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The Best arguments against drafting a QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds


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#1 rickyg

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 08:34 PM

So I am pretty sure that I've made my choice for how I am going to approach my draft this year and, as tantalizing as these elite QBs are to start off anchoring my team with, I've decided that I am going to wait on a QB and here is why: 1) people who draft Rodgers, Brady, brees, stafford, and even newton (to an extent) in the first 2 rounds are chasing last years stats. Last years stats, the more I think about it, were an anomaly. I know that the trend has been that the NFL is becoming a passing league for several years now. I acknowledge that. But come on...3 guys (I think) eclipsed 5000 yards passing...THREE! Two guys broke Marino's long standing record! Several others came close to 5000 yds! Do we really think that the lockout and the general unpreparedness of NFL defenses due to the lockout last year did not contribute to those outlandish numbers in a big way? With a full offseason and preseason, you can be sure that defenses will come to the table much better prepared this season, and my best educated guess is that we will see a dropoff from last years pinball numbers. So anyone who drafts arodg, Brady, or brees in round 1 will have an elite qb no doubt, but they will surely be disappointed if they are expecting a repeat of 2011 IMO. 2) when have we ever witnessed a QB have a record breaking elite season and then go on to repeat anything even close to that the next season? Manning had that insane year and regressed to HIS mean the next. Brady was a g-d in 2007 and I think was injured and missed the 2008 season, then was back to his avg or below in 2009. Why should the 2011 guys be different? The types of seasons that these qbs had last year won't be repeated. If it does get repeated I will be 100% sold that it wasn't an anomaly. 3) taking a stud QB early means missing out on a stud RB, a position that is way thin this year. 4) with guys like Vick, romo, Eli, Payton, rivers, Ryan, and even rgIII going after the 4th round you can draft a studly rb/wr/te lineup and still get a great qb with huge upside later between rounds 4-8. Finally, I will say that the only QB from last years ridiculousness that I think will NOT regress is can newton, and that is because if how special he is with running the ball and the rushing Tds. I think can can come close to his production last year again this year and maybe even beat it.

Edited by rickyg, 14 August 2012 - 08:38 PM.

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#2 death of the cool

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 08:56 PM

Having the 3rd pick, I am pretty locked in on one of the top 3 RB's...However I can't blame anyone for playing it safe and rolling with Rodgers, Brady or Brees after that. It seems there is a big group of 2nd tier RB's with warts, and if I was a team with a pick after 3, I would be locking up either an elite QB or Calvin and then rolling the dice on a RB with warts in the 2nd. I do agree with you that the elite QB numbers will come somewhat back down to earth, but the top 3 should still be enough ahead of the pack that it will be worth it....so in theory I think alot of waiting on a QB or going QB first will have to do with where you draft. As for Cam, I was an owner last year and loved every minute of it....however spending a 2nd rounder on him makes me a bit nervous. I'm sure Tolbert was brought in to take the goalline chores, so 14 rushing TD's by Cam is very unlikley....I would say 8-9 is about what I would expect....and that drop off will have to be picked up somewhere. Expecting him to increase his passing yards after having a 4,000 yard season is a stretch...He could increase his passing TD's some, but Carolina really didn't try to add him any weapons..I love this guy, but I am just not sure I an pull the trigger on him in the 2nd.

#3 Late225

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:03 PM

After the top 5 RBs on my board, there's a ton of question marks. I'd prefer taking a safe pick with Calvin Johnson or Rodgers/Brady/Brees. I think taking Gronk/Graham in rounds 1 or 2 is chasing last year's stats more than taking quarterbacks early.

#4 rocketsauce

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:38 PM

Picking #3 in 12 team PPR, 6 pts per all TDs, and start 2RB/3WR/No Flex, and I'm very strongly considering going Rodgers, especially if Foster/Rice go off 1 and 2. You make good points, but the comfort, locked in points, still with a huge weekly ceiling of Rodgers, Brady, and Brees has an invaluable number to it. You never have to play around with your QBs, you don't even have to CARRY a 2nd one (I won't) and you simply plug and play, and wait for your 30 points every week from your 1st round draft pick. I also hate having to use that 4-7 pick on one of your aforementioned "great" QBs of Ryan/Rivers/Romo/Eli/Peyton because I am LOVING cleaning up in those rounds on RB & WR while people hustle to make sure they aren't stuck without their QB when the game of Musical Chairs inevitably stops. Everything you say does make sense as an argument against it, but I'll take my money in the bank production (I'm not even looking for 5000 & 50 like some of those people) and round out my lineup AROUND that stud player.

#5 ShaHBucks

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 09:40 PM

Finally, I will say that the only QB from last years ridiculousness that I think will NOT regress is can newton, and that is because if how special he is with running the ball and the rushing Tds. I think can can come close to his production last year again this year and maybe even beat it.

See Vick and Vince Young. I learned from thinking those td are there to stay, even though Cam runs like Adrien Peterson.
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#6 Zackattack

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Posted 14 August 2012 - 10:30 PM

http://forums.footba...howtopic=649646 This has been covered buddy.

Edited by Zackattack, 14 August 2012 - 10:36 PM.


#7 Godsbrother

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 03:54 AM

In our league QBs are the highest scoring position and we're allowed to start 2 (one as a flex). Most likely there will be 7 QBs taken in the 1st round and probably another 5 or 6 in the 2ns round. If I wait until the 3rd round my starting QB will likely be Alex Smith, Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco and I shudder to think who would be my backup. I am picking 8th and so I may not go with a QB in the first round but I will definitely be grabbing one in the 2nd round.

