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Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Roddy White Player Page

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Roddy White has been one of, if not the most, consistent WR in fantasy football over the last 5 seasons. The two primary concerns with White headed into 2012 are his age (30), and his primary competition for targets (Julio Jones). I don't think that either will keep him away from another top 5 season in PPR formats, however. White has certainly showed no real signs of slowing down, and while Julio Jones is a verifiable monster, that does not erase the outstanding rapport that White has with Matt Ryan. Many people point to Julio Jones' awesome stats while on the field in 2011, but what people don't realize is that down the stretch, it was not just Julio but the entire Falcons offense that was clicking. In fact, White posted 57/795/5 in the second half last year despite Julio's presence. I think Jones definately gets his, but I'm feeling a big year for the Falcons offense:

Projection-181 Target/106 REC/13.3 YPR/1410 YDS/10 TDs

 
This reminds me alot of the 2000 Rams situations with Bruce and Holt. Bruce had been the man for so long but Holts talent was undeniable that everyone waited for Holt to unseat Bruce as the teams #1. What you saw for a couple of years was the 2 compliment each other perfectly and put up great stats. In the long run I do think Julio could be great but I am not ready to appoint him yet as the teams #1.

White should continue his consistent play

100 catches

1400 yards

9 tds

 
Roddy saw a league high 179 targets last year, including an astounding 85 from weeks 11-16, when fantasy owners are watching the closest.

Julio Jones missed some time last year and obviously didn't have training camp to learn the system. Yet he still caught more of his targets (57.4% vs 55.9%) and had a much higher ypr (17.8 vs. 13.0) and a much higher TD/rec ratio (8/59 vs. 8/100).

With a new OC in ATL, I can't see a reason for them to keep feeding the ball to Roddy. I think his targets slip a lot. At least 20%, maybe more. You don't see a lot of guys getting 150+ targets and now he appears to be the 2nd best WR on the team.

140 targets x 56% = 78 rec x 13 ypr = 1014 yds 6 TD

 
Roddy White is still Matt Ryan’s most trusted weapon. Even moreso than Tony Gonzalez. But it is clear that the Falcons passing game is about to change. And while Julio Jones has a lot to do with this…the more impactful reason for this shift away from Roddy will be because the Falcons will truly be a passing team first with Mike Mularkey having left.

Is no that he Falcons didn’t pass the ball under Mularkey. They actually passed the ball quite a bit – Matt Ryan ranked 2nd in the NFL over the last 2 seasons behind only Drew Brees in pass attempts. The issue for the Falcons is that rarely did their passing attack seem to put a defense on their heels. In certain ways, the Falcons passing attack was proficient. They could put long drives together which required the ability to be effective on 3rd down. And to be fair, the Falcons offense has not struggled during the Mike Smith era in putting up points (they’ve averaged 24.5 PPG). But as you watched the Falcons over a period of time, it felt that the Falcons had to follow a certain style script for them to be effective on offense. Establish the ground game, compliment that with a low risk passing attack. Get up early, wear down your opponent…allow the clock to expire with you having scored more points than them. And again, to be fair, this methodology has generated a 43-21 record. So it was not without its merits. But 0-3 in the playoffs has changed everything. It’s not as easy to dictate pace of play against the leagues better teams. And while the Falcons rarely suffered missteps against inferior competition, they were hit and miss against better teams.

How this changes the game for Roddy White specifically is this. Over the last 4 seasons, White has led the NFL in receptions for 1st downs with 265. The Falcons offense has been predicated on consistent production in getting 1st downs. Matt Ryan would even stress this as a priority in interviews. While 1st downs are important no doubt, you’ll see the Falcons under Dirk Koetter place more of an emphasis on 1) explosive plays 2) distribution of targets.

Even if you say Julio Jones played in only 12 games, because he missed parts of 2 with an injury, Roddy outpaced Julio in targets 11.3 to 8. There is simply no way this target disparity will happen again. Even if it’s a reduction of 1 target/game for Roddy White, that still represents 10 receptions lost. That’s just related to losing targets to Julio. But add in the fact that the Falcons have talked a big game thus far as it replates to involving Jacquizz Rodgers more in the screen game and Harry Douglas in the slot…and the potential for an even steeper decline is there.

