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Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

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Last year Welker saw 173 targets and managed career highs in yards, ypr, and touchdowns. He finished WR3. This year they added Lloyd which some see as just another guy (Branch-esque) and some believe he'll warrant a significant enough amount of targets to hurt everyone's numbers. I belong to the latter, expecting 120 targets for Lloyd. I expect Welker's numbers to return to something along the lines of 2007: 145 targets, 112 rec, 1175 yds, 8 TD, WR11. Needless to say, he won't be on any of my teams this year at a WR6 price.

Last year, I thought he had a solid chance at double digit TDs, but with the presence of Lloyd I think his TD production ends up in the 5-7 range. He caught 20 of 23 red zone targets last year for 6 TD. In case anyone is curious about his red zone production in previous years: He was 20/28/7 in 2007, 13/21/3 in 2008, 11/16/3 in 2009, 15/23/6 in 2010. He scored only 6 TDs from outside the red zone in the last 5 years.

140 targets, 100 rec, 1150 yds, 6 TD

 
What are the possibilities of him getting less than 100 receptions and more in the 90 range? Trying to project the Patriots passing offense is hard unless you think Brady is going to throw 6,000 yards. Lloyd is going to eat in to everyone's reception totals, and while I took most of these from guys like Branch, I figure everyone's totals will take a hit.

Right now I have Welker at 93/1070/6.

 
'FF Ninja said:
Last year Welker saw 173 targets and managed career highs in yards, ypr, and touchdowns. He finished WR3. This year they added Lloyd which some see as just another guy (Branch-esque) and some believe he'll warrant a significant enough amount of targets to hurt everyone's numbers. I belong to the latter, expecting 120 targets for Lloyd. I expect Welker's numbers to return to something along the lines of 2007: 145 targets, 112 rec, 1175 yds, 8 TD, WR11. Needless to say, he won't be on any of my teams this year at a WR6 price.Last year, I thought he had a solid chance at double digit TDs, but with the presence of Lloyd I think his TD production ends up in the 5-7 range. He caught 20 of 23 red zone targets last year for 6 TD. In case anyone is curious about his red zone production in previous years: He was 20/28/7 in 2007, 13/21/3 in 2008, 11/16/3 in 2009, 15/23/6 in 2010. He scored only 6 TDs from outside the red zone in the last 5 years.140 targets, 100 rec, 1150 yds, 6 TD
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hey ninja I am curious as to who you have as your top ten WR going into this year? I was thinking welker would be somewhere around 5 but it seems you disagree....
 
Welker has proven to be Brady's binky in the passing game. He has averaged 10 targets a game since coming to NE and I expect that will continue. I think last year saw Welker get a few extra yards than normal, as he had 7 plays for over 30 yards including plays of 73 and 99 yards. That upped his ypc by 1.0-1.5 above normal.

I still see Welker getting 150 targets, 110 receptions, 1175 yards, and 6 TD. I don't think the contract situation will be an issue, but there is always the slight chance that the Patriots will start to phase him out a little bit at a time if they think he won't be back next year.

 
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'David Yudkin said:
Welker has proven to be Brady's binky in the passing game. He has averaged 10 tagets a game since coming to NE and I expect that will continue. I think last year saw Welker get a few extra yards than normal, as he had 7 plays for over 30 yards including plays of 73 and 99 yards. That upped his ypc by 1.0-1.5 above normal.

I still see Welker getting 150 targets, 110 receptions, 1175 yards, and 6 TD. I don't think the contract situation will be an issue, but there is always the slight chance that the Patriots will start to phase him out a little bit at a time if they think he won't be back next year.
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I don't mean to nitpick, but these bolded parts don't match. In the end our non-PPR expectations are basically the same (1175/6 vs. 1150/6), but in order for my expectations for Lloyd to pan out, every 10 targets here or there matter... If Lloyd pans out, you think they bring Welker back next year (super expensive franchise tag or huge contract) or just groom Edelman has his heir apparent?

 
'FF Ninja said:
'David Yudkin said:
Welker has proven to be Brady's binky in the passing game. He has averaged 10 tagets a game since coming to NE and I expect that will continue. I think last year saw Welker get a few extra yards than normal, as he had 7 plays for over 30 yards including plays of 73 and 99 yards. That upped his ypc by 1.0-1.5 above normal.

I still see Welker getting 150 targets, 110 receptions, 1175 yards, and 6 TD. I don't think the contract situation will be an issue, but there is always the slight chance that the Patriots will start to phase him out a little bit at a time if they think he won't be back next year.
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I don't mean to nitpick, but these bolded parts don't match. In the end our non-PPR expectations are basically the same (1175/6 vs. 1150/6), but in order for my expectations for Lloyd to pan out, every 10 targets here or there matter... If Lloyd pans out, you think they bring Welker back next year (super expensive franchise tag or huge contract) or just groom Edelman has his heir apparent?
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I think Welker might miss a game, so 15 x 10 = 150 targets.I think the Pats will at least consider franchising him again, as that still financially beats re-signing him to a longer term contact. By that I mean, they would have to pay him roughly $11 million for 2013 with no signing bonus or other guaranteed money. By the time they pay out a salary, bonuses, and gurantees it would SAVE them money to tag him again.

Once he played under the tag two years in a row, few teams would be willing to pay him what he would want now, as I am pretty sure the market for 33 slot receivers won't be paying the likely $10 a year Wlker likely is asking for currently.

I am not sold on Edelman and I don't think the Pats are either. He may be on the roster bubble for this year (although I think he sticks around).

As for Lloyd, I think your targets are probably a tad too high. I outlined what I thought would happen HERE.

That was a few weeks ago. I realize the numbers I cited for Welker there and here are a little different (150-110-1175-6 in this thread, 140-100-1190-6 in the other). Obviously that is a difference of 10 targets and 10 catches, but in the main that's in the same range for total numbers. I still see Welker in the 100-110 range for catches.

You had Lloyd with 120 targets while I had Lloyd with 100.

