination of caution, production, and Gerhart's play will lead to more of a split than last year. I'm thinking Gerhart gets close to 20/gm thru 6 games and then there is a 15/8 split going forward. Obviously, any projections are going to be pretty wild guesses...

TG (16g): 200 x 4.4 = 880 yds 8 TD, 30 rec x 8 = 240 yds 1 TD

AP (10g): 150 x 4.2 = 630 yds 6 TD, 15 rec x 7 = 105 yds 0 TD

 
I've been surprised by the lack of concern folks are showing for Peterson's knee. Just because he says he'll be on the field, we're taking him at his word? This is a guy who suffered damage to multiple ligaments, and is the workhorse of his team. I know he's awesome. I know he's a fast healer. And I know the Vikings want to get him back into the fold. But why is everyone so comfortable that Peterson will be back to 100%, particularly in 2012? I'm HIGHLY skeptical, and so in a way I'm happy to see his average draft position as high as it is. I actually hope it continues to rise, because it'll make my decisions easier knowing that someone else in my leagues is targeting someone I most certainly won't.

 
I'm hoping they place him on the PUP for the 1st 6 so their not even tempted to play him too early. If they use him right he'll be great for a playoff push.
I just don't see this happening. Assuming AP doesn't get suspended for the Houston incident, I think he'll be dressed and ready for week 1.That said, even being the beast he is, his production will not approach what we've come to expect from this guy. I would expect the coaching staff to work him back slowly, with maybe 10-12 carries/game up through the week 11 bye. At that point, if he's still healthy and the team has a chance at the playoffs, I would expect his carries to increase to the 14-18/game range. However, it is far more likely that the Vikes will be also-rans by the week 11 bye, at which point you would hope they don't ride him too hard in a lost year.All this said, I wouldn't care to draft either of these guys unless the price was just way too good to pass up. I expect both to finish in the 800-900 yard, 6-8 TD range with Gerhardt maybe adding another 150/1 receiving. And IMO that is best case scenario.
 
I am trying to move AD in my keeper league. There are just too many red flags here. There is also no such thing as a quick healer when it comes to multiple ligament tears and this type of serious injury. It was a major reconstructive surgery and there are many factors to consider here. It's wishful thinking to assume AD will be exactly what he was before, or that he will jump right back in game 1 as the Vikings workhorse RB. He's already past the average midpoint in a stud RB career. In a best case career scenario at the age of 27, this could have been his peak year without the injury. But at the start of the season, he'll be less than 9 months removed from one of the worst possible injuries a RB can have. Toby Gerhart is a reliable RB2. The Vikes have an inexperienced QB and a revamped O-line. I don't even care about his recent arrest, but with all the other red flags I have him ranked as RB15 right now and I think that's being optimistic. We won't know where he's really at until the preseason games, if he plays in them at all.

 
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Gerhart is a workhorse. IF Ponder can become a better thrower this year it will help set up Gerhart.

I just have a feeling someone in my leagues will be all over Gerhart before I feel comfortable pulling ther trigger.

And I'm not trusting APB's knee either.

 
'Herb said:
'KellysHeroes said:
I'm hoping they place him on the PUP for the 1st 6 so their not even tempted to play him too early. If they use him right he'll be great for a playoff push.
I just don't see this happening. Assuming AP doesn't get suspended for the Houston incident, I think he'll be dressed and ready for week 1.That said, even being the beast he is, his production will not approach what we've come to expect from this guy. I would expect the coaching staff to work him back slowly, with maybe 10-12 carries/game up through the week 11 bye. At that point, if he's still healthy and the team has a chance at the playoffs, I would expect his carries to increase to the 14-18/game range. However, it is far more likely that the Vikes will be also-rans by the week 11 bye, at which point you would hope they don't ride him too hard in a lost year.All this said, I wouldn't care to draft either of these guys unless the price was just way too good to pass up. I expect both to finish in the 800-900 yard, 6-8 TD range with Gerhardt maybe adding another 150/1 receiving. And IMO that is best case scenario.
I moved ADP / Gerhart in my dynasty for CJ Spiller / S Hill, however in my contract league I purchased ADP and Gerhart for a total of $80 out of $500, I think its a great deal and will slap ADP with a 3 yr contract. It works out pefectly for me as I have DMC / Brown both ending their contracts this yr in 2013 I'll have the combo of ADP / Gerhart / T-Rich. This is pretty much the only case I would go after ADP during the off-season.
 
I've been surprised by the lack of concern folks are showing for Peterson's knee.
I'm curious where you're getting this from. Everyone who posted so far is down on him. There are only 9 posts in this thread so far (amazing in itself, since this is a HUGE storyline this year), which tells me there isn't a "lack of concern" but rather a lack of expectations.Every "expert rankings" you look at has Peterson anywhere from the 15th to the 20th-ranked RB, which is even more telling given that the crop of RBs this year is woefully thin, IMO. Am I optimistic he'll be just fine? Not really. But this isn't your run-of-the-mill RB. This guy is (was?) a machine. If he thinks he's going to be out there at 100% on opening day - which he stated yesterday - who am I to doubt him? He's earned the right to show us that he can't do it. And with the low price it'll cost you on draft day, it might be worth the gamble.

 
Close to being cleared for action according to live updates from Viking camp yesterday. I think he starts week 1.