One thing to note – White had his worst stretch as a Falcons probably during the first half of the 2011 season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes he normally came down with and at times seemed distracted. For whatever reason, the Falcons insistence/desire to get the ball to Julio Jones early on in the season seemed to stick in White’s craw a bit. When the best WR opposite you for your career is Michael Jenkins, it’s easy to get used to being ‘THE guy’. When the Falcons started targeting White more, he got the train back on track and played much better in the seasons second half. But the point is that he wasn’t as efficient in 2011 as he had been previously IMO. He’s talking like a guy who understands Julio’s talent and the need to better distribute targets now and the hope for Falcons fans is that he’ll maintain a level of reliability over 16 games in 2012 that he didn’t in 2011 (but which he demonstrated in 2010). But I suspect he’ll see 30-40 fewer targets in 2012 which while still meaning WR1 production, will not challenge the upper tier at this position.

Prediction: 87 Receptions, 1192 Receiving Yards, 7 TD’s

 
Roddy White is still Matt Ryan’s most trusted weapon. Even moreso than Tony Gonzalez. But it is clear that the Falcons passing game is about to change. And while Julio Jones has a lot to do with this…the more impactful reason for this shift away from Roddy will be because the Falcons will truly be a passing team first with Mike Mularkey having left.

Is no that he Falcons didn’t pass the ball under Mularkey. They actually passed the ball quite a bit – Matt Ryan ranked 2nd in the NFL over the last 2 seasons behind only Drew Brees in pass attempts. The issue for the Falcons is that rarely did their passing attack seem to put a defense on their heels. In certain ways, the Falcons passing attack was proficient. They could put long drives together which required the ability to be effective on 3rd down. And to be fair, the Falcons offense has not struggled during the Mike Smith era in putting up points (they’ve averaged 24.5 PPG). But as you watched the Falcons over a period of time, it felt that the Falcons had to follow a certain style script for them to be effective on offense. Establish the ground game, compliment that with a low risk passing attack. Get up early, wear down your opponent…allow the clock to expire with you having scored more points than them. And again, to be fair, this methodology has generated a 43-21 record. So it was not without its merits. But 0-3 in the playoffs has changed everything. It’s not as easy to dictate pace of play against the leagues better teams. And while the Falcons rarely suffered missteps against inferior competition, they were hit and miss against better teams.

How this changes the game for Roddy White specifically is this. Over the last 4 seasons, White has led the NFL in receptions for 1st downs with 265. The Falcons offense has been predicated on consistent production in getting 1st downs. Matt Ryan would even stress this as a priority in interviews. While 1st downs are important no doubt, you’ll see the Falcons under Dirk Koetter place more of an emphasis on 1) explosive plays 2) distribution of targets.

Even if you say Julio Jones played in only 12 games, because he missed parts of 2 with an injury, Roddy outpaced Julio in targets 11.3 to 8. There is simply no way this target disparity will happen again. Even if it’s a reduction of 1 target/game for Roddy White, that still represents 10 receptions lost. That’s just related to losing targets to Julio. But add in the fact that the Falcons have talked a big game thus far as it replates to involving Jacquizz Rodgers more in the screen game and Harry Douglas in the slot…and the potential for an even steeper decline is there.

One thing to note – White had his worst stretch as a Falcons probably during the first half of the 2011 season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes he normally came down with and at times seemed distracted. For whatever reason, the Falcons insistence/desire to get the ball to Julio Jones early on in the season seemed to stick in White’s craw a bit. When the best WR opposite you for your career is Michael Jenkins, it’s easy to get used to being ‘THE guy’. When the Falcons started targeting White more, he got the train back on track and played much better in the seasons second half. But the point is that he wasn’t as efficient in 2011 as he had been previously IMO. He’s talking like a guy who understands Julio’s talent and the need to better distribute targets now and the hope for Falcons fans is that he’ll maintain a level of reliability over 16 games in 2012 that he didn’t in 2011 (but which he demonstrated in 2010). But I suspect he’ll see 30-40 fewer targets in 2012 which while still meaning WR1 production, will not challenge the upper tier at this position.

Prediction: 87 Receptions, 1192 Receiving Yards, 7 TD’s
Awesome analysis here, Thanks
 
90/1225/9

One of the safest WR picks you can make for a WR1. Julio= more space on the field for White. Yeah he is going to lose looks but he actually played better with Julio on the field last year.

Games without Julio: 4.7 catch per game for 73 yards and 1 TD

Games with Julio: 6.6 grabs for 83 yards with 7 TD's.

 
90/1225/9

One of the safest WR picks you can make for a WR1. Julio= more space on the field for White. Yeah he is going to lose looks but he actually played better with Julio on the field last year.

He's criminally undervalued and easily could outperform Julio.

