Chris "Beanie" Wells & Ryan Williams, RBs, Arizona Cardina (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Chris "Beanie" Wells & Ryan Williams, RBs, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Chris Wells Player Page

Player Page Link: Ryan Williams Player Page

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I don't know, has Ryan Williams done anything to warrant being lumped into the Beanie Wells spotlight? I could see it if this was last year but Williams is coming off a major injury, hasn't played a regular season snap and is built more like a 3rd down back. Beanie isn't sexy, but he'll finish the season around 1K total yards and 10TDs.

'greggorymac said:

I don't know, has Ryan Williams done anything to warrant being lumped into the Beanie Wells spotlight? I could see it if this was last year but Williams is coming off a major injury, hasn't played a regular season snap and is built more like a 3rd down back. Beanie isn't sexy, but he'll finish the season around 1K total yards and 10TDs.

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Williams has done slightly less than Beanie did before last year. I think he belongs in this discussion.

'greggorymac said:

I don't know, has Ryan Williams done anything to warrant being lumped into the Beanie Wells spotlight? I could see it if this was last year but Williams is coming off a major injury, hasn't played a regular season snap and is built more like a 3rd down back. Beanie isn't sexy, but he'll finish the season around 1K total yards and 10TDs.

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Williams isn't built like only a 3rd down back. He's big enough to carry the load, Beanie just happens to be bigger.

Vs CAR 18 rushes, 90 yards. 4 receptions, 12 yards. 1 td.

At WAS 14 rushes, 93 yards, 1 td.

Dnp

Vs NYG 27 rushes, 138 yards, 3 tds.

At MIN 20 rushes, 60 yards, 1 td.

Vs PIT 12 rushes, 42 yards (knee injury)

At BAL 22 rushes, 83 yards, 1 td.

After that, with the exception of his 228 yards and a td against st louis, beanie was pretty pedestrian. But look at his numbers before the knee injury. They look like a true #1 rb.

The problem with beanie is the injury history. I get it. And he doesnt get a lot of catches - only ten total last year. But 393 yards and six tds in his first four games. That's five yards per rush. Or call it 518 total yards and 7 tds in his first six games, including the game he got injured and a game at baltimore. This guy can bring it when he's healthy. Yet people are hyping up kenny britt over his first two weeks, and putting beanie in an early grave because a second round pick with third down back skills coming off a season long knee injury looks alnost as good as he did last yea when he didn't have the starting job.

Is williams capable of taking over as the lead back? Sure. And beanie could get hurt again (of course, so could williams, who has missed sixteen games in his 16 game nfl career). So this is not a guy you want to spend a top 25 pick on. But when you start looking at the tier two running backs, trying to find a guy who can put up stud rb numbers at a discounted price, beanie is one of the first names you should look at.

The other nice thing with beanie is that fitzgerald may be great, but this team is going to have to use the running game to take pressure off ofwhichever qb they start. Even when beanie was playing poorly on a bum wheel late last year during their winning streak, he got 23, 27, 20, 15 and 15 carries (he also got 8 carries against san fran, and 14 against cinci in losses, while stephens-howling got 21 carries against seattle in week 17 with beanie on the bench). This team wants a lead back to run the ball and could easily give their lead back 300 carries (beanie had 245 carries in 14 games last year, and the lead back in the other two games got 17 and 21 carries, respectively).

The real issue with beanie, to me, is the risk that you lose him for some unknown amount of time. If that happens, you need another good back on your roster, and preferably one with some job security. I wouldn't pair beanie with, say, ridley, or jamaal charles, even though all of those guys have potential. I don't want to risk drafting three backs and ending up with none. But If I could get a stud rb early, or add beanie as part of a rbbc on a team with lots of talent elsewhere, id be thrilled to have beanie.

I know the rules of the thread are that I have to give projections, but it seems like guesswork with beanie due to the injury risk. I will assume a fully healthy year would be about 300 carries and 15 receptions for 1500 total yards and 14 tds, then discount it due to injury risk by about 20% for

240 carries

1100 rush yards

12 receptions

100 receiving yards

11 tds

'bostonfred said:

Vs CAR 18 rushes, 90 yards. 4 receptions, 12 yards. 1 td.At WAS 14 rushes, 93 yards, 1 td.DnpVs NYG 27 rushes, 138 yards, 3 tds.At MIN 20 rushes, 60 yards, 1 td.Vs PIT 12 rushes, 42 yards (knee injury)At BAL 22 rushes, 83 yards, 1 td.After that, with the exception of his 228 yards and a td against st louis, beanie was pretty pedestrian. But look at his numbers before the knee injury. They look like a true #1 rb. The problem with beanie is the injury history. I get it. And he doesnt get a lot of catches - only ten total last year. But 393 yards and six tds in his first four games. That's five yards per rush. Or call it 518 total yards and 7 tds in his first six games, including the game he got injured and a game at baltimore. This guy can bring it when he's healthy. Yet people are hyping up kenny britt over his first two weeks, and putting beanie in an early grave because a second round pick with third down back skills coming off a season long knee injury looks alnost as good as he did last yea when he didn't have the starting job. Is williams capable of taking over as the lead back? Sure. And beanie could get hurt again (of course, so could williams, who has missed sixteen games in his 16 game nfl career). So this is not a guy you want to spend a top 25 pick on. But when you start looking at the tier two running backs, trying to find a guy who can put up stud rb numbers at a discounted price, beanie is one of the first names you should look at. The other nice thing with beanie is that fitzgerald may be great, but this team is going to have to use the running game to take pressure off ofwhichever qb they start. Even when beanie was playing poorly on a bum wheel late last year during their winning streak, he got 23, 27, 20, 15 and 15 carries (he also got 8 carries against san fran, and 14 against cinci in losses, while stephens-howling got 21 carries against seattle in week 17 with beanie on the bench). This team wants a lead back to run the ball and could easily give their lead back 300 carries (beanie had 245 carries in 14 games last year, and the lead back in the other two games got 17 and 21 carries, respectively).The real issue with beanie, to me, is the risk that you lose him for some unknown amount of time. If that happens, you need another good back on your roster, and preferably one with some job security. I wouldn't pair beanie with, say, ridley, or jamaal charles, even though all of those guys have potential. I don't want to risk drafting three backs and ending up with none. But If I could get a stud rb early, or add beanie as part of a rbbc on a team with lots of talent elsewhere, id be thrilled to have beanie. I know the rules of the thread are that I have to give projections, but it seems like guesswork with beanie due to the injury risk. I will assume a fully healthy year would be about 300 carries and 15 receptions for 1500 total yards and 14 tds, then discount it due to injury risk by about 20% for240 carries1100 rush yards12 receptions100 receiving yards11 tds