#8 wiscstlatlmia

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 04:38 AM

Regression... no off season last year for defenses. I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities... 2011 Passing TD 1. Drew Brees* · NOR 46 2. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 45 3. Matthew Stafford · DET 41 4. Tom Brady* · NWE 39 5. Tony Romo · DAL 31 6. Eli Manning* · NYG 29 Matt Ryan · ATL 29 8. Philip Rivers* · SDG 27 9. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 26 10. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 24 2010 Passing TD 1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 36 2. Drew Brees* · NOR 33 Peyton Manning* · IND 33 4. Eli Manning · NYG 31 5. Philip Rivers* · SDG 30 6. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 28 Matt Ryan* · ATL 28 8. Matt Cassel* · KAN 27 9. Carson Palmer · CIN 26 10. Joe Flacco · BAL 25 Josh Freeman · TAM 25 2010 Passes Intercepted 1. Eli Manning · NYG 25 2. Drew Brees* · NOR 22 3. Carson Palmer · CIN 20 4. Brett Favre · MIN 19 Chad Henne · MIA 19 6. Matt Hasselbeck · SEA 17 Peyton Manning* · IND 17 8. Jay Cutler · CHI 16 9. Sam Bradford · STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 15 David Garrard · JAX 15 Donovan McNabb · WAS 15 2011 Passes Intercepted 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 23 2. Josh Freeman · TAM 22 3. Rex Grossman · WAS 20 Philip Rivers* · SDG 20 5. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 18 6. Cam Newton · CAR 17 7. Eli Manning* · NYG 16 Carson Palmer · OAK 16 Matthew Stafford · DET 16 10. Drew Brees* · NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck · TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton · ARI 14 Michael Vick · PHI 14 2011 Passing Yds 1. Drew Brees* · NOR 5476 2. Tom Brady* · NWE 5235 3. Matthew Stafford · DET 5038 4. Eli Manning* · NYG 4933 5. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 4643 6. Philip Rivers* · SDG 4624 7. Tony Romo · DAL 4184 8. Matt Ryan · ATL 4177 9. Ben Roethlisberger* · 4077 10. Cam Newton · CAR 4051 2010 Passing Yds 1. Philip Rivers* · SDG 4710 2. Peyton Manning* · IND 4700 3. Drew Brees* · NOR 4620 4. Matt Schaub · HOU 4370 5. Eli Manning · NYG 4002 6. Carson Palmer · CIN 3970 7. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 3922 8. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 3900 9. Matt Ryan* · ATL 3705 10. Kyle Orton · DEN 3653 2010 Pass Attempts 1. Peyton Manning* · IND 679 2. Drew Brees* · NOR 658 3. Sam Bradford · STL 590 4. Carson Palmer · CIN 586 5. Matt Schaub · HOU 574 6. Matt Ryan* · ATL 571 7. Philip Rivers* · SDG 541 8. Eli Manning · NYG 539 9. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 507 10. Kyle Orton · DEN 498 2011 Pass Attempts 1. Matthew Stafford · DET 663 2. Drew Brees* · NOR 657 3. Tom Brady* · NWE 611 4. Eli Manning* · NYG 589 5. Philip Rivers* · SDG 582 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick · BUF 569 7. Matt Ryan · ATL 566 8. Josh Freeman · TAM 551 9. Mark Sanchez · NYJ 543 10. Joe Flacco · BAL 542 2011 Passer Rating 1. Aaron Rodgers*+ · GNB 122.5 2. Drew Brees* · NOR 110.6 3. Tom Brady* · NWE 105.6 4. Tony Romo · DAL 102.5 5. Matthew Stafford · DET 97.2 6. Matt Schaub · HOU 96.8 7. Eli Manning* · NYG 92.9 8. Matt Ryan · ATL 92.2 9. Alex Smith · SFO 90.7 10. Ben Roethlisberger* · 90.1 2010 Passer Rating 1. Tom Brady*+ · NWE 111.0 2. Philip Rivers* · SDG 101.8 3. Aaron Rodgers · GNB 101.2 4. Michael Vick* · PHI 100.2 5. Ben Roethlisberger · 97.0 6. Josh Freeman · TAM 95.9 7. Joe Flacco · BAL 93.6 8. Matt Cassel* · KAN 93.0 9. Matt Schaub · HOU 92.0 10. Peyton Manning* · IND 91.9 That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future. I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Edited by wiscstlatlmia, 15 August 2012 - 05:17 AM.


#9 rickyg

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 04:45 AM

Regression... no off season last year for defenses. I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities... 2011 Passing TD 1. Drew Brees* NOR 46 2. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 45 3. Matthew Stafford DET 41 4. Tom Brady* NWE 39 5. Tony Romo DAL 31 6. Eli Manning* NYG 29 Matt Ryan ATL 29 8. Philip Rivers* SDG 27 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 26 10. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 24 201 Passing TD 1. Tom Brady*+ NWE 36 2. Drew Brees* NOR 33 Peyton Manning* IND 33 4. Eli Manning NYG 31 5. Philip Rivers* SDG 30 6. Aaron Rodgers GNB 28 Matt Ryan* ATL 28 8. Matt Cassel* KAN 27 9. Carson Palmer CIN 26 10. Joe Flacco BAL 25 Josh Freeman TAM 25 2010 Passes Intercepted 1. Eli Manning NYG 25 2. Drew Brees* NOR 22 3. Carson Palmer CIN 20 4. Brett Favre MIN 19 Chad Henne MIA 19 6. Matt Hasselbeck SEA 17 Peyton Manning* IND 17 8. Jay Cutler CHI 16 9. Sam Bradford STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 15 David Garrard JAX 15 Donovan McNabb WAS 15 2011 Passes Intercepted 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 23 2. Josh Freeman TAM 22 3. Rex Grossman WAS 20 Philip Rivers* SDG 20 5. Mark Sanchez NYJ 18 6. Cam Newton CAR 17 7. Eli Manning* NYG 16 Carson Palmer OAK 16 Matthew Stafford DET 16 10. Drew Brees* NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton ARI 14 Michael Vick PHI 14 2011 Passing Yds 1. Drew Brees* NOR 5476 2. Tom Brady* NWE 5235 3. Matthew Stafford DET 5038 4. Eli Manning* NYG 4933 5. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 4643 6. Philip Rivers* SDG 4624 7. Tony Romo DAL 4184 8. Matt Ryan ATL 4177 9. Ben Roethlisberger* 4077 10. Cam Newton CAR 4051 2010 Passing Yds 1. Philip Rivers* SDG 4710 2. Peyton Manning* IND 4700 3. Drew Brees* NOR 4620 4. Matt Schaub HOU 4370 5. Eli Manning NYG 4002 6. Carson Palmer CIN 3970 7. Aaron Rodgers GNB 3922 8. Tom Brady*+ NWE 3900 9. Matt Ryan* ATL 3705 10. Kyle Orton DEN 3653 2010 Pass Attempts 1. Peyton Manning* IND 679 2. Drew Brees* NOR 658 3. Sam Bradford STL 590 4. Carson Palmer CIN 586 5. Matt Schaub HOU 574 6. Matt Ryan* ATL 571 7. Philip Rivers* SDG 541 8. Eli Manning NYG 539 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 507 10. Kyle Orton DEN 498 2011 Pass Attempts 1. Matthew Stafford DET 663 2. Drew Brees* NOR 657 3. Tom Brady* NWE 611 4. Eli Manning* NYG 589 5. Philip Rivers* SDG 582 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 569 7. Matt Ryan ATL 566 8. Josh Freeman TAM 551 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 543 10. Joe Flacco BAL 542 2011 Passer Rating 1. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 122.5 2. Drew Brees* NOR 110.6 3. Tom Brady* NWE 105.6 4. Tony Romo DAL 102.5 5. Matthew Stafford DET 97.2 6. Matt Schaub HOU 96.8 7. Eli Manning* NYG 92.9 8. Matt Ryan ATL 92.2 9. Alex Smith SFO 90.7 10. Ben Roethlisberger* 90.1 2010 Passer Rating 1. Tom Brady*+ NWE 111.0 2. Philip Rivers* SDG 101.8 3. Aaron Rodgers GNB 101.2 4. Michael Vick* PHI 100.2 5. Ben Roethlisberger 97.0 6. Josh Freeman TAM 95.9 7. Joe Flacco BAL 93.6 8. Matt Cassel* KAN 93.0 9. Matt Schaub HOU 92.0 10. Peyton Manning* IND 91.9 That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future. I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Exactly!
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#10 wiscstlatlmia

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 05:40 AM

In our league QBs are the highest scoring position and we're allowed to start 2 (one as a flex). Most likely there will be 7 QBs taken in the 1st round and probably another 5 or 6 in the 2ns round. If I wait until the 3rd round my starting QB will likely be Alex Smith, Andy Dalton or Joe Flacco and I shudder to think who would be my backup. I am picking 8th and so I may not go with a QB in the first round but I will definitely be grabbing one in the 2nd round.

2 QB leagues has nothing to do with what I'm saying I think in 2 Qb leagues the whole first round should be basically filled with them.

