thank you. This is better than the last post which was deleted. You have valid points, and I think people are "buying high".A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line) not likely to line up perfectly as it did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
Not too many naysayers with the exorbitant ADPs.Do you give any credence to the idea that defenses will be better prepared for the Pats this year?When Brady goes off the first few games, then all the naysayers will keep quiet.
They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.I like your insight lhucks but I respectfully disagree. The Pats will continue to do what they've always done, and that is light opposing defenses.
Regression to the mean is a valid argument but part of the issue is predicated on what "last year" produced. The variables are simply too much ('new' OC, different RB stable, arguably a different WR stable, even an altered OL group) to determine how much of a regression happens and even what the mean may end up as. Is the mean league average? A 3 year average of Brady's stats? A 5 year average? An average of McDaniel's 3 years as OC?I don't know if I'd necessarily call it a perfect storm last year. Maybe in terms of a reliance on the passing game to keep up/win games but that offense has been riding Brady's arm since 2005 really. Granted, they probably won't throw it 60% of the play calls over the course of a season like last year but they do generally end up in the 54-57% range leaning towards the pass. Also keep in mind that McDaniels loves the use of screens so that will skew things a bit in terms of being 'designed' run plays done through the air.I'm not sold on defenses adjusting until it happens. This type of argument comes up often and usually gets proven 4-5 years later if that. More often than not, it's teams moving away from said scheme offensively that nullifies it more than anything (see the R&S in the early 90's dwindling to just Atlanta by 1994 or the Wildcat being used improperly by teams jumping on the bandwagon). Belichick is one of the best at altering calls and schemes during the actual games on Sundays so I wouldn't put too much weight on any arguments about defenses adjusting. If anything, Belichick has looked ahead if that scenario occurs by bringing in guys like Brandon Lloyd and turning towards RBs who can hit the hole quicker and have the ability to get big plays on the ground.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line) not likely to line up perfectly as it did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
What experts do you speak of???Dodds, MT, Henry, and Wood all have the passing game about 10% off last years numbers. Are you saying the passing attack will be below 4400 yards?Given the talent in NE maybe they will progress to their capabilities?I somewhat agree with point two, however the scoreboard has never impacted the pressure to the gas pedal.Defenses can adjust to last year, this year you have Lloyd and Gaffney giving a whole new wrinkle.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line) not likely to line up perfectly as it did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
Year 2007 down?They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.I like your insight lhucks but I respectfully disagree. The Pats will continue to do what they've always done, and that is light opposing defenses.
I don't think it matters right now.The Patriots, when healthy, have too many weapons for the defense to stop them all. Belichick will game plan to go where the defense is not.Not too many naysayers with the exorbitant ADPs.Do you give any credence to the idea that defenses will be better prepared for the Pats this year?When Brady goes off the first few games, then all the naysayers will keep quiet.
The fact is, they haven't played a game that counted. So sure, get on your soap box and wave your flags for the pending apocalypse.Just to clarify, no matter what happens in the preseason, good or bad, I would still say the preseason games don't matter. So the Pats offense will be the same in the regular season even if they throw 20 INTs in the preseason or 80 TD in the preseason.But since you brought it up, it the his last 3 seasons where Brady was healthy (2007, 2010, 2011), he accounted for 52, 37, and 42 TD. He threw for more yardage, but that was really the only thing out of the ordinary. But lots of guys threw for more yards, so it's not like his season was so out of bounds for QBs last season.They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.I like your insight lhucks but I respectfully disagree. The Pats will continue to do what they've always done, and that is light opposing defenses.
I call shennanigans on the favorite target part. That was based one half of football when Welker wasn't even playing. That was also based on Greg Bedard's comments . . . who was a Packers beat writer and has not covered the Pats.Hernandez could be criminally underrated, especially with reports that he has emerged as bradys favorite target this summer.
Good point...nice job fellas.Dodds, MT, Henry, and Wood all have the passing game about 10% off last years numbers.
To be clear, this is not based on the preseason. This is based on a new distinct set of circumstances.The fact is, they haven't played a game that counted. So sure, get on your soap box and wave your flags for the pending apocalypse.They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.I like your insight lhucks but I respectfully disagree. The Pats will continue to do what they've always done, and that is light opposing defenses.
Nice to see an unbiased viewpoint checking in.Living in New England I have seen all the kool aid drinkers and the "Belichik is god/ in Bill we trust" diatribe over the years. But this year I think the O line is a huge problem. In all preseason games Brady is getting hit from up the middle. Normally the only teams that can do it have special front fives. Brady can always pick a blitz apart but he has problems with a straight hard rush up the middle ( every stand up pocket passer does) This preseason it seems like he is getting no time and has to reset his feet. I don't like what I am seeing with the O line.