 
'need2know said:
hey ninja I am curious as to who you have as your top ten WR going into this year? I was thinking welker would be somewhere around 5 but it seems you disagree....
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Well, I don't bother to rank everyone and I don't believe in ranking them on a simple stat projection (that doesn't take into account upside, downside, job security, injury history, etc). So I tend to just look at an ADP and figure who I'm going to target in each round and visualize what corrective measures I'll have to take if the draft doesn't go according to plan. Also, I mainly play non-PPR so Welker's likely sub-1200 yards, sub-8 TDs, doesn't do a lot for me. I'd absolutely rank him outside of the top 10 if I did a ranking. I think Maclin will put up similar numbers in non-PPR.In the current top 10, Calvin, AJ, and Fitz are easy. I think Jennings has less than a 10% chance of justifying his WR4 position, but he's probably fringe top 10. White is definitely out (I've got him at just over 1000/7). AJ Green I'll probably pass on even if he slips, just due to the correlation between elite fantasy QB and elite fantasy WR1. It'll be tough for him to pull off his WR7 price. I'd definitely take Julio Jones top 10. Nicks as well. I'm leery on Wallace being in a new offense and possibly holding out. I like Brandon Marshall's chances of squeezing in and Percy Harvin. Not sure if Bryant will keep Austin out or not, but the guy had been top 12 in non-optimal circumstances for two seasons before last year's injury. I don't think Lloyd makes it in the top 10, but I see him as a fringe guy pretty much in the same vein as Greg Jennings. They'll both probably be 120 target guys with high-ish ypr. They'll both need double digit TDs to get in.So, sorry for the convoluted answer but that's the closest thing I've got to what you asked for. Oh, I think Stevie Johnson deserves a shout out, too. He was WR10 two years ago and dealt with a groin injury all of last year as well as an injury to Fitzpatrick IIRC. He's someone to keep an eye on. Great value at WR24 either way.
 
Not sure why you are down on Jennings. Combining 2010 and 2011 numbers, here were the Top 15 WR based on ppg (0 ppr) and at least 10 games played:

1 Calvin Johnson 14.59

2 Greg Jennings 11.98

3 Kenny Britt 11.89

4 Hakeem Nicks 11.79

5 Roddy White 11.78

6 Andre Johnson 11.63

7 Julio Jones 11.50

8 Mike Wallace 11.33

9 Dwayne Bowe 11.05

10 Wes Welker 10.99

11 Victor Cruz 10.94

12 Terrell Owens 10.88

13 Brandon Lloyd 10.83

14 Larry Fitzgerald 10.59

15 Marques Colston 10.57

 
'David Yudkin said:
Not sure why you are down on Jennings. Combining 2010 and 2011 numbers, here were the Top 15 WR based on ppg (0 ppr) and at least 10 games played:1 Calvin Johnson 14.592 Greg Jennings 11.983 Kenny Britt 11.894 Hakeem Nicks 11.795 Roddy White 11.786 Andre Johnson 11.637 Julio Jones 11.508 Mike Wallace 11.339 Dwayne Bowe 11.0510 Wes Welker 10.9911 Victor Cruz 10.9412 Terrell Owens 10.8813 Brandon Lloyd 10.8314 Larry Fitzgerald 10.5915 Marques Colston 10.57
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really interesting numbers. I am high on jennings as this is also a contract year for him. Fitz is lower than I would have expected. I may lower my overall rank for him. Julio and Roddy both look like good producers, but I was leaning Julio > Roddy anyway due to being able to get Julio a round later....
 
Welker was the #2 WR in my dynasty league last year. Second only to Mega-Jesus himself.

110, 1350, and 6 TDs

 
'David Yudkin said:
Not sure why you are down on Jennings.
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No doubt his ppg numbers have been really good, but he was on pace for 122 targets last year and had 123 the year before. I'd really like my WR1 to get more looks than that. His ppg numbers are largely aided by his 21 TDs in 29 games off of only 143 receptions. He finished WR4 in 2010 with 76/1265/12. With the way Rodgers spreads the ball around, that seems like a ceiling to me and I don't like drafting guys at their ceilings. If he ends up with 75 rec, 15 ypr, and only 8 TDs then he's fringe top 10. His value it too tied to his high TD/rec rate. In 2010, he turned 18 red zone targets into 12 catches for 7 TD (James Jones also saw 18 targets, had 12 receptions, but only 3 TDs). We all know and acknowledge that TDs are highly unpredictable, so I'd rather draft guys coming off of low totals than pay the premium for a guy like Jennings.Another good red zone touchdown example is Mike Williams. In 2010, 19 targets, 8 rec, 7 TD. 2011, 19 targets, 8 rec, 3 TD.
 
I think Brandon Lloyd will eat into Welker's stats more than Gronkowski's or Hernandez's. Welker had a career year in 2011 and he won't get 170 targets this year. I see Brady throwing it a little less in 2012...more near 560-575. Welker has never been a big TD producer and his YPC was inflated in 2011 due to some huge plays (like that 99 yd TD pass in week 1). He's will still post good numbers in a PPR league, but I wouldn't touch him at his current price.

135 targets, 95 rec, 1125 yds, 6 TD

 
Welker has been Brady's security blanket now for 5 seasons. Obviously they have a pretty stellar relationship, but I think that you're going to start to see his usage and YPC decline as he becomes even more of a possession receiver. This year I think we see Aaron Hernandez emerge a little bit more. There's also the addition of Brandon Lloyd, Brady's first deep threat since Moss in 2009. Lloyd is still capable of producing at an elite level and as a result I think he gets a pretty good chunk of targets. When you mix that all together, you get Welker with a reduced role. I think he still gets a healthy number of targets, but I also see those targets being lower value ones with him basically acting as an extended hand off for Brady.

100 Targets, 80 Receptions, 800 Yards, 4 TDs

I know this makes me by far the most bearish here, but I really think that there are only so many balls to go around and with four legitimate, incredibly talented weapons, someone is going to take a step back and I think it's going to be Welker. Hernandez and Gronkowski with Lloyd over the top is simply going to be too difficult for defenses to cover all at once for Brady to need to lean on Welker as much as he has historically. And by the way, he hasn't exactly been the picture of health for the last few years. He might not have had to miss any games, but sometimes the guy who plays through the nagging injury can be just as detrimental to your lineup.

 
'David Yudkin said:
Welker has proven to be Brady's binky in the passing game. He has averaged 10 targets a game since coming to NE and I expect that will continue. I think last year saw Welker get a few extra yards than normal, as he had 7 plays for over 30 yards including plays of 73 and 99 yards. That upped his ypc by 1.0-1.5 above normal.

