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Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Dwayne Bowe Player Page

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[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

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I like Bowe (and the Chiefs this year). I think this offense could be scary. Not the biggest cassell fan around but his weapons are undeniable. I do think Baldwin emerges as a nice #2 on the team this year and Moeaki brings a nice prescense across the middle. Bowe is a monster of a talent it is just getting the ball in his hands. To get over 80 catches last year and 7 tds with the qb's they had in place is quite a compliment to Bowe.

I see a very good top 12 year for Bowe

80 catches

1200 yards

8 td's

 
I like Bowe, don't like Cassel.

I find him frustrating to own - had him a few times now and he relies very heavily on his big games to make up for the mediocre games. I'll pass.

77 catches - 1090 yards - 5 tds

 
With an ADP of WR20, Bowe appears to be a very safe, but unexciting play. He's being drafted behind Colston (who fits the same genre), Austin (who is a WR10ish bounce back candidate), and Demaryius Thomas (total wildcard). The guys directly behind him are VJax (new team), Maclin (a WR15ish bounce back candidate), Britt (lots of questions), Stevie (coming off groin surgery), and my favorite - Lloyd. So it's hard to make a case where Bowe stands out given the upside of a few of those guys around him, but he does at least compare well if you look at his situation.

He had a pretty flukey 15 TDs a couple years ago - only caught 7 balls inside the red zone, but 100% went for TDs - and then only snagged 5 while his QB missed 7 games. Aside from the TDs, he finished the year with similar numbers (142 targ, 81 rec, 57%, 1159 yds, 14.3 ypr, 5 TDs) to the year before (131 targ, 72 rec, 55%, 1162 yds, 16.1 ypr, 15 TDs). If you just look at the 9 games with Cassell last year, his stats extrapolate to 142 targ, 73 rec, 51%, 1179 yds, 16.2 ypr, 7 TDs which are really similar to 2010 without the TDs. If it wasn't for the switch in OC, then I'd think we could feel really good about what we've got here in Bowe - a 70-75 rec, 1150-1200 yds, 6-10 TD guy.

I think Daboll runs the ball like crazy with Hillis and Charles, but the good news is that they've been running the ball a lot and only thrown the ball 475 and 501 times the last two seasons, so Bowe should still get 120-140 targets as the WR1 of the team. He finished WR20 last year with a lower than usual ypr and only 5 TDs, so if you are looking for a safe play in the late 4th/early 5th then pass on D.Thomas and even Colston and grab Bowe.

130 targets, 72 rec, 16 ypr, 1152 yds, 8 TD

 
With an ADP of WR20, Bowe appears to be a very safe, but unexciting play. He's being drafted behind Colston (who fits the same genre), Austin (who is a WR10ish bounce back candidate), and Demaryius Thomas (total wildcard). The guys directly behind him are VJax (new team), Maclin (a WR15ish bounce back candidate), Britt (lots of questions), Stevie (coming off groin surgery), and my favorite - Lloyd. So it's hard to make a case where Bowe stands out given the upside of a few of those guys around him, but he does at least compare well if you look at his situation.

He had a pretty flukey 15 TDs a couple years ago - only caught 7 balls inside the red zone, but 100% went for TDs - and then only snagged 5 while his QB missed 7 games. Aside from the TDs, he finished the year with similar numbers (142 targ, 81 rec, 57%, 1159 yds, 14.3 ypr, 5 TDs) to the year before (131 targ, 72 rec, 55%, 1162 yds, 16.1 ypr, 15 TDs). If you just look at the 9 games with Cassell last year, his stats extrapolate to 142 targ, 73 rec, 51%, 1179 yds, 16.2 ypr, 7 TDs which are really similar to 2010 without the TDs. If it wasn't for the switch in OC, then I'd think we could feel really good about what we've got here in Bowe - a 70-75 rec, 1150-1200 yds, 6-10 TD guy.

I think Daboll runs the ball like crazy with Hillis and Charles, but the good news is that they've been running the ball a lot and only thrown the ball 475 and 501 times the last two seasons, so Bowe should still get 120-140 targets as the WR1 of the team. He finished WR20 last year with a lower than usual ypr and only 5 TDs, so if you are looking for a safe play in the late 4th/early 5th then pass on D.Thomas and even Colston and grab Bowe.