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Great post. Beanie is a guy who scares me if he's not on my team and healthy.

'chewybip said:

Beanie is a guy who scares me if he's not on my team and healthy.

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It is scary how bad his knees are.

Nahhh, Williams doesn't belong.

'ratbast said:

Nahhh, Williams doesn't belong.

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I agree too.

'N Zone said:

'ratbast said:

Nahhh, Williams doesn't belong.

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I agree too.

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Put me down.

I do not like Beanie Wells. I don't want him on my team and I don't want him to be playing against me (like he was last year when he went off for 138 and 3 TDs).

From an actual thought process leading to a projection though...

The knee issue scares me. There is just a little too much ambiguity for me to believe that it was just the minor clean up described. On top of that we are talking about someone whose health has always been an issue. I don't think that he can give his owners a quality 250 carries and more importantly I think his coaching staff knows that. The return of Ryan Williams (presumably healthy and ready to go) and the ability of LaRod Stephens Howling as a 3rd down/receiving running back is simply not going to allow Beanie to get that many touches. Also, another quick point, Arizona --> NFC West --> San Fran twice. I know that's somewhat offset by two games against St. Louis, but I think we can all be sure that San Fran is going to be a tough run match up this year with a pretty good degree of certainty. When you throw in the fact that Beanie is so wildly inconsistent that you can't rely on him on a week to week basis, you have a running back that I want no part of.

175 Carries, 750 Yards, 10 TDs, 5 Receptions, 50 Yards

'WickedCanRest said:

I do not like Beanie Wells. I don't want him on my team and I don't want him to be playing against me (like he was last year when he went off for 138 and 3 TDs). From an actual thought process leading to a projection though...The knee issue scares me. There is just a little too much ambiguity for me to believe that it was just the minor clean up described. On top of that we are talking about someone whose health has always been an issue. I don't think that he can give his owners a quality 250 carries and more importantly I think his coaching staff knows that. The return of Ryan Williams (presumably healthy and ready to go) and the ability of LaRod Stephens Howling as a 3rd down/receiving running back is simply not going to allow Beanie to get that many touches. Also, another quick point, Arizona --> NFC West --> San Fran twice. I know that's somewhat offset by two games against St. Louis, but I think we can all be sure that San Fran is going to be a tough run match up this year with a pretty good degree of certainty. When you throw in the fact that Beanie is so wildly inconsistent that you can't rely on him on a week to week basis, you have a running back that I want no part of.175 Carries, 750 Yards, 10 TDs, 5 Receptions, 50 Yards

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So...you're afraid of Beanie's knees but not Williams' knee? I don't get that logic.

'whatadai said:

'WickedCanRest said:

I do not like Beanie Wells. I don't want him on my team and I don't want him to be playing against me (like he was last year when he went off for 138 and 3 TDs). From an actual thought process leading to a projection though...The knee issue scares me. There is just a little too much ambiguity for me to believe that it was just the minor clean up described. On top of that we are talking about someone whose health has always been an issue. I don't think that he can give his owners a quality 250 carries and more importantly I think his coaching staff knows that. The return of Ryan Williams (presumably healthy and ready to go) and the ability of LaRod Stephens Howling as a 3rd down/receiving running back is simply not going to allow Beanie to get that many touches. Also, another quick point, Arizona --> NFC West --> San Fran twice. I know that's somewhat offset by two games against St. Louis, but I think we can all be sure that San Fran is going to be a tough run match up this year with a pretty good degree of certainty. When you throw in the fact that Beanie is so wildly inconsistent that you can't rely on him on a week to week basis, you have a running back that I want no part of.175 Carries, 750 Yards, 10 TDs, 5 Receptions, 50 Yards

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So...you're afraid of Beanie's knees but not Williams' knee? I don't get that logic.

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No. I am definitely concerned about Ryan Williams. What I'm saying, and perhaps I didn't articulate it well enough, is that Williams' presence is going to significantly eat into Beanie's carries. Furthermore, the two of them together, I don't think that you get one playing the bellcow role which will take that every down burden off of both of them. For the record, I'm probably not drafting Ryan Williams either. I simply don't think this is an attractive backfield.

'WickedCanRest said:

The knee issue scares me. There is just a little too much ambiguity for me to believe that it was just the minor clean up described. On top of that we are talking about someone whose health has always been an issue. I don't think that he can give his owners a quality 250 carries and more importantly I think his coaching staff knows that.

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Beanie just gave you 245 carries. I don't think 250 is out of the realm of possibility.

The return of Ryan Williams (presumably healthy and ready to go) and the ability of LaRod Stephens Howling as a 3rd down/receiving running back is simply not going to allow Beanie to get that many touches.

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Williams is practically still a rookie, he's coming off a gruesome injury, and he's battling a guy for playing time that just had a real solid season. Beanie will probably be in for just about the same workload. If Williams is truly healthy he'll cut into the touches for LSH more than Wells.