I still see Welker getting 150 targets, 110 receptions, 1175 yards, and 6 TD. I don't think the contract situation will be an issue, but there is always the slight chance that the Patriots will start to phase him out a little bit at a time if they think he won't be back next year.
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does that really make sense to you?
 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'David Yudkin said:
Welker has proven to be Brady's binky in the passing game. He has averaged 10 targets a game since coming to NE and I expect that will continue. I think last year saw Welker get a few extra yards than normal, as he had 7 plays for over 30 yards including plays of 73 and 99 yards. That upped his ypc by 1.0-1.5 above normal.

I still see Welker getting 150 targets, 110 receptions, 1175 yards, and 6 TD. I don't think the contract situation will be an issue, but there is always the slight chance that the Patriots will start to phase him out a little bit at a time if they think he won't be back next year.
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does that really make sense to you?
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DY seems to live in an increasingly interesting world. I don't think he's been reading Reiss's blog as often as he used to.
 
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I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.

 
Welker's yardage will be down this year from last, and he will never be a guy who scores double digit TDs on a regular basis (and he may never do it), but he should still be good for no worse than 100-1,100-6. If he is healthy, that is his floor.

 
'Jason Wood said:
I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.
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It is difficult because it would take a 2010 Stafford/Brees-esque attempts/game season for Brady. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely. Personally, I don't think a WR3 makes it on the field very much, but like you said, maybe we'll see something out of them that no one is expecting right now.
 
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.
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It is difficult because it would take a 2010 Stafford/Brees-esque attempts/game season for Brady. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely. Personally, I don't think a WR3 makes it on the field very much, but like you said, maybe we'll see something out of them that no one is expecting right now.
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The interesting thing to remember is that Hernandez is really a wide receiver, at least in terms of how they use him. So much so that it was recently reported that his agent is going to argue he's a WR in terms of potential franchise tag designation if it comes to that. I believe I saw a report that Hernandez only had his hand on the ground approximately 20% of the snaps he was on the field in 2011.
 
'Jason Wood said:
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.
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It is difficult because it would take a 2010 Stafford/Brees-esque attempts/game season for Brady. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely. Personally, I don't think a WR3 makes it on the field very much, but like you said, maybe we'll see something out of them that no one is expecting right now.
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The interesting thing to remember is that Hernandez is really a wide receiver, at least in terms of how they use him. So much so that it was recently reported that his agent is going to argue he's a WR in terms of potential franchise tag designation if it comes to that. I believe I saw a report that Hernandez only had his hand on the ground approximately 20% of the snaps he was on the field in 2011.
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think it was 29%.hernandez basically acts as their wr3, and I don't think welker has to sacrifice all that much to fit lloyd in there.

everybody can chip in a little, with branch sacrificing the bulk of it, and there's a ton of room for a rising tide of td's just due to increased efficiency.

 
'Jason Wood said:
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.
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It is difficult because it would take a 2010 Stafford/Brees-esque attempts/game season for Brady. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely. Personally, I don't think a WR3 makes it on the field very much, but like you said, maybe we'll see something out of them that no one is expecting right now.
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The interesting thing to remember is that Hernandez is really a wide receiver, at least in terms of how they use him. So much so that it was recently reported that his agent is going to argue he's a WR in terms of potential franchise tag designation if it comes to that. I believe I saw a report that Hernandez only had his hand on the ground approximately 20% of the snaps he was on the field in 2011.
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Absolutely. That's why I don't have a problem projecting Branch and Gaffney to receive very few targets because they will act as basically a 4th or 5th receiver if/when they make it on the field. I expect Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez to each be on the field at least 85% of offensive snaps if they are all healthy.
 
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.
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It is difficult because it would take a 2010 Stafford/Brees-esque attempts/game season for Brady. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely. Personally, I don't think a WR3 makes it on the field very much, but like you said, maybe we'll see something out of them that no one is expecting right now.
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The interesting thing to remember is that Hernandez is really a wide receiver, at least in terms of how they use him. So much so that it was recently reported that his agent is going to argue he's a WR in terms of potential franchise tag designation if it comes to that. I believe I saw a report that Hernandez only had his hand on the ground approximately 20% of the snaps he was on the field in 2011.
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Absolutely. That's why I don't have a problem projecting Branch and Gaffney to receive very few targets because they will act as basically a 4th or 5th receiver if/when they make it on the field. I expect Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez to each be on the field at least 85% of offensive snaps if they are all healthy.
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I know the league trends in one direction until it doesn't, but it really won't surprise me at all if the Patriots re-assert their running game this year. Belichick zigs when others zag.Intuitively I want to think the "loser" is Brandon Lloyd in that he'll really be asked to fit into a role that involves fewer targets than some expect. But that could be bias because he's the new cog in the wheels.

 
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
'FF Ninja said:
'Jason Wood said:
I have to admit that I'm struggling with the Patriots. It's not everyday you have too many weapons, but right now I have difficulty plugging Brandon Lloyd into this equation without seeing one of the others (Welker, Hernandez and Gronk) being disappointing. I know you could argue that injuries will help balance that out, but I also think Belichick has a willingness -- maybe more than any other coach -- to dramatically reshape the game plan. Just because we're used to seeing things operate a certain way doesn't mean they will in the coming year.
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It is difficult because it would take a 2010 Stafford/Brees-esque attempts/game season for Brady. It's not impossible, but highly unlikely. Personally, I don't think a WR3 makes it on the field very much, but like you said, maybe we'll see something out of them that no one is expecting right now.
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The interesting thing to remember is that Hernandez is really a wide receiver, at least in terms of how they use him. So much so that it was recently reported that his agent is going to argue he's a WR in terms of potential franchise tag designation if it comes to that. I believe I saw a report that Hernandez only had his hand on the ground approximately 20% of the snaps he was on the field in 2011.
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Absolutely. That's why I don't have a problem projecting Branch and Gaffney to receive very few targets because they will act as basically a 4th or 5th receiver if/when they make it on the field. I expect Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez to each be on the field at least 85% of offensive snaps if they are all healthy.
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I still am not buying this. If they only wanted to use essentially 2 TE and 2 WR, they would not have gone out and signed Gaffney, kept Branch, and ventured after Stallworth and Gonzalez.I think one thing which may be over looked here is that the Pats generally have done well in the regular season in recent years but game up short in the playoffs. Some of that may be due to key players being banged up or overused. I don't thing the Pats will rely solely on Gronk / Hernandez / Welker / Lloyd and will have some wrinkles that at present may not seem apparent. Remember, the extensive use of 2 TE was after McDaniels, so who knows what they are thinking. I would suggest that part of the reason last year the key guys saw so many snaps is they had no other capable options. As I have outlined in other threads, the Pats really have had no WR depth one they dumped Moss. Ocho Cinco was supposed to be a big contributor, but that went up in a ball of flames.