130 targets, 72 rec, 16 ypr, 1152 yds, 8 TD
:goodposting: Nice analysis.
 
Really can't get on board with Bowe. I loved him before his 15 TD season. Glowing preseason reports regarding his work ethic sold me in 2010. Now he has contract issues, isn't working out with the team, and I expect the Chiefs to be extremely run heavy.

He's in the tier with a plethora of other WRs on better offenses with better QBs, so if I'm going WR in that area I'll probably end up with someone else.

65 receptions at 14 ypc is 910 yards. 6 TDs.

 
14 ypr? You think Palko is going to be the starter for 16 games?
His career number is 13.8. Haley's vertical offense is no longer in town. Cassel is probably the most likely QB to be replaced in the NFL. I just don't see this team throwing often enough or efficiently enough to put him ahead of the other WRs in this tier.Maybe there's a silver lining for Bowe in that he's likely to be a free agent after the year, and that could motivate him. He's an outstanding player, but I forsee some unrest on the horizon in this situation. Bowe's production has been mediocre in the past when he wasn't completely focused on football. Would you put it past Bowe to pull a DeSean Jackson and spend his fair shar of time pouting on the sidelines if things aren't going his way early in the season?
 
His career number is 13.8.
Almost totally irrelevant. He was 16.1 with Cassell in 2010 and 16.2 with Cassell in 2011. Prior to (and after) that he had really bad QBs (not that Cassell is elite).
Haley's vertical offense is no longer in town.
This is a good point. Maybe this affects things more than the QB. I'll add a little caution to my perception of Bowe in 2012.
No problem. The career number may be irrelevant, but it's just another factor in a long list of reasons why I don't see Bowe repeating a 16+ ypc. The Chiefs also start the season with Atlanta, @ Buffalo, @ New Orleans, San Diego, Baltimore, and @ Tampa Bay when they go into their bye week. If KC gets off to a slow start I wouldn't be surprised to see Ricky Stanzi starting for this team coming out of their bye. Matt Cassel is nothing more than a stop gap for this team, and with the young talent on the Chiefs roster they'll need to see what they have in Stanzi sooner rather than later.There are just too many negative red flags to project Bowe for a top 20 season, and/or put him near the top of the Colston/Johnson/Nelson/VJAX/DJAX/Maclin tier. I expect him to finish behind all these players, and won't be drafting him at his mid 5th round ADP.
 
If you owned Bowe 2 seasons ago you probably won your league. The dude was money during the playoffs.

Thats said, I have no clue where to rank him, he is an enigma with Cassell at QB. Physically he is a beast and is a an animal trying to get the ball but the problem is Cassell stinks and Bowes hands turn to rock sometimes.

 
If Bowe reports his floor is very high at 70 catches 1000 + yards and 6+ touchdowns, if everything goes right for him we have seen the upside. He is playing for probably his only big pay day. I could see him near 85 catches 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns but only if it all goes right, otherwise I think he fits in where he always has.

 
There were reports that there's no way he misses any games given that his game checks are huge being franchised.

 
Just found this:

A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com unsigned franchise player Dwayne Bowe plans to report to the Chiefs before the beginning of the regular season.PFT's report comes after SI.com's Jim Trotter passed along last Tuesday that there was "virtually no chance" Bowe missed regular season games. It remains unclear what Bowe believes he's gaining by holding out, but he'll collect his entire $9.5 million check as long as he shows up before Week 1.
 
Annually underrated and undervalued. I don't get it. Sure, his ceiling isn't as high as many WRs, but he's about as safe as they get (assuming he reports).

Target hog and has become a more consistent WR as he's matured.

135 targets

80 catches

1100 yards

7 TDs

Fringe WR1/high end WR2

 
Dwayne Bowe is a very athletic receiver who was definately hurt by his Qb situation (or lack there of) last year. I think the tools are in place for the KC offense to have a bounce back season and expect Bowe to be a guy fantasy owners can depend on.

82 receptions, 1100 yards and 8 tds

 
If you go just by what Bowe's stats were last year before Cassel went down and projected them to a full season: 73 receptions, 1178 yards, and 7 TDs. For non-PPR, that would have been about 10.1 ppg which would have made him a mid #2 WR (18th in between AJ Green and Miles Austin).