Also, another quick point, Arizona --> NFC West --> San Fran twice. I know that's somewhat offset by two games against St. Louis, but I think we can all be sure that San Fran is going to be a tough run match up this year with a pretty good degree of certainty. When you throw in the fact that Beanie is so wildly inconsistent that you can't rely on him on a week to week basis, you have a running back that I want no part of.

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Didn't Wells play in the NFC West last season and face the 49ers twice? Just bench him in those matchups.

175 Carries, 750 Yards, 10 TDs, 5 Receptions, 50 Yards

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A 65 carry drop seems steep. I do think Williams presence could allow the Cardinals to give Beanie a breather more often, but that breather should result in a better yards per carry for Wells. Beanie is a great RB2 if you fill out the other positions on your roster in early rounds, which I'll be doing this season. How many 6th round RBs can you find with 250 carry and 10 TD potential? The bias against Wells has made him a value for two seasons now.230 carries for 1,012 yards, 20 receptions for 140 yards, and 11 TDs.

If he only had 245 carries WITHOUT competition last year, how could he have more carries with it?! The #2, #3, and #4 RBs in Arizona last year didn't COMBINE for 100 carries, and only had 30 receptions combined - for a GRAND TOTAL of 123 touches.

Beanie had 255 touches, over 2/3rds of the touches for the RB position in Arizona. I believe this was in the top 5 highest percentage of total touches of any RB in the league last year (it certainly was for carries, and I believe it was for total touches as well).

I also like to look at past drafts for a certain team to see what direction they are heading in, especially with draft picks in the first 3 rounds. In the past 3 years Arizona has drafted 2 WRs (including one in the 1st this past draft), a pass catching TE (Housler), and a RB (Williams) who is a better receiver than Beanie. They are looking to become more pass happy it seems, not more run happy.

Having seen Williams play in both high school and college ball, he's got talent. He's had plenty of time to get over his injury (which I understand was a very bad one), and he's apparently ahead of schedule if the reports are to be believed. He'll steal far more touches from Beanie than LSH, Smith and Taylor did last year. Combine that with injury/bad knee reports for Beanie himself....and things aren't looking good for the guy who's never had a full season healthy.....

220 carries, 4.4 YPC, 968 yards - 10 catches for 70 yards, 9 total TDs - of course that might be over 13 or 14 games.....

'matttyl said:

He's had plenty of time to get over his injury (which I understand was a very bad one), and he's apparently ahead of schedule if the reports are to be believed.

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The problem with the "plenty of time" comment is that sometimes players never come back from this type of injury. Reports are optimistic so maybe he'll make it all the way back, but there's a very real possibility that Ryan Williams will never be what he could have been had he not suffered this injury.

Beanie ran hard last year...

220 caries 1050 yards, 6 tds, 22 catches 180 yards

ryan will eat into beanie's carries 900 yards, 180 carries, 5 tds

15 catches 150 yards

'matttyl said:

If he only had 245 carries WITHOUT competition last year, how could he have more carries with it?! The #2, #3, and #4 RBs in Arizona last year didn't COMBINE for 100 carries, and only had 30 receptions combined - for a GRAND TOTAL of 123 touches.

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I projected 230 carries, but saying 250 is a possibility isn't unrealistic.

Beanie had 255 touches, over 2/3rds of the touches for the RB position in Arizona. I believe this was in the top 5 highest percentage of total touches of any RB in the league last year (it certainly was for carries, and I believe it was for total touches as well).

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I didn't know that. Good information, although I still expect Beanie to play on early downs and in the red zone. Like I said above, Williams might as well still be a rookie. Unless you're expecting Beanie to miss significant time to injury RW won't be taking over a feature back role.

I also like to look at past drafts for a certain team to see what direction they are heading in, especially with draft picks in the first 3 rounds. In the past 3 years Arizona has drafted 2 WRs (including one in the 1st this past draft), a pass catching TE (Housler), and a RB (Williams) who is a better receiver than Beanie. They are looking to become more pass happy it seems, not more run happy.

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When Kurt Warner retired the Cardinals were scrambling to create anything in the passing game. They could just as easily be intending to make it more efficient as opposed to "pass happy.' Whisenhunt is a defensive minded run first coach.

Having seen Williams play in both high school and college ball, he's got talent. He's had plenty of time to get over his injury (which I understand was a very bad one), and he's apparently ahead of schedule if the reports are to be believed. He'll steal far more touches from Beanie than LSH, Smith and Taylor did last year. Combine that with injury/bad knee reports for Beanie himself....and things aren't looking good for the guy who's never had a full season healthy.....

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Sure, Beanie (he's displayed some talent too) could get hurt, but so could Williams. Every RB can and will get injured.I'm not disagreeing regarding Williams' talent, but this will basically be his rookie season, and there is no denying he is returning from a nasty injury. Expecting him to significantly cut into Wells' touches after Beanie was very productive in 2011 doesn't make sense.

220 carries, 4.4 YPC, 968 yards - 10 catches for 70 yards, 9 total TDs - of course that might be over 13 or 14 games.....

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We basically have the same projection. Glass half empty, glass half full. I feel like I have this discussion about Wells every year.

Why are people so lazy as to throw out the "injury risk" on Beanie and speak as if he's on the sideline half the time.

In the three years he has been in the league, he has appeared in all but 4 games. granted, that's not the same as saying a guy carried the ball 25 times every game, but the perception that this guy is missing a lot of time is false.

Go look at the league and compile a list of the number of RBs who has missed 4 or fewer games in the last 3 years and I think you will be forced to reset your thinking on this.