If, as you suggest, they will have a bunch of benchwarmers past Welker and Lloyd at WR, then the Pats are basically throwing money away for nothing. If they wanted to stay with what they had, they didn't need to go sign new receivers and/or pay a fair amount of money for guys to sit on the bench.

 
'Jason Wood said:
I know the league trends in one direction until it doesn't, but it really won't surprise me at all if the Patriots re-assert their running game this year. Belichick zigs when others zag.Intuitively I want to think the "loser" is Brandon Lloyd in that he'll really be asked to fit into a role that involves fewer targets than some expect. But that could be bias because he's the new cog in the wheels.
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I still think BB and JM know how their bread is buttered . . . and it's not from the running game. As I just mentioned above, they went out and upgraded their receivers . . . while letting their most proven RB walk. I see the Pats relying on the pass even more this year (which I think is the wrong thing to do), with the running game just good enough that defenses will have to still think about the Pats running in certain situations.The only thing that has kept the Pats rushing attack respectable the past few years has been teams having to defend the pass. When opponents KNEW a run was coming, the Pats generally puked on their shoes. Once everyone in the stadium knew the Pats were going to run or tried to run clock, that was the recipe for a three and out . . . which cost them games and probably another ring or two over the past 7 years since they last won it all.I don't see NE has having the defense to play ground and pound, nor do I see a back that can handle a Dillon-esque workload. NE has seemingly adapted a quick release, dump off passing attack to serve as a running game, and I doubt they will veer far away from that this year.As far as pass distribution, I would guess that Brady will revert back to hitting the open man . . . provided that player is running the right route and can catch the ball. I remember Hernandez dropping a lot of easy passes at key moments last year. We'll have to see if that continues and whether Brady will start looking elsewhere.Part of the reason I think Brady is in for a phenomenal season is he will now have a cadre of receivers that "get it" and know where to go and what to do . . . something that has usually eluded Brady beyond the top passing options. If, as many are suggesting, teams have to worry about the Big 4 . . . that could leave the 5th receiving option wide open (whomever that may be). We may also see occasions where the TEs are the ones staying in to block more than last year (I am not sure the current RB options will be great at blitz pickup). I guess we'll have to see how things play out, but in the main I think the Pats will look to pass first and pass often.
 
assuming gaffney sticks, he's only on the books for a little over a million -- is that so steep for a depth wr?

I agree that josh is the te killer, but would even he really sit hernandez to roll gaffney out there?

I think josh uses his 3 wide sets with hernandez as the 3rd wr, with gaffney being brought in for maybe 10-20% of snaps when they're healthy, and injury filler when not.

 
'Kool-Aid Larry said:
assuming gaffney sticks, he's only on the books for a little over a million -- is that so steep for a depth wr?I agree that josh is the te killer, but would even he really sit hernandez to roll gaffney out there?I think josh uses his 3 wide sets with hernandez as the 3rd wr, with gaffney being brought in for maybe 10-20% of snaps when they're healthy, and injury filler when not.
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IIRC, Branch is in the $1.5-1.8 million range with bonuses and Gaffney clocks in around $1.3 million for this year. If Stallworth sticks, he would be $850,000. Edelman is at $615,000. The Pats will end up paying Slater $2.7 million in real dollars this year (signing bonus + salary).I gue4ss that's not a ton of money for back up receivers, but I would guess that's probably more than most teams (although that is a pure guess).
 
ok, that may be true, but you seem to be assuming all these guys are still there when the season starts, which might not be the case.

also, guys like slater and edelman aren't just there to fill a wr position.

I think it's perfectly natural that the pats look to upgrade branch's spot, and stock the pond with viable candidates who are proven to mcd.

nothing wrong with having quality depth at a position, and competition.

just look at seattle's qb situation.....

they aren't going to run a 3 qb package.

 
I just want to add to this thread that the year Randy absolutely went off, caught for almost 1500 yards and 23 Tds, Welker had 112 for 1175 and 8. That was also his first year in the Pats offense.

 
I think that Welker's targets will likely be minimally impacted by the addition of Lloyd; they play totally dissimilar roles and have completely different strengths as players. Lloyd is at his best down the field and outside, behind the defense, while Weller makes his living underneath. Welker is really almost like the Pats "ground game" and I'd be more inclined to bump him down if they had focused on RBs this off-season as opposed to bringing in a bunch of new WRs. Welker's YPC looks like the outlier to me from 2011, the targets and catches were par for the course for him (year after the ACL excepted).

115 - 1250 - 7 TDs and still a PPR stud.

 
'David Yudkin said:
I still am not buying this. If they only wanted to use essentially 2 TE and 2 WR, they would not have gone out and signed Gaffney, kept Branch, and ventured after Stallworth and Gonzalez.I think one thing which may be over looked here is that the Pats generally have done well in the regular season in recent years but game up short in the playoffs. Some of that may be due to key players being banged up or overused. I don't thing the Pats will rely solely on Gronk / Hernandez / Welker / Lloyd and will have some wrinkles that at present may not seem apparent. Remember, the extensive use of 2 TE was after McDaniels, so who knows what they are thinking. I would suggest that part of the reason last year the key guys saw so many snaps is they had no other capable options. As I have outlined in other threads, the Pats really have had no WR depth one they dumped Moss. Ocho Cinco was supposed to be a big contributor, but that went up in a ball of flames.If, as you suggest, they will have a bunch of benchwarmers past Welker and Lloyd at WR, then the Pats are basically throwing money away for nothing. If they wanted to stay with what they had, they didn't need to go sign new receivers and/or pay a fair amount of money for guys to sit on the bench.
Click to expand...
I really think you are over-thinking this. It is not like they brought in legitimate WR2s and paid them like WR2s. In all likelihood, only two of Branch, Gaffney, and Stallworth are still on the team in two months. And if they are, they are there for depth. Seeing as Hernandez has missed time both of his seasons and plays most of his snaps as a WR, there is good reason to sign some WR depth. Also, given Ochocinco's flop, they need some insurance if Lloyd doesn't pan out (or gets hurt). I think their salaries are in line for those roles. I will be absolutely shocked if another WR gets 50 targets if those 4 main guys stay healthy.The Texans were paying Jacoby Jones more than Gaffney, Branch, or Stallworth are making and we really struggled without AJ. Every team needs a contingency plan. You can't just have street free agents backing up your starters. Sounds like these guys are barely making much above veteran minimum.
 