That seems fair. But there were other reports earlier in the offseason about hernandez, back when everyone was focused on the lloyd hype. I think the pats mostly used that first half to see what ridley could do, and I don't take a lot from it except that ridley looked like he can do a little bit of everything. But hernandez did look pretty good.I call shennanigans on the favorite target part. That was based one half of football when Welker wasn't even playing. That was also based on Greg Bedard's comments . . . who was a Packers beat writer and has not covered the Pats.Hernandez could be criminally underrated, especially with reports that he has emerged as bradys favorite target this summer.
Ummm... Didn't they do the same thing two years ago?They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.I like your insight lhucks but I respectfully disagree. The Pats will continue to do what they've always done, and that is light opposing defenses.
A) Can be said about any top performing player/unit, so meh.B) I think the OL is a fair point but I'm curious why you think the running game will be stronger(with an OL you are calling suspect) and why you think the defense will be appreciably better? The RB's don't look stronger to me and the DB's still seem suspect. Didn't they actually lose their best pass rushers from last year?C) TE is a tough position to defend, but more than that Hernandez doesn't just line up at TE. He can line up in the backfield, he can line up out wide. Even if some defenses "solve" defending two TE's Hernandez is versatile enough to line up somewhere else. No matter how you slice and dice it the defense needs to defend Gronk, Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd all at the same time. You can't bracket cover everyone. Also, the big three(Gronk/Hernandez/Welker) are all capable of doing damage within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and running after the catch which could mask some of their OL problems imo. I realize there are plenty of Patriot fans on the board and I'm no expert on the Patriots but it has always seemed to me that their OL has performed as a unit above the talent level of each individual player. Other than the OL being slightly worse I just don't see many substantiated reasons NE is going to slowed down on offense.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
I liked your overvalued/undervalued threads but this one is totally without meritA) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
Funny you should say that, I would bet the farm on the Pat/Saints/Lions passing yards UNDER from 2010 numbers.A) Can be said about any top performing player/unit, so meh.A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
LINK?I don't see how this is breaking any new ground. Most people have already said as much, but...welcome late to the party.
Sums it up for me. Don't see 4 1k receivers but I'm buying Brady for 5k upside.No way Lloyd, Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk all live up to their ADPs unless Tom Brady is far and away the #1 overall player this year. But overall, the Pats offense will be just fine.
2011- 513 points, 6848 yards (3rd and 2nd, respectively)2010- 518 points, 5820 yards (1st and 8th)2009- 427 points, 6327 yards (6th and 3rd)2008- 410 points, 5847 yards (8th and 3rd - with Cassel under center)2007- 589 points, 6580 yards (1st and 1st)It's true that the 6848 yards was a high-water mark for the franchise, but it was their third time in the last five years over 6300. The 513 points they scored actually represented just their third best total from the last 5 years. Their average over that 5-year span was 6284 yards and 491 points. Throw the Cassel season out of the mix and their average jumps to 6394 yards and 512 points. What they did last year was hardly unprecedented for them- in fact, they've got a far better track record of production than anyone else in the league. Even the Saints can't match it- New Orleans has been throwing up ridiculous yardage totals, but its offense has never really produced points like New England's has over the last 5 years.They had never done what they did last year.I'm not saying the wheels are going to fall off, I'm saying they are overvalued.I like your insight lhucks but I respectfully disagree. The Pats will continue to do what they've always done, and that is light opposing defenses.