#11 hotboyz

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 05:50 AM

Regression... no off season last year for defenses. I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities... 2011 Passing TD 1. Drew Brees* NOR 46 2. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 45 3. Matthew Stafford DET 41 4. Tom Brady* NWE 39 5. Tony Romo DAL 31 6. Eli Manning* NYG 29 Matt Ryan ATL 29 8. Philip Rivers* SDG 27 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 26 10. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 24 2010 Passing TD 1. Tom Brady*+ NWE 36 2. Drew Brees* NOR 33 Peyton Manning* IND 33 4. Eli Manning NYG 31 5. Philip Rivers* SDG 30 6. Aaron Rodgers GNB 28 Matt Ryan* ATL 28 8. Matt Cassel* KAN 27 9. Carson Palmer CIN 26 10. Joe Flacco BAL 25 Josh Freeman TAM 25 2010 Passes Intercepted 1. Eli Manning NYG 25 2. Drew Brees* NOR 22 3. Carson Palmer CIN 20 4. Brett Favre MIN 19 Chad Henne MIA 19 6. Matt Hasselbeck SEA 17 Peyton Manning* IND 17 8. Jay Cutler CHI 16 9. Sam Bradford STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 15 David Garrard JAX 15 Donovan McNabb WAS 15 2011 Passes Intercepted 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 23 2. Josh Freeman TAM 22 3. Rex Grossman WAS 20 Philip Rivers* SDG 20 5. Mark Sanchez NYJ 18 6. Cam Newton CAR 17 7. Eli Manning* NYG 16 Carson Palmer OAK 16 Matthew Stafford DET 16 10. Drew Brees* NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton ARI 14 Michael Vick PHI 14 2011 Passing Yds 1. Drew Brees* NOR 5476 2. Tom Brady* NWE 5235 3. Matthew Stafford DET 5038 4. Eli Manning* NYG 4933 5. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 4643 6. Philip Rivers* SDG 4624 7. Tony Romo DAL 4184 8. Matt Ryan ATL 4177 9. Ben Roethlisberger* 4077 10. Cam Newton CAR 4051 2010 Passing Yds 1. Philip Rivers* SDG 4710 2. Peyton Manning* IND 4700 3. Drew Brees* NOR 4620 4. Matt Schaub HOU 4370 5. Eli Manning NYG 4002 6. Carson Palmer CIN 3970 7. Aaron Rodgers GNB 3922 8. Tom Brady*+ NWE 3900 9. Matt Ryan* ATL 3705 10. Kyle Orton DEN 3653 2010 Pass Attempts 1. Peyton Manning* IND 679 2. Drew Brees* NOR 658 3. Sam Bradford STL 590 4. Carson Palmer CIN 586 5. Matt Schaub HOU 574 6. Matt Ryan* ATL 571 7. Philip Rivers* SDG 541 8. Eli Manning NYG 539 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 507 10. Kyle Orton DEN 498 2011 Pass Attempts 1. Matthew Stafford DET 663 2. Drew Brees* NOR 657 3. Tom Brady* NWE 611 4. Eli Manning* NYG 589 5. Philip Rivers* SDG 582 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 569 7. Matt Ryan ATL 566 8. Josh Freeman TAM 551 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 543 10. Joe Flacco BAL 542 2011 Passer Rating 1. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 122.5 2. Drew Brees* NOR 110.6 3. Tom Brady* NWE 105.6 4. Tony Romo DAL 102.5 5. Matthew Stafford DET 97.2 6. Matt Schaub HOU 96.8 7. Eli Manning* NYG 92.9 8. Matt Ryan ATL 92.2 9. Alex Smith SFO 90.7 10. Ben Roethlisberger* 90.1 2010 Passer Rating 1. Tom Brady*+ NWE 111.0 2. Philip Rivers* SDG 101.8 3. Aaron Rodgers GNB 101.2 4. Michael Vick* PHI 100.2 5. Ben Roethlisberger 97.0 6. Josh Freeman TAM 95.9 7. Joe Flacco BAL 93.6 8. Matt Cassel* KAN 93.0 9. Matt Schaub HOU 92.0 10. Peyton Manning* IND 91.9 That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future. I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Great work but now I need you to look at those numbers for the last 5 yrs. you look at last yr as a 1 time phenomena I argue that last yr was just the hight point of a 5 yr trend I believe it was just the next step in the evolution of the passing game. I wonder have the stats gone up increasingly over the last 5 yrs? If they have who says this trend won't continue??

#12 Shane Falco

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:12 AM

After the top 5 RBs on my board, there's a ton of question marks. I'd prefer taking a safe pick with Calvin Johnson or Rodgers/Brady/Brees. I think taking Gronk/Graham in rounds 1 or 2 is chasing last year's stats more than taking quarterbacks early.

who are the other 2 RBs without question marks? I'm almost believing the case that after the top 4 guys (3 RBs and Calvin) taking a QB is the the "safe play".
Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.

#13 The Jerk

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:15 AM

One reason I like to wait on a QB is to make sure no one else gets an extreme value pick at QB. Clearly if you go first or early second with a QB, you're not going to go after the round 5 value QB too. At least I wouldn't. Of course, at some point, you need to make the commitment if you perceive the value already out there is too good to pass up. The same concept applies to going RB/RB/RB -- for me, I know this strategy has its fans -- but I don't like that approach because I now have very little to benefit, except injury coverage and trade bait, if I pick a RB in the next several rounds. A different thought on when to draft QBs, but one that certainly weighs on my mind.

#14 wiscstlatlmia

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:19 AM

Regression... no off season last year for defenses. I don't mean just no preseason and mini camp...players weren't even allowed on the facilities... 2011 Passing TD 1. Drew Brees* NOR 46 2. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 45 3. Matthew Stafford DET 41 4. Tom Brady* NWE 39 5. Tony Romo DAL 31 6. Eli Manning* NYG 29 Matt Ryan ATL 29 8. Philip Rivers* SDG 27 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 26 10. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 24 2010 Passing TD 1. Tom Brady*+ NWE 36 2. Drew Brees* NOR 33 Peyton Manning* IND 33 4. Eli Manning NYG 31 5. Philip Rivers* SDG 30 6. Aaron Rodgers GNB 28 Matt Ryan* ATL 28 8. Matt Cassel* KAN 27 9. Carson Palmer CIN 26 10. Joe Flacco BAL 25 Josh Freeman TAM 25 2010 Passes Intercepted 1. Eli Manning NYG 25 2. Drew Brees* NOR 22 3. Carson Palmer CIN 20 4. Brett Favre MIN 19 Chad Henne MIA 19 6. Matt Hasselbeck SEA 17 Peyton Manning* IND 17 8. Jay Cutler CHI 16 9. Sam Bradford STL 15 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 15 David Garrard JAX 15 Donovan McNabb WAS 15 2011 Passes Intercepted 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 23 2. Josh Freeman TAM 22 3. Rex Grossman WAS 20 Philip Rivers* SDG 20 5. Mark Sanchez NYJ 18 6. Cam Newton CAR 17 7. Eli Manning* NYG 16 Carson Palmer OAK 16 Matthew Stafford DET 16 10. Drew Brees* NOR 14 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 14 Ben Roethlisberger* 14 John Skelton ARI 14 Michael Vick PHI 14 2011 Passing Yds 1. Drew Brees* NOR 5476 2. Tom Brady* NWE 5235 3. Matthew Stafford DET 5038 4. Eli Manning* NYG 4933 5. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 4643 6. Philip Rivers* SDG 4624 7. Tony Romo DAL 4184 8. Matt Ryan ATL 4177 9. Ben Roethlisberger* 4077 10. Cam Newton CAR 4051 2010 Passing Yds 1. Philip Rivers* SDG 4710 2. Peyton Manning* IND 4700 3. Drew Brees* NOR 4620 4. Matt Schaub HOU 4370 5. Eli Manning NYG 4002 6. Carson Palmer CIN 3970 7. Aaron Rodgers GNB 3922 8. Tom Brady*+ NWE 3900 9. Matt Ryan* ATL 3705 10. Kyle Orton DEN 3653 2010 Pass Attempts 1. Peyton Manning* IND 679 2. Drew Brees* NOR 658 3. Sam Bradford STL 590 4. Carson Palmer CIN 586 5. Matt Schaub HOU 574 6. Matt Ryan* ATL 571 7. Philip Rivers* SDG 541 8. Eli Manning NYG 539 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 507 10. Kyle Orton DEN 498 2011 Pass Attempts 1. Matthew Stafford DET 663 2. Drew Brees* NOR 657 3. Tom Brady* NWE 611 4. Eli Manning* NYG 589 5. Philip Rivers* SDG 582 6. Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 569 7. Matt Ryan ATL 566 8. Josh Freeman TAM 551 9. Mark Sanchez NYJ 543 10. Joe Flacco BAL 542 2011 Passer Rating 1. Aaron Rodgers*+ GNB 122.5 2. Drew Brees* NOR 110.6 3. Tom Brady* NWE 105.6 4. Tony Romo DAL 102.5 5. Matthew Stafford DET 97.2 6. Matt Schaub HOU 96.8 7. Eli Manning* NYG 92.9 8. Matt Ryan ATL 92.2 9. Alex Smith SFO 90.7 10. Ben Roethlisberger* 90.1 2010 Passer Rating 1. Tom Brady*+ NWE 111.0 2. Philip Rivers* SDG 101.8 3. Aaron Rodgers GNB 101.2 4. Michael Vick* PHI 100.2 5. Ben Roethlisberger 97.0 6. Josh Freeman TAM 95.9 7. Joe Flacco BAL 93.6 8. Matt Cassel* KAN 93.0 9. Matt Schaub HOU 92.0 10. Peyton Manning* IND 91.9 That's not even a drastic change... thats is an unrealistic precendent for the future. I just dont understand the assumption that this is how the league is now, do we really think defenses got that much worse in one year? I understand the new rules are debilitating in some ways, and I do understand, maybe some day, this will be the way the numbers stack up, but I dont think defenses(and there coordinators) are willing to rollover to this type of league just yet.