And what exacerbates this particular discussion is that people are ready to assume that Williams can take this job away from Beanie because "as we know, Beanie is ALWAYS hurt", yet they are handing it to a guy that has not played one single game because HE WAS HURT. And, his injury isn't run of the mill. He had the type of injury that has long-term effects on key aspects of his ability.

And then people say "Well, he had no competition and still only did THIS". Yeah, Beanie doesn't have DWIL or Ben tate behind him, but the majority of backs around the league have similar splits in carries. Teams can only play who they have and the talent is not on the same level across every team, but its not unusual to see the lead guy have ~250 carries, and a backup or two combine for ~100. Usually, when a guy has no competition in the backfield, people use it as a positive but in Beanie's case, some people try to make it work against him.

I just don't get it. Last season, Beanie Wells was jsut as productive, FF-wise, as Bradshaw, JSTEW, and Mendenhall and he is super young. I don't know why people are so quick to try to bury him.

Once again, people have severely underrated beanie wells due to preconceived biases.

'Shutout said:

Why are people so lazy as to throw out the "injury risk" on Beanie and speak as if he's on the sideline half the time.

In the three years he has been in the league, he has appeared in all but 4 games. granted, that's not the same as saying a guy carried the ball 25 times every game, but the perception that this guy is missing a lot of time is false.

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He was banged up for a majority of the season. He also hasn't shown a willingness to play well through injuries in the past(almost a prerequisite for playing RB in the NFL). That's why many have issues regarding injuries with Beanie.He had 6 games with 20 or more carries and only 7 games with 20 or more touches...with little competition from other RBs on the roster.

'benson_will_lead_the_way said:

'Shutout said:

Why are people so lazy as to throw out the "injury risk" on Beanie and speak as if he's on the sideline half the time.

In the three years he has been in the league, he has appeared in all but 4 games. granted, that's not the same as saying a guy carried the ball 25 times every game, but the perception that this guy is missing a lot of time is false.

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He was banged up for a majority of the season. He also hasn't shown a willingness to play well through injuries in the past(almost a prerequisite for playing RB in the NFL). That's why many have issues regarding injuries with Beanie.He had 6 games with 20 or more carries and only 7 games with 20 or more touches...with little competition from other RBs on the roster.

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HIS HC has lauded him multiple times for playing through an injury that was described as much worse than what people knew.I think its fine for us to sit behind our screens and draw conclusions to a degree, but I put much more stock into a HC saying something like that after the season is over; especially certain HCs that have a track record of being genuine.

Re: his touch-count, I think you have to be willing to consider the total number of offensive plays ran. The Cards were 24th in the league last year in rushing plays and 17th in passing attempts. Most of the top 10 teams in the league last year ran the ball about 100+ more times than they did. It might be worth considering that the cards basically palyed without a QB for 2/3rds of the year last year.

'matttyl said:

If he only had 245 carries WITHOUT competition last year, how could he have more carries with it?! The #2, #3, and #4 RBs in Arizona last year didn't COMBINE for 100 carries, and only had 30 receptions combined - for a GRAND TOTAL of 123 touches.

Beanie had 255 touches, over 2/3rds of the touches for the RB position in Arizona. I believe this was in the top 5 highest percentage of total touches of any RB in the league last year (it certainly was for carries, and I believe it was for total touches as well).

I also like to look at past drafts for a certain team to see what direction they are heading in, especially with draft picks in the first 3 rounds. In the past 3 years Arizona has drafted 2 WRs (including one in the 1st this past draft), a pass catching TE (Housler), and a RB (Williams) who is a better receiver than Beanie. They are looking to become more pass happy it seems, not more run happy.

Having seen Williams play in both high school and college ball, he's got talent. He's had plenty of time to get over his injury (which I understand was a very bad one), and he's apparently ahead of schedule if the reports are to be believed. He'll steal far more touches from Beanie than LSH, Smith and Taylor did last year. Combine that with injury/bad knee reports for Beanie himself....and things aren't looking good for the guy who's never had a full season healthy.....

220 carries, 4.4 YPC, 968 yards - 10 catches for 70 yards, 9 total TDs - of course that might be over 13 or 14 games.....

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if Williams comes back healthy- he is the lead backWells 120 carries 500 yards 16 catches 90 yards 3 TD

'Shutout said:

'benson_will_lead_the_way said:

'Shutout said:

Why are people so lazy as to throw out the "injury risk" on Beanie and speak as if he's on the sideline half the time.

In the three years he has been in the league, he has appeared in all but 4 games. granted, that's not the same as saying a guy carried the ball 25 times every game, but the perception that this guy is missing a lot of time is false.

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He was banged up for a majority of the season. He also hasn't shown a willingness to play well through injuries in the past(almost a prerequisite for playing RB in the NFL). That's why many have issues regarding injuries with Beanie.He had 6 games with 20 or more carries and only 7 games with 20 or more touches...with little competition from other RBs on the roster.

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HIS HC has lauded him multiple times for playing through an injury that was described as much worse than what people knew.I think its fine for us to sit behind our screens and draw conclusions to a degree, but I put much more stock into a HC saying something like that after the season is over; especially certain HCs that have a track record of being genuine.

Re: his touch-count, I think you have to be willing to consider the total number of offensive plays ran. The Cards were 24th in the league last year in rushing plays and 17th in passing attempts. Most of the top 10 teams in the league last year ran the ball about 100+ more times than they did. It might be worth considering that the cards basically palyed without a QB for 2/3rds of the year last year.

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I wasn't speaking for myself...I like Beanie much more than Williams. Moreso trying to mediate.Good point on offensive plays though.

'texasbirdfan said:

if Williams comes back healthy- he is the lead backWells 120 carries 500 yards 16 catches 90 yards 3 TD

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Williams dynasty owner?