 
Just found this:

A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com unsigned franchise player Dwayne Bowe plans to report to the Chiefs before the beginning of the regular season.PFT's report comes after SI.com's Jim Trotter passed along last Tuesday that there was "virtually no chance" Bowe missed regular season games. It remains unclear what Bowe believes he's gaining by holding out, but he'll collect his entire $9.5 million check as long as he shows up before Week 1.
Seems like a season of discontented "hamstring" issues. Pass.
 
Just found this:

A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com unsigned franchise player Dwayne Bowe plans to report to the Chiefs before the beginning of the regular season.PFT's report comes after SI.com's Jim Trotter passed along last Tuesday that there was "virtually no chance" Bowe missed regular season games. It remains unclear what Bowe believes he's gaining by holding out, but he'll collect his entire $9.5 million check as long as he shows up before Week 1.
Seems like a season of discontented "hamstring" issues. Pass.
It is a contract year, so there is a lot to be gained or lost for Bowe this year.
 
He's in the tier with a plethora of other WRs on better offenses with better QBs, so if I'm going WR in that area I'll probably end up with someone else.
Yah but unless that tier of yours extends down to Robert Meachum which mine doesn't, he's pretty much always being taken at the bottom of that tier; at least in the mocks I've done, he's basically never taken ahead of Maclin for instance. I kinda like his value this yr more than I ever have.
 
Just found this:

A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com unsigned franchise player Dwayne Bowe plans to report to the Chiefs before the beginning of the regular season.

PFT's report comes after SI.com's Jim Trotter passed along last Tuesday that there was "virtually no chance" Bowe missed regular season games. It remains unclear what Bowe believes he's gaining by holding out, but he'll collect his entire $9.5 million check as long as he shows up before Week 1.
Seems like a season of discontented "hamstring" issues. Pass.
:goodposting: :goodposting:

 
Just found this:

A source with knowledge of the situation tells Profootballtalk.com unsigned franchise player Dwayne Bowe plans to report to the Chiefs before the beginning of the regular season.

PFT's report comes after SI.com's Jim Trotter passed along last Tuesday that there was "virtually no chance" Bowe missed regular season games. It remains unclear what Bowe believes he's gaining by holding out, but he'll collect his entire $9.5 million check as long as he shows up before Week 1.
Seems like a season of discontented "hamstring" issues. Pass.
:goodposting: :goodposting:
The "franchise tag" in my mind seems to do little for anyone...it alienates the player from the team and the team usually gets 75% effort from the guy who shows...sans Walter Jones, I am curious what the ratio of times it has worked for both parties versus none.
 
He's in the tier with a plethora of other WRs on better offenses with better QBs, so if I'm going WR in that area I'll probably end up with someone else.
Yah but unless that tier of yours extends down to Robert Meachum which mine doesn't, he's pretty much always being taken at the bottom of that tier; at least in the mocks I've done, he's basically never taken ahead of Maclin for instance. I kinda like his value this yr more than I ever have.
He's going in about the middle of round 6 now in PPR leagues. Right around VJAX, DeSean, and Steve Johnson. I'd still pass on Bowe for any of those players. I don't think he's going to have a good season showing up for week 1 with no training camp reps.
 
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -

Holdout wide receiver Dwayne Bowe has reached agreement with the Kansas City Chiefs over his contract dispute, a source has told KMBC 9 News.

There was no immediate word on the terms of the agreement.

Bowe, who has missed all of the team's training camp, was spotted flying to Kansas City on Friday afternoon.

Bowe, 27, had been holding out while trying to get a long-term contract. He did not sign one before the league deadline for a long-term deal expired last month.

The Chiefs named him their nonexclusive franchise player last spring, which meant the team would have to offer him a one-year contract that would make him one of the five highest-paid players in the league. He could negotiate with other teams, but the Chiefs would have the right to match the offer or get two first-round draft picks as compensation.

The Chiefs have not yet confirmed that Bowe has reached an agreement with them.

The team plays its first preseason game of the year against the Arizona Cardinals Friday night at Arrowhead Stadium.