Great work but now I need you to look at those numbers for the last 5 yrs. you look at last yr as a 1 time phenomena I argue that last yr was just the hight point of a 5 yr trend I believe it was just the next step in the evolution of the passing game. I wonder have the stats gone up increasingly over the last 5 yrs? If they have who says this trend won't continue??

Now, that is something I agree with. I think eventually... it will probably get to this point and its clearly trending towards this way, even before what happened last year it was. I just don't think were to the point where its ok to be drafting 4 QBs in the first round.

#15 butcher boy

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:30 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

#16 The Jerk

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:33 AM

I just don't think were to the point where its ok to be drafting 4 QBs in the first round.

Drafts are heavily league dependent. In some leagues, it makes as much sense now to draft 4 QBs in the first round as it did to draft 10 RBs in the first round about 5-6 years ago. My longest running league has 6 pt TDs for QBs, bonuses for distance scoring and half the yardage points across all positions (i.e., TD heavy). In this format, the draft dominator suggests 4 QBs, 5 RBs, and Calvin as the top ten picks. And I agree with that.

#17 chickensoup

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:40 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

#18 silentcoach

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:40 AM

There is error with this type of thinking #1) There is an assumption that the top QBS will not score as much (fair enough) but you also assume the other qbs "such as Manning, Romo, etc" will keep their level of scoring, or close the gap compared to the top QBS. #2) An assumption that rbs drafted later cannot close the gap with the elite rbs. Eli Manning Threw over 4900 yards in 2011 and a tad over 4000 in 2010--seems like a big difference to me. What's to say HE keeps this up too? Or that he does not regress back to less than 4k passing yards? What if the top QBS regress, but the lower QBS regress more? As mentioned before, I will say it again--it comes down to COMFORT. People are more COMFORTABLE drafting a qb later because the QB always has his hands on the ball, so it's easy to assume upside in a game or two. The same can be said for a rb--there is upside in rbs drafted later, BUT we don't know how many touches they'd have etc, so we are most hesistant to draft a rb later--MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. In the end, drafters draft QBS later and RBS earlier because they are more COMFORTABLE doing so--and that is fine. Know yourself. If you feel comfortable drafting a rb later and know how to get one, then do so. It's much easier passing on an elite QB and drafting an Eli or Cuter because I know qbs always have the ball ;). The truth remains that when you see your opponent is starting Rodgers, Brees, or Brady you know that most likely you will have to make up the difference in points with your other position players--and this cannot be said for Romo or E.Manning.

Edited by silentcoach, 15 August 2012 - 06:52 AM.


#19 rickyg

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:43 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.
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#20 butcher boy

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:48 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.

I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.

#21 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:49 AM

It is about value. If you limit yourself to or from a certain position, you surrender value. I wouldn't draft a QB top 3 in most formats. But I would be okay with Rodgers, Brees, or Brady anywhere after that. Keep in mind that Adrian Peterson's career average VBD is right around 100. Cam Newton bested in that his rookie season. I wouldn't question anyone drafting him late in the first, either.

Edited by Concept Coop, 15 August 2012 - 06:49 AM.

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#22 ATC1

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:50 AM

One reason I like to wait on a QB is to make sure no one else gets an extreme value pick at QB. Clearly if you go first or early second with a QB, you're not going to go after the round 5 value QB too. At least I wouldn't. Of course, at some point, you need to make the commitment if you perceive the value already out there is too good to pass up. The same concept applies to going RB/RB/RB -- for me, I know this strategy has its fans -- but I don't like that approach because I now have very little to benefit, except injury coverage and trade bait, if I pick a RB in the next several rounds. A different thought on when to draft QBs, but one that certainly weighs on my mind.

:goodposting: As mentioned in another thread. QB and TE you are going to take 1 in the 1st 8 rounds. If you take a QB/TE early and someone presents good value in the 3rd or 4th you need to pass on him.

#23 butcher boy

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:50 AM

I'd also like to add that I believe another contributor to last year's explosion was that all of Brady/Bree/Rodgers had sort of a perfect storm situation where they were all on teams with ####ty running games and bad defenses. So they were forced to throw and had to throw a lot because of their defense. I dont see how that situation has changed significantly this year.

#24 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:50 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

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#25 rickyg

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:55 AM

There is error with this type of thinking #1) There is an assumption that the top QBS will not score as much (fair enough) but you also assume the other qbs "such as Manning, Romo, etc" will keep their level of scoring, or close the gap compared to the top QBS. #2) An assumption that rbs drafted later cannot close the gap with the elite rbs. Eli Manning Threw over 4900 yards in 2011 and a tad over 4000 in 2010--that's a bunch of points. What's to say HE keeps this up too? Or that he does not regress back to less than 4k passing yards? What if The top QBS regress, but the lower QBS regress more? As mentioned before, I will say it again--it comes down to COMFORT. People are more COMFORTABLE drafting a qb later because the QB always has his hands on the ball, so it's easy to assume upside in a game or two. The same can be said for a rb--There is upside in rbs drafted later, BUT we don't know how many touches they'd have etc, so we are most hesistant to draft a rb later--MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. In the end, drafters draft QBS later and RBS earlier because they are more COMFORTABLE doing so--and that is fine. Know yourself. If you feel comfortable drafting a rb later and know how to get one, then do so. It's much easier passing on an elite QB and drafting an Eli or Cuter because I know qbs always have the ball ;). The truth remains that when you see your opponent has Rodgers, Brees, or Brady you know you will have to make up the difference in points with your other position players, and that is how the draft works--draft a team!