'FF Ninja said:
'David Yudkin said:
I still am not buying this. If they only wanted to use essentially 2 TE and 2 WR, they would not have gone out and signed Gaffney, kept Branch, and ventured after Stallworth and Gonzalez.I think one thing which may be over looked here is that the Pats generally have done well in the regular season in recent years but game up short in the playoffs. Some of that may be due to key players being banged up or overused. I don't thing the Pats will rely solely on Gronk / Hernandez / Welker / Lloyd and will have some wrinkles that at present may not seem apparent. Remember, the extensive use of 2 TE was after McDaniels, so who knows what they are thinking. I would suggest that part of the reason last year the key guys saw so many snaps is they had no other capable options. As I have outlined in other threads, the Pats really have had no WR depth one they dumped Moss. Ocho Cinco was supposed to be a big contributor, but that went up in a ball of flames.If, as you suggest, they will have a bunch of benchwarmers past Welker and Lloyd at WR, then the Pats are basically throwing money away for nothing. If they wanted to stay with what they had, they didn't need to go sign new receivers and/or pay a fair amount of money for guys to sit on the bench.
Click to expand...
I really think you are over-thinking this. It is not like they brought in legitimate WR2s and paid them like WR2s. In all likelihood, only two of Branch, Gaffney, and Stallworth are still on the team in two months. And if they are, they are there for depth. Seeing as Hernandez has missed time both of his seasons and plays most of his snaps as a WR, there is good reason to sign some WR depth. Also, given Ochocinco's flop, they need some insurance if Lloyd doesn't pan out (or gets hurt). I think their salaries are in line for those roles. I will be absolutely shocked if another WR gets 50 targets if those 4 main guys stay healthy.The Texans were paying Jacoby Jones more than Gaffney, Branch, or Stallworth are making and we really struggled without AJ. Every team needs a contingency plan. You can't just have street free agents backing up your starters. Sounds like these guys are barely making much above veteran minimum.
Click to expand...
Who has Brady had to throw to at WR besides Welker in recent seasons? Pretty much no one. That's why they were looking to acquire Branch, as he knew the system and did decent since coming back to NE. Branch has had basically 6.5 targets per game since his return to the Pats.When was the last time the Pats had more than 4 legit receiving threats? Receptions after the Top 4:2011 Woodhead 18, Ocho Cinco 152010 Woodhead 24, Tate 242009 Watson 29, Aiken 202007 Watson 36, Gaffney 362006 Gabriel 25, Maroney 222005 Watson 29, Dillon 222004 Pass 28, Faulk 262003 Givens 34, Fauria 282002 Smith 31, Fauria 272001 Smith 19, Glenn 14I would suggest that the current Patriots offense is most similar to the 2007 Pats (added receivers, multiple receiving threats, no real bell cow RB, seemingly easy schedule, McDaniels as OC, etc.). That team went 6 deep in terms of guys with 30+ receptions. I think we could see that again this year.I think teams will try to better defend the middle of the field and try as best as possible to neutratlize the tight ends . . . leaving other guys open that Brady will be more likely to target than he did last year (as they really didn't have many other options). Bracnh pretty much ran out patterns along the sideline and not much else.As far as Gaffney goes, after all these years of being a puzzle piece and a depth player, why would he pick to go back to the Pats if he was never going to play when he FINALLY had become a starter?
 
'David Yudkin said:
'FF Ninja said:
'David Yudkin said:
I still am not buying this. If they only wanted to use essentially 2 TE and 2 WR, they would not have gone out and signed Gaffney, kept Branch, and ventured after Stallworth and Gonzalez.I think one thing which may be over looked here is that the Pats generally have done well in the regular season in recent years but game up short in the playoffs. Some of that may be due to key players being banged up or overused. I don't thing the Pats will rely solely on Gronk / Hernandez / Welker / Lloyd and will have some wrinkles that at present may not seem apparent. Remember, the extensive use of 2 TE was after McDaniels, so who knows what they are thinking. I would suggest that part of the reason last year the key guys saw so many snaps is they had no other capable options. As I have outlined in other threads, the Pats really have had no WR depth one they dumped Moss. Ocho Cinco was supposed to be a big contributor, but that went up in a ball of flames.If, as you suggest, they will have a bunch of benchwarmers past Welker and Lloyd at WR, then the Pats are basically throwing money away for nothing. If they wanted to stay with what they had, they didn't need to go sign new receivers and/or pay a fair amount of money for guys to sit on the bench.
Click to expand...
I really think you are over-thinking this. It is not like they brought in legitimate WR2s and paid them like WR2s. In all likelihood, only two of Branch, Gaffney, and Stallworth are still on the team in two months. And if they are, they are there for depth. Seeing as Hernandez has missed time both of his seasons and plays most of his snaps as a WR, there is good reason to sign some WR depth. Also, given Ochocinco's flop, they need some insurance if Lloyd doesn't pan out (or gets hurt). I think their salaries are in line for those roles. I will be absolutely shocked if another WR gets 50 targets if those 4 main guys stay healthy.The Texans were paying Jacoby Jones more than Gaffney, Branch, or Stallworth are making and we really struggled without AJ. Every team needs a contingency plan. You can't just have street free agents backing up your starters. Sounds like these guys are barely making much above veteran minimum.
Click to expand...
Who has Brady had to throw to at WR besides Welker in recent seasons? Pretty much no one. That's why they were looking to acquire Branch, as he knew the system and did decent since coming back to NE. Branch has had basically 6.5 targets per game since his return to the Pats.When was the last time the Pats had more than 4 legit receiving threats? Receptions after the Top 4:2011 Woodhead 18, Ocho Cinco 152010 Woodhead 24, Tate 242009 Watson 29, Aiken 202007 Watson 36, Gaffney 362006 Gabriel 25, Maroney 222005 Watson 29, Dillon 222004 Pass 28, Faulk 262003 Givens 34, Fauria 282002 Smith 31, Fauria 272001 Smith 19, Glenn 14I would suggest that the current Patriots offense is most similar to the 2007 Pats (added receivers, multiple receiving threats, no real bell cow RB, seemingly easy schedule, McDaniels as OC, etc.). That team went 6 deep in terms of guys with 30+ receptions. I think we could see that again this year.I think teams will try to better defend the middle of the field and try as best as possible to neutratlize the tight ends . . . leaving other guys open that Brady will be more likely to target than he did last year (as they really didn't have many other options). Bracnh pretty much ran out patterns along the sideline and not much else.As far as Gaffney goes, after all these years of being a puzzle piece and a depth player, why would he pick to go back to the Pats if he was never going to play when he FINALLY had become a starter?
Click to expand...
The offense may resemble 2007 in some ways, but do you completely discount the fact that Belichick is going to surprise everyone and go to a more run-oriented offense?
 