'Grahamburn said:

'texasbirdfan said:

if Williams comes back healthy- he is the lead backWells 120 carries 500 yards 16 catches 90 yards 3 TD

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Williams dynasty owner?

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yes.it is why I drafted him last Spring.what is your counterpoint if Williams comes back healthy? Did the Cardinals just want to waste a high round pick on an RB so they could platoon?

I'm a Williams dynasty owner, and Wells as well. Both are huge injury risks. But looking at their skill sets, if they both are healthy, Williams has elite cutting and vision, and is a very good receiver. If you look closely, his style is not unlike a young Emmitt Smith with better hands, although I say style and don't mean to put Williams in that class of player - and he has the scary injury history, which included time lost to injuries in college as well as the terrible one he's trying to come back from now. Wells has better size and power and likely top end speed, and a big experience edge. He also has his own big injury issues and can't catch a cold. If both are healthy, Wells probably loses nearly all of the third down touches he had last year, so that alone is maybe 40-50 touches lost. If both are healthy, I think Beanie would likely get the majority of goalline touches and I don't have enough future sight to say how they split the rest - Williams in longer yardage downs and beanie in shorter? Split series? I can see a fairly even split, or how either one could earn the majority of carries. More likely though, carries will most often be decided largely by who is healthy.

I think Beanie's only chance of doing as well as last year is more debilitating injury problems for Williams. Similarly, Williams' best chance for being a fantasy starter this year is Beanie being hurt again. If healthy, long run, I think Williams has the more valuable skills to have on the field, and just as importantly, the mindset to play with the intensity and commitment that Beanie doesn't. But I own DWill and drafted Stewart on the same theory - that I would get a stud when the dust settled and one of them took over, and you know how that has turned out for me.

I would rather own Williams in dynasty than Wells because he has a higher top end potential (even if a greater injury concern). For re-draft, I want only one to be healthy.

'texasbirdfan said:

'Grahamburn said:

'texasbirdfan said:

if Williams comes back healthy- he is the lead back

Wells 120 carries 500 yards 16 catches 90 yards 3 TD

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Williams dynasty owner?

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yes.it is why I drafted him last Spring.

what is your counterpoint if Williams comes back healthy? Did the Cardinals just want to waste a high round pick on an RB so they could platoon?

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It's just easy to spot the guys that are clearly biased. Do you really think the Cardinals will give Wells 7.5 carries per game after he just rushed for 1,047 yards and 10 scores? IF Williams is healthy he'll play as often as most rookies coming into a backfield situation where there's already a productive first round pick on the roster. About 40% of the snaps at most.

I'd expect Williams to take most of LSH's touches, all of Chester Taylor's, and a few of Beanie's. The Cardinals probably would like to run the ball more than the 389 total attempts they had in 2011, and their improved defense should let them accomplish that, so I've got them closer to 420 attempts as a team.

230 for Beanie, 140 for Williams (about 25 receptions), and the rest for QBs, WRs, and the other backs on the roster.

To answer your last question: Yes, most definitely they'd like there to be a platoon of sorts for these two players. The Cardinals had zero depth at RB when they drafted Williams, and his selection came after a season where Beanie was nicked up and struggled.

When was the last time a rookie (at least I'm considering Williams a rookie) RB came in to a situation where there was already a productive player on the roster and completely took over the feature back role?

I am "biased" because I think either might be the lead back this year instead of agreeing with you that its definitely Beanie? I didn't say Williams is going to take over the feature back role, but I project something of a '12 timeshare that leaves neither very valuable except when one is out with injuries.

As to: When was the last time a rookie RB came into a decent running game and took the lead role? DeMarco Murray last year in Texas is the 'last time' I can think of, with Felix Jones going into that season with a strikingly similar talent/consistency/injury pattern to that of Wells here. Blount, Mathews (but for injuries) and Best as '10 rookies; Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson, Steve Slater and Forte as '09 rookies also come to mind - where rookies were either the team RB yardage leaders or by season's end held the lead RB job. Its really pretty common for RBs picked in the first or second round. I'll bet on Richardson and Martin in '12.

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.

This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between.

Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

'texasbirdfan said:

'Grahamburn said:

'texasbirdfan said:

if Williams comes back healthy- he is the lead backWells 120 carries 500 yards 16 catches 90 yards 3 TD

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Williams dynasty owner?

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yes.it is why I drafted him last Spring.what is your counterpoint if Williams comes back healthy? Did the Cardinals just want to waste a high round pick on an RB so they could platoon?

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If Williams comes back healthy (not a small if this season I think), then I think he gets about 30-35% of the work. However, if Beanie isn't healthy (more than a small possibility), Williams could carve himself out a larger role. I don't think the Cardinals drafted Williams expecting to simply plug him in over Wells. They wanted depth/talent at RB. Toby Gerhart was a 2nd round pick, doesn't mean he was taken to supplant Peterson. I'm not comparing Wells to Person, just pointing out that teams don't always take high round picks expecting them to simply jump into the starting lineup.

Its Beanie's job to lose and we havnt even seen Williams play in the NFL and he was injured bad.

'Catbird said:

I am "biased" because I think either might be the lead back this year instead of agreeing with you that its definitely Beanie? I didn't say Williams is going to take over the feature back role, but I project something of a '12 timeshare that leaves neither very valuable except when one is out with injuries. As to: When was the last time a rookie RB came into a decent running game and took the lead role? DeMarco Murray last year in Texas is the 'last time' I can think of, with Felix Jones going into that season with a strikingly similar talent/consistency/injury pattern to that of Wells here. Blount, Mathews (but for injuries) and Best as '10 rookies; Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson, Steve Slater and Forte as '09 rookies also come to mind - where rookies were either the team RB yardage leaders or by season's end held the lead RB job. Its really pretty common for RBs picked in the first or second round. I'll bet on Richardson and Martin in '12.