Our thinking is in agreement. I also believe that Most or all QB stats will regress back to TE mean or slightly above the mean for 2012. That includes the Eli mannings, etc. With that said, the top 3 or 4 qbs will still be elite with regards to the qb category, but that does change their status in overall rankings and whether or not a first roun pick will be justified. If you draft Rodgers, Brady, or brees in round 1 expecting 2012 stats or better the odds are you will be Rey disappointed. If you are drafting them in the first round expecting 2010 or similar production you will get what you expect? But what you expect might not get you what you want, which is a team that cranks out best overall points scored and a title. That's all I'm saying. Ps - if we are going to discuss all of these qbs regress into the mean that means we should also discuss wrs and te's regressing as well. If you shave 500-1000 yards and 5-10 tds off of a qbs stats that affects his receivers. So the next thought should be "are guys like graham and gronk being drafted too high? Are wrs in general being drafted a little too high based on this thought process?"
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#26 Sinn Fein

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 06:56 AM

Rushing attempts were up 0.4% from 2010 to 2011, yards up 2.3% Passing attempts were up 0.8% from 2010 to 2011, yards up 3.7% Not a drastic increase in either case. The difference is in the elite QBs and systems - they are head and shoulders above the average QBs. At the same time, the difference between elite and average RBs is shrinking. The league is not drastically shifting to a passing league - but it appears that way when you see the elite player put up big numbers. Total passing yards per team was up only 9 yards/game in 2011. The reason why QBs should be going in the first round has to do with the limited number of elite QBs, and the drop-off in production 5-12. In my league - fairly standard scoring (4 pts per passing TD) - the top-5 QBs averaged 23 points per game. 6-12 averaged 16. By comparison, RBS were 17, and 14 respectively. (non ppr) If you pass on an elite QB in round 1, you are putting yourself 7 points behind. You need two top-5 RBs to make up that difference.

#27 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:02 AM

If you draft Rodgers, Brady, or brees in round 1 expecting 2012 stats or better the odds are you will be Rey disappointed.

I don't expect 4-5 QBs chasing the record every year, but I don't think it's wise to write of this major spike in production. This isn't a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning outlier season. Passing was up BIG TIME across the board. There were new rules protecting the receiver implemented just last season - I don't think it's a coincidence. I expect defenses to adjust, especially in the way they value skill types. But that's a year+ away. So, just because players haven't repeated historic seasons before, doesn't mean passing won't continue to be up, especially for the elite QBs that can take advantage of the changes.

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#28 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:05 AM

If you pass on an elite QB in round 1, you are putting yourself 7 points behind. You need two top-5 RBs to make up that difference.

This is equally wrong. VBD will show you that top RBs, Gronk, Graham, and Calvin can provide just as much VBD as a top QB. Speaking in such absolutes is limiting. It's about value, regardless of how it comes packaged.

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#29 rickyg

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:10 AM

If you draft Rodgers, Brady, or brees in round 1 expecting 2012 stats or better the odds are you will be Rey disappointed.

I don't expect 4-5 QBs chasing the record every year, but I don't think it's wise to write of this major spike in production. This isn't a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning outlier season. Passing was up BIG TIME across the board. There were new rules protecting the receiver implemented just last season - I don't think it's a coincidence. I expect defenses to adjust, especially in the way they value skill types. But that's a year+ away. So, just because players haven't repeated historic seasons before, doesn't mean passing won't continue to be up, especially for the elite QBs that can take advantage of the changes.

Great points and you could be right. And that is TE real question here: was the uptick in qb production in 2012 an anomaly due to the lockout or was it the new nfl given the new rules implemented last year that helped the passing game. I'm pretty sure that a lot of that insane qb production last year came in the first quarter of the season too and then a lot of the QB performances calmed down, albeit still strong. That would speak to the lockout being the cause but could also speak to defenses adjusting the the we rules protecting wrs We will just have to wait and see what the 2012 season brings to know for certain, but I don't think I have seen enough yet to justify a 1st or 2nd round qb pick. With that said, I am like water. So if my draft goes rb heavy in the first few rounds I might just go the opposite and go qb/wr or TE. It all depends what rbs fall to me and what my draft spot is. I agree with the poster here who said that each draft is different. But basically all I'm Trying to say is that I expect a regression to or slightly above the individual mean for all qbs in 2012.
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#30 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:12 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.

I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.

I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career: 26 29 34 36 33 47 - 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6) - 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011 - Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his average Just something to think about.

#31 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:16 AM

If you pass on an elite QB in round 1, you are putting yourself 7 points behind. You need two top-5 RBs to make up that difference.

This is equally wrong. VBD will show you that top RBs, Gronk, Graham, and Calvin can provide just as much VBD as a top QB. Speaking in such absolutes is limiting. It's about value, regardless of how it comes packaged.

VBD is overrated. In round 1, you are looking for the best value, wherever you can find it, relative to the other players at a given position. Top-RBs are currently overvalued. I agree that TEs and WRs can provide good value, though more of their value is tied to a good QB, than vice-versa.

You say VBD is overrated, then go on to endorse it. "Finding best value, wherever you can, relative to other players at a given position" is what VBD is. If you're using blacket point total - which you did - Matt Schaub will likely be more valuable(to you) than Arian Foster.

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#32 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:17 AM

At first I didn't mind another thread on the topic, but a lot of the same incorrect points are coming up.

#33 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:20 AM

But basically all I'm Trying to say is that I expect a regression to or slightly above the individual mean for all qbs in 2012.

I expect some regression too. I think that's logical. I like to use this example: Adrian Peterson's average career VBD is around 100. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers scored 200+ last season. Granted, this doesn't take flex options into account, so Petersons is probably closer to 125-150, depending on number of flex options, but still. There is room for the top QBs to come back down to earth, and still be worth as much, or more than the top RBs.

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#34 hotboyz

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:20 AM

Here's a snipet from Matthew Berry 2012 draft manifesto I kno guys don't like him but this is interesting the reason you go stud QB early is there consistency and there is not much turnover at the QB position "OK, fine," you say. "I get it. I need a good quarterback. But whatevs, dude. There's so many good ones, I can get one later." Maybe. But like I said earlier, a good quarterback is the new mediocre. Check this out as we go back to Tristan's consistency list. Here are last year's top nine scoring quarterbacks, along with their point totals. 1. Aaron Rodgers, 385 2. Drew Brees, 380 3. Tom Brady, 352 4. Cam Newton, 333 4. Matthew Stafford, 333 6. Eli Manning, 273 7. Tony Romo, 265 8. Matt Ryan, 260 9. Philip Rivers, 246 OK, now let's look at that list again but add their "stud" weeks. The weeks they had more than 20 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring. 1. Aaron Rodgers, 385 -- 14 stud games 2. Drew Brees, 380 -- 12 stud games 3. Tom Brady, 352 -- 9 stud games 4. Cam Newton, 333 -- 9 stud games 4. Matthew Stafford, 333 -- 8 stud games 6. Eli Manning, 273 -- 7 stud games 7. Tony Romo, 265 -- 6 stud games 8. Matt Ryan, 260 -- 5 stud games 9. Philip Rivers, 246 -- 3 stud games Other names worth noting: Vick had seven "stud" games, Ben Roethlisberger had three and Matt Schaub had two. As good as Eli was last year -- and he was terrific -- he had just half the number of stud games Rodgers did. You look at 385 for Rodgers and 273 for Eli and you're like, "Eh, 102 total points -- that's a lot, but it's not a crazy amount over an entire season. I can live with Eli if I get a stud running back." And if that running back is Foster, Rice, McCoy or Jones-Drew, I agree with you. But anyone else?

