Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Santonio Holmes, WR, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Santonio Holmes Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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I think that Holmes is underrated going into this season. While I don't think he'll put up insanely high numbers, I think it's pretty likely that he puts up solid WR3 level stats and can probably be picked up for cheaper than that. Even if Tebow takes over, I think he'll get plenty of attention as he's the best WR target on the team (Hill will take some time to develop).

70 Receptions

1030 Yards

6 touchdowns

'solorca said:

I think that Holmes is underrated going into this season. While I don't think he'll put up insanely high numbers, I think it's pretty likely that he puts up solid WR3 level stats and can probably be picked up for cheaper than that. Even if Tebow takes over, I think he'll get plenty of attention as he's the best WR target on the team (Hill will take some time to develop). 70 Receptions1030 Yards6 touchdowns

Click to expand...

I expect about the same. I can see a slight uptick over the past few years simply because I think the team knows it has to get better passing the ball and will emphasize it more. Holmes is the best receiver on the team and should benefit.

His YPC has been at its lowest since he joined the Jets. He has only once had more than 56 catches in a season, and while Sparano may be a good change compared to Shotty, we have not seen him turn a WR into fantasy gold (I do have to say he has had little to work with).

60 catches 870 yards (14.5 avg. YPC) and 5 TDs; 5 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD

Decent WR3, but nothing more.

I havent done any projections for holmes yet, but there were two things that i didnt like for holmes and one has been adressed, offensive cordinator. I was not a fan of schotts play calling as a whole the last few years.

now i dont know if this says more about play calling or sanchez's play making ability.

Sanchez had 542 attempts last year

Passing Stats of over 20 air yards:

11comp - 43att

3tds - 6ints

compared to tebow last year:

14comp - 54att

3td - 1int

and tebow didnt even start the whole season.

is this play calling or ability. either way im too lazy to compare other qbs because these stats were easily accessible. My link they attempted to pass over 20 air yards almost 8% of the time leaving 92% passing plays less than 20 air yards.

hopefully sparano can change this

Holmes missed the first 4 games due to suspension in his first year (2010) with the Jets and playing with a 2nd yr QB netted 52 catches on 95 targets for 746 yds and 6 TD's.

In 2011, with no training camp, he netted 51 catches on 101 targets for 654 yds and 8 TD's.

Sanchez' completion percentage has raised slightly each year from 53.9 to 54.8 to 56.8. His attempts, yardage and TD's have all increased year to year also. I know they want to run more, but it's still to be seen how much Sparano and Tebow and any OL changes they've made might help. Regardless, I don't see the total passing declining much from 3500 yds and 26 TD's.

Burress and Tomlinson will be gone along with their combined 87 receptions, 1000+ yds and 10 TD's. So they've got Stephen Hill and Chaz Shilens now, and maybe a few more for Keller and Kerley. I just don't see how Holmes' absolute bottom floor can be less than 6-7TD's, with it more likely being 8-10. If Sanchez continues to improve on his accuracy, and the new play-calling and OL shuffling can help him out to boot, I don't see why that 50% completion rate to Holmes can't improve quite a bit.

I'll predict 67/1000/10

I mean, come on. He had 6 TD's in 12 games in 2010, his 1st year in a new system with a 2nd yr QB and missing the first 4 games. And no training camp in his 2nd year with 8 TD's. How can people be predicting just 6 TD's in his first real "normal" year.

Holmes has burned me twice. Bought a year two early, subsequently a sold a year too early (not so bad of an exit, but I still feel it). So please keep that in mind. The reason I feel burned is that I really did think Holmes was a perennial 250+ PPR guy. I take a step back and wonder, should he be? Yes, by golly, Santonio Holmes should have been/be a perennial 250+ PPR guy - he has a tremendous skill-set. But he's not a guy that can "get his" as easily as some of the other poor QB situations in the league. Think if he ever had a real QB...

Holmes will perform about where expected. I haven't seen too many suggesting a "huge" year, so I feel like I am about on track with others with his short-term value.

75, 1,000, 6 = 211 PPR, 13.2 PPR PPG

'az_prof said:

'solorca said:

I think that Holmes is underrated going into this season. While I don't think he'll put up insanely high numbers, I think it's pretty likely that he puts up solid WR3 level stats and can probably be picked up for cheaper than that. Even if Tebow takes over, I think he'll get plenty of attention as he's the best WR target on the team (Hill will take some time to develop).

70 Receptions

1030 Yards

6 touchdowns

Click to expand...

I expect about the same. I can see a slight uptick over the past few years simply because I think the team knows it has to get better passing the ball and will emphasize it more. Holmes is the best receiver on the team and should benefit.

Click to expand...

I really couldn't disagree more. I think the Jets realized that passing the ball is not their identity which is why they switched to a more grinding OC in Sparano. They've emphasized the passing game more each year and the results have been worse. I think this year they get back to running the ball and playing defense. In 2009, they threw the ball 389 times and had the RBs rush 534 times. In 2011, they threw the ball 545 times and had the RBs rush 397 times. I don't think we see either this year, but probably somewhere in the middle. Maybe 500 passes and 440 RB rushes. Actually with Tebow running a few packages a game, maybe he dips out of both pots and we only see 480 passes and 420 RB rushes.

But this thread is about Holmes and I think this shift won't hurt him a whole lot. He should see 100 targets again, maybe even 120, but that's unlikely. Even if he saw 120, catch % has a strong correlation to QB comp % and Holmes isn't running the short routes, so I think at best we're looking at 55%, so a 66 reception ceiling does not sound very appealing around his ADP. I mean, 50-66 receptions will likely land him in WR3 territory by year's end, but we all want to think we're drafting a potential WR2 when we're drafting our WR3 and it would take a small miracle for that to happen with Holmes. I think most likely we're looking at 55 receptions, 14 ypr, 770 yds, 6 TD which likely equates to a low-end WR3 matching up with his current WR34 ADP.

P.S. Dragon1952, historically, Holmes finds the end zone once per 9.94 receptions. In each of the last two years, he caught 8 passes in the red zone and half went for TDs. I'm not going to bank on that happening again, especially with Tebow possibly running plays inside the 5.

Yeah 1 TD on 2 for 25. On 11 targets.



Wr #6 on MT's early rankings?

'Hipple said:

Yeah 1 TD on 2 for 25. On 11 targets.Wr #6 on MT's early rankings?

Click to expand...

Hey, you never know. Holmes gets targeted a ton. This is as good a week for him to produce as any. Trouble is, he just hasn't produced despite the number of targets. MT will look like a genius if his projections are anywhere close. You have to think outside of the box in order to get noticed.

11 targets, but pretty sure he was wide open in the endzone but sanchez missed him. on another play he did a great double move, but sanchez missed him. he did some crying afterward, but its obvious that holmes is the best skill player they have.