Games without Julio: 4.7 catch per game for 73 yards and 1 TD

Games with Julio: 6.6 grabs for 83 yards with 7 TD's.
 
Roddy White is still Matt Ryan’s most trusted weapon. Even moreso than Tony Gonzalez. But it is clear that the Falcons passing game is about to change. And while Julio Jones has a lot to do with this…the more impactful reason for this shift away from Roddy will be because the Falcons will truly be a passing team first with Mike Mularkey having left.

Is no that he Falcons didn’t pass the ball under Mularkey. They actually passed the ball quite a bit – Matt Ryan ranked 2nd in the NFL over the last 2 seasons behind only Drew Brees in pass attempts. The issue for the Falcons is that rarely did their passing attack seem to put a defense on their heels. In certain ways, the Falcons passing attack was proficient. They could put long drives together which required the ability to be effective on 3rd down. And to be fair, the Falcons offense has not struggled during the Mike Smith era in putting up points (they’ve averaged 24.5 PPG). But as you watched the Falcons over a period of time, it felt that the Falcons had to follow a certain style script for them to be effective on offense. Establish the ground game, compliment that with a low risk passing attack. Get up early, wear down your opponent…allow the clock to expire with you having scored more points than them. And again, to be fair, this methodology has generated a 43-21 record. So it was not without its merits. But 0-3 in the playoffs has changed everything. It’s not as easy to dictate pace of play against the leagues better teams. And while the Falcons rarely suffered missteps against inferior competition, they were hit and miss against better teams.

How this changes the game for Roddy White specifically is this. Over the last 4 seasons, White has led the NFL in receptions for 1st downs with 265. The Falcons offense has been predicated on consistent production in getting 1st downs. Matt Ryan would even stress this as a priority in interviews. While 1st downs are important no doubt, you’ll see the Falcons under Dirk Koetter place more of an emphasis on 1) explosive plays 2) distribution of targets.

Even if you say Julio Jones played in only 12 games, because he missed parts of 2 with an injury, Roddy outpaced Julio in targets 11.3 to 8. There is simply no way this target disparity will happen again. Even if it’s a reduction of 1 target/game for Roddy White, that still represents 10 receptions lost. That’s just related to losing targets to Julio. But add in the fact that the Falcons have talked a big game thus far as it replates to involving Jacquizz Rodgers more in the screen game and Harry Douglas in the slot…and the potential for an even steeper decline is there.

One thing to note – White had his worst stretch as a Falcons probably during the first half of the 2011 season. He uncharacteristically dropped passes he normally came down with and at times seemed distracted. For whatever reason, the Falcons insistence/desire to get the ball to Julio Jones early on in the season seemed to stick in White’s craw a bit. When the best WR opposite you for your career is Michael Jenkins, it’s easy to get used to being ‘THE guy’. When the Falcons started targeting White more, he got the train back on track and played much better in the seasons second half. But the point is that he wasn’t as efficient in 2011 as he had been previously IMO. He’s talking like a guy who understands Julio’s talent and the need to better distribute targets now and the hope for Falcons fans is that he’ll maintain a level of reliability over 16 games in 2012 that he didn’t in 2011 (but which he demonstrated in 2010). But I suspect he’ll see 30-40 fewer targets in 2012 which while still meaning WR1 production, will not challenge the upper tier at this position.

Prediction: 87 Receptions, 1192 Receiving Yards, 7 TD’s
Interesting (and very good) read. Thanks.Yes, White actually led the NFL in drop through mid-December last year.

I think What I take away from this isif the Falcons are going to shift to be a team that is more explosive and distribute the targets more AND they were already a team ranking very high in pass attempts, then maybe Roddy suffers quite a bit more in PPR. I guess I am imagining that instead of those two drives a game where Roddy pads his stats with 3-5 catches and 50 yards, that maybe that becomes one big 50 yard play to Julio or Douglass and the result is White ends up with 1-2 less on an average game. That doesn't sound like much but anything near 30 less catches on the season makes White far less attractive.

I had thought of this a situation like the colts when they had harrison winding down and Wayne emerging but that team never was the team that bombed you consistently. They were always a team that took what was given and had frequent long drives. Really going to have to rethink this one. thanks for the info to ponder.

 
90/1225/9

One of the safest WR picks you can make for a WR1. Julio= more space on the field for White. Yeah he is going to lose looks but he actually played better with Julio on the field last year.

Games without Julio: 4.7 catch per game for 73 yards and 1 TD

Games with Julio: 6.6 grabs for 83 yards with 7 TD's.
Great stat - thanks.
 

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