#35 butcher boy

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:22 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.

I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.

I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career: 26 29 34 36 33 47 - 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6) - 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011 - Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his average Just something to think about.

My point was that I'm not projecting 47 TDs again for Brees and I'd still take him in the first assuming certain other guys were taken first. I'm not going to project Brees back down to 33-34 TDs however, because I don't see how his situation has changed for the worse that much (bountygate aside which I think affects the defense more).

#36 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:25 AM

I'm curious what the people against drafting a QB in the first have projected for Brees/Brady/Rodgers.

I'd guess all three 4500-5000 yards, 35-40 TDs, 5-12 INT is about where every projection is going to be. It's not necessarily that they are chasing last years stats, it's that those are the three guys that are the most likely to put up elite numbers. When you are talking about other players that are taking after Rice/Foster/McCoy/Mega who can you honestly sit here and tell me is going to very very likely be top 5 in the position? Everyone after the top 4 has question marks. I don't generally take one of the "elite" QBs in drafts. But I understand why they are taken. To me they are that persons "binkey blanket" 20-25 points every week almost guarenteed regardless of who they play and in the most protected position in football. Contrast that with drafting McFadden who has never stayed healthy but puts up top numbers when he is (which coincidentally hurts you during the playoffs)Those guys are for the Risk averse and none of the RB or frankly WR who could be considered 1st round material are as safe of picks.

Take each individual QB and use their last 2 or 3 seasons prior to 2012 to find an average for them and then give the numbers a slight uptick. To me that seems the best way to do it and the more realistic way to predict their 2012 performance than to expect something close to or exceeding their 2012 performances.

I dont think I've seen anyone project the top 3 QBs to exceed last year's production. The highest amount of passing yards I currently have projected is Brees with 4905 to go with 40 touchdons, which is also lower. I'll still take any 3 of those guys in the first if the situation is right.

I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career: 26 29 34 36 33 47 - 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6) - 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011 - Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his average Just something to think about.

My point was that I'm not projecting 47 TDs again for Brees and I'd still take him in the first assuming certain other guys were taken first. I'm not going to project Brees back down to 33-34 TDs however, because I don't see how his situation has changed for the worse that much (bountygate aside which I think affects the defense more).

We'll agree to disagree. I see a huge drop-off, and think he will come in around 36 or so.

#37 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:26 AM

I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career: 26 29 34 36 33 47 - 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6) - 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011 - Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his average Just something to think about.

You would have to find that Brees' spike in production was significantly greater than that of similair players for your point to mean what you intend it to. There was a major spike in production accross the league, very especially for the elite QBs. If the factors that caused said spike are still relevant, it is logical for the increase in procution to remain.

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#38 VaTerp

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:26 AM

3) taking a stud QB early means missing out on a stud RB, a position that is way thin this year.

Not necessarily true that you are missing out on a stud RB. If you feel more confident in the QB you select performing at a stud level than you do in the RBs available to you at that spot in the draft. There is no guarantee that any of these players will be studs so you take your chances with the player you feel most comfortable with at a given spot. Thats the only thing that matters IMO. And due to the nature of the position you can make the argument that QB play is slightly more predictable and less prone to injury.

I think the OP makes some valid points. But in general, we have over thought and over discussed this issue.

I have won my main league twice while taking QBs in the first round and I have won the same league being the 2nd to last person to draft a QB. And I have had success and failures doing just about everything in between. You can analyze all of the stats, deviations,trends, etc. but at the end of the day it's about selecting the players you, based on your best educated guess, think will perform at a high level and give you the most points and best chance to win.

If you feel good about the RBs available to you in the first then take them. If you like Calvin better, take him. If you feel more confident in a QB like Rodgers, Brady, Brees, then take them. It's really that simple.

So some people are just not comfortable taking QBs early. Fine, that can work for them. Some people like to go after a stud QB early. That can work too.

At the end of the day, you put together a draft board. You identify certain targets at various positions, analyze where you might be able to select those guys and you roll with it. Sometimes you feel good about the RBs at the top and waiting on a QB. Sometimes you want to grad some stud WRs early. Sometimes you feel better getting a big time QB and drafting several value Rbs who you think will pan out.

Great, those are all strategies that can work. Can we please end the debate about taking a QB early and everyone just draft how they want and see where the chips fall?

Edited by VaTerp, 15 August 2012 - 07:27 AM.


#39 silentcoach

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:43 AM

I have also noticed that these threads always say wait on a QB as opposed to threads titled "Take a QB early." It's like these thread makers are fighting an urge to NOT take a QB early (or trying to convince themselves). Do whatever you want because it will take a team and waiver moves to win it all, anyhow.

Edited by silentcoach, 15 August 2012 - 07:45 AM.


#40 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:48 AM



I realize you're arbitrarily using Brees as an example, but here are his TDs over his Saints career:

26
29
34
36
33
47

- 2011 represented a ~46% increase in TD production for Brees over his average (31.6)
- 2011 represented a ~40% increase in TD production for Brees between 2010 & 2011
- Even if we include the monster year last year, 40 TDs would be a ~17% increase over his average

Just something to think about.

You would have to find that Brees' spike in production was significantly greater than that of similair players for your point to mean what you intend it to.

There was a major spike in production accross the league, very especially for the elite QBs. If the factors that caused said spike are still relevant, it is logical for the increase in procution to remain.

Pretty much untrue across the board. Look at this graph (I've posted this in multiple threads all off-season). It outlines historic points of the top 12 QBs over the last eight years. The lavender line represents 2011. The green line represents 2007 (Brady, specifically).

Pretty easy to see that every QB outside of the top 5 was in-line with the slow and steady upward trend of QB performance, rather than the spike the "elite" QBs saw last year.

Edited by -jb-, 15 August 2012 - 07:49 AM.


#41 The Jerk

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 07:59 AM

I think the OP makes some valid points. But in general, we have over thought and over discussed this issue. I have won my main league twice while taking QBs in the first round and I have won the same league being the 2nd to last person to draft a QB. And I have had success and failures doing just about everything in between. You can analyze all of the stats, deviations,trends, etc. but at the end of the day it's about selecting the players you, based on your best educated guess, think will perform at a high level and give you the most points and best chance to win.

There are countless highly knowledgeable fantasy owners in the Shark Pool. In any league where at least half of the owners are not FBGs/Shark Pool contributors, I'd suggest these owners have an edge on their competition. I would further guess that these owners could be forced to do any specific strategy and still end up with both a successful draft and a successful season. What I'm getting at is that the reason you can see both the ardent QB early and QB late posters -- and any other draft strategy variant -- pop up here, there, and everywhere in the Shark Pool is because all of these strategies can work if a knowledgeable and skilled drafter is executing them. We can all recite them by now. Go QB early, or even the "upside-down" draft in total and fill in with RBs later, with an eye to the waiver wire at RB to help fill in what was skipped over at the draft. Go QB later, get this year's Stafford or Newton late in the draft or off the waiver wire. They have both worked, and they can both work again!! Knowing your league is the key. Scoring system, lineup configuration, roster size (often underrated, as it determines to a large extent the waiver wire quality), and draft tendencies will nudge you toward one or the other strategy. Have at it, and go get a good team. Done.

#42 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:11 AM

Pretty much untrue across the board. Look at this graph (I've posted this in multiple threads all off-season). It outlines historic points of the top 12 QBs over the last eight years. The lavender line represents 2011. The green line represents 2007 (Brady, specifically).