'David Yudkin said:
'FF Ninja said:
'David Yudkin said:
I still am not buying this. If they only wanted to use essentially 2 TE and 2 WR, they would not have gone out and signed Gaffney, kept Branch, and ventured after Stallworth and Gonzalez.I think one thing which may be over looked here is that the Pats generally have done well in the regular season in recent years but game up short in the playoffs. Some of that may be due to key players being banged up or overused. I don't thing the Pats will rely solely on Gronk / Hernandez / Welker / Lloyd and will have some wrinkles that at present may not seem apparent. Remember, the extensive use of 2 TE was after McDaniels, so who knows what they are thinking. I would suggest that part of the reason last year the key guys saw so many snaps is they had no other capable options. As I have outlined in other threads, the Pats really have had no WR depth one they dumped Moss. Ocho Cinco was supposed to be a big contributor, but that went up in a ball of flames.If, as you suggest, they will have a bunch of benchwarmers past Welker and Lloyd at WR, then the Pats are basically throwing money away for nothing. If they wanted to stay with what they had, they didn't need to go sign new receivers and/or pay a fair amount of money for guys to sit on the bench.
Click to expand...
I really think you are over-thinking this. It is not like they brought in legitimate WR2s and paid them like WR2s. In all likelihood, only two of Branch, Gaffney, and Stallworth are still on the team in two months. And if they are, they are there for depth. Seeing as Hernandez has missed time both of his seasons and plays most of his snaps as a WR, there is good reason to sign some WR depth. Also, given Ochocinco's flop, they need some insurance if Lloyd doesn't pan out (or gets hurt). I think their salaries are in line for those roles. I will be absolutely shocked if another WR gets 50 targets if those 4 main guys stay healthy.The Texans were paying Jacoby Jones more than Gaffney, Branch, or Stallworth are making and we really struggled without AJ. Every team needs a contingency plan. You can't just have street free agents backing up your starters. Sounds like these guys are barely making much above veteran minimum.
Click to expand...
Who has Brady had to throw to at WR besides Welker in recent seasons? Pretty much no one. That's why they were looking to acquire Branch, as he knew the system and did decent since coming back to NE. Branch has had basically 6.5 targets per game since his return to the Pats.When was the last time the Pats had more than 4 legit receiving threats? Receptions after the Top 4:2011 Woodhead 18, Ocho Cinco 152010 Woodhead 24, Tate 242009 Watson 29, Aiken 202007 Watson 36, Gaffney 362006 Gabriel 25, Maroney 222005 Watson 29, Dillon 222004 Pass 28, Faulk 262003 Givens 34, Fauria 282002 Smith 31, Fauria 272001 Smith 19, Glenn 14I would suggest that the current Patriots offense is most similar to the 2007 Pats (added receivers, multiple receiving threats, no real bell cow RB, seemingly easy schedule, McDaniels as OC, etc.). That team went 6 deep in terms of guys with 30+ receptions. I think we could see that again this year.I think teams will try to better defend the middle of the field and try as best as possible to neutratlize the tight ends . . . leaving other guys open that Brady will be more likely to target than he did last year (as they really didn't have many other options). Bracnh pretty much ran out patterns along the sideline and not much else.As far as Gaffney goes, after all these years of being a puzzle piece and a depth player, why would he pick to go back to the Pats if he was never going to play when he FINALLY had become a starter?
Click to expand...
Dude......Don't use this specious nonsense - I hate when ppl on here read minds and present it as fact.If you want to be a detective take a look at the contract Gaffney took and tell me what kind of big money he turned down to stary this year for wash.You make it sound like he was locked in as a starter and theu only paid that garcon money because he wouldn't take it.He was out of work and the pats took him back - same as mcd
 
