Instinctive
Footballguy
As with RB/WR, these are things I discovered with my projections that I didn't necessarily expect. When I go in, I know that I'm high on a guy, or I "think Matt Ryan is undervalued." But sometimes I find actually working out numbers in context and such without bias leads me to conclusions I had not thought of, like perhaps I like Matt Ryan, but the guy I really like is Tony Romo, and I hadn't realized it. When I call a guy out as my "QB4 or QB7" or the like, please know that my DD has a scoring system with -.25 for inc passes, =.25 for completions, 1/30 yards, 6 pt TDs, and -3 for INTs.
RB Thread
Here we go!
1. The big three QBs are REALLY big – I have them at more than double the VBD of any other QB.
I’m not even sure why. Brees is the only one I have projected at a ton of yardage, Brady is the only one with a ton of TDs (41), and Rodgers is better than all the other QBs, but not dramatically so, until you add in the 300 or so rush yards he gets on a yearly basis…
Anyway, I was not considering a QB in the first (1.09) but after all of my projections are done, I traded up to 1.06 to make sure I get one of the big 3, Calvin, Foster, or Rice. I know this isn’t earth shattering, but I didn’t see the gap as being THAT huge between these three guys and all the others. Apparently, I think it is.
2. The biggest value plays appear, to me, to be Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and Philip Rivers. A lot of people are down on Rivers, but I’m just not sure why. His yardage and TDs weren’t bad last season, he just had a ton of picks. It appears as though many of them were flukey, and I would not at all be surprised to see him as QB5, and not that far behind the top 3.
I do love Matt Ryan. I knew that going in, and it was interesting to find that he’s actually my QB4, not just a guy I see as undervalued. I think that his ypa improvement remains (so his ypa is about the same as last season, but a little bit better) and his TDs go up. A couple of little factors, and the numbers I end up with put him in the top 5.
Romo also ended up in my top 5. Pretty much everything I projected is at his career rates as a healthy player. I also see resurgence for Miles Austin and have Dez in the top 15, so this one makes a lot of sense. I suppose I’m just high on the Cowboys passing offense.
Result: All three 5th round ADP “R” QBs look like good 4th round picks to me. If I don’t have one of the big 3 QBs, I’m hoping I can go Calvin/TE/WR/one of these guys and then hit RB hard with some of the value plays I found, detailed in my RB thread of this same name.
3. Eli Manning appears to be the safe pick – Projection: 327/528, 4171 yards, 28/16
Those numbers actually seem a bit low to me when I look back at them, but I also don’t see much at Eli’s disposal after Nicks and Cruz (who I think comes back down a bit this year). I think this projection (what I think will happen) is closer to his floor than his ceiling, especially given his near 5k last season. If I get stuck without a Big 3 and then somehow miss out on the three “R” guys above, I want to make sure I get Eli.
Result: QB10 – but very very close to my QBs 8 and 9 (Newton and Vick)
4. Joe Flacco appears to be getting overlooked – Projection: 304/510, 3652 yards, 23/12
These aren’t world beater numbers, but they place Flacco as one of the best backup QBs to get, and give him potential for those who like to try QBBC. He’s right with Carson Palmer in my projections, and if I get an “R” QB or even Vick, I want Flacco or Palmer as my backup. Flacco has Torrey Smith at his disposal deep and throws a good deep ball. Boldin is losing steps, but can still be useful. Dickson and Pitta are talented, and Rice is always there as well.
Result: QB16, and I may be adjusting Roeth, which would push Flacco up another spot to QB15.
I don't want this to turn into a QB strategy thread, but I really want to get one of those big 3. Massive VBD difference over the other guys, and outdoing the top RBs as well. TE thread might be up tomorrow, but I also travel and draft, so you all may have to wait for the weekend. TE thread will have less substance anyway.
RB Thread
Here we go!
1. The big three QBs are REALLY big – I have them at more than double the VBD of any other QB.
I’m not even sure why. Brees is the only one I have projected at a ton of yardage, Brady is the only one with a ton of TDs (41), and Rodgers is better than all the other QBs, but not dramatically so, until you add in the 300 or so rush yards he gets on a yearly basis…
Anyway, I was not considering a QB in the first (1.09) but after all of my projections are done, I traded up to 1.06 to make sure I get one of the big 3, Calvin, Foster, or Rice. I know this isn’t earth shattering, but I didn’t see the gap as being THAT huge between these three guys and all the others. Apparently, I think it is.
2. The biggest value plays appear, to me, to be Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and Philip Rivers. A lot of people are down on Rivers, but I’m just not sure why. His yardage and TDs weren’t bad last season, he just had a ton of picks. It appears as though many of them were flukey, and I would not at all be surprised to see him as QB5, and not that far behind the top 3.
I do love Matt Ryan. I knew that going in, and it was interesting to find that he’s actually my QB4, not just a guy I see as undervalued. I think that his ypa improvement remains (so his ypa is about the same as last season, but a little bit better) and his TDs go up. A couple of little factors, and the numbers I end up with put him in the top 5.
Romo also ended up in my top 5. Pretty much everything I projected is at his career rates as a healthy player. I also see resurgence for Miles Austin and have Dez in the top 15, so this one makes a lot of sense. I suppose I’m just high on the Cowboys passing offense.
Result: All three 5th round ADP “R” QBs look like good 4th round picks to me. If I don’t have one of the big 3 QBs, I’m hoping I can go Calvin/TE/WR/one of these guys and then hit RB hard with some of the value plays I found, detailed in my RB thread of this same name.
3. Eli Manning appears to be the safe pick – Projection: 327/528, 4171 yards, 28/16
Those numbers actually seem a bit low to me when I look back at them, but I also don’t see much at Eli’s disposal after Nicks and Cruz (who I think comes back down a bit this year). I think this projection (what I think will happen) is closer to his floor than his ceiling, especially given his near 5k last season. If I get stuck without a Big 3 and then somehow miss out on the three “R” guys above, I want to make sure I get Eli.
Result: QB10 – but very very close to my QBs 8 and 9 (Newton and Vick)
4. Joe Flacco appears to be getting overlooked – Projection: 304/510, 3652 yards, 23/12
These aren’t world beater numbers, but they place Flacco as one of the best backup QBs to get, and give him potential for those who like to try QBBC. He’s right with Carson Palmer in my projections, and if I get an “R” QB or even Vick, I want Flacco or Palmer as my backup. Flacco has Torrey Smith at his disposal deep and throws a good deep ball. Boldin is losing steps, but can still be useful. Dickson and Pitta are talented, and Rice is always there as well.
Result: QB16, and I may be adjusting Roeth, which would push Flacco up another spot to QB15.
I don't want this to turn into a QB strategy thread, but I really want to get one of those big 3. Massive VBD difference over the other guys, and outdoing the top RBs as well. TE thread might be up tomorrow, but I also travel and draft, so you all may have to wait for the weekend. TE thread will have less substance anyway.
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oes it worry you any that you're predicting the "big 3" to essentially repeat what happened last year (i.e. stand head and shoulders above the rest of the QB crowd)? I'm not saying it can't happen, or even suggesting that you shouldn't trust your projections (I like your process, by the way), I'm just wondering if it worries you at all that normally players in the top tier shuffle in and out from year to year. Does that tempt you to re-assess your projections?