Pretty easy to see that every QB outside of the top 5 was in-line with the slow and steady upward trend of QB performance, rather than the spike the "elite" QBs saw last year.

I can't view the link on the computer I am using. My apologies for that.

Just my opinion and conclusions on the matter. But, we have to ask and determine, best we can, WHY elite QBs saw such a spike in production. If some QBs and offenses are better capable of taking advantage of the new rule changes - why would that change next season?

Tony Romo was well behind the top QBs, but he still had the best year of his career. Ask a Cowboys fan and they'll tell you: If he had the offensive line he had earlier in his career, his numbers would have been much higher.

Cam Newton had the best rookie season ever, throwing for 4,000 yards, with two 400 yard games.

Again - it's not a coincidence, in my opinion, that the best QBs in the league saw such a spike in production. So, we have to isolate the reasons best we can, and determine if they will carry on. I think the rule changes were the biggest reason, and those rules aren't going anywhere this year.

Edited by Concept Coop, 15 August 2012 - 08:13 AM.

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#43 David Yudkin

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:12 AM

I think what people are some how missing is that the stud QBs have been stud QBs for more than just last year. Here are the 3 year ppg averages for QBs. I suggest that those situations should be refined, but let's start with the raw data.
1	Cam Newton	26.682	Aaron Rodgers	26.123	Drew Brees	24.664	Tom Brady	23.085	Matt Stafford	21.826	Peyton Manning	21.617	Philip Rivers	20.908	Tony Romo	20.839	Roethlisberger	20.5210	Matt Schaub	20.0411	Eli Manning	20.0112	Kyle Orton	19.6113	Kurt Warner	18.8614	Matt Ryan	18.7915	David Garrard	18.3616	Michael Vick	18.0617	Jay Cutler	17.8018	Donovan McNabb	17.7019	Carson Palmer	17.1920	Josh Freeman	17.15
Looking at each one individually . . . 1 Cam Newton 26.68 Newton has only played one season, so he can't really have a three year track record. He scored so much last season base don the strength of his rushing TDs. Maybe he'll be different than all those other QBs that came before him, but the avergae drop off for QBs that had 10 or more rushing TDs in a season was all the way down to 3. I would suggest that Newton is a candidate to score a lot less this season than last. 2 Aaron Rodgers 26.12 He's done it year in and year out, and I don't see why anyone would suggest he won't be at or near the top again scoring wise (even if his stats dipped some). 3 Drew Brees 24.66 Brees has been a passing machine in NO. He's thrown 635 passes 4 of the past 5 years. He's finished the year ranked 1st or 2nd 4 times with the Saints. Unless people somehow feel that Bountygate is going to mess up the offense, I see no reason to expect that Brees won't be at or near the top again. 4 Tom Brady 23.08 Brady's numbers include his 2009 season when he was not fully recovered from his severe knee injury. The past two years, he's averged 26.19 fantasy points. Last year, the running game was so so and the defense was terrible. I don't see that really changing all that much this year. What has changed is the Pats desire to upgrade their receiving corps and adding their old OC. I see nothing to suggest that they will look to shift to a run heavy attack and instead see Brady with the greatest collective pool of receiving talent in his career. I would expect Brady's numbers to be in line with his 2007 and 2011 totals (496 and 462 fantasy points scored in those seasons). 5 Matt Stafford 21.82 Stafford hurled the ball 663 times last year in a season where the Lions had no healthy RB for more than a week at a time. I suggest that the Lions will run more and pass less, and that Lions skill position players are going too high (Stafford, Megatron, Pettigrew, Young, Burleson). Like Newton, I suspect he at this point should be viewed more of a one year wonder compared to the other big guns at QB. If he has another huge season this year I will become more of a believer. 6 Peyton Manning 21.61 Manning ranked so highly in 2010 because, he too, threw the ball an insane amount of the time (680 attempts). Read that again . . . 680 attempts. He's missed a few seasons, by his own words he has said he doesn't feel the same, he's moving teams, and it is a completely different situation (new coach, new personnel, new system, no Harrison or Wayne like he had over his career, outdoors vs. indoors, getting older, etc.). Manning may be ok, but I see far too many people looking at the best outcomes and very few people looking at the less positive ones. I suggest people split the difference and Manning is not as good as he used to be. Certainly that is opinion based. 7 Philip Rivers 20.90 Rivers is always good but seemingly not great for whatever reason. Even at this stage, his weekly average was 3-6 points lower than the top tier . . . and we are only down to QB7. Without V-Jax and Tolbert, that's a lot of receptions that left town (114). Maybe it will be easy to redistribute those, maybe Rivers does better in general, but again I think he is quite aways away from the top group. 8 Tony Romo 20.83 Romo is generally consistent and at times has fouled up at the worst possible times. If we exclude the game he got hurt early on in 2010, his ppg total actual jumps up to 22.35. IMO, he would be a decent taget for those opting not to snag a QB in the first 2 rounds. 9 Roethlisberger 20.52 Big Ben has been a fantasy enigma. Seemingly when he looks like he is about to be a consistent fantasy performer, the Steelers run way more. Or he gets hurt. Or he gets suspended. He's only played all 16 games once out of 8 seasons and his best ranking was 5th. More troubling though is that his career high in attempts is 513. Some folks may roll the dice on him that he can put it all toegether, the running game might not be as good, and the OL might be improved. But looking backwards, those things have been problematic. 10 Matt Schaub 20.04 Schaub is one of those guys that fantasy wise usually won't hurt you but similarly may not really help you. He's coming back from injury to a team that has now become a strong defensive team with a strong running game. Bottom line, HOU may not pass as much as they used to and they still rely mostly on AJ. 11 Eli Manning 20.01 Given how well Eli did last year and how low he ranks on this list, that to me shows that last year was a very big outlier. He's another one that I would peg as a guy that will come back to earth some. If you draft him and he produces like last year, you got yourself a gem. If he produces like he has the rest of his career, my guess would be you will be losing out at the QB spot most weeks. 12 Kyle Orton 19.61 13 Kurt Warner 18.86 Neither one is fantasy relevant. 14 Matt Ryan 18.79 Ryan would be my pick as on the verge of a major breakout season given the premise that the Falcons will be going more vertical and migrating away from the run. He would be an excellent target for the waiting on a QB crowd. 15 David Garrard 18.36 He's not the same guy that did fairly well in a couple of seasons, so I doubt he will do this well again. 16 Michael Vick 18.06 His ranking and ppg totals are skewed given that he didn't start in 2009. If we only include his past two seasons in PHI, he VAULTS up the rankings to 26.32 ppg. Maybe that puts too much emphasis on his 2010 season, but I would be inclined to stick him in or near that top elite QB tier. I agree that he is a bigger injury risk, but I expect him to score more than 1 TD this year. Given the point where you can draft him, I think he should be a coveted and targeted player in most leagues. I can live with him missing a few games, but others may not share that opinion. 17 Jay Cutler 17.80 Several folks have Cutler having a huge season in CHI this year for a number of reasons. I will take that under advisement and roster Cutler as an upside QB2, but I would not want to pin my hopes on him as my starter. 18 Donovan McNabb 17.70 Another fantasy Mr. Irrelevant. 19 Carson Palmer 17.19 He did well down the stretch in OAK, ranking in the Top 10-12 upon his return. But again, even if he were to repeat that performance level that is still far from the top guys. 20 Josh Freeman 17.15 Freeman was not very good last year. Maybe V-Jax will help him do better this season, but he looks like a QB2 to me. That is how things looked over the past 3 years. I agree that that was then and this is now and maybe guys not on the list emerge or the two rookies might be decent options. But in the main, I know that I DON'T want to get stuck with figuring out what to do if I don't get Rodgers / Brady / Brees / Vick / Romo / Ryan / Newton / Stafford. That's 8 guys, and since I play in 12, 14, and 16 team leagues that leaves more wholes than I want to care about. Yes, I am well aware that a proven strategy is to wait and wait and take several QBs and either play QBBC based on match up or hope one of those guys can be used as a weekly starter. I have done that many times. But in today's NFL, I think that strategy will get you only marginal fantasy QB numbers at the QB 10-12 level . . . which again is WAY south of the mark compared to the big boys. Bottom line, the guys going early in drafts as QBs are getting picked there because they are better than most other QBs. As long as they continue to produce at a better rate of production than the other options, IMO, they are worth considering and drafting very early (again with the caveat that all leagues are different and it depends on the scoring system, the starting positional requirements, the size of the league, etc.).
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#44 Concept Coop