 
I like AP because come the 2nd half you should have yourself a top 5 player (at worst) you got in the late 2nd round area. If you are a good owner you can overcome a slow start. I tend to try to think I can make the playoffs regardless, and I am willing to take a risk on AP knowing that I will have a stud rb1 when I really need him. However, it is definitely a must (imo) to get Gerhart if you do take that 2nd round investment on AP. Also, AP is a monster. This is one of the few guys I'd bet against even with the injury he had.

 
'Badgers Fan said:
I like AP because come the 2nd half you should have yourself a top 5 player (at worst) you got in the late 2nd round area. If you are a good owner you can overcome a slow start. I tend to try to think I can make the playoffs regardless, and I am willing to take a risk on AP knowing that I will have a stud rb1 when I really need him. However, it is definitely a must (imo) to get Gerhart if you do take that 2nd round investment on AP. Also, AP is a monster. This is one of the few guys I'd bet against even with the injury he had.
He wasn't top 5 at any point last season before he got hurt. Top 10 player easily, but I wouldn't bank on Top 5 production, not in PPR anyway.
 
If ADP looks sharp in the preseason, does he sneak back into the first round?
:popcorn: I'm starting to think ADP might be a pretty nice value in the late 2nd round, but it looks like his ADP is skyrocketinginto early 2nd with all the positive news. For folks drafting this weekend (like myself) you're going to have to spend a 2nd round pick if you want him. That's a bit of a gamble but it could pay off pretty nicely. IMO I think ADP is looking at a ceiling of RB5 or so given Gerhart's presence.

IMO I'll be hoping he falls to me in the 3rd. I'm optimistic about his chances to get back to a starting role in the first week or two...

 
hate to be a nervous nancy, but not a fan to hear his docs are telling him to only run in a straight line but he says whatevs.

what's the risk of re-injury taking minor cuts in practice before he's fully healed/cleared for side-to-side movement?

as much as i admire peterson's work ethic/drive to get back on the field for a bad team, i have to say i'd rather he sat out the first few weeks of the season and came back 100%.

 
If ADP looks sharp in the preseason, does he sneak back into the first round?
:popcorn: I'm starting to think ADP might be a pretty nice value in the late 2nd round, but it looks like his ADP is skyrocketinginto early 2nd with all the positive news. For folks drafting this weekend (like myself) you're going to have to spend a 2nd round pick if you want him. That's a bit of a gamble but it could pay off pretty nicely. IMO I think ADP is looking at a ceiling of RB5 or so given Gerhart's presence.

IMO I'll be hoping he falls to me in the 3rd. I'm optimistic about his chances to get back to a starting role in the first week or two...
I haven't heard a peep other than he didn't feel sore in limited reps. There's not enough evidence of him returning to form to put a second round price on him at this point.
 
If ADP looks sharp in the preseason, does he sneak back into the first round?
:popcorn: I'm starting to think ADP might be a pretty nice value in the late 2nd round, but it looks like his ADP is skyrocketinginto early 2nd with all the positive news. For folks drafting this weekend (like myself) you're going to have to spend a 2nd round pick if you want him. That's a bit of a gamble but it could pay off pretty nicely. IMO I think ADP is looking at a ceiling of RB5 or so given Gerhart's presence.

IMO I'll be hoping he falls to me in the 3rd. I'm optimistic about his chances to get back to a starting role in the first week or two...
I haven't heard a peep other than he didn't feel sore in limited reps. There's not enough evidence of him returning to form to put a second round price on him at this point.
Adrian Peterson Says He’s Been Told Not to Make Cuts, But is Cutting Anyway
 
I'm very surprised with Peterson's ADP and with the overall lack of discussion about him.

I see him going early second in mocks and I just can't see it.

Had he suffered his injury early in the season it'd be a different story but just 8 months out from major knee surgery involving multiple ligament reconstruction. And this is a bigger RB whose game is based on running and cutting hard and violently.

I'm having trouble deciding where to place him in my rankings but at the price he's going it doesnt really matter. I won't be targeting him.

 
I've been surprised by the lack of concern folks are showing for Peterson's knee.
I'm curious where you're getting this from. Everyone who posted so far is down on him. There are only 9 posts in this thread so far (amazing in itself, since this is a HUGE storyline this year), which tells me there isn't a "lack of concern" but rather a lack of expectations.Every "expert rankings" you look at has Peterson anywhere from the 15th to the 20th-ranked RB, which is even more telling given that the crop of RBs this year is woefully thin, IMO. Am I optimistic he'll be just fine? Not really. But this isn't your run-of-the-mill RB. This guy is (was?) a machine. If he thinks he's going to be out there at 100% on opening day - which he stated yesterday - who am I to doubt him? He's earned the right to show us that he can't do it. And with the low price it'll cost you on draft day, it might be worth the gamble.
Wow, was that an understatement. The man is not human.Leading the NFL in rushing.

:bow:

 
This was not the year to gamble on ACL injuries leading to backup's getting a chance. I thought Gerhart would be a great fill in for Mathews during the first 2 weeks. Wamp wamp.

But good for him. Never had ADP on a team, but always enjoyed watching him play. Didn't want to believe this injury would keep him down this year, but I had to let my rational side prevail so I refused to spend a 2nd round pick on a guy whose knee got blown up at the end of last season.

 

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