Read more: http://www.kmbc.com/...l#ixzz23BQqe63u

 
Bowe is playing for a big contract. He's very talented and undervalued. I like him a lot at his current price, but I do expect it to rise a little bit.

85 rec, 1150 yards, 9 TD

 
game 1 projections?

atlantas defense isnt looking all that great this preseason

thoughts?

 
He was on pace for 1,300 yards and 8 TDs last year before Cassel went down in week 10 and the Chiefs stopped scoring any points. I think he's a lock for 1,200 yards if Cassel stays healthy. His upside is 1,300+ and 10+ TDs.

I think he'll start a little slow, but he's a solid start any week.

 
Got Bowe as my WR2 in the 6th round.

Huge value there, as he can potentially put up top 10 numbers.

 
'infantsam said:
Is he a week one start? I want to bench him for the hyped up T Smith (Bal)
Depends who you have I'd think. If the Chiefs are run heavy and the Falcons cover Bowe with Asante plus safety help I wouldn't expect much. That being said, as my projection in here indicates I'm very down on him, so take my comment with a grain of salt.It seems many posters expect business as usual for Bowe.
 
Bowe is the most underrated fantasy WR this year, except for maybe Welker. Here's what he has going for him:

1) He's a physical marvel - huge, makes tough catches, great after the catch. Same size as Dez Bryant.

2) Clear #1 WR on his team/clear favorite target of his QB

3) Demonstrated fantasy success with his current QB - with Cassel, Bowe has put up outstanding, WR1 fantasy numbers:

2010: #2 fantasy WR (16 games) - 1,150 yards, 15TDs,

2011: #8 fantasy WR (through 9 games, then Cassel got hurt)

4) Playing in a contract year

5) Still young and healthy

There's a lot to like here. It seems crazy that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are being drafted/valued ahead of Bowe. He is a physical marvel that has already shown he can put up WR1 numbers with his QB. Yet he's being drafted as a fringe WR2. If he played in Dallas or NY (and got the media attention), he'd be a top 5 WR pick.

 
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Bowe is the most underrated fantasy WR this year, except for maybe Welker. Here's what he has going for him:1) He's a physical marvel - huge, makes tough catches, great after the catch. Same size as Dez Bryant.2) Clear #1 WR on his team/clear favorite target of his QB3) Demonstrated fantasy success with his current QB - with Cassel, Bowe has put up outstanding, WR1 fantasy numbers:2010: #2 fantasy WR (16 games) - 1,150 yards, 15TDs, 2011: #8 fantasy WR (through 9 games, then Cassel got hurt)4) Playing in a contract year5) Still young and healthy There's a lot to like here. It seems crazy that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are being drafted/valued ahead of Bowe. He is a physical marvel that has already shown he can put up WR1 numbers with his QB. Yet he's being drafted as a fringe WR2. If he played in Dallas or NY (and got the media attention), he'd be a top 5 WR pick.
I don't think where he plays has anything to do with where he gets drafted. In 5 seasons, he's never broken 1200 yards, and he only has one double-digit TD season, and 3 seasons where he got 5 or less TD's. Also, his QB stinks.
 