In LHUCKS's world, disagreeing with him is proof of bias, and agreeing with him is proof of the absence of bias. I'd say he's biased towards thinking anyone who agrees with him is unbiased, but he agrees with himself, so clearly he cannot possibly be biased, thanks to the "anyone who agrees with LHUCKS is unbiased" rule.Nice to see an unbiased viewpoint checking in.Living in New England I have seen all the kool aid drinkers and the "Belichik is god/ in Bill we trust" diatribe over the years. But this year I think the O line is a huge problem. In all preseason games Brady is getting hit from up the middle. Normally the only teams that can do it have special front fives. Brady can always pick a blitz apart but he has problems with a straight hard rush up the middle ( every stand up pocket passer does) This preseason it seems like he is getting no time and has to reset his feet. I don't like what I am seeing with the O line.![]()
A) I'm not sure the "mean" is relevant because the mean for the Pats likely will move upwards with the addition of Lloyd, and a very much improved rund defense (which is perfect in their division).B) I can't comment. Not sure what is meant.C) Saying it is a LOT different than actually doing it. How exaclty does a team "adjust" to the mismatch that is Gronk or multiple weapins used in a way that you are forced to defend every blade of grass on the field? I mean, it sounds legit, but how do teams "adjust" Calvin, brees, Gronk, Brady, Peterson, Rodgers, etc? Sometimes they don't. Plus, the Pats are a team that kinda invites you to "adjust". They give you a whole year stuffing a system down your throat ad naseum. Then teams spend all off-season planning for it and then the Pats come back and show you something totally different. Run it to detah. Then Bomb you with Moss. Then quick slants. Then TEs..I think they throw darts and then send out a memo. "This year is a running year guys!"A) Regression to the mean. B) Perfect storm last year (no running game and no defense and perfect O-Line.) All of those factors are not likely to line up perfectly as they did last year.C) Defenses adjust to 2 Tightend sets and mismatches.![]()
Agree. At least one of the WR/TE will be a bust. The question is which one? I would think in terms of probability of bust, Welker is the highest, followed by Gronkowski, Lloyd and Hernandez, but Lloyd's ADP is climbing to a point where he may be more risky than Gronkowski at his ADP.Brady will be the only one who is almost a lock for production that justifies his ADP. I can't see him going under 4600-37-14. I have him for 5000-40-12, with a couple of rushing TDs. I don't see how anyone is going to stop them. Now the OL is a concern, but the Pats will figure that out.No way Lloyd, Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk all live up to their ADPs unless Tom Brady is far and away the #1 overall player this year. But overall, the Pats offense will be just fine.
The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate. I am not going to revisit stuff we discussed at length in other threads all over again, but coupled with the pourous defense, the unproven ground game, the addition of McDaniels (who was OC in 2007), the addition of the deep ball AND RB screens . . . and I think Brady's numbers will rival 2007 and 2011.As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
I think that's a good point. My arguments for decreased TDs.A) Better RBs/more rushing TDsB) I throw out the Randy Moss yearsC) Defenses adapt to 2 TE setsD) Brady is oldE) OL likely to be less effectivecollectively these factors make me think we'll see a down year in passing TD production.The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate.As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
Consensus fbg projections4700 and 37You're talking 6% higher on the yardage and 3% higher on the TDs. I don't consider that "overrated" territory, more along the lines of margin of error.Basically this would be like saying Foster is overrated at 2000 and 15 when you project him at 1880 and 14.5.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
If you really belive this why don't you have him closer to 30 TDs? Your projection is pretty much on par with the consensus.'LHUCKS said:I think that's a good point. My arguments for decreased TDs.A) Better RBs/more rushing TDsB) I throw out the Randy Moss yearsC) Defenses adapt to 2 TE setsD) Brady is oldE) OL likely to be less effectivecollectively these factors make me think we'll see a down year in passing TD production.'David Yudkin said:The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
Brady's ADP is #5 overall. I'm not comparing him to FBG projections. "Value" is essentially determined by ADP.Consensus fbg projections4700 and 37You're talking 6% higher on the yardage and 3% higher on the TDs. I don't consider that "overrated" territory, more along the lines of margin of error.Basically this would be like saying Foster is overrated at 2000 and 15 when you project him at 1880 and 14.5.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