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There's a big difference between a rookie being the #1 rusher and a rookie supplanting a 1000+ yards/10 TD rusher. The latter doesn't really happen without injury and isn't applicable to most of the cases you've noted, nor would Richardson and Martin leading their respective teams apply either. DeMarco Murray, for example, got his shot because Felix got hurt, nothing more.

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between. Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rbWant stats? Wells was 28th in DVOA 2011- not impressivehttp://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011Couldn't crack the top 20 in broken tackles 2011 - not impressive.

'Catbird said:

I am "biased" because I think either might be the lead back this year instead of agreeing with you that its definitely Beanie? I didn't say Williams is going to take over the feature back role, but I project something of a '12 timeshare that leaves neither very valuable except when one is out with injuries.

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I was replying to the poster who projected 120 carries for Wells. He's clearly a biased Ryan Williams dynasty owner.

As to: When was the last time a rookie RB came into a decent running game and took the lead role? DeMarco Murray last year in Texas is the 'last time' I can think of, with Felix Jones going into that season with a strikingly similar talent/consistency/injury pattern to that of Wells here. Blount, Mathews (but for injuries) and Best as '10 rookies; Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson, Steve Slater and Forte as '09 rookies also come to mind - where rookies were either the team RB yardage leaders or by season's end held the lead RB job. Its really pretty common for RBs picked in the first or second round. I'll bet on Richardson and Martin in '12.

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This was my question: When was the last time a rookie (at least I'm considering Williams a rookie) RB came in to a situation where there was already a productive player on the roster and completely took over the feature back role?None of the players you listed apply.

'texasbirdfan said:

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between. Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rbWant stats? Wells was 28th in DVOA 2011- not impressivehttp://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011Couldn't crack the top 20 in broken tackles 2011 - not impressive.

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Where did Ryan Williams end up in those rankings?

'texasbirdfan said:

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between. Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rbWant stats? Wells was 28th in DVOA 2011- not impressivehttp://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011Couldn't crack the top 20 in broken tackles 2011 - not impressive.

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Are you taking into consideration that he had a nagging injury during much of last season? I don't know if Wells is great, good or average, but I wouldn't judge him based on the second half of last season when he clearly wasn't himself. He looked very good before he was injured, and while he gutted it out the second half of the season, he clearly wasn't himself. I'm interested to see what he can do over a full year if he can stay healthy.

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between. Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

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Yup. As said above, I think he is generally getting overlooked quite a bit. Not sure if he will get THAT overolloed to where he could be a true steal and lead a FF team to a title (kinda like a FJAX last year..would have made a major difference at his drafted spot had he stayed healthy). But, overall, he is overlooked.What puzzles me the most is that not only is he overlooked but overlooked because of largely innacurate health/injuries and being overlooked for a guy (Williams) that not only missed his rookie year with a severe injury but really wasn't healthy in college in 2010. That guy, himself, ahsn't been healthy in two years. Should be one of the more interesting players to follow this year to see how it works out.

'bostonfred said:

What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season.But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

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No, he didn't look like a stud last year. He finished 17th in standard and 23rd in PPR, so depending on league size and scoring, he looked like anywhere from a middling RB2 to a flex play. The comparison to Gore is absurd; Gore had twice the total yardage and a much higher YPC in his breakout year.Re: upside, I'd argue that Wells has less upside than pretty much any other RB being drafted as a fantasy starter. He offers literally zero in the passing game and plays on a team that is terrible at and uncommitted to running the ball (32nd and 28th in attempts, 32nd and 24th in yards the past two years). Ryan Williams is a complete unknown, but then again, how good does he have to be to take a big bite out of the already small AZ RB pie? Journeyman Tim Hightower was good enough to force Wells to a time share role.Wells -- 200 - 840 rushing, 8 - 50 receiving, 7 TDsWilliams -- too early for a meaningful projection, but around 125 - 500 rushing, 15 - 100 receiving, 3 TDs

'Shutout said:

What puzzles me the most is that not only is he overlooked but overlooked because of largely innacurate health/injuries

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Taking the health stuff completely out of the equation, Wells is a guy who has averaged 911 YFS and 6.9 TDs per 16 games played over his three year career despite facing mediocre (THT in 2009 / 10) to zero (2011) competition. He's being drafted at his upside (last year's numbers) Guys like McGahee and Hillis are very safe bets to outproduce him and are available a round or more later, not to mention a slew of players at other positions that offer better value in the late 5th range where Wells is going.

This spotlight is a tough one. Both backs have injury concerns and I'll go out of my way not to disparage Beanie while heaping praise on Williams. I've been a big Ryan Williams fan going back to his days at Vatech. If Williams knee is sound, I think he overtakes Beanie and doesn't look back. Not going to predict that, but lets just say that's what I'm rooting for. Drafting either back will only be part of an upside down drafting strategy, for me.

'Grahamburn said:

'texasbirdfan said:

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between. Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rbWant stats? Wells was 28th in DVOA 2011- not impressivehttp://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011Couldn't crack the top 20 in broken tackles 2011 - not impressive.

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Where did Ryan Williams end up in those rankings?

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NOT in the bottom half....

'todisco1 said:

'texasbirdfan said:

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.

This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between.

Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

Click to expand...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rbWant stats? Wells was 28th in DVOA 2011- not impressive

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011

Couldn't crack the top 20 in broken tackles 2011 - not impressive

.

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Are you taking into consideration that he had a nagging injury during much of last season? I don't know if Wells is great, good or average, but I wouldn't judge him based on the second half of last season when he clearly wasn't himself. He looked very good before he was injured, and while he gutted it out the second half of the season, he clearly wasn't himself. I'm interested to see what he can do over a full year if he can stay healthy.