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:21 AM

1 Cam Newton 26.68 Newton has only played one season, so he can't really have a three year track record. He scored so much last season base don the strength of his rushing TDs. Maybe he'll be different than all those other QBs that came before him, but the avergae drop off for QBs that had 10 or more rushing TDs in a season was all the way down to 3. I would suggest that Newton is a candidate to score a lot less this season than last.

I have to question you here. Using historic data to compare past QB performance to Cam Newton is illogical, in my opinion. I don't recall a QB in recent history that has been used as Cam was last season. Therefore, the historic data, while it applies to QBs in the NFL, doesn't apply to Cam Newton. If Aaron Rodgers started kicking field goals, would we compare his point total to that of past QBs that didn't kick field goals? No. We would still project the points he gets from field goals and understand that he will continue to score on pace, regardless of what past QBs did. The Panthers scored all but one of their goal line rushing TDs (inside the 5) on the exact same play. What incentive do that have to change that? Newton scored over 50% of those TDs, and kept the ball almost exactly 50% of the time. Unless you see that changing, a major dip in rushing TDs is not likely. Newton provided 150 VBD - one of the best fantasy QB seasons ever, as a rookie, throwing only 21 TDs. There is a lot of room for improvement in that area. I wouldn't be shocked with 27 TDs - would you?

Edited by Concept Coop, 15 August 2012 - 08:22 AM.

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#45 The Jerk

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:21 AM

I have also noticed that these threads always say wait on a QB as opposed to threads titled "Take a QB early." It's like these thread makers are fighting an urge to NOT take a QB early (or trying to convince themselves). Do whatever you want because it will take a team and waiver moves to win it all, anyhow.

I think a certain percentage of people who are FF veterans (as I am, 20+ years) remember leagues from the 90s and into the 2000s where the uninformed owners tended to overvalue QBs, especially early, with typically poorer results. I had considerable success in this era by loading up on RBs, WRs, and often the first TE off the board, then getting reasonable QB production later. I cannot remember drafting a QB in the first round until 2007, and not even selecting one before the 5th round in any other season up until then. I believe some owners who have a similar experience level and track record of success ascribe a large part of that success due to "waiting" on a QB. I don't. While technically I waited on a QB, I was always hunting value, even back then. At that time, due to too many QBs going early and/or not enough QBs warranting the early picks that they got in my leagues, I was choosing value. It just happened to be at RB or WR in the first round. Now, due to the changes in the NFL over the past decade AND also the changes in the approaches of my competitors, the value is at QB as often as at RB or WR, at least in my leagues. In the league I've been in since 1991, from 1996 forward we have selected draft slots for the next season based on prior year success. Not for everyone, I know, but fortunately, this league's scoring approach makes draft slot less valuable than the norm. Anyway, the early slots typically fill in first, and I have been in the top half of the league every season but two and in the top two in scoring half of the time, so I'm very familiar with drafting in the later half of the first round. And it is specifically from that location where drafting a worthy QB has made the most sense over the past five seasons.

#46 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:28 AM

Great stuff, DY. Agree on pretty much all of it. Mostly, I believe it emphasizes that every situation is different, and each need to be considered independently. Most of my drafts determine draft order right before the draft starts, and I candidly do not know exactly how I will go this year. I've been very vocal about seeing numbers come down to Earth, but I do see some value to selecting a QB early, especially in 6pt PaTD leagues.

#47 rickyg

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:29 AM

Apologies if I started a thread that has already been done I didn't realize, guys. And to the poster who said that it's almost as if the guys who post these wait on your qb threads are almost trying to convince themselves...as for me that is totally true! In fact, I was really in board with taking my qb in rd 1 or 2 this year, trying to lock up Rodgers, Brady, brees, stafford, or cam. But the more I mock drafted with that strategy, the more I realized that I was now following the herd with that strategy more than blazing my own path. I started to realize that it was only my overreaction to the enormous fantasy production at the qb position last year and that it wasn't sustainable this year. I decided that I want to TRY not to be sheep and overreact to last years numbers by jumping the gun early in a qb. I'd rather this year prove me wrong than follow the herd. It's the same thOught process that makes wall street mogul tons of money in the stock mkt. Rt now everyone is high on qbs, wrs, and tight ends. So ask yourself "how do I capitalize on that?". To me the answer is clear. If people at your draft are going heavy in those 3 positions in the first 2 rounds it will make my choice very easy I'm going the other way and stockpiling stud featured RBS
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#48 David Yudkin

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:30 AM

1 Cam Newton 26.68 Newton has only played one season, so he can't really have a three year track record. He scored so much last season base don the strength of his rushing TDs. Maybe he'll be different than all those other QBs that came before him, but the avergae drop off for QBs that had 10 or more rushing TDs in a season was all the way down to 3. I would suggest that Newton is a candidate to score a lot less this season than last.

I have to question you here. Using historic data to compare past QB performance to Cam Newton is illogical, in my opinion. I don't recall a QB in recent history that has been used as Cam was last season. Therefore, the historic data, while it applies to QBs in the NFL, doesn't apply to Cam Newton. If Aaron Rodgers started kicking field goals, would we compare his point total to that of past QBs that didn't kick field goals? No. We would still project the points he gets from field goals and understand that he will continue to score on pace, regardless of what past QBs did. The Panthers scored all but one of their goal line rushing TDs (inside the 5) on the exact same play. What incentive do that have to change that? Newton scored over 50% of those TDs, and kept the ball almost exactly 50% of the time. Unless you see that changing, a major dip in rushing TDs is not logical. Newton provided 150 VBD - one of the best fantasy QB seasons ever, as a rookie, throwing only 21 TDs. There is a lot of room for improvement in that area. I wouldn't be shocked with 27 TDs - would you?

The same can be argued from the opposite side. If the opposition can take that play away . . . then what? I expect teams that had very little defensive preparation time in general to be much more educated and aware what Newton can do. We already saw that in practice last year. Newton's ppg averages in 4 game blocks: 30.4, 27.3, 25.9, 24.1. I agree that he could improve on his own. One think I find entertaining about the Shark Pool is a huge majority of people think players by divine intervention will do better than the year before. 2011 could also have been his career year. At this point, we just really don't know. That's why they play the games.
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#49 hotboyz

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:30 AM

The point everyone is missing is in general stud QB maintain there Studliness while RBs Half the top 10 will be different you draft QB for there consistency

#50 -jb-

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Posted 15 August 2012 - 08:33 AM

The point everyone is missing is in general stud QB maintain there Studliness while RBs Half the top 10 will be different you draft QB for there consistency

It's been discussed, and there is some value to it.




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