Bowe is the most underrated fantasy WR this year, except for maybe Welker. Here's what he has going for him:1) He's a physical marvel - huge, makes tough catches, great after the catch. Same size as Dez Bryant.2) Clear #1 WR on his team/clear favorite target of his QB3) Demonstrated fantasy success with his current QB - with Cassel, Bowe has put up outstanding, WR1 fantasy numbers:2010: #2 fantasy WR (16 games) - 1,150 yards, 15TDs, 2011: #8 fantasy WR (through 9 games, then Cassel got hurt)4) Playing in a contract year5) Still young and healthy There's a lot to like here. It seems crazy that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are being drafted/valued ahead of Bowe. He is a physical marvel that has already shown he can put up WR1 numbers with his QB. Yet he's being drafted as a fringe WR2. If he played in Dallas or NY (and got the media attention), he'd be a top 5 WR pick.
I don't think where he plays has anything to do with where he gets drafted. In 5 seasons, he's never broken 1200 yards, and he only has one double-digit TD season, and 3 seasons where he got 5 or less TD's. Also, his QB stinks.
Regardless of whether Cassel "stinks" in general, Bowe has put up WR1 stats with him as his QB. You seem to be suggesting he has a low ceiling, but in his 4 healthy "full" seasons, he has had 1,000 in each (ok, 995 in his rookie year), 1,100 in the last two, and was on pace for 1300+ last year before Cassel got hurt. Do you really think he can't get more than 1200 yards? He also put up 15 TDs with Cassel in 2010. How many other active receivers have scored 15 TDs in a season? Randy Moss, Jordy Nelson, and Calvin Johnson are it, I think. So how is his ceiling limited? Let's look at how his career has compared to Brandon Marshall's so far. Both are big, physical WRs, so it is probably a fair comparison. Marshall has played 6 seasons. Bowe has played 5 seasons, one of which was shortened to 11 games due to injury. Neither has played with Hall of Fame QBs, but both have put up their best numbers with their current QB for 2012. Marshall is being drafted/ranked as WR 8-12, while Bowe is ranked as WR22-26.Each only has one year with double-digit TDs, but Bowe's best (15) is 50% better than Marshall's (10). Even though he's played 16 fewer career games, Bowe has still scored more TDs than Marshall (36 vs 34).Bowe has never scored fewer than 4 TDs and the only year he scored fewer than 5 he only played 11 games due to injury. Marshall has had a 2 TD year and a 3 TD year.Their yards/game average are basically the same. Marshall has a higher drop rate (and seems to be getting worse).Yet Marshall is everyone's WR darling this year, along with guys like Dez Bryant, D. Thomas and Vincent Jackson, none of whom have ever had a double-digit TD OR a 1000-yard season. Crazy.
 
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I think Cassel is a lot closer to his 2010 numbers than his 2011 numbers as well. Charles and Moeaki, not to mention further maturation from Baldwin and Bowe should see him return to respectability. Bowe could approach career numbers this season.

 
Bowe is the most underrated fantasy WR this year, except for maybe Welker. Here's what he has going for him:1) He's a physical marvel - huge, makes tough catches, great after the catch. Same size as Dez Bryant.2) Clear #1 WR on his team/clear favorite target of his QB3) Demonstrated fantasy success with his current QB - with Cassel, Bowe has put up outstanding, WR1 fantasy numbers:2010: #2 fantasy WR (16 games) - 1,150 yards, 15TDs, 2011: #8 fantasy WR (through 9 games, then Cassel got hurt)4) Playing in a contract year5) Still young and healthy There's a lot to like here. It seems crazy that Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are being drafted/valued ahead of Bowe. He is a physical marvel that has already shown he can put up WR1 numbers with his QB. Yet he's being drafted as a fringe WR2. If he played in Dallas or NY (and got the media attention), he'd be a top 5 WR pick.
I don't think where he plays has anything to do with where he gets drafted. In 5 seasons, he's never broken 1200 yards, and he only has one double-digit TD season, and 3 seasons where he got 5 or less TD's. Also, his QB stinks.
Do you realize how rare it is for a WR to break 1200 yards? That is a very silly argument to base your rebuttal around. His QB sucking has no bearing on Bowe's fantasy output because Bowe is a top 8 fantasy WR when Cassel is in the lineup. Bowe is the perfect WR to suit Cassell's skill set and he has his QB's eye.
 
Also, "Bowe ranks second in the NFL on receiving the highest percentage of his team's red zone targets in the past two seasons."http://espn.go.com/blog/afcwest/post/_/id/47923/will-bowe-continue-to-shine-red-zone
Great stat. How often do the Chiefs get to the red zone in comparison to other teams, and how often do they throw it once they're there?Keep in mind Todd Haley is no longer the offensive coordinator in KC, and Bowe missed all of training camp.
 
'Wrigley said:
'Sabertooth said:
'Wrigley said:
Got Bowe as my WR2 in the 6th round. Huge value there, as he can potentially put up top 10 numbers.
Hope you're rightgot him at 7.02 as my WR4
Great value. Great trade bait too. Who are your other wideouts?
drafted 2ndJulio, Andre, and Harvin......with a little Kenny Britt for good measure.
6 team league?? Just kidding, thats quite the haul. I'm glad to have him as my WR2.
 

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