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Every running back's middle name is Nagging Injury. The facts are the facts- that help predict the future...

'Coeur de Lion said:

1. No, he didn't look like a stud last year. He finished 17th in standard and 23rd in PPR, so depending on league size and scoring, he looked like anywhere from a middling RB2 to a flex play. 2. The comparison to Gore is absurd; Gore had twice the total yardage and a much higher YPC in his breakout year.3. Re: upside, I'd argue that Wells has less upside than pretty much any other RB being drafted as a fantasy starter. He offers literally zero in the passing game and plays on a team that is terrible at and uncommitted to running the ball (32nd and 28th in attempts, 32nd and 24th in yards the past two years).4. Journeyman Tim Hightower was good enough to force Wells to a time share role.TDs

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1. Beanie should have been in your lineup the first four weeks, when he 393 total yards and 5 tds. He should not have been in your lineup much after his knee injury. Looking at his end of season stats is meaningless unless you expect him to get injured in exactly week 5 each year and play exactly the same before and afterwards. 2. Gore had 4.8 ypc before his breakout. Beanie averaged 4.5 ypc his rookie year and 5 ypc last year prior to the injury. Its not outlandish to compare the two.3. I agree that his upside is capped in ppr leagues. Beanie's ADP is 59 right now. That's rb2 territory, maybe even rb3. If he gets 280 carries at 5ypc, he will have about 1500 total yards, and likely double digit tds, which are rb1 numbers. There is upside, even in ppr leagues, but especially in. 5ppr or 0ppr. 4. Hightower had 10 tds his rookie year and followed it up with 1000 total yards and 8 tds in a split with beanie. He parlayed that into a starting job in denver, and appears to be the starter headed into this year despite an acl injury. He's not bad for a "journeyman".

'texasbirdfan said:

'todisco1 said:

'texasbirdfan said:

'bostonfred said:

This is about what I expected in this thread. A bunch of people who think they can predict injury and manipulate the stats to fit their preconceptions. Very little discussion of his actual ability if he plays.

This is why he's a potential steal in drafts. Everybody thinks they know he will get injured. What I care about is that an uninjured beanie looked like a stud last year. This reminds me a lot of gore, who had looked awesome in limited time, then blew up in his first healthy season. He was one of the last starting rbs taken that year in most leagues. The same is true of fragile fred taylor and quite a few backs in between.

Is beanie the safest pick on the board? Of course not. But he's got huge upside that's being totally ignored in almost every post in this thread. If he plays up to his potential this year, the team that got him in the mid-late rounds will win a lot of leagues.

Click to expand...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rbWant stats? Wells was 28th in DVOA 2011- not impressive

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/broken-tackles-2011

Couldn't crack the top 20 in broken tackles 2011 - not impressive

.

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Are you taking into consideration that he had a nagging injury during much of last season? I don't know if Wells is great, good or average, but I wouldn't judge him based on the second half of last season when he clearly wasn't himself. He looked very good before he was injured, and while he gutted it out the second half of the season, he clearly wasn't himself. I'm interested to see what he can do over a full year if he can stay healthy.

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Every running back's middle name is Nagging Injury. The facts are the facts- that help predict the future...

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Not sure I understand what you're getting at here. If you're saying that there was no difference between Well's first few games and after he was hurt, then I'll respectfully disagree. If you're saying that all runningbacks suffer the same types of injuries during the season, I'll respectfully disagree. "Facts are the facts" is kind of strange if you're simply looking at numbers and not taking anything else into consideration.

Multi-quoting is a pain on my phone but for bf:

It's meaningless to look at the entire 44 game data set for Chris Wells? He's been nicked up, like virtually every RB in the NFL is pretty much all year. How is cherry picking four good games to start 2011 more relevant at all? Of course he'll get banged up in 2012; every RB does every year.

280 carries seems high. Wells had 245 last year playing in 15 games with zero competition and has averaged 12 / game in his career. Is it within the realm of possibility? Maybe, but it's certainly not likely.

When we start talking about 5 YPC for a guy with a career average of 4.2, playing on a team that averaged 4.2 for the past two years, we are pretty much leaving reality entirely. 5 yards / carry on 280 carries on the Cardinals? Really? I'm seriously more likely to get hit by lightning than Wells is to run for 1400 yards in Arizona this year.

We'll just have to disagree on the validity of Wells vs. prime Gore, and on the talent level of THT I guess.

'Coeur de Lion said:

It's meaningless to look at the entire 44 game data set for Chris Wells? He's been nicked up, like virtually every RB in the NFL is pretty much all year. How is cherry picking four good games to start 2011 more relevant at all? Of course he'll get banged up in 2012; every RB does every year.280 carries seems high. Wells had 245 last year playing in 15 games with zero competition and has averaged 12 / game in his career. Is it within the realm of possibility? Maybe, but it's certainly not likely.When we start talking about 5 YPC for a guy with a career average of 4.2, playing on a team that averaged 4.2 for the past two years, we are pretty much leaving reality entirely. 5 yards / carry on 280i do carries on the Cardinals? Really? I'm seriously more likely to get hit by lightning than Wells is to run for 1400 yards in Arizona this year.We'll just have to disagree on the validity of Wells vs. prime Gore, and on the talent level of THT I guess.