A) pure speculation on your part. We have nothing to stake a claim that this group is better, and we CERTAINLY have nothing to show that they are going to get in the end zone more. We also have nothing to go on that suggests they are going to run more often either.B) you mean the Randy Moss year. He had very little to do with 2010 and nothing at all to do with 2011.C) not sure what this has to do with anything. The Pats rarely ran 2 TE sets. They used Hernandez as a WR like 3/4 of the time last year. But let's say they did have 2 down TE sets. That's why they added Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth, the deep ball, and RB screens . . . just in case the league somehow shuts down Hernandez and Gronk (cause, you know, the NFL has done such a good doing that so far).D) So Brady went from the year he had last year . . . to just plain old? Brees will be 34 during the season this year . . . so HE MUST start taking a hit on his production next year when he turns 35, right?E) I don't get this one either. The Pats have never had an OL filled with blue chippers. By the time the sesaon starts, the only change will be Light retiring, and he was starting to loook long in the tooth. The real issue right now is Mankins, Koppen, and Vollmer are all out of shape, coming back from injuries, and haven't practiced in months. That's it. I would be really surprised if Waters doesn't show up next week. All they need is some sea legs and a little practice and I see no reason why the OL won't be any different than last year. If your assertion is they are hurt, won't get better, or will get reinjured, obviously any OL would be a concern if the starting OL never got on the field.'LHUCKS said:I think that's a good point. My arguments for decreased TDs.A) Better RBs/more rushing TDsB) I throw out the Randy Moss yearsC) Defenses adapt to 2 TE setsD) Brady is oldE) OL likely to be less effectivecollectively these factors make me think we'll see a down year in passing TD production.'David Yudkin said:The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
A) You seriously think Ridley/Vereen are that good? They're unproven.B) why? Sure Moss is the best WR Brady has had, but this is the best collection of WRs/TEs Brady has ever had.C) How? You think Gronkowski or Hernandez will be covered by a nickel corner? If they overadpt, look for Lloyd to have a career year and Welker to catch another 110 or so passes. The key about the 2TE sets are that you can't figure out if they will run or pass. Remember that NE has two elite TEs, a WR that is a tailor fit in Welker, and now they add a good deep ball WR in Lloyd. You can't effectively cover it all.D) Who cares? Has Brady shown any signs of deterioration of skill? Not that I have seen.E) Now this is the key concern.I respect your opinion LHUCKS, but these factors are either irrelevant or you're cherry-picking to back up your point. BTW, 4400 and 36 is pretty good numbers, to me it's Brady's floor. His ceiling is record breaking numbers.'LHUCKS said:I think that's a good point. My arguments for decreased TDs.A) Better RBs/more rushing TDsB) I throw out the Randy Moss yearsC) Defenses adapt to 2 TE setsD) Brady is oldE) OL likely to be less effectivecollectively these factors make me think we'll see a down year in passing TD production.'David Yudkin said:The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
Last year in the 3rd preseason game the Lions drilled Brady over and over again, it worked out pretty well last year.'metoo said:I'm avoiding Gronk regardless at his adp. Teams can be conservative in the preseason but your franchise QB getting drilled is NEVER part of the plan. Lately, I feel the Patriots have drafted reactive to the previous season.
Let's make a gentleman's bet. I will take Brady as the #5 pick overall. I will give you the field . . . THE ENTIRE NFL (excluding Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Rodgers . . . the 4 guys getting picked in front of Brady). The bet is who has a higher VBD score on the season. Brady (for me) vs. the rest of the NFL less those 4 guys (for you).Brady's ADP is #5 overall. I'm not comparing him to FBG projections. "Value" is essentially determined by ADP.Consensus fbg projections4700 and 37You're talking 6% higher on the yardage and 3% higher on the TDs. I don't consider that "overrated" territory, more along the lines of margin of error.Basically this would be like saying Foster is overrated at 2000 and 15 when you project him at 1880 and 14.5.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
'LHUCKS said:I think that's a good point. My arguments for decreased TDs.'David Yudkin said:The last 3 fully healthy seasons Brady for 52, 37, and 42 TD. I guess I am missing why this year would be the lowest TD total since he had top flight receiving options and was healthy. He has the best collective set of receivers he's ever had, and I don't even think that part is really open for debate.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.
A) Better RBs/more rushing TDs - I can agree some what with this but it isn't like the Law Firm had no touchdowns the last 2 years.
B) I throw out the Randy Moss years - This is the dumbest thing I have ever heard of, you can't throw out years because it hurts your argument
C) Defenses adapt to 2 TE sets - and the Pats are really known for not being able to adapt, this is almost as bad as the reason above.
D) Brady is old - He was pretty old last year too, by the way how did Farve look at this age and older, or Warner?
E) OL likely to be less effective - this is about the only legit concern there is, however the Pats have always been good at adjusting on the fly so I feel like they could overcome this.
collectively these factors make me think we'll see a down year in passing TD production.
Let's make a gentleman's bet. I will take Brady as the #5 pick overall. I will give you the field . . . THE ENTIRE NFL (excluding Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Rodgers . . . the 4 guys getting picked in front of Brady). The bet is who has a higher VBD score on the season. Brady (for me) vs. the rest of the NFL less those 4 guys (for you).Brady's ADP is #5 overall. I'm not comparing him to FBG projections. "Value" is essentially determined by ADP.Consensus fbg projections4700 and 37You're talking 6% higher on the yardage and 3% higher on the TDs. I don't consider that "overrated" territory, more along the lines of margin of error.Basically this would be like saying Foster is overrated at 2000 and 15 when you project him at 1880 and 14.5.'LHUCKS said:As stated in one of my overvalued threads, I still have Brady projected for 4400 and 36.