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'Kool-Aid Larry said:
'David Yudkin said:
Who has Brady had to throw to at WR besides Welker in recent seasons? Pretty much no one. That's why they were looking to acquire Branch, as he knew the system and did decent since coming back to NE. Branch has had basically 6.5 targets per game since his return to the Pats.When was the last time the Pats had more than 4 legit receiving threats? Receptions after the Top 4:2011 Woodhead 18, Ocho Cinco 152010 Woodhead 24, Tate 242009 Watson 29, Aiken 202007 Watson 36, Gaffney 362006 Gabriel 25, Maroney 222005 Watson 29, Dillon 222004 Pass 28, Faulk 262003 Givens 34, Fauria 282002 Smith 31, Fauria 272001 Smith 19, Glenn 14I would suggest that the current Patriots offense is most similar to the 2007 Pats (added receivers, multiple receiving threats, no real bell cow RB, seemingly easy schedule, McDaniels as OC, etc.). That team went 6 deep in terms of guys with 30+ receptions. I think we could see that again this year.I think teams will try to better defend the middle of the field and try as best as possible to neutratlize the tight ends . . . leaving other guys open that Brady will be more likely to target than he did last year (as they really didn't have many other options). Bracnh pretty much ran out patterns along the sideline and not much else.As far as Gaffney goes, after all these years of being a puzzle piece and a depth player, why would he pick to go back to the Pats if he was never going to play when he FINALLY had become a starter?
Click to expand...
Dude......Don't use this specious nonsense - I hate when ppl on here read minds and present it as fact.If you want to be a detective take a look at the contract Gaffney took and tell me what kind of big money he turned down to stary this year for wash.You make it sound like he was locked in as a starter and theu only paid that garcon money because he wouldn't take it.He was out of work and the pats took him back - same as mcd
Click to expand...
I disagree with him but I don't actually think he's presenting anything as fact. He seems to make it pretty clear all of that is his opinion. But I totally agree with you in that Gaffney wasn't going to start for Washington or anywhere else so he decided to go back and try to win a championship as a WR3/4 on a team he was familiar with. Gaffney wouldn't even be the WR3 on the Redskins this year. Plus, the market isn't exactly strong for WRs. I know Braylon Edwards has had problems but I don't even think he's had an offer.As for David's comparison, I think the presence of Gronk and to a lesser extent Hernandez makes this much less like the 2007 team. I mean, the TE1 and TE2 saw 49 and 16 targets. Kevin Faulk had the third most receptions with 47. So of course there was room for the 5th and 6th receiving options to catch 30+ balls. And the largest factor, there wasn't much talent discrepancy between the guys behind Welker and Moss. So the 3rd target and 6th target were pretty similar in talent. But now you've got 4 really solid, some even elite talents, and then a huge drop off to the 5th best target. So 2007 and 2012 seem like apples and oranges to me.
 
people are always comparing the unknown to something familiar to try to understand it, or visualize it.

just look at the constant 'apples to oranges' metaphor we get in every thread (no offense) -- people are familiar with apples and oranges, so they lean on it as a word picture instead of just presenting a case.

the reality is that 2007 is 2007, 2008 is 2008, 2012 will be 2012, etc, and while various years might be comparable in some respects, they will most likely be different in others.

what that means to me is that it's perfectly fine to look at a team and draw a parallel in one particular aspect, or another, but to just bluntly draw some weak equivalence between any 2 years is probably pointless.

basically, both you and david make valid points, in my opinion, and the trick is to dope out the future, not figure out what they did 5 years ago.

there are similarities to 2007 in some of their personnel, and differences in others.

I think the key decision we need to make is what kind of role the te actually has on josh's 2012 offense, because historically he seems to prefer the wr.

but, of course, he hasn't had a gronk in the past.

 
No offense taken, because while I did use the phrase I also presented a strong case for why comparing 2007 to 2012 is like comparing apples to oranges.

Bottom line is that this has been pretty well discussed. Not a whole lot of new angles to look at this from. We're all probably going to think about this at draft time pretty much how we think about it now. Personally, I plan to draft Lloyd with confidence a round early (in the 5th) in every draft as my WR3.

 
I’m selling high on Welker.

It’s not that I fault him for dropping the pass that could have sealed the Patriots 4th SB (I’m not a Pats fan – but I know this has been cause for debate). But from my vantage point, Bill Belichick is not one to malinger over being loyal to a declining veteran. It’s not even that Welker is in decline. But it’s his usefulness to the Patriots that is in decline.

When Welker became the force that he became, he did so because defenses all of a sudden had to deal with the prospect of Brady-to-Randy Moss. The electricity of this combination and what it produced in 2007 was off the charts. And while it’s entirely possible that Welker would have realized success with Brady sans Moss…what he was able to establish during the next 5 seasons was an ability to get open in short space in positions to generate YAC. With defenses focused on Moss…it was unreal the amount of latitude Welker had to fine tune and perfect this craft.

Except in the last 2 years, the Patriots have developed two of the best TE’s in the game. Both are young, spry talents who have allowed the Patriots to once again change the complexion of their passing game again to one that produces match-up headaches for defenses when both are on the field. How do you defend against an offense that can feature two prolific pass catching options that can also be called upon to provide in-line blocking? The problem for Welker eventually is that there is simply going to be some redundancy in terms of what Gronkowski/Hernandez do…and what Welker does. Certainly they do it differently, but the contrast between Gronk/Hernandez/Welker is much smaller than Welker/Moss.

Brandon Lloyd was brought in to provide a consistent deep threat element to the Patriots passing game. Lloyd, hampered by trades and ineffective QB play in 2011 was 4.5 speed flypaper the year prior. It is Lloyd that now provide the passing game contrast in the New England attack. And while Welker will probably still wind up with more targets than Lloyd…it’s Lloyd that will be the bigger play threat as Welker will be forced to fight for his productivity amongst Gronkowski and Hernandez.

It’s fair to look at how the Patriots have handled the possibility of a long term contract with Welker (they’ve essentially ignored him) to see the writing on the wall. Welker won’t disappear to be sure, but he becomes a less integral part of the passing game as the ever evolving Belichick continues to churn out powerhouse after powerhouse, gradually weeding out elements of the past to accommodate factors of the future.

Prediction: 87 Receptions; 949 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.

 
'TheDirtyWord said:
I’m selling high on Welker.

It’s not that I fault him for dropping the pass that could have sealed the Patriots 4th SB (I’m not a Pats fan – but I know this has been cause for debate). But from my vantage point, Bill Belichick is not one to malinger over being loyal to a declining veteran. It’s not even that Welker is in decline. But it’s his usefulness to the Patriots that is in decline.

When Welker became the force that he became, he did so because defenses all of a sudden had to deal with the prospect of Brady-to-Randy Moss. The electricity of this combination and what it produced in 2007 was off the charts. And while it’s entirely possible that Welker would have realized success with Brady sans Moss…what he was able to establish during the next 5 seasons was an ability to get open in short space in positions to generate YAC. With defenses focused on Moss…it was unreal the amount of latitude Welker had to fine tune and perfect this craft.

Except in the last 2 years, the Patriots have developed two of the best TE’s in the game. Both are young, spry talents who have allowed the Patriots to once again change the complexion of their passing game again to one that produces match-up headaches for defenses when both are on the field. How do you defend against an offense that can feature two prolific pass catching options that can also be called upon to provide in-line blocking? The problem for Welker eventually is that there is simply going to be some redundancy in terms of what Gronkowski/Hernandez do…and what Welker does. Certainly they do it differently, but the contrast between Gronk/Hernandez/Welker is much smaller than Welker/Moss.

Brandon Lloyd was brought in to provide a consistent deep threat element to the Patriots passing game. Lloyd, hampered by trades and ineffective QB play in 2011 was 4.5 speed flypaper the year prior. It is Lloyd that now provide the passing game contrast in the New England attack. And while Welker will probably still wind up with more targets than Lloyd…it’s Lloyd that will be the bigger play threat as Welker will be forced to fight for his productivity amongst Gronkowski and Hernandez.

It’s fair to look at how the Patriots have handled the possibility of a long term contract with Welker (they’ve essentially ignored him) to see the writing on the wall. Welker won’t disappear to be sure, but he becomes a less integral part of the passing game as the ever evolving Belichick continues to churn out powerhouse after powerhouse, gradually weeding out elements of the past to accommodate factors of the future.

Prediction: 87 Receptions; 949 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.
Click to expand...
TDW...I don't say it enough, but I have to give you major props for being such a consistent and thoughtful contributor to the Spotlights. :thumbup: This is a BOLD prediction, although probably not as far outside the baseline of his expected outcomes as people think.

 
'Jason Wood said:
'TheDirtyWord said:
I’m selling high on Welker.

It’s not that I fault him for dropping the pass that could have sealed the Patriots 4th SB (I’m not a Pats fan – but I know this has been cause for debate). But from my vantage point, Bill Belichick is not one to malinger over being loyal to a declining veteran. It’s not even that Welker is in decline. But it’s his usefulness to the Patriots that is in decline.

When Welker became the force that he became, he did so because defenses all of a sudden had to deal with the prospect of Brady-to-Randy Moss. The electricity of this combination and what it produced in 2007 was off the charts. And while it’s entirely possible that Welker would have realized success with Brady sans Moss…what he was able to establish during the next 5 seasons was an ability to get open in short space in positions to generate YAC. With defenses focused on Moss…it was unreal the amount of latitude Welker had to fine tune and perfect this craft.

Except in the last 2 years, the Patriots have developed two of the best TE’s in the game. Both are young, spry talents who have allowed the Patriots to once again change the complexion of their passing game again to one that produces match-up headaches for defenses when both are on the field. How do you defend against an offense that can feature two prolific pass catching options that can also be called upon to provide in-line blocking? The problem for Welker eventually is that there is simply going to be some redundancy in terms of what Gronkowski/Hernandez do…and what Welker does. Certainly they do it differently, but the contrast between Gronk/Hernandez/Welker is much smaller than Welker/Moss.

Brandon Lloyd was brought in to provide a consistent deep threat element to the Patriots passing game. Lloyd, hampered by trades and ineffective QB play in 2011 was 4.5 speed flypaper the year prior. It is Lloyd that now provide the passing game contrast in the New England attack. And while Welker will probably still wind up with more targets than Lloyd…it’s Lloyd that will be the bigger play threat as Welker will be forced to fight for his productivity amongst Gronkowski and Hernandez.

It’s fair to look at how the Patriots have handled the possibility of a long term contract with Welker (they’ve essentially ignored him) to see the writing on the wall. Welker won’t disappear to be sure, but he becomes a less integral part of the passing game as the ever evolving Belichick continues to churn out powerhouse after powerhouse, gradually weeding out elements of the past to accommodate factors of the future.

Prediction: 87 Receptions; 949 Receiving Yards, 4 TD’s.
Click to expand...
TDW...I don't say it enough, but I have to give you major props for being such a consistent and thoughtful contributor to the Spotlights. :thumbup: This is a BOLD prediction, although probably not as far outside the baseline of his expected outcomes as people think.
Click to expand...
Thanks - to me, this is fun. The reason why I come to the boards is to hear thought out opinions on players that get me to see different sides of an argument. I feel an oppotunity is being lost when I see someone simply post stats without context. The 'why' is the value here so I just look to do my part.
 
I believe last season was about the best we'll see from Welker, and I think the Patriots realize it as well considering how they've approached working with Welker on a long term contract extension. The Patriots organization wants him, but not at the price Welker thinks he's worth.

I have no doubt that Welker will contribute to the team for at least the next year, but beyond that is questionable at this point. I could envision a situation where Welker, which will be age 32 after this season, is not resigned and tests the free agency market.

I'm selling high on Welker this offseason in Dynasty Leagues. His age and potential decline in production will only make it harder to move him for relative value after this upcoming season. In Redraft PPR, he'll still be quite valuable, at least for this upcoming year.

95/1100/5 is my prediction.

 
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Welker made $18.1 million over the last five seasons. Did he SIGNIFICANTLY outperform that deal? Of course. But he also understands that the Patriots don't play games with their ducats. He took all his leverage away when he said he had every intention of signing the tender. He literally has zero leverage. If I were him, I would be careful. If the Patriots offensive engine is as potent as most expect, and Lloyd lives up to the billing, Welker could find the NEXT contract offer far less enticing in 2013 than the one he's saying on to this year.

 
By Gregg RosenthalAround The League editorPublished: Sept. 10, 2012 at 09:09 a.m. Updated: Sept. 10, 2012 at 09:40 a.m.An offseason of contract unrest between Wes Welker and the New England Patriots gave way to a first regular season game filled with inactivity.Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com notes that Welker only played 43 of 67 snaps against the Titans. That's 64 percent, down dramatically from the 89 percent he played during the 2011 season, according to Reiss. Welker had only three catches for 14 yards and a potential first down went off his facemask early in the game.Welker basically split snaps with Julian Edelman, who took his spot in the slot on roughly one third of the team's snaps. The Patriots vary their gameplan dramatically from one week to the next, so perhaps this is just a blip on the radar.Then again, perhaps it's a sign the offense is moving even more toward the team's two young tight ends and Brandon Lloyd. Perhaps it's a sign of what life would be like without Welker.
Click to expand...
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000060366/article/wes-welker-splits-snaps-with-julian-edelman :unsure:
 
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