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Im not saying wells is more talented than gore or that hightower is awesome, just that wells is in a similar situation to gore, where early injury concerns and a sucky team led people to underrate him before he took off. A high pre injury ypc is a good, not great, indicator of future success and worth pointing out. And a few years ago, with turmoil at qb and a questionable offensive line, people said the same things about gore in san fran that they are now saying about wells - an overrated injury prone back on a sucky team. Does that make him a gore clone? Of course not. Im just saying he has big upside.As for his career ypc of 4.2, you're looking at carries from an injury shortened 2010 and a serious knee injury in 2011. His ypc in 2009 was 4.5, and to start last year, it was 5.0. That's the short history we have of him being healthy. Its not cherry picking to use it. He had a serious knee injury last year. We don't know all the details, but he played through it and it impacted his play. We know what he can do when he's healthy, and we saw that he didn't do as well when he was hurt. Including post injury numbers to come up with career averages is like punishing him for playing through pain while rewarding a back who stopped playing as soon as he got hurt. Until or unless he gets injured this year, its more meaningful to project in the high 4s or even 5+ than using his career numbers. You are welcome to predict a higher than normal chance of injury for him, as I do, but if you cap his upside based on his injury numbers, and then assign an additional risk of him getting injured, you're double counting.Which is exactly the part that bothers me about this thread. It basically amounts to, he got hurt, and he wasn't as good when he got hurt. Well, no kidding. Now let's talk about if he's any good when healthy.

'bostonfred said:

'Coeur de Lion said:

It's meaningless to look at the entire 44 game data set for Chris Wells? He's been nicked up, like virtually every RB in the NFL is pretty much all year. How is cherry picking four good games to start 2011 more relevant at all? Of course he'll get banged up in 2012; every RB does every year.280 carries seems high. Wells had 245 last year playing in 15 games with zero competition and has averaged 12 / game in his career. Is it within the realm of possibility? Maybe, but it's certainly not likely.When we start talking about 5 YPC for a guy with a career average of 4.2, playing on a team that averaged 4.2 for the past two years, we are pretty much leaving reality entirely. 5 yards / carry on 280i do carries on the Cardinals? Really? I'm seriously more likely to get hit by lightning than Wells is to run for 1400 yards in Arizona this year.We'll just have to disagree on the validity of Wells vs. prime Gore, and on the talent level of THT I guess.

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Im not saying wells is more talented than gore or that hightower is awesome, just that wells is in a similar situation to gore, where early injury concerns and a sucky team led people to underrate him before he took off. A high pre injury ypc is a good, not great, indicator of future success and worth pointing out. And a few years ago, with turmoil at qb and a questionable offensive line, people said the same things about gore in san fran that they are now saying about wells - an overrated injury prone back on a sucky team. Does that make him a gore clone? Of course not. Im just saying he has big upside.As for his career ypc of 4.2, you're looking at carries from an injury shortened 2010 and a serious knee injury in 2011. His ypc in 2009 was 4.5, and to start last year, it was 5.0. That's the short history we have of him being healthy. Its not cherry picking to use it. He had a serious knee injury last year. We don't know all the details, but he played through it and it impacted his play. We know what he can do when he's healthy, and we saw that he didn't do as well when he was hurt. Including post injury numbers to come up with career averages is like punishing him for playing through pain while rewarding a back who stopped playing as soon as he got hurt. Until or unless he gets injured this year, its more meaningful to project in the high 4s or even 5+ than using his career numbers. You are welcome to predict a higher than normal chance of injury for him, as I do, but if you cap his upside based on his injury numbers, and then assign an additional risk of him getting injured, you're double counting.Which is exactly the part that bothers me about this thread. It basically amounts to, he got hurt, and he wasn't as good when he got hurt. Well, no kidding. Now let's talk about if he's any good when healthy.

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This is like using Jahvid Best's statlines in a 16 game stretch...

'Coeur de Lion said:

Multi-quoting is a pain on my phone but for bf:It's meaningless to look at the entire 44 game data set for Chris Wells? He's been nicked up, like virtually every RB in the NFL is pretty much all year. How is cherry picking four good games to start 2011 more relevant at all? Of course he'll get banged up in 2012; every RB does every year.280 carries seems high. Wells had 245 last year playing in 15 games with zero competition and has averaged 12 / game in his career. Is it within the realm of possibility? Maybe, but it's certainly not likely.When we start talking about 5 YPC for a guy with a career average of 4.2, playing on a team that averaged 4.2 for the past two years, we are pretty much leaving reality entirely. 5 yards / carry on 280 carries on the Cardinals? Really? I'm seriously more likely to get hit by lightning than Wells is to run for 1400 yards in Arizona this year.We'll just have to disagree on the validity of Wells vs. prime Gore, and on the talent level of THT I guess.

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Wells played in 14 games last year and averaged 17.5 carries per game.17.5 carries per game x 16 games = 280 carries.He just about put up the same statline as Marshawn Lynch.Watch the tape.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qcH2c64qv0

Actually Wells played in 15 games, so to reach 280 he'll need to both play 16 games and get more carries per game, despite having more competition in the form of Ryan Williams.

And Lynch was actually pretty far ahead of him because Lynch is actually used in the passing game:

1095 - 10 vs 1416 - 13 is a 50 point difference in standard and 70 in PPR.

'Coeur de Lion said:

Actually Wells played in 15 games, so to reach 280 he'll need to both play 16 games and get more carries per game, despite having more competition in the form of Ryan Williams.And Lynch was actually pretty far ahead of him because Lynch is actually used in the passing game:1095 - 10 vs 1416 - 13 is a 50 point difference in standard and 70 in PPR.

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Wells didn't have a carry in weeks 3 or 17. The starters in those weeks got the bulk of the carries. The lead back for the cards got more than 280 carries last year. I agree with you that lynch was better last year, but again, you're using season totals from a season when beanie had a serious knee injury in his fifth game and played through it. I understand how season totals help you to defend the position you've made, though. As for williams, i don't know how much he is in competition for beanie's carries, but that, and the injury risk, are downsides for beanie. I don't think anybody has guaranteed that beanie will get 280 carries, but its a reasonable number if things go well for him this year. In my own projections, I took that projection and cut it by 20% due to the risks you keep mentioning